| By Jason A. Churchill | ![]() | By 07-17-2010 |
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| 1. By: littlelinny6 on 07-17-2010 12:42:50 Jason, What do you think the M's do about Figgins next year? He hasn't driven the ball all year and to me he looks a step slow at 2B matching his horrid UZR from this year. Given the time and money commitment, isn't he most likely our 3B for the next few years? Either that or he become the most expensive utility infielder in the game. The fact he is channeling his inner Reggie Willits this year is not helping his cause. Is there any upside with giving Tui or Mangini a shot at 3B next year? Thanks. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-17-2010 12:49:01 Let's see, in order... Depends on what they can do at 2B or 3B in trade or free agency this winter. Depends on what they can do at 2B or 3B in trade or free agency this winter. (Not a typing error, same answer.) No. |
| 3. By: maqman on 07-17-2010 12:49:49 A good summary of where the team is at this point in time Jason. I agree with just about all of your views. I have a little less love for Wak than you do but am okay with seeing how he does through this season. The other big plus is how GMZ is restocking the farm system, I really like that. Some have groused about what the team spent on international free agents recently but I figure it's money well spent. It will be hard to beat out the Pirates and Orioles for the top draft pick next year but we should be able to land an impact prospect with out first rounder. We are headed in the right direction but the trip will take some time before we reach the promised land. |
| 4. By: Gustafson on 07-17-2010 12:57:56 Good stuff. But Jason, don't the Mariners have team control over Smoak through his age 29 season, not 28? I believe he's going to be just short of a full year this season. |
| 5. By: Blowgun7 on 07-17-2010 13:02:33 Teams can live with not so hot SS and C offensive production. For me, we really need to focus on getting impact middle of the order bats from the 3B and DH position by 2012-2013. 1)Ichiro 2)Ackley 3)Smoak 4) 5) 6)Gutierrez 7)Saunders 8) 9) That's pretty much what we can expect come 2012, and it's important we find some answers for the middle of the order. Jason, are there any impact bats at 3B in this upcoming draft (other than Rendon)? I'm not too concerned about pitching with Felix at the front, and two capable back end guys who are cheap in Vargas and Fister. I think between Pineda, Paxton, and likely one of the top college arms in next yrs draft, we have a pretty good chance to field a strong rotation in 2012-2013. |
| 6. By: slamcactus on 07-17-2010 13:49:00 My plan: race to the bottom this year. Out-lose Baltimore, and grab Anthony Rendon. As long as he proves his ankle hasn't sapped his power next year, he's the best college bat to come along in years. He's worth tanking for. I know the team will never make losing an express priority, but man...I've seen Rendon in person several times, and I would LOVE to see him in a Mariners uniform. |
| 7. By: slamcactus on 07-17-2010 13:49:30 Blowgun: Esposito, who Jason listed, is most likely a 3B. He's nowhere near the bat Rendon is, though. |
| 8. By: Lailoken on 07-17-2010 15:05:34 How close is Adam Moore to gaining foundation-level status? |
| 9. By: Jerry on 07-17-2010 15:07:13 I also am worried about Figgins. He just looks terrible. More and more, I am thinking that he is looking like a vastly overpriced super utility guy. I just don't think he is a guy that you can count on to hold down a position full time. As I watched the game last night, I kept thinking that he just isn't a cornerstone guy. But the one good thing about him is that, even if he isn't the answer at 3B or 2B, the things he does do: defensive versatility, speed, plate discipline, etc., make him a great bench guy. It would suck if he keeps this up, but I could see the M's using him as a super utility guy. Sorta like Mark McLemore. There is value in that, even if it isn't commensurate with his salary. I wonder how he'd be at SS. Not as a starter, but as a replacement. Wak seems to like to stick guys in a role and keep them there, so perhaps he isn't likely to utilize Figgins in that manner. But I think the team could manage to get him 400 PAs each year as a super utility guy. He did really well in that role in Anaheim, splitting time between CF, 2B, and 3B. So even if he continues to show that he isn't the long term answer as a starter on the club, he isn't a sunk cost. Milton Bradley, on the other hand...... Blowgun, From reading draft coverage at ESPN (thnx Jason), Baseball America, and other outlets, there are a few good college bats in this upcoming crop. Rendon is the best, but OFs Jackie Bradley Jr. and George Springer are supposedly elite bats also. The M's could easily end up with one of those three guys. |
