Prospect Insider - AL West Movement: Volume V

AL West Movement: Volume V

By Chris Crawford

By 01-18-2011

To check out Rick Randall's countdown to spring training piece click here

We are now well over halfway through January, and we are starting to see the "best of the rest" free-agents off the market now as well. That's not to say that the market is now barren, but outside of maybe a Carl Pavano, there's nothing out there that will make or break the division.

[See WAR chart below]

Note The last couple of pieces did not include the teams unsigned free-agents in the lost WAR. At this point, we can now consider those players less likely to come back, so that should explain the difference in a few teams numbers

Oakland Athletics
With the recent additions of Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes, the Oakland A's may have the best pitching staff from 1-12 of anyone, including Boston. Fuentes is one of the best LH relievers in the game, and Balfour misses bats and will enjoy the friendly confines of Oakland much more than Tampa Bay. I personally wouldn't have guaranteed Balfour a second year, but he makes the team better in 2011. Oakland and Texas could have an interesting battle for the division crown -- if the A's can score some runs.

Los Angeles Angels
The Angels have been given a hard time about this off-season, but don't forget that they made one of the biggest moves for 2011 last July, when they traded for Dan Haren. The right-hander has been worth 17 wins from 2008-2010, and they didn't give up near what they should have to acquire the ace. It still has been a frustrating winter for Angel fans, but don't forget that a full year of Dan Haren is in the cards for Los Angeles, either.

AL West Player Movement
Team	WAR In	WAR Out	Total
Oakland Athletics	8.1	4.5	3.6
Texas Rangers	9.5	9.3	0.2
Los Angeles Angels	2.8	1.9	0.9
Seattle Mariners	7.6	-0.1	7.7

Texas Rangers
It may not seem like a huge loss, but the Rangers off-season was significantly weakened when Jim Thome turned down more money to stay in Minnesota. Thome would have thrived in Arlington -- and even though he's on the wrong side of 40 -- he's consistently put up wOBA in the .370 range for the last four seasons. There is no reason to expect him to put up another .437 wOBA, but even a 30 point drop would put him among the best DH's in baseball. The questions in the middle of the order -- and the lack of an ace in the starting rotation -- keep Texas from being an elite team in the American League. It would behoove them to make another move, maybe two.

Seattle Mariners
All quiet on the northwestern front. For those who are frustrated by the lack of movement, look on the bright side -- no movement is better than bad movement. Yes, there are a few guys left who could improve this team this year. But for the most part, there is a reason all of these guys are left on the market; They want too much money and long-term deals. There is not one free-agent left -- and that includes Pavano -- that the Mariners should be giving more than a year commitment to. As the players left get more realistic/desperate, then maybe you'll see Seattle snatch up a guy. I wouldn't bet on it anytime soon.

al-west-movement:-volume-v

Comments
The following 9 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: maqman on 01-18-2011 13:12:14
Not much there that I disagree with Chris. Saw some early Cairo projections for the 2011 season that have the M's in the AL West basement again but with a 72-90 record and scoring 122 more runs than last season, while only giving up 5 more runs. Projections this early are not very reliable but I can see that as a reasonable outlook.

2. By: eastcoastmariner on 01-18-2011 13:36:28
Jason/Chris/Rick,

I noticed in a previous post some information you were listing about spring training. I've never been to Peoria, or a spring training facility/game for that matter, and I was hoping to make the trip to Peoria this year (I live in Pennsylvania).

However, I wouldn't be in Peoria until the last week in March (27th-3rd), and I noticed the M's final game in Peoria is on the 28th. With that in mind, is it still a good idea for me to consider making the trip? Will the minor leaguers still be in Peoria during the time I would be there?

Thanks guys. Appreciate your feedback as always!

3. By: rjfrik on 01-18-2011 13:56:49
If Oakland can find some offense they are going to be really really tough to beat this year. Their Starting pitching is already one of the best staffs in the American league and as Chris says they by far have the best bullpen. Beane is really pushing this small ball game plan of pitching and defense and 3 runs a game and it looks like it might just work.

Check out his blurb from Onely's blog.

1. The Brian Fuentes deal with Oakland is in place, which means the Athletics have these kind of matchup options behind Bailey:

- Left-hander Brian Fuentes vs. lefties: A .128 batting average, with 0 homers in 47 at-bats.
- Left-hander Craig Breslow vs. lefties: A .181 batting average, with three homers in 94 at-bats.
- Right-hander Grant Balfour vs. righties: A .174 batting average, with two homers in 109 at-bats.
- Right-hander Joey Devine vs. righties in 2008, before he had his elbow surgery: .120, one homer in 92 at-bats.
- Right-hander Brad Ziegler vs. righties: .213 with one homer in 164 at-bats.
- Right-hander Mike Wuertz vs. righties: .227 with three homers in 97 at-bats.

Umm. Come the late innings they are going to slam the door on you. Damn that is formidable. That's a .182 batting average with 10 homers in 603 AB's. That is ridiculous.

4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-18-2011 14:18:30
eastcoastmariner,

Yes, the minor leaguers stay in town another week or so. But they are often playing their own spring games so they won't always be at PSC. They could be at Surprise or elsewhere.

5. By: mazono on 01-18-2011 14:29:26
Prospect Insider staff, would you consider Armando Galarraga since he was DFA today?

6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-18-2011 15:22:38
Sure. But I wouldn't pay him $2 million or more, which is what he got in arby before being D'dFA.

7. By: Madison Mariner on 01-18-2011 19:24:40
Actually, I believe Tigers' GM Dave Dombrowski avoided going to arbitration with Galarraga on the last day teams could still negotiate with players and avoid arbitration. Then, less than 12 hours after signing him, he DFA'ed him.

So, how does it work at this early date? If the Tigers can't find a trading partner to take on Galarraga--and it seems really likely that they won't find a trading partner, unless the Yankees continue to be really dumb--then Galarraga either clears waivers and is released, or clears waivers and is outrighted to AAA. I'm guessing he'll get released, but how much do the Tigers owe him at this early stage? Is it the 45 days termination pay? If so, he could be signed for the league minimum, right? Might be worth signing him for that.

And I do have to say that's a bad case of roster management by Dombrowski. He could've avoided this by just non-tendering Galarraga last December, although I imagine there might have been some backlash against that move since he had some perceived value after throwing his near no-hitter(or "should have been a no-hitter if not for blown call").

8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-18-2011 20:06:42
The Tigers will owe Gallaraga under $400k for 30 days termination pay if they release him.

But Madison, just because he CAN be signed for the league minimum doesn't mean he WILL sign for that amount. Seattle wouldn't be the only team interested, of course.

9. By: Madison Mariner on 01-18-2011 21:09:51
Thanks for the info, Jason--and yes, you're right, he could sign for more if released. Still, I don't see too many teams offering more than a base salary of $1 million for a one-year contract, especially since he'd be getting his termination pay from the Tigers as well.

And, in breaking news, Milton Bradley may be in his final days of being a Seattle Mariner as a result of this:

http://www.prorumors.com/2011/01/rumors/milton-brandley-arrested-by-lapd-for-making-criminal-threat

Yes, as the link says, Bradley was arrested for making a criminal threat by the LAPD.

Releasing is sounding more and more likely with this bit of news.

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