| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 12-19-2008 |
This is your chance - your only chance here at PI - to create your roster, your realistic 2009 Seattle Mariners roster.
Start with the current 40-man, make trades, sign free agents, assign players different roles and show your final 25-man roster.
But the key is, you MUST explain your work. If you make a trade, you must explain why each team benefits from the trade IN DETAIL. "Because he's cheaper," or "Because they need a shortstop," is not an explanation.
You must explain in detail your free agent signings, including the contracts length and total money - plus any options - role changes, etc.
Any roster submitted without adequate explanations will have their entire post deleted. So don't waste your time, do the work.
In the end, your post should result in a starting lineup, bench, rotation and bullpen, like the following.
Lineup
1. Ichiro, RF
2. Lopez, 2B
3. Beltre, 3B
4. Branyan, 1B
5. Johjima, C/DH
6. Balentien, LF
7. Gutierrez, CF
8. Clement, DH/C
9. Betancourt, SS
Bench
1. Shelton, 1B versus LHP
2. Corona, reserve 2B, SS
3. Guzman, fourth OF
4. Johnson, backup C
Rotation
1. Hernandez, RH
2. Bedard, LH
3. Silva, RH
4. Morrow, RH
5. Washburn, LH
Bullpen
1. Heilman, CL
2. Lowe, RH Setup 7th-8th inning
3. Corcoran, RH Setup 7th-8th inning
4. Rowland-Smith, LH middle/long
5. Lugo, left-on-left
6. Vargas, left-on-left
7. Batista, RH middle/long
One more thing - you must keep your 25-man roster UNDER $120 million. Not at 120, UNDER 120. And state whether your roster reflects a rebuild, a reload or a win-now situation.
Have at it.
create-a-roster
Comments
The following 128 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Fireballer55 on 12-19-2008 14:14:13 How do you want us to submit it? Just in a post or email it to you? |
| 2. By: BrettJMiller on 12-19-2008 14:16:29 Fucking firefox. While clicking the Cots contract tab it somehowe re-loaded PI. I'll re-type my long-ass freakin' plan within the hour....ugh. |
| 3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-19-2008 14:20:33 Right here in the thread for all to see! |
| 4. By: BrettJMiller on 12-19-2008 14:42:25 Trade SP Brandon Morrow and OF Wladimir Balentien to the Atlanta Braves for SS Yunel Escobar This gives us a much-needed upgrade for Yuni. Escobar is capable of a .300/.360/.410 line and was a +21 defender last year so I feel safe assuming he'll be at least +10 next year. The Braves do this because they were willing to give up Yunel Escobar and more top prospects for Peavy who is an established superstar. In this case, they get a good pitcher under club control and a better option than Francouer, who is a total bust, in the outfield. In a thread at LL Jeff was mentioning that Morrow would probably be what it would take to get Escobar, since Escobar is so good. I think throwing in Wlad makes sure it gets done. Though I'll admit this is less plausible now than before with Furcal off the market. However, the Braves still seemed willing to include him for Peavy, so I think we can get this done. Throw in Yuni if they insist on getting a shortstop to fill the void in return. Alternate target with same pacakge: J.J. Hardy. Sign DH Adam Dunn to a 3-year, $35 million deal. I was totally against signing Dunn at the start of this offseason. But now, it seems like he's a fit. The M's don't have a lot of holes except for DH and SS. My previous trade fills the SS need. Dunn is a good bet for a .240/.375/.520, and we need that kind of offense in the lineup. I don't think Raul's contract sets the market for 1B/OF/DH types, I think the Phillies were just stupid. Speaking of stupid teams, I'm taking Dunn because I think the Cubs will stupidly give Bradley 3/35 to play the field. Bradley is a better target for me than Dunn, but Dunn is more likely to come to us, I think. With Burrell getting 2/22 offers, I can't see Dunn making much more. Sucks for Dunn, but this market isn't good for him. Sign SP Ben Sheets to a 3-year, $25 million contract with IP incentives that make it worth $30m This fills the void left by Brandon Morrow in the rotation. When healthy, Sheets is one of the top 10 SPs in baseball. And I bet you didn't know this, but since his epically good year in 2004, he's actually averaged 156.2 IP per season. Figure 160 IP of 3.50 tRA performance mixed with about a 4.75 tRA performance for the 60ish inning Sheets doesn't pitch, and that's still better than most #3 starters. He'll take this deal because it's likely the most guaranteed money he'll make. Trade SP Jarrod Washburn to Minnesota for anything. They wanted him last season, and if they still want him, we'll give them to him for cash considerations, or even pay a little bit of it on our side. Trade C Kenji Johjima to the Yankees for cash considerations The Yankees need catching with Posada being their only option. It's been said that Posada may not be able to handle catching anymore. And Kenji is a safe buy-low bet for the Yankees. His BABIP was .233 last year despite a career-high 21.1% LD rate. The past two years his LD rate was lower and his BABIPs were .292 and .291 respectively. Kenji is a good bet to get back to about a .740 OPS, and the Yankees can afford it. Throw in $4m instead of taking cash back if the Yankees insist. Trade SS Yuniesky Betancourt to the Royals for RP Carlos Rosa This assumes the Braves don't ask for Yuni in the Escobar deal. The name here is replaceable, but basically the idea is to trade him to a team that wants him (The Royals have been said to covet him for awhile) so they can use him to shift Mike Aviles to 2B. Seems like a solid dumping on our part. So, with my roster moves I present you with my Mariners opening day 2009 25-man roster: Lineup: 1. Ichiro RF ($16.1 m, deferred payments) +10 defense 2. Escobar SS ($425 K) +10 defense 3. Dunn DH ($11.6m) 4. Beltre 3B ($12m) +15 defense 5. Clement C ($425 K) -10 defense 6. Lopez 2B ($1.6m) +0 defense 7. Branyan 1B ($1.9m if he does well) +0 defense 8. Gutierrez CF ($425 K) +15 defense 9. Chavez LF ($2.05m) +10 defense Bench: Shelton 1B vs. LHP ($400 K) Johnson C ($400K) Corona IF ($400K) Hairston, Jr. ($1.5m) Rotation: 1. Felix RH ($1m) 2. Bedard LH ($9 in arb) 3. Sheets RH ($8.3m) 4. Rowland-Smith LH ($425 K) 5. Silva RH ($11m) (Heilman replaces Silva after we trade him at the deadline, or in the offseason. Even if we have to pay for a year of Silva's deal.) Bullpen: CL Heilman ($2m) SU Corcoran ($425 K) SU Lowe ($425 K) MR Lugo ($425 K, LOOGY) MR Batista ($9m) MR Huber/AAA guy ($425 K) LR Vargas ($425 K) TOTAL PAYROLL: $92,075,000 That's probably an 85-90 win team with upside to contend for the division and long-term potential. |
| 5. By: TumwaterMike on 12-19-2008 14:56:09 My projected roster: C-Clement, Johjima 1B-Lopez, Morse, Shelton, Branyan 2B-Lopez, Hairston SS-Betancourt, Corona 3b-Beltre OF-Ichiro, Gutierrez, Chavez, Freddy Guzman, Morse DH-Platoon between Branyan, Shelton, Morse, Lopez and Clement (so they all can get at bats) SP-Hernandez, Bedard, Morrow, Rowland-Smith, Silva Closer-Heilman Setup guys-Corcoran, Lugo Middle Relief: Jimenez, Lowe Long Relief: Batista Justification: First I would trade Washburn to anybody for prospects. Next Mike Morse deserves a shot on the roster and if the M's aren't going to give it to him then they need to trade him and give him a chance elsewhere. I would leave Balentein down in Tacoma and let him work on hitting off-spead stuff with a possible call-up later. I would bring Freddy Guzman on (whom the M's just signed). We lack power so we need as much speed as we can get. If we can turn singles into doubles and take extra bases on hits we can still generate runs. I would also sign Hairston as a FA and shore up the defense. |
| 6. By: TumwaterMike on 12-19-2008 15:14:39 My batting order would look like this: Vs-Right Handers RF-Ichiro 2B-Lopez 3B-Beltre DH-Branyan 1B-Shelton C-Clement CF-Gutierrez LF-Chavez SS-Betancourt Vs-Left Handers RF-Ichiro 2B-Hairston 3B-Beltre 1B-Lopez DH-Morse C-Johjima CF-Gutierrez LF-Guzman SS-Betancourt |
