| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 07-28-2011 |
UPDATE: July 30 @8:22 AM PT With the M's trading RHP Doug Fister to the Detroit Tigers for Charlie Furbush and Casper Wells, it looks like Jason Vargas is off the table for now. We'll have scouting reports on Wells and Furbush later today.
UPDATE: July 29 @3:22 PM PT Hints that Bedard is Red Sox No. 1 target and what Boston could offer, plus the Tigers' pursuit of M's pitchers -- what does Detroit have to give up? Click Here.
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UPDATE: July 28 @10:14 AM PT The M's are getting a lot of interest in their starting pitchers, including contenders stepping up their intrigue on Bedard.
UPDATE: July 28 @1:14 AM PT Word on a potentially-killed 3-way deal, new developments on M's trade plans and sources and I converge on the M's process. Click Here.
UPDATE: July 25 @ 05:11PM PT Notes on other potential matches for M's trade bait, plus League's chances to get dealt and a potential outfield target for the Mariners. Click Here.
UPDATE: July 24 @ 12:14PM PT The M's are requesting specifics in return for their pitchers, and it's all about hitting, catching.
UPDATE: July 23 @ 2:02PM PT Another club linked to M's arms. What can that club offer Seattle?
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Comments
The following 122 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: johnfree on 07-28-2011 04:58:51 I'm okay with that 3-way deal getting killed. I don't think the player that would be coming to the M's would be worth it, considering the trade cost and his almost certain arbitration raise next year. |
| 2. By: Marco on 07-28-2011 05:35:18 On the contrary I'd like very much that player. It's one of my favourite at the position - aside from questions related to arbitration. |
| 3. By: bodhizefa on 07-28-2011 07:18:52 Not 100% sure that my email was actually sent to you, Jason, so I'm just chiming in to ask you to set my account up for insider access (I just bought a sub). Thanks man! |
| 4. By: rjfrik on 07-28-2011 11:09:31 Probably shouldn't use names guys, for subscribers only. Anyways. I don't like the trade. I not a big fan of the player coming back, he's ok, but I think our pitcher is just starting to tap into something. His improvements from last year to this year have been tremendous. I agree with Viking, I would rather deal Vargas. I think Vargas plus the minor leaguer would of been fair. |
| 5. By: masonb on 07-28-2011 11:09:42 Two things: There's a reason Jason makes this premium content. Probably shouldn't discuss specific players involved Secondly, according to reports the Red Sox are very interested in Bedard. If he goes out there and throws a good game on Friday, any chance we could get Middlebrooks back? Or Lavarnway? |
| 6. By: rjfrik on 07-28-2011 11:12:57 "The Red Sox are "all over" Mariners lefty Erik Bedard, report Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, and they'll be among the many teams scouting him against the Rays tomorrow night." Let's hope he throws a gem!! |
| 7. By: rjfrik on 07-28-2011 11:14:01 OOps. Looks like Mason beat me to it. LOL. Anyways, let's hope he throws a gem. Also of note in the same report it said we have scouts at both AA and AAA affiliate of the Red Sox. |
| 8. By: rjfrik on 07-28-2011 11:20:09 Be great if we could get Reddick back for Bedard. I wouldn't be upset by Middlebrooks (whos a few years away with the bat)or Lavarnway who could come in and be our catcher of the future or a pitcher like Bowden or Doubront who could step in the pen and fill the shoes of any departed relievers. Word is the M's are asking for a lot back, so we will see what Jack can pull off and obviously it would be great if Bedard doesn't miss a beat in his return to the mound. |
| 9. By: baseballman on 07-28-2011 11:25:34 I agree with masonb, come on guys let's keep the insider stuff for insiders. Don't give specifics away, it's fair to JAC or anyone else for that matter. |
| 10. By: safecochatter on 07-28-2011 11:28:08 Not only redsox interested,but yanks are too,plus as many as 5 other teams to be at safeco tomorrow nite. couldn't work out better,having yanks & redsox bidding for the same player..if Bedard gets 5 solid i say pull him. |
| 11. By: masonb on 07-28-2011 11:49:29 I'd like to add too (and I'm sure everyone else would agree), that you don't trade Bedard unless he is bringing an impact bat back. There's no motivation to. I'd rather Z keep him and hope to resign him at the end of the year if everyone is offering B type prospects. Here's to hoping that the Jimenez rumors are all conjecture and that Bedard is really among the best out there. It would be awesome if a bidding war were to happen over him. Hopefully he goes out tonight and throws well enough to show everyone he's healthy |
| 12. By: skyway park on 07-28-2011 11:50:25 In a way I'm glad that his last start got pushed back. I think he will pitch better aganst the Rays then he would have at Fenway or Yankee stadium. |
| 13. By: Edman on 07-28-2011 11:52:54 I'm with johnfree and a few others, I wouldn't trade Fister for said thirdbasemen, especially if it required the additional player to be included. Way too much to give up. |
| 14. By: VikingArthur on 07-28-2011 11:58:34 My bad guys...I thought the comments on the "insider trade" info was only available to those who could see it. @5 completely agree on The Fist... I think he is legit. I want him signed to an extension ASAP. Vargas? Cannon fodder in my view. Let's all hope and pray Bedard dominates in his next start and we can turn him for a bat. Reddick would be a great option I think in addition to maybe another potential bat in A or AA. I hope that Bedard would be open to coming back next year so that we could have some more chips to trade in the young starters. |
| 15. By: dawgncarolina on 07-28-2011 11:58:53 I'm of the opinion that said additional player could be 80-90% of said acquiree. No way I give up the pitcher and the prospect for that guy. The Bedard rumors are a lot more interesting. Please be on tonight. |
