Prospect Insider - AFL Report 2008

AFL Report 2008

By Jason A. Churchill

By 10-30-2008

PEORIA, Ariz. - An ordinary .268 batting average, one measly home run, seven runs batted in and a single stolen base - uninspiring numbers to write home about. So why am I doing just that?

Two reasons:

Statistical results mean so very little in a circuit such as the Arizona Fall League, due to many factors, including competition variables, the environment, and the relatively and inherently small sample size.

And the bio of the hitter that produced those respectable, yet unspectacular numbers will reflect a birthdate that fails to qualify to enjoy an alcoholic beverage in Canada until the third week of Spring Training 2009.

Carlos Triunfel is the youngest player in the AFL at 18, and has already impressed dozens of scouts who have gathered to check out some of the game's best young talents.

The question being asked by most fans in Seattle regarding Triunfel is "how good is he really going to be?" Nobody really knows the answer to that for sure, but all signs point to the Dominican infielder developing into a star-level big leaguer.

"I'd be surprised if he wasn't an everyday infielder, possibly a third baseman if he grows out of the middle spots," said an American League executive. "He's young, and you have to accept the growing pains that come with a teenager. But the physical skills are undeniable.

"I hear he's been called 'Baby Tejada,' and that's a pretty accurate description, at least as far as tools are concerned.

"He's shown a good line-drive swing and is significantly stronger right now than he was last spring. His development should be considered on track, but it's a much more aggressive path he's taking."

Triunfel's weaknesses include consistency, general maturity and the questions surrounding his ultimate defensive position. Where he plays in the field is quite important when it comes to the value he may bring to the table as a major league player.

Remaining at shortstop or second base, Triunfel projects to be an average to slightly above-average defender, based on current skills, learning curve and the developmental time he has remaining, though shortstop might be a bit of a stretch for him as he approaches the 200-pound mark and adds muscle mass.

His offensive upside backs up a middle infield role � great contact skills suggest he may hit .280 or better and his raw power has 25 home runs and 40 doubles written all over its manufacturer's label. With results like that playing second or short, Triunfel would make for a perennial All-Star.

If he has to move to third, or even to left field where he might be an even better fit than the hot corner for the Mariners, his offensive production becomes more along the lines of average for the position, putting more emphasis on his defense and baserunning abilities.

With less than two full seasons of professional baseball under his belt, however, it's far too early to do anything more than speculate on where his glove is more of an asset than a detriment.

The right-handed hitting Triunfel has tremendous arm strength and enough speed to play anywhere on the diamond, though it's difficult projecting him as a pitcher, catcher or first baseman. Anywhere else is feasible, so let's handicap that.

Position Chances
Shortstop - 15%
Second Base - 25%
Third Base - 30%
Corner Outfield - 25%
Center Field - 5%

If the M's have any aspirations of Triunfel in center field, the time to make that move is right now in order to give him the two or three years it typically takes players to make such a transition. He can adapt quicker to a corner spot, and that sort of change need not be made until the club is convinced he cannot give them regular time at a more valuable position.

Triunfel is likely to play shortstop and second base at Double-A West Tennessee in 2009, as he did last season in the California League, and possibly a little bit of third base. It's my estimation that he'll land on second base more prominently once he reaches Tacoma, where he should begin the 2010 campaign.

An Angels scout asked me an interesting question Tuesday at the complex: "Compare Triunfel today to Jose Lopez as he prepared for his age 19 season; what's the difference?" The answer is not much, and that is going to scare a lot of M's fans into believing Triunfel is just another kid with potential that ultimately disappoints.

Triunfel has shown some immaturity during his time in the organization, and there are always conditioning concerns when young players are advanced physically at such a young age. It's a test of both the organization's player development department and the players' own mettle.

It's difficult to say how Triunfel will handle his ascent through the minors and if the enjoyment and satisfaction of simply being in pro ball will be enough for him.

It's been enough for Lopez, whose 2003 projections suggested all-star, and while he technically made the All-Star team in 2006, he's certainly anything but a star in baseball. His work ethic is lacking and has turned the former shortstop into a third baseman playing a very mediocre second base.

Lopez could have been a star if he wanted to be. The skills were there. The bat speed was there. The raw ability was there. But he's apparently content with just being a below-average glove with an average-at-best bat.

Triunfel's natural baseball instruments may grade a little higher than did Lopez's at the same age, despite performance advantages in Lopez's favor. Triunfel holds an edge in plate coverage, bat speed, throwing arm and a slight edge in foot speed. Lopez was further advanced instinctually on defense and on the bases, and handled plays around the bag at second with more polish.

While probability is comparable, there isn't much comparison when it comes to upside. Triunfel is the more gifted bat, and his ceiling defensive abilities make Triunfel the better prospect. His status among the rest of the top prospects in baseball is growing with every laser that jumps off his bat, too.

"He's top 15, maybe even top 10," said ESPN.com Scouts Inc's Keith Law.

"He's the second or third best talent here," said a Yankees front office executive. "I can't think of six or eight better prospects in baseball of the top of my head."