| 7. By: jes1181 on 12-19-2008 15:32:37 First time poster here at Prospect Insider... Trade #1 - w/Twins C.Silva and A.Beltre and Cash Consideration for D.Young and M.Tolbert Why for Twins - Add best defensive 3B in the game, along with a good bat in the lineup. If Belte isn't signed long term, they recoup the prospects, as Beltre will be either an A or B type FA. Silva adds to their pitching depth and gives them a vetern on a young pitching staff, along with being a known quantity for them. Why for the Mariners - Beltre probably won't be resigned (or able to be resigned), and Washburn doesn't provide the type of value the M's need. Young adds a young OF in the mix that we can stick out in LF. He also has enough power to fit into the middle of the lineup. Tolbert, is a young defensive SS, and will push Benacourt (if still around), and could take his job. Trade #2 - w/Brewers J.Washburn and Y.Benacourt and Cash Considerations for B.Nelson and A.Escobar Why for the Brewers - Nelson is stuck behind Fielder and with CC and Sheets gone/likely gone, they need some help in the rotation. With the possible Yankee deal, the salary implications here aren't bad. Benacourtcan move to 2B, and send Weeks to CF, or could make either (Hardy/Weeks) of them available in another deal to bring another better pitcher and closer Why for the Mariners - Nelson fits in great at 1B, and Escobar can come in and start at 2B with great defense. This allows for Lopez to shift to 3B. Free Agent Signings A.Dunn - LF/DH - Why - Add some power, and specifically lefthanded. Could play some LF, on days when one wants Clement at DH and Johjima at C. W.Ohman - RP - Add a solid arm out of the bullpen Note - also sign Fields... and have him start in the minors and hopefully ready for a bullpen role after the trade deadline. Rotation 1 - Felix 2 - Bedard 3 - Heilman 4 - RRS 5 - Morrow Bullpen C - Ohman SU - Lowe SU - Corcoran MR - Lugo MR - Vargas LR - Batista Lineup 1 - Ichiro - RF 2 - Gutierrez - CF 3 - Dunn - DH 4 - Lopez - 3B 5 - Nelson - 1B 6 - Young - LF 7 - Johjima/Clement - C 8 - Escobar - 2B 9 - Tolbert - SS Bench C - Johnson C/1B/DH - Clement/Johjima 2B/SS - Corona OF - Chavez 1B/3B - Branyan This team may not win 85 games, but would definitely be a good step in rebuilding this team. |
| 8. By: Fireballer55 on 12-19-2008 15:39:45 Hey Jason, would your team include a trade of ichiro? What are the odds and what do you see happening now if anything? I know you did awhile ago but what about now after teams have made their moves. |
| 9. By: Blowgun7 on 12-19-2008 15:48:40 Just a couple of things, and feel free to criticize mine, but I dont think the Yankees would take 20 million on the Joh contract... They like Molina as the backup anyway. Also I saw someone suggest Washburn and Betancourt for Nelson and Escobar. That is another one Im not sure I get from the Brewers side. Nelson is indeed blocked but he still has some value to someone out there, and Escobar I think would bring back a better deal on his own than Wash and Yuni. You are asking Milkwaukee to take on about Jarrod's 10 million and w/e Yuni makes and your not taking any money back. Im interested to hear Jason's take on Matt Gamel though, cause when I put that deal together, i was thinking it maybe could work, then i started thinking that Gamel is one of the Top 2 prospects in their system, and would they give him up for Lopez, RRS, and Johnson.. probably not.. However, after reading around, the Brewers fans all think he's pretty overrated, bad on defense, and a lock to move to 1B or the corner OF, where he's totally blocked by other players.. So who knows, maybe it would work. Anyway a Lopez/RRS/Moore type deal would get him Jason? I like the lefty stick from Gamel, and although his value in that bat is because he's been play 3B.. Even if he does move on third, it's not like the M's have a LF or 1B that would be blocking him. I would think his handedness and the fact that he's blocked at 1B, LF, RF in Milkwaukee would make him more valuable to us then them |
| 10. By: NEOregonMarinersFan on 12-19-2008 15:51:34 The following involves trading Betancourt and signing two veteran FA shortstops to take his place in a platoon. The Mariners would also say goodbye to Washburn and Johjima in this scenario. Trade Yuniesky Betancourt to Kansas City for Billy Butler to use as DH against lefties, as he had .985 OPS against them last year. Use Branyan as DH against righties (career .826 OPS in that situation). This is a deal that has apparently been discussed during the last couple of months. Not sure how it benefits KC, but they were interested before, maybe they would bite on it now. Trade Jarrod Washburn and $2 million to Arizona for prospects. The Diamondbacks get their #4-#5 SP, the Mariners build up their farm system some more. Trade Kenji Johjima to whoever wants him for cash considerations. If Seattle pays $5 million of next year's salary and does that for the duration of the contract, the other team gets a decent catcher for a reasonable deal. The Mariners don't have to pay as much on it. Sign Ben Sheets for 2 years/$28 million. Strenghtens the rotation. Having been with the Brewers, Zduriencik will know whether or not this would be a good signing. If Sheets is healthy, why not. Waive Miguel Batista. This is the humane thing to do. It will hurt, but eat his contract and be done with it. Sign Adam Dunn for 3 years/$33 million. Adds power to the lineup. Despite his many Ks, he has a career OBP of .381. Who had that high an OBP for the Mariners last year? 8-) Sign Jerry Hairston, Jr. for 2 years/$6 million. He can play SS or CF, but could be used at SS. He bats RH and hits about the same against either LH or RH pitching. Hairston can also play OF, adding some depth to that area. Sign Aaron Miles for 2 years, $4 million. Sign him to share SS position with Hairston once in a while and to provide more veteran presence. Miles can also play 2B if the team wants to sit Lopez or DH him. He has a career .352 OBP against lefties. With Hairston manning SS, maybe the defense will be better... There should be more patience at the plate from him and Miles anyway, compared to Betancourt. Lineup: Ichiro RF ($16.1 m, deferred payments) Hairston SS ($3m) vs. LHP, Miles SS ($2m) vs. RHP Lopez 2B ($1.6m) Beltre 3B ($12m) Dunn 1B ($11m) Butler DH vs. LHP, Branyan DH vs. RHP (Butler $500K+, Branyan $1.9m ) Gutierrez CF ($500K) Clement C ($500K) Balentien LF($500K) vs. LHP, Chavez LF($1.8m) vs. RHP Rotation: Hernandez ($1m) Bedard ($7m) Sheets ($14m) Morrow (500K) Silva ($11m) (or Rowland-Smith) Bullpen : Heilman closer ($1.2m) Corcoran set-up ($500K) Lowe set-up ($500K) Rowland-Smith set-up ($500K) (or Silva) Jimenez long ($500K) Vargas long ($500K) Bench: Corona utility ($500K) Johnson C ($500K) I think this payroll comes in at $89.6 million + the $5 million paid to whoever takes Johjima and the $2 million to Arizona with Washburn = $96.6 million. Eat Batista's contract after he is cut, and it comes to... $105.6 million. Three platoons may not be ideal, but it might not be too bad, especially at SS. DH could work out pretty well with Butler and Branyan. The hitting is not great with this roster, but it is not horrifically bad. They might want to give Balentien full time in LF, but maybe they would still want to bat him in the bottom of the lineup if he struggles. I know, the roster doesnt include Lugo. Oh well. The two vets sharing time at SS keep the spot warm until someone from the minors is ready. If Sheets and Bedard are healthy, the rotation looks pretty good. The bullpen is weak, but if the team is doing well they might be able to do some trading in July. Bedard, Beltre, Heilman might all be candidates to be sent packing at the deadline, but it depends on how well the team is doing by then. My guess is that this roster would win 75-78 games, but that isn't based on any numbers, just a guess. There are probably a lot of things I am overlooking, and my asbestos suit is on, feel free to criticize. I do think this team would be fun to watch. |
| 11. By: Blowgun7 on 12-19-2008 16:21:17 I like it NE. Although I wonder how well Hairston can play SS. Has he played SS before? Also, I would prefer Milton Bradley (as indictated by my plan) to Dunn, but that would mean you'd have Butler/Branyan at 1B. Does Butler play an 1B? |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-19-2008 16:34:04 Hairston, according to three scouts I spoke to last week, aren't too keen on Hairston at short OR second. One said "I haven't seem him play infield in years," referring to how much outfield he's had to play because he's not good at 2B/SS and another said "he's just never learned how to play there. He gets no jumps, has no edge there. His instincts are bad." |