| 16. By: baseballman on 07-28-2011 12:02:26 Yeah I cannot wait for tonights game. Teams are desperate, and while they won't forget about his injury history, they might not mind as much if they are in the middle of seeking a playoff spot and believe that Bedard can get them over the top. Best case scenario: We trade Bedard for something that will actually help us (ie, a bat) AND we re-sign him in the off season! |
| 17. By: dawgncarolina on 07-28-2011 12:03:30 You want Fister signed to an extension? Doesn't he have four more years of team control still? Way too early for that, IMHO. Too much volatility with his velocity. He loses three MPH and you've got another Ryan Rowland Smith on your hands. I probably like him better than Vargas now, but the difference is nowhere near as significant as some of you are making it out to be. Fister's somewhere in between a #3 and #4 starter. Vargas is a solid 4. |
| 18. By: VikingArthur on 07-28-2011 12:45:36 Yeah... that looked like a terrible trade to me. I would not give up (Mariners' SP) for (Some other player mentioned in premium content) straight across. Not sure we need another .350 SLG guy on the team... I'd give up Vargas for him but THE Fist? No way. |
| 19. By: VikingArthur on 07-28-2011 12:52:30 @18 Perhaps that was a bit of hyperbole but I do really like The Fist. Point taken.. |
| 20. By: csiems on 07-28-2011 13:02:08 Jason, is there any chance that the catcher mentioned in the July 28, 9:59AM post sticks at the position? |
| 21. By: short on 07-28-2011 13:28:01 I wonder if we couldn't do a combo-pack with Fister and Bedard to a contender for a very nice package of players, to include at least one ML-ready, cost-controlled player like Fister. The prospects mentioned from Boston would be nice, but throw in Fister and ask for Reddick as well and you've got a pretty damn good deal for both teams. |
| 22. By: Edman on 07-28-2011 13:34:41 What contenders need two starting pitchers down the stretch? |
| 23. By: Jon O on 07-28-2011 13:58:53 Anyone know what the injury is to Ryan Kalish? If the Bo Sox aren't willing to move Reddick for Bedard, than Kalish could be an intriuging get for the M's. |
| 24. By: junglist215 on 07-28-2011 14:00:54 @20 That's the whole thing. You'd only trade for the guy with the intent of him sticking there. He's been compared to Matt LeCroy on another site, and that's an unfair comparison. As he in no way resembles a bloated beanbag chair in catcher's gear like LeCroy. His defense is going to be a work in progress with the potential to improve, but again Jack Z better believe in that upside if he makes that deal. |
| 25. By: dawgncarolina on 07-28-2011 14:08:59 "I wonder if we couldn't do a combo-pack with Fister and Bedard to a contender" As Edman alluded to, it's hard to be a contender with a need for two starting pitchers. There's not a single contender that would use both Fister and Bedard in the playoffs, and not likely to be one that could use both of them in the regular season. Just because both pitchers have value together to the M's doesn't mean they'd both have value together to a team in contention. |
| 26. By: rjfrik on 07-28-2011 14:49:05 Another thing with Bedard. If he doesn't get traded and pitches the rest of the year for us unscathed and then we resign him on another 1 year deal. Bedard all of the sudden would be a type A or B Free Agent, which could net us an even bigger return next year around the deadline if we become sellers again. I know that is way forward thinking but I wonder if that is part of the reason JZ is asking for the moon on Bedard. Just a thought. |
| 27. By: aerichner on 07-28-2011 15:02:27 Well, if Bedard finishes the season unscathed and at the level he has pitched this year, no way he signs a ONE year deal, no matter how much he's comfortable in Seattle. Also the reason he might be asking a lot for him is because when healthy he's a stud. We're not talking about Jason Vargas here. On talent he deserves the return, but him being a health risk year in and year out it might not be possible. Hoping for a no-hitter tomorrow to erase those doubts :) |
| 28. By: dawgncarolina on 07-28-2011 15:08:14 RJ you crack me up man. The odds of Bedard ever being healthy long enough to next Free Agency compensation AND be in a position to turn down arbitration are almost zero. There's no way in hades Jack's holding out for that. Not even Geoff Baker's that delusional. |
| 29. By: short on 07-28-2011 15:56:38 Jason, Is Bedard a good candidate fora PTBNL trade based on how many innings he pitches, or starts he makes? A trade partner could then eliminate some of the risk of making a deal for the injury-prone pitcher. |
| 30. By: rjfrik on 07-28-2011 18:32:14 was just a thought boys, just a thought and far fetched one at that. but hey. |
| 31. By: safecochatter on 07-29-2011 11:17:04 what's the feel for a package of say bedard/vargas or bedard/league for redsox's lavarnway/middlebrooks. hell i'd even do bedard/fister for those two. we could get a 3rd sacker and catcher of the future in one deal. and no doubt about it,the sox need to add pitching. |
| 32. By: Edman on 07-29-2011 11:29:27 safecochatter, I'd say a less than 1% chance of happening. You might wishfully want that package, but why in the world would the RedSox want either two guys that are going to get expensive next year, or one that gets expensive and another that becomes a Free Agent at the end of the year? First, the alredy have Papelbon and Bard, what exactly do they need League for? Chance are, that they can get Bedard by himself, without a huge cost. They have no need for two pitchers, especially at the price you've outlined. |
| 33. By: safecochatter on 07-29-2011 11:49:23 they have no need for two pitchers..? Buchholz is getting a second opinion today. so right now it's Lester and Beckett and pray for rain. Lackey,Miller, Wakefield won't cut it in the stretch drive or the playoffs. |