| 10. By: Blowgun7 on 07-17-2010 16:01:55 My hope is that Figgins has a good rebound next year and gets back to being a 3-4 win player next season, and then we can deal him off with two years remaining on his deal. To be honest, as soon as his value gets high, I would trade him immediately. We need more power at the corners given that we still use Ichiro in RF, and Saunders doesn't really project to be more than a 20 homer bat. 3B needs to be a offensive position for us going forward IMO. Jerry, Yeah, I love Jackie Bradley, and he's definately a potential fit. However, if we keep playing this poorly (which I think we will) then I think we'll definately go SP in the draft given the abundence of ace type arms in that Top 5 area. But there is still a year to figure all this out. |
| 11. By: eastcoastmariner on 07-17-2010 16:12:39 Jason, Can you elaborate a little bit regarding whether or not you think Adam Moore is the guy that will man the catching position for the next 5+ years for the Mariners? Also, have you seen enough out of Saunders to declare that he is the full-time left fielder going forward, or should the M's be looking to upgrade the position through free agency and deal Saunders in the offseason as Baker mentions? |
| 12. By: 01v-dubs on 07-17-2010 16:49:46 I'm excited for the future of this team. Next year I doubt we'll get Rendon, but we will get an elite college arm. My early favorite is Matt Barnes, Keith Law's write up on him recently sold me. I think we'll have a solid rotation in a few years, something like: 1) Felix 2) Penieda 3) Paxton 4) Barnes 5) Varges/Fister/Beaven As far as the holes in the lineup, I like Raben for the DH spot, simply because Smoak will hold down 1B, and as a full time DH he can have a better chance to stay healthy. Additionally he can back up and fill in at 1B, LF, and RF. At SS, I would hope that Triunfel would be able to play there. He has an absolute cannon and can throw anybody out from the hole. I've seen him make some throws in person that were absolutely amazing. However given the emphasis that this team puts on defense there is a good chance they do not want Triunfel at SS. Saying that I think there is a decent chance that Franklin is ready by the 2012-13 season, At 3B I would hope that Littlewood is the future of that position, but not by 2012-2013. Maybe Mangini continues growing and develops above average power to go along with his plus hitting ability. Other then that Triunfel could certainly play 3B, but he may not have enough power to play there. Ultimatly Z may have to trade for a viable 3B, which as we know he is very capable of doing. At C, I have planty of faith in Moore becoming an average to above average player. I'd like to say somtehing about Halman, it seems like he may be starting to get it, He may turn in to this years version of Chris Young with more power, but more K's, which is a pretty good player. I also think that Guti may start to decline. By 2012-13 I think there may be a chance that Halman could be the better player then Guti. The lineup could look like. 1) Ichiro RF 2) Ackley 2B 3) Smoak 1B 4) Raben DH 5) Guti/Halman CF 6) Saunders LF 7) Triunfel/Franklin SS 8) Triunfel/Mangini/Trade 3B 9) Moore C That's a pretty good lineup, with the bigest question at 3B, but looking at this team as a whole, it's apparent that its an exciting time to be an M's fan. |
| 13. By: Blowgun7 on 07-17-2010 17:00:21 01dubs, I don't know how you can say that looks like a pretty good lineup when Raben has never played above A ball at this point. Halman still have issues has major contact issues he needs to cleanup before he's ever a good middle of the order option. Franklin is in low A ball, and Triunfel is still a year a half away (most likely) from even breaking into the big leagues, let alone being a good contributor to a lineup. Personally, outside of Smoak and Ackley I'm not convinced we have anything in the way of impact ML bats. At least in regards to the 2012-2013 seasons. Saunders, Moore, Triunfel, Raben, Halman, and Franklin all have things to prove. Saunders is the only one at this point you can begin to pencil into the long term future of this team, based on his defense, improved power showing, and BB rate exhibited this season. |
| 14. By: short on 07-17-2010 17:07:48 Given the brutal nature of Safeco field for RHB, wouldn't the team be better off right now with Ackley at 2B, Chone at 3B and Lopez at who cares? If Ackley looks good at AAA I really hope they just move him up and send Lopez to the first team that will pay his salary. |
