| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 01-15-2011 |
As the Seattle Mariners pass on Jeff Francis and watch Chris Capuano pick the New York Mets, don't fret, neither are worth a multi-year commitment and it shouldn't be difficult, barring injuries, for the club to cover 1000-plus innings before handing things over to the bullpen in 2011.
With the possible exception of a a few minor league contracts doled out and a slew of non-roster invitees, chances are the you can find your 2011 Seattle Mariners right here.
As of today, Ichiro and Chone Figgins will almost certainly lead off for the M's playing opposite corner in the field, with Jack Cust, Franklin Gutierrez, Milton Bradley and Justin Smoak providing the hope of run production. Brendan Ryan, Jack Wilson and perhaps Adam Kennedy will handle the second base and shortstop duties, while Michael Saunders shares time in left and veteran Miguel Olivo and second-year man Adam Moore handle the catching.
There are, however, a couple of cracks of light where changes could be made. The M's signed Josh Bard to a minor league deal and could conceivably include Moore in a trade. Bradley could get his walking papers at any moment, though it appears it will wait until at least spring training.
The pitching staff is unsettled and could be the most likely unit to change between now and Opening Day. Jeremy Bonderman, Kevin Millwood, Dave Bush and Doug Davis are among the potential free agents available, and the bullpen could receive a supplement or two in the coming weeks as clubs decide on final rosters.
Now, we all know by now that it's a rebuilding year at Safeco, but it's not going to be a season in which all of the young players get 600 plate appearances no matter how well or poorly they perform.
After having some conversations with a couple of front office executives -- never having brought up the M's in particular, here are a few other thoughts, including some off-topic meanderings ...
1. Saunders and Moore are the most likely young players to be moved in trade. They've had chances, and while they deserve a longer look, they will likely get said look in April and May, perhaps even June, and without marked improvement they'll fall out of favor in a hurry.
2. No doubt Jack Zduriencik will continue to consider any and all avenues to jump-start the rebuild job. No stone will go unturned, and there are very few untouchables -- zero in the farm system.
3. While it's unlikely that Dustin Ackley starts the season in the majors, it's not out of the question, and the trade for Ryan and the signing of Kennedy do nothing to change the situation. If Ackley is sent back to Tacoma as part of the final few cuts, it's all about service time, not because Ackley isn't ready.
Why do I say that with such confidence? Because Ackley isn't going to gain big-league ready defensive skills between April 1 and, say, June 20 in Triple-A if he doesn't have them on March 31. He's already good enough to avoid embarrassing himself and the club, and he's certainly one of the best nine hitters in the organization.
4. If Michael Pineda makes the big-league roster, it could be a mistake, depending on how he's handled. It was my feeling that he was pushed a little too hard at the end of last season before finally being shut down; he's had two bouts with elbow soreness in his pro career, logged just 47 1/3 frames in 2009 and was extended to 1139 1/3 last season -- that's a big jump.
If he's brought aboard and begins the season in the starting rotation but is slid to the bullpen after 20 or so starts, they should be able to keep him at a reasonable innings total for the year, and provided his pitch limit remains reasonable, too (yet aggressive at the same time, babying him to the core isn't a good idea, either), there won't be any issues with the process.
But because I feel he should have been shelved at least two starts earlier than he was, I'm concerned the organization has a plan for him that makes me queasy. No, I'm not the pitching injury and workload genius of all time, but a 92-inning increase doesn't wash out clean, especially for a kid with Pineda's history.
5. David Aardsma or Brandon League will probably be traded during the season, but the best bet is that one of the will remain through '11. With a shallow rotation and a fragile franchise, depleting the pen and leaving it to a group of kids is as unlikely as Ryan Anderson making a comeback.
And Dan Cortes is not ready to handle a role in the majors right now, anyway, though Josh Lueke may be. Cortes has problems with his control, Lueke throws strikes, generally speaking.