| 34. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-29-2011 12:45:44 Also a factor to consider about the BoSox, fellas- their 40-man is FULL. And they have a lot of talent that they're gonna want to protect- by putting them on the 40- coming up from the LOWER minors. So they have a lot of creative juggling to do on that in the offseasson. And ipso facto, guys like Michael Bowden and Lars Anderson, Ryan Lavarnway and Ryan Kalish might be more available than what we think. They are of course not going to give talent away freely- but it HAS to be a factor in their plans. |
| 35. By: slick on 07-29-2011 13:35:38 I dont think we will be able to get any big name prospects for Bedard through Boston, but I think a package of Navarro+Vazquez+Bowden for Bedard+Kennedy might work. |
| 36. By: baseballman on 07-29-2011 14:07:41 I too don't think we will get an impact player this trade deadline, but then again I wouldn't be surprised if we did. Last year Jack Z had his pick of two untouchable, unattainable players in Smoak and Montero. Both of which we had no shot at last year. Jack has pulled rabbits out of his hats, and if multiple teams want what we have to offer, I wouldn't put it past him to do it again and get a player none of thinks is attainable. |
| 37. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-29-2011 14:15:59 The deadline is doing it's job- the suspense is killing me. Slick, I like that package, but I'm thinking Lavarnway is more a target. Bowden's hung around AAA forever, I'm not certain how much Yamaico Navarro is in their plans. |
| 38. By: baseballman on 07-29-2011 15:02:53 @jonmorosi 15 minutes ago: "#Tigers and #Mariners engaged in active trade talks, source tells FOXSports.com. Detroit has interest in Fister and a reliever." "#Mariners had a scout watching West Michigan this week. To state obvious, Seattle needs bats in the worst way. #Tigers" |
| 39. By: slick on 07-29-2011 15:17:50 Yeah I think Lavarnway would be nice but not sure if Boston would move him. Bowden is closing now in AAA not sure how M's see him as possible setup guy or a back of rotation guy. Boston also has an interesting SS in A ball 18 year old from Aruba. |
| 40. By: Jon O on 07-29-2011 15:44:02 What are the chances that Z gets creative and acquires a pitcher who he can move in another deal for a bat. For example, if rumors are true that Detroit is interested in Bedard - say maybe for Andy Oliver. If the Astros want to move Pence, but like Atlanta's prospects better than Phil(due to pitching prospects) we can move an Oliver to them to get someone like Singlton from the Phillies in a third team deal. Probably not realistic, but just trying to think outside the box. |
| 41. By: baseballman on 07-29-2011 15:50:11 Larry Stone just tweeted that the Mariners have traded Langerhans to Arizona for cash. |
| 42. By: VikingArthur on 07-29-2011 16:02:39 Am I the only one who is dumbfounded by the interest in Pence? I see a strikeout happy RHB who would be destroyed by Safeco. I am hoping that Z can move Bedard for a young bat from Boston or Detroit (two teams that generally produce nice offensive talent). Oh yeah and... FREE WILY! |
| 43. By: aerichner on 07-29-2011 16:42:52 40, I think Jack thinks like that and he should get the best talent available in a trade be it a hitter or pitcher. We all prefer a hitter but Im looking at value and I'll take the best value out there. 42, i dont get it either. He's a nice player and all but come on, I dont get why Houston didnt accept the reported offer (Singleton, Cosart, 3rd). Hell of an offer. Now somehow there's talk about maybe dealing Domonic Brown(there are conflicting reports, as always) in a deal for Pence, thats ridiculous. Houston reportedly prefers pitching and Philly is trying to work a 3rd team in the deal - which if true Seattle has to get involved be it Fister, Paxton, whomever Houston likes so they flip Brown to us. (I know this isnt happening but it's interesting) |
| 44. By: safecochatter on 07-29-2011 17:02:26 good luck Langerhans! Tigers have a couple of bats at w mich. but w mich is the same level as clinton. that's a ways away. |
| 45. By: slick on 07-29-2011 18:06:42 Casper Wells is kind of interesting rh power with strong arm, but not sure if anybody thought of him as a being anything more than average prospect. |
| 46. By: Blowgun7 on 07-29-2011 18:36:34 Mariners get: Dominic Brown Phillies get: Pence and League Houston gets: Fister Paxton Cosart Singleton Phillies probably don't do it |
| 47. By: Blowgun7 on 07-29-2011 18:38:48 Oops meant to throw Franklin in there to the Phillies to even things out |
| 48. By: rjfrik on 07-29-2011 18:40:07 Why wouldn't the Phillies do it? They have already offered Cosart, Singleton and a couple of other prospects for just Pence. Now they get a legit closer as well by getting rid of the "couple other prospects" and adding Brown. They just might do it. Interesting trade idea. |
| 49. By: baseballman on 07-29-2011 18:42:07 So you want to trade: League, Fister, Paxton and Franklin for Brown? |
| 50. By: Blowgun7 on 07-29-2011 19:08:46 #48 Yes they already offered Cosart and Singleton, but in this deal they would also be adding Brown. That's three pretty talented young players #49 I tossed Franklin in there cause I'm not sure we could land a player like Brown for Fister, League, and Paxton... I think that would be a steal for the M's I dunno if the following would work, but maybe it would: M's get Brown. Phils get Pence and League. Houston gets Fister, Paxton, Singleton, Cosart |
| 51. By: StandinPat on 07-29-2011 19:19:10 "Brown for Fister, League, and Paxton... I think that would be a steal for the M's" That's a steal for the Ms? Really? |
| 52. By: InZItrust on 07-29-2011 19:25:28 @ Blowgun7 Bill... Is that you? |
