By: Chris Crawford on 2010-03-02
Can you guys believe its March? We are under the hundred hour countdown to games that mean absolutely nothing, but theyre still fun to watch.
The kids who are not only trying to play in those meaning less games, but get paid to do so -- are starting to make there moves. Kartson Whitson was though of as a top ten high school arm, and has done nothing to slow down that sentiment. Whitson may be moving into the top five prep arm category, and with this collection of preps, it is no small praise.
In other news, the chat that was scheduled for tonight is going to be pushed back til Friday, Jason is in the final stages of getting the handbook done, and the first wave of orders should be sent out. I've gotten a sneak peak at some of ths stuff, and it's really good stuff, a high recommend from me....
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-02-25
We remember that year in Seattle, don't we? We were hoping and praying that one the bats would make it to the M's where they ultimately selected reliever Josh Fields.
Not that we didn't realize it then, but it's even more clear today -- those classes don't come around too often. Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham, Brett Wallace, Yonder Alonso, among others, went in the first round in 2008.
This year's class is deeper than it was a year ago when it comes to college hitters, starting with two lefty sticks with power.
Don't forget about the Prospect Chat on Tuesday, March 2, and the Podcast on Thursday, March 4....
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By: Chris Crawford on 2010-02-24
It has seemed to be a foregone conclusion since Bryce Harper showed up on the cover of Sports Illustrated that he would be first pick in the 2010 MLB Draft.
Jameson Tallion is doing his very best to make the decision more interesting.
Tallion has long been considered one of the best arms in the draft, but as Jason Churchill writes up in
todays draft blog, there is growing sentiment that Tallion deserves every consideration to be considered a contender for first-pick status. Recently, Tallion was clocked at between 94-99, and pitched well in both of his all-star games this past summer. It would still seem that a talent like Harper would be picked first, but if the demands get nuts or the concerns of his position grow -- dont be suprised if Jameson Tallion's name gets some play.
While neither Harper nor Tallion have zero to negative three-percent chance of lasting to the M's, a name that could come into play is
In case you missed it, Jason was on KGA in Spokane and on KJR Seattle with softy yesterday and ESPN 71...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-02-21
This year's draft hype is Bryce Harper, a 17-year-old catcher at College of Southern Nevada who left high school before his junior year, got his GED and became draft eligible.
He's a left-handed hitter with big raw power, and if he sticks at catcher is certain to be a tremendous value to the club that drafts him. And no, I'm not assuming he goes 1-1 to the Nationals, because there are some pretty major concerns with Harper.
Personally, I don't think he's going to catch, and I'm certainly not the first to doubt that aspect of Harper's value. He may grow out of the position by adding 25 or 30 pounds to his already 6-foot-4, 205-pound frame, which may eat up too much of his athleticism. Aside from Matt Weiters and Joe Mauer, name a tall catcher who is good defensively.
But to make sure, Harper is likely to start his pro career as a catcher, and will get every opportunity to remain there -- which is the right move, of course.
But he's also playing some third base this year, which is the next spot I'd try him at; then RF, then 1B. His arm is well above average, perhaps a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale in terms of strength, and has already made ajustments at the plate, designed to help him make contact versus bigger fastballs as well as use the whole field on a more regular basis.
In the video below, taken this past Thursday and Friday at his home ballpark, you'll see Harper taking BP, and then lining an opposite-field double that hit the wall af...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-02-17
I'm planning on asking these same talent evaluators in six weeks if they got answers to any of their major questions, but this is certainly something I wanted to share.
I asked as many scout types as I could get a hold of this month what, in their opinions, the Mariners should be most concerned about, besides the obvious answer of keeping their key players healthy.
The responses were extremely vast.
"They have tons of holes," said one rival scout. "But there is so much run-prevention there that they will be a pest for everyone.
"They might score four runs a night if they are lucky, but they'll probably lead the league in ERA again, too. Felix is ridiculous -- and there's no chance he's done developing; think about how good he might be if he makes another jump like that.
"They'll make good contact and run with Ichiro and Figgins, but you can get them by pounding their other three starters and forcing them to score runs -- second or third wave (of scoring) isn't going to happen a lot for them.
"How many wins? I'd be surprised if they weren't over .500, but I still think the Angels are the team to beat. They've taken a step back and Seattle one or two forward but I don't think it's quite enough unless they get more offense out of Griffey or Franklin (Gutierrez)... or Kotchman."
"Can I plead the fifth or something? I just got hired and don't want to say anything stupid about my own employer."
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-02-07
We're certainly into the dog days of the winter when it comes to player acquisitions, although considering the fact that Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Delgado and other big names have yet to find home, we'll probably see some more in the coming days leading up to spring training. But the Mariners are probably done adding impact talent for the rest of ... month.
Yes, I said 'month.' I think there's a good chance the M's get serious in trade talks during the Cactus League schedule, with Jose Lopez and/or involving a start pitcher or two, but until then, this may a good place to presume they are done until the pre-season begins.
So while I don't have any additional rumors to share, nor do I have any breakdowns or analysis coming just yet, I thought I'd take this time to catch everyone up on where we're headed between now and March.
Pitchers and catchers report in less than two weeks and the rest of the clan less than a week later, which, for me, means taking the thousands of words of prospect files and putting them in order for the 2009-2010 Dual Handbook.
The tentative release date remains March 1, but depending on how much time I find to spend on the construction, it could be sent out early, if anything.
This year's handbook will be a bit pared down as far as what goes in it. But here's a rough draft of the table of contents.
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By: Chris Crawford on 2010-02-04
UPDATE All done, with a mutual option for 2011. Mutual options are almost exclusively not picked up -- but maybe if he pitches well and loves Seattle there's a chance. Not too much to hate about this, folks.
UPDATE: FoxSports.com's Jon Morosi is tweeting the same thing: Bedard and the M's are closing in on a one-year deal.
Despite what Larry Larue wrote today, Erik Bedard is indeed close to signing a one year deal with the Seattle Mariners.
Obviously, this is a one-year deal, with the majority of the funds being tied to start-based incentives. Considering Bedard has basically pitched half a season the last two years, this obviously makes sense.
There are few that can deny how good Erik Bedard is when he's healthy. Every respected pitching statistic worth a darn tells you that. The problem is that he's healthy so rarely, and has shown nothing in his career to say he can pitch every fifth day. The reports are that Bedard is looking to return in May, which, according to Churchill, is probably too optimistic. The All-star break is a safer expectation.
The comments are all going to say Felix/Lee/Bedard, but lets be honest, the chances of Bedard pitching in October are pretty low.
Here's hoping I'm wrong....
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By: Chris Crawford on 2010-02-01
With the addition of Ryan Garko, the M's lineup -- particularly against left-handed pitching -- has improved, but has also brought about numerous questions.
Youre going to see Garko more than likely play 1B and DH vs lefties, which would mean you would have a bench of backup catcher, Hannahan, Griffey, and Langerhans.
I think it's fairly obvious what the problem with that is.
I've seen some people mention the possibility of breaking camp with eleven pitchers, and that Jack Zduriencik alluded to an eleven man staff being a legitimate option.
While I believe an eleven man staff is ideal, I'll believe the Mariners carry said staff when I see it. The M's will not have the luxury of not needing a 5th starter like they have had in April's past, and we see so many cases of dead-arm or injuries that it almost seems improbable to not break with 12 pitchers. I really hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it very much.
The roster is better, but it certainly seems like another move is coming via the trade route, major or minor....
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By: Chris Crawford on 2010-01-29
According to Shannon Drayer, the M's have signed Eric Byrnes to a one year deal.
It seems likely he wont be paid much more than the league minimum.
Byrnes was a 3 to 4 WAR player until an injury plagued poor 2009.
This probably puts an end to the position player additions, minus a Jose Lopez trade -- but this is a good addition, especially at the cost.
Little harm in giving Byrnes a try to regain former glory, and at very worst is a decent OF who can steal bases.
...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2010-01-29
As everyone is well aware, the Mariners didn't get Ben Sheets. It's looking more and more likely that if Seattle wants to gain a decent middle of the rotation starter, its going to have to go the trade route.
A little while ago, there was some speculation that Seattle was debating internally about adding Francisco Liriano. Liriano of course showed enormous potential early on -- and then unfortunately has battled injuries and a lack of command to some less than stellar results.
