Prospect Insider - Countdown to Peoria: 17 days

Countdown to Peoria: 17 days

By Adam H. Wong

By 01-25-2012

Jason's take on what's next for the Mariners

There are 17 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 12 - the rest of the squad will report no later than February 17 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

The M's first spring game is against the Oakland A's on March 2 in
Phoenix, with their first home game the following day also against the
A's.

Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though
these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up
for camp.

In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as
the club heads closer to the 2012 season; lending you all anything you
might need to get yourself ready.

Prince in Detroit
The speculation on where Prince Fielder would land was laid to rest on Tuesday, as a nine-year, $214 million contract from the Detroit Tigers was reportedly accepted by the first baseman. It's the day after, and I still wonder: has this sunken in? It was almost exactly like the Arte Moreno, where he snuck in and offered a giant sum of money to Albert Pujols to earn his services. Fielder signed with no indication that Detroit was in the running at all. I wouldn't say it was a surprise move. All big-ticket Scott Boras signings seem to come to fruition at the last possible moment. Boras goes straight to the ownership and, viola!, fourth biggest contract in major league history.

And I'm still scratching my head over it.

Miguel Cabrera is owed $86 million through 2015, so signing Fielder creates a sort of logjam at first base until Cabrera's contract is over. It was reported that Cabrera was told to be ready to play third base, but there's no way that Cabrera will be able to field that position adequately. His quick-twitch skills have diminished since his time with the Marlins, so third base is pretty much out of the question. If Detroit does move Cabrera to third, their defense becomes the worst defense at the corner infield positions in at least the American League, maybe even the majors. It can be assumed that the duo will split time at first base and DH, but with reports stating that Fielders wants to be the everyday first baseman, things might get complicated in the Motor City.

The lineup
We can expect an Manny/Ortiz like dynamic with the addition of Fielder to the Tigers' lineup. Other than handedness, Cabrera and Fielder and surprising similar players.

Players who are entering the prime of their careers.

Since 2007, their strikeout rate has been slowly decreasing, while their walk rate has been steadily increasing. Plate discipline is key, and neither Cabrera or Fielder project to become a three true outcome player in the near future.

Fielder changes the dynamic of the Tigers' lineup. Although Albert Pujols may be the best pure hitter right now, there are still question marks with the lineup around him. I say this acquisition makes Detroit a lock to win the AL Central.

What now?
Now that the Mariners are out of the Fielder sweepstakes (thankfully), we can almost say with complete certainity that the Mariners have their 1B/DH combo in Justin Smoak, Mike Carp and Jesus Montero. Although the Seattle brass has said that Montero will get every opportunity to catch, he doesn't project well at all behind the plate, so it's only a matter of time before that experiment ends.

Mariners' fans should be relieved that the franchise didn't have to shell out $214 million over nine years. The Fielder contract faces the same grim reality that the Pujols contract presents. If either player can produce above league average for the last three years of the deals, it works out for the club. But paying $20 million-plus for a DH in the twilight years of these contracts is a big waste of payroll. Seattle has freed itself from such a possibility.

David Ortiz, the best contemporary pure-DH, made about $13 million each year over the last three years. As Jason pointed out yesterday, the Mariners need to stay the course. The franchise isn't yet in a position to spend like Boston or Texas. They will be eventually, and it works out for the best that Prince was out of their price range.

Around the league

Brandon Morrow signed a three-year, $21 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays, avoid arbitration. His K/9 remained about the same since 2010, but he is walking less batters, so look for a breakout season in 2012.

The San Francisco Giants and Tim Lincecum agreed to a two-year, $40.5 million dollar contract.

Tony La Russa will manage the NL All Stars?? It'll be interesting to see the interaction, if any, between him and Pujols.

Russell Martin and the Yankees agreed to a one-year, $7.5 million contract, avoid arbitration. On other news, New York traded their best hitting prospect to the Seattle Mariners.

Chris Crawford has the next Countdown piece primed and ready for your reading enjoyment.