| 53. By: Blowgun7 on 07-29-2011 19:27:25 #51, you wouldn't give that up for a legit young corner outfielder with yrs of team control coming up?? Wow.. did Dominic Brown suddenly turn into a bum the last year? We're talking about the guy who considered the #1 prospect in the sport not too long ago, and has performed just fine in his first stint in the big leagues.. He would give us a very nice young core with Ackley and Smoak.. You aren't gonna give up Fister (a #3 starter), a closer who will be here for about another year (max), and James Paxton?/ We would be adding a a legit young position player and still have Pineda, Hultzen, and Walker.. Plus we wouldn't even need to trade Bedard for whatever marginal offensive talent Boston is offering, because we'd have already added a nice young core position player... To be honest, the more I write about it, the more I conclude the M's wouldn't even be giving up enough |
| 54. By: rjfrik on 07-29-2011 21:04:38 Hoping to get Lavarnway or Middlebrooks after tonight. Go Bedard! |
| 55. By: nighthawk180 on 07-29-2011 21:53:55 Well that didnt go as planed. 4 total outs. Yikes. All over the place. Maybe wasnt ready to come back. Been out for over a month and no rehab start in tacoma for a showcase start that blew up. Oh well. I dont really know what to say about this one. That sucked. |
| 56. By: DAMellen on 07-29-2011 22:14:33 You think he has any trade value after that? I mean his stuff looked good and he got squeezed a little and none of the hits were exactly rockets, but he also missed badly on quite a few and only got four outs. How much you think that hurts his value? |
| 57. By: holycrapseriously on 07-29-2011 22:20:00 blowgun7, your trade proposal is so widely ridiculous, I couldn't even begin to comprehend your logic. If you are trying to relate Brown's value to Justin Upton or to what we would have to get in return for trading Michael Pineda, you are grasping at air. Domonic Brown has shown some good things, but he's also shown himself to be pull-happy and I view him as Michael Saunders 2.0. He looks defenseless against pitches on the outer-half and he rarely goes the other way. While Brown has done better than Saunders to date, the risk of regression from a .750 OPS hitter to a replacement level player in Safeco is very realistic. Sure, he has tools, so does Saunders, Halman, and a ton of other guys yet to make their claim to a full-time job in the majors. If he can't learn to spray the ball to left or bunt a lot, he's going to hit against the shift and lose a significant amount of his average. While I fully agree with the pundants that he could be a 25+ HR/25+ SB guy; I still only see a guy that at his peak is a lesser defensive version of Mike Cameron with a triple slash of something like .260/.340/.430. Domonic Brown's prospect rating has been derived almost entirely by his production and almost nothing to do with his swing mechanics. You can see the physical power, athletic body and his, at times, fluid movements, but he doesn't look like a Top 30 prospect to me, any more than Saunders did 3-4 years ago. His affiliated team and his performance had more to do with that rating than anything. |
| 58. By: holycrapseriously on 07-29-2011 23:01:18 As for trade value, unless my math is wrong and/or the system changes this offseason, Domonic Brown is going to have 5 years of control left after this year and 4 of those will be as an arbitration eligible player, which makes him expensive like Hunter Pence. Which brought Pence something like $3MM and $6.9MM in his first and second of four arbitration years, which means that if Brown performs he will be making between $35-40MM before he's even a free agent. As of right now, fangraphs has Brown being worth -0.4 WAR through his first 88 games and only a +0.2 through the last 53 games, the time when he's figured some things out. As of right now, he's still only a prospect with almost nothing to prove that he's a sure thing. Fister meanwhile has been worth 5.9 WAR over his last 49 games. This year alone he has already earned 3.0 WAR and is reasonably on course for a 4.5 WAR for the season. Considering that Fister doesn't even reach arbitration until after 2012, he's very easily worth Brown straight up as he is right now. While many people claim Fister is only a #3 because of his lack of strikeouts and/or blazing fastball, he's very much proven over the course of almost two seasons that he's a #2 on many teams and could be the #1 for lesser division team like the Royals or Indians. Being a workhorse and a competitor should not be short changed and his FIP and xFIP say that he's not pitching over his head. Do remember that Safeco actually hurts RHPs when looking to Safeco as his reason for success. Throwing in Paxton (top 30-50 prospect for 2012) and League (a legitimate second tier closer on the cheap) is a huge over pay for someone like Brown who still has a huge probability of failure and who like I said before has got his status as a Top Prospect from "tools" and "stats", rather than showing an ability to use those tools with good mechanics and constant fluidity throughout his game. Then when you throw Franklin (top 30 prospect for 2012) into the conversation, you are just embarrassing yourself. There's NOBODY who would trade what you suggested. Rasmus is more proven and, I would think, Colby has more trade value, yet he was only worth a geriatric-below-replacement level fourth outfielder (Patterson), a high strikeout/high walking volatile pitcher with one-plus pitch who somehow gets bandied about as a #2 starter when he's nothing of that (Jackson), a almost retired setup man masquerading as a closer (Dotel), and a mop-up-duty lefty with back of the rotation aspirations (Rzepczynski). Even IF you concluded that 5 years of Brown was worth more than 3 years of Rasmus (which I don't), you can't possibly say that the difference is worth 2 years of League over 1 year of Dotel, 4 years of Fister over 2 years of Jackson, 6 years of Paxton over 4 years of Rzepczynski, and 6 years of Franklin over 1 year of Patterson. The trade between the Phillies and the Astros is essentially done, but