Despite the lack of sucess, Liriano is an interesting risk. He won't turn 27 til October, and still has a plus fastball a slider and change. It's also important to keep in mind that it's the second year after his Tommy John surgery. It generally takes that second year of recovery before you see a pitcher's command and velocity come back to near the levels prior to the surgery.
If Liriano is going to come back to a top-end starter, it's going to be this year. He has been pitching very well in the Dominican League, and if the cost isn't crippling hes an interesting idea.
The option that hasn't been discussed -- at least not at great lengths -- is Fausto Carmona. Currently there are reports that the Indians might be thinking of signing Orlando Hudson, and would need to clear salary in order to do that. Carmona, like Liriano, was not very good in terms of superficial stats (wins, ERA), but a lot of his sucess or lack there of was due to a ridiculously high BABIP despite having a...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2010-01-27
Joel Sherman is reporting that Randy Winn has agreed to a one-year deal with the New York Yankees for around $2 million. With an outfield of Winn, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner, this all but shuts the door on Johnny Damon returning to the Evil Empire.
It's probably time for the Mariners to open said door.
Damon is not an ideal fit. He is another left handed hitter in a lineup full of them, though he isn't incompetent vs left-hand pitching (.776 OPS). His power numbers may have been inflated playing in the softball field that is the new Yankee Stadium, but he wasn't bad on the road either (.795 OPS). A lot of people have made a big deal out of his arm, and yes -- its one of the worst among outfielders, and he had easily his worst UZR (-9.2) of his career.
But Damon is too good of a hitter for the Mariners to say no to now, if the asking price really is the $5 million dollar range. If the Mariners can get 140 games out of Damon's bat, playing mostly DH with some LF, the M's can probably expect to add around two and a half to three wins to the roster.
The M's aren't good enough right now to say no to that. Not with what's left on the market....
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By: Chris Crawford on 2010-01-26
If you close your eyes and clear your mind of all thoughts (not hard for me) you might be able to hear a fungo bat. Spring Training is getting really, really close -- and it's getting pretty intense.
A couple of weeks ago, I posted the major moves made by the AL west, to go along with their CHONE 2010 projected Wins Above Replacement. If they did not have a CHONE projection, I went with what they produced last year.
A lot has changed since the post -- but it still illustrates how good the M's off-season has been.
Oakland Athletics:
Coming: Coco Crisp (1.6), Jake Fox(1.7), Aaron Miles (-0.3),Kevin Kouzmanoff (2.0) Ben Sheets (2.7 from the fangraphs fans) TOTAL: 7.7 wins
Going: Nomar Garciaparra (0.9), Bobby Crosby (0.4), Jeff Gray (0.2),Scott Hairson (0.6) TOTAL: 2.1 wins
Limbo: Adam Kennedy 0.8 wins
Summary: It's not quiet anymore. If the Athletics can find a way to score runs, this could be the sleeper team in the AL West. You're still asking an awful lot out of young pitching and while Sheets is potentially an ace, hes potentially a $10 million dollar landfill, too.
Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim
Coming: Hideki Matsui (1.1), Fernando Rodney (0.3), Joel Pineiro (3.4 fangraphs fans)TOTAL: 4.8 wins
Going: Chone Figgins (3.2), John Lackey (3.8), Kelvim Escobar (1.3) Darren Oliver (1.5 last year, it should be right around the same thi...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-01-26
UPDATE 10:44 AM: Jon Heyman is reporting its actually $10 million with $3.5 in potential bonuses.
So,Ben Sheets picks Oakland, since they ended up offering more dough than anyone else -- one year, $10 million. It was at least $3.5 more than Seattle was willing to go, and I was told $6.5 was the second-highest number discussed, though I'm not sure it was officially offered, nor am I sure it was Seattle that spoke of that number. I have a feeling it was Texas.
I am not sure why Sheets would pass on a chance to pitch in the postseason, but I was chatting with Keith Law and he makes a good point. Maybe Sheets, coming off the year away and elbow surgery, prefers not to pitch in October, when pitcher do tend to wear down.
This cannot surprise any of us, however, and should not disappoint us that much. Would have been nice, but $8 million blows payroll and if Jack Zduriencik can make a trade for a Francisco Liriano or Aaron Harang, or a pitcher we've yet to talk about that is at least solid mid-rotation worthy without paying him $8 million for 2010, that's what we should prefer anyway.
But the addition of Sheets makes Oakland a lot like the Mariners. Built around run prevention, Oakland makes the AL West a four-team race if Sheets is healthy enough.
What else could be next for Seattle? In addition to the Liriano, Harang, Ricky Nolasco and Orlando Hudson ideas, there...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2010-01-24
As Jason tweeted here, the Ben Sheets race may be coming to its climax, and it may be a dramatic affair.
The Cubs, once believed to be the frontrunners, have put Sheets on the backburner, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. The L.A. Dodgers went with Vicente Padilla, the L.A. Angels went with Joel Pineiro and Milwaukee signed Doug Davis. All three are believed to be out of cash to the level Sheets is asking.
Boston is not believed to be as interested as the Mets and Mariners, and the Astros may need Sheets to give them a big time home state discount.
Texas is the wildcard here. The ownership situation is getting ironed out and they really could use another high-quality starting pitcher to go with Rich Harden and their kids.
If the money is available, the Rangers could be the favorites. They have the need, are closest to his home state of Louisiana and is where he spent most of last spring and summer rehabbing from flexor tendon surgery that took place last February.
One has to wonder, however, whether he'd rather pitch in a ballpark where his numbers would help him get a bigger deal next winter rather than in Arlington, where even good pitchers have posted poor ERA results.
If I had to handicap the race, I'd call it even between the Rangers, Mets and Mariners. This is getting really interesting, because if Sheets is even 80 percent of his old self, he's a...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2010-01-21
The payroll is starting to become a bit more clear with more information coming out seemingly by the hour (Brandon League, Bill Hall, some starting pitcher named after a cat clock)-- so we've updated it as close to perfection as possible -- and you guys can check that out right here. Since Dustin Ackley is signed to a big league contract, we added his pro rated bonus and guaranteed salary, as well as Milton Bradley's pro-rated bonus.
Edit: We have confirmation from Geoff Baker that Gutierrez will in fact be making $2 million dollars next year, so you can add $3 million in flexibility potential.
NOTE: Bradley's total payroll figure is in doubt as well, since his "signing bonus" shouldn't just naturally be transferred unless that was specifically part of the trade and the money that exchanged hands -- which I do not believe was included. So there is a good chance that Bradley's figure is $9 million, not the $10.33, so keep that in mind, too, when studying the payroll sheet.
Now, onto Ben Sheets. we talked yesterday about how the M's scout liked what he saw in Sheets, who threw for teams Tuesday in Louisiana. Churchill has tracked down more eyes that were in attendance, and subscribers can check that out right here.
Not all of those loved what they saw, by the way.
Not a subscriber yet? Tis easy -- join...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-01-20
The Seattle Mariners were one of between 10 and 15 teams that watched right-hander Ben Sheets throw on Tuesday -- video here, courtesy of MLB.com -- and M's scout John Stearns was quoted with this little nugget:
"I was impressed. Ben was free and easy, throwing the ball really well with not too much effort. He had good velocity. I was especially impressed with his curve ball. He's got a plus Major League curve ball with a lot of depth to it."
Sheets sat in the 90-91 range, topping out at 92 with the not-so-special curve ball, but it may take a little time to shake off the rust for the bite on the breaking ball, especially since the less-than-TJ-style elbow surgery he had impacts that directly.
Just the fact that the M's were there confirms some level of interest, but whether the M's will be able and willing to go to the $8-10 million mark -- some saying "at least $10 million," even -- in guaranteed money, plus a player option is something I just don't know, but I also don't see Seattle doing.
Perhaps the lower edge of the guaranteed scale might work (though still it may be too rich, and not a smart move) but the player option is the kicker for me.
Anyway, it seems they aren't signing Jarrod Washburn until they know Sheets isn't an option. Maybe now they know -- one way or the other....
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-01-20
One of the more interesting and critical aspects of building a roster is the utilization of funds allocated to payroll. We do a lot of rosterbation in the blogosphere -- it's fun, I agree -- but one of the things we don't have is a place to go to keep tabs on the payroll.