| 13. By: Blowgun7 on 12-19-2008 16:43:09 Okay, here is my revised plan to be competitive in 2008 and not bog us down with LT contracts. 1)Sign Milton Bradley (3 years, 39 million) 2)Sign Ben Sheets (2 years, 30 million) 3)Sign Jerry Hairston (2 years, 5 million) 4)Trade Jarrod Washburn, Jose Lopez, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and Adam Moore for Mike Cameron and Matt Gamel. The first three are straight forward. The trade would be working under the assumption that Milkwaukee would be looking to add Wash to their rotation that isnt looking to hot right now. Take his 10 million and give us Cameron's 10 million. The deal would send them Lopez to play at 2B, while allowing them to move Weekes to CF. Rowland-Smith gives me a versatile and cheap lefty who can go into the pen or into the back end of their rotation. And Adam Moore gives them a strong catching prospect. Im working under the assumption that Gamel is blocked by Fielder, Braun, and Hart, and that their is a significant question about his ability to stick at 3B. He's more valuable to the M's cause his lefty bat, and the fact that if he moves off 3rd, we still have openings long term at 1B and LF. Lineup: RF:Ichiro (16.1m) 2b:Hairston (2.5m) DH:Bradley (13m) 3B:Beltre (12m) 1B:Branyan (1.9m) C:Clement (500k) LF:Cameron (10m) CF:Gutierrez (500k) SS:Betancourt (1.5m) Bench Morse (400k) Chavez (2.1m) Johjima (8m) Corona (400k) Rotation 1)Felix (1m) 2)Bedard (7m) 3)Sheets (15m) 4)Morrow (500k) 5)Silva (11m) Pen Long:Jimenez (425k) Middle:Batista (9m) Middle:Lugo (425k) LOOGY:Thomas (425k) Setup:Heilman (1.2m) Setup:Corcoran (425k) Closer:Lowe (425k) Total Payroll: 110,000,000 |
| 14. By: willis13 on 12-19-2008 18:40:08 Come on, willis13, no spamming. |
| 15. By: Mariners2001 on 12-19-2008 19:11:48 I think the Mariners are close enough to compete this year that they should act now with some quick and easy fixes. To me, their main needs are middle-infield defense, one high OBP power bat, and perhaps a finely-tuned power arm out of the pen. Obviously, the M's have a log-jam in the rotation and Washburn is the easy pick to be moved. Balentien and Lopez are expendable trade bait, since both are somewhat overrated talents. Beltre should be kept because 1) he can be an essential piece of a contending 2009 club and 2) he can be easily moved for prospects if the team fails to contend. Unless the Mariners are getting a stud SS or the high OBP power bat in return, there is little sense to trade Beltre now. So what's the plan? 1) Trade LHP Jarrod Washburn, IF Mike Morse and cash to Minnesota for RHP Boof Bonser and SS Matt Tolbert. WHY FOR MARINERS: Most importantly, this sheds some salary and clears room for Rowland-Smith to cheaply replace Washburn in the rotation. In the meantime, Bonser is a very talented arm that could potentially fill any needs either in the rotation or the bullpen. Though he's essentially a junkballer, he's one of the most underrated arms in the league and could prove an asset. Supposedly, the Twins offered him to the Mariners in July, so he'd likely be easy to acquire. Meanwhile, Tolbert could potentially play SS or 2B with good defense and a passable bat if Betancourt or Lopez are moved. WHY FOR THE TWINS: The Twins seem to be high on Washburn and he gives them a dependable left-handed arm in the rotation. Morse gives them added infield depth and a potential platoon option. 2) Sign Rocco Baldelli to a two year deal worth $6 million, with a third year $4 million option and $5 in performance incentives. WHY? Baldelli can ease his way back into the game in LF, sharing time with Chavez or possibly Balentien. At the very least, he'll provide great defense and at most he'll continue his development into a offensive asset. 3) Sign Milton Bradley to a three year deal worth $33 million, with a team option for a fourth year and $6 million in performance incentives. WHY? Apart from Texeira and Ramirez, Bradley is likely the best bat available on the market. If he can stay healthy and keep his attitude in check, this contract could be a steal. He's potentially a .400 wOBA threat and would instantly become Seattle's best bat. As a DH, his susceptibility to injury would be minimized. He could fill-in with solid defense in the outfield as well. 4) Trade OF Wladimir Balentien, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, LHP Ryan Feierabend and/or RHP Miguel Batista to the Kansas City Royals for 2B Alberto Callaspo and RHP Robinson Tejeda. WHY FOR MARINERS: M's get another quality middle infielder and power arm for either the pen or rotation. Callaspo can play either SS or 2B well and has above-average plate discipline. Tejeda is similar to Heilman and Bonser in that he has great stuff suited for any role. He could be closer, middle-relief or even in the rotation very easily. He took great strides in the bullpen in 2008 and would instantly become front-runner for the closing spot in 2009. He's a hard thrower who seems to be on the rise. WHY FOR THE ROYALS: If the Royals are interested in Batista, give him to them. He is a veteran who could fit into many roles for them. If they are hesistant, throw in Feierabend who would give them a left-handed starter that's already a better option for them than Horacio Ramirez. And he's just 22. The Royals have shown interest in Betancourt and could slide to 2B alongside Aviles. Balentien gives them a powerful platoon option for Dejesus or Teahen, with the potential to become another cheaper Jose Guillen later on. Lineup 1. Ichiro, RF 2. Lopez, 2B 3. Bradley, DH 4. Beltre, 3B 5. Branyan, 1B vs RHP, Shelton vs LHP 6. Baldelli, LF, with Chavez filling in 50% against RHP 7. Clement, C vs RHP, Johjima vs LHP 8. Gutierrez, CF 9. Callaspo/Tolbert, SS Bench 1. Shelton, 1B versus LHP 2. Corona, reserve IF 3. Chavez, fourth OF 4. Johjima, C versus LHP Rotation 1. Hernandez, RH 2. Bedard, LH 3. Silva, RH 4. Morrow, RH 5. Rowland-Smith, LH Bullpen 1. Tejeda or Heilman, CL (whoever is more promising in ST) 2. Tejeda or Heilman, RH Setup 7th-8th inning 3. Lowe, RH Setup 7th-8th inning 4. Bonser, RH middle/long 5. Corcoran, RH middle/long 6. Vargas, left-on-left 7. Lugo, LH left-on-left OVERALL: These moves would give the Mariners flexibility in the future, as well as shedding current dead weight or questionables like Washburn, Betancourt, Balentien, and possibly Batista. This team would be instantly-competitve (85 wins?) as well as promising for the future. The payroll would remain relatively stable with the swapping of Washburn & possibly Batista for Bradley & Baldelli. If any member of the rotation gets injured or underperforms, the Mariners would instantly have suitable fill-ins in Tejeda, Heilman or Bonser. The defense would be well above-average and the offense would be stronger than last year. If the team falls on its face, then almost every player is tradeable and a quick rebuild would be easy. |
| 16. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-19-2008 19:15:16 FWIW, my own personal assessment of Yunel Escobar: Fringe-average defender, not a plus, questionable bat. Despite being just 26 and 6-2 and 200 pounds, Escobar doesn't have a ton of projection remaining. He's an upgrade over Betancourt, in theory, but how does his offense (.766 OPS) translate to Safeco and the American League? Betancourt is also 26, 27 in January, has a career OPS of .705, and a park-adjusted .760 in 08 versus Escobar's .799. How many wins is Escobar worth over Betancourt, assuming each player repeats 2008? A couple max? You don't give up Morrow and Balentien for two or three wins, when you take at least that total in hits to the rotation. Re: Alcides Escobar I think Escobar is one of the most overrated prospects in baseball. So much that if I didn't know better, I would have thought he was property of the Yankees. A plus defender for sure, perhaps the second-best SS glove(DeJesus, LAD) in the minors, but his lack of power is worrisome, moreso than that of Elvis Andrus. Andrus has more projectable power, at least enough to reach the "gap power" status or better. I'm not convinced Alcides gets there consistently due to below-average pitch recognition. |