| 15. By: 01v-dubs on 07-17-2010 17:38:15 Good points Blow, perhaps I was getting a little ahead of myself, however Raben has a decent chance to finish the year in AA, and may even get a taste of AAA (provided he's healthy enough to do so, which is a big if). Regarding Triunfel, after seeing him a bunch of times I would say that if he was in Seattle right now he would not embarrass himself at the plate. His ultimate position seems to be his biggest obstacle. It seems very likely that by 2012-13 his bat would be ready, the biggest question is, will there be room for him given that 2B would be taken, he may not be able to play SS, and he may not have enough power to profile at 3B. In the handbook, Jason projected Franklin as the starting SS for the 2013 team, and that was before his breakout this year, so while I admit its aggressive I don't think its completely out of the question that he could be the starter sometime in 2012. Halmen is OPS'ing over 900 as a 22 year old in AAA. I know he still has contact issues (although he has improved from last year) but that is very impressive. If Mark Reynolds can be an everyday player then I see no reason why Halmen cannot be thought to be one. If he can put up numbers at the ML level similar to the numbers he's putting up as a 22 year old in AAA then that's a pretty good player, and he plays a premium position to boot. If you want to nitpick, the entire future roster outside of Ichiro, including Ackley and Smoak have things to prove. Ackley has yet to play at the ML level, and Smoak has yet to show he can play well on a consistent basis. I was simply pointing out that the future looks bright for this team. I should have said that I wasn't penciling these guys in, rather that our farm system is strong enough to project these guys as viable options in a couple of years. Good points though, I should have been more clear in what I was saying in my projections. |
| 16. By: Juan Valdez on 07-17-2010 17:40:12 I think signing Figgins was a big mistake. It isn't the worst contract in the world, but I'm of the opinion that giving significant money to mid-level free agents is often the wrong way to go, especially when your team is in a rebuilding phase. |
| 17. By: Juan Valdez on 07-17-2010 17:50:16 I look at Halman as kind of like a lottery ticket. He'll either be able to hit major league pitching or he won't. If he can hit, you've won the lottery and now you have a pretty good player. If he can't, he's probably out of baseball. I don't think there's any real middle ground. |
| 18. By: baseballman on 07-17-2010 18:06:38 Could we get by with Figgins at SS for the next couple of years? Or maybe even just next year if we still have Lopez and Ackley is ready? |
| 19. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-17-2010 18:39:18 Figgins is a bad SS. As for Moore, it's possible, but not probable. |
| 20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-17-2010 18:45:09 Re: Rendon There's little chance the M's end up with the top pick. Even if Baltimore starts win some, they have to jump Arizona and Pittsburgh, too, and 'Zona is likely to be selling more veterans this summer. While Rendon is a special bat -- he fits in well with the draft class of '08 and one scouting director opined that he may be a .300/.400/.520 guy with plus defense... that's Evan Longoria and then some -- I'm already assuming the M's best chances at drafting power is UCONN's George Springer, who is already my favorite '11 prospect. So there is still a good chance for SEA to get legit power in the draft even if they end up drafting No. 4 or 5. |
| 21. By: acqb1424 on 07-17-2010 18:57:14 Jason, Great write up! Like always this was very enjoyable to read. A couple of random questions for you. Any chance Franklin sees time at HD this year? 2. Is Jharmidy De Jesus playing anywhere right now? 3. I know it's early, but what type of names do you think we could see the M's send to the AFL this year? What type of prospects generally get sent there? Would it be too aggressive to send Franklin there? I'm assuming they'll want Pineda to rest a bit. Send Triunfel back for a third time? Halman? Thanks Jason. |
| 22. By: tonydif on 07-17-2010 19:09:59 Our goal has to be to get competitive once again. That means a drastic improvement to the infield. Its going to take creativity and luck to obtain those pieces prior to 2012, but theres always hope. |