So I have created a payroll tab that we can update as figures become public, including the latest extension and arbitration figures.
As of today, David Aardsma, Felix Hernandez and Mark Lowe's salaries have been updated, though the salary of Franklin Gutierrez for 2010 remains unknown. If you read a reliable source's report of useful salary information, please email the site and we'll make the adjustment.
For now, we're assuming Gutierrez's 2010 salary is scaled down and will escalate accordingly during his four-year pact, and we'll wait to hear more definitive figures on Felix to make any assumptions at all.
Moving on --
Haven't heard anything new on the Jarrod Washburn front, but here's my official take:
I don't like it, really, unless it's an incredibly cheap endeavor for the team. Sure, Washburn is a nice presence to have in the clubhouse, but that isn't worth $5 million more than Doug Fister, Jason Vargas or Luke French.
For those that are saying Washburn is worth a similar salary for 2010 are probably putting too much stoc...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-01-19
With word swirling that the Seattle Mariners and King Felix Hernandez have agreed to terms, as first reported by ESPN's Keith Law, lets push past the terms of the deal -- which I have been told could be four years guaranteed with more than one vesting option year, possible one mutual option year after vesting option, or a five-year guarantee with similar options, plus incentives that would bring the total value of the contract well over $100 million -- and talk about what this means for the Hometown Nine.
Edit: Most reports out now are saying it's a five-year deal worth just south of $78 million guaranteed. Francisco Blavia is reporting there is no option for a sixth year, vesting, mutual or otherwise, so it'd be difficult to imagine the incentives pushing it very far over $100 million, if it gets that far.
First of all, it means for the first time since Ken Griffey, Jr. signed an extension, the M's have kept a budding star in their organization beyond his six years of club control. Alex Rodriguez didn't get that far, and several others -- Adam Jones, for instance -- were never given the chance.
Second, if the contract does reach t...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2010-01-18
There is some talk right now that the Mariners may be in negotations to bring back Jarrod Washburn.
As we find out more --and we assuredly will -- Prospect Insider will report anything susbstanial we hear.
In the mean time, it makes sense -- depending on the terms. Washburn for a year at 5 million or so would provide more stability at the back end of the rotation and put less pressure on Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell.
It's not ideal, and I would much prefer the team press hard for Sheets or go the trade route, but he's a better option then Jon Garland or the years it would take for Joel Pineiro.
What do you guys think about bringing Washburn back? Gab away!...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2010-01-14
There has been a lot of talk lately about how great the Mariner's off-season has been -- numerous websites and shows ranking it the best. If you believe the CHONE projections, the current roster is worth right around 88 to 92 wins, with around 15 to 20 percent of those wins coming from additions the past three months.
The best part of this is? They're not done. We can't post a single thread without someone asking a question about Ben Sheets, so here's the latest:
He's throwing for teams on Tuesday at his alma mater UL-Lafayette and there are several teams interested, with the Cubs showing the most interest, but Seattle has not been named. Tim Kurkjian had a report that said watch out for Seattle, but this is almost completely just based on Zduriencik and Sheet's previous relationship. It's possible the M's jump in on Sheets after seeing him throw, but theres not a lot of sizzle to the steak of acquiring him right now.
The other big news was the 'farewell' report about Russell Branyan. Maybe Branyan makes less sense than he did before the Kotchman deal, but as a DH option Branyan still would have value to the current club. There's been talk about Ryan Garko as well, and if Garko can play in the outfield he would make a lot of sense. The general consensus is he can not though. Some of the other names you may hear connected and might make sense depending on cost are Marcus Thames, Xavier Nady and Johnny Gomes -- the M's wont over pay for any of these names....
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-01-11
If joined us for today's chat, joined us late, or missed us altogether, you can catch the entire replay below.
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-01-09
The winter moves may seem over and done with, but let me assure you, they are not.
In fact, there's a chance, though it's unlikely, that two more impact players could be added to the M's roster between now and the end of spring training, and the route in which they'd be arriving could be by way of free agency or trade.
Subscribers can catch the details right here, and catch what I have dug up on the starting pitching market and how the M's may choose to add that arm, what the Mariners have in store for payroll and what they think of the second-base market.
If you are not yet a subscriber, Click Here to become one and gain access to any and all premium content, which will soon include juicy pieces of the dual handbook....
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By: Chris Crawford on 2010-01-07
Can you believe there is only five weeks til spring training? Time flies when you have a competent general manager.
With real baseball ever so close, I decided to put together a list of what the four teams in the AL West have added and lost through free agency and trades. Obviously, this doesn't tell the whole story -- what with prospects and injuries and what have you -- but it does give you a look into what the divisions going to look like next year, and it gave me a new found appreciation of what Zduriencik has really done.
In parenthesis next to the players you will find the CHONE projections of said players WAR for 2010 if available. If not available, I went with the fan projections from fangraphs.com, and if those weren't available, I took their WAR from the previous year.
Oakland Athletics:
Coming: Coco Crisp (1.6), Jake Fox(1.7), Aaron Miles (-0.3) TOTAL: 3.0
Going: Nomar Garciaparra (0.9), Bobby Crosby (0.4), Jeff Gray (0.2) TOTAL: 1.5
Limbo: Adam Kennedy 0.8 wins
Summary: It's quiet out here, tooooooooooo quiet. The resigning of Justin Duscherer (to trade him later, book it and thank me later) is really the only thing worth mentioning. Theyre going to win games because of their pitching, but this off-season has been fairly inconspicuous.
Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim
Coming: Hideki Matsui (1.1), Fernando Rodney (0.3)TOTAL: 1.4...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2010-01-05
UPDATE 8:05 PM: Prospect Insider has learned that one of the minor leaguers -- if there is more than one -- is a catcher, likely from a short-season club. I have confirmed that it's not a certain group of backstops, and it's not Steve Baron or Trevor Coleman, either. That leaves us with the following possibilities:
Israel Nunez
Hassiel Jimenez
Henry Contreras
Carlton Tanabe
Mario Flores
Ariel Sanchez
Ivan Brea
Franklin Diaz
Larry Gonzalez
The best prospect of the bunch is Hassiel Jimenez -- he's really the ONLY prospect in the group. So perhaps he's the prospect headed to Boston in the trade for Kotchman.
-- Jason A. Churchill
UPDATE 1:35 PM: ESPN's Buster Olney reports via 710 ESPN Seattle that he has not heard anything about cash coming to Seattle in the trade, and since Kotchman's salary is uncertain -- due to his arbitration status -- it would be unlikely that money would be involved.
This, if true, makes this a bad trade
Prospect Insider has learned that the Mariners are on the verge of acquiring Casey Kotchman from the Boston Red Sox.
No word on what the trade actually is -- hearing it's just one prospect going to Boston -- but Kotchman is arbitration eligible after making just under $3 million in 2009, so maybe some cash is involved as well.
Adding Kotchman doesn't mean no Adam LaRoche or Russell Branyan, especially if Milton Bradley is going to play some outfield, whic...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2010-01-02
Jack Zduriencik has made it clear he wants another starting pitcher, among a few bats to sprinkle into the lineup. The free agent market isn't necessarily full of options, and most clubs just aren't trading pitching right now unless it's a salary dump.
But there are options, so lets take a look at them, discuss them and what it would take to acquire each, and what it would mean to the rest of the roster and the finances remaining.
Ben Sheets
Sheets, IMO, is the best bet of the group of injury-prone starters on the market this season (Harden, Penny, Bedard) and took all of last year off after non-TJ surgery on his elbow.
He's not likely to get three-year offers from anyone and he might be worth two guaranteed, as long as the team isn't guaranteeing a large salary. Make him earn it and two years isn't too many.
He's a No. 2 caliber starter when healthy. I have heard rumblings that Sheets doesn't want to pitch in Seattle, however, mostly due to the early and late-season weather, though he experienced similar climates in Milwaukee.
Texas is still the favorite at this point, but they don't have a lot of money to spend.
Dan Haren, Francisco Liriano, Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco
Seattle has inquired about everybody, wisely. Check in and see, you never know. But lets break down this group one by one.