| 17. By: BrettJMiller on 12-19-2008 19:56:34 Jason: UZR had Escobar as a +6.5 defender/150 games last year, +/- had him at +21, and PMR at +5.7 RAA. Not to mention he ran a .366 OBP last year. He may not have much power but Escobar according to most places like LL, Fangraphs, etc. see him as 3.75 WAR player. He's basically 4 wins. Yuni is about 1 win. Assuming he never gets better and Safeco docks his numbers a bit, a .280/.350/.400 SS with +10 defense (if you assume +/-'s +21 won't be repeated again) he's a 3-4 win player in Safeco who is under club control another 5 years. You'd have to assume Wlad becomes a +0 glove, .820 OPS bat, and Morrow becomes a 3.50 tRA pitcher for Escobar to be worth less than the two of those guys. There's no bet Morrow becomes a superstar starter immediately. It still seems like the upside is greater for the Braves, but the risk is as well. The M's get a 4 WAR player for 5 years, the Braves get 2.5-6 WAR worth of players. The collapse potential is real for the players the Braves are getting. It's a trade that honestly could go down as genius or disastrous for the Braves, but the M's get a pretty sure thing in return. |
| 18. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-19-2008 20:30:12 Escobar is also the beneficiary of playing in the NL, but he's also likely to get bigger and stronger, which could aid his offense, but push him off shortstop. The Braves, even before Rafael Furcal was an option for them, have been thinking of sliding him over already, trading Johnson or moving him to the outfield or third base, and moving Chipper to first base. Even assuming your numbers somewhat repeat, he's a three-win improvement. You don't deal Morrow for that, not on this team, not in this situation. And if Escobar is a .760 OPS guy in the NL at Turner Field, how does he only drop 10 points in OPS at Safeco and in the AL? Unless he simply improved somewhat significantly, they'd drop quite a bit more than that. Maybe enough to make him two or two and half wins of improvement. This club is in no position to trade a 24-year-old arm like Morrow for Escobar. |
| 19. By: saltydog on 12-19-2008 20:46:15 I'm going with something simple. I keep everything as-is, but I sign Jason Giambi to DH. His bat is perfect for Safeco, his OBP is sorely needed, and in this buyer's market, he's likely to come at the right price. I'm not going to forecast his cost; I'm assuming we have enough free $$ to sign him for 1 yr + option, for whatever the appropriate market salary is. I don't foresee a ton of other teams going after him. I'm relying on the coaching staff to impress upon Betancourt and Lopez the importance of defense, and going defense first everywhere. My lineup: RF Ichiro 2B Lopez DH Giambi 3B Beltre 1B Branyan/Shelton C Clement/Johjima LF Chavez/Balentien CF Gutierrez SS Betancourt ... SP and RP same as what Jason wrote at the top. Adds no long term commitment, scores enough runs to win with pitching and defense. In the meantime, we don't sign Fields and use our surfeit of draft picks to reload. We might also deal Washburn and Bedard mid-season and get even more draft picks to restock. If we're competitive, great! If not, we added no long term commitment and are ready to inject new talent in 2010. |
| 20. By: DRWheelock on 12-19-2008 20:56:24 We need 2 more POWER LHBs in our lineup, and we also need to tighten up our defense up the middle in our SS/2B positions. We don't need anymore SPs for 2009, when we have 8 potential SPs currently. So my scenerio doesn't include adding more SP, but instead moving a little. Sign Orlando Hudson for an $8M/yr 3 yr contract. Improves our 2B defense greatly, while providing us a switch hitting 2B, and a #2 guy in our lineup. Trade Jarrod Washburn and Heilman to Brewers for JJ Hardy. The Brewers lose CC and Sheets & need a #3 SP and a Closer. Wolf is asking for a 3 yr $10/yr deal, so Washburn on a "shortterm" 1 yr contract, and avoiding the arbitration amount for JJ Hardy would be VERY enticing to them. Something that is making a little more sense though is a package deal to the Brewers that would include Lopez for 2B, and now I'm wondering if Z was discussing a Lopez/Washburn trade with the Brewers GM during the Winter meetings?! That could be interesting to see a package for Fielder, but for being a little more realistic I'll stick with the Washburn/Heilman trade for JJ. But there are great possibilities with a Brewers trade, and it's evident to me "something" is in the works. Stay tuned on this one! Kansas City "offered" Billy Butler in exchange for Betancourt last offseason, but Bavasi wouldn't pull the trigger. KC is still interested in finding a cheap SS, so I think Betancourt is still their man. Get it done Z, especially after the JJ Hardy trade I mentioned above! I would love to see Carp up in the big leagues this year, but with only 1/2 year in AAA, I really think he's going to need another 1-2 years in AAA for Seattle before he's ready. This makes LaHair expendable via trade. I also would run with Butler @ 1B 100% of the time for league minimum. He will do just fine between RHP and LHP for us for cheap. Sign Adam Dunn OR Abreu for 3 years/$33 million. Adds power to the lineup either way we go. Abreu adds speed with SBs, and a career 300 BA hitter though. I think these 2 players will go for the same contract and amount in this economy. Lineup: Ichiro RF ($18M) Orlando Hudson 2B ($8M) Beltre 3B ($12m) Dunn OR Abreu LF ($11m) ... I don't care which one JJ Hardy SS ($5M Arbitration Figure) Griffey DH ($4M) Butler 1B ($400K) Gutierrez CF ($500K) Johjima C ($8M) Rotation: Hernandez ($1m) Bedard ($7m) Morrow (400K) Silva ($11m) Rowland-Smith ($400k) Bullpen : Batista closer ($9m) Corcoran set-up ($500K) Lowe set-up ($500K) Jimenez long ($500K) Vargas long ($500K) Bench: Corona utility ($500K) Clement C ($400K) Chavez - LF ($1.8M)...late inning Defense Braynan $1.2M- 1B/LF/3B/DH Bench - Griffey ($3M) I think this payroll comes in at $104.9M, with 2 extra spots open on the 25-man roster to fill by our AAA prospects. With these moves Seattle is contending in 2009! |
| 21. By: DRWheelock on 12-19-2008 21:05:11 The only thing that could alter my proposed moves above are: I will go out on a limb and say there is NO WAY the articles today about Lopez moving to 1B holds any water. But what it is telling us is that the Z-man is working a trade on the backend that would include Lopez, and it's probably with the Brew-Crew since they are tired of Richie Weeks! Could a Trade of Washburn/Lopez/Heilman get Prince Fielder? If so, we could run with Orlando Hudson @ 2B and then keep Yuni at SS for now. Is it realistic to think that we could shed that much salary & pickup Prince Fielder? The PROS for the Brewers? The are seriously looking and in need of a #3 SP, a Closer, and a decent 2B with pop. Lopez is hands down better than Richie Weeks! |
| 22. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-19-2008 21:05:55 Not sure why Milwaukee would deal Hardy for Washburn and Heilman. Yikes. |
| 23. By: Blowgun7 on 12-19-2008 21:26:29 I dont think we're getting Fielder for Wash/Lopez/Heilman.. And we're definately not getting Hardy for Wash/Heilman Jason, eliminating my Washburn for Cameron swap.. Could Gamel be had for Lopez/RRS/Moore? Or something like that? |
| 24. By: DRWheelock on 12-19-2008 21:28:56 There's a number of teams that would take Lopez via trade. So a Orlando Hudson signing looks pretty appetizing! |