If the M's can get past the past, Lueke will get a shot, and that shot will start in spring training. But it goes without saying that the right-hander has no leash. He screws up off the field once in any manner beyond a mild traffic infraction and he's toast.
6. I asked around to see if I could find a rep that knows his club asked about Franklin Gutierrez's potential availability and I got two responses. "He's not," was one of them, and the other was, "If he is, they aren't letting it be known, which means they value him more than we do."
7. If you didn't notice, Baseball America's Top 10 was published last month, and while I won't tear it down, it's interesting to say the least. But Prospect Insider's Top 10, at least in my opinion, is even more intriguing, since I've come to a final version this week. The top three are easy, but after that it was difficult, which made me do some homework, make some calls and watch about 16 hours of video.
I can guarantee that No. 4 will surprise most, if not all of you, and that 5-10 will be just as surprising.
Scouring over what I believe to be each MLB club's 11-20, the Mariners' group might be among the best, which suggests the depth in the system is legitimately strong.
8. Don't forget the name Jose Francisco Valdivia. He signed with the M's in 2008, appeared in seven games in 2009 and then disappeared. What happened to him? That will be revealed in the handbook, and then some.
9. Not only will the Tacoma Rainiers have a new Cheney Stadium in April, but they will soon have new ownership. Schlegel Sports is reportedly close to finalizing a deal with The Baseball Club of Tacoma, a local group that includes former owners of the Seattle Supersonics.
Having true local ownership is ideal for the Rainiers, whose lease with the city will be transferred to the new owners once it's made official.
I don't know much about the leaders of the group, Mikal Thomsen and John Stanton, but I'll like them as long as they continue to put Mike Curto on the air 144 times per season.
10. As of today, most I ask believe the M's will lose at least 100 games in 2011, and as many as 110. "It's a roster without depth, without impact talent that puts too much pressure on defense, running the bases and Felix Hernandez," said one former GM now working for a major network. "It's a terrible team, but if you are going to lose big again, you are better off doing it with kids."
The fun part of that discussion was this, however: "If Jack doesn't flip this team into a winner soon, he's done, and he knows it -- I expect Seattle to be players, real players, for every guy out there, (Prince) Fielder, (Matt) Cain, both Uptons ... anyone who can help them win games."
as-of-today-...-plus-notes
Comments
The following 35 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: pwhit44 on 01-15-2011 04:50:36 So. Things look bleak? |
| 2. By: csiems on 01-15-2011 11:37:44 I bet that former GM also suggested signing an about to bust outfielder to a seven year, $126 million contract. |
| 3. By: slamcactus on 01-15-2011 12:00:48 I'll take bets with any of those people that the Ms come in under 100 losses. |
| 4. By: Boy9988 on 01-15-2011 12:20:01 I agree Slamcactus. I'll Take that bet double or nothin. They will approach .500, if not catch or exceed it. |
| 5. By: Rudolf on 01-15-2011 12:52:47 Wish I could share your enthusiasm. Our starting pitching needs to be spectacular to approach .500, because the offense and bullpen are not strengths. I really, really hope they give Jack Z thru 2013 to deliver a winner. |
| 6. By: Perry Noid on 01-15-2011 12:57:35 If that guy was truly adept at gauging the level of talent on a MLB roster I suspect he wouldn't be a former GM. |
| 7. By: maqman on 01-15-2011 13:03:08 One thing about the past season is that it pretty well cleared out the bandwagon riders and just left the real fans on board. No way this team loses over 100 games. |
| 8. By: Boy9988 on 01-15-2011 13:37:13 @Rudolf - Trust me my friend, the offense was so bad last year there is no comparison. The three black holes that the team had were filled with adequate players for the first time in 2yrs. It will be almost impossible for it to be so bad again. |