Haren isn't going anywhere this winter. He was one of the top few starters in the NL last year, isn't making tons of...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2009-12-28
As Jason mentioned, there's a pretty big lull for the holidays. From the fan perspective, a lull isn't too big of deal when you acquire a 5 WAR starter, get rid of something useless for something useful (Silva, Bradley) and make a..oh, lets call it controversial trade for a set-up man and toolsy prospect. But at the heart of it all we're still fans, and we will seemingly always demand action.
There are still a lot of pieces on the market, which is somewhat of a rarity as most of the big fish are gone before the new year. And despite the signing of Chone Figgins in addition to the Bradley and Lee deals, the M's still have some money to play with.
Here's a list of some of the more prominent names out there -- not necessarily a list of who they're interested in.
SP
Joel Piniero
Erik Bedard
Ben Sheets
Jon Garland
Aroldis Chapman
Doug Davis
Jarrod Washburn
John Smoltz
Pedro Martinez
1B/DH/LF
Jim Thome
Carlos Delgado
Adam Laroche
Russell Branyan
Vlad Guerrero
Jermaine Dye
Jason Bay
Matt Holliday
Xavier Nady
2B/3B
Adrian Beltre
Felipe Lopez
Miguel Tejada
Orlando Hudson
Juan Uribe
SS/CF/RF/RP
No one worth mentioning cause the M's aren't signing anyone at this position. In fact, I tried to make a list and Jason threatened to make me write a report on the chalk they use for the foul lines. Okay, not really. He threatened to beat me up.
S...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-12-28
Not a lot going on during the holiday stretch, but the M's did re-sign RHP Chad Cordero to a minor league contract and brought in switch-hitting catcher Josh Bard on a minor league deal, too.
No risk on either player, and if Cordero's second year off shoulder surgery is one that allows more velocity, he might help the big-league bullpen.
He sat high 80s for the most part late last summer, but was typically in the low 90s pre-surgery. He did show good control and there was movement on his fastball and a sign that his breaking ball was on its way back.
Bard could serve as insurance in case Rob Johnson's surgeries hinder his work this spring and force the club to leave him behind in Arizona for a few extra weeks, or if rookie Adam Moore proves that he needs a little more time.
Plus, it's a necessity to start spring with at least three capable catchers.
...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-12-24
Wanted to take this opportunity to wish everyone -- even the detractors -- a Happy Holidays. Please be safe, and if you get in trouble and are in the Seattle area, call me, I'll drive you home. Seriously.I also wanted to thank everyone for a tremendous 2009. 15 months ago, Prospect Insider was dead and gone and I had no intentions of reviving it from it's lifeless sleep. For those who are new, 2008 sucked for me personally, but I received more than 400 e-mails from readers and friends of the site that contained words of encouragement, advice, and appreciation for Prospect Insider.
Many of them, and all of them as a whole, brought me to tears more than once. Thank you for realizing that I'm not a jackass, I just play one online.
Then when it became time to re-design the site and get it going, many of you jumped in and made donations. Without all of them the site wouldn't be what it is today, and my life would be very different, and not positively.
I can't thank you all enough.
I also want to make sure I thank -- out loud -- once specific reader that has become dear to PI. He knows who he is. Without his generosity, I'm not sure PI is standing today, and I'm not sure I'm sitting where I am as I type this out. Thanks, M.M., I owe you...
The site has come a long ways in a year. We've broken and r...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-12-23
The trade to send right-hander Brandon Morrow to Toronto for Brandon League and prospect Johermyn Chavez is expected to be announced today. You'll find a ton of analysis on League, and his numbers are easy to decipher, since he's a big leaguer and everyone has seen him.But to help fill in the gaps on Chavez, subscribers can check out my scouting report on the outfielder by CLICKING HERE.
If you are not yet a subscriber, CLICK HERE and follow the easy instructions.
One thing to add: For those that thought this trade was connected to the three-way for Lee and Halladay, I'm with you on that sentiment. It makes too much sense and ultimately means that instead of two GMs having made bad trades (Amaro for Lee, Zduriencik for Morrow) the world is right again.
In that sense, we should probably avoid criticizing this particularly trade on its own, because it's not a good one. But as a whole, like some of you have pointed out in past threads, it's Morrow, Aumont, Gillies and Ramirez for Cliff Lee, Brandon League and Johermyn Chavez.
We should still be doing cartwheels....
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-12-21
UPDATE/ 10:56 AM: Jordan Bastian of MLB.com is tweeting that it's not a pitcher but outfielder Jerhomyn Chavez coming to Seattle in the trade. He's 21 next month, has raw power, but strikes out a ton and his work ethic has been questioned in the past. Sounds like Wlad Balentien 2.0. Stands 6-foot-3, 226 pounds as of last spring. Been playing primarily right field due to a plus arm.
If it's Morrow for League and Chavez only, I don't like it.
UPDATE/8:47 AM: Rosenthal updated his story last night to say that the prospect coming back to Seattle is probably a pitcher. If it's truly a prospect and not a young big-league arm, scratch Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil and Marc Rzepczynski off the list, as he's surpassed the widely accepted rookie status point to qualify as a minor league prospect.
Cecil, Romero, Brad Mills and Rzepczynski -- If it's one of those...
I've only seen Cecil, Romero and Mills on video, but I did see Rzepczynski in Tacoma in June or July.
Cecil sits 89-93 with a 2-seam fastball with good sink and life, a slider and improving command of everything. He's had some success inducing ground balls, but did not do so in his big-league stint last season, despite flashes of being more than useful. Not a No. 1, probably not a No. 2 either, but could slide into the middle of a decent rotation and be valuable for the next five years. His ultimate value depen...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2009-12-21
We have learned that even after the trade that sent right-hander Carlos Silva and $9 million to the Chicago Cubs for Milton Bradley, the M's have options with Bradley.
Subscribers can read about those options here
If you aren't a subscriber, you can of course change that by signing up here...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2009-12-19
In the span of about a week, the Mariners have transformed from a team with holes capable of a winning record, to a team with holes that's arguably the favorite to win the AL West.
Never the less, there are still holes. Unless the M's are comfortable with Carp at 1st and Brandon Morrow and Ian Snell in the back of the rotation, one or two transactions are going to have to be made.
Jason and I get a lot of questions about available players, so here's a compilation of targets the M's could be interested in, and some why/why nots they could wear blue and teal.
1B/DH/LF
Russell Branyan
Wants two guaranteed years, but hasn't received a multi-year offer from anyone and may not sign until January. The New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners and Arizona Diamondbacks have made contact.
Adam LaRoche
Initial asking price is outrageous -- three years, $10 million per season -- will have to come down for any team to get serious on him. Atlanta isn't showing a lot of interest but he'll have many of the same suitors as Branyan, including the Mariners, adding the Athletics to the list, too.
Luke Scott
I think with Milton Bradley in town and the fact that Scott has played all of 10 games at first in his entire career -- all in 2009 -- doesn't make him ideal.
Jack Cust
There's interest on both sides, but post-Bradley, he doesn't make a lot of sense unless Brad...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-12-18
While all fans of Seattle Mariners baseball should be loving the moves this winter and should be giving general manager Jack Zduriencik tons of credit for being patient, wise and having a plan, backup plan, second backup plan, and putting people around him that can help him make the plan reality, I think we're forgetting something -- especially me.
I have been as critical as anyone of the upper management of the M's organization -- Chuck Armstrong, Howard Lincoln and the ownership group -- for interfering, being cheap when it mattered most despite spending tons of money overall, and for being afraid to admit a mistake -- Bill Bavasi -- before that mistake set the franchise back even further.
I've ripped them for things they have said, things they have done, money they have spent, money they have not spent, and general business practices, such as replying to a letter from a season-ticket holder with an irrefutable holier-than-thou attitude.
But just over one year ago all of the above "suits" did their homework, hired Jack Zduriencik and have handed him a payroll, the keys to the player-personnel department and the results have been nothing short of remarkable.
Granted, the Mariners have won nothing yet, and 85 wins is nothing to do cartwheels over, but following a 100-loss campaign the club appears to be skyrocketing toward a perennial winner, starting right now.
Lincoln, Armstrong and the ownership group all deserve an enormous amount of cre...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-12-18
UPDATE: According to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, via Twitter, "Cubs getting $9 million from Seattle, so Mariners wind up paying them $6 million plus Silva when salaries offset."