| 25. By: MMjohns195 on 12-19-2008 21:36:32 Projected Roster Lineup. 1. Guitierrez CF 2. Ichiro LF 3. Beltre 3B 4. Griffey Jr DH 5. Lopez 2B 6. Branyan 1B 7. Balentien RF 8. Clement C 9. Betancourt SS Bench UT Morse, RH OF, Baldelli C, Johnson UT, Corona Rotation 1. Felix, RH 2. Bedard, LH 3. Silva, RH 4.RRS,LH 5. Morrow, RH Bullpen CL. Batista, RH SU. Lowe, RH SU. Corcoran, RH LR Cabrera, RH LR Jimenez, LH LHS Lugo, LH LHS Vargas, LH Sign Ken Griffey to a 2yr $15m Contract Griffey fills the needed DH Role while actually bringing another hitter who can work a count. I'm counting on his power staying close or higher than his combined numbers last year ( .249/.343/424) I think his power returns after having the surgery so i'm thinking (.270/.370/.480) Sign OF Rocco Baldelli to a 2yr $5m Contract +Incentives I like Baldelli, Given his history I think this would be a reasonable contract, I think he could easily take over for Balentien. As I think Balentien will probably be benched after the first month. Sign RHP Daniel Cabrera to a 2yr $4m Contract Cabrera goes to the BP and probably ends up as the Top Setup guy or Closer should either Batista or Lowe struggle. Maybe he can harness that high heat for an inning and be dynamic in the late innings. Trade Jarrod Washburn to Minnesota for Prospect(s) Trade Kenji Johjima to Yankees for Cash/Prospects ($8m) To explain the Lineup: I like Guitierrez at the top, he may not be better leading off than Ichiro, but when he gets on with Ichiro behind him you have a better chance to be 1st and 3rd then you do with the two flipped. I'm torn between having Clement at 6 or 8. It would probably be best to have him at 6 so he's protected by the veteran hitters. I think having him that high in a lineup is unwise however. Everyone says LF at safeco is bigger and tougher than right, so lets see the defensive magician at work, and while I hate Ichiro i think he stays and is productive. My Lineup is indicitave of my prefrence for a nice RH/LH combo all down the lineup. I think Morse is a better option than Shelton and deserves a shot. Heilman never makes it out of camp. I'm a Seattle sports fan and while I should know better I give Lopez/Betancourt another year to see what they have. Let's see what a young combo of Clement/Johnson can do. There is not a ton of power in the line up. I think this is a pretty realistic approach although I don't believe they could ever trade Johjima simply because of the ownership. This is a bridge roster mostly, we get to see what we have in youngsters (WLAD/Clement/Johnson/Baldelli). Get a realistic sense of what to do with guys below them as well. The Griffey signing is sentimental, but also he would have been about the 3rd best hitter in our lineup last year. Batista closes and hopefully either Lowe or Cabrerra steals the job from him. I think this roster would be competitive while not hampering the future of the team. While only adding an additional 12m in salaries for '09. |
| 26. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-19-2008 21:42:38 Why are you fascinated with Gamel? He's a 1B/LF with a solid, but unspectacular bat. |
| 27. By: PositivePaul on 12-19-2008 22:51:08 Lineup: 1. RF -- Ichiro. Signed to ANOTHER contract extension immediately. Another 5 years, 100 million. Yeah, yeah, he'll be in his 40s at the end of the contract, but what the heck. He's a SUPERSTAR! 2. 1B -- Mike Morse. Given a 5-year, $30 million deal. He's MIKE MORSE that says enough. Best. First. Baseman. Ever. 3. CF -- Griffey. Signed to a 5-year, 100 million deal. All you haters can just go bye bye! The House that Griffey Built deserves to finally be his home! Forever! And Ever! 4. DH - Clay Bennett. Well he does know how to hit. He signs a MLB minimum contract because he's rollin' in enough dough and does feel a little bit guilty for stealing the Sonics. 5. 3B - Dallas McPherson. He's got the bat. He's got a glove. Trade details below. 6. C - Jason Varitek. Signed to, you got it - 5 years and $40 million, because the M's don't have enough catchers already. 'Bout dang time we got him back! 7. LF - Griffey. He's so awesome at CF that he can play LF, too. He also, thusly, gets to hit twice in the lineup. 8. 2B - Willie Bloomquist. He'll FINALLY get that starting job he SOOOO deserves. 9. SS - Top Cat from Mariner Central. Signed to a lifetime supply of catnip. RRREEEEEEeeeeeeeEEEEERRRRRRR!!! Starting Rotation: 1. Felix Hernandez. Even in my sham roster he still gets a spot. After all he IS overrated and will never amount to anything anyway, so... 2. Roger Clemens. Free Agent. Probably looking for a job to prove he can pitch still and clear his name. 3. Chan Ho Park. See trade below. 4. Miguel Batista. We signed him to start, he needs to start. 5. Carlos Silva. See Batista, Miguel. 6. Jarrod Washburn. Hey, when you have a rotation this good, why stop at 5 starters? CL: Heilman. He'll close and he'll like it, whether he likes it or not! Besides, there's probably a rule out there that you can't trade EVERYONE on your roster... RP: Jeff Nelson. He'll come out of retirement to come back to the M's. RP: Norm Charlton. See Nelson, Jeff. RP: Doug Fister. C'mon - with a name like Fister, you know he's ready! RP: Jamie Burke. He does need a job now, and why not? RP: Julio Mateo. He'd beat down the door to get a job again! Bench: C: Kenji. He's got a LOT left in his youthful legs. Corner IF: Matt Mangini. I think y'all are too busy looking at his girlfriends Pamela and Dolly WAAAAY too jealously! Quit looking at their busts and pay attention! OF: Griffey. Seriously. I said he built Safeco. He can play TWO OF spots, hit twice AND be on the bench. MILF: Betty Rubble. Whoopsie. Freudian Slip. Sorry. Middle IF: Joey Cora. Brings tears to my eyes already. Either that or Little O in case Joey wants to keep his coaching gig. Trades: SP Brandon Morrow, SP Erik Bedard, RP Austin Bibens-Dirkx, C Robbie Johnson, CF Gutz, and 2B Jose Lopez to FLA for the rights to Top Cat (they sign him to a MLB deal just before hand) and for 3B McPherson. 3B Adrian Beltre, RP Mark Lowe, RP Roy Corcoran and C Jeff Clement to the Phillies for HO. I can't believe they signed him right out from under us. RRS is optioned back to Tacoma because he needs to keep his blog going and there's no room for him in Seattle. As I learned from Jeff Sullivan at Lookout Landing, he's SO MUCH SEXIER when he's pissed off. Our Rule V guys are all sent back. WHAT WERE WE THINKING!!!! And the rest of the M's farm system is traded for Detroit's. |
| 28. By: KingFelix on 12-19-2008 23:50:48 I would take this team at a win now with the upside of giving Jack some time to add some young talent in the next two drafts. With some nice vetern bats to take the presure off the young talent so we can bring up some young talent year end and year out. First, sign Bradley to a 3 year 40 million dollar contract. Second, sign Giambi to a 2 year 20 million dollar contract. Third, sign Felix to a 4 year 40 million dollar contract extension. I would keep Washburn in the pen as a backup if Bedard is not ready to go a complete season since we cannot receive much for him anyways. 1. Ichiro RF 2. Lopez 2B 3. Bradley DH 4. Beltre 3B 5. Giambi 1B 6. Branyan LF 7. Guitierez CF 8. Clement C 9. Betancourt SS Bench UT Corona OF, Balentien C, Kenji UT, Morse Rotation 1. Felix, RH 2. Bedard, LH 3. Morrow, RH 4. RRS,LH 5. Silva, RH Bullpen CL. Heilman, RH SU. Lowe, RH SU. Corcoran, RH LR Washburn, LH LR Lugo, LH RHS Batista, RH LHS Vargas, LH |
| 29. By: Willmore on 12-20-2008 01:09:37 Jason, while I understand the benefit of this exercise, ie. it allows you in the future to shut everyone trying to post stupid trade/roster posts by aggregating them all here, I really would rather prefer to hear some of your suggestions for possible Mariners moves. Based on the current trading chips available, can you make a list of prospect/players in baseball that you feel would be most beneficial for the Mariners' present/future, with the caveat that Zdu. |
| 30. By: Willmore on 12-20-2008 01:10:08 * with the caveat that Zduriencik is making the calls. |
