| By Adam H. Wong |  | By 01-04-2012 |
The Seattle Mariners have a few holes to fill with the big league club. The top of their starting rotation isn't one of them. They already have a true top of the rotation starter, and it goes without saying that...well, on second thought, I'm just going to go ahead and not say it. It may break some writing rule or convention, but, there. It went without saying.
Michael Pineda showcased his ability to completely overpower hitters in the first half of the 2011 season. While his numbers deteriorated and his performance substantially came back down to earth after a spectacular first half of the season, his resolve and attitude showed that he is more than capable of handling the No. 2 slot.
Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on your outlook, the status of Jason Vargas' contract is currently in arbitration, and the Mariners will likely end up spending anywhere from $4 to $5 million on him this year. Whether you like him or not, Vargas will be coming back for the 2012 season, and he'll probably be slotted in the No. 3 position.
That leaves the back end of the rotation to be filled. Seattle has kicked the tires on a handful of free agents, and they have a couple of in-house solutions as well. Let's look at a few options that the Mariners can do to build the back of the rotation.
Danny Hultzen
Reports have stated that Jack Zduriencik drafted Danny Hultzen because he is major league ready and was a low-risk pick. While there is an inherent risk to drafting any pitcher, Hultzen's utilization of his lower body and easy mechanics suggest that he'll be a durable arm in any franchise.
His projected floor as a left-handed pitcher is comparable to Randy Wolf, while he could have as much upside as Cliff Lee. Cliff Lee! What I would give to watch Lee pitch in a Mariners uniform again. Hultzen has the command and the stuff to be a solid No. 2 starter, and no one can complain about that type of ceiling.
If the organization truly drafted him because he was major league ready, it's more than likely that he'll make the club out of spring training. That's assuming he doesn't tank during his starts in the Cactus League. The $8.35 million he's owed over the span of five years might help expedite the front office's decision.
Blake Beavan
Beavan got a taste of the big leagues last year, with opponents putting up a .278/.307/.459 against him. His slash line against looks pretty unspectacular, but there are still a few nuggets of hope we can glean from his handful of starts. He averaged around 6.2 IP in 2012. He averaged around 160 innings within the past three years, and he looks to at least throw as many, if not more.
The biggest upside that he can contribute to any big league club is his highly touted control. Out of all of the pitches he threw last year, 33 percent of them were called balls. Of comparable pitchers who threw a similar amount of pitches, Rich Harden had about 37% of his pitches called balls, and Aaron Cook's pitches sat about 38 percent. While velocity isn't the best weapon in his toolbox, Beavan stays in and around the zone enough to contribute as a fifth starter. As long as he stays in Safeco Field or other pitcher friendly parks, his flyball pitching style will remain an adequate addition to any rotation.
Charlie Furbush
There are Furbush detractors out there. His delivery his too wild, his Gumby-like arms can't replicate a consistent delivery. Most say he'll never be more than a No. 5 starter or swing-man. I'm not one of those detractors. He generates good arm speed through great hip-shoulder separation, and will generate swinging strikes because of the deception in his delivery.
As much as I can't disagree with said concerns about Furbush, it's hard to argue that he doesn't have some upside. His fastball hovers around 91 mph, his changeup clocks in around 81 mph, and he creates late life on his breaking stuff. While my infatuation for this beanpole of a pitcher isn't as great as Jason Churchill's love for Mike Stanton, Furbush could turn some heads if he can batten down his delivery.
While at the big league level, however, Furbush doesn't project more than a spot-starter or a relief role. As it stands right now, the biggest upside Furbush has going for him is that he's left-handed. But with arms like Hernandez or Pineda, handedness doesn't really matter, and management probably won't be worrying about lefty-righty match-ups as opposing lineups creep towards the back of the rotation.
Jeff Francis
The problem with Francis, other than him being Jeff Francis, is that the Mariners already have a Jeff Francis. His name is Jason Vargas. Both are finesse pitchers that rely on the efficiency of their changeup and their precision. Although Francis more of a groundball pitcher and Vargas is a flyball pitcher, their results are the same. Their career 4.40 FIP is identical.
If the Mariners plan on dealing their pool of young pitching, finding value in free agency for the back of the rotation then becomes a priority. Stanton, for example, is one of those guys you'd want to give your top prospects for, likely a Pineda-plus package. If that were to happen, you'd need someone to fill a starter role. Francis would do exactly that, but he would have a hard time filling his uniform, because he's a beanpole like Furbush. Although a team full of beanpoles would confuse opposing lineups, since seeing a bean pole on a pitching mound would be confusing.
