| By Chris Crawford |  | By 02-04-2011 |
There are 9 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.
Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.
In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.
Around the blog-o-sphere
Larry Stone has an excellent read comparing the parity in the NFL with baseball. Parity is such a controversial word with sports fans, so taking a look at just how much of it exists in baseball was very interesting.
Shannon Drayer wrote about the maturity and growth of Felix Hernandez and the support system he has relied on in the past. It's hard to believe that there were a ton of Felix doubters at one time, and they had a decent reason to be, too.
And over at the TNT, Ryan Divish shows us a T-shirt that is a must own for any Mariner fans. Just a hint to our readers, my birthday is March 9th. Just saying is all.
Luke French
Barring a move, the 1-4 spots in the starting rotation seem set with Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Jason Vargas and Doug Fister. Michael Pineda will more than likely be the 5th starter at some point, but should the M's decide to leave him in Tacoma for a month or two, Luke French might be the next guy in line. French, acquired in the Jarod Washburn trade in July of 2009, has been pretty close to awful in his time in Seattle; putting up an ERA of 5.37 with a 37 to 29 walk to k ratio and giving up well over a hit an inning. In Tacoma, however, the left-handed French has shown some promise, going 11-3 with a 2.94 ERA and a much more appeasing 63 to 23 K/base-on-balls ratio. French -- who won't be 26 til September -- has been equally bad vs. left and right-handed batters (.837 OPS vs right, .816 vs left), so he's not really an option to be a LOOGY at this point. The only other option outside of Pineda and French on the roster would be Blake Beavan, and it'd be an upset for him to make the big-league roster. French will be a guy to watch in Peoria, as he may have a prominent role in the teams success.
Where to take the fam
If you're bringing your significant other on the trip -- and if the kids can't stomach another baseball statistic or listen to you talk about Dustin Ackley anymore -- there's a few good options in the city. If you like a good steak and wine, check out Fleming's Prime Steakhouse and Wine Bar. If you want to enjoy some music or go dancing, Skye Restaurant has comedy, dancing, and live bands -- and some pretty good food, as well. And if the kids want to do something other than watch baseball (perish the thought), Castles N Coasters is a fairly short drive away and has some of the best mini-golf you could find. It's not Vegas or anything like that, but you can definitely find some things to do that will keep the family from moving to another country.
9-days
Comments
The following 24 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: rjfrik on 02-04-2011 01:29:51 Well if any of you are like me and hung up your cleats and glove for spikes and a driver hit up the following. They are a MUST. We-Ko-Pa Dinosaur Mountain Course at Gold Canyon Longbow You can't go wrong with either of those three courses and play them in the order I gave, if you can only play one We-Ko-Pa, two We-Ko and Dinosaur and so on and so forth. You will be glad you did. I played all three when I was there for the National Championship Game in Jan. |
| 2. By: littlelinny6 on 02-04-2011 02:01:39 What about David Pauley for the 5th starter job? I'd much rather have him starting than replacement level French. Also, maybe the price comes down on Kevin Millwood---he could be a great innings eater. The thought of having to watch Luke French start any MLB game is frightening. |
| 3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-04-2011 02:16:34 Pauley isn't any better or worse than French and French has more room to get better. I know, you're looking at Pauley's 4.07 ERA ... stop it. His FIP was 4.94 and his .260 average on balls in play is guaranteed to soar, as that mark is unsustainable, even for many of the best pitchers in baseball. (hint, it was slightly better than Felix's last year, and 30 points better than Roy Halladay.) He served up 13 bombs in 90 frames and doesn't keep the ball on the ground, even in a relief role. And since he isn't going to miss bats ... yeah. There's no reason to have more confidence in Pauley than in French. They are basically the same pitcher, except one of them, French, has been better, and is young enough to expect him to develop into something useful and consistent at the back end. I can understand preferring Beavan, Roe or a free agent like Millwood -- who is asking for 4-plus million and won't be a fit in Seattle unless he accepts a quarter of that -- but Pauley sucks just as much as French. |
