Prospect Insider - AFL Report

AFL Report

By Chris Crawford

By 11-11-2010

As tough as it is to write about baseball right now, we figured that now was as good a time as ever to have a distraction from the tragic events of last night.

The Arizona Fall League has become a hot-bed of prospects, and 2010 is no exception. With potential stars like Bryce Harper, Mike Montgomery and Dustin Ackley -- just to name a few -- the Phoenix area was the place to be to see high-end talent.

The seven players Seattle sent -- outside of Ackley -- wouldn't be in anyone's top five in the system, but the players sent all have the ability to contribute to the system -- and a couple players have a chance to contribute as soon as 2011.

Here's a breakdown from what I saw in my five days in Arizona.

Dustin Ackley

Here's the negatives about Dustin Ackley's AFL: He is facing mediocre pitching, he hasn't been able to get his on-base percentage over .600 and he doesn't have a great nickname yet. Seriously, you can't ask for much more than what the second-baseman has done over the past 16 games. He can hit.

But can he field? That's the question I was asked over and over again via twitter or email while in Arizona, and the answer is -- still a work in progress. Ackley's ability around the bag continues to impress, but the range and technique still leave a lot to be desired. Right now the 22 year old Ackley is a guy who's going to make the plays that are in front of him, but asking for much more than that is going to be difficult. With that being said, considering that Ackley was told about the change just under a year ago. There's reason to be optimistic about Ackley at second, but heed caution.

Josh Fields
Fields came in to pitch after Montgomery in the AFL Rising Stars game, and the results were inconsistent -- which might as well be the right-handers middle name. Fields retired the first three batters he faced on a strike out and two weak ground balls, and showed off his plus curveball while throwing a 92-94 mph fastball that had a bit of late life.

Unfortunately, the 25 year old from Georgia completely lost his command over the next three batters, giving up two walks and a blistering single after falling behind in the count, again. It's this maddening inconsistency that drives scouts crazy, and why Fields is likely nothing more than a middle reliever at this point. Unless his command improves drastically -- not to mention his inability to stay healthy -- the decision to offer Fields a contract is one of Jack Zdurienciks few mistakes.

Nate Tenbrink
Tennbrink didn't receive very much fanfare before the 2010 season, and even then the 23 year old was over shadowed by players like Ackley and Michael Pineda, or even the huge numbers of Kyle Seager and Johermyn Chavez. But the left-handed hitting Tenbrink had a heck of a year, and deserves some recognition.

In fact, the scouts I talked to couldn't stop talking about Tenbrink. "I love him" An AL East scout told me. "I love the swing path, I love the pitch recognition, and I love the makeup. We're not sure what position he's going to play, but the kid can swing the bat, and he can run, too."

If there's a weakness with Tenbrink -- outside the lack of a set position defensively -- it's that the former Kansas State Wildcat isn't likely to develop much more power, but 15-20 home runs is not out of the question. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tenbrink helping out the Seattle Mariners in a utility role as soon as next season.

Those were the three guys who stood out to me. Josh Lueke, Tom Wilhemsen, and Maikel Cleto didn't make appearances in any of the games I saw, and Matt Lawson had one forgettable at-bat. I was able to talk to a scout about Cleto, who told me that while the arm strength is impressive, the command and mechanics are not.

All in all, it was nice to see Seattle represented well, and the rave reviews for Tenbrink were a pleasant surprise. Just more good stuff to look forward to in the future.

afl-report

Comments
The following 30 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Missthosepilots on 11-11-2010 22:37:57
Thanks Chris! I have wondered if Tenbrink has Tui's number and role. Apart from the concussion, he had a solid season. His bat has been more consistent it seems than Lawson in the Fall league. Ackley? He had error today. He is human after all. Hard to be too critical right now!

Great to have some guys to watch.

2. By: Adam T on 11-11-2010 23:09:37
Good write-up, Chris - thanks.

And for the record, I have a feeling that Mr. Niehaus wouldn't mind a bit that we get back to Mariner baseball...

3. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-12-2010 00:01:14
Amen! No disrespect to Dave at all. I know he'd want us to have the best season possible. Nothing wrong with talking Mariner ball.

Thanks for the scouting report on Tenbrink. I'm excited for spring and to be able to see the kid play. We all knew it was gonna take some time for Dustin to adjust to a brand new position. Glad to see that he's making progress.

4. By: bunvt on 11-12-2010 00:42:33
Excited about the future of Ackley. Hey, on a middle infielder front, Jason/Chris any long shot the M's could get Gordon Beckham? And does Beckham still have a chance to reach his potential? or has he passed that window?