| 31. By: randallball on 12-20-2008 02:08:13 First off, I do believe that this team can get lucky in '09 and "win now" like it "won" in '07, but I also believe that the Angels just have us beat in talent now...and the A's and Rangers might be running away from us, too. I feel we are the 6th or 7th best team in the AL in a best case scenario with the current roster...i.e., out of the playoffs. So, with that in mind, here are my proposed moves in this RE-LOAD phase of Mariners baseball: TRADE: Adrian Beltre and cash to the Twins for prospects SP Carlos Gutierrez and CF Angel Morales. Straight "now for later" deal - the Twins get their bridge to Valencia (and likely a few comp picks once Beltre's contract is up) with the top defensive 3B in the league while shoring up their lineup with a much needed RH bat and the M's get a toolsy CF and a college tested arm. If they could work Washburn into the deal somehow that would be just fine, but I have no idea why the Twins would want him with the 5-man that they will have ready to go this April. Which brings me too... TRADE: Jarrod Washburn and cash to the Braves for RP Blaine Boyer. The Braves need another innings guy in the rotation behind Hudson and Jurrjens (and Smoltz?....and Glavine?). If Glavine does come back, he could be just the type of guy that could help Washburn regain (or should that just be "gain"?) his effectiveness by giving him some "old lefty" pointers. M's need to replenish the suddenly empty ML bullpen and Boyer is an average RH middle man that is an extra arm to the Braves. TRADE: Kenji Johjima, Miguel Batista, Wladimir Balentien and TONS OF CASH to the Astros for minor league RP Samuel Gervacio and minor league filler. This would likely be the hardest sell that Jack Z would have to pull off, but it really fits the Astros immediate needs fairly well (assuming Johjima returns to pre '08 form...a big assumption for sure). Johjima would be an insane improvement to their offense from the C position...even if he hits like he did 2nd half '08. Gotta lose someone of real value here to make it work, and that value is Balentien - he would immediately become the Astros 4th OF and likely throw up some real good power numbers in that park in the more fastball friendly NL. Bautista seems to be a better fit in the NL and the Astros are one of only a few teams that have the pockets and the current talent level and needs to make a salary dump deal like this work. SIGN: LF Rocco Baldelli. I am 100% on board the Rocco train. His health concerns aside (no small concern, but they still should take a back seat to his talent), this guy can play the game. OBP skills, enough of a defender still to play the cavernous Safeco LF more than adequately, and pop enough to fill out the lineup. Incentive-laden 2 year deal (2/$8m + incentives) that sets him back up for FA when he's 29 and can make that 1 good push for a big $ contract. SIGN: 3B Ty Wigginton. Recently let go again, he actually isn't as bad as his nomad career would lead you to believe. Solid OBP skills, solid contact and power, and passable defense. 2 years, $5m. SIGN: LHP Wil Ledezma. Need a better lefty in the pen, and Ledezma should fair better than young Justin Thomas this season and should come cheap. He isn't a strictly LH guy, either. 1 year, $700k. SIGN: Adam Du........nope. Griffey. Going back to the first thing I posted, this team is not winning the division - not in '09, not in '10 and likely will still be a year or two away from serious contention in '11. Dunn would cost too much for too long during a time where we aren't gonna be knocking down the Angels door. This is what the "fans" in Seattle want. Someone they know - someone they love. They love Ken Griffey, Jr. Hey, I love the guy, too - I just know he isn't taking us to the World Series. 1-year $12m + an option. Lineup (vs RHP) 1. L-Ichiro - RF 2. R-Lopez - 2B 3. L-Griffey - DH 4. R-Baldelli - LF 5. L-Branyan - 1B 6. R-Wigginton - 3B 7. L-Clement - C 8. R-Gutierrez - CF 9. R-Betancourt - SS Bench 1. L-Chavez - 4th OF 2. R-Morse - 1B/3B/OF/DH shots vs LHP 3. S-Corona - MIF 4. R-Johnson - backup C Rotation 1. RH - Hernandez 2. LH - Bedard 3. RH - Morrow 4. LH - Rowland-Smith 5. RH - Silva Bullpen 1. Heilman - CL 2. Lowe- RH Setup 3. Corcoran - RH Setup 4. Ledezma - LH Setup 5. Vargas - LOOGY 6. Boyer - RH 25th roster spot: AAA shuttle, as needed - Gervacio, Jimenez, Feierabend, Messenger, Thomas, Michael Saunders, Michael Wilson, Hulett, Tui.... SUMMARY: This RELOAD incorporates more low-risk, short-term signings (like Branyan) to round out the lineup for this season and next, and trades to acquire more talent in the minors to hopefully help keep the organization at or near the top beginning in a few years with the additions of Gutierrez, Morales and Gervacio. I have a feeling that once our crew of young OF Saunders/Wilson/Halman/Peguero are all a little more near ML ready we would be looking to move Balentien anyways, so although I love his power potential, I think dealing him now helps us tremendously if it means we can clear salary at the same time. We're adding ~$26m in salary with the FA, but clearing ~$50m with the '09 salaries of Beltre ($12m), Johjima ($8m), Washburn ($10.35), Bautista ($9m). We might well end up paying ~1/2 of their '09 contracts to get them out of here, but that still gets us in under the wire of $120m for '09. More deals during the season would be looked at to further the reloading efforts (Bedard, Lopez, Betancourt, Silva if he could bounce back to show value), and I don't think that the immediate future looks any less promising than if we were to not deal Beltre/Balentien. I think this team could challenge for 2nd in the AL West and if the pitching worked out PERFECTLY and the offense didn't miss ANY time with injury, they could push 90 wins and surprise. |
| 32. By: StandinPat on 12-20-2008 03:12:53 Paul, why our minors for detroit's? hopefully not on a talent basis....why not Arizona or Tampa or Boston or and the list could go on. |
| 33. By: malcontent1 on 12-20-2008 05:30:56 Looking to reload and hoping for a good luck year, I would trade Jarrod Washburn (+3 mil) and Jose Lopez to the Dodgers for Blake DeWitt. Dodgers do it because having Washburn gives them a fairly reliable pitcher at low cost and no commitment that allows James McDonald to garner more experience in AAA, while Jose Lopez is more likely to come close to replicating Jeff Kent's production next year than Blake DeWitt. The Mariners place DeWitt at 2nd, he was rated highly at 3rd last year according to +/-, PMR, and UZR, so he should be an asset defensively. I'm wagering that he continues to improve offensively as he's supposed to have excellent bat speed & control. He also provides a replacement at 3rd if Beltre doesn't resign. Sign Ken Griffey Jr. to a 5 mil contract with incentives of 1 mil each for 600 PA, .300 BA, 25 HR, and 30 homeruns, and an extra 500k for an all star appearance, with an 9 mil team option for next year. If he does all that, then you've probably got a .300/.390/.520 hitter for 9.5 mil, anything less and he's progressively cheaper. He plays about half the games at DH (Clement taking the other half), and 60-70 in left field (with Endy finishing those games) and rests against lefties often. My theory is that he's not as terrible a defender when he's DH or resting more than half the season. UZR/150 had him at -14.4 (in 250 innings) for the White Sox when he spent a decent amount of time as DH for them, even with the bad knee. I don't bother trying for Baldelli, because the Orioles, Yankees, Braves, and Nationals are all likely just as interested, and unless the guy (who lives in New Hampshire) has a burning desire to play in Seattle, it's not likely he's going to. I'd like to try sending Wladimir Balentien to the Rockies for Hector Gomez, since his value has to be pretty low after missing all of last season, though I don't know if that would be enough. Balentien could maximize his talent for hitting long balls in Mile High, and the Mariners could use some depth at SS. Lineup: Ichiro RF ($16m) Blake DeWitt 2B ($500k) Beltre 3B ($12m) Griffey LF/DH ($7-8m) I'm guessing he makes at least a couple of the incentives. Branyan/Shelton 1B ($2m) Clement DH/C ($500k) Gutierrez CF ($500k) Johjima C ($7.5m) Yuniesky Betancourt SS ($2m) Rotation: Hernandez ($2m) Bedard ($7m) Silva ($11m) Morrow (400k) Rowland-Smith ($400k) Bullpen : Heilman - Closer ($3m?) Lowe Set-up ($500k) Batista Middle($9m) Corcoran Middle ($500k) Lugo LOOGY($500k) Vargas Long ($500k) Thomas - Middle/Long($500k) Bench: Corona 2b/SS/3b($500k) Johnson C ($500k) Chavez - OF ($1.8m) Braynan/Shelton - 1B/3B/DH ($2m) I don't know what to do with Johjima, I don't see anyone accepting him with his contract the way it is right now. I think he has to play out the year, then maybe in the off season the Mariners can pick up some of his salary and move him, but for right now, I think he has to be on the team. Also make an attempt to extend Beltre for 3 years @ 13 mil + bonuses for Gold Gloves, All Star appearances, Silver Sluggers, and MVP awards. Attempt to sign Felix to something like 6 years-$60 mil. The team goes into an "If everything goes right" situation for 2009: If Griffey looks like 2007 or 2005 Griffey, if Beltre is healthy and continues to improve his offense and patience, if Franklin Gutierrez does basically the same thing, if everybody in the rotation improves from last year, if Aaron Heilman becomes JJ Putz 'redux', if Betancourt is decent at short again. But all that has already been said. Basically, the Mariners come out with an extra shortstop and 5 years of a theoretically better defender and left handed 2nd Baseman. Estimated Cost~$88 million, +3 Million to LA |