Jayson Stark clears this up for us: "Of that ($9 million) amount, $3 million is to even out the difference between Silva's salary in 2010 and Bradley's salary. The other $6 million constitutes payroll relief for the Cubs and will be paid out in part in 2010 and in part in 2011."
Larry Stone is reporting this morning via Twitter that the Seattle Mariners will trade right-hander Carlos Silva to the Chicago Cubs for outfielder Milton Bradley.
It's a good move, almost no matter what the details of the trade may be, but one would imagine there would be some cash exchanging hands here, too.
Bradley, a productive player, is owed $21 million through 2011. Silva, not a productive player, is owed $25 million guaranteed over the same span when you factor in his 2012 buyout.
This move was not connected to the Mariners learning Nick Johnson was signing with the Yankees and the club's decision not to play ball with Scott Boras on Johnny Damon.
Bradley could serve as a DH, left fielder, or both. There is reason to believe, despite a poor 2009 season in which Bradley slugged .397, that he's still got some hitting left in him at the a...
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By: PositivePaul on 2009-12-16
Both Larry Stone and Shannon Drayer are reporting the trade is official. Just as Jason first reported and confirmed on Monday at around 1:00, Mariners get Cliff Lee for Tyson Gillies, J.C. Ramirez, and Phillippe Aumont.
Pretty good return on your investment, eh subscribers?
- Discuss (152)
By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-12-15
Lee-Halladay trade details
With the official completion of the companion trades that sent three Seattle Mariners prospects to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for left-hander Cliff Lee, let's take a look at what the Mariners gave up for Lee, and what the Phillies got in return.Tyson Gillies, CF
Gillies is a burner on the bases and in center field, and uses his speed to his advantage at every opportunity. He bats from the left side with a good swing and approach, but is often too aggressive on pitches out of the zone.
He has been known to bunt a little too often, but his on-base skills are solid and he's improved his contact rates as he's progressed through the system. He will use his 80 speed to steal some bases, but he has a lot to learn about reading a pitcher's moves and getting good jumps.
Gillies, 21, projects as an above-average defender in center field and has a plus throwing arm relative to the position. He gets adequate jumps, but most of his range comes from his speed and quickness. His routes could use work, too, but he's so fast that he still gets to most everything.
The Canadian-born Gillies is legally def, which has yet to present many problems for him at this stage, and he's always adapted...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2009-12-11
UPDATE: 8:11 PM: Let me clear up the Amount situation
Jason will have complete analysis of the deal once it is official.
UPDATE: 2:11 PM: Moving along with details...
UPDATE: 1:23 PM: Some details on the three-way
UPDATE: 12:49 PM: Rumored pieces in three-way..
UPDATE: 12:05 PM: M's in three-way?
UPDATE: 11:58 AM: Lackey, Matsui both off table for M's
UPDATE: 9:27 AM: Lackey off the board?
UPDATE: 1:28 PM: M's looking at another starter -- not Sheets or Lackey
UPDATE: 11:50 AM: Bay, Lackey update
Well, the winter meetings have come and gone, and lots of interesting things went on. It looked like Seattle had a starting pitcher locked up, only to see him go to one of their rivals. There were a ton of rumors, some that have come to fruition, some that obviously didn't.
If you missed a...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2009-12-12
It's official -- Ryan Langerhans will not be offered arbitration by the Mariners, making him a free agent.
It's possible that Seattle can still negotiate with Langerhans, but they'll have to compete with others for his services -- at a price hopefully more suitable for his role.
The signing of Corey Patterson doomed Langerhans (though Patterson is far from a shoe-in to make the team), and the versatility of Bill Hall and Chone Figgins allows for depth in the outfield.
I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Langerhans brought back, but he's far from a necessity.
...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2009-12-10
UPDATE 6:55 PM: With the winter meetings over, I thought it prudent for everyone to see what kind of comings and goings we've seen in the off season, and I'm assuming that the Mike Lowell deal does come to fruition.
A's: Lost: Bobby Crosby, Justin Duscherer, Nomar Garciaparra, Adam Kennedy. Gained: Jake Fox, Aaron Miles
Angels:: Lost: Chone Figgins, Vlad Guerrero, John Lackey, Darren Oliver, Kelvim Escobar, Robb Quinlan Gained: nothing substantial
Mariners: Lost: Miguel Batista, Endy Chavez, Adrian Beltre, Erik Bedard, Russell Branyan, Mike Sweeney Gained: Chone Figgins, Ambassador Griffey Jr.
Rangers: Lost: Joaquin Benoit, Hank Blalock, Marlon Byrd, Eddie Guardado, Andruw Jones, Ivan Rodriguez, Omar Visquel, Kevin Millwood, Max Ramirez Gained: Chris Ray, Rich Harden, Mike Lowell
Clearly the big losers are the Angels, and you could argue the Rangers are the winners so far, but lets also keep in mind that everything acquired has a gigantic red flag sticking out of their....team hat.
UPDATE: 1:38 PM: Churchill on Rule 5 AAA Engles:
UPDATE: 12:00 PM: M's battling NL club for top starter
UPDATE: 11:54 AM: Cubs close to signing M's target
UPDATE: 11:14 AM: Full Story - Comments (106)
By: Chris Crawford on 2009-12-09
UPDATE 7:04 PM: Patterson provides options
UPDATE 6:08 PM:Geoff Baker says the Mariners have signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training.
UPDATE 5:43 PM: Why not Harden?
UPDATE 5:30 PM: Mariners-Blue Jays-Angels
UPDATE: 4:30 Updated the gained-loss for the Rangers, their off seasons starting to look a little more complete than everyone else.
UPDATE 3:50 PM: What's next...
UPDATE 2:55 PM: O's hurting M's?
UPDATE: 2:45 PM: Drayer is backing off her story, as we get more, we'll let you know.
UPDATE 2:35 PM: Or are they?
UPDATE 2:05 PM: M's close with... ?
UPDATE 1:45 PM: M's Payroll 2010
UPDATE 1:03 PM: Latest on Johnson
UPDATE 12:...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2009-12-08
UPDATE: 3:30 PM: The Most likely addition for M's is..
UPDATE: 4:19 PM: Teams still frenzied about at 7 PM eastern. Could get some good words tonight on potential deals.
UPDATE: 3:30 PM: LFs not being targeted
UPDATE: 2:43 PM: Rumor round up
UPDATE: 12:53 PM: M's interested in hurt hurler?
UPDATE: 12:19 PM: Swisher, Matsui, Damon... Seattle interest?
UPDATE: 11:15 AM: M's make HUGE non-trade for Jackson, Granderson
UPDATE: 10:42 AM: Churchill: Granderson deal will get done. Medicals being exchanged, terms close or already agreed to.
UPDATE: 10:25 AM: Matsui, Thome, Branyan
UPDATE: 10:05 AM: Yankees-Arizona-Detroit three-way forces M's to step up talks with...?
UPDATE: 9:32 AM: M's looking at 2B options?
Day one of the winter meetings is generally not a...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2009-12-07
It's day one of the Winter Meetings... are you paying attention?
Subscribers can get Day One coverage by by clicking here.
If you are not a subscriber, you change that by clicking here.
UPDATE 4:00 PM: Washburn out of options, possible return?
UPDATE 4:00 PM: More Felix...good news or bad?
UPDATE 4:00 PM: Mariners talking to NL Central?
UPDATE 2:45 PM: Rays in on Roy?
UPDATE 1:51 PM: Mariners negotiating with Detroit?
UPDATE 1:45 PM: The King counters the 45 million dollar offer
UPDATE 1:17 PM: Mariners with more money to spend on Lackey, Bay, et al?
UPDATE 1:17 PM: Mariners with more money to spend on Lackey, Bay, et al?
UPDATE 12:57 PM: Mariners in...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2009-12-05
Lots of people with a lot of different takes on the Chone Figgins potential signing.
Keith Law says the deal has its caveats (career high in walks, 20 scale power)-- but that he is still a lock for .350 plus OBP and solid defense for less money than most thought he'd command.
Geoff Baker likes the move, but still feels the Mariners have to acquire a power hitting right handed bat.
Dave Cameron at USSMariner loves that the deal adds versatility, and the organizational shift away from overvaluing power and placing a value on good players rather than a format.
