| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 04-07-2011 |
The season is upon us -- the big leagues opened a week ago and around these parts, the real season starts Thursday. For the affiliates in the Seattle Mariners' organization, there's fun on every roster, both in terms of chances to win games and future big-league talent.Let's take a look at each club individually.
And no, I will not make statistical projections, it's silly, especially with the rosters of the other clubs in each league unofficial. And there are so many other factors, such as weather, health and for pitchers, the lack of polished gloves behind them that skew the numbers.
That is why the traditional numbers mean so little.
| Tacoma Rainiers, AAA -- Pacific Coast League |
Tacoma not only has a couple of prospects -- they also have several that could see time in the big leagues that aren't necessarily considered good prospects, or prospects at all.
Greg Halman's second go-round in Tacoma is likely his last shot to make significant improvements toward a career as an everyday player in the majors. He's already a long shot and one I wouldn't bet on, but he's still only 23 with 2200 professional plate appearances and came from a background of other sports -- he didn't start playing baseball until he was almost 14 and wasn't playing regularly until 15.
Alex Liddi is in a similar boat, and I'll repeat what I keep saying about certain talents in the system -- since he can't play third (and he cannot and isn't going to get better as he continues to get bigger and stronger ... and slower) move him to the outfield now. The M's aren't going to do it, but I would, just for the record.
It's not that Liddi can't field anything hit at him and has zero ability -- it's not like putting David Ortiz at the hot corner or anything -- but as is he's below average and could ultimately turn into a liability as he loses range.
Liddi will be challenged offensively and it could get ugly, but I do expect him to hit for reasonable power. A line similar to that of Matt Mangini's last year in terms of doubles and homers is a good base line, but I don't think there is much chance he hits better than .260, and his BB/K rates are likely to take a dip.
Matt Tuiasosopo's prospect status is pretty much evaporated, but if he stays healthy could still work his way into a part-time role in the bigs. For me, he's behind Matt Mangini for such a role, though Mangini will have to show me he candle the outfield, at least in short stints, to have that kind of value outside the batter's box.
Dustin Ackley is already passable at second base, but it'd be nice if he took another step or two between Tacoma and Seattle this season to become an asset in the field.
If he's able to do so, he goes from B+/A- prospect with high probability to an A prospect that is destined for several all-star teams.
Mauricio Robles may not pitch for three months ... we'll talk about him when he's healthy.
Dan Cortes may have to undergo a mechanical adjustment in order to get more strikes out of him. The stuff is plus; fastball up to 98 mph and a curveball that flashes as an out pitch. But he didn't make the big club because of the bases on balls.
Carlos Peguero will get a chance to turn some of his physical prowess into a better position on the M's depth chart, butm like Halman, needs to make more contact. His pitch recognition is better than Halman's but his swing is longer and he's a bit of a mess mechanically.
Opening Night: vs. Sacramento Rivercats
Starting Pitcher: Luke French, LHP
Opposing Pitcher: Josh Outman, LHP
Listen Live: Click Here
| Jackson Generals, AA -- Southern League |
Jackson's roster is highlighted by the bats assigned to the club, but for me the arms will be the most interesting to follow.
Johermyn Chavez and Rich Poythress will be tested against some pretty solid pitching and along with Kyle Seager will have a shot to show that last year's success in the Cal League was no fluke.
Josh Fields is apparently healthy enough to start the season (though I would not be surprised to see his name added to the DL as late as today) but left-handers Anthony Vasquez and Erasmo Ramirez could shine their way into the Top 30 by responding well. It's an aggressive assignment for Ramirez, but his command of three pitches and deceptive delivery should help him stay.
The relief corps could be nasty, and there are a couple arms that could end up in the big leagues, either late this season or sometime in 2012, including Kenn Kasparek and Steven Hensley.
When Hensley is right, he's 89-92, touching 93, with an above average slider. That's a package that could play in the seventh inning.
Carraway's delivery is gross -- cross-body, all kinds of imbalances and a loooong arm path, but his stuff is decent -- according to scouts, he was much firmer with the fastball last season in Clinton than at Everett the year before when I had him at 86-87. The curveball needs to be sharper, too, but he's put up numbers so we'll see how the Southern League treats him.
Nate Tenbrink returns and will get ample time in left field, and I fully expect him to see Tacoma this season, and perhaps Seattle in September. He's the better overall version of Tui and Mangini, because he's adequate in the outfield and at third base, and IMO, at second base, too.
Opening Night: vs. Mississippi Braves
Starting Pitcher: Vazquez, LHP
Opposing Pitcher: Randall Delgado, RHP (No. 50 prospect on Keith Law's Top 100)
Listen Live: Click Here
| High Desert Mavericks, A -- California League |
High Desert is the starting point for James Jones, Nick Franklin, Gabriel Noriega, Dennis Raben and eventually Ji-Man Choi, at least I believe.
Choi is not on the current roster but that roster still has room on it.
These cats will put up numbers, but do yourself a favor and pay more attention to the "hit tool" type stats than the power numbers. The walks, the contact rates, who they are facing, things of that nature.
Are Raben and Jones showing promise versus left-handers? Is Franklin making contact and faring well versus the better pitchers in the circuit?