Adam H. Wong can be reached via email at wong@prospectinsider.com. Follow him on Twitter here.

countdown-to-peoria:-17-days

Comments
The following 12 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: maqman on 01-25-2012 13:26:52
The M's dodged a bullet (more like a bomb) on Fielder. Iliych has to sell a lot of pizzas to pay for that contract. Given that he's 82 years old I can see his motivation to win now. I know that there is a lot of supposition around the blogs that the M's have some millions left in their (never confirmed) budget. A pitcher seems the most logical target but I'm wondering if they might just go for one of the two Cuban outfielders (Cespedes and Soler) and pitchers (righty Armando Rivero and lefty Gerardo Concepcion) about to be available. They are limited on what they can spend on domestic draft choices and international free agents but I believe that Cubans are not covered by any bonus restrictions at present. It would be a means of accumulating extra talent.

2. By: StandinPat on 01-25-2012 13:54:13
"Although the Seattle brass has said that Montero will get every opportunity to catch, he doesn't project well at all behind the plate, so it's only a matter of time before that experiment ends."

Up to this point I had firmly believed in putting a premium on glove work up the middle. I'd been all for getting a fantastic defensive catcher, and taking whatever you could get from their bat. But taking a look at the last couple of years, it's not like the Ms have been getting great defensive play behind the dish. Coupled with the trade for Montero and the obvious discussions about his defensive prowess, it got me thinking. If the positional difference between C and DH is 30 runs, then Montero can be really, really bad behind the plate and still be considerably more valuable as a C, not to mention keeping the DH spot open for another bat first player. Now there other obvious issues, like the wear and tear that catching takes on a players legs, which can have a huge impact on offensive output, but it does raise an interesting question. Do you just stick Montero behind the dish and deal with his inadequacies because it maximizes his value, and your offensive output, or do you move him to DH where his value is diminished and your need to find offense elsewhere is greatly increased.

3. By: Edman on 01-25-2012 13:57:50
I wouid like Prince in Seattle, but not at any cost. What separates Fielder from Pujols, is that Albert is a very good defender. It will be interesting to see what the Angels do with Trumbo and Morales.

As to what does Seattle so, I say stay the course. I've seen some push to go get Roy Oswalt or Edwin Jackson. Why? Let's find out about Noesi, Beavan, etc., before we worry about either of those guys. rjfrik suggested signing Oswalt, so we could turn him at the trading deadline. $8 million is a lot of money to spend for a trading piece. Not to mention that I'm sure Roy would rather go to a contender.

Staying the course doesn't mean they can't make a trade that makes sense. There will likely be some pretty good players who become available for teams trying to dump salary. That's what Jack should be looking for. Those kind of deals will probably start showing up around mid-season, when teams start falling out of the race. Seattle will have some payroll flexability with Ichiro and Figgins coming off the books soon. If the right player becomes available, then be a buyer looking toward the future.

I listened to Jack on KIRO's Hot Stove League. He mentioned that he's working on a couple of deals. Doesn't mean that anything is going to happen. But, he's certainly not done.

4. By: Edman on 01-25-2012 14:02:55
About Montero at catcher, the one thing that I like that Jack said is that they're not going to go by what has been said about his ability to catch. They are going to do their own evaluations and determina a path from there. I think that's the smart way to go. Look at him from a fresh perspective, and go from there.

He did say that some of Seattle's scouts think that he can play the position. I think everyone agrees that he probably won't be any more than average. But, if he can be similar to Piazza, that would work for me.

5. By: Adam H. Wong on 01-25-2012 18:26:09
StandinPat - Do the Mariners want the most "value" out of Montero, or do they want him to produce wins? Sure, in regards to WAR, the biggest swing of positional adjustment is from C to DH. You can't deny the presence of Ortiz or Matsui types. Although their technical "value" is lessened at DH, they still contribute greatly to the end goal of the game: wins.

If Montero can catch, great. I hope the experiment does work. But I'm not going to be upset if he is horrendous behind the plate because his presence in the lineup will make the Mariners just that much better.

6. By: aerichner on 01-26-2012 00:14:38
Edman, not sure what the downside is to signing Oswalt or Edwin Jackson. Ejax? Maybe the money/years but if Oswalt is willing to take a 1 year deal for 8 million (that's the rumor out there) then I dont have a problem paying him 10 million to sign.