saying it wasn't, if I were to get in on a three-team deal with the two teams in question, I would give Fister to Houston, League and maybe a second-tier prospect like Triunfel to Philly and I would expect to receive Singleton and Brown, both. I'll take crap and fill the rotation for this year and next too, if I have to, but I'm not trading my young starters like Felix, Pineda , and the big four down on the farm, Paxton, Walker, Hultzen (if/when he signs), and Campos are untouchable. If I'm trading from my farm, then I better have a chance to make the playoffs in the same season. We have more than enough on our roster that we can give to get impact talent. Fister, Vargas, and Bedard are more than capable of bringing back value. Even with his bad start tonight, I think you could get a piece like a Kalish (also injured) or Castellanos for him with a second piece determined based on how he pitches the rest of the season. If he stays healthy and throws in the playoffs, the Mariners get another top 10 prospect from said team. If he does get injured, than the Mariners get some cash considerations. |
| 59. By: dawgncarolina on 07-29-2011 23:23:39 Blowgun's trade proposal is seriously the worst suggestion I've seen since Bavasi acquired Bedard. I'm not sure I'd do Paxton + Franklin for Brown. I certainly wouldn't give away Fister and League's trade value for him as well. I'm not trying to pile on because Blowgun's always been a good poster. But wow man. Wow. |
| 60. By: Mackie on 07-30-2011 00:17:21 Bedard still has some trade value. One bad start after a layoff of close to a month is not going to suddenly make him undesirable. Less desirable than he might have been with a good outing, for sure. But someone will probably be desperate enough to take a chance on him. His first four starts of the year were pretty bad. Then he really hit his stride. Then over the next 71.1 IP he put up an ERA of 1.77. If his knee was healthy enough for him to come off the DL, then he is healthy enough to pitch... and what scouts saw tonight should be a blip, not the norm. My guess is that because of tonight's performance by Bedard, the Mariners are now less likely to get someone in return who is ready for the majors (or close to it, like the Red Sox's Ryan Lavarnway might be), and that they would instead get someone who is further away and farther down in the minors. I was not in favor of the Mariners acquiring Bedard when Bavasi traded for him, and although he is a very good pitcher when healthy, I find myself desperately hoping they don't invest a bunch of money in him by re-signing him for next year. I hope they can still find a trade partner who can give them a decent young player or two in return. |
| 61. By: slick on 07-30-2011 01:50:04 Carter Capps nsmed cape cod all star 22IP 24k's 1ER 0.41 ERA working out of the pen. |
| 62. By: holycrapseriously on 07-30-2011 02:00:01 #60 I think you should also consider that a guy like Kalish (for example) who plays in AAA, but who has a checkered MLB history and/or injuries in the recent past may be available, especially with a shortage of space on the 25/40 man rosters. Whether that means you necessarily want said player is going to be based on how the medical reports look, but I think that Kalish and potentially one of Lavarnway or Doubront could be had for Bedard. This goes back to the idea that other posters have suggested and that I fully agree is reasonable: A player to be named later or cash + Kalish from the Red Sox or Castellanos from the Tigers. If he makes 8+ starts and is eligible for the playoffs (if the team makes it), they should get another top farm hand, but if he's a mess, than they just send a couple hundred thousand dollars and call it good. The cash just assures the other team doesn't skip him to avoid paying something. If they can get a bidding war started, they might be able to get the second player guaranteed. They also might be able to sell Vargas for one of these packages and take home 4 total prospects, I would think that Vargas could get the second player guaranteed for the fact that he's under team control for another season and can be traded again if the team only needs a 2-3 month rental. Any trade involving Fister would require a package below, plus another Top 10 Prospect from said team. My preference for Bedard trade destinations are: REDS Yasmani Grandal + Donnie Joseph (PTBNL) or cash TIGERS Nick Castellanos + Daniel Schlereth (PTBNL) or cash RED SOX Ryan Kalish + Felix Doubront (PTBNL) or cash YANKEES Jesus Montero + David Phelps (PTBNL) or cash |
| 63. By: dawgncarolina on 07-30-2011 02:11:21 Bedard isn't going to net Grandal, Castellanos or Montero by themselves, let alone with something else. He might possibly net Kalish by himself. Maybe. You're dreaming if you think anybody's giving up a top 25 caliber prospect for Erik Bedard and you're smoking soemthing if you think someone's giving up a top 25 caliber 'spect PLUS for him. Not. Gonna. Happen. |
| 64. By: holycrapseriously on 07-30-2011 02:44:47 You sure about that? Really? Considering the other options out there, the demand for a good pitcher, and the organizational depth before you start saying for sure! Did you think that 2 months of Carlos Beltran would get Zack Wheeler? You can't even offer arbitration for Beltran because of his contract. The other benefit with Bedard is that he's going to cost $500K to a maximum of $1.5MM for the final two months of the season if the rest of his bonus possibilities take effect. That's next to nothing for a guy who has pitched lights out for roughly 11 starts in a row. It's also a lot cheaper than Wandy Rodriguez would cost. All I'm going to say is that if you can trade Heath Bell for more than what I just suggested, than you can get this for Bedard. |