Stephen Pryor, once healthy, will be fun to watch, and James Gilheeney is the staff's best arm right now and probably belongs in Double-A.
It appears that Raben will play both first base and the outfield, but I'd much rather seem him settle in at first and save the knee.
Opening Night: vs. Lancaster Jethawks (Houston Astros)
Starting Pitcher: TBA (Gilheeney?)
Opposing Pitcher: Jose Cisnero, RHP
Listen Live: Click Here
| Clinton Lumberkings, A -- Midwest League |
Even with several intriguing arms on the roster such as Tyler Burgoon, Anthony Fernandez, Fray Martinez, Forrest Snow and Seon-Gi Kim, the three bats will be my biggest priority and it may warrant a trip to that awful region of the country to see them live.
Julio Morban is finally healthy, Marcus Littlewood is a favorite of mine and Steve Baron has a chance to use what he learned in big league camp to put forth in affiliated play and prove his value.
The weather is always a factor early, so the numbers may not look good offensively, another reason to see them live.
Snow may not stay long, as he'll be pushed quickly if he is throwing strikes with all three pitches.
Opening Night: vs. Burlington Bees (Oakland Athletics)
Starting Pitcher: Snow, RHP
Opposing Pitcher: Seth Frankoff, RHP
Listen Live: Click Here
Jason A. Churchill is Executive Editor at Prospect Insider, founded in 2006, and has covered scouting and player development since 2003, writing for publications such as InsidethePark.com, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer and The News Tribune. You can follow Jason on Twitter @ProspectInsider, as well as @ESPN_MLBDraft, and contact him via email at Churchill@ProspectInsider.com.
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Comments
The following 67 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: dawgncarolina on 04-07-2011 17:03:26 "Awful region of the country" Tell us how you really feel, Jason. lol. Hard to disagree though, North Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas are the hardest states to get excited about visiting, in my opinion. Even Wyoming and South Dakota have some redeeming qualities (though not much in the way of minor league beisbol). |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-07-2011 17:18:19 Iowa, Wisconsin ... horrible. |
| 3. By: Adam P. Boyd on 04-07-2011 19:08:53 Awesome stuff. Such a fun time of year. MiLB beginning, baseball in full swing, hope springs eternal each year - to wax poetic. Go M's. |
| 4. By: Blowgun7 on 04-07-2011 19:39:45 I really like Morban, I think if he can stay healthy for a complete season, he'll be a Top 10 prospect by year's end. Jason, have the injuries damaged his ability to play CF? |
| 5. By: Mackie on 04-07-2011 19:59:09 David Ortiz at 3B... that is a brutal image. Great writeups!! |
| 6. By: Madison Mariner on 04-07-2011 21:38:03 "Iowa, Wisconsin ... horrible." A few years ago, a may have made it a point to disagree with you, as there's much to love about the Midwest(and yes, the 'Madison' in my name is Madison, Wisconsin). However, with the state of the economy in Wisconsin, and the fact that the M's affiliate is now in Clinton instead of Wisconsin, and the things the Republican governor and legislature are trying to do in this state, it pretty much is awful here right now and for the forseeable future--which explains why I'm trying like heck to leave ASAP. Still, there can some very pretty drives in the Midwest and Great Plains, so there's always that to enjoy if you plan on coming out to the Midwest to check out some minor league baseball, Jason. :) |
| 7. By: VikingArthur on 04-08-2011 10:16:29 Way to throw in your absurd political asshattery into a discussion of minor league baseball. But of course lifelong pensions and exorbitant pay for non-productive paper shufflers is a great idea. **eye roll** It is great that this organization has finally decided to build a franchise from the bottom up rather than trade every semi-worthwhile talent for aging bit players and signing free agents. |
| 8. By: 11records on 04-08-2011 10:28:27 It's gonna be tough for some of the pitch-to-contact Tacoma starters to have Peguero and Carp/Tui in RF and LF respectively. They'll need Halman to cover ground like a 23 year old Andruw Jones. |
| 9. By: teddyb on 04-08-2011 11:06:26 Nebraska isnt that bad im headed back there next week moving back i dont mind it. |
| 10. By: maqman on 04-08-2011 13:02:30 Forrest Snow sounds like a painting title. Viking Arthur sounds out of date. |
| 11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-08-2011 14:21:43 I have no idea who Viking Arthur is talking to, but it better not be me. |
| 12. By: Adam P. Boyd on 04-08-2011 15:08:46 Think he was referring to Madison Mariner who mentioned he wanted to leave Wisconsin due to the political climate. |
| 13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-08-2011 16:00:35 I was being facetious. |
| 14. By: SMariners11 on 04-08-2011 17:12:45 I can tell you right now from working with the Lumberkings and going to college in Iowa. There is nothing pretty about Clinton.....nothing at all. |
| 15. By: slamcactus on 04-08-2011 17:40:21 Why does VikingArthur hate policemen, firefighters, and teachers? |
| 16. By: Adam P. Boyd on 04-08-2011 18:02:35 I would hate being in the Midwest. Weird thing developing with Wedge/Wilson since Wilson took himself out of the game on Wednesday, but implied that Wedge did it to the media. |
| 17. By: Adam T on 04-08-2011 22:24:51 Shut up with the politics. Just shut up. |
| 18. By: relocated206native on 04-08-2011 22:28:25 Did Franklin get hurt last night? |