5. By: slamcactus on 11-12-2010 11:37:45
Past the window? He'll only be 24 next year and his second-half numbers were fantastic. He'll be just fine. Kenny Williams often surprises me, but I don't expect him to ship Beckham off while his value's low. That said, I didn't expect him to give Swisher away for nothing, either.

6. By: maqman on 11-12-2010 11:57:03
Thanks for the input Chris. I've started to pay more attention to Tenbrink lately, be interesting to see what he shows during spring training. He looks to be worth more of a shot than Tui, who hasn't shown much for too long. Josh Lueke and Tom Wilhelmsen are showing some nice potential too. Lueke should be ready to earn a spot in the pen next season. Wilhelmsen might take longer but seems to have value, if for nothing more than a trade chip. I don't know what his Rule 5 situation will be due to his years out of the game, but his arm should be fresh. While the prospect failure rate is high, I think we have some future major leaguers in the system.

7. By: shemberry on 11-12-2010 12:04:05
Jason or Chris,

Speaking of prospects, I am starting to get really excited about the 2011 draft. I have been reading a ton of stuff on George Springer and he could be an awesome fit for the M's going forward. I know there is a ton to happen, but if the draft was today(and Rendon was healthy), who would you take number 2? Cole, Purke, Springer? Someone else?

8. By: Chris Crawford on 11-12-2010 12:37:50
RE: Beckham -- no chance the White Sox give him up, minus a deal for MOTO hitter, still like him a lot.

RE: 2nd pick -- I go Cole, and I still wouldn't be stunned if the Pirates take him number one.

9. By: asymonds on 11-12-2010 13:17:17
"I was able to talk to a scout about Cleto, who told me that while the arm strength is impressive, the command and mechanics are not."

That's exactly what Cleto looked like at yesterday's game. I'd add that his arm action is noticeably different on his offspeed pitches. Seemed like a pretty easy tell for the hitters.

10. By: Rudolf on 11-12-2010 13:30:08
Felix, Pineda, Cole... yeah. Consider me in the Cole camp, perhaps even if Rendon is available.

Question about the A's international signing of Vicmal De La Cruz: if some considered him the best Dominican talent, (if not best, then toolsiest), why did the M's pay almost 3x the money for Phillips Castillo?

Thanks for any insight!

11. By: shemberry on 11-12-2010 13:42:12
Would you say that Cole projects as a top of the rotation starter?

12. By: Edman on 11-12-2010 14:36:30
Rudolf, define those "some". If they're genuine big league scouts, perhaps I'll care. If they're guys on the internet who are journalists, I don't give it much merit. Engle is one of the best in the business. If De La Cruz was a better prospect thsn Castillo, he wouldn't have urged Seattle to sign him.

13. By: Rudolf on 11-12-2010 14:51:08
They're journalists quoting "scouts", I think. For all I know they're idiots quoting idiots, and I'm the third idiot in line. Still, a little understanding would be appreciated. It sounds like La Cruz's age was under scrutiny; that could have had some affect on his price dropping. I do trust Engle, so I'm sure there are good reasons we paid so much for Castillo.

As for Cole, according to journalists quoting "scouts", he has Strasburg type stuff w/out the supernatural command, yet, (99 mph fastball, hammer time curve). If he puts it together this year I'd imagine it will be hard for the Pirates to pass on him at #1. He could be very special, and I don't think that's in the long-shot sense of the phrasing.

14. By: StandinPat on 11-12-2010 16:51:33
Re: Ackley's defense, Chris from what you've seen where would you put him right now? Considering what he brings to the table offensively, I'd have to think that if its slightly below average or better that he's a lock for the opening day roster.

15. By: acqb1424 on 11-12-2010 16:56:33
While Cole would be a nice addition to the stystem and eventually the pitching staff, I'm hoping that Rendon (of course proving he's healthy) will be there. An infield of Smoak, Ackley, Franklin and Rendon could be something to look forward to and they'd be fun to watch.

16. By: Rudolf on 11-12-2010 17:23:55
I'm with you on that infield, acqb1424. It kind of reminds me of the Texas infield of Blalock, Young, Soriano and Teixeira (hypothetically dreaming, of course). Come to think of it though, that Texas team was horrible and a lot of it was due to lousy pitching. If Cole is a dominant #1 how do you pass that up? Who would you rather have, David Price/Justin Verlander or Ryan Zimmerman? That's a really tough question.

17. By: Edman on 11-12-2010 17:51:41
Rudolf, I wasn't trying to be smarmy or rude. Often people take stuff off of a blog and call if a source. For instance, a pro Oakland journalist might overstate something someone said, because it fits their hopes and desires.