| 4. By: eknpdx on 02-04-2011 09:13:40 So what about Bonderman then? Checking out the PitchFx data at Fangraphs says he abandoned his four-seam and went primarily a two-seam to help explain the drop in velocity, although his slider lost mph as the season went on. He also tripled the amount of change ups. Does his baseline represent an upgrade from French? |
| 5. By: shemberry on 02-04-2011 09:18:34 Jason or Chris, How good could Bubba Starling be? Is there a chance the Mariners could take him at #2 if Rendon is gone, or is it too risky due to signability issues and the fact that he is a high schooler? I know that we need ML ready pitching, but this kid seems like he could be special. |
| 6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-04-2011 10:07:36 Bonderman, IMO, would be a better option, because he could get healthier over the next year or two, which might allow for him to return to above-average levels. But Bonderman is expected to sign with the Indians. Shem, Yes. I'll post a draft preview next week covering all those bases, but yes, absolutely. There are concerns with him, though, but I'll cover that next week. |
| 7. By: dewey on 02-04-2011 10:12:09 I s that your opinion our the Mariners counting on Bedard to be part of the rotation? After 3 surgerys i have alot of doubts about that. |
| 8. By: Chris Crawford on 02-04-2011 10:22:51 That's a great point, Dewey. If Bedard can't pitch -- and there's nothing to say he can -- then French might be in the rotation by default. |
| 9. By: safecochatter on 02-04-2011 11:29:33 do you guys think Kyle Seager will eventually be the M's 2nd baseman and Ackley moved to the outfield? also is it realistic that franklin be the opening day ss in 2012? |
| 10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-04-2011 11:55:41 Seager isn't all that good at second, so I see him as a utility type guy. Be nice if he got some time in the outfield this year and next to prepare him for such a role. As for Franklin, I don't want to say it's not realistic, but I'd be surprised if he were ready that soon. I expect at least a few struggles this year and that he starts 2012 in Tacoma. |
| 11. By: littlelinny6 on 02-04-2011 12:16:16 Jason, You mention that Pauley's BABIP of .260 is unsustainable, which I agree. However, French's BABIP last year: .260--so I guess he should expect to be much worse as well. Pauley xFIP: 4.49 French xFIP: 5.71 This is over a full run difference. Pauley's K/BB is much better than French's. You mentioned Pauley doesn't get GB but his GB % last year was 49.8% compared to 32% for French. Basically to say that French and Pauley are basically the same overlooks the majority of all predictive statistics. Pauley has a higher O-Zone Swing % and a lower Contact % too along with a higher Swinging Strike %. In fact, there is nothing that French does better than Pauley other than maybe that he's left handed in Safeco. If anything, given Pauley's GB tendencies (always been > 45%) his HR/FB rate should regress some, hence the reasonable 4.49 xFIP. I am just trying to figure out some way French has been better because the numbers don't support that at all. David Pauley is not a good starter but he gets groundballs, K's a few people and isn't all around terrible like Luke French. I'm all ears to see how they are essentially the same pitcher and how Luke French has been better because I just don't see it. |
| 12. By: baseballman on 02-04-2011 12:49:20 Realistic for us to see Beavan in the rotation this year at some point? Or would an injury have to force an early call up? It would be really nice to see Bedard give us something so no one needs to be rushed up. And Im hoping Fister and Vargas can maintain the level they had last year. I really love the youth that this team should have in the rotation. Felix, Pineda, Fister and Beavan all by next year and we could add a hopefuly Ace with #2 this year. (But I wouldnt mind a bat to add to our young corp of hitters either) |
| 13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-04-2011 12:56:59 linny, Good job ignoring anything and everything that doesn't support your argument for Pauley. Pauley had a better 2010 than French, but if you're going to be that shortsighted and ignorant, you win. Move along now. |
| 14. By: littlelinny6 on 02-04-2011 13:46:18 Like I said, I'm just trying to understand your point of view, that is all. I am quite surprised disagreeing with you has upset you so much and I apologize to you if anything I said came off that way. However, dismissing the most relevant statistical data and calling me ignorant for merely disagreeing with you is unnecessary. I'm only asking for a reasoned response beyond last year's BABIP which was identical for both pitchers. Luke French has a better track record in AAA, is LH in Safeco, and 2 years younger. However, he has never been able to translate any of these factors in ML success. To reiterate I never said Pauley is the next coming of King Felix, just that he is a better bet to help the M's more in 2011. I don't think there is a definitive right answer and I value your opinion, hence me bringing this up in the first place. |
| 15. By: Lailoken on 02-04-2011 14:21:19 Jason, where do you see Nate Robertson in the mix for the fifth starter job? |
| 16. By: Edman on 02-04-2011 14:40:20 I have to agree with Jason about Pauley vs. French. Pauley is as good as he's ever gonna be. French is still developing and has a chance to at least be another Washburn. As for Roberston, I'd think he's a long shot. I wouldn't count on him for anything. |
| 17. By: StandinPat on 02-04-2011 14:53:02 "French is still developing and has a chance to at least be another Washburn." But Wasburn was never very good, so I'm not sure how that's a case for French. Pauley has 119 innings spread over 3 seasons, and French has 155 spread over two. In that time, Pauley has posted higher K/9, lower BB/9 and significantly better GB% and xFIP. While I completely agree that Pauley pretty much is as good as he'll ever be, and French still has some projection in him, so far, Pauley has been slightly above replacement level and French has been awful. So until French actually makes that next step, I'd easily go with Pauley. |
| 18. By: petermag on 02-04-2011 15:09:10 Hey guys, just wanted to chime in and say thanks for these countdowns. Its really cool. Chris has really added to the site and on Twitter. Keep it up. |
| 19. By: Chris Crawford on 02-04-2011 15:58:24 Thanks, Peter. Checks in the mail. Seriously, I can't believe we only have nine days til the P's and C's report. This flew by. |
| 20. By: Edman on 02-04-2011 16:01:55 Was Washburn a solid #3? Nope, but he was good at the #4 and #% roles. He also had some incredible bad luck as a Mariner. Lost leads after letting the bullpen self destruct. French has a chance to grow and develop. Pauley, not so much. Do the M's have an emphasis on winning next year, or developing for the future? Which pitcher stands to play a more important part in the M's future? Pauley or French? I'll take French, thanks. |
| 21. By: StandinPat on 02-04-2011 22:12:00 "but he was good at the #4 and #% roles" Wash was a #5 at best, he only had one season with the M's(his last) where he was worth more than 2 wins and had a sub-5 xFIP. "Which pitcher stands to play a more important part in the M's future? Pauley or French?" Neither Pauley or French has a place in a good rotation, so I'm not sure how valid that reasoning is. Pauley is decent as a long-reliever/swingman now, French isn't of any use in any role currently. Maybe he improves and becomes a non-horrible 5th starter, but that's not really an important "part in the M's future." |
| 22. By: Rick Randall on 02-04-2011 22:44:47 Just for argument sake, Washburn existed before he came to Seattle, too, and he was #3/4-type decent '00-'02 and in '05. |
| 23. By: maqman on 02-05-2011 13:19:56 French had a pretty good season with Tacoma last year, going 11-3 in 17 starts with a 2.94 ERA and a 3.63 FIP. He seems to have some potential. |
| 24. By: slamcactus on 02-07-2011 16:40:43 "Just for argument sake, Washburn existed before he came to Seattle, too, and he was #3/4-type decent '00-'02 and in '05." Washburn's FIP/xFIPs with the Angels (starting w/2002 because that's the farthest back FG gives us xFIP): 2002: 3.71/4.62 2003: 4.97/4.87 2004: 4.52/4.66 2005: 4.35/4.71 That's a whole lot of mediocrity. It's really hard to look at those numbers and see anything other than a true talent back-end starter. His nice results in 2002 came on the back of a ridiculously unsustainable HR/FB% of 6%. You mentioned 2000 and 2001, which aren't on here. In 2000 Washburn threw 84 innings with an absurd .203 BABIP. His FIP that year was 5.79. In 2001 he achieved slightly better results than his peripherals indicated he was capable of sustaining. He didn't sustain those results. Washburn wasn't some kind of Matt Cain-type player who continually out-performed his peripherals and left analyst's heads scratching. He was a back-end starter who had a few years where he got lucky and looked a little bit better than a back-end starter, mixed in with a bunch of years where he didn't get lucky and looked like exactly what he was. He was a little better with LAA than he was in Seattle, but he was never an above-average starter. |
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