| 19. By: Blowgun7 on 04-08-2011 23:19:59 Let's enjoy Jack's final season here in Seattle.. another miserable product on the field.. this team is gonna lose 95 games again |
| 20. By: Edman on 04-09-2011 11:33:21 Does that mean that Epstein is in trouble in Boston, Blowgun, after the first seven games? Actually, this team isn't nearly as bad as last year's team to watch, at least for me. I expect that some new faces are going to struggle a bit. But, it's about building for 2012 and beyond. There's always Fox to get your baseball fix, if that's not enough for you. |
| 21. By: rjfrik on 04-09-2011 11:34:02 In the prediction thread I said we would lose 69 I believe, so that's looking good. The thing is it will net us another top 3 pick which Im all for. This team plain out needs talent and with two top 3 picks in a row, it should infuse some solid young talent to go with the few young talent pieces we already have. |
| 22. By: Blowgun7 on 04-09-2011 11:46:32 #20, does Jack have two world championships, and built a perennial powerhouse? Don't respond with such a silly rebuttal. Theo Epstein is far more accomplished as a ML GM then Jack.. I know he has a significant financial advantage, but nevertheless, Theo has two world titles and Jack is looking at a 2nd straight horrible season. I would like to stick it out with him for a few more yrs because I like the way the team has drafted and I like the guys in charge of making those picks. That being said, the product has been unwatchable the last two years (and yes this year's team is going to stink too, and be unwatchable quite soon due the total lack of competent major league hitters on the roster). Safeco was empty the majority of last season, and I imagine it will set record lows this yr for attendence. You can't tell me that ownership is cool with record low attendence, another uncompetitive club, constant issues between players and managers, and of course Jack still has the Lueke thing hanging over him. |
| 23. By: Timberwolf on 04-09-2011 15:11:15 Jack inherited a trainwreck. Exactly how many of Bill Bavasi's amateur and professional acquisitions have gone on to be anything more than pedestrian role players here or anywhere else? Jack may not be the guy to win a championship, but I have a high degree of confidence that he will at least create a competent and competitive consistent borderline playoff team. When Pat Gillick got to Seattle, he had something to work with. Jack got Ichiro, Felix, and a virtual expansion team. Mediocre is a substantial improvement over historically pathetic. If this team does lose 95 games, that means they didn't achieve mediocrity and that Wedge was the wrong guy. Picking two unsuccessful managers in a row would mean that Jack is the Peter Principle and that GM is his level of incompetence. The next GM would still inherit a better situation than Jack started with. |
| 24. By: StandinPat on 04-09-2011 15:31:50 Did I miss something? Did our season just end 155 games earlier than everyone else's? Holy geez, it was ONE blowout, it happens. |
| 25. By: Blowgun7 on 04-09-2011 15:39:56 I agree that he'll create a competent team to take forward, whether it's under his helm or the next GMs.. That being said, how impressed should I be, if 2-3 years from now we have a strong young nucleus? He's going to have a bunch of high picks.. do i give him credit for putting such bad products on the field that we keep getting high draft picks? If he gets to draft three Top 5 picks in 3-4 years, I would certainly expect the team to have a damn good core in a few years.. Bottomline, is that it's year three.. and the big league club is still hideous... Will we be good in 2013? I would hope so, just not sure any GM can last that long, when in the meantime the big league squad is uninspiring, out of contention early, and the attendence plummeting.. that won't change this year.. and it likely won't change next year unless Jack is able to sign a big free agent bat, or is able to pull off some excellent trades.. Bottomline, is that I think he'll need to do that in order to ever see 2013.. In the meantime, he better hope Pineda, Smoak, and Ackley put up good 2011s because if he's selling management on "wait, we're going to be good soon" he better get big performances from these guys.. Moore is already shot IMO, and Saunders doesn't seem to be getting much of a look. |
| 26. By: Lailoken on 04-09-2011 15:56:39 Comparing GMZ to Epstein is a bit futile at this point. Epstein did not inherit Carlos Silva, Yuniesky Betancourt, et al. Million-Dollar Players GMZ Inherited & Are Now Gone Beltre, Silva, Washburn, Batista, Johjima, Putz, Betancourt, & Lopez Million-Dollar Players that GMZ Has Acquired, Still Here Bradley, Figgins, Ja. Wilson, Aardsma, Gutierrez, Cust, Olivo, Vargas, League, Ackley, Ray, & Ryan Million-Dollar Players that GMZ Inherited & Are Still Here Ichiro, Bedard, & Felix Trimming the fat off the payroll while keeping the team semi-competitive has been tough. Getting value for some of those players were impressive moves: Putz for DTFT, Betancourt for Cortes, & Washburn for Robles. Bradley, Wilson, Cust, & Ray are only signed through this year. Aardsma, Olivo, & League are through 2012. Money payements sent to complete deals involving Silva & Betancourt (6.5 million total in 2011) also come off the books before 2012. This type of rebuilding job is better judged in year 5 (see talent in article above). I'm not happy that that's what it takes but the state of the roster dictated such a strategy. |