| 9. By: studentofthegame on 01-15-2011 14:08:55 Yeah I kind of find it hard to buy the 100 (+) loss comment as well. Most people would agree that the M's had decent pitching last year, and that the offense was the culprit of the epic failure of the team. Plus the infield defense should be improved by putting Figgins at his natural position, and the new guys are supposedly pretty tough in the middle infield (Kennedy and Ryan). So the pitchers if anything should see an improvement in their stats. Our outfielders can catch the ball pretty well so no real problem defensively there. The offense is the question. I think Smoak is gonna be good stuff this year. And Cust should be a boost too. The M's are not a total junk pile, but they are not complete yet. I am pretty excited to see what the M's can add in the draft this year too! Rendon? Purke? Cole? One of those right?! And perhaps more since the draft class is deep! I for one am excited for the 2011 M's. |
| 10. By: Quacker27 on 01-15-2011 14:58:56 I don't know how likely .500 is for this team, but I would definitely take the over on 70 wins. |
| 11. By: ghill3406 on 01-15-2011 15:59:58 110 games???!!! Is that "Ex-GM" out of his mind? He must be smoking some funny stuff. No team has lost even close to 110 games since Arizona in 2004....not even the Pirates! This team is considerably better than any team the Pirates have fielded the last 10-15 years. My prediction is 67-95. |
| 12. By: slamcactus on 01-15-2011 16:46:13 "Wish I could share your enthusiasm. Our starting pitching needs to be spectacular to approach .500, because the offense and bullpen are not strengths." Last year's team was historically awful on offense and barely lost 100 games. It got a .609 OPS from DH, a .651 mark from 1B, a .583 mark from 3B, .566 from C, and .570 from SS. Even the bad versions of Cust, Olivo, Smoak, Ryan/Ja. Wilson, and Figgins will blow those #s out of the water, resulting in a dramatically improved (even if still not very good) offense. Yes, we lose a half-season of Cliff Lee from last year's squad, but we also don't bring back RR-S, who was the worst pitcher in baseball when he took the mound last year. A lot needs to go wrong for this team to approach 100+ losses again. Obviously a lot can go wrong (just look at 2010), so it's not completely outside the realm of possibility. But it's a worst-case scenario. It shouldn't be anyone's median projection. |
| 13. By: slamcactus on 01-15-2011 16:48:50 Also, the day I put one milligram of weight into Steve Phillips' opinion as to the projected record of a major league baseball team will be a different day from today. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-15-2011 17:07:42 For the record, that former GM has been in the World Series more than once, in baseball for 35 years and is actually wise on the new age statistical analysis. He was the first to explain the pre-FIP stat "DIPS" to me years ago. He just doesn't see 63 wins or more on that roster. While I don't agree, it's tough to simply say he's way off. If they suffer a key injury or two somewhere, even if it's not to Felix or Ichiro (because every team would suffer badly losing a key player of that regard), they could lose 100-plus again very easily. Disagreeing is fine, it's what we do. But dismissing an opinion from an industry executive is pretty ridiculous. |
| 15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-15-2011 17:23:33 Haha, it's not Phillips, Slam, but I couldn't agree more. Zero credibility. |
| 16. By: sexymarinersfan on 01-15-2011 17:27:51 Just the same, that's his opinion. I would trust your insight as someone who closely follows the team rather than outsider looking in. I've heard that Saunders and Moore short leash story before, which has left me to ponder this. Let's say that we do include Michael Saunders in some kind of trade between now and mid-season, providing that Kennedy and Ryan do a solid job up the middle by the time Dustin Ackley is called up to the big league club, will they keep Dustin at the position he's been preparing for since he was drafted, or does that open some kind of possibility that Eric Wedge just might use him as a left fielder? There's really no forseeable(I think that's a word, lol) outfielder ready for the big league jump after Saunders, unless the young kid nets us a player like an Upton in return. |
