Prospect Insider - Countdown to Peoria: 18 days

Countdown to Peoria: 18 days

By Alex Carson

By 01-24-2012

Jason's latest on Prince Fielder and the rotation.

There are 18 days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 12 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 17 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

The M's first spring game is against the Oakland A's on March 2 in Phoenix, with their first home game the following day also against the A's.

Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2012 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

UPDATE:1:00 PM by Alex Carson -- Prince Fielder is not coming to Seattle. As reported by everyone, Fielder and the Detroit Tigers have agreed to a nine-year pact worth $214 million. No word yet on possible opt-outs, no-trades or vegetarian buffet clauses.

This was a complete stunner. The Tigers hadn't been linked to Fielder in any serious capacity all off-season. They are thought to have been one of two mystery teams that got involved late. Scott Boras, who could sell NBC bumper stickers to Rupert Murdoch, pulls another rabbit out of his hat.

At that price, we should be letting out a deep sigh of relief that the Mariners weren't the winners. Stay tuned as we'll surely have more analysis on the deal later.

UPDATE:1:29 PM by Alex Carson -- Ken Rosenthal confirms that Prince Fielder's deal does not include an opt-out clause.

Montero Trade Completed
The Mariners and Yankees completed their two-for-two trade today, and the pieces are what we thought they were. On the Mariners' side of the deal, the speculation about Montero's catching future can ramp up.

In GM Jack Zdurencik's three paragraph portion of the press release, he referred to Montero as an offensive talent, not a catcher. After some prodding during the media conference call, Zduriencik said Montero would get every opportunity to catch. Dots are surely being connected by lots of folks out there.

We'll see what happens in Peoria. I find it difficult to believe the club will immediately declare Montero a DH and take his catcher's gear away, but there are valid reasons to believe he won't stick at the position. It will be interesting to see how the club finds him ample opportunity to improve.

On another note, it's hard not to at least raise an eyebrow about this new Mariners lineup. Do you think Ichiro can bounce back a little bit? Do you believe Franklin Gutierrez's weight gain is a positive sign? Is Justin Smoak bouncing back from an injury-and-heartache filled season more than a pipe dream?

Not all of those things will happen. Maybe only one or two of them will. Perhaps all of them will, but someone else will take a step back. Who knows? We don't know, but this lineup has the potential to be something other than a disaster.

Jorge Posada Retires
The steady Yankees catcher will call it a career during a press conference today at Yankee Stadium. There aren't a lot of guys who hang out behind the dish as long as Posada did while providing ample value.

Posada ranks 15th all-time in fWAR amongst catchers. While his value was primarily tied to his bat, it's not like his defense took much away from it. He wasn't Mike Piazza with the stick, but he wasn't Mike Piazza with the glove, either. I'd do back flips to get that sort of production from that position for that long.

Is Posada a Hall of Famer? I don't think the counting stats or his overall value will get him the full support needed from BBWAA voters, but there's at least a shot he could build a following toward the end of his eligibility.

Smattering of Tidbits
- The always awesome Larry Stone points out a neat fact about a potential future Mariners battery
- Jerry Crasnick reports Omar Vizquel has been signed by the Blue Jays.
- When the Astros join the AL West in 2013, they might not be the Astros anymore.

Adam Wong is on deck. Come back tomorrow to catch his insights.

Follow Alex on Twitter: @AlexCarson

countdown-to-peoria:-18-days

Comments
The following 35 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: greentunic on 01-24-2012 01:04:54
"Not all of those things will happen. Maybe only one or two of them will. Perhaps all of them will, but..."

Haha, what?!

On a serious note, I'm excited to have Montero at C. This allows the lineup to stay real strong. Now we can have a catcher with home runs AND an OPB above .254!

Also, Jorge is nowhere near HOF material to me. He's like Jeff Kent or Jermaine Dye or Kenny Lofton. Real nice careers, but the HOF is the best of the best. Jorge was not even the best of the decent.

2. By: Edman on 01-24-2012 01:51:06
I'm excited as well to see Montero become a catcher. Baseball has had big catchers, with Ben Davis being a Mariner example. Delgado is similar, in that he was a catcher, but Carlos was much more bulky than Jesus. Perhaps that changes in a few years, but it doesn't necessarily have to work out that way.

Much of it is going to depend on Montero. If he has the desire to stay at catcher and work hard, then it's not beyond belief that he could stay at the position, at least for the first part of his career. If he can be a Piazza type catcher, I'd be good with it. People need to remember he's still raw. He'll be 22 when the season starts.

I've been watching the game for years. I've seen the Justin Leone's come in with highly heralded defensive skills, who never come close to meeting those expectations. I watched both Alex Liddi and Kyle Seager play third at least at a passable level, and didn't suck as some had predicted.