| 27. By: Blowgun7 on 04-09-2011 16:10:46 Once again, I'm not knocking Jack.. the team was a disaster when he inherited it.. I just don't know if upper management is going to accept another 90-100 loss season from him. I think he's done a better than average job with things: He was able to bring in Gutierrez, Vargas, Smoak, Lueke, Beavan, Cortes, Robles, and Aardsma for nothing... Those are 8 big leaguers (in some capacity) who don't cost a ton.. Unfortunately, he missed on Morrow and gave Figgins a bad deal.. Also, wasted first round picks on Fields and Baron.. However, I think he certainly has made more beneficial transactions then negative ones.. I have no doubt this team will be a helluva lot more entertaining in a couple years.. However, the only way I see Jack getting to see 2013 is if he gets management to buy into the long term plan, and then is able to have a big 2011 offseason, where he uses his prospects and/or money to bring in some legitimate middle of the order hitting. |
| 28. By: VikingArthur on 04-09-2011 16:51:49 Blowgun... Fields was a parting gift by Bavasi... Jack is definitely the right man for the job. Everyone, including ownership, knew that we would be less than good this year. Hopefully Bradley, Cust and Aardsma can play well and/or continue to play well and build some value for Jack to play with at the trade deadline. 2012 will be a .500+ plus season and 2013 will be the year we are ready to contend. Never underestimate having two legitimate top of the rotation aces has...and I have little doubt that we have them now. |
| 29. By: StandinPat on 04-09-2011 17:59:08 "Also, wasted first round picks on Fields and Baron" This is an awful argument for two reasons 1) As stated before, this regime did not draft Fields, and had they not signed him, they would have had to sign the comp pick or risk losing it. The budget was already close to shot from the beginning because they knew Ackley wouldn't come cheap, it's not like they had a ton of options. Baron however, is a prep catcher with one year of professional experience. You may not like the pick, but it's not like his career has already been written. And it's one pick. Also from those two drafts, Ackley, Franklin, Littlewood, Jones, Pothyress, Seager, Walker, Shipers, Paxton, Pryor, Snow, etc... Yeah they're really wasting picks out there. 2) I don't know why people keep using this Jack and the draft argument. Tom McNamara is in charge of the draft. Sure, Jack oversees and has input, but people need to stop this Jack picked this guy or passed over that guy. He is in charge of the overall product and putting the right people in the right places, but Jack didn't sign Pimental either. |
| 30. By: Lailoken on 04-09-2011 20:12:30 The #2 pick in 2011, a likely top ten pick in 2012, dead weight falling off the roster, money freed up next offseason, & plenty of cost-effective homegrown talent coming through the pipeline... this team is in prime position. What more could upper-management want? If they are at all realistic he has at least another year. A potent bat or two can be added next season to a relatively inexpensive lineup of Smoak, Ichiro, Ackley, DTFT, Ryan, Olivo, & Figgins. If Figgins, Aardsma, &/or League are traded then there will be even more money to play with. By 2012 the pen could be crazy cheap with Cortes, Lueke, Fields, Pryor, & Kelley as righties. A bat or two at 3B, LF, & DH with talents like Rendon (if drafted), Littlewood, Jones, Tenbrink, Morban, Pimentel, Raben, Poythress, Castillo, Liddi, Triunfel, Morla, Chavez, Halman, C. Peguero, & E. Peguero looking to challenge for those spots soon. Saunders may establish himself this year. Franklin &/or Moore may present inexpensive replacements for Ryan &/or Olivo in 2012. Heck, when Ichiro re-signs he will be old enough his salary will drop a tod offsetting some of the increase in the King's salary. This team is setup well if Smoak is a legit middle-of-the-order hitter & if Pineda learns to throw a change-up. Those two things are far more important in my mind than this team's W-L record in 2011 or the development of Saunders & Moore this season. |
| 31. By: Madison Mariner on 04-09-2011 20:18:20 "Bradley, Wilson, Cust, & Ray are only signed through this year. Aardsma, Olivo, & League are through 2012." In the first group, it's a common misconception that Cust is only "under contract" through 2011. The M's signed him to a 1-year contract for 2011, it's true. However, he's under team control through the end of 2012 since the A's manipulated his service time last year with the outright assignment to AAA for about a month in May. He can't get to the necessary 6 years of service time needed to become a free agent by the end of 2011, so the M's will have a decision on whether to tender him a contract for 2012 next offseason. In the second group, the M's do have an option on Olivo for 2013. "Unfortunately, he missed on Morrow and gave Figgins a bad deal.." Eh..I'm still a "wait and see" on the Morrow for League and Chavez deal. Sure, it didn't look good based on 2010's results, but it could still turn our way yet. Something about Morrow makes me nervous--I see he's already been on the DL this year. Not saying it will turn in our favor, or continue to work in the Jays' favor--just saying that the jury's still out. Figgins' deal being described as "bad"..maybe. If Figgins continues his 2010 ways much longer, I'll grant you that one. I'm still hoping he'll regress/progress closer to his career mean and start getting on base. At the very least, build up some value so maybe we could get something for him next offseason if possible. |
| 32. By: Blowgun7 on 04-09-2011 20:20:53 I'm excited about a lot of our young players too.. but are you really counting on Raben, Liddi, Morla, Halman, and Peguero? None of these will likely mount to much, if anything. You're also listing guys who are 18-19 years old, some which haven't even played full season minor league ball.. Talk about Ackley, Pineda, Franklin, and Cole/Rendon.. Those other guys have a lot of work to do before they are legit ML talents |