| 17. By: sexymarinersfan on 01-15-2011 17:33:30 I guess what I'm asking is that, what's our back up option in case Michael Saunders fails. That would've been a lot easier to say. Haha! |
| 18. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-15-2011 17:36:27 His outlook was very general, but it still holds water. He's the same guy that told me a year ago that the M's would not contend and would have to trade Lee in July, when so many others thought they might contend -- though I was not one of those. If Saunders fails? Not someone in the organization, that is for sure. |
| 19. By: sexymarinersfan on 01-15-2011 17:44:28 That's what I thought. I've heard a lot of people calamoring for Greg Halman, but I think he strikes out too much. I heard he's the got the perfect body for baseball much like A Rod when he first came up. The dude just needs better plate discipline. He could learn a thing or two from Dustin Ackley next year in AAA. So could Carlos Peguero. |
| 20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-15-2011 17:45:33 Also, the 110 was the worst-case scenario, i.e., Felix misses half the year or multiple key injuries impact the season. He's said to me on multiple occasions that 100 losses is what he'd bet, give or take 2-4. |
| 21. By: sexymarinersfan on 01-15-2011 17:49:42 Who's the closest reliever to being called up next year if Dan Cortes and Josh Lueke are up with the ballclub after Spring Training? If we trade David Aardsma somebody has got to be ready to come up. |
| 22. By: ghill3406 on 01-15-2011 19:40:40 #20: Ok, I read your blog entry again and you said, "as many as 110." So, yes, any team with the lack of current talent and experience the M's have can lose 110 games if absolutely everything goes wrong, and I mean everything! That is worst, worst case scenerio. The chances of that happening are possible, but very slim. It is really tough to lose 110 games in a season, only 2 teams have done it in AT LEAST the last 30 years. From my realist perspective, and IMO, this team will fall in the 93-98 loss range. |
| 23. By: Timberwolf on 01-15-2011 19:57:42 I'm just not buying a 100 loss season any more than I am buying a .500 year. Lots of things, like everything but Felix, went wrong last year. We've seen years like 2001 and 2009 where all the breaks went for us and the team won more games than it should have. If this team doesn't win 65 games it means that Eric Wedge was a terrible hire, and that Jack may not be the guy we think he is. It may not be exciting to look forward to a 73-89 season, but it it would constitute progress. Other than Felix getting hurt, it is difficult to imagine regression at any positions. It's like the line from Damn Yankees,"we've got to get better, cause we can't get worse". |
| 24. By: KingFelix on 01-15-2011 19:57:53 So it seems like this season is just to play the kids and hope for the best. Below is a list of projected 2012 payroll if we can trade Figgins sometime this season. I show around 60 million in payroll with needing to fill DH, 3B and a number 2 or 3 type pitcher. We will also need a LF with some pop if Saunders falls on his face in 2011. That should leave us around 40 million to fill these holes, if Jack can make it though 2011 he should have alot of money to play with if we have around a 100 million dollar payroll in 2012. Pos'n Player 2012 RF Suzuki, Ichiro $18,000,000 2B Ackley, Dustin $ 1,500,000 DH NEED $- 1B Smoak, Justin $ 500,000 3B NEED $- CF Gutierrez, Franklin $ 6,000,000 C Olivo, Miguel $ 3,500,000 LF Saunders, Michael $ 500,000 2B/SS Ryan / Franklin $ 1,750,000 C Moore, Adam $ 500,000 UT Tuiasosopo, Matt $ 500,000 OF Halman, Greg $ 500,000 1b/3b Mangini, Matt $ 500,000 3B Truniful $ 500,000 R Hernandez, Felix $19,000,000 R Pineda, Michael $ 500,000 R NEED L Vargas, Jason $ 2,000,000 R Fister, Doug / Cole $ 500,000 L French, Lucas $ 500,000 R Sweeney, Brian $ 500,000 L Robles, Mauricio $ 500,000 L Jimenez, Cesar $ 500,000 R Lueke, Josh $ 500,000 R Cortes, Daniel $ 500,000 TOTAL PAYROLL $59,250,000 If Jack could get a stud 3B, DH, LF and #three type pitcher we could have a solid young team in 2012. And Ichiro's $18,000,000 wage comes off the books for 2013 and this money could be used to lock up long term our young talent if they produce in 2011 and 2012. |