Jamie Moyer
It's the Mariners fans' sadistic fantasy that Moyer would return. Other than for pure nostalgia, there's no legitimate benefit to having Moyer back in Mariners blue. Although the word on the street was that there were a few Seattle scouts that watched him throw, Moyer's days as a pitcher are probably nearing a close. He probably aged so fast because his changeup takes so long to reach home plate.
Hisashi Iwakuma
Yesterday, reports came out stating that, amid a handful of other clubs, Iwakuma was in closest agreement with the Mariners. A deal with Iwakuma satisfies two needs: a need for a back of the rotation starter, and the need to prolong Japanese influence with the Seattle Mariners. As much as I think that a club shouldn't be built around the need to please its foreign ownership group, it's hard to deny that the tourism and intrigue that Ichiro Suzuki's presence brought to the Japanese populus near and around Seattle was beneficial to the outlying community and economy. This could be a tactic along those lines, or the Mariners simply see him as the best available, most affordable option. See: Jeff Francis.
He throws a shuuto, a pitch described as mix between a sinker and screwball, and his fastball sits in the high-80s. He's been described as a strike-throwing, groundball inducing innings eater, and the Mariners should expect a decent workload from him. He pitched more than 160 innings each year from 2008 to 2010, but due to shoulder problems last year, that number dropped to 119. The biggest workload in his career was about 201 innings, and if he can produce those results stateside, it would stand as a good investment.
Projected 2012 starting rotation
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Michael Pineda
3. Jason Vargas
4. Hisashi Iwakuma
5. Danny Hultzen
I think it's very likely that Hultzen makes the club out of spring training. Eric Wedge and Zduriencik seem to be people who foster the thought of role fulfillment. Step into a role, and if you live up to exceed expectations, that role is yours. This is how Jamey Wright slotted into the set-up man role, Mike Carp batted clean-up in the last stretch of the season, and Brandon League became the closer and stayed the closer, even after his meltdown in May.
If Hultzen performs to the standard that Pineda did in spring training, it's a lock that he would make the club. Beavan would probably start the year in Tacoma, as he could hone his current skill-set. This increases the soon to be 23-year-old's value to clubs entertaining the thought of picking up a young arm, and I don't think the Mariners have Beavan in their long term plans. Still, a 6' 7", 240 pound athlete is intriguing, so clubs should be interested in that body type.
Furbush could slot into the long relief role or start in Tacoma. It probably bodes more positively for his development if he starts in AAA so he can work on that weed-wacker delivery.
The likes of James Paxton and Taijuan Walker aren't likely to start the year with the Mariners, as Walker is still only 19, and Paxton still could use a little more seasoning.
Like Jason mentioned in an earlier article, the Mariners are poised to have one of the best, if not the best, starting rotations in baseball in the near future. We'll see in the coming weeks how Seattle decides to bridge the gap between now and then.
Adam H. Wong can be reached via email at wong@prospectinsider.com. Follow him on Twitter here.
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Comments
The following 20 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: pwhit44 on 01-05-2012 00:43:27 If Pineda-plus could really land Stanton, that trade should be made yesterday. Seriously. Three steps to success: 1) Sign Fielder 2) Pineda package for Stanton 3) Bide time until Hultzen, Paxton and Walker go crazypants. Ta-dah! |
| 2. By: MarinersArmy on 01-05-2012 01:04:46 Unfortunately, I don't think Fielder wants to come here. Maybe money talks. And as for Stanton, the Marlins just acquired Zambrano and I believe they already have a full rotation (Johnson/Buerhle/A. Sanchez/Nolasco/Zambrano). But I'd love to have Stanton... |
| 3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-05-2012 01:07:18 I don't know where the idea that Pineda+ could get Stanton came from... That won't happen. |
| 4. By: pwhit44 on 01-05-2012 01:09:28 It came from --> "Stanton, for example, is one of those guys you'd want to give your top prospects for, likely a Pineda-plus package." I was surprised by it. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-05-2012 01:11:55 And who said it? |
| 6. By: pwhit44 on 01-05-2012 01:14:45 It's a direct quote from the article above. Under the "Jeff Francis" heading. I was just responding to the words and what not. :) |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-05-2012 01:15:48 So where did the near-assumption that it was plausible come from? Guessing? I'm just wondering. Thought maybe someone said it was. |
| 8. By: pwhit44 on 01-05-2012 01:23:45 I guess I'm confused. Maybe I'm reading Adam's sentence incorrectly. I guess I read plausibility into the sentence. It was presented as an example, but to me it was easy to infer that is was plausible. I donno, didn't mean to cause a ruckus at all! Sorries. |