An NL East Scouting Director called Triunfel "the most intriguing upside of any prospect in the game," while a rival scout opined that "if he's a shortstop, he's my No. 2 behind (Baltimore's Matt) Wieters. At second he's still top 10-15. But it will all come down to how much work he's willing to put in during his career."

So, if you are wondering how good I think Carlos Triunfel is going to be, I'll answer that question with a question of my own.

How good does Triunfel want to be?

afl-report-2008

Comments
The following 15 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: starbuckdog on 11-06-2008 12:31:08
I am off to PHX tomorrow for a week to check out some AFL action. Looking forward to seeing the M's prospects (Triunfel, Halman, etc) and some of the other big names (Wieters, Hanson, Hughes, Jackson). Great job on the re-design bro... it's great to see you back to doing what you are obviously passionate about!

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-06-2008 12:33:12
Thanks, starbuckdog! BTW, if you drive by "The Smoothie King" down there, get one... oh man.

3. By: starbuckdog on 11-06-2008 12:42:20
Smoothie King... LOL! I'll see if I can squeeze that one in between my frequent In-N-Out Burger stops!

4. By: Blowgun7 on 11-06-2008 14:38:44
Jason, any word on Halman? I saw some highlights where he just mashed fastballs. Has a very nice and quick swing, but the last couple weeks over in AZ, he's been striking out like crazy

5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-06-2008 15:55:23
He's been striking outlike mad for three pro seasons... There are three ways to describe Halman, and they all start with "He has never met..."

1. He has never met a fastball he couldn't hit 400 feet
2. He has never met a fly ball he couldn't track down
3. He has never met a breaking ball he didn't swing at.

6. By: 01v-dubs on 11-06-2008 19:30:45
PI being back up just made my day! I went to the AFL earlier this year and saw two games. In the second one I sat right by Phil Hughes (who was in the stands for some reason). I saw Triunfel miss a HR right on his hands by a couple of inches down the left field line. I saw him at SS and 2B, and he looks very good at second, but I don't see why he can't stay at short. It looked like he has good instints over there, and I'd say he's already pushing 200ibs. Halman put on a show in BP. I saw him hit a double, a couple of singles, and steal a base (he can fly). To me it seems like he's being patient just for the sake of being patient, not to work the count and identify pitches. I saw him take pitches that were right down the middle, and swing at breaking pitches way out of the zone.

7. By: NavyChief2004 on 11-06-2008 19:47:42
So, Halman is basically our version of Pedro Cerrano? Buy the guy some chickens!

8. By: Pumpkin on 11-06-2008 22:21:18
Oh man if Halman could only learn what a breaking ball is, he could be an absolutely amazing player. I was just wondering how much experience did he get playing over in the Netherlands? Like the equivalent of playing over here in HS does anyone know? By the way JAC I was wondering what was your impression of G. Hernandez in the AFL did you get to see him pitch at all? I know he used to be considered a good prospect a year or two back.

9. By: jonbbt on 11-06-2008 23:48:51
Halman is sounding like a fast version of Wlad. Meh. I really hope he can put it together though, the tools! The tools!

10. By: Plaws on 11-07-2008 04:22:43
I was wondering if you think there's a possibility that Tazawa's status might create a Market for Kenji. If the M's aren't going to go after him then they might be able to use Tazawa to get a better return from a team that wants him bad enough. I don't know whether ownership would approve moving him and it'd probably have to involve someone who has a more positive impact appeal (Putz, Beltre, Ichiro:since you mentioned him...) This would allow the team to carry only 2 catchers with Johnson down the road in Tacoma and open a roster spot for that extra pitcher for the opening weeks. Do you think the timing could be right for Johnson (being a one of 3 catchers on the club a few weeks into the season) and do you think that Tazawa may be creating a market for Kenji?

11. By: robsols on 11-07-2008 09:06:16
About the experience Halman got here in the Netherlands: He was the MVP in his second year at the top level in the Netherlands (and Europe) at the age of 16, when he went to Seattle. It probably says the most about the level here.

12. By: katal on 11-07-2008 09:07:16
No team is going to trade for Kenji & his contract just because it might make their newly-signed Japanese gambit slightly happier. We're stuck with him.

13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-07-2008 19:47:06
Tazawa's presence does nothing to help the M's on Johjima. Teams don't trade for players to make other players a little happier, unless that player costs very little or nothing, and the TEAM benefits from it significantly. If Johjima was likely to make Tazawa markedly better, I'm sure some team might see a few million bucks would be worth it, saving the M's SOME dough. But... no.

14. By: jonbbt on 11-08-2008 01:52:16
Jason, do you see Tazawa's mechanics as a potential area of concern (injury risk)? I'm not sure what to think of his motion.

15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-09-2008 00:12:12
My biggest concern would be whether it's repeatable. It appears to be for him, but who knows at this stage. As is, I think he's a No. 4 guy at best, but he's 22, has development remaining and already has two above-average pitches.

I'd also monitor whether he can consistently stay on top of his pitches, particularly his off speed stuff.

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