Larry Stone notes that the signing not only makes the M's better, but potentially weakens the Angels.
All very interesting, none really mention the fact that half a decade of a guy relying on speed being dangerous, but thought it was interesting to get some different opinions.
...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2009-12-04
Programming note: Next week's winter meetings coverage will be truncated for non-subscribers, so if you want the best of it, Subscribe Now.
UPDATE:6:54 PM: Jayson Stark is now reporting that Figgins' deal could include a vesting FIFTH year to bring the total dollar amount to 45 million.
UPDATE: Jayson Stark is reporting that while the deal is close, the 4 year 36 million dollar benchmark may not be accurate. Shannon Drayer is tweeting that the deal is "all but done", but may not be announced today.
As first reported by Ken Rosenthal, and followed by a tweet from our fearless leader Jason Churchill, the Mariners are close to a 4 year deal with Chone Figgins for around 36 million.
There are things that Figgins does very well. He has shown the ability to play multiple positions, and his UZR at third last year was fantastic, as everyone is well aware of. He runs extremely well, and has plus on base skills.
There are things to be aware of, however. To say that last year was a career year for Figgins in terms of walks is an understatement. If we are expecting 101 walks again, we are in for a disappointment. There is little to no power from his bat, relying on his speed for almost all of his extra-base hits.
It's a decent signing...but there are caveats to it. It could be a deal we regret come years 2012 and 2013....
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-12-04
With the winter meetings mere days away, the M's could get a jump on things by inking Gregg Zaun as early as Friday afternoon. Many sources are reporting today that Zaun was close to a decision last night, suggesting that an announcement could be made today.
Update: Zaun is taking a physical today -- he's already made his choice. Seattle, Milwaukee, Tampa or Colorado.
There's nothing else to report on the John Lackey and Jason Bay interest, but for those of you on the Chone Figgins wagon, here's a blow to your "right price" dream.
Placido Polanco signed for 3 years and $18 million as a 34-year-old inferior player to Figgins. You think there is a chance in hell Figgins settles for anything less than four years at $9 million per? No way, and I would not be shocked to see a team attach a 5th year into the pact and for the annual salary to look down on $9 mil.
Too many suitors out there -- Giants, Mets, Cardinals, Cubs, Twins, Angels...
Programming note: Next week's winter meetings coverage will be truncated for non-subscribers, so if you want the best of it, Subscribe Now.
...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2009-12-03
We've all seen the reports from Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Marosi of the Mariner's pushing hard to sign Rich Harden to an incentive based deal.
Now, Geoff Baker is reporting that the M's are making a "concerted effort" to bring LF Jason Bay into the fold.
The Canadians would join Michael Saunders, Tyson Gillies and, of course, Baker as Canadian staples of the organizations.
What is going to happen next? Will the outfield measurements be changed from feet to meters?
Will the team change its name from Mariner's to Marinuers? Or maybe the Alouettes or Rough Riders?
Will Mike Blowers stop asking for rally fries, and start asking for gravy fries?
Will Don Cherry start sitting in the both with Dave Sims? And will Cherry attack Sims after tiring of hearing "that's playable?"
These are serious questions to be asked, and we can only hope that our beat-writer from the north can help bring some clarity to this potential earth-shattering transformation.
In all seriousness, Bay is an unlikely add because of both the pick and the below-average defense, but this was a fun way to spin it, I thought....
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By: Chris Crawford on 2009-12-01
UPDATE:** According to Shannon Drayer, the Mariners have offered Adrian Beltre arbitration, but declined on Eric Bedard or any of the other free-agents.**
The Mariners have until 11:59 pm EST today to make arbitration offers to their free agents, and be eligible to receive compensation for the potential losses of Eric Bedard and Adrian Beltre. Both Beltre and Bedard are B compensation players, and would net the team supplemental draft picks for their loss.
The decision to offer Beltre arbitration is not an easy one. If he were to accept the offer, Beltre would eat a substantial amount of the remaining budget and is coming off a pretty disappointing year at the plate, but offering him is the correct decision. Beltre is still one of the best defensive third basemen in all of baseball, and is still well above a league average bat at the position.
(Note: Jason also completely disagrees with the beat writers who think he would accept arbitration, and believes there is little to no shot Beltre is coming back.
As for Bedard, I would be somewhat stunned to see an arbitration offer. It's unfortunate, but at this point Bedard is simply a reclamation project. Any deal made is going to have to be incentive based and the raise he would be due just doesn't make fiscal or baseball sense.
The M's also have to make the decision on whether or not they will offer Branyan arbitration. Though it wouldn't net the team any compensation, if the Mariners do not offe...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-30
I don't often talk about retired players here, but Edgar Martinez has a chance to become the first Seattle Mariners player indicted into the Hall of Fame.
He'd not only be the first, he'd be a home-grown edition, too, and since Ken Griffey, Jr. and Randy Johnson aren't done playing, Edgar may beat them both to Cooperstown.
But I envision all three going in, although I was on the fence with Edgar until recently.
He doesn't have 500 home runs or 3,000 hits, and never played plus defense at any position, though I dreamt one night that Edgar won a Gold Glove at DH. But he was undoubtedly among the best few hitters in the game over a 10-12 year period, and that ought to be enough.
I have asked Geoff Baker in the past about what he thought about Martinez's chances, and Baker said, at the time anyway, that he'd vote for him. Remember, Baker isn't a homer, he was in Toronto when Edgar was playing, not here in Seattle.
I also asked a small group of beat writers from the midwest and east coast, and only one said he probably wouldn't vote for Martinez. That's 5 for and one against, and the one against was not a strong NO.
Keith Law wrote this morning about Edgar's candidacy, as well as some others, such as Roberto Alomar and Barry Larkin, but here's an excerpt on The Edgar:
We should absolutely discount his statistics based on his inability to play a position, but even for a DH, Edgar was outstanding. He spent his whole career in good...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-29
It's just about deadline time in Major League Baseball -- for teams to offer arbitration to their free agents, that is. Some of the more interesting decision will come in Toronto, Los Angeles and in New York, as well as here in Seattle.
Will the Blue Jays calls the bluff of the Boston Red Sox and offer arbitration to Marco Scutaro? The Jays have John McDonald and Alex Gonzalez and clearly have no needs at second base where Aaron Hill is coming off a big season. Offering would simply be about what new GM Alex Anthopolous can get in return for Scutaro -- either in trade if the player accepts, or in the form of drafts picks if Scutaro signs elsewhere.
With Jack Wilson signed, Scutaro has no home in Seattle, not if he's offered arbitration, anyway. I can't see the Mariners surrendering the No. 17 pick in next June's draft for Scutaro to play second base for 1-2 years.
The Dodgers are thought to be leaning heavily toward declining to offer arbitration to Orlando Hudson, which could make the veteran second baseman an option in Seattle. He's a capable defender -- yet overrated by many after some good years prior to 2008 -- but he still gets on base and is a switch hitter who makes contact.
Not sure how many teams are willing to go two years for Hudson, but Seattle could be one of them.
The Angels will offer John Lackey and Chone Figgins, but probably not Vladimir Guerrero, according to multiple media outlets.
The Yankees have three decisions...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-26
Trades are generally considered creative transactions in baseball; it takes two or more organizations to agree upon all the variables of the players and finances, and most baseball executives opine that only about five percent of all trade discussions reach the point of actual possibility.
In other words, trades are extremely difficult to complete. But if the Seattle Mariners are to become competitive between now and the start of the 2011 season, GM Jack Zduriencik is going to have to rip off several good ones on top of an aggressive draft strategy, proper player development and wise, short-term free-agent signings to get the Seattle Mariners where they need to be -- capable of winning 95-plus games per season.
The free-agent classes over the next three seasons are miserable. They're filled with risky, aging players with agents who have track records of waiting out the market and maximizing the financial rewards for their clients, including oft-injured starting pitchers.
The Mariners farm system isn't capable of filling many of those holes within the next couple of years; we'll see Adam Moore get a chance to catch every day, Matt Tuiasosopo may get the same shot to win the job at third base and Michael Saunders may or may not be the club's long-term answer in left field, but he's probably going to get that chance at some point soon.
Dustin Ackley is at least a year and a half away -- and the more he plays second base, the further out his ETA extend...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-24
Latest word on the Mariners-Tigers talks is that they never were close to anything, at least not yet, and that the Tigers were unwilling to either settle for less in return, or include cash.
