Prospect Insider - 2013 MLB Draft Preview

2013 MLB Draft Preview

By Jason A. Churchill

By 02-09-2013

This weekend Division I schools began their baseball season, so it's officially draft time, so to speak. The class is not particularly deep, but relatively speaking it has its strengths as well as its weaknesses.

This is year two of the new mandate that puts a cap on spending, but one thing that did not change in 2012 is the fact that the best players don't come off the board first. Clubs are still working the system and finding ways to get better-than-slot talents after the first round.

Let's take a look at the best in the class of 2013, at least how it appears at the start of the campaign.

Potential first-round college pitching
Mark Appel, RHP -- Stanford
Sean Manaea, LHP -- Indiana State
Ryne Stanek, RHP -- Arkansas
Jonathan Crawford, RHP -- Florida
Bobby Wahl, RHP -- Mississippi
Dillon Overton, LHP -- Oklahoma
Marco Gonzalez, LHP -- Gonzaga
Ryan Eades, RHP -- LSU
Kevin Ziomek, LHP -- Vanderbilt
Tom Windle, LHP -- Minnesota
A.J. Vanegas, RHP -- Stanford
Trey Masek, RHP -- Texas Tech
Colby Suggs, RHP -- Arkansas
Jarsten Whitson, RHP -- Florida

Appel, Manaea and Stanek could contend for the top overall pick. Suggs is the top college reliever in the class. Vanegas will not be healthy for another 2-4 weeks. Whitson is the wildcard as he's a top 15 pick if healthy.

Potential first-round college hitters
Kris Bryant, 3B -- San Diego
Colin Moran, 3B -- North Carolina
Austin Wilson, OF -- Stanford
D.J. Peterson, 3B -- New Mexico
Aaron Judge, OF -- Fresno State
Phillip Ervin, OF -- Samford
Eric Jagielo, 3B -- Notre Dame
Brian Ragira, 1B -- Stanford
Conrad Gregor, 1B -- Vanderbilt
JaCoby Jones, 2B/CF -- LSU
Chad Pinder, 3B -- Virginia Tech
Daniel Palka, 1B -- Georgia Tech

Not a terrible group here. Moran is the best hitter in the class and Bryant brings plus raw power and the arm strength to play in right field. Judge is built like an NFL tight end and has untapped power potential -- he has just six home runs as a collegiate, though he's homered twice off Appel.

Potential first-round high school pitchers
Stephen Gonsalves, LHP -- Cathedral Catholic HS (Calif.)
Kohl Stewart, RHP -- St. Pius X HS (Texas)
Jordan Sheffield, RHP -- Tullahoma HS (Tenn.)
Ian Clarkin, LHP -- Madison HS (Calif.)
Clinton Hollon, RHP -- Woodford County HS (Ky.)
Garrett Williams, LHP -- Calvary Baptist HS (La.)
A.J. Puk, LHP -- Washington HS (Ia.)
Rob Kaminsky, LHP -- St. Joseph Reg. HS (N.J.)
Dustin Driver, RHP -- Wenatchee HS (Wash.)

Stewart suffered an injury during football season and won't be ready to go right from the get-go, but he should have enough time to prove he's first-round worthy. Hollon, perhaps the best pure arm in the group, is also battling back from injury. There are several good arms on smaller frames in this draft, Hollon and Kaminsky included.

Potential first-round high school hitters
Austin Meadows, OF -- Grayson HS (Ga.)
Justin Williams, OF -- Terrabonne HS (La.)
Trey Ball, OF -- New Castle HS (Ind.)
Jonathan Denny, C -- Yukon HS (Okla.)
Clint Frazier, OF -- Loganville HS (Ga.)
Oscar Mercado, SS -- Gaither HS (Fla.)
J.P. Crawford, SS -- Lakewood HS (Calif.)
Ryan Boldt, OF -- Red Wing HS (Minn.)
Travis Demeritte,3B -- Winder-Barrow HS (Ga.)
Reese McGuire, C -- Kenwood HS (Wash.)

Meadows and Denny top this class, but Williams, Mercado, Crawford and Frazier all have a chance to climb into the middle third of the first round.

As always, this is just a snapshot of the top talents. Some will see their stock fade, and some names not mentioned here will pop up with big-time momentum.

I'll produce a Top 50 after the prep kids are a few weeks into their season.

For future reference, here is the FULL draft order, with up-to-date compensation results.

Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse are the only remaining free agents tied to compensation

The Angels, Braves and Nationals surrendered first-round picks to sign free agents. The Rays, Rangers, Angels and Yankees (2), picked up compensatory picks after round 1 for the loss of qualifying free agents

It's worth noting that Zack Greinke did not qualify for draft-pick compensation because he did not spend all of 2012 with the Angels

The Marlins and Tigers swapped competitive balance selections as part of the trade that sent Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to Detroit

The Seattle Mariners select 12, 48, 85, 117 and then every 30 picks after that

The Mets could sign Bourn and keep their pick at No. 11 and instead surrender a second rounder, which would be No. 84 overall. If that occurs, everyone simply moves up a spot

Northwest's Top Prospects
Marco Gonzalez, LHP -- Gonzaga
Dustin Driver, RHP -- Wenatchee HS (Wash.)
Reese McGuire, C -- Kentwood HS (Wash.)
John Pomeroy, RHP -- Mossyrock HS (Wash.)
David Garza, IF -- Othello HS (Wash.)
Matt Decker, C -- Jesuit HS (Ore.)
Ian Hamilton, RHP/OF -- Skyview HS (Wash.)
Logan Ice, C/1B -- Rogers HS (Wash.)
Ryan Littlefield, OF -- WF West (Wash.)
Michael Sexton, IF -- Rogers HS (Wash.)

The top three listed each have a shot at the first round. This group, like the national rankings, will change and is only for general purposes. Once the high school season is well under way, I'll post a top 20.

Mariners focus
This could be the year the Mariners tab a high upside prep position player such as Frazier, Smith, Bryant, Williams, or even Meadows if he falls far enough. Moran may be the Mariners type, however; a polished bat with good makeup and an advanced approach to the game.

Shortstops Mercado and Crawford could be intriguing picks at 12, too, but I imagine Tom McNamara will ultimately target a bigger offensive ceiling with that pick.

It will be difficult, however, to convince me -- and perhaps the M's, too, when it comes down to it -- to pass on any of the top four or five college pitchers, perhaps even down to Ole Miss's Wahl and Florida's Crawford, if any are on the board at No. 12.

Crawford's Pre-season Draft Guide
You can buy Crawford's 2013 MLB Draft Guide right here for just a buck. Really.

It includes scouting notes, grades and goes 100 deep. Great place to start. Do it.

2013-mlb-draft-preview

Comments
The following 9 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Lonnie on 02-09-2013 03:01:24
Personally, I'm hoping to get D.J. Peterson out of New Mexico with that 12th pick. The M's tried to get him back in '10 out of High School in the 33rd round, but it just didn't happen.

Peterson is a 6'1", 205 lb 1st/3rd baseman who from the very first day on campus was a team leader. As a freshman he lead the Lobos in just about every statistical category. As a Sophomore last year he cranked things up a couple of notches and brought home some serious bling (Louisville Slugger First Team All-American, Mountain West Co-Player of the Year, Semifinalist for the Golden Spikes and the Dick Howser Trophy, and named to USA Baseball's Collegiate National Team).

The best thing about Peterson, for me, is that he and his Lobos will be coming to Colorado Springs in early April, so I'll be able to get a first hand look at the kid :)

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-09-2013 04:10:36
Peterson is a player the Mariners do like a lot and they did try to get him before. Peterson at 12, as things stand right now, is a reach.

We'll see how it all progresses, however.

I'll see Peterson in Tempe on March 13.

3. By: shemberry on 02-09-2013 06:06:08
Littlefield is from Mark Morris High School in Longview, not WF West.

4. By: Paul Martin on 02-09-2013 09:43:32
Jason,

Any chance Bourn or Lohse remain unsigned until AFTER the draft so a team would not have to give up its 1st round pick? At one point does Boras lower his demands and accept the best offer out there?

5. By: rotoenquire on 02-09-2013 12:51:13
I am a C. Moran guy. I rate his bat like that of Zunino and can be tapped to stay at 3B. I also think he would be the fastest bat to the majors. Then I would hope the M's move P. Kivlehan to LF. His speed is high end and think he could be on a faster track if he moved to the OF.

6. By: cpuglisi on 02-09-2013 13:01:30
My guy is Justin Williams. He almost looks like he has so much raw ability to pass up. It would be sort of a project for the M's but I think it is worth the risk. Jason any sneaky picks the M's could make in the late rounds? Another reliever or another Paxton or a power bat in the late rounds.

7. By: rjfrik on 02-09-2013 16:34:20
It's hard to "have a guy" this year for the M's because we pick at #12. In past years with our top 5 picks we could all "have a guy" because we knew that player would most likely be there. This year is different. This year, you take the best player that falls to you and call it a day, a pitcher, position player, doesn't matter, whoever falls.

I personally hope a position player the M's really like falls to them, but I will be fine with a pitcher as well.

8. By: roosevelt on 02-09-2013 16:54:37
What..... no compensation pick for Figgins?

9. By: maqman on 02-10-2013 05:17:22
We're lucky we didn't lose a pick for releasing Figgins.

I have no idea who the M's will pick but it's nice to have faith that they will most likely get a player with some real value and not just with their first pick but further down the draft as well.

You are not currently logged in. If you'd like to comment on this report, please log in.
Haven't created a Prospect Insider account yet? Sign up!