Prospect Insider - Bullpen, draft picks and the AFL

Bullpen, draft picks and the AFL

By Jason A. Churchill

By 08-17-2010

We're just about through the entire minor league schedule and the one question asked of me in years past now has a different answer.

That answer contains legitimate options, rather than the usual "not really, and it's common for clubs to get their relievers on the trade and free agent market, or to take failed starters and flip them into the bullpen."

The Seattle Mariners have four right-handers with legitimate late-inning stuff, thanks to a trade, a role change and the draft. So yes, the club has relief prospects now. It's a bit odd to have more than one or two, but in Josh Lueke, Dan Cortes, Stephen Pryor and Josh Fields, that's what they have.

Lueke and Cortes probably see the big leagues in September, and they have already received a nickname from Prospect Insider, one that is aimed at their wicked stuff, not their off field experiences. [both have had run-ins with the law]

Meet Sick and Twisted. Sick is whoever pitches the eighth and sets up the closer. Twisted is whichever of the two end up closing it out. Right now, that's Cortes in the eighth -- Sick -- Lueke in the ninth -- Twisted.

Pryor is a year-plus away, Fields has a lot of work to do to get back on track, but the stuff is still there. If David Aardsma and/or Brandon League are traded this winter, at both Lueke and Cortes will likely start 2011 on the big-league roster.

And there's a chance they make the club regardless.

Tyler Burgoon is another potential relief prospect that came from this year's draft, offering a 91-95 mph fastball and a slider that flashes as an out pitch.

Arizona Fall League
The AFL rosters were released a few days back and the Mariners are again sending Dustin Ackley and Fields. Ackley needs as much work as he can get at second base, so it makes a lot of sense, but I do worry about the kid tiring out. He's been at it hard since this time last year when he signed, went to Arizona to work out and stayed in the desert through the fall league last November.

Cortes and Lueke will also pitch for the Peoria Javelinas, and joining the above foursome are Matt Mangini and right-hander Maikel Cleto.

For Cleto, 2011 is a make-or-break year as a starting pitching prospect. Mangini may be switching position soon, if not during his stint in Arizona this fall.

Nate Tenbrink is the most interest position player the M's are sending down, since we already know Ackley is good. Tenbrink has displayed some pop and advanced plate skills at times this season, and another stint against good competition is a good challenge for him and may convince some scouts one way or the other on his prospect status.

Draft pick to prospect
Marcus Littlewood signed Monday, getting $900,000 as the No. 67 overall pick. Since he's officially part of the organization now, I scanned over the depth charts and put together a quick Top 25.

While I won't reveal the entire list just yet -- wait for the digital handbook this winter -- Littlewood came in at No. 8. Things can change between now and March, but I don't think his spot among the rankings will change a whole lot and I seriously doubt he ends up outside the top 10.

Jordan Shipers ended up in the mid-teens and Taijuan Walker a few spots behind Littlewood.

Photos of Josh Lueke, top right, Dan Cortes, bottom left, by Paul Marsh

bullpen,-draft-picks-and-the-afl

Comments
The following 28 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: randallball on 08-17-2010 17:27:21
Very promising...I just wish there was a lefty in that group.

RE: The prospect rankings, you mentioned in the mid-season top 30 that you were working on a top 10 Latin American list (that wasn't in the top 30 mid-season)...then the draft, Cliff Lee stuff and trade deadline shifted into high gear. Any plans on still doing some sort of post on that?

If not, maybe just post the 10 names you would throw on that list for the M's?

Thanks as always - great stuff. Love the nickname(s), by the way.

2. By: southpaw360 on 08-17-2010 17:31:09
Once again very interesting article. Thanks.

I agree with randallball on the top 10 Latin American list. I am looking forward to that article if it is still in the works.

3. By: jv075 on 08-17-2010 17:31:29
Do you have any info or any feeling that the M's higher ups might push for a Lueke trade because of his past off-the-field issues?

4. By: Blowgun7 on 08-17-2010 17:39:34
Great stuff. Can't wait til we get those power arms back in Seattle. This organization for the last decade plus always has had power pen arms that have been exciting to watch. Right now it's wierd seeing these junkballers we are currently using in the pen.