| 33. By: Blowgun7 on 04-09-2011 20:33:28 #31.. Who is taking Figgins with two yrs left on that deal this offseason? Barring a total 180 from last yr, we're stuck with that guy and his contract, or we'll have to eat almost all of it, if we do move him |
| 34. By: Lailoken on 04-09-2011 20:48:22 If we can unload Silva & Betancourt we can unload a rehabilitated Figgins. His current slide aside, I expect him to bounceback this season. He won't repeat the value of his 2009 performance again but he can be a net gain. I'm not counting on those five players but in two years one of them could be contending for one of those starting spots if they make adjustments. Raben at DH is an especially legitimate possibility. The other four have holes in their swings to close but stranger things have happened. I will admit that to me Liddi likely never makes it because his glove likely doesn't play at third & his bat doesn't look like it's going to improve enough to play at first. What's wrong with listing 18-19 year olds when the phrasing says that those players will look to challenge for those spots soon? Soon to me means that by the end of 2012 we may know enough about those players that they could be serious candidates at that point. Management will weigh the talent on the horizon when considering whether GMZ should be retained. A Morban or Littlewood could well be knocking on the door of the bigs after two full professional seasons. |
| 35. By: Lailoken on 04-09-2011 20:50:35 Serious candidates for the near future at that point. |
| 36. By: FWBrodie on 04-10-2011 03:21:43 Jason, can you do us a favor and write the most upbeat, homeriffic, Mariner farm loving article of your career tomorrow? I don't care if you're exaggerating or blatantly lying. The big league product has been so F-ing depressing these past few days I think we could all use a pick-me-up. Tell us Ackley is going to fix it all, please. |
| 37. By: Marlin Man on 04-10-2011 08:43:16 I think Jason has a BIG announcement coming out SUnday about a new catcher that has turned up "out of nowhere"- the Kid was even born and raised in Washington, led his league in HR power and threw out a staggering 65% of ALL runners, and zero errors for the entire season. He has been out playing on the golf tour, but figures it is time to come back to his first love- Baseball!!! Has signed a "make do- or die" cak with Z- all or nothing--- If he gets 300 AB and does not hit above .270 with MORE than 24 HR,s he will play for free. Name you may ask:: The Aberdeen Assassine! Go ahead Jason- share with all our BB Brothers, you are going to be famous finding this guy for Z (I hear theya re gonna give you 25% of the contract??? M.M. |
| 38. By: rocketdawg31 on 04-10-2011 10:38:37 I'm excited about Julio Morban being healthy. Hope the Gods Of Injury are done looking coldly his way for awhile. I've always had a hunch (no, not predicated on ANYTHING substantial or scientific, like video or a scouting report) this kid will put up numbers in the long run. Of course, I'm gonna prefer that the guy put up a good season of numbers for me to reference rather than this flimsiest of gut feelings, but something about the name and what tools he does possess just have "the ring of right" to me. |
| 39. By: Timberwolf on 04-10-2011 15:44:57 Figgins is the worst mistake of jack's tenure. Giving up a high pick to a division rival for an overpaid non-impact player is not a good thing to do.Even if he produces numbers close to what he did with the angels, the acquisition sucks. That being said, it doesn't mean that Figgins is worthless to another team. He does provide versatility and is a competent lead-off hitter, which could be valuable to a good team that suffers a serious injury. Figgins is not an impact bat who improves a bad offense. He could help a contending team using him as a lead-off or #9 hitter. Hopefully Jack can move him and get some young kids. |
| 40. By: rjfrik on 04-11-2011 11:35:35 I'm not sure how many of you are ESPN Insiders, but you should be if you aren't. Here is a snippet from Jason's article about the most consistent prospects this season. There are about a dozen of them and one is Cole. "If you surround him with a major league defense, he's a No. 2 starter in the big leagues right now," said one regional supervisor. "He only gives up anything when something happens that he can't control. That's a dominant starting pitcher. The more and more I hear about this guy the more I kind of want him over Rendon. He's like a Strasburg and will be fast tracked to the Bigs. Could you imagine Felix, Cole, Pineda as your 1-2-3 next year. Holy smokes. I know we don't have any offense but geez that is a formidable trio. Could be looking at a Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz redux. On another note. There are some amazing things said about Lindor as well, man I would love to have that kid as well. I think he ends up being very good. I have to say the way this season is shaking out we should start looking into who will be the top 3 draft prospects for 2012. Ugh. |
| 41. By: rocketdawg31 on 04-11-2011 11:45:42 rjfrik- Yeah, if Cole comes to us at #2, I will shed NO tears. But we could really, REALLY use a healthy Anthony Rendon in the org. I realize it's not much of a roll of the dice for Jack- one of them will be gone and one will be there, and all he has to do is call out the name of the one that's left. But I'm voting for us to have Rendon, and James Paxton becoming the #3 pitcher (behind Felix and Pineda) in a helluva good major league rotation. And I don't have a sliver of doubt in my mind Pineda will maximize his skills. That guy gets the picture, understands what he can be. |