| 34. By: Trent on 12-20-2008 10:47:06 Re: 32 - That whooshing sound was the joke flying clean over your head. Re: Dunn and Hudson - I'm going to steal a line from Dwight from The Office: "Before I do something I ask my self if that is something an idiot would do. If the answer is yes, I would not do that thing." Ask yourselves why an organizaion like Arizona, (who is a fairly well run organization by all means and purposes), didn't even offer Dunn arbitration and never really had serious contrct talks with Hudson? Yes, they're tight on their budget, BUT, they didn't ever try to talk seriously with either FA. This team needs another power bat, yes, but Dunn needs to be avoided. At all costs. The guy shares almost an identical skill set to Richie Sexson, only with a better eye. The guy plays terrible defense and you don't pay $11-13 million for a DH. Bad idea, terrible idea, move on. I'm not exactly sure where the Hudson >>>>>>> Lopez thing came from. Hudson used to be a good defensive player, but his recent defensive metrics (I know all you Geoff Baker lovers will argue that defensive metrics are broken, they're not a good indicator, yada yada yada) show he hasn't been above a league average defender since he got to Arizona. In fact, Lopez is rated higher in measureable defensive metrics in the past three years (Hudson's AZ tenure). Orlando Hudson glove used to be stellar, it's not that good anymore (thanks injuries!) and he doesn't do anything with the bat that Lopez can't do. And you want to give him $10+ million a year? No thanks. |
| 35. By: dchurch85 on 12-20-2008 13:02:30 I heard the Jays are listening on offers for Vernon Wells. I think he would be ideal to bring to Seattle... Plays good D with a good bat and I think he would be a good fit here. What do you think it would take to bring him here? |
| 36. By: Dixoner22 on 12-20-2008 13:29:31 Lineup Ichiro Suzuki RF ($18,000,000) Jose Lopez 2B ($1,750,000) Adrian Beltre 3B ($13,400,000) Adam Dunn 1B ($10,000,000) Franklin Gutierrez CF ($500,000) Ken Griffey Jr. DH ($7,500,000) Jeff Clement C ($400,000) / Kenji Johjima C ($8,000,000) Endy Chaves LF ($1,800,000) / Wladimir Balentien ($400,000) Yuniesky Betancourt SS ($1,550,000) Bench Kenji Johjima C ($8,000,000) Wladimir Balentien OF ($400,000) Mike Morse UT ($400,000) Russell Branyan 3B/1B ($1,900,000) Rotation Felix Hernandez RH ($1,500,000) Erik Bedard LH ($8,000,000) Brandon Morrow RH ($400,000) Jarrod Washburn LH ($9,850,000) Carlos Silva RH ($12,000,000) Bullpen Chad Cordero CL ($2,000,000) Aaron Heilman RH SU ($1,200,000) Cesar Jimenez LH SU ($400,000) Roy Corcoran RH MD ($400,000) Jose Lugo LH MD ($400,000) Ryan Rowland-Smith LH LR ($400,000) Miguel Batista RH LR($9,000,000) Sign Adam Dunn to a three year $35,000,000 (1st Yr 10M, 2nd Yr 12M, 3rd Yr 13M). He has consistently hit 40+ Homers for the last five Seasons. His LH Bat will add needed Power. Sign Ken Griffey Jr. to a two year $15,000,000 (1st Yr 7.5M, 2nd Yr 7.5M) contract incentives based on plate appearances and power numbers up to $2.5M per season making the contract worth $20M. Not only will this add more LH Power, but fans want to see Griffey back in Seattle and he would put fans in the seats at Safeco. Sign Chad Cordero to a two year $5,000,000 with club option for third year (1st Yr 2M, 2nd Yr 3M, Club option $4,000,000 with $500,000 Buyout). Cordero went in for surgery early in the 2008 Season to repair a labrum tear. He expects to be ready to pitch by spring training but could take into the 09 season if not ready by spring. This hopefully being a low cost high reward signing. Team Projected Salary: $111,550,000 If Griffey meets statistics for Incentives: $114,050,000 |
| 37. By: FatBat on 12-20-2008 14:19:34 Well our Mngr. is talking about moving Lopez to First. So going along with that this is what I would do. Trade/ To Brewers Heilman,Lopez,Rob Johson and Jimenez Seattle Pince Fielder Heilman gives them a starter and Lopez replaces Weeks (sorry weeks isnt there man anymore) they get a catcher with great deffense and in there ball park great upside. and in my opinion a good situational pitcher. sign/ Orlando Hudson 3yrs 21Mil Trade/ To Astros Washburn and 3mil Seattle AA prospect, maybe someone not on there 40man sign/ Wil Ohman 2yrs 6mil Trade/ To Twins Betancourt,Wlad B., Mark Lowe Seattle Delmon Young Sign/ E. Gagne 1yr 3mil w/ 3mil insentives Starting line-up 1)Ichiro (RF) 2)Hudson (2B) 3)Young (LF) 4)Fielder (1B) 5)Beltre (3B) 6)Clement (DH) 7)Hulett (ss) 8)Johjima (C) 9)Gutierrez (CF) Pitchers 1)Felix 2)Bedard 3)Morrow 4)Roland-Smith 5)Silva Bench Bullpen 1)Corona 1)Batista 2)E. Chavez 2)Ohman 3)Morse 3)Corcoran 4)Branyan 4)Huber 5)Fierbend (long R.P.) 6)Gagne (Closer) If Bedard is healthy our rotation is solid! We need good young productive bats out there. This team here would be able to seriously contend in 09'. And that folks is what its all about. |
| 38. By: FatBat on 12-20-2008 14:34:19 Sorry my computer was acting up. so I sent before I was done. I think the Twins could use Betancourt at short.Wlad gives them a big bat off the bench with prospect availability in trade or to waite out Cuddyer's contract. Mark Lowe to there struggling bull pen. Guy's I like Hulett as our shortstop (this yr). His minor league numbers for on base % walks vs. strike outs and such. He reminds me of a Ryan freel or Brynes but in the in field. But ulimately I feel we need a face change to this club. one or two moves gives you the same tactic we have done for four yrs. and that hasnt worked out so good. Change the core and add Hudson, Young and Fielder. Dunn is a solid addition as well if you can't land Fielder. Dunn can get you 100 plus walks 40 hrs 100 RBI's |
| 39. By: Lailoken on 12-20-2008 17:46:54 1. Yuniesky Betancourt, Jarrod Washburn, Kenji Johjima, Ryan Feierabend, & 5 million in '09 to LAD for Chin-lung Hu, Juan Pierre, & Greg Miller 2. Juan Pierre, Wladimir Balentien, Rob Johnson, 9.5 million in 09, 8.5 million in 10, & 7 million in 11 to FLA for Sean West, Jose Ceda, Alfredo Amezaga, & Taylor Tankersley 3. Jose Lopez, Matt Tuiasosopo, Justin Thomas, Stephen Kahn, Nathan Adcock, Matt Mangini, & Carlos Peguero to BAL for Brian Roberts, Bob McCrory, & Marcus Moore 4. Brian Roberts, Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Gaby Hernandez, & Bryan Lahair to ChiC for Mike Fontenot, Felix Pie, Rich Hill, & Dumas Garcia 5. Carlos Silva, Kalian Sams, 3 million in 10, & 3 million in 11 to DET for Gary Sheffield & Dontrelle Willis 6. Tug Hulett, Johan Limonta, & Robert Rohrbaugh to TB for Justin Ruggiano & Wade Townsend 7. Cesar Jiminez, Mike Morse, & Stephen Richard to SD for Joe Thatcher & Matt Bush 8. Miguel Batista & 7 million to TOR for Brian Jeroloman 9. Future Considerations to KC for Luis Hernandez 1. Ken Griffey Jr. for 3 years (mutual option for both of the last two years) 5.5 million per year plus incentives 2. Randy Johnson for 1 year 8 million plus incentives 3. Omar Vizquel for 1 year 1.8 million plus incentives 4. Russell Branyan for 1 year 1.4 plus incentives Minor-League Deals: Chad Cordero, Takashi Saito, DAngelo Jimenez, Luis Ugueto, Scott Podsednik, Terry Tiffee, Royce Ring, Charlie Zink, Brian Harben, Brian Myrow, Marshall McDougall, Billy Petrick, J.D. Closser, Franklyn German, Lee Gronkiewicz, Jose Capellan, & Chris Snelling. 