5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-17-2010 17:51:47
I think Lueke is on a last-chance deal with the M's. He screws up once in any legal manner, he's out.

But all signs point to him doing the right things and having turned things around. And there is a lot of grey area in the incident in question, anyway.

As for the Lat Am top 10, it's just about done, I just haven't posted it because I keep getting more information.

6. By: randallball on 08-17-2010 18:24:09
Awesome - thanks!

7. By: Jimabbottsrighthand on 08-17-2010 20:46:46
I look forward to hearing what you have to say about Felipe Burin. Seeing what he did in the VSL this year, I would like to know how legit he is.

8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-17-2010 20:48:36
Jim,

I do talk about Burin in the Lat Am piece. Mostly defense, though, but... you'll see.

9. By: Jimabbottsrighthand on 08-17-2010 20:53:51
I look forward to hearing what you have to say about Felipe Burin. Seeing what he did in the VSL this year, I would like to know how legit he is.

10. By: Jimabbottsrighthand on 08-17-2010 20:54:26
That's the part I'm worried about.

11. By: Lailoken on 08-17-2010 21:29:36
Exciting developments with the bullpen. Robles in AAA may be looking at a bullpen role if he can't go deeper into games too. Paredes has looked alright in AAA too so there may be some legitimate lefty options coming as well. Burgoon sounds like a nice value.

Spending less on the bullpen in 2011 is one way GMZ can throw some cash at a 3B or SS to upgrade the offense.

Can't wait for the Latin Am Top Ten too. I've been eagerly anticipating that for what seems like a few weeks but the more info the better. Brandol Perez is a guy I just have to hear about.

Littlewood, Franklin, & Smoak as switch-hitters makes for an interesting future infield.

Great work as always, JAC. Thanks.

12. By: bcsimons on 08-17-2010 21:44:11
I'm assuming the Latin Am Top Ten will be subscriber only? Or is it going to be for everyone?

13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-17-2010 21:55:12
It'll be free for all, bc.

14. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 08-17-2010 23:42:40
I was wondering if Jonathan Hesketh had popped up on anyones radar. It looks as if the M's may have found a diamond in the rough with the 20th round pick from last year.

15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-18-2010 00:06:15
Undersized (a generous 6 feet) and overaged (24) left-hander has been merely solid in Midwest and Cal Leagues. Average stuff at best -- FB, CB, CH -- decent delivery, but may not have durability to remain in rotation long term.

16. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 08-18-2010 09:52:21
I've been kicking this around in my head since Micah Owings was designated for assignment. What are the chances that a team could forget about Owings as a pitcher and instead trade for him with the express intent of converting him to an outfielder (a la Ankiel) or maybe even a 3B (I know that's probably a stretch, but he's described as an above average athlete, hense the question)?? I'd think that his bat is major league ready now and with consistent plate appearances he could maybe even get better. Do you think that he could be a league average corner outfielder? How about a slightly below average 3B defensively with plus offense? Is 270/330/450 a reasable expectation for him as a regular position player? That'd make him the 2nd best hitter on the Mariners right now. Sad commentary, but true. I'd think that would hold value, plus the ability to throw him in as an innings eater in a blowout or if a game goes extra instead of relying on the Jamie Burkes' of the world.

17. By: Edman on 08-18-2010 13:15:19
Has anyone heard what Stanek's demands were? Considering that the M's were willing to go over-slot for Shipers, it's hard to imagine that they wouldn't have considered reasonable over-slot money for Stanek.

#16, I worry about any hitter who's been away from swinging a bat on a regular basis. To think he's major league ready right now is unrealistic. Hitting is about eye-hand coordination and without repetition, you don't have consistancy. He'd probably need close to a full season in the minors if he was to shift positions.

And, don't you think if the Reds thought he could be a regular position player who can produce the line you suggest, they'd have done so by now?

18. By: junglist215 on 08-18-2010 14:11:59
According, to this report, Stanek was looking for roughly $1.2 million.

19. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-18-2010 14:17:23
Which is what i said in the piece Monday... some of you don't read.