| 42. By: rocketdawg31 on 04-11-2011 11:56:50 Re: 2012 draft I can only think of a couple guys that might be in that top 3 bracket. I think Marrero of Arizona State will be draft-eligible and so will Goodwin from North Carolina. Maybe Appel, the RHP from Stanford? That's one area, though, I'll gladly defer to what Jason and Chris say. But a surface scan of the 2012 draft has me thinking "not quite as deep as the 2011 draft". The 2011 draft is gonna be fun. |
| 43. By: baseballman on 04-11-2011 12:23:02 Cole or Rendon? Rendon or Cole? Either way, in just 2 short months we are getting a potential stud that's close to major league ready. I can't wait for the draft! |
| 44. By: Adam T on 04-11-2011 12:31:01 Jason - I've seen Keith Law mention a couple of times that there are a couple of scouts/evaluators who like Baez over Lindor. Where do you see Baez going in the draft? Sounds like he likely will not last until the second round. |
| 45. By: dawgncarolina on 04-11-2011 16:18:57 "and so will Goodwin from North Carolina" isn't he the guy who got kicked out of UNC, had to transfer to JUCO, and is now going to be eligible for the 11 draft? Or is that a different player? |
| 46. By: swoopy on 04-11-2011 17:01:14 Anyone know anything about draft prospects for Cole's teammate, Trevor Bauer ... posting excellent numbers (97 strikeouts in 64 innings to 22 walks) ...? |
| 47. By: rocketdawg31 on 04-11-2011 20:13:55 No, you're totally right, dawgncarolina. I was going on hazy memory and pulling the names I could remember out of there... and had totally forgotten he got into trouble and transferred to Miami Dade (Raul Ibanez and a zillion others played JUCO ball there,too). |
| 48. By: rjfrik on 04-11-2011 20:56:31 Maybe because of his past Goodwin could slip to us in the second!! One can hope. I do know this, if a high talent slips to us because of bonus demands we better pony up the cash. This draft, in my opinion is a once in lifetime opportunity to steal a high first round talent in the second round. With all the talent available if a guy demands a ton I could see him falling because teams can just pick up another stud. God I can't wait for the draft!! Go Mac!! |
| 49. By: rjfrik on 04-11-2011 21:26:47 Jason, Just read your new article. With Susac's injury how far does he slip out of the first round, if any? Think he can slip to the M's in the second, third or fourth? If so how much of a hit, if any, does his mlb projection take. I know you lose your power with that injury and that can take about a year to come back. |
| 50. By: dewey on 04-12-2011 03:54:09 Im laughing out loud was there any better prospects ever then 2A san antonio in 03-04 think back im not gonna name names this group we have in the min or leagues couldnt hold this groups jock but we our promoting it like its great.They our prospects most fail and our M.L. offense sucks even after that 4-5 walk performance in the 8th tonight this team offense is worse then last years hands down. |
| 51. By: dewey on 04-12-2011 03:59:45 Why dont we release B radley the Cubs allready admitted they made there mistake with Silva? I tghink Saunders needs to play every day if Smoak does lets find out what these two our we our gonnas be a bad team lets be bad with young guys atleast? |
| 52. By: dawgncarolina on 04-12-2011 07:49:27 "Im laughing out loud was there any better prospects ever then 2A san antonio in 03-04 think back im not gonna name names this group we have in the min or leagues couldnt hold this groups jock" Ummm, no one in SA 03 was anywhere near the prospect that Ackley or Pineda are, and the same can be said for 04 unless you're counting Felix's 57 innings there. Nageotte/Blackley/Lopez/whoever else you're referencing were not the same caliber of prospects as Ackley and Pineda, and their BA rankings back that up. They were more in line with what Franklin is now. |
| 53. By: baseballman on 04-12-2011 13:32:53 Thanks dawg. I read deweys comment 5 times and I still had no idea what he was trying to say. Now I get it. And dawg is correct, Ackley and Pineda are much better prospects than I think the ones dewey was referring to and that has nothing to do with "fans" |
| 54. By: dewey on 04-12-2011 13:33:06 Ryan Anderson was a better prospect then either of these guys and Pineda wasnt even on the map until last year .Im not so sure that those guys in the early 2000s werent better propects i will leave that up to Jason he has seen them all alot.BA rankings arent the have all by the way those our what scouting directors tell the people when you have guys like Chuchill you our getting a honest opinion not the opinion of someone who gave a kid 2 million if you get my drift! |
| 55. By: Edman on 04-12-2011 14:16:27 While I'm one of the first not to fall in love with BA, ESPN, or anyone else's prospect rankings, you're completely wrong if you think BA is feed by the major league organizations. They do their own scouting. Certainly, more hype is given to certain organizations, it's true of most media. Ryan Anderson was a very good prospect, but I'm not sure he was a better prospect than Gerritt Cole is going to be, or Strasburg, or even Ackley. I fully understand that any prospect can fail, no matter how good. But, you can't discount their value. And where did you pull the release Bradley stuff from? Really? He's hitting the ball much better than he did last year. He's not stealing time from Saunders, at this point. And what exactly has Langerhans shown with extended playing time over his career? Is there a great talent at Tacoma that's being blocked? I'm not a grammer cop, but dewey, a few commas ever now and the would help to break-up those run-on sentences. I have to read your posts several times to get to your point. The M's aren't going to get turned around over night. It's about progress. Some young arms are developing. Some more are on their way. If Bradley and Wilson can get time to improve their trade value, that too can help. There is never one path to winning. |
