Prospect Insider - Aroldis Chapman, LHP

Aroldis Chapman, LHP

By Jason A. Churchill

By 10-29-2009

The Seattle Mariners are reportedly interested in left-hander Aroldis Chapman. That's news, because there's always been this contingency side of the payroll ledger the M's come up with on occasion and blow payroll for a player. It's only happened once or twice, but if the M's are serious about Chapman, they'll have to do it again.

It was nearly impossible for me to find enough talent evaluators to write up a full report on him and I have only seen video, so I'll pass on Keith Law's short writeup instead:

"Chapman has a huge fastball and has been clocked as high as 100 mph in international competition. But he will sit more consistently in the mid-90s in his best starts and in the low 90s in some of his lesser outings. The quality of his secondary stuff is a bigger question; he has thrown a slider that's sharp and approaches 90 mph, but pitches primarily off his fastball. He has the arm speed required to throw a plus slider, and has also shown a curve, a cutter and a changeup in past outings. There has been some question over whether his fastball-heavy approach is by choice or whether Cuban baseball officials were trying to limit his appeal to MLB clubs by preventing him from showing off his full repertoire; it is, of course, impossible to confirm that theory. Either way, the fastball/slider combination alone marks him as a potential front-line reliever. With his size and ability to hold his velocity deep into games, he offers the ceiling of a No. 1 starter."

The key word in Chapman's value to a club is prospect. He is a pitching prospect, not a proven commodity. I seriously doubt he's ready to jump into a big-league rotation and go through the lineup three times per night every five or six days 33-34 times per season, particularly in the American League, where most of the interested teams lie -- Seattle, Boston, New York, Detroit and Chicago joining St. Louis (maybe)Chicago and maybe the Giants in the NL... the interest of the A's and Blue Jays has been shot down.

There's also the question of age. Is he really 21? If not, how old is he? 24? 27? And if he's older, what's that do to his value?

The rumors are that it will take $40-60 million to land him. If that is the case, the Mariners should pass, and so should everyone else, which would obviously bring the price down.

He's athletic, has a pretty decent delivery that does not suggest he's destined for the bullpen, the velocity is easy, though it certainly hasn't been consistently in the upper 90s, and his breaking ball, a slider, is already major-league quality.

It's tough to say what he's really worth without seeing him more and knowing his age for sure, but assuming he's 21, or something within a year or so, he's a darned good pitching prospect that could help a big-league club sometime in 2010, at least out of the bullpen after July.

If the age and future role questions are two things clubs are comfortable with, spending $30-40 million on him isn't much of a problem for me. He's not a raw, needs-to-come-through-the-minors-and-learn-to-pitch type of arm, so there is less inherent risk in Chapman than, say, Tyler Matzek or Shelby Miller from this past June's draft.

But the rigors of pitching as much as MLB starters do is something he's never done, and in that manner, prospects like Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Scheppers, and other MiLB starting pitching prospects are a safer bet.

In the end, it's nice of the M's are serious about Chapman, but I find it hard to believe they'd ever make an offer that would compete with what the Red Sox and Yankees are likely to throw out there, and I'll applaud them for it, too.

The last of the AFL video coming tonight and tomorrow, then Saturday I'll post the M's minor league players of the year with a Saturday evening chat, and Sunday, maybe Monday, I'll post my offseason thoughts on what I think the M's can do, may do, and should not do.

aroldis-chapman,-lhp

Comments
The following 4 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: FWBrodie on 10-29-2009 16:39:18
So how much better is the M's farm with Chapman in it?

2. By: csiems on 10-29-2009 17:14:52
Probability-wise would you rate Chapman above Brandon Morrow? Even $30 million seems like a stretch to me considering it could cover two years of Felix.

3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-29-2009 22:59:21
Probability wise? Close call, but his upside is higher, and the probability of Morrow reach Chapman's ceiling aren't good at this point. Inconsistent mechanics/release point, unrefined breaking stuff -- even after 300 pro innings.

Plus, if his age is correct, Chapman is younger, too.

4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-29-2009 23:00:53
How much better, FW?

Somewhat, for sure. He's a valuable arm... unless Jack just thinks he has the makeup to be a good reliever, and then we're all wondering when Bill Bavasi went bald, shrunk 2 feet, gained 80 pounds and became really good at faking his own firing.

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