| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-19-2008 |
It's been almost a month, so I guess it's about time I chime in on the hiring of general manager Jack Zduriencik.
I'll start off by saying that, based on what I learned from others in the game of baseball about each of the candidates, Zduriencik would have been my third choice behind Toronto Blue Jays Assistant Tony LaCava and Arizona Diamondbacks Director of Player Personnel Jerry Dipoto.
LaCava is the total package; connected to the nines, very well respected baseball guy, very open-minded, has a belief system that includes scouting, statistical analysis and a blend of old and new. He's also very adept at market analysis, which might be among the most critical aspects of big-league talent evaluation.
The front office he would have brought to Seattle with him would have been dynamic, including the kind of names all of us in the blogosphere could have easily identified with immediately.
DiPoto brings his own presence, and while he lacks experience in certain critical areas, he did have one thing on Zduriencik: Six years of baseball operations experience, versus the pseudo two seasons Jack spent in a dual role in Milwaukee.
Zduriencik is a scout at heart, much like former M's GM Pat Gillick, but has relationships with several analysis-based scout types, which is why it was so easy for him to come forward and talk about building such a department in Seattle.
He'll get the last say on all baseball decisions, at least until the club loses 90 games in 2011 after being picked to win the division during the pre-season, and he's very confident in both his own and his subordinates' abilities to evaluate the talent at hand.
Clearly, after hiring Don Wakamatsu to be the 14th skipper in club history, Zduriencik is not solely about those he already knows and will make decisions based on the situation's own merit, rather than a pre-disposed process that provides an answer before the work has been done.
In the end, I think hire was... OK.
I think Jack Zduriekcik is a half way guy, a 50 percent GM.
The Seattle Mariners are at zero - among the very worst teams in baseball with a mediocre farm system and a top 10 payroll- they want to be at 100 - Consistent playoff team and more than an occasional World Series contender - and I see Jack getting the M's about halfway home.
I'm not sitting here telling you that he isn't capable of more than that, but if I was betting, that's as far as I'd go, and it isn't exactly going out on a limb, of course.
Zduriencik, Scouting Director Tom McNamara and Player Development Director Pedro Grifol, who has managing, coaching and scouting experience, WILL BUILD A VERY STRONG FARM SYSTEM.
It's the one thing that isn't really debatable: Jack Zduriencik will oversee strong scouting and player development departments. Period.
I take the hire as a "walk before you run" type deal. The Mariners have to get to 50 before they can get to 70, 80 or 100, and there may not have been a better candidate for that task.
If Jack can stay within his strengths, the Mariners will be a playoff team within three or four years, and have a chance to be strong every season thereafter.
But despite playing in a medium-sized market, Zduriencik is the GM of a club that will spend a lot of money, and have done so quite a bit in the most recent past.
It will be tempting for Jack and company to go out, even as early as this season, and spend big money on certain star players to get better quickly. Obviously this is not something the ballclub should be doing right away, though there are a few signings that might make sense, due to their potential affect on future seasons, more than 2009.
While C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, A.J. Burnett and Manny Ramirez are not among those wise inquiries, neither are Rafael Furcal and Orlando Hudson, both on the wrong side of 30 and expecting four and five-year contracts for double-digit salaries.
He's drafted well, but has been handed high draft picks consistently, as well as extra picks as the small-market Milwaukee Brewers let free agent after free agent walk away.
But he's made his share of early round mistakes, too, i.e., Mark Rogers, Dave Krynzel, Mike Jones and Josh Murray, but has also made some strong later-round choices as well, such as 11th rounder Corey Hart, 26th rounder Manny Parra, 40th rounder Hunter Pence and 5th rounder Angel Salome.
I don't think Zduriencik is any better at drafting and scouting amateur talent than was Bob Fontaine, who didn't have the autonomy Jack had in Milwaukee...
In the end, it's my opinion that Zduriencik could end up a good hire, a bad hire or a so-so hire, depending on how he and his sidekicks approach the rebuilding process and how they handle the free agent market.
As of today, we should just be excited that the organization, including Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong, has begun a new era. One that includes decisions being made by baseball people, which bodes very well for the future of both the M's as a franchise and Zduriencik himself.
Not to mention that the Seattle Mariners farm system is going to get really good, really fast. And you all know how fun that makes things around here.
Welcome to Seattle, Jack Zduriencik.