It's really going to come down to Jesus and the Mariners coaching staff. In listening to Jack tonight, he stated that they are going to have their coaches evaluate his abilities and go from there. I wasn't aware that John Stearns was their roving catching instructor. Between him and Roger Hansen, they should have a good idea if catching remains in his future.

3. By: DKulich44 on 01-24-2012 07:20:31
"Delgado is similar, in that he was a catcher, but Carlos was much more bulky than Jesus."

Ben Davis: 6'4", 195 lb.
Carlos Delgado: 6'3", 215 lb.
Jesus Montero: 6'3", 235 lb.

Which one is more bulky? Not saying Montero might not stick behind the plate, but he's way bigger than both of those guys. He's basically the size of Miguel Cabrera (6'4", 240 lb), who really can't play anywhere but 1B, and doesn't do that particuarly well either. Montero may also have a little room to grow.

4. By: jgstecker on 01-24-2012 07:50:00
The Mariners roster situation this spring should go a long way to showing us how committed the team is to Montero as a catcher.

If they carry Olivo, Jaso, and Montero it means they don't see Montero as a catcher in any legitimate sense, since it would be difficult to get him enough time behind the plate to develop much.

If they trade Olivo before the season, it would mean they're fully committed to him as an everyday catcher. Or else, Jaso really turned some heads and they felt comfortable with Montero as a backup.

If they trade/option Jaso, it would mean that they're still trying to develop Montero as a C, but keeping Olivo around as a "veteran" to stabilize the pitching staff.

I'd say sending Montero back to AAA to work on his defense more is out of the question.

5. By: Edman on 01-24-2012 09:08:21
#3, I stand corrected. I was thinking of someone else.

6. By: k0o56 on 01-24-2012 14:07:30
Ummmmm...what just happened?! Apparently Detroit for 9/214. I'm completely confused.

7. By: Boy9988 on 01-24-2012 14:12:00
Well I was right about the annual dollar amount, but not the years. And the Tigers? When did they show up?

8. By: mazono on 01-24-2012 14:13:00
Still dont understand this move by the tigers... Miggy to 3B? I glad 9 years 214 CrAZY

9. By: masonb on 01-24-2012 14:15:19
Well with Victor Martinez out all season they'll have Cabrera and Fielder rotating DH/1B, but I have no idea what they are going to do next year. Victor can't catch anymore. And wow, talk about a slow lineup.

10. By: Rudolf on 01-24-2012 14:27:00
He didn't go to the Rangers. :)

I don't know why but I like him in Detroit. They've got a pretty cool team over there. For now.

11. By: Mackie on 01-24-2012 14:31:39
Well, this is somewhat of a relief to this fan.

Now we can move on and worry about other things. 8-)

His bat would have looked great in the middle of our lineup, though.

12. By: Galway on 01-24-2012 14:51:21
WOW, congrats Boras and Fielder. I'm all for the Ms signing him but it is hard to fault a team for not going 9 years.

So now what are options to add another bat to this line up. Still possibilities internally and externally on pitching but this offensive doesn't just need bounce back years it needs a talent injection. Are a Jay Bruce type still a possible trade target or at this point the addition of more offense just isn't going to happen. I think Z's creativity will be tested.

13. By: nwmsfan on 01-24-2012 14:54:38
Fine with me, that contract is ridiculous no matter how many kids play nintendo. If I'm jack z why not just sign as many of the decent SP's that are left (Oswalt, Jackson), rack up their value and flip em in july a la washburn, fister, bedard etc. Its obvious getting a hitter to come here is hopeless so why not load up on arms with the leftover cash and deal from our strength?

Our pitching depth is a reason we can afford to take some risks as well, if paxton and hultzen need seasoning then the timing would work perfectly come july when we need to free up a couple spots. It's too bad we didn't get prince but I think we need to take advantage of the Seattle way to bring in bats..trade for them with surplus arms

14. By: rjfrik on 01-24-2012 14:58:42
Holy shit!! 9 years! 214 million!! Talk about overpaying big time.

Not sure what happens when VMart comes back next year. Miggy is going to have to start playing some third base I guess.

15. By: Ianyo on 01-24-2012 15:03:08
Thinking ahead to 2013...

What do you guys think we have in store for the outfield? Bring Ichiro back? Keep Gutierrez in center if he has another bad season at the plate?

Nobody has responded to my question about Seager in the outfield down the line.

16. By: Galway on 01-24-2012 15:07:56
I think its hard to know until you see if Guti gets back to being well Guti.
Ichiro you have think his time is limited and plan accordingly but what if he bounces back does that plan need to be a 2013 or 2014 plan.