| 56. By: StandinPat on 04-12-2011 14:36:50 "if you get my drift!" Nope. Those prospects in the early 200's don't hold a candle to what we have now. "Ryan Anderson was a better prospect then either of these guys and Pineda wasnt even on the map until last year" So the ef what? One bad apple doesn't spoil the whole bunch girl. After Anderson there was a huge drop-off. Just because Nageotte and Blackley were ranked highly in our system then, doesn't mean they would have now or in many other systems. Walker and Paxton are considerably better prospects and honestly Beaven and Robles are prob a better duo. Nageotte had one plus pitch, his slider, and Blackley was a finesse lefty in the mold of Frierebend, Thomas and Rohrbaugh. How successful have those skillsets been in the past? And as far as Anderson goes, he always had the huge question mark that is his height. There aren't many successful 6'10" pitchers for a reason. "They our prospects most fail" Yes, some prospects fail, but you know what the other ones do? They succeed. To immediately write off all prospects because the success rate isn't off the charts, is basically just giving up on a huge part of building an organization. And where exactly do you think all the new stars in baseball came from? They didn't just congeal somewhere, they were once prospects as well. Lastly, I'm so sick and tired of people bitching and moaning about others discussing and pontificating about the prospects in our system. This website is PROSPECTinsider.com, not establishedveteran.com, professionalhitter.com or youngplayersneverpanout.com. |
| 57. By: dawgncarolina on 04-12-2011 14:49:38 Ryan Anderson was not on San Antonio in 2003 or 2004. In fact he never pitched in 2003 or 2004. And he never played in San Antonio. And yes, he was a much hyped pitching prospect who got it. That has never happened before. Otherwise, great example. |
| 58. By: dawgncarolina on 04-12-2011 14:52:59 "Just because Nageotte and Blackley were ranked highly in our system then, doesn't mean they would have now or in many other systems. Walker and Paxton are considerably better prospects and honestly Beaven and Robles are prob a better duo. Nageotte had one plus pitch, his slider, and Blackley was a finesse lefty in the mold of Frierebend, Thomas and Rohrbaugh." Meh, I can't really agree with this either. Nageotte and Blackley were at one point more highly regarded amongst M's fans and around baseball than Walker and Paxton. Those two may develop into better prospects, but they are certainly not at that level at this point in time. Beavan and Robles aren't even close. Nageotte led the minors in strikeouts multiple times. He had more question marks than Pineda, but not as many as any of those other guys you listed. |
| 59. By: slamcactus on 04-12-2011 16:24:20 Nageotte & Blackley circa 2003 >>>> Walker & Paxton circa 2011. It's really not even close. Walker and Paxton may have more upside, but Nageotte and Blackley were far better prospects then than W & P are now. It's not a great idea to respond to a misinformed, flat-out incorrect statement on one extreme with an equally absurd response on the opposite extreme. Now, if the Ms were looking at Pineda and Cole as their top 2 young pitchers, then yes, those two players are both significantly better prospects than Nageotte and Blackely ever were. |
| 60. By: dewey on 04-12-2011 16:50:25 Cole pitches for UCLA i think? Beaven and Robles better prospects we disagree on this one by quite a bit.I love propects thats why i read this site but im waiting to hear Jasons reply on these subjects because i believe out of all of us he has seen all of these guys talked with them got there makeup and intellegence and other factors that go ionto it.Also before Anderson got hurt he was considered the best LH prospect in baseball he got hurt and didnt make it after a dominate campaign in Tacome it was a shame because i did see him and he could have been really special he had unreal stuff. |
| 61. By: baseballman on 04-12-2011 18:05:05 Considering Walker and Paxton are just recently being introduced in professional baseball, it's a little unfair to compare them to guys who have pitched in pro ball for sometime. But I think given time, Walker and Paxton will prove to be much better prospects than Blackely and Nageotte. To me Walker and Paxton have much higher ceilings. Time will tell though. |
| 62. By: Edman on 04-12-2011 20:20:12 Agreed, baseballman. Proclaiming that a pitcher who has yet to pitch A ball, is somehow more gifted that someone who has, isn't at all logical. They may possess all the skills necessary to succeed, but until they have actually done it at a pro level, it's not really worth trying to compare. |