The M's aren't going to overpay for anyone they don't have to. Obviously, not everyone agrees that Vicmal De La Cruz is a player who should be paid as much as Castillo. I'm also not so sure that De La Cruz has more tools than Castillo. It's about the quality of the tools that he has.

There will always be opinions. Just like evaluating the player, you have to evaluate the messenger. We'll see who's right and wrong in a few years.

18. By: Edman on 11-12-2010 17:56:33
Need proof of the value of top quality pitching? Ask San Francisco fans while they're boasting about their World Series title. That's what Jack was shooting for with Lee and Felix. Unfortunately, The Seattle offense was looking up in order to see the mediocre line. A reasonable offense with top quality pitching will take you a long way.

19. By: baseballman on 11-12-2010 18:26:45
Good stuff Chris. This site is so great because of articles like this, it helps us keep up in more ways than just checking the boxscores.

This could be one of those years wheres its better to be picking 2 than 1. Obviously, you always want to have your choice of player, but I would love to see a rotation that boasts Felix, Cole and Pineda as its top 3. I would also love to see Paxton as the 4th, but its seems like that may not happen...wish Boras wouldnt have screwed this kid so bad because had he signed with us relatively quickly after the draft, he could have possibly been in an Ms uni by sept at the latest 2011. Oh well, maybe he signs and works very hard, who knows.

But back to the #2 pick, the Ms will come away with a stud/ace SP or MOTO 3B (obviously no guarantees). Im excited for this years draft. Im also curious as to what we do in FA, if we sign a type A we lose our 2nd rounder, which should net us a stud also. Im very optimistic about this franchise and the next few months will be fun and interesting.

20. By: ghill34 on 11-13-2010 14:58:34
Chase Utley was a below average defender and had below average range at the same point in his career as Ackley. With Utley's work ethic and makeup (similar to Ackley), he turned himself into a well above average defender with average range.

I love Springer, and have seen him a half dozen times. Potential 5 tool stud that can play CF or RF. The swing and miss scares me a little bit, but his body is so live and he does everything with such ease. Great makeup and clubhouse guy too.

21. By: slamcactus on 11-13-2010 15:26:18
"Who would you rather have, David Price/Justin Verlander or Ryan Zimmerman? That's a really tough question."

Zimmerman. Not even close.

22. By: Rudolf on 11-13-2010 15:38:06
It most certainly is close. Zimmerman and Verlander have been in the league five full seasons each, and Zimmerman is worth 1 WAR more than Verlander.

How is that not even close?

And furthermore, pitching wins championships. I'd rather have an ace in the playoffs than a strong defensive 3B with decent pop.

As for Price, the kid is just warming up. He was worth 4.3 WAR in his first full season and has tremendous stuff.

23. By: rocketdawg31 on 11-13-2010 18:14:05

If I can weigh in on the Price/Zimmerman debate..

I take Price. Lefties with that stuff are an automatic take for me, provide more value as starters. As REALLY GOOD as what I think Zimmerman is, I can probably have an easier time finding a replacement for his skillset than I can Price's.

Just like if I have a choice between a Gerrit Cole and an Anthony Rendon, I take Gerrit Cole. That would constitute an agonizing choice, being as how as an org we needs premium bats.

But my reasoning is this- The Mariners have a chance, as an org, to develop a pitching staff that could take us a LOOOONG way ultimately. I saw what the Giants did, riding the strength of Lincecum-Bumgarner-Sanchez-Cain. Offensively, that was no juggernaut. It could be replicated.

With Pineda and Beavan, a signing of a Paxton, and a drafting of a Cole? You could give yourself a window to do special things for a decade. Add a Robles if he proves better at starting,plus a bunch of high-octane arms in the bullpen at once- and with enough max-outs on potential, we'd be an org that can eventually just pitch lights-out with what would probably be JUST ENOUGH bats (Smoak, Ackley, Saunders,Moore,you-know-the-names et al) to get by.

A chance to develop a staff like that doesn't actually come along very often, and it could be a perfect storm we're seeing start to gather that way.

(By the way, I think Paxton signs somewhere in January, and they deal with his career accordingly. He probably has just lost a half-year on a major-league staff in the end. And I don't think there'll be a choice between the two of Cole or Rendon. One of the two is gonna be gone as the first pick in the draft. Cole is the only pick that'd influence me NOT to pick Rendon.)

I guess I go with the notion that: If you can pitch, you've always got a shot. I honestly think that if our pitching hadn't performed like it did, we would've lost 125 games in 2010.

