Prospect Insider - AL West movement: Volume IV

AL West movement: Volume IV

By Chris Crawford

By 01-11-2011

Hopefully everyone is enjoying the beginning to the new year. There hasn't been a ton of movement to report, but there was a transaction that might have solidified a team as the favorite -- and no -- it wasn't Adam Kennedy.

[See WAR chart below]

Oakland A's
The last update stated that the Athletic off-season felt incomplete. Three weeks later, still incomplete. Yes, the offense will be better with the trades for Josh Willingham and David DeJesus and the signing of Hideki Matsui will improve the offense, and the pitching will again be formidable. I just expected a bigger splash by the Bay.

Los Angeles Angels
While Oakland failed to make a splash, the Angels have failed to even make a ripple. Unless you're related to Scott Downs, there's been very little to be excited about in Orange County. Three weeks ago it was too early to call the Angels off-season a failure. It's not too early anymore.

Texas Rangers
Well look who decided to wake up and join the party. They signed Adrian Beltre, they were a finalist for Matt Garza and they are heavily involved with Jim Thome. You can argue -- and you probably should argue -- that a six year commitment to Beltre might have been too much, but there's no denying he makes the 2011 product better. If tehy are able to land Thome, the DH position is upgraded as well, though how much better than the production Vladimir Guerrero provided is debatable. There is a firm favorite for the 2011 division, and it comes in the form of the Texas Rangers.

Seattle Mariners
It wasn't a big move, but adding Kennedy was a nice coup for the 2011 club. Kennedy is still an above-average fielder, isn't completely opposed to taking a walk and can still run. He also isn't Josh Wilson, which is nice. He's probably only a win player -- depending on playing time -- but on a minor-league deal, this is the type of move that can make you smirk.

Your smirk might turn into a frown, though, if you expect any other major additions. There are still some decent back-end starters left on the market -- including comment favorite Kevin Millwood -- but Millwood and the like just aren't affordable options right now. Barring a trade to clear up cash, the major additions for the 2011 Mariners are likely over, at least for now.

AL West Player Movement
Team	WAR In	WAR Out	Total
Oakland Athletics	6.5	3.9	2.6
Texas Rangers	9.5	6.3	3.2
Los Angeles Angels	2.8	1.9	0.9
Seattle Mariners	7.6	-0.5	8.1

al-west-movement:-volume-iv

Comments
The following 16 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: StandinPat on 01-11-2011 22:49:48
Sorry, I'm not getting the Rangers WAR movement. I just don't see them as being any better, let alone 3+ wins better. Beltre's not likely to be a & win player going forward, and while Beltre>Young at 3B, Guerrero>Young at DH. They still haven't replaced Lee's 3.1 WAR, and expecting Brandon Webb to give anything is uneasy as best.

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-11-2011 22:58:13
Pat,

The table is not meant to suggest that the team is going to be three wins better or worse... it's just a guide to show what the club has lost this offseason versus what they have added.

We aren't predicting or projecting here... it's just a chart to show player movement, as the title suggests. Just remember that when commenting.

3. By: StandinPat on 01-11-2011 23:11:04
I guess that was my pseudo question. I do vaguely remember last years version having some adjustments for crazy outliers, ie Beltre's 7.1 WAR, but then again that may have been for partial or injury shortened seasons.

4. By: nater on 01-12-2011 12:11:08
I know this is obvious and has probably been pointed out in earlier posts, but I do have to chuckle, or smirk, at the M's addition by subtraction -- they are only adding 7.6 WAR, but are 8.1 WAR better. I understand it's just on paper, but it's pretty funny to think you can make your team better by losing players.

5. By: maqman on 01-12-2011 13:23:57
Z has done a lot with not very much to work with. Imagine what he can do with $20MM of payroll space and another year of development on the farm.

6. By: Chris Crawford on 01-12-2011 13:59:58
As soon as I have the PECOTA projections available to me, I'll put those in. It still gives you a pretty good idea, though.

7. By: studentofthegame on 01-12-2011 16:02:48
At this point I don't really care what the team looks like! I am just seriously ready for it to be baseball time again. A month to go until we get to the doorstep of the new season.

In the mean time I hope the Hawks can squeak through Chicago. I am really hoping for another great game from them to help nurse along the time until we get to the best sport ever invented (not beer pong).

8. By: studentofthegame on 01-12-2011 16:12:01
At this point I don't really care what the team looks like! I am just seriously ready for it to be baseball time again. A month to go until we get to the doorstep of the new season.

In the mean time I hope the Hawks can squeak through Chicago. I am really hoping for another great game from them to help nurse along the time until we get to the best sport ever invented (not beer pong).

9. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 01-12-2011 23:29:17
In all fairness the increased production the Angels should see by having Morales, Haren, Callaspo and Bourjos for the entire season should be taken into consideration by anyone trying to calculate end of season standings. The Rangers are the class of the AL West but the Angels and to some extent the A's are not that far behind. I for one view the Rangers rotation as easily the worst in the West and I equate anyone counting on Webb for anything, as very similar to any Mariner oriented forecaster counting on a real contribution from Erik Bedard.