| 63. By: StandinPat on 04-12-2011 21:07:14 "Nageotte & Blackley circa 2003 >>>> Walker & Paxton circa 2011. It's really not even close" "It's not a great idea to respond...with an equally absurd response on the opposite extreme" So even though Paxton and Walker have more upside, by your own admission, its absurd to call them better prospects? Nageotte and Blackley both had the upside of back of the rotation starters while both Paxton and Walker have the potential to be TOR types. Additionally, Nageotte and Blackley both had huge red flags that people seemed to want to ignore because A) We simply didn't have anything else, and B)They were able to have crazy success in the lower minors. The latter part being ironic as the red flag was that their skillsets lent themselves to dominating in the lower minors, but having more and more difficulty as they faced more polished hitters. And what happend? From A to AA to AAA, those astronomical K rates started to plummet while the walks and hits both crept up. I agree Walker and Paxton aren't without their caveats, more so on Walker's side, but it's not like either of them have anything that jumps out and says "players with this skillset rarely succeed" |
| 64. By: StandinPat on 04-12-2011 21:20:09 #62 Um, really? So pre-draft we couldn't say Strasburg was more gifted than say Rich Dorman, because he hadn't yet thrown an inning of professional ball but Dorman had? Not buying it, especially when the basis behind scouting prospects is trying to project their future. Prospect : Noun a. an apparent probability of advancement, success, profit, etc. b. the outlook for the future: good business prospects. If player A has a much greater "probability of advancement" than player B, would you still take player B based on past success in the lower minors? |
| 65. By: dawgncarolina on 04-12-2011 22:40:59 I think you're doing some extreme revisionist history on Nageotte and Blackley, Pat. They were not considered BOR prospects at best. Nags was considered a 2/3, and Blackley was considered a solid MOR guy. At this point, neither Walker or Paxton are considered that highly in the industry. They may one day be, but I for one will be surprised if they're ever simultaneously top 50 prospects in all of baseball like Nags/Blackley were. |
| 66. By: StandinPat on 04-15-2011 02:01:04 I'd like to think of it more as historical re-evaluation. Don't get me wrong, I was all about both those guys back in the day, but I also didn't know squat about looking at peripherals, skill-sets and physical makeup at that time. Looking back at Nageotte, he had a dynamite slider and spotty fastball command, not a great recipe for future success, and Blackley, was a finesse lefty with a better curveball than most the other finesse lefties of his ilk. Neither one of those things sound like high-upside guys to me, and more often than not, players with those skillsets fizzle out at the higher levels. All I'm saying is, I'll take the two guys with the physical abilities to be frontline starters vs the two guys who need everything to break the right way to become a "2/3" and a "solid MOR." And I still contend that those projections were completely tied to the sick numbers they put up in the lower minors, and not a realization of physical abilities. "but I for one will be surprised if they're ever simultaneously top 50 prospects in all of baseball like Nags/Blackley were." I honestly doubt they will both be top 50 prospects at the same time as well, as I think Paxton will exhaust his prospect status pretty quickly, but just for clarification, the only year Blackley was a top 100 prospect was pre-2004 where he sat at #63, and Nageotte was #45. They were never simultaneously top 50 prospects, and Nageotte was only situated there once, that pre-2004 ranking. |
| 67. By: dawgncarolina on 04-15-2011 03:27:49 Point well taken. I'll restate it - I doubt they'll simultaneously ever be top 75 prospects. :) And I understand you're reevaluating with the benefit of hindsight, but I think you're reevaluation is biased towards the results. Nageotte was a BA top 100 prospect four years in a row (72, 76, 45, 73). Certainly, his productivity influenced that, but BA has always been slanted towards potential over production. We're talking about a guy who was considered to have a plus fastball and plus plus slider. He wasn't a one pitch guy. Yes, his control was a concern, otherwise he would have been in the top 20 with those two pitches. He was great at keeping in the ball in the park as well. Neither Paxton nor Walker has a demonstrated plus plus pitch (Walker's fastball could be that but we're a long way from him showing he can throw it 98mph for strikes in the seventh inning). I categorically disagree with the idea that their upsides are higher than Nageotte's was. I also disagree with the notion that they don't need everything to break right to become "2/3"/"solid MOR" guys. Paxton's clearly not going to be a number 1, and while Walker could theoretically become one if his secondary stuff takes about two giant strides forward while his health, stamina, control, command and makeup hold steady or improve, the odds of that are astronomical. The best projections for him are as a #2, which is no higher than Nageottes were. Walker has the potential to have a #2 starter's repertoire. Nags was MUCH, much closer to the bigs with a #2 starters repertoire. You're only invalidating what he could do now because it fell apart at the top. OTOH, you have a better case with Blackley. In retrospect, we should have been more alarmed that he lost 3.3 k's/9 when he hit Double A, and scared to death that he lost another 1.5 k's when he hit Tacoma. We were all still obsessed with ERA back then, and everyone loved the Aussie's makeup. He had the least stuff of the 4 we're discussing, but he wasn't Craig Anderson, or even Bobby Livingston either. If he had those guys' stuff, he wouldn't have been ranked like he was. BA never ranks a guy just because he puts up numbers. His stuff was just a tick below a guy like Erik Bedard's, who's been quite successful (when healthy). |
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