24. By: slamcactus on 11-13-2010 21:59:53
" Zimmerman and Verlander have been in the league five full seasons each, and Zimmerman is worth 1 WAR more than Verlander.

How is that not even close?"

Pitchers peak earlier than hitters, Zimmerman's played fewer full seasons than Verlander has (4.5 to 5), and Gold Glove third basemen age much, much better than starting pitchers who throw in the mid-90s. Zimmerman was 25 years old last season, and there's good reason to believe he still hasn't hit his ceiling. Verlander was 27. Even if Verlander throws a number of more healthy seasons (for which the odds aren't great), the odds that he hasn't hit his peak are at about 0.1%.

"And furthermore, pitching wins championships. I'd rather have an ace in the playoffs than a strong defensive 3B with decent pop."

You're right. Pitching wins championships. Only pitching. Offense? Irrelevent. Defense? What the hell is that? Joe Carter's WS-winning home run? Never happened.

Championships are won by outscoring other quality teams over the course of a 7-game series. That involves run production (offense) and run prevention (pitching + defense, with an arguable distribution that favors pitching by some margin). Zimmerman contributes in two of those areas.

Justin Verlander is a very good pitcher. Ryan Zimmerman is one of the 4-5 best position players in the game.

"As for Price, the kid is just warming up. He was worth 4.3 WAR in his first full season and has tremendous stuff."

It's funny, 4.3 WAR exactly equals the lowest WAR Zimmerman's ever put up over a full season. He did it when he was 21 years old.

Pitchers don't have the same age curve as hitters. As a group, they tend to peak both in velocity and overall effectiveness about 2-3 years into their careers. Individuals can buck this trend, but pitchers don't progress on a bell curve.

25. By: shemberry on 11-13-2010 23:06:48
To me, all things being equal you take the position player due to the high rate of injuries to pitchers.

26. By: Rudolf on 11-14-2010 02:23:22
Don't get me wrong, Slamcactus. I like Zimmerman alot.

But I absolutely disagree with your statement that pitchers peak earlier than hitters. I see it quite the opposite. Pitching takes longer to perfect. Many pitchers don't get it down until their late twenties. Hitters start to peak at 24-25 all the time, or earlier.

For all you know, Verlander is only getting better from here on out, (after all, he has a .1% chance; whatever orifice that leaked out of). For all you know Verlander could rip off three straight Cy Young seasons. He's 27! Gimme a break.

Belittling my pitching wins championships statement doesn't do much for you, Slam. Because you're right. Give me five awesome starters and a little league offense and we'll win the World Series. Better yet, we won't even bother taking ABs. We will literally pitch our way to the title and win every game 0 to -1.

Love the random Joe Carter reference. He was one of my all time favorite players. I even thought about using him to buttress my position, but it wouldn't have made much sense.

Price is just scratching the surface. He could become an annual 7-8 WAR pitcher. Verlander already pulled off an 8 WAR season in 2009, and he followed it up with a 2.98 FIP 6.3 WAR season in 2010. The guy is nails. He's one of the ten best pitchers in baseball.

No one is saying Zimmerman isn't putting up the same value. To suggest he's substantially more valuable is an untenable argument.

And if Verlander faces him in the World Series, I'm putting my money on the pitcher everytime.

27. By: slamcactus on 11-14-2010 13:11:34
"But I absolutely disagree with your statement that pitchers peak earlier than hitters. I see it quite the opposite. Pitching takes longer to perfect. Many pitchers don't get it down until their late twenties. Hitters start to peak at 24-25 all the time, or earlier."

You can disagree, but your attempt at applied intuition is belied by actual research on the subject, which says you're wrong.

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/no_matter_how_i_slice_or_dice_it_pitchers_get_worse_every_year/

Velocity peaks in the early 20s. Some guys can offset the decline in velocity with improved pitchability, but many can't. Pitchers as a group decline after their first couple of years in the bigs.

http://www.tangotiger.net/aging.html

Hitters, on the other hand, peak on average around age 28 and typically follow a bell curve. The best block of years, statistically, fall between age 27-30. Zimmerman's still a year removed from that.

"Price is just scratching the surface. He could become an annual 7-8 WAR pitcher."

And Zimmerman could become an annual 14-WAR third baseman! What's that? There's never been an annual 14-WAR player, and projecting a guy to double his career-best total is absolutely nuts? Oh. Ok.