But I also heard that Brandon Inge and Matt Tuiasosopo could have ended up in the trade, and that Detroit covets Mark Lowe and Brandon Morrow both.
Seattle has also been connected to Cincinnati, San Diego and the New York Mets, though any player names would be 100 percent pure speculation -- but we'll do it anyway.
Brandon Phillips? Highly unlikely that Seattle has what it takes to get him unless they empty the farm. Carlos Triunfel, Michael Saunders, Fields or Aumont, and a promise of the M's next great talent as a player to be named might get them into the discussion.
Adrian Gonzalez? Same thing. He's cheap, young, San Diego does not have to trade him for any reason -- dude makes less than $5 million for 2010 -- and the M's don't have the haul to get him from Jed Hoyer. Boston does, but AG isn't going anywhere right now.
Not sure who the M's could be coveting from the Mets -- Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are going nowhere, neither is Johan Santana, and I can't find a vet-for-prospect deal that makes even the slightest bit of sense, either.
I did hear that Jack is higher on Saunders than I expected him to be and that is the reason why the club's interest in Curtis Granderson and Jason Bay is minimal.
Chances on signing Bay? Probably ZERO....
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-30
According to Jon Heyman, and me last week in the Offseason thread, the Detroit Tigers asked for Brandon Morrow and Shawn Kelley in return for Edwin Jackson, and Jack told them no.
I had heard it went further -- something like Morrow, Mark Lowe, maybe even Matt Tuiasosopo for Jackson, Cal Iorg and Brandon Inge, with the M's saying no to that, too, and while Heyman has a bad rep among baseball reporters for being way off at times, he's probably got something here.
Just thought I'd pass that along....
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-23
I thought this would be handy for some of us.
Below are the important deadlines and dates for the biggest events happening during the offseason in Major League Baseball:
November
23 -- AL MVP Award
24 -- NL MVP Award
December
1 -- Last date for former Club to offer salary arbitration to receive compensation
This is pretty self explanatory. If clubs do not offer arbitration to their free agents by this date, they will not receive draft-pick compensation if and when that player signs with another club.
Note: If another club signs such a player prior to this date, the club losing the player will receive compensation as if they had offered arbitration.
7 -- Last day for free agents offered salary arbitration to accept the offers.
Again, pretty easy to understand this one.
7-10 -- Winter Meetings, Indianapolis.
This is where it gets fun.
10 -- Major League Rule 5 Draft @ Indy
Any eligible player not on the 40-man reserve roster may be selected. Eligibility depends on the age of the player when they signed their first pro contract. Formerly, it was three and four years after the signing date for players, now it is four and five -- giving clubs an extra year.
12 -- Last day for clubs to tender 2010 contracts to unsigned players.
This is for non free agents only, and does not mean th...
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By: Chris Crawford on 2009-11-22
As first reported by Shannon Drayer, The Mariners and GM Jack Zduriencik announced that Dustin Ackley will begin working out at second base and report early to spring training to help speed up the process.
It has been suggested by his former coaches at North Carolina that Ackley would be able to transition to the position somewhat naturally due to his speed and instincts. Zduriencik has said that the the move is "an experiment", and that the team is always looking to gain flexibility by working out minor league players at different positions.
There is little downside in moving Ackley to an infield position. The value of Ackley's bat improves exponentially at second base, and if he shows hes not able to play the position effectively the Mariners know they have the outfield or first base as a backup. The reward definitely outweighs the risk in this case....
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-19
I have heard from several media sources today that the Seattle Mariners may very well be deep into talks with the Detroit Tigers and one other club in a three-way trade scenario that would send right-hander Edwin Jackson to Seattle and Brandon Morrow either to Detroit, or the unknown third team.
I don't have any other details at this time, but this is certainly an interesting deal, since a Morrow-for-Jackson swap seems to help Seattle more than it does Detroit, at least on the field.
It would save Detroit some money, though, since Morrow isn't arbitration eligible until after next season and Jackson is eligible for the second time this winter after making $2.2 million in 2009.
Not sure how I feel about this trade, because dealing Morrow right now is likely to be selling low, but despite his second-half struggles last summer, Jackson is much better bet to perform in 2010 than is Morrow.
We'll see how this one plays out before critiquing, of course, but it's very interesting, and a very real possibility....
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-18
Free agency hasn't even started yet and there are more rumors flying around then ever before. It's tough sometimes to decipher through those that are legit and the majority that are just about clubs tossing out feelers or attempts at posturing for effect on other targets.
But there are ways to separate the two and here is my advice on how.
1. Note not the source of the rumor or the source's sources, but the context in which the rumor is being reported. If Ken Rosenthal at FoxSports.com writes that the Mariners are expected to be in the running for right-hander John Lackey, according to big-league sources, then take that at face value.
All it means is that Rosenthal spoke to team or league officials that believe the Mariners are serious about acquiring Lackey. It doesn't mean Rosenthal, or his sources, believe Seattle is willing to go to $100 million, or that they will do anything definitive in the direction of Lackey.
Especially considering Lackey may simply not want to play in Seattle, so making any offer wouldn't be sensible.
2. Differentiate between rumors and reports. Often times a reporter, such as a Buster Olney, Jon Heyman, or Geoff Baker, reports what the rumor is, like the Rosenthal example above, and other times they are reporting fact.
It's NOT a rumor that the Boston Red Sox have spoken with the agent for Lackey. They did, in fact, speak to him, so when WEEI reported such, it wasn't a rumor they were writing about, it was...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-16
Just a few quick things to add:
The M's are apparently having talks with the Detroit Tigers about Edwin Jackson, and have kicked the tires on Curtis Granderson, too.
Foxsports.com suggests that Shawn Kelley and/or Brandon Morrow could be pieces of a trade with Detroit.
Several baseball sources are talking about how the Mariners are very serious about John Lackey and Jason Bay, but I am hearing the club prefers the trade route for the outfielder.
Still no word on whether the M's have shown interest in Nick Johnson or Dan Uggla, though I do not expect Uggla to be someone Jack Zduriencik covets.
One free agent bat the Mariners have shown some level of interest in is Vlad Guerrero, but it's believed to be secondary at best.
I also was told by a former M's executive that is still somewhat close to the organization that "there's no way Felix is traded right now. If that happens, we're talking July, maybe next winter. But it sure looks like they are committed, top to bottom over there, to keep that kid in town."
Cool....
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-13
Jack Wilson inked a deal with the M's today, according to multiple sources. A two-year deal, of course, which wipes out the option the M's were never going to pick up at $8.4 million.
I'm hearing the deal is for $10 million or so.
The update on Russell Branyan is that there isn't one, at least not officially. He's yet to get an offer from anyone but the Mariners, and I don't expect him to get one.
He doesn't want to leave, he simply wants to continue negotiation with Seattle. Sure, he and his agent will use his free agency as leverage, but I can't imagine anyone else hands him more than the 1+1 that probably gets offered in Seattle.
It will probably be a deal where Branyan can earn the second year via plate appearances, or he'll get a Varitek option: Team option for more than the player option, giving him security, but saves the club from too pricey a commitment.
The Mariners are not in on Chone Figgins at all, and shouldn't be. Adrian Beltre is not returning. Orlando Hudson wants to stay in the National League, so if the M's want him, they have to clearly beat any offers by the Mets, and it's not a mystery as to why Hudson chose Los Angeles a year ago, rather than a two-year deal with the Twins: The league, and the weather.
Dan Uggla is apparently not an option whatsoever, and in more Marlins news, they don't plan on trading any starting pitching -- only Uggla, Lindstrom and maybe Cantu.
Nick Johnson is getting hits from Washi...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-11
All the rumors say Jack Zduriencik is hot after starting pitching at this stage of the offseason, with John Lackey's name the longshot, and even names such as Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf and Rich Harden being thrown around.
I've already talked about how Harden is a great fit, but I have another idea -- Chien-Ming Wang.
The Yankees are not going to tender him a contract and while they still may try and re-sign him, Wang is going to be free to sign anywhere he wants.
He did have shoulder surgery, which can be death to velocity, but is expected to start throwing again in three weeks. This is a buy-low scenario for clubs, and the M's should at least take a look at Wang.