| 9. By: Adam H. Wong on 01-05-2012 01:36:28 Ah. I was simply postulating that if you lose a future star like Pineda, he needs to be replaced, albeit the caliber of player replacing him would be contingent on the direction of the club. Stanton was just on my mind when I wrote that, because he would use Furbush and Francis as toothpicks. |
| 10. By: greentunic on 01-05-2012 02:44:55 What needs to go right for Hultzen to become Cliff Lee? With scouts already saying he's very polished, what real improvement is plausible? Do you expect... -his stuff to improve? -great pitching smarts (a la Haladay, Moyer, Maddux)? -even better control/command (Cliff Lee really is the best example here) I'm just trying to understand the evaluation of "low floor/low ceiling" as claimed by scouts. |
| 11. By: greentunic on 01-05-2012 02:50:19 Also, I too was confused like pwhit44 about Pineda-plus. Don't feel bad chum! |
| 12. By: Lamda on 01-05-2012 04:19:18 It was right there in the post above - don't feel bad just because Jason can't read, lol. Would have been better had he read, comprehended, then responded instead of the usual pop-off but hey, its what we've come to expect. |
| 13. By: rightwingrick on 01-05-2012 11:09:16 I, too, think Hultzen will pitch in Seattle in 2012, but I'm guessing later in the year, post-All-Star game. Unless, of course, he just completely dominates in spring training. I suspect Jack and company want to see him in at least some AA or AAA competition before throwing him to the wolves at the major league level. I also think it's because Blake Beavan surprised everyone with his steadiness after his call-up. Going 5-6 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.247 WHIP (especially as a 22 year old) with a team that lost as many games as the M's did...is nothing to sneeze at. Yeah, Beavan only struck out 3.9 per nine innings, but his minor league career shows 5.3K per nine, and if he moves in that direction while maintaining his WHIP (likely, since his overall minor league WHIP was a very similar 1.236), then former first round pick (#17 overall)Beavan becomes a very interesting commodity. One has to take into account how young he is (only 23), how big a horse he is (that's a positive statement, 6'7", 250), and the fact that when drafted he was hitting 96 MPH, now is throwing 91-92, and could move back up with maturity. If Beavan looks as solid in spring training as he did last year upon being called up, I think the M's go with him in the rotation and see if he blossoms into something appearing to have a higher long-term upside, or at least positions himself to draw some serious mid-season trade interest as a very solid #3 or #4 guy. |
| 14. By: Edman on 01-05-2012 11:25:09 I doubt that Seattle has enough of what the Marlins would want to even consider Stanton. People should stop talking about it as if it was a real possibility. Any deal for Stanton would likely start with Ackley, and at least one of Pineda, Hultzen or Walker, and then add a couple more prospects. I can't see Jack doing a deal like that, not even for Stanton. |
| 15. By: maqman on 01-05-2012 13:44:41 I would hope Z would consider Ackley, Pineda and a couple of other decent prospects for Stanton. It's an outrageous package but he's an outrageous bat. Personally I think Beavan and Vargas will be better this coming season. Furbush and Iwakuma not so much. |
| 16. By: Edman on 01-05-2012 14:03:01 The point is that the Marlins are not in a situation where they feel they have to trade Stanton. They are trying to win not, not building for the future. They won't trade him unless there is a need to. Winning now eliminates the idea of him being traded. So, let's no imagine for what has an extremely small chance of happening. Stay within the lines of reasoning. |
| 17. By: formerstarQB16 on 01-05-2012 15:31:03 "I would hope Z would consider Ackley, Pineda and a couple of other decent prospects for Stanton." This would be an absolutely dreadful trade. Just Ackley and Pineda for Stanton would be a terrible deal. That's 7.5+ WAR a year basically guaranteed for a guy (albeit an extremely talented young guy) who's best season is 4.5 WAR. Not to mention the risk of putting all your eggs in one basket. |
| 18. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-05-2012 17:27:46 I love Mike Stanton 2.0 as a ballplayer. I think his bat is insane and like many of you, would love to see him use it in a Mariner uniform. But this. Will not. Happen. Any Stanton trade for the Marlins is a statement of intent to rebuild. Nothing the Marlins have done this off-season tells me that they think a rebuild is in order. They're looking to win now, and Stanton is going to help them do just that for the next four years-plus. So, as a consolation prize we'll just have to settle for watching Ackley, Smoak, Pineda, Hultzen, Walker, Paxton et al develop for us. Oh, woe. (Nails hand to forehead in sarcasm) |
| 19. By: maqman on 01-06-2012 13:35:59 I agree Miami is not going to give up Stanton, that would be stupid. IF they had a brain lock and offered him he would be worth a lot. I'd give up more for him than for Prince because he's worth it IMO. |
| 20. By: JonPax on 01-07-2012 17:53:21 Ande to think we could have drafted Mike Stanton. But, no, we drafted Danny Almonte (who is still in High A) instead and Stanton was drafted one pick later. |
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