| 23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-17-2010 19:18:04 If Halman was a legit everyday CF or a passable 3B like Reynolds is, he'd still be a big leaguer. Not a good one, necessarily, and even Reynolds wouldn't be a regular on most good teams, if not all. ACBQ, Probably not on Franklin. It's possible, but does it really help him? Not necessarily and it's OK if he stays at Clinton all year. He hits HD next year and West Tenn the year after at age 21 with a chance to see time in Tacoma. All that sets him up for the bigs at 22-23. That's ideal. DeJesus is still on the DL, but he's on the Pulaski roster. No idea on the AFL yet and yes, I think that's too aggressive for Franklin. FTR, I'd send Triunfel, Halman, Raben and Poythress (Moore I'd consider, too), with Leuke, Hensley and Fields. They are limited to seven, however. I would avoid Pineda and Robles and use Hensley primarily in relief because I think he can help the M's in 2011 in that role. |
| 24. By: amm02008 on 07-17-2010 19:24:08 What's happened to Nick Hill this year? Are his struggles purely a result of his injury? Is he still a viable candidate for the bullpen in the future? Do you see Jack Wilson being the starting SS for this team next year? |
| 25. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-17-2010 19:40:04 Hill has had problems since the fall league, but injury appears to be part of it. Could be time to stop using him in the rotation for good. |
| 26. By: littlelinny6 on 07-17-2010 20:14:26 When are the M's planning to pull the plug on "Dan Cortes is a starting pitcher" experiment? He just cannot throw strikes but it seems like his velocity could play up in the bullpen and he could help out in 2011. No one discusses it too much but the M's bullpen is one of the worst in baseball and any help to the 2011 club and beyond seems worth it. |
| 27. By: Jimabbottsrighthand on 07-17-2010 23:13:07 Is there a chance Rendon slips in the draft because of his injury? He has had ankle problems twice now and maybe Cole or Purke could just blow everyone away. |
| 28. By: Bionic_ben23 on 07-18-2010 01:23:33 JAC/ CC.. If the Mariners are so willing to give Brian Sweeney a roster spot, will they consider the same for Andy Baldwin? |
| 29. By: johnfree on 07-18-2010 05:41:56 Bionic, I'm obviously not Jason or Chris but, I think I can answer your question. First thing is Baldwin is just not very good but, I think we all know that. Second is that, in My opinion the M's front office and coaching staff (I'm not sure who) has an obsession with MLB Veteran Players. You can see it in roster moves like DFAing Kanekoa Texiera instead sending down Sean White, keeping Sweeney instead of Garko (that one worked out), putting Eric Byrnes on the team, and calling up Cordero and Brian Sweeney. You can even see it in everyday decisions like pinch hitting situations. You will never see Wak pinch hit Jack Wilson with a RHP, even with Left handed Hitters like Langerhans on the bench but he won't even take a second thought at pinch hitting Saunders or Moore (when he was up with the club). Also that he is was ready to pull Sean Kelley at anytime but allowed Sean White and League to fail over and over again. Maybe I'm off base but I have noticed that. |
| 30. By: safecochatter on 07-18-2010 08:16:22 think your right on the money john. the mind set has been around the m's organization a long time. now look in the front office and see who's been there a long time...i see one guy...armstrong. i think the worst era, was when hargrove was managing. he and armstrong were a match made in "rookie" hell. but like jason says,you got to give the tip of the hat to the suits for letting jack z run the show. if he wasn't,we'd have some recycled piece of crap in left field right now,instead of saunders getting his ab's in. |
| 31. By: slamcactus on 07-18-2010 15:26:27 Yes, losing enough for the #1 spot is a major long shot. We did, however, just lose Cliff Lee, while Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Arizona each have a collection of young guys who could significantly improve the teams moving forward. Yes, it's a pipe dream, but it's fun to dream. |
| 32. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-18-2010 16:49:28 Re: Wak, Texeira, White, Garko, Sweeney First off, the M's were dealing with their 6th inning/middle innings guy and went for the arm with the most upside in White. It hasn't worked out, but Texeria is NOT GOOD. The M's didn't give up a highly valuable player to keep White. So get over it. Texeira has not spot in a good bullpen on a good team without injuries. Second, Garko has proven the M's right so far, despite Sweeney's injuries. He's been terrible and one scout wondered last month if he was hurt -- his answer from another scout that had seen Garko a lot up to that point was that Garko just plays like he doesn't care. Tough to argue that decision. And as far as not pinch hitting for guys like Jack Wilson and doing so for Saunders and Moore is because the percentages truly tell you Wilson has a better chance versus the RHP than Saunders does versus the lefty. And the veteran always has a better shot in