| 25. By: shortstop9 on 01-15-2011 20:02:14 I'm not gonna throw out any names but I think we need a RH OF who can hit lefties on the bench. Another note: what sort of package do you think it would take to get Ryan Sweeney from Oakland? They seem to have no room for him. |
| 26. By: mazono on 01-15-2011 20:41:24 SS9-Ryan Sweeney seems to track down everything the M's hit into the outfield. Kingfelix- trading Figgins does open up payroll but who replaces Ichiro in 2013 as leadoff. I hope Figgins rebounds but I am not on the bandwagon to trade him. |
| 27. By: on 01-15-2011 20:51:59 Boy9988 and Slam, I'm not saying we're going to lose 100 games or more. I'm saying that to be so certain this team is beyond that possibility is incredibly optimistic. The offense doesn't have to suck eggs for this team to wallow. With a team such as ours, considering the relative strength of our division and the American League, I feel 2010 is a good year to cheer for the home team without the burden of expectations. Will fans like myself cheer for anything less than a Mariner victory every night? Absolutely not. Am I going draw a line in the sand at 73 wins? Hell no. I'd love nothing more than to watch Felix, Bedard, Pineda, Vargas and Fister lead us to the playoffs with the greatest defense of all time behind them. But if we lose 100 games, or 95 games, or whatever, it warms my heart to know that we're a team moving in the right direction. |
| 28. By: bavasisabum on 01-15-2011 21:45:22 Not sure if this has been brought up before or not but what do you guys think about the idea of a Vargas for Chamberlain swap. Seems like it would make a lot of sense for both sides. He seems to just be getting Morrowed around in New York. Since we are rebuilding seems like there would be enough patience and innings to try starting; Trading solid and consistent and gambling on the higher upside. |
| 29. By: rjfrik on 01-15-2011 21:48:14 Well if we are going to lose around 100 games again next year I guess we would be in line for a top 3 pick. Jason, any early early top 3 amateur prospect list for the 2012 mlb draft? |
| 30. By: rjfrik on 01-15-2011 22:05:41 I will answer my own question. Well guys if we are indeed in line for about 100 losses next year we should have a top 5 pick. Here is the All-American Athletic Foundations top 10 for 2012 MLB draft. 1. Lance McCullers RHP/SS Tampa Jesuit HS 2. Mark Appel RHP Stanford 3. Nick Williams OF Ball HS 4. Kenny Diekroeger SS Stanford 5. Trey Williams 3B/OF Valencia HS 6. Lucas Giolito RHP Harvard Westlake HS 7. Deven Marrero SS Arizona St. 8. Brian Goodwin OF North Carolina 9. Steve Nyisztor SS/2B Rutgers 10. Jake Barrett RHP Arizona St. So one could guess that there would be a very good chance that one of these boys will be an M in 2012. It's nice to see seven position players on the list especially in areas of need. SS and OF. After the 2012 draft we should be very well stocked for the future. |
| 31. By: Rudolf on 01-15-2011 23:43:14 Bavasisabum, I thought the exact same thing. I don't know if the M's could survive without Vargas as the roster currently stands. How down on Joba are the scouts these days? |
| 32. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-16-2011 02:09:58 No reason to even peek at the 2012 list right now. At this time last year, the 2011 top 10 list didn't include four guys who belong there without a doubt. Also, Brian Goodwin is a 2011 draft prospect, not 2012. He left UNC and enrolled at Miami Dade after being suspended. |
| 33. By: ghill3406 on 01-16-2011 02:55:35 Jason is right. So much can happen b/w now and June 2012, but Deven Marrero is a stud! Future All-Star SS. Also, keep an eye out for Lance McCullers and Nick Williams. |
| 34. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-16-2011 03:09:18 If Marrero can actually play SS long-term, he's a top 10 pick most likely. If he's a 2B, first round for sure. |
| 35. By: ghill3406 on 01-16-2011 13:13:25 Without a doubt Top 10 pick if he can stay at SS, which I believe he can. Saw him in the Cape this past summer. |
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