captain-jack
Comments
The following 14 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: acqb1424 on 11-19-2008 15:33:21 Jason, why do you think the M's went with Zduriencik over LaCava? |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-19-2008 16:19:27 I think Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong wanted to do whatever they possibly could to piss off Jason A. Churchill, knowing how great it would have been for him and his Web site if LaCava had been chosen. Actually, I just think they were sold on Jack the talent evaluator and believe that's the most important part of rebuilding. And really, that's fine. The ownership group as a whole, Lincoln and Armstrong actually deserve a lot of credit for going about things the way they have. My personal preferences aside, they've done this all correctly. |
| 3. By: littlelinny6 on 11-19-2008 17:04:19 Jason, Now that the M's have a new GM and new manager in place. What is the first item of business to help the ML club in 2009?? I was thinking something that needs immediate attention is defense, specifically outfield defense. Shouldn't the M's be stockpiling good outfield defense with speed and gap power?? Who can they get from minor league free agency or trade?? With the likes of Silva pitching for 3 more years the M's better get much improved defensively in spacious Safeco. The M's to me are like the Titanic and if you fill one hole another pops up. I know 1B, LF, CF, SS, 2B defense, and C defense can all use improvement but that is not possible in one offseason. What would be your first move? |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-19-2008 17:51:25 They need to get better in every single area of the game. Defense, everywhere except wherever Ichiro is playing and third base, starting pitching still needs to be solidified (not a priority right now, however), the bullpen may be awful in 2009, and even worse if the M's trade Putz... they don't run the bases well, or aggressively, there isn't much team speed, they don get on base, there isn't much power at all. The Mariners need everything. Target hitters and starting pitchers first, and at the top of the priority list should be catcher, shortstop, second base and center field - right up the middle. |
| 5. By: stickball on 11-19-2008 17:58:54 Do the rosters need to be set for the Rule V draft by tomorrow? I think they should protect Redman, Baldwin, and Navarro. The Mariners should only protect 39. They will be picking second so they should be able to get someone better than the 25th man on their roster. Who do you think that they should protect? |
| 6. By: Slack on 11-19-2008 18:38:25 Jason, Why would those first round picks that Jack made (like Mark Rogers) be considered mistakes? I know they didn't pan out so I don't question that at all. It just seems to me that any draft pick may not reach their potential for whatever reason. We all loved the Aumont pick in '07 but he may not reach his potential either. Were their any red flags that those players exhibited that should have caused them to be passed over in favor of other talents? I know I would have drafted Homer Bailey instead of Rogers in '04. |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-19-2008 18:41:44 It really depends on what their plans are for the offseason. if they plan on bringing in a certain amount of players from outside the org, for example a first baseman, they'll have to handle the 40-man roster accordingly. They just re-signed Redman, so I assume they have thought through their position on him, and will either add him or had a pre-contract agreement on the Rule 5. Getting chosen is a good thing for someone like Redman, but I'd go ahead and put him on the 40-man. I wouldn't worry about Navarro and Baldwin. They are a dime a dozen. If the M's need to find room on the 40-man roster, Bryan LaHair, Luyis Munoz, Tracy Thorpe, Sean White and Jamie Burke are all easy to live without, and you could easily see trades or waivers with Jeremy Reed, Jarrod Washburn, and even some bigger names in more lucrative deals, such as Rob Johnson, the two middle infielders, one or more of the middle relievers such as Sean Green (selling high on him) or Roy Corcoran. I don't think 40-man space is a problem whatsoever, not now nor in the near future. Lots of flexibility without fear of losing an impact player. |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-19-2008 18:45:52 Slack, When you judge a draft in hindsight, you have to use all the information available. I wasn't ripping Jack for any of those moves, like we all did the Morrow-Lincecum thing, because at the time none of them were considered blunders. But the fact is, those guys did not pan out. Rogers is the one where Jack should be given a bit of a break. Pitchers are dangerous picks, and Rogers got hurt and couldn't pitch because of it. Otherwise he was a TOR, and showed that potential early on. But Krynzel, Murray, et al, those weren't good picks. Thing is, that's about par for every club in baseball, if not worse. My point was that I don't think Jack was super great in the draft, and that his high picks and extra picks allowed them to get the better talents in rounds 1 and 2 and take some chances when they had comp picks. Most clubs don't have that luxury in the draft, and certainly not Seattle, not in recent history. |
| 9. By: Edman on 11-19-2008 21:34:07 There's been one thing JZ has done that I think sets him apart from Bill Bavasi.....he has a plan. By appearance, he isn't afraid to stick his head out and make what he believes is the best decision for the overall future of the Mariners. Bavasi may have had a plan, but it wasn't apparent to anyone, what the primary direction of the franchise should be. Jack seemed to have a focus and seems to keep on target. I agree, that for this point in time, he's the right man. Being able to filter through the talent, is a critical need. The other skills can grow with him. You can teach an executive to become a scout effectively. But, a good scout is more likely to be able to grow his executive skills. |
| 10. By: Edman on 11-19-2008 21:36:03 Oops....can't teach and executive to become a scout. |
| 11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-19-2008 23:16:04 That's a good point, Edman, and I agree. |
| 12. By: Jay Yencich on 11-20-2008 16:56:34 Supplemental picks certainly help, and in that respect I think that Zduriencik left the Brew Crew in good hands, with an incredible seven picks in the first three rounds of the '08 draft. However, if you go from 2000 to 2007, they only had twenty-one picks, losing a second rounder in '07, '05, and 2000, while gaining none through the arbitration process. They were picking high, but I don't want to undersell Zduriencik's efforts. Even with the pitching mistakes in the first round, he still helped build a strong farm system, with hardly any help from the international front. |
| 13. By: slamcactus on 11-21-2008 17:00:28 What do you think about the Hunder demotion, Jason? The player development side of the organization seems to have been a total mess for the past few years, with almost nobody in the system besides Valbuena learning any semblance of plate discipline. Did Z believe Hunter was part of that problem? If so, was he right? |
| 14. By: slamcactus on 11-21-2008 17:03:51 Also, any chance Z gets rid of Patrick Guerrero in the Dominican? I know he was a Gillick guy (and by extension an Engle guy), but he doesn't have a very good reputation down there among buscons and players, and virtually every good prospect we've signed out of the DR has been Engle's call. |
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