That's absolutely absurd. We don't have an example of an "annual 7-8 WAR pitcher" in today's game. Roy Halladay isn't an annual 7-8 WAR pitcher. Felix Hernandez isn't. Cliff Lee isn't. Roger Clemens had a couple of 3-year stretches where he pitched at that level, but never put up that kind of performance for more than 3 consecutive years. The last pitcher we saw who did that for a prolonged stretch was Randy Johnson, the all-time MLB leader in strikeouts per inning. David Price is no Randy Johnson.

"No one is saying Zimmerman isn't putting up the same value. To suggest he's substantially more valuable is an untenable argument."

It really isn't. Position players are more predictable year to year, they're less injury prone, and they peak later than pitchers. There's a reason position players routinely get 6+ years while that kind of contract length is only reserved for the 3-5 best arms in the game (and most of those deals turn out badly in years 3-6). Pitchers aren't good franchise cornerstones.

"And if Verlander faces him in the World Series, I'm putting my money on the pitcher everytime."

Yes, in any given at-bat, a pitcher is more likely to achieve a positive result than a hitter not named Barry Bonds. When selecting somebody for one game, you go with the healthy, dominant pitcher. When selecting somebody to build a franchise around for the next several years, you go with the 25-year-old gold-glove at a position high on the defensive spectrum who has 30-hr power and a batting eye that's steadily improving and edging towards elite status over a 28-year-old fireballer. Every time. It's not close. At all. You certainly go with him over the guy who's not even through the injury nexus yet whose best season is roughly equal to the position player's worst full campaign.

28. By: Rudolf on 11-14-2010 16:00:00
Should I not have assumed we were talking about Gerritt Cole and Anthony Rendon comparisons here? Did you think I was arguing about building a team around the literal players Verlander and Zimmerman at their current ages? If you did, then you didn't read my original post correctly, the one to which you responded so resoundingly.

Read post #16 again. This was all an allusion to next year's draft with loose comparisons of Cole to Verlander, and Rendon to Zimmerman. It was a question of do you choose a pitcher over a 3B if the ace has realistic #1 pitcher potential.

How many of today's best and brightest hitters peaked in their 27-29 years? Plenty. How many didn't? Plenty.

The following young stars put up their best or second best seasons at the following ages: Longoria: 23. Pujols: 23. Zimmerman: 24. Cabrera: 22. Rolen: 23. Mauer: 23. Hanley Ramirez: 25. Braun: 25. Fielder: 23. Wright: 25. Teixeira: 25. I could go on. They aren't all getting better as they push toward or through the "peak years". Are you suggesting that all these guys are destined for a big bump in production as they move into the magical 27-29 age range, considering they haven't already entered those years without said bump?

Look at all the pitchers who got better and better as they got older: Oswalt, Halladay, Lee, Verlander, Weaver, Sabathia, Haren, Carpenter. We're talking about the best pitchers in baseball getting better in their late twenties. Who gives a rip about drop in velocity if the results are good?

Hitters may on average have longer, more productive careers, but let's not make this out to be more than it is.

My "forecast" on Price is not grounded on anything other than scouting reports and his early successes. I admit that. However, many consider him to be one of the best young pitcher in the game, the kind of guy who can get you to the World Series.

And in conclusion, if position players are so much more valuable, tell me why teams are going to be lining up to draft starting pitchers early in round one of the next draft. Wouldn't you think GMs would fear the injury nexus? Or the fact that the player won't be a franchise cornerstone? Or the lack of predictability? Or the opportunity to grab a position player with 14 WAR potential?

No. They won't fear those things. They will draft their pitcher because a healthy ace is the greatest asset in the game.

29. By: slamcactus on 11-14-2010 23:47:03
"Are you suggesting that all these guys are destined for a big bump in production as they move into the magical 27-29 age range, considering they haven't already entered those years without said bump?"

Every study that's looked at the issue says that hitters as a group peak in their late-20s and enjoy their best stretch of performances at age 27-30. Obviously not every hitter follows the exact same path, just like some pitchers improve as they get older. But we don't have the benefit of foresight. All we can do is compare guys to how their peers generally progress. Players add strength throughout their 20s and hit their physical peaks at around that age, yes. Skills are a less predictable animal, and I obviously am not predicting that kind of bump for any of the aforementioned players. There's more reason to think a guy like Zimmerman hasn't peaked yet than to think the same of Verlander, though. Much more reason.

And yes, I understand you were talking about archetypes. The lessons from these players apply equally to the draft choice, though. All else being equal, you take the position player.

30. By: Rudolf on 11-15-2010 10:14:00
I agree.

You are not currently logged in. If you'd like to comment on this report, please log in.
Haven't created a Prospect Insider account yet? Sign up!