I agree trading pitchers but what targets out there are worth it and actually possible.

17. By: Galway on 01-24-2012 15:08:37
9 years wow thats hurt my head

18. By: Mackie on 01-24-2012 15:20:08
The idea of a rotation of Felix, Jackson, Oswalt, Millwood and someone from among the rest (Vargas, Beavan, etc.) is fun to think about.

If Jackson was added, he would be more than just a placeholder. Millwood and Oswalt might be one-year types, but it might help ease some of the minor-leaguers into the ML rotation without so many bumps.

If the team is planning on Paxton, Walker, Hultzen and some others being better than Vargas and Beavan... and if the M's sign a couple of more guys for the rotation... could that make Vargas and Beavan and maybe guys like Furbush tradeable, and if so, what would they be worth on the trade market?

Or as mentioned earlier, signing a couple of veteran SPs and flipping at the trade deadline might be interesting.

However it goes, what can the team do to add some offense?

19. By: nwmsfan on 01-24-2012 15:24:28
In terms of FA targets for pitchers? I don't see why jack z doesn't go after jackson and oswalt, if he has already then fair enough but we have a pitchers park and cash so I'd think it'd be a great fit for a one year deal or even multiple for EJ.

As for young hitting targets you can always speculate and if there was ever anyone to find any possible scenario its trader jack.

20. By: DUWORKSON on 01-24-2012 15:30:17
@lanyo thats a very good question. Hopefully Wells recovers from his injury and puts up decent numbers. A slash line around .270 20HR 80RBI should secure an OF postion. Its asking a lot but Wells is very capable. However even if Wells secures an OF position I would still look to upgrade the OF position with a young potential super-star type player through the draft or trading for that player.

21. By: nwmsfan on 01-24-2012 15:41:35
Mackie, by building that strong rotation you can flip pitchers for hitters like Z did with pineda/montero. Mind you that was a rare deal given the talent involved but something along the line of the fister, bedard or washburn deal isn't out of the question. No there any aren't good hitters out of those yet, but if you keep targeting upside (F. Martinez, Trayvon) or hopefully good platoon guys (Wells) eventually you will hit on one.

I also thought if we brought EJ in it would be on a 2 year plus deal and wouldn't be a fit if he wasn't part of 2013 plans but if you think about it he could actually have MORE value in july even if he's just been ok. Safeco will bump his value so to other teams his deal that would have been signed on the cheap this winter will look pretty good. Maybe not but if we can't trade him he will still have value here.

After wanting Fielder for a while I feel better today thinking about all the other options....that don't cost 23M

22. By: Ianyo on 01-24-2012 15:45:43
I have confidence in Wells but if Ichiro is gone, I worry about the position Wells isn't playing. Say Gutierrez recovers and hits gives us decent production. Do we go with an outfield of Wells, Guti and Robinson?

23. By: valencia on 01-24-2012 15:48:00
Edwin Jackson is asking for 5/60. 2 years is a pipe dream with Boras as his agent. Worst he does is 4 years, and that's way too long for a pitcher at this point of our win curve.

Seager will never hit enough to be a corner OF. Remember 2B = 3B = CF. As long as it's one of those positions his bat will work.

Oswalt is going to sign with a contender if he can. Boston is chasing him hard, there's no way we get him.

24. By: rjfrik on 01-24-2012 16:05:11
The smart move would be to sign Oswalt to a one year deal even if we have to overpay. We flip him to a contender at the deadline and he is a placeholder for Hultzen. When Oswalt is flipped you bring up the kid. That would be my.number one plan as of right now if I'm the GM

25. By: gwangung on 01-24-2012 16:55:42
#24:
Well, I kinda think you need Oswalt's cooperation for this. From HIS point of view, I'd only review offers from contenders and potential contenders if all I could get was a one year deal.

26. By: rotoenquire on 01-24-2012 18:52:02
As people have said Fielder will go with the Money and that WAS NOT Seattle. We have talked about the M's payroll and a few people did some research. That kinda money even in a smaller amount of years was not there.

I am still thinking 2013 F/A class is where JZ will make his splash. On guys who have talent tools and are young and a LOT cheaper than Fielder.

A revamp of the OF is the most natural place to look. Granted Guity has 2 years left I think if he does well he will be traded. Same with Ryan who is under control and cheap and could fetch a nice piece to the puzzle. League and Vargas could also be dealt. I think JZ would more likely like to sign Vargas to a longer deal. Given the pitching talent we have. Most of the resent signings of Millwood and Perez is to keep Hultzen and Paxton down one more year. And if and I mean IF Perez has figured out his head and returns to his promising form that could be a real get.

