Prospect Insider - Barmes, Nathan and market trends

Barmes, Nathan and market trends

By Adam H. Wong

By 11-23-2011

The great thing about the off-season is that there's always action. Although there are no games to play, there's always roster movement -- whether it's lateral or vertical -- and it often makes for great water-cooler conversation. The Hot Stove is definitely heating up, and it seems like both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Texas Rangers have spent too much time around the pot.

Clint Barmes is the Pirates shortstop of the future -- the limited future of the next two years. Barmes will make $10.5 million during his stay in the City of Bridges. At 32, he is somewhat of a bargain for the franchise. He won't break the bank like deserving shortstops like Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins, and he won't demand an inflated veteran free agent salary like Rafael Furcal. In essence, it's a good move for the Pirates. They fill a need with a veteran presence without breaking the bank; the problem is that Barmes' track record doesn't justify $5.25 million a year.

It's apparent that the Pirates are willing to spend cash quickly to get the players they want, made evident by the swift signing of Rod Bajaras over a week ago. With the position that Pittsburgh is in, it's unfortunate that a talented player like Ronny Cedeno gets passed over. Barmes had a great year with the Houston Astros, but at age 33 in 2012, he doesn't project to improve. The Pirates would've put the franchise in a better position to compete down the road if they had invested in a cost effective player like Cedeno.

Interestingly enough, Brendan Ryan and Barmes put up eerily identical numbers in 2011:

Two in the Same
Player	Games	PA	H	HR	R	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG
Barmes	123	495	109	13	47	3	7.70%	17.80%	0.141	0.279	.244	.312	.386
Ryan	123	494	108	3	51	13	6.90%	17.60%	0.078	0.299	.248	.313	326

I still can't stop staring.

This means two things for Seattle Mariners fans. Firstly, Ryan is a great financial deal for the franchise. He'll be 30 going into the 2012 season, two years younger than Barmes, and will be arbitration eligible the following season. Although Ryan has been chastised for the lack of thump in his bat, his contributions defensively have been more than adequate, and his positive influence in the club house has been aptly reported. Ryan will only make $1.75 million in 2012, and as of right now it's looking like a smart investment.

Secondly, this signing makes abundantly clear what the free agent market values: power. The disparities between the two shortstops are painfully apparent: Barmes' home run potential over Ryan's defense and baserunning ability. Ryan isn't going to fix the Mariners' offensive woes. But if the club's philosophy is to build a strong defensive core up the middle, then he is the ideal player for the position Seattle is in, and he won't cost much if they decide to keep him around.

Joe Nathan is the other head-scratcher of recent news. The Rangers contract of $14.5 million guaranteed over two years is steep for a pitcher who had Tommy John surgery in 2010 and a bipolar 2011. Before heading to the disabled list this year, he posted a 7.63 ERA and held batters to a .274/.370/.500 slash line. After his late May DL-stint, he posted a 3.38 ERA and held batters to a .193/.239/.367 slash line. Although there was a marked improvement, it still doesn't justify throwing that amount of money at an aging 37-year old reliever. Once again the market shows that it confuses age and experience with efficiency and potential.

It's more than common knowledge that, if your name isn't Mariano Rivera, relievers' success is fickle. This move is a loud hint that Neftali Feliz is going to move to the rotation, and puts Texas in an interesting spot. If Nathan can return to his old form and hold down the ninth inning, then it will be a great investment. The club didn't have to go out and overspend on closers like Heath Bell or Francisco Rodriguez, while moving a potential ace to the rotation.

The downside of the move is that Feliz might end up with Brandon Morrow syndrome. More often than not, big power arms are rushed to the big leagues and thrown into the bullpen to gain experience, not unlike the Aroldis Chapman situation.

Although most players state that they'll do anything to help the club, taking a player out of their routine may be detrimental to their development down the road. A pitcher knowing that they'll pitch every fifth day is a completely different mindset than being "on call". It's a whole different monster.

I'm glad Bill Bavasi isn't around Seattle anymore. He would've announced Michael Pineda as the Mariners' closer for 2012 by now.

Adam H. Wong can be reached via email at wong@prospectinsider.com. Follow him on Twitter here.

barnes,-nathan-and-market-trends
Comments
The following 4 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1.  By: maqman on 11-23-2011 13:23:58
I had a similar take on Feliz and Nathan as you, there is some room for problems to crop up for the Rangers pitching. May not happen, probably won't, but it can for sure. Barmes value is in his bat but it would be worth less in The Safe, if Babe Ruth hit there he'd still do well being a lefty but some HOF righties might not be so revered is they spent their careers there.

2.  By: StandinPat on 11-23-2011 13:34:38
Barmes hasn't provided value with his bat in three years, and he's played in some extreme hitter's parks.

3.  By: DMac33 on 11-29-2011 16:27:24
So let me see if I have this straight:

You are saying that the stat line for Barmes and Ryan are about the same ... while glossing over the power (10 homers) and slugging (60 points) by saying that the market overvalue the stat.

It would seem to me that those are fairly significant differences - although I would agree that for where the Mariners are they are ok with Ryan and his contract for another year.

Regarding Nathan, I think you just flat miss the mark.

It's generally acknowledged that it takes anywhere up to a year after coming back to the mound after TJ surgery to get your stuff back. Last I checked, an around .600 OPS for a pitcher is generally considered pretty good ... which is what Nathan did after his stint on the DL.

Your downside essentially is talking about the effects of moving Feliz to the rotation (where he has stated he'd rather be - and how did that work out for Ogando this year) and saying that Nathan's a bit on the older side ... although he's been an elite closer for how many years before his injury?

4.  By: Adam H. Wong on 11-30-2011 23:30:15
DMac33,

Sadly, the Mariners would do anything for ten more home runs from any player, so it is significant. However, Yuniesky Betancourt had a similar line to Barmes' this year - 13 HR, .252/.271/.381 - so the Pirates essentially paid $10 million for a Yuni clone who can get on base slightly better. Barmes put up a 3.1 WAR in 2011 against Ryan's 2.6. Negligible difference, nearly identical contribution to wins.

As for Nathan: it's still a risk. Will the risk be worth it? Probably. Using Feliz in the bullpen is a waste of his abilities.

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