| 65. By: holycrapseriously on 07-30-2011 02:45:21 Another point is that the PTBNL would only be in effect if he stays healthy and productive. If he doesn't make 8 starts or more down the stretch, than the receiving team doesn't give a PTBNL. Reds aren't trading their MLB catchers and already have Mesoraco waiting in the wings. Grandal has no future in Cincy and at best is a Top 100 prospect but still well outside the Top 50. Tigers are going to go shopping for a 3B this offseason and will have to sign them long term (3+ years). They aren't going to wait for a 19 year old kid to break in to the majors when they are built to win now, not in 4 years. Red Sox probably have no problem dealing Kalish with his shoulder problems and the fact that they are filled up in the outfield for a minimum of 3+ years with Crawford, Ellsbury, and Reddick. Yankees have become disillusioned with Montero and while he's still young, he's not a catcher in the majors. He only offers value at 1B or DH and considering they still have 7+ years of Alex Rodriguez (who will need to move to DH soon) and another 5+ years of Teixeira (1B), Montero is a roster redundancy. Montero looks more like a Top 50 prospect, but definitely not a Top 30 prospect. I could easily think of 40 prospects that I like better than Montero, but he offers what the Mariners need, RH power and a long term solution for DH on the cheap. |
| 66. By: holycrapseriously on 07-30-2011 02:50:29 The "something else" you refer to is essentially a LH reliever in 3 of the cases and a RH back of the rotation #4 or #5 starter in the other case. In reality, I don't feel any of the 4 guys I picked out are Top 30 talents. I wouldn't trade Franklin, Walker, Hultzen, or Paxton for any of those guys straight up. Say I'm biased, but there's some rationality to my thinking. Franklin - 19 year old SS showing plate discipline and power already moved to AA. Walker - 18 year old pitcher dominating players 3-4 years older than him in A ball and could probably do the same in AA if they felt like promoting him. Paxton - Missed a season because of negotiations and still is in AA dominating his opponents as a 22 year old. Hultzen - Probably about even with Paxton in all regards, should start out in AA and have similar success. Castellanos - Yet to display strong plate discipline or 40-level power let alone his supposed 65-level+ power he projects to. Grandal - 22 years old, probably my favorite of the four, but not without his flaws. Still needs defensive polish and his power and plate discipline skills haven't followed him to AA yet. Kalish - Shoulder injuries are always dangerous and so far he's shown almost no power since returning, there are a glut of outfielders on the Red Sox roster, the offseason will bring a large number of prospects that need to be added to the 40-man roster to protect from the Rule-5 draft, and his value could nose-dive if he struggles. Montero - Not only has he experienced a plateau at AAA, but it's actually become a regression. While he could still fix his numbers and restore some of the luster associated with his prospect value, he's still an all bat, no position player who gains most of his value from the POSSIBILITY that he could stick at catcher. In reality, if he becomes a bat only prospect, he carries similar value to Brett Wallace, Mat Gamel, or Yonder Alonso, which means he's barely a Top 50 talent. |
| 67. By: bodhizefa on 07-30-2011 08:50:29 holycrapseriously, you're wasting your time on those lengthy posts. Your ideas are nuts -- Bedard doesn't have anywhere close to that kind of value, and you're also underrating other teams' minor leaguers while overrating the M's. Sorry dude, but save our eyes the trouble. |
| 68. By: shemberry on 07-30-2011 09:11:11 mlbtraderumors says Tigers are making progress on a deal for Fister and that Furbush would be in the deal, among others. With 4 more years of team control, I would have to think that Fister will fetch a hitter as well. |
| 69. By: baseballman on 07-30-2011 10:07:07 Doug Fister is a Tiger per Jon Heyman |
| 70. By: baseballman on 07-30-2011 10:08:33 Pauley is involved also. |
| 71. By: Shawnuel on 07-30-2011 10:08:50 I saw that also, Shem........Haven't seen other principals mentioned aside from Furbush and that the Tigers want Seattle to send back a reliever (not League). Fister has been a very legitimate #3 this season. Not sure I'm ready to say that is his value going forward as Safeco certainly helps him even with his right-handedness. He'd probably be great in Detroit. As an aside, I wonder how Washburn's total post-trade collapse plays into the Tiger's thinking on this deal? Probably not much but if the same thing happened to Fister you'd have to wonder just HOW much Safeco boosts pitching numbers. |
| 72. By: shemberry on 07-30-2011 10:09:41 Deal is done |
| 73. By: baseballman on 07-30-2011 10:11:17 @DKnobler: "Tigers will get Fister and Pauley from Sea for Furbush, Wells plus." |
| 74. By: Shawnuel on 07-30-2011 10:15:51 If that plus is Martinez then I'm all in. Otherwise.....meh.....wait and see. |
| 75. By: shemberry on 07-30-2011 10:18:06 Not excited about Wells at all. |
| 76. By: marinermutt on 07-30-2011 10:19:02 What type of pitcher is Furbush? |
| 77. By: Shawnuel on 07-30-2011 10:20:18 If nothing else, it was a swap of two of MLB's best pornstar last names. |
| 78. By: dawgncarolina on 07-30-2011 10:20:29 This seems incredibly disappointing. I can't imagine the third piece is going to be exciting. VikingArthur on suicide watch. |
| 79. By: baseballman on 07-30-2011 10:24:14 That third piece has to be good. The asking price was so high for Fister (as rumored) that there's just can't be any way we didn't get a good haul. I'm going to wait to see the trade in its entirety before I say anything about it. |
| 80. By: dawgncarolina on 07-30-2011 10:28:05 Francisco Martinez! |
| 81. By: baseballman on 07-30-2011 10:28:09 Knobler just tweeted we got Martinez! |
| 82. By: Shawnuel on 07-30-2011 10:31:03 Wells hasn't developed this season but he has held some promise. .451 SLG and .763 OPS in 113 AB. Not great contact or plate discipline in Detroit but significantly better in minors. BA will never be great...especially as RH bat is Safeco. Man, I hope the other piece is useable. |