#1 Felix
#2 Iwakuma
#3 Vargas
#4/5 Millwood/Noesi/Perez

Beaven and Furbush to fill in as needed. League could still be dealt before the start of regular season as teams figure out there bullpen and Cordero finally signs. Whomever may not win on Cordero could be looking to trade for a League. The Reds and Angels among the teams who could be a trade possibility.

Frazier 3B/1B and Fransisco 3B in a trade for League from the Reds.

OR

Walden RP and Richards SP from the Angels for League.

I am just glad that the Fielder thing is done finally.

27. By: Ianyo on 01-24-2012 19:07:50
"I am still thinking 2013 F/A class is where JZ will make his splash. On guys who have talent tools and are young and a LOT cheaper than Fielder."

What players are you thinking we can bring in to make an impact? There are a few good players, but how many are actually a fit with this club at this point?

There are a ton of pitchers I'd love to see in Seattle but I just can't see much in terms of offense where we need it.

28. By: masonb on 01-24-2012 19:10:10
roto,

Both of those trades aren't happening. The Reds signed Madson to close this year. They aren't trading their future 3B and a potential big league bench player for a year of League when they already have a closer.

And why would the Angels trade a young cost-controlled closer in Walden, plus a potential middle of the rotation starter for League? I could see that kind of return at the deadline, but not now.

29. By: Galway on 01-24-2012 19:16:41
Zero chance Perez works it out. One of the biggest head cases of an athelete.

I disagree about the money. As a business the Mariners have been very well runned for the past decade and are very healthy financially. Its not the money I think it comes down to years and 10 would have been needed to top the tigers. The M's payroll situation relative cash flow is actually healthy and they have the ability financially, but it doesn't make it wise for a decade commitment even if funds are available.

30. By: rotoenquire on 01-24-2012 19:29:42
Cordero is with the Blue Jays I guess now. Angels are looking for an Established closer. League fits that mold and at a decent price. Forgot about the Reds signing Madsen.

Be like a League, prospect/bullpen guy for Walden and Richards. Why would they pay that? Depth they have pitching depth and have no spot for Richards in the near future. Sound familiar? The Angels other major prospects are at 1B we have that in bushels and middle infield we have that in bushels.

O's are in need of a closer and maybe the Dodgers. they have 2 young talented guys as well. But, most teams like that proven guy.

31. By: docsmith on 01-24-2012 19:33:28
While we could use salaries that will come off the books in 2013 and 2014 to make a "splash." I think we also need to consider that our payroll may shrink a little until it is time to pay Ackley, Seager, Hultzen, etc, the big bucks. J.Z. doesn't seem to like to throw money at free agents (I don't blame him) and the one time he really did it turned out to be a bust (Mr. Figgins). Once burned...

I am not saying spending big on a FA won't happen....but it doesn't seem to be J.Z.'s MO.

32. By: valencia on 01-24-2012 21:16:07
League is as established as Walden. 1 season of closing. Except League has 1 year left before FA, Walden has 5 and he's dirt cheap for 2 more years. There's no reason Angels trade Walden PLUS stuff for League.

33. By: Jazz00 on 01-24-2012 21:19:54
Detroit has completely lost their mind. 214 million!! It would have been nice to have the Prince but I'm glad the Mariners passed if that is what it would have taken. 214 million would have hamstrung us and I also feel that he will not produce worth squat after the 5 or 6 year mark. I have to agree with some of the postings that trading from our strength of pitching and developing our players from the farm seems to be our lot. I can live with it but it would be nice to get a quality free agent once and a while.

34. By: Rudolf on 01-24-2012 23:01:39
2013 Free Agents:

C- Molina, Montero
3B- Reynolds, M. Izturis, (potentially Wright)
OF- Victorino, B.J. Upton, Ethier, Hamilton, Young, Bourn, Cabrera, Swisher
SP- Cain, Greinke, Hamels, Lewis, Liriano, Marcum, (and some others with options that will probably be picked up).

There's your 2013 class, as of now. Some will sign extensions.

Now we might snag some nice complimentary pieces. What we probably won't get is a difference maker on offense.

Best case is we splurge on Zack Greinke and someone like Victorino or Ethier. It might make sense to spend the budget on pitching (Greinke) and trade someone like Paxton for the bat(s) we need.

Free Agency kinda sucks right now.

35. By: on 01-25-2012 16:55:02
The smart move would be to sign Oswalt to a one year deal even if we have to overpay. We flip him to a contender at the deadline and he is a placeholder for Hultzen. When Oswalt is flipped you bring up the kid. That would be my.number one plan as of right now if I'm the GM

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