He was a frontline arm before the injury and is still just 29 years of age. He didn't rely on velocity anyway, which could mean that he really only needs to regain 90 percent of his velocity to be an effective pitcher again. His sinker and command make him interesting enough, and the cost should in no way be prohibitive.
The upside could be a mid-rotation innings eater for cheap. The downside? You're out a million bucks or so and Doug Fister gets half the starts.
If you don't take such a risk? Fister starts the year slated for all of those starts....
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-10
We know the wrong people are voting for this, but it's still an intriguing subject.
1B - Mark Teixeira
2B - Placido Polanco
3B - Evan Longoria
SS - Derek Jeter
OF - Ichiro Suzuki
OF - Torii Hunter
OF - Adam Jones
P - Mark Buehrle
There are more than just one or two glaring mistakes here, but most notably Franklin Gutierrez. When UZR and the scouting eye agree to that extent, the dude is great and there's no two ways about it.
But it's not just Gutierrez that was robbed.
At 1B: Kevin Youkilis and Kendry Morales are clearly as good or better than Teixeira and UZR favors both by wide
margins. I don't have a huge issue with Teixeira winning it -- frankly, these awards mean nothing, so I don't care at all in the end -- but he was the best BAT of the three, so it seems we'll see a pattern here.
At 2B: UZR says Polanco was the right choice over Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler, and those who had better UZRs didn't play near full seasons at the position.
At 3B: Beltre is still the best, but he didn't play enough, and Longoria is hard to argue against. Figgins would have been a good choice, too.
At SS: This is a huge joke. Jeter had one of his better seasons defensively, but still pales in comparison to Elvis Andrus, Cesar Izturis and Adam Everett. Jeter the better known player, the better bat...
At C: Mauer is very good, but the more pure defensive ca...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-09
Buster Olney is reporting at ESPN.com that the Seattle Mariners are emerging as a sleeper candidate to land free-agent starting pitcher John Lackey.
In the blog entry, Buster says "the Mariners' priority in this off-season is signing (Felix) Hernandez to a long-term deal, but they also appear to have the financial room to take on Lackey, as well."
Felix AND Lackey? Wow.
Just thought I'd pass that along.
Also, I have an official copy of the Elias Sports Bureau's Player Rankings that was released today. These rankings determine Draft Pick Compensation.
Click Here for that....
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-07
The Seattle Mariners need a lot of help. Yes, they won 85 games in 2009, and have a couple of youthful building blocks. Yes, Felix Hernandez developed into the ace everyone and their mother’s manicurist thought he’d be, and new GM Jack Zduriencik seems have a clue. So, in general, the club should be in decent shape.But there are a plethora of major holes on this team. Tons of question marks looking forward, and it doesn't necessarily glare brighter on one area of the club than another.
I'm not going to suggest a plan here. I'll leave the guessing to others. I'll leave all the making up of trades that will never come to fruition up to everyone else. I know it's fun, and I know that some of the trades we all talk about that never happen actually make some sense. But that's not valuable to me, so I apologize if that is what you were expecting tonight.
Instead, I'm going to present each position on the field and each unit of the team and present potential answers and directions the M’s could go. I'm going to stick to the reasonable possibilities, rather than suggesting the club can trade Felix and four prospects for Adam Wainwright and Albert Pujols.
I will, however, try and make it more interesting than a simple list of players.
Catcher
Moore is going to get his...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-03
I tried to go 20 deep, I just couldn't do it. So I went 15. I was there but six days and though I saw enough to rank 20, I only feel comfortable assessing five pitchers and 10 bats.
Subscribers can view the entire report by clicking here....
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-11-01
Someone once glared at me from a huge monitor and asked me where I thought the next pitch was coming from and then belted out a warning as we both nonchalantly resumed our previous tasks:"But watch out for in your ear."
It was not a banner year for the Seattle Mariners farm system; Carlos Triunfel missed most of the year with a serious ankle injury, former first-round pick Phillippe Aumont is no longer a starting pitching prospect and the only pitcher that really stuck out above Class A ball is a fringy left-hander with average stuff and limited upside.
A lot of the starters were up and down, hurt or lacked the performance levels to qualify, really...
Michael Saunders missed some time to start the year after having shoulder surgery and Matt Tuiasosopo spent half the year out with his own injury -- to his throwing arm. That doesn't make it easy to try and anoint the organization's prospects of the year.
Now, an explanation of the difference between PI's Prospects of the Year and the run-of-the-mill "player of the year" awards, since I know this confuses some people.
If the player's future is not that of a legitimate everyday player, a starting rotation mainstay or a high-leverage reliever, he won't even be considered, unless the system is weak. In the M's case, a few of those are...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-10-30
Finishing up the video, here's a little look at Starling Castro taking ground balls -- pardon the rough edges on the camera work, I can't see where the ball is being hit and Castro is a superb athlete who outran the camera several times, rendering most of the footage useless!
He's everything teams want in a shortstop and perhaps one of the Top 25-40 prospects in baseball right now. And the Cubs signed him for cheap.
Joe Dunigan has some power, good Delgado-esque swing, and while he has adequate bat speed, there's a little kink in his swing path that negates the max power effort he puts forth.
He'll never be a 40-homer guy, even if he vastly improves his contact rates, but cleaning that hitch up just a little will help him hit for some average and potentially get him into the big leagues.
Before I get to those videos, I have some international news to pass on, courtesy of Kiley McDaniel, formerly of the New York Yankees.
The Mariners are heavily involved in the scouting of 16-year-old Colombian catching prospect Jorge Alfaro, a right-handed hitter that stands 6-feet tall and weighs in at about 180 pounds. His pop times -- out of the crouch to throw -- are consistently 1.85-1.90, though his offensive skills are considered raw, but promising, including in the power department -- as usual with a lot of these kids.
Offers of $500,000 have apparently been made (maybe from Seattle) but the M's may be willing to go seven figures.
A...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-10-29
Thanks to ESPN.com's Jason Grey for letting me know that M's infielder Carlos Triunfel is back with the Peoria Javelinas and is playing shortstop today at Mesa in the Arizona Fall League.
Triunfel's leg is fine, the club just wanted to back off after he apparently experienced a little tightness or soreness three weeks back.
...
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By: Jason A. Churchill on 2009-10-29
The Seattle Mariners are reportedly interested in left-hander Aroldis Chapman. That's news, because there's always been this contingency side of the payroll ledger the M's come up with on occasion and blow payroll for a player. It's only happened once or twice, but if the M's are serious about Chapman, they'll have to do it again.It was nearly impossible for me to find enough talent evaluators to write up a full report on him and I have only seen video, so I'll pass on Keith Law's short writeup instead:
Chapman has a huge fastball and has been clocked as high as 100 mph in international competition. But he will sit more consistently in the mid-90s in his best starts and in the low 90s in some of his lesser outings. The quality of his secondary stuff is a bigger question; he has thrown a slider that's sharp and approaches 90 mph, but pitches primarily off his fastball. He has the arm speed required to throw a plus slider, and has also shown a curve, a cutter and a changeup in past outings. There has been some question over whether his fastball-heavy approach is by choice or whether Cuban baseball officials were trying to limit his appeal to MLB clubs by preventing him from showing off his full repertoire; it is, of course, impossible to confirm that theory. Either way, the fastball/slider combination alone marks him as...
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By: on 2009-10-27
Today's video group includes Chicacgo Cubs 3B prospect Josh Vitters, who has a really nice swing, probably enough gumption to stick at third, but a really terrible approach at the plate.
He's been lapped by Starlin Castro as the Cubs top prospect and fellow-draft-class buddy Mike Moustakas as the best at the hot corner from that draft.
Still, he's shown power and the ability to hit to all fields, but the dude walked all of 12 times in just over 470 plate appearances. His contact rates are solid -- just 65 whiffs -- but one has to wonder if he's just swinging early and often and avoiding two-strike counts, and his pitches per plate appearances back up that very theory.
Vitters saw 3.32 pitches per plate appearance in Peoria of the Midwest League, and 3.29 in High-A Daytona. Basically, he's Yuniesky Betancourt in that right.
The second video is a quick triple-collage of Florida's Matt Dominguez, who is an outstanding defensive third baseman, and Detroit infielders Cale Iorg and Scott Sizemore.
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