| 83. By: dawgncarolina on 07-30-2011 10:31:44 Still not sure I love this deal, but this at least makes it tolerable. Anybody know if its Furbsuh, Wells, Martinez or Furbush, Wells, Martinez + Below? |
| 84. By: Shawnuel on 07-30-2011 10:32:15 YES! Martinez. This is a very good deal. Helped both teams, I'd say. |
| 85. By: Shawnuel on 07-30-2011 10:32:47 YES! Martinez. This is a very good deal. Helped both teams, I'd say. |
| 86. By: Shawnuel on 07-30-2011 10:33:13 Sorry. |
| 87. By: dawgncarolina on 07-30-2011 10:34:44 Martinez is a nice piece but still not a top 100 type guy. He strikes me as a lot like Carlos Triunfel, honestly. Nice tools and projection, still hasn't really produced. I would love him as the #2 piece in the deal. As the centerpiece? Meh. |
| 88. By: marinermutt on 07-30-2011 10:37:30 Does Furbush = French of 2 years ago? |
| 89. By: bodhizefa on 07-30-2011 10:38:59 For those of us who don't know anything about Martinez, could someone chime in with an analysis? All I see on the pre-season prospect reports is a guy who no one is sure will hit enough to play third (and who has also been rushed up through the system). What's the scoop on this guy? |
| 90. By: baseballman on 07-30-2011 10:40:33 Larry Stone is saying we still get a PTBNL along with the 3 previously mentioned and that the PTBNL later is going to be significant |
| 91. By: Shawnuel on 07-30-2011 10:42:29 Yeah...but two organizational holes were addressed with guys who have decent to good upside. You state solid reasons to be wary, dawg, but I choose to be optimistic at this juncture. I would agree that Martinez is not top 100 right now but he certainly has that upside.....still just 20 years old. The Triunfel comp is interesting. |
| 92. By: dawgncarolina on 07-30-2011 10:43:54 The PTBNL has the power to change my mind about the deal. They are almost never that interesting, but if it's a 2010 draftee that can't be traded yet it could be significant. |
| 93. By: shemberry on 07-30-2011 10:44:01 Could the significant ptbnl be a guy they drafted and signed Aug 15 of last year? |
| 94. By: marinermutt on 07-30-2011 10:50:18 I hope the PTBNL is something good. Giving up Fister, who has turned himself into a pretty good #3 type pitcher and is cheap has to bring us more. |
| 95. By: junglist215 on 07-30-2011 10:53:19 It just might be Castellanos. He signed 8/16/10. |
| 96. By: Shawnuel on 07-30-2011 10:57:34 Don't know why they'd trade Martinez AND that Aug. 15th, 2010 signee. #89 - What I can tell you about Martinez is that he is a 20 year old in AA who is hitting .282/.319/.405 but with 19 BB and 80 K in 379 PA. He has good range and hands at third but has 27 errors so far this season...maybe a concentration issue. Hmmmm....does sound eerily like Triunfel. |
| 97. By: marinermutt on 07-30-2011 10:59:41 Nick Castellanos, Chance Ruffin, and Drew Smyly all signed on August 15th of last year. With Martinez in the deal, chances are Castellanos wouldn't be a part of it. Ruffin is a closer in AAA and Smyly has had a pretty good year starting in AA. |
| 98. By: Shawnuel on 07-30-2011 11:00:23 Well, Martinez has been rumored to be making a switch to RF so that makes Castellanos fit in a little better. I'm not holding my breath there.......that would be a swindle IMO.If the reliever was League, well.....no not even then. |
| 99. By: marinermutt on 07-30-2011 11:00:40 I guess were really guessing it is an Aug 15 player to be named. |
| 100. By: Shawnuel on 07-30-2011 11:02:08 mutt, I was thinking Smyly as well, though maybe Ruffin makes the most sense having given up a reliever. That might free Jack up more to trade League now or in December. |
| 101. By: dawgncarolina on 07-30-2011 11:02:12 It's not going to be Catellanos. I could see it being Ruffin or Smyly. |
| 102. By: dawgncarolina on 07-30-2011 11:05:22 Although honestly if it's Smyly I'd think that tips it pretty heavily in our favor. I'm starting to come around on Wells, too. Sounds like his defense is plus for a COF. 1 WAR in 125 PA's is pretty solid. I might like this trade even if the PTBML is just a throwaway piece. |
| 103. By: tkballer22 on 07-30-2011 11:06:02 Agreed with Shawnuel, cant see us trading for two 3B prospects, unless we're flipping one of them for another significant piece. Im looking more at someone like C Rob Brantly. Brantly was their third round pick out of UC-Riverside in 2010. He is currently their #8 prospect. As a left-hander, he's hit .295/.356/.429 in a year and a half of minor league ball. Looks like an offensive catcher who would be a few years away, but would definitely beef up the position within the organization. |
| 104. By: dawgncarolina on 07-30-2011 11:08:03 I don't think it has anything to do with us not taking both Martinez and Castellanos, there's just no way Detroit is giving us both of them. |
| 105. By: dawgncarolina on 07-30-2011 11:08:34 When did Brantly sign? He does sound like a great fit. |
| 106. By: tkballer22 on 07-30-2011 11:10:34 He signed earlier than August, so probably not him. |
| 107. By: baseballman on 07-30-2011 11:11:21 I agree with 104. As much as we would all LOVE Castellanos to be involved, if he was I highly doubt we see any other names just his. But I too think that the PTBNL will be a 2010 draftee. |
| 108. By: junglist215 on 07-30-2011 11:14:38 All the rumors leading up to this had Mariners scouts in attendance at Western Michigan games. Why else go there unless to watch Castellanos play? There was no way Jack Z would give up Fister unless it was an overpay, and adding Castellanos to that deal makes it so. |
| 109. By: dawgncarolina on 07-30-2011 11:17:02 It's not going to be Castellanos. Zero chance. |