vacuum... and you can't pull your starting SS every time the opportunity calls for it, especially since Jack Wilson is so far and beyond better defensively than Josh Wilson is -- your only backup SS. Truth is, once the M's were actual sellers, Saunders has played a lot, Smoak is playing everyday, Moore is getting his ABs in AAA rather than splitting time in the big leagues... I don't have any issues with the way these guys are being handled right now. They aren't yet convinced Rob Johnson can't get significantly better, and by giving him the rest of the year as the regular catcher they can go into the winter knowing he got ample time and that if they part ways with Johnson or make him the 2-day per week backup that it's not "unfair." slam, The M's also have guys that we can reasonably expect to outperform what they did in the first half -- Figgins, Lopez, Bradley, Kotchman... and who is Baltimore going to bring up that isn't up now that is going to make them better? Look at that offense without Wigginton in it... ouch. It's not impossible, but it's just so unlikely that it's not worth hoping for and talking about outwardly. Especially here where readers will get all jacked about Rendon when they won't be seeing him in a Mariners uniform anytime soon. I'm OK with Springer, or even Gray or Cole. It's not like the M's have five future frontline arms in their system. |
| 33. By: Adam T on 07-18-2010 20:34:48 Jason or Chris - Did you guys happen to know why Robles only threw 2 innings today? |
| 34. By: slamcactus on 07-19-2010 01:08:10 I'm well aware, Jason. I'd just be pretty happy if we ended up with the #1 spot. I understand it's statistically very unlikely. We don't disagree on anything. |
| 35. By: Jerry on 07-19-2010 10:18:17 Jason, Do you like Springer a lot better than Jackie Bradley Jr? From what I have read online, seems like Springer is more of a pure power guy, while Bradley is more of an athlete with good power and a lefty bat. Seems like both could be good fits. Another question: how far ahead of everyone else is Rendon right now? The last two drafts have had huge gaps between the #1 guy and the field. Is that looking like it will be true for next year? Seems like Cole, Bradley, Springer, Matt Barnes, and Matt Purke are all pretty elite guys. Since Rendon wasn't that impressive this summer, then went down with a major injury, could this give other guys a change to pass him? Basically, I am asking where you see the tiers in this upcoming draft? Are these guys close enough in talent that Rendon's injury could push him down? Or is he head and shoulders better than everyone else? |
| 36. By: mymrbig on 07-19-2010 11:47:57 #35 - Plenty of talent evaluators (including some of the BA guys and Keith Law) said they would have taken Rendon #1 this year ahead of Harper. So I think the strength of next year's draft is NOT that the #1 guy isn't elite, because Rendon is certainly elite. Rather, the gap between Rendon and the guys behind him is considerably smaller than in 2008 and 2009. More impressive, the depth behind Rendon and the #5 guy or the #10 guy is a lot smaller. It is way too early to speculate on whether someone could pass Rendon. Even if Rendon returns to full health and studliness, one of the other guys could take a step forward and pass him. And if his injury slows him down or is affecting him in the spring, the other guys are all close enough that Rendon could drop down. |
| 37. By: Adam B. on 07-19-2010 13:27:21 The best talent doesn't always go #1 in the draft. Matt Bush anyone? That said, our chances of getting Anthony Rendon are slim/none. Quite honestly that's not something I'd stay up nights over. I'd be quite happy with most of the plethora of quality college arms that will be available to the M's lower down the order. |
| 38. By: dawgncarolina on 07-19-2010 14:04:10 Matt Bush was drafted by his hometown team, who was also super cheap. Baltimore has many issues organizationally, but being cheap isn't one of them. They'll take the best player. |
| 39. By: short on 07-19-2010 17:33:24 Here are two good reasons the M's should not try to lose their way to the #1 pick next year. 1. Losing sucks. A lot. 2. Losing kills attendence reducing budgets. This team will need to be able to shell out some cash if they are going to get better. Low ticket sales this season and in the offseason will reduce Z's financial support. 3. Losing that much implies either guys are getting hurt, not developing, continuing to suck, or some combo of those things. Those are all bad things. I want to see our young guys improve, our vets return to form and no injuries. |
| 40. By: short on 07-19-2010 17:36:33 I meant "three good reasons." |
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