2009 Seattle Mariners SP Felix Hernandez (6 million) Erik Bedard (9) Brandon Morrow (.5) Randy Johnson (8) Hill/Willis/Rowland-Smith (11 total) RP Takashi Saito, Closer (1) Mark Lowe, short/middle (.5) Bob McCrory, short/middle (.5) Roy Corcoran, middle/long (.5) Hill/Willis/Rowland-Smith (see above) Hill/Willis/Rowland-Smith (see above) Tankersley/Thatcher/Ring (.5) 1. Ichiro, RF (16.1) 2. Mike Fontenot, 2B (.5) 3. Ken Griffey Jr., LF (5.5) 4. Adrian Beltre, 3B (12) 5. Gary Sheffield, DH/1B (14) 6. Russell Branyan, 1B (1.4) 7. Jeff Clement, C (.5) 8. Franklin Guitterez, CF (.5) 9. Omar Vizquel, SS (1.8) C J.D. Closser (.5) IF DAngelo Jiminez (.5) OF Felix Pie (.5) UT Alfredo Amezaga (1.3) DL Chad Cordero (1) Total Salary 93.6 + 21.5 to other teams= 115.1 UZR/150 for 2008(source fangraphs) Clement (not available, project -5) Branyan (small sample, career 3.3, project 5) Fontenot 16.5 Vizquel 13.8 (had surgery early 2008, lasik post) Beltre 16.1 Gutierrez (small sample, career 17.7, project 10) Ichiro -.2 Junior -24 (had knee surgery after season) 32.2 total but Junior should do better Built to win but also tear down after all kinds of salary comes off the books. Older players but with younger players acquired, in the wings when ready. Switch-hitters on the bench who can play defense. Bullpen is the weak link if the young guys don't work out, power in numbers in AAA. I really like Ruggiano but Pie's out of options so back to AAAA for him. Fontenot & Vizquel are both 2nd at their respective positions in PMR. Pie, Amezaga, & Ruggiano are all great replacements for Junior here & there in the field. 85-90 wins if healthy, ready for more of an overhaul next year. Too many triumphant return stories for most but Junior, the Big Unit, & Little O (won't run from the nicknames) still have skills this team needs even if Little O's OPS against righties was .365 (that has to regress towards the mean). I trust in Jack to follow through on a sound plan though. Amazing what a difference a couple months can make. |
| 40. By: bilbo on 12-20-2008 18:59:43 Lineup 1. Ichiro, RF 2. Lopez, 2B 3. Beltre, 3B 4. Branyan, 1B 5. Dunn, DH 6. Hermida, LF 7. Gutierrez, CF 8. Clement, C 9. Betancourt, SS Bench 1. Shelton, 1B versus LHP 2. Corona, reserve 2B, SS 3. Guzman, fourth OF 4. Joh, backup C Rotation 1. Hernandez, RH 2. Bedard, LH 3. Silva, RH 4. Morrow, RH 5. RRS, LH Bullpen 1. Heilman, CL 2. Lowe, RH Setup 7th-8th inning 3. Corcoran, RH Setup 7th-8th inning 4. Caesar, LH middle/long 5. Lugo, left-on-left 6. Vargas, left-on-left 7. Batista, RH middle/long I am bullish on Yuni and Lopez and willing to give them both a chance to prove it in 2009. Lopez bat should improve enough in 2009 to play 3B if they can't extend Beltre or decide to trade him. Yuni could slide over to second as well depending on how you want to fill the 2B/SS/3B hole Beltre would create. The big trade is Balentien and Moore for Hermida. The fish are looking for a catcher and are said to prefer Moore to Johnson. Seattle prefers Moore but Hermida is worth the difference. Add in Balentin and sweetener to round out the trade. Sign Dunn to 3/33 with an option for a fourth year. Trade Wash to Minnesota or Milwaukee for whatever it takes to get him off the books. Don't have the exact numbers since it depends on how much contract has to be eaten but definitely under $120mm either way. |
| 41. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-20-2008 20:11:16 Haha, Endy Chavez seems to be disintegrating off a lot of your guy's rosters. |
| 42. By: safecochatter on 12-20-2008 21:01:30 part of this is being the gm. so if i'm gm ichiro is tradeable. #1 ichiro,clement,and jimenez to sanfran for sandoval,gillaspie,and j.sanchez. ichiro plays before a much bigger asian population which sells major seats for giants. clement gives sanfran depth and power behind plate that they lose with sandoval. jimmenez is expendable as m's suddenly are awash with lefties. sanchez will replace washburn in rotation. which is now younger and cheaper. gillaspie 2b/3b will help as beltre is moved at trade deadline. #2 wasburn,saunders,wlad to blue jays for vernon wells. jays want salary relief #1 and canadian outfielder michael saunders is too good to pass up. washburn replaces burnett. m's get a clean up hitting outfielder who is owed over 100 million. but the ichiro departure helps salary wise. #3 sign fa baldelli and orlando cabrera,and giffey. baldelli becomes 4th outfielder. but will be used a lot as my lf is a little on the old side of his career. o cab brings a veteran presence at ss and has averaged 600 at bats the last 5 years. jr finishes his career a mariner. of Gutierrez 2b lopez 3b beltre of wells of griffey 1b sandoval dh branyan c johima ss o cab rotation- felix bedard morrow silva rrs pen- batista closer lowe setup corcoran setup vargas lugo heilman j sanchez bench- morse baldelli corona r johnson yuni is optioned to tacoma for seasoning. (i think i can do this) |
| 43. By: rightwingrick on 12-20-2008 21:24:09 Let's start with what we probably DON'T have to do, and what we probably SHOULDN'T be doing. What we shouldn't be doing is fooling ourselves into any short term thinking by assuming we have a real chance at a World Series spot (or probably even a division-leader spot) this year. We foolishly did that last year, and it cost us two great players and two relief pitchers who we could have used. That means we should not be making any major moves that take away long-term strength to try to be "more competitive" this year. So, for instance, I don't trade Hernandez or Morrow for ANYTHING. Nor do I trade guys who appear to be on-the-verge, and I put Lopez, maybe Betancourt, and even bulldog RR Smith in those categories. What we don't have to do is often dictated by our minor league system, and how "ready" guys are (or not)...and how much faith we have in previous evaluations. For example, I think we have good outfield depth in the minors, almost ready, in Saunders (1 year), Balentein (1 year) and Halman (2 years, we hope). Mike Wilson looks like he's actually finally putting it together, as well. At the Major League level, Gutierrez is young and a good prospect, and Ichiro is not going anywhere...so I don't see the outfield as a place to make big and expensive moves at the moment. We need a Major League ready LH hitter for a left field platoon with Chavez while our young guys get time under their belts, but I'm not breaking the bank here this year. I think Griffey on a one or two year contract for LF platoon and DH makes perfect sense; he would immediately bring the best plate discipline and highest OBP we've had there for several years, and he can still hit 25 out, particularly in Seattle. He would be a fun, productive addition in a rebuilding year, with some of our other guys likely to be having break-out years (see below). So he'd help us be competitive, which we were not in '08, and he'd be a giant step up in the DH role, and he knows how to play the OF in the rare cases he would be asked to. Our minor league strength as catcher provides some chance to move Johjima, but I don't think that's possible unless he tears it up in spring training, and he won't be in spring training much this year (the world games, or whatever they are called). Bottom line, we don't need to ADD anything at catcher, and we can't move Johjima. Adam Moore is honestly our best catching prospect, offense and defense combined, and he's at least a year away (although this could be a surprise). And most everyone thinks Clement can hit (but not catch). Rob Johnson has shown he can catch, and hit well enough to be a major league backup, so he's likely trade bait (without a tremendous amount of value, but some). At 1B, Z already made his move. I think Branyan will be there, platooning with Mike Morse (who keeps doing better than everyone expects). And he traded for the future by picking up a very nice 1B prospect in Mike Carp, who will be in AAA this year and hopefully in Seattle in September. And he now has Chris Shelton, 29 with Major League experience, sitting in AAA in case Morse doesn't get it done. So I'm not making any expensive moves here (this year). At 2B, I actually like Lopez (other than his weight and his defense, which he should be able to improve...he came up as a shortstop). I think this may be his true breakout year coming up, and remember, he's still only 25. Tug Hulett should push him, but may end up in AAA as Reegie Corona, not quite ready but a nice pick-up in Rule 5 Draft with what looks like a bit higher upside than Hulett, has to stay on the roster. And if the stuff coming out of Florida about SS Betancourt finally getting serious by working with Ibanez, that's VERY encouraging. His last two months also indicated that something was finally kicking in. And he's only 27, so he's just entered his prime. This may also be his breakout year. Given our competitive position (not!), I ride him out to see what we've got. If we were truly in a pