Prospect Insider - A's system below average

A's system below average

By Rick Randall

By 02-05-2011

In projecting the expected future level of success of the Seattle Mariners, one of the most important pieces of the puzzle lies in examining the strengths and weaknesses of their key rivals -- the rest of the American League West.

Prior to the 2011 season getting started, Prospect Insider is going to take a look at the organizational strength of each of the teams in the division and do our best to forecast what the future looks like for each club. We kicked things off in December by reviewing the Angels system here, and part two of this series of posts focuses on the Oakland Athletics.

Heading into 2011, the A's have a very young ML team, especially on the mound, where their pitching staff had the youngest average age - an even 26 years old - in the majors last season. And that youngest staff in the majors pitched to the fifth best ERA in the majors at 3.58, which lead the AL. That success was with lefty Brett Anderson, who is their best starter when healthy, missing a couple of months with an elbow injury. After Anderson, the rotation is set with Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden and most likely Brandon McCarthy. That group is very solid, and very young. The bullpen is setup nicely with some young arms as well, including closer Andrew Bailey.

The major league roster has youth in the form of position players,, but the upside in that area falls significantly behind that of the vaunted pitching staff. Needing more bats and being the small market A's, if they want to seriously supplement that offense, the organization is going to have to come from within. Good news for A's fans is that the strength of the farm ystem now lies with such talents.

Much like the Angels, the A's have a very strong history of developing players, and while GM Billy Beane's Moneyball philosophies served the team alright in the late 90s and through the 2000s, the club hasn't been close to the post-season since 2006. They haven't had a position player crack 5.0 WAR in a season since 2004, and if Oakland is to get back to being a perennial contender, their system will have to produce some dynamic bats to team with the young pitching.

PI readers got a glimpse of how pitching-thin the A's organization is below the big leagues during the recent Chone Figgins trade rumors -- you could easily argue that 10 of the top 13 prospects in the organization are position players -- and while many of those have big offensive potential, they also carry big question marks.

Grant Green, Chris Carter, Michael Choice, Michael Taylor, Jemile Weeks, Max Stassi, Adrian Cardenas, Yordy Cabrera, Aaron Shipman and Stephen Parker all rank high withint the Oakland organization, and arms such as Tyson Ross and Ian Kroll. Injured right-hander Michael Ynoa, who could be the best of the bunch if he shows he can bounce back and stay healthy, has yet to get his career untracked.

Some of the questions surrounding the A's top talents include Green's defense improve enough to stick at short, or does he have to move to seocnd or third base, or perhaps the outfield? Can any of Carter, Choice, Taylor or Stassi make enough contact to let their hit tool and power lead the way? Can Carter handle the outfield? Can Taylor regain the promise he showed while in the Phillies System? Can Krol get by against major league hitters with his plus curve while sitting 88-89 with his fastball?

Green is almost certainly their best prospect; he brings the most upside to the table -- a plus offensive shortstop will often be the top prospect in a given system -- and regardless of what Cliff Pennington does, shortstop is Green's if he shows he can handle it. Green showed more than just home run power last season as he collected 66 total extra-base hits, and if he can continues to improve his strike zone judgment, the power will play up.

One scout called Carter a "dead-red bat" and predicts that the strikeout numbers will be Adam Dunn-esque. Because he always looks fastball, he has a tendency to get out front and flail, usually hopelessly, at breaking stuff, and honestly, hitting .258 in the PCL doesn't suggest he's going to hit for average in the big leagues.

Tyson Ross has an electric arm with one of the better sliders in the minors, but his health record is spotty at best, as is his control. He will enter camp with a shot to win a job in the rotation, but I think he ends up in the bullpen long-term.

Weeks is also a question mark on the medical side, and every year loses steam as a potential regular after being the Athletics' first-round pick two years ago. Parker's bat has looked good on paper, impressing many in Arizona, but scouts question his ability to remain at third base. Cardenas offers little outside of batting average and some on-base skills, but he struggled to hit .260 in the Pacific Coast League last season. Shipman is super-toolsy, but what exactly is in his bat remains unknown.

This system has a lot of upside at the plate, but the A's may have problems fitting those pieces onto the field; last I checked, there was only one DH in the lineup. In other words, the A's are by no means set up to ideally plug guys in to their roster as they become ready for the show. One of the points that our Jason A. Churchill outlined in his ESPN Insider piece for top systems was having "the right kind of depth" -- the A's lack that, so we may see them ultimately moves those pieces to find long-term answers. If one or two of the top-end bats tfail to develop, the system will have problems supplementing the major league roster. But in Carter, Choice or Taylor, plus Green, the A's could produce another Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada tandem to team with the young arms already succeeding in the major leagues. That group could lead the A's back to where they want to be, but there's a better than good chance they'll need new options to get that done.

More on Taylor: "The tools are there," said one scout. "I just don't like the mechanics of it all; he's not selective and he's not using his strength, which is the strength in his arms. He doesn't shift his weight well and his swing is built for line drives. Sometimes it's as if he's protecting (the plate) right away, early in the count, and trying to go the other way. I'd rather see him stay back, keep the front shoulder in and cut loose -- explode through the ball. He has tremendous power."

More on Carter: "He does make ballparks look small when he gets a hold of one," an NL assistant GM said. "But Carter's skills are backward to where you'd want them to be. We know he can hit for power, but he's yet to learn to hit. If he does that, he's an all-star ... and I do think he can play right field for a few years without being a detriment, but he's a first baseman in the long haul.”

More on Choice: "I just wonder if he'll make enough contact," one area scout said of last year's No. 10 overall pick. "He can do everything else and is a pretty good athlete for a big guy."

Churchill on Green: "He has all the tools to play short long term, hit .280/.350 and with some pop. But at USC he looked out of plate a bit at short; his actions were a bit choppy and inconsistent and his throws weren't always from the same slot. I haven't seen him since spring training, but scouts say he looks "better," defensively but that his bat is going to carry his value for now."

Law on the A's system: "Their top two hitting prospects had disappointing seasons, although Chris Carter recovered in the summer and earned a call-up. There's a fair amount of position player depth here but very little pitching, with command lefty Ian Krol the only arm I have among their top 10 prospects."

Next Up: Churchill and Randall on the Texas Rangers' system

a\'s-system-below-average

Comments
The following 11 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Adam P. Boyd on 02-06-2011 00:23:04
Good stuff, Rick.

I feel like this system is better than LA's, despite KLaw ranking the Angels as a top 10 system..

2. By: Rick Randall on 02-06-2011 00:52:27
I would agree with that as for present value -- they certainly have a bit more polish as L.A.'s system is much younger, particularly their top talent.

Most of Oakland's top guys are in the upper minors.

Neither systems are very good, IMO.

3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-06-2011 01:01:05
I think between the two you have decide whether you like depth or upside, because LAA certainly has more upside.

I didn't talk to a scout that liked Segura at shortstop very much, and thought his bat was still two years away, so I would not have graded him as high, though I have never seen him.

But I'd trade Choice, Carter, Taylor and Green for Trout alone.

4. By: Adam P. Boyd on 02-06-2011 02:47:26
I would make that trade too.

But if your #4 is a reliever, your #3 is a 23 year old catcher who has only caught more than 87 games in a season once, and then Segura...

I don't know, I am just not too high on the Angels system. Trout obviously is worth quite a bit though.

I don't like Oakland's much either, so I guess I just agree with you guys.

Not that I am complaining about two of our division rivals having not-so-hot farm systems at the moment.

5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-06-2011 03:24:46
Can't forget that Conger has a good chance to hit, though he's not good from the right side, regardless of whether he catches full time or not, and that Walden, even though he's a relief pitcher, is big-league ready right now, which carries value in and of itself.

I don't think LAA has a top 10 system, but I do think it's right there with Oakland's, probably a bit better, since Oakland's graduated Cahill, Anderson and Gonzalez the past few seasons.

For me, the key is Segura -- if he's really as good as Law has seen, which is a legit middle infielder with an above-average bat, it changes everything.

6. By: Adam P. Boyd on 02-06-2011 03:36:58
They definitely have value, I just don't like either of those guys as much as Law does.

Yeah, I guess Segura is the key. I never would have guessed he would be so high in Law's rankings - let alone almost 20 spots higher than Franklin. Franklin being almost a year younger, putting up similar offensive numbers, position...

...but obviously Segura has high upside. Not often you see someone attempting to shift a player from 2B->SS. I'd be surprised if he sticks though.

7. By: Rick Randall on 02-06-2011 09:16:43
I agree that LAA has more upside also, just that they are so young and so far away right now.

And, yes; Trout is going to be amazing. I'd bet my life on it.

8. By: junglist215 on 02-06-2011 11:03:32
I hate to raise this point because it's hindsight hand wringing. However, it has been bugging the hell out of me lately. If the M's had not signed Josh Fields, they could have potentially drafted Mike Trout with the compensation pick. Imagine how this system would look with 3 out of the top 15 prospects.

9. By: Rick Randall on 02-06-2011 11:12:48
No doubt that would be awesome, junglist, and the system would then be stacked with prime prospects at the most prime positions: CF, SS, 2B, SP...but you can literally play the "what if" game for every draft and beat yourself up over it.

Best to just play the hand we were dealt, regardless of how poorly the previous FO regime screwed things up.

10. By: junglist215 on 02-06-2011 11:22:39
Oh definitely. Playing the what if game with this team would be maddening. However, there's something to be learned from that, and that is drafting a relief pitcher in the 1st round is just dumb. Thanks Bavasi!

11. By: maqman on 02-06-2011 13:28:13
We owe him so much.

Billy B will most likely trade half or more of their farm for whatever is behind curtain number 3.

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