20. By: Edman on 08-18-2010 15:43:16
Unless I missed something, which is possible, you said he wanted late sandwich-pick money, or more. There was no dollar amount given. Or more could be a little more, or a lot more.

21. By: rjfrik on 08-18-2010 16:25:45
LOL Jason. A lot of people don't read on here.

22. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-18-2010 16:33:59
Sandwich-round money = average of more than $800k. "Or more" certainly wouldn't be $2 million plus, that is absurd, of course.

And I was told the actual bottom-rung for camp Stanek was 1.25, but they entered Monday asking for 1.5.

I would have given him 1.25, personally, but there may have been portions of the process that Seattle didn't feel right about. It's not a major loss.

Getting Paxton done before Spring Training is key now, however.

23. By: Edman on 08-18-2010 17:16:16
I don't think it's a great loss, either. It would have been nice to sign him, but the money has to make sense.

And considering that nobody expected Seattle to sign Shipers, it's somewhat of a loss, but not a big one.

The side aspect is that it keeps a rival from drafting him. Not optimum, but at least it's something. We'll see in a couple of years how wise a decision that was.

24. By: Chipanese on 08-18-2010 22:59:34
I can't wait to see our top 30 prospects. Ji-man Choi has caught my eye. I can't believe he was promoted to high desert. (My first comment here btw)

25. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 08-20-2010 02:09:35
Edman, I've been watching the Reds because my parents live in Cincinnati and they are the only MLB games I can get to in person and I assure you, management isn't that smart, they want to extend Dusty Baker, who might be the most overrated managers in baseball right now, plus all the ex-Cards who they sign because Jocketty can't re-evaluate players without looking at who was on his one championship team and finally there is the fact Bavasi works for them.

Cincinnati not trying it with Owings doesn't mean anything. I'm just not sure if Jason or someone else might have a handle on what he could be as a fielder. Micah Owings is 6'5 and 230, a great hitters frame if he could hold down a position. His career slash .293/.323/.538 over 137 G, 198 PA, 184 AB, 54 H, 14 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, with 8 BB and 62 SO.

I think with more PAs his K% would drop and his BB% would go up (PH by rule are supposed to be more aggressive hitters, which his rates support), and his power numbers are undeniable, 46% XBH is too high to ignore. That's Pujols/Dunn levels. If he's basically a .300 hitter now while sporting a .850 OPS, I wonder what he could be with regular at bats. Regression? Progression? He should've been a hitter from the beginning and maybe he'd be a .900+ OPS hitter from what he's done in his career to date with inconsistant plate appearances.

So the question is, can he field well enough to not embarrass himself? Can you sell him on the idea of earning his paycheck with a bat rather than his arm? Is his release open the door to a low priced long-term guaranteed contract that allows him to work on the hitting. Maybe $4MM over 3 years with a $2MM signing bonus. So does anyone have any insight on to him as a fielder? If not, I won't beat the horse after it's dead. Just thought this was a question for the scouts since I can't find any history of him playing the field.

26. By: rosterbatorextraordinaire on 08-20-2010 02:35:30
Jason and Chris, I'd like to hear what BOTH of you think individually (that's not to say others can't weigh in, just want to hear what BOTH you guys think). Combining current production, future projections, and depth, if you could throw out a overall farm system ranking today, where would the Mariners fall?? 6th, 10th, 13th?

I'd be curious how everyone else on here feels and whether the opinions of Jason and Chris made you adjust your ranking. I'm not looking for a three day answer, more of just a feel. I think everyone must have some number in their head, Dave Cameron said 6th for organization, but I'm curious about our farm specifically.

If I had to throw out a number, I'd say 7th, but definitely Top 10 in baseball. Here's my list of teams with equal or better farm systems. Oakland, Texas, KC, Boston, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Atlanta, and Florida.

27. By: aksuited on 08-20-2010 13:52:33
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=2915

so the mariners do get a 3rd round comp for not signing Stanek? I thought they don't give out 3rd round comp picks.

28. By: Lailoken on 08-21-2010 16:39:08
From Wikipedia:

For compensation for not signing a third round pick, teams would get a pick in a supplemental round between the third and fourth rounds.

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