| 110. By: Jerry on 07-30-2011 11:36:59 I would also love to see Castellanos as the extra piece, but that is highly unlikely. He is a very good prospect. If the PTBL is a 2010 draft guy, its not going to be someone elite. Their picks after Castellanos were a bunch of relievers (which DET always seems to do) and low upside guys. I'm kinda bummed they couldn't pry away Andy Oliver instead of Furbush. But Furbush is the type of guy who will benefit greatly from Safeco. And he can step in right away, which is nice. The M's could very well still move Bedard, then go with a rotation of Felix, Pineda, Vargas, Beavan, and Furbush. As a side note, it seems like the M's are picking up clones. Furbush is like Vargas, and Beavan is like Fister. The PTBL will make this deal. If he is a good player, this is a great trade. If the last guy is an afterthought, it's simply a decent more. I think Fister's value is absolutely maxed out right now, and can understand why Z would move him. Sell high. |
| 111. By: baseballman on 07-30-2011 11:39:23 From @jonmorosi: "Francisco Martinez: exciting bat, unpolished defender, good speed, probably not big leagues before '13. #Mariners" |
| 112. By: rjfrik on 07-30-2011 11:44:48 Wow. I don't check the internet for about 12 hours and look what happened. Bedard blew up and most likely screwed our chances for any great return from the Sox. Because of that, speculation on my part has me believe that Z then turned his attention on the other deal he had in the works and shipped out The Fist, who in my opinion is a very good pitcher. The reports of the M's having scouts at the Western Michigan games are true and they were primarily to watch Nick Castellanos. He just might be the player to be named, yes it would be a massive overpay but we've seen JZ work this type of magic before it trading JJ, trading for Lee and trading Lee all were massive overpays in the M's direction. This could be as well. Guess we will see. As it is I think this trade is pretty much a wash, with a slight edge going to Detroit as I value Fister greatly. With the player to be named it makes it even and if that player is anyone of significance then we win, if it's Nick then we really win. Go M's |
| 113. By: baseballman on 07-30-2011 12:01:09 JAC tweeted he heard IT COULD POSSIBLY be Fields or Symly. |
| 114. By: rth1986 on 07-30-2011 12:02:53 Really disappointing deal. Wells and Furbush are essentially AAAA players. Furbush could be Luke French 2.0 and, apart from being a plus defender (which does matter), is Casper Wells' bat really THAT much better than Mike Wilson's? Martinez is interesting, but he's a good secondary piece and probably profiles very similarly to Triunfel. This deal only makes sense if the Mariners get Castellanos or Smyly. Jack Z should have held out for Oliver instead of Furbush. Fister has shown true improvements and the Mariners had no motivation to trade him off right now unless it was for an impact piece. Not to mention Pauley, too, who developed into a really solid swingman or number 5. Sad to say this will probably go down as Jack's worst trade. Probably even worse than the Morrow deal. Here's hoping the PTBNL is truly a 'significant' piece. |
| 115. By: dawgncarolina on 07-30-2011 12:36:14 The PTBNL could be no one and this is significantly better than the Morrow trade. |
| 116. By: baseballman on 07-30-2011 12:41:21 Lol, 114 is pretty hilarious |
| 117. By: dawgncarolina on 07-30-2011 13:18:50 Agreed baseballman |
| 118. By: VikingArthur on 07-30-2011 13:29:14 Good lord... a bunch of spare pieces for The Fist? I don't like it. We better get a bat out of this... on the surface I'd say it sucks. |
| 119. By: TroyD on 07-30-2011 16:35:37 I like the deal if its Fields, Smyly, or Ruffin. I agree the chances Nick is added is minut IMO. Anyways I think you guys are underselling Wells. I think he pretty good. He is a good defender and has 4 hr. and doubles in 125 inconsistent AB's so that pans out to a 20-25 HR guy if he gets normal playing time with 30-35 doubles potential. Maybe more doubles than homers cause of Safeco. Ive loved Martinez for a while. I think he can have a really high ceiling if he figures it out. I agree 2013 is his debut time. Give him the rest of the year in AA. Then next at AAA. Plus this deal allows us to trade Liddi or whomever to somebody who covets them more than us. |
| 120. By: TroyD on 07-30-2011 16:39:07 I also love how people believe that one start (though it was more significant that a regular start) kills Bedard's value because I think that we might be able to get an interesting cog for the rebuild maybe not two now though. |
| 121. By: aerichner on 07-31-2011 03:36:08 I wrote down the names of all the posters that didnt like the trade. We'll see with time. Doug Fister is a freaking 4th/5th starter whose value lies in that he's cheap, throws strikes and pitches at Safeco. That's it. Getting Francisco Martinez ONLY should make you guys happy. Wells can help and Furbush is probably as fringy as Fister was when he was called up last year. He got better this year (Fister) so we sold high. The return? I dont know. Trading him? I dont mind him at all. Someone said we got spare pieces for 'The Fist'. Well, WE TRADED SPARE PIECES. Doug Fister (and Pauley) will not win anyone a championship. We'll see how Martinez (the important piece in the deal) develops. I like the trade or at least the idea of moving him now...and Im certainly still on Jack's side. |
| 122. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-31-2011 04:55:19 I'm actually elated with Martinez. I'm a believer that this is a young guy who's been zoomed and hasn't really tapped into his potential yet. And count me in as a guy who thinks we've utterly maximized the returns we could get on players that are pro as they come and productive, but just not elite. Both Fister and Pauley fit that description for me. It gives us THREE really intriguing righty bats at the AA-level (Catricala, Triunfel and now Martinez). A lot of the better parts of our future now are on the Jackson squad. Paxton and Franklin are there now, too. Ruffin's my bet as the PTBNL. |
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