By May the Rangers very well could have a rotation in shambles and the pressure that puts on a bullpen could cause a collapse there as well. The offense and defense of the Rangers is nice but if I had to wager money on any one team running away with the AL West it would be the Angels and not the Rangers.

10. By: Mackie on 01-13-2011 18:07:14
If I was going to wager money on a team to surprise in the West this season, it would be the A's. But while I think Oakland will be good, I have to agree the Rangers are still the class of the division... Texas and Anaheim both seem to have good hitting and adequate pitching, whereas the A's are probably lacking in the hitting department... but watch out for Oakland!

How would you rank the rotations in the AL West?

I probably don't know much, but I rank the AL West rotations like this:

1. OAKLAND - While the A's rotation is easy to overlook, it is quite solid. I would suggest that Trevor Cahill could be Dan Haren's equal. Keep Brett Anderson healthy and he can be outstanding. While Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Braden might go 3 and 4 for the A's, they might be more like 2 and 3 for some teams (like the M's). And they could do a lot worse than having to use Josh Outman or a healthy Rich Harden for their #5 guy. I put the A's at #1 because when I look at their numbers, I think they are the strongest, 1 through 4.

2. ANGELS - Haren, Weaver and Santana make for a very formidable front three, and Pineiro did nicely in 23 starts for the Angels last season. If Trevor Bell can develop a bit more, I wonder if Scott Kazmir has a place in the Angels' rotation? I put LA at #2 because I don't see them being as strong, or potentially as strong, at 4-5.

3. RANGERS - Between Lewis, Hunter and Wilson it would seem that the front three for the Rangers, while not outstanding, is quite adequate. After that, it seems like there are too many question marks. If Brandon Webb is healthy and pitches like he used to, these guys might be #2, but they need more help at the back of the rotation.

4. MARINERS - Sorry, but even with Cy Young on the staff this looks pretty scary. Vargas might be as good as Braden or Gonzalez, or last year might have been a fluke. Doug Fister might continue to improve, or last year might have been his high point... that only gets us through the first three guys in the rotation. After that, it looks like an utter crap shoot.

11. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 01-13-2011 20:20:34
Tommy Hunter sucks. Wilson and Lewis have no extended track record of success and the last time Webb was anything was years ago now. Add that to Feldman or Holland in the fifth spot and you are looking at a rotation that will very likely have overworked the bullpen by the end of May.

Felix, Vargas, Fister, Bedard, Pineda, French and Pauley might not be sexy but I'd take them over the Rangers group any day.

And the Angels are stupid. Another elite player signs with another AL contender. Soriano could have went a long way to salvaging their offseason but it seems to me they just don't care.

12. By: Edman on 01-13-2011 20:28:36
Rafael Soriano gets a 3 year $35 million deal? Baseball has gone insane. Only the Yankees. But, at least they'll surrender their first round pick to who? Yes, their strongest division rival, Tampa Bay.

You go, Cashman.

13. By: studentofthegame on 01-13-2011 23:12:35
Is Soriano the heir apperent to the closer role for the NYY? Or is he just a backup plan in case Mo falls apart this season?

That was a lot of coin to stack up on a setup man huh!

Worse yet I saw a tweet (if Pro Rumors is reliable)saying that the Yanks still had another $20 million left in the budget after this signing.

Somewhere Jack Z is sipping a scotch and wondering what it would be like to play in the big leagues someday.

14. By: dewey on 01-14-2011 09:08:36
#11 ? The Ranger pitchers have no proven track record they just went to the W.S.didnt they? That group of Mariner pitchers you named below what exactly is there track record? Im not critizing just wondering if im missing something?

15. By: Mackie on 01-14-2011 12:38:18
A 3.73 ERA, 1.24 and .255 BAA hardly suck. Based on last year's stats, Tommy Hunter would probably be at least the Mariners' #3 starting pitcher. Maybe this is just a guess, but I am guessing he has more upside than Doug Fister, who would seem to be Seattle's #3? Hunter is three years younger than Fister, and from all appearances, he is better. He is better than French. Probably better than Pauley. I'd have him in Seattle's 2011 rotation in a heartbeat.

Like the other Rangers' pitchers, Hunter isn't great, but he is adequate. Where I think Texas' rotation is not so great is in the 4-5 spots.

Our rotation looks as great as you can get in the #1 slot, then we have Vargas (whose stats are very similar to Tommy Hunter's) possibly slotted as #2. Again, after that, it's a real crap shoot... where I think our rotation is not so great is in the 3-5 spots.

I'm not counting Bedard in Seattle's mix, because I will believe he can contribute to the the M's when I see it happen. Let's hope he can help out this year, if he can it will be a real bonus.

16. By: Mackie on 01-14-2011 12:41:32
Same thing with Pineda... if he comes to the majors and can pitch well as a rookie, that will also be a real bonus. I will change my mind about our rotation in a few months once I see how Bedard and Pineda are doing, if they are contributing. Lots of things can change.

Looking at what we can count on, barring injury, it's Felix, Vargas, Fister, French and Pauley. Not too inspiring, in my estimate...

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