You want talent on the team and he's a talented pitcher. Will he be here when we start winning consistently? No, probably not but I dont see the point in the owners pocketing the money. He can have a sick half a season with the Mariners at Safeco and we can get a good piece at the deadline.

Why it helps the Mariners: Good piece to deal at the deadline (arent we supposed to keep beefing up the system?)

Why it helps Oswalt: He could possibly put up better #s pitching in that big park and then end up with a contender with a chance at a ring.

Mutually beneficial.

Edwin Jackson might not be worth the years and money but as a Boras client, who knows if Boras decides to go the Beltre route and sign a 1 year deal at a park that fits hit pitcher? Beltre went to the Red Sox, put up numbers, got paid. Where would a pitcher want to go? Safeco fits so who knows. Makes sense to me and again, we can flip him at the deadline. Blake Beavan and Charlie Furbush can pitch in AAA half a season, no big deal.

7. By: gwangung on 01-26-2012 10:25:14
"Why it helps Oswalt: He could possibly put up better #s pitching in that big park and then end up with a contender with a chance at a ring. "

Um, why not spend the FULL season with a contender?

At his age, Seattle would be the last option, I think.

8. By: Edman on 01-26-2012 11:55:26
aerichner, exactly how does it help a team that is still growing to pay a pitcher to pitch in Seattle for one season, and at $8 million? I'd rather see someone who might help in the future. Millwood is in Seattle to add a veteran presence and must earn his way onto the Major League roster.

You want talent on the team that will be here when they're ready to compete. The roster as it's constructed right now would need the most incredible streak of luck in baseball history. Everyone would have to play at their peaks.

You gonna buy more tickets to see Oswalt pitch? If not, he's not worth spending $8 million on.

9. By: Edman on 01-26-2012 11:56:55
Also, never try to predict Boras. He'd be a fool not to get a three year contract for Jackson. He has a bad reputation and has been traded multiple times, and likely wouldn't want to go through it all again, next year.

10. By: StandinPat on 01-26-2012 12:20:29
@5 I honestly don't understand what you're getting at with your post

"Do the Mariners want the most "value" out of Montero, or do they want him to produce wins?"

Seeing how I was talking about value in terms of runs, and therefore wins, I'm not sure why you are trying to delineate the two.

Adam; "You can't deny the presence of Ortiz or Matsui types. Although their technical "value" is lessened at DH, they still contribute greatly to the end goal of the game: wins."

Me; "then Montero can be really, really bad behind the plate and still be considerably more valuable as a C, not to mention keeping the DH spot open for another bat first player"

You think maybe by bat first DH is was talking about a Ortiz or Matsui type?

As far as Oswalt goes, we can't use the logic, "but he has to want to come here" but then throw out "Um, why not spend the FULL season with a contender?" when we don't know if said contender wants him to come there. It's a two way street, and if Oswalt doesn't get the offer he wants from a contender, then he'll have to look elsewhere. If the Ms offered him $8-$10, that would be basically double what the Cardinals are rumored to have offered.

11. By: aerichner on 01-26-2012 20:25:26
"Boras told me today that Edwin Jackson could benefit w/ a one yr deal like Beltre,Lohse,,, did which could lead to a longer deal nxt yr" - Jim Bowden a day after I mentioned it here

"You want talent on the team that will be here when they're ready to compete." - Edman

If you wanna be hard headed about signing an Oswalt or Jackson instead of pocketing the money then that's cool man. When you sign one of the two to a 1 year deal with the purpose of moving them at the deadline then there is no downside to making the signing. Period. You have them for half a year and you turn them into an asset that will be here when we're ready to contend.

Getting Millwood on a minor league deal is great. Love it. Not all of our additions have to be with minor league deals to see who sticks. This isnt signing Carlos Silva to a 4 year deal with the false hope of contending. This is getting a talented pitcher for ONE year to flip him for a future chip. Both are good enough to get a good return from a contender midseason if they perform like their track record suggests. If they dont then you just burned 8 million bucks which doesnt hurt you, doesnt hurt me, and doesnt hurt the Mariners in 2013.

12. By: Adam H. Wong on 02-02-2012 19:21:09
@ #10

I was merely trying to bring to light the problem with perceived value that WAR offers, being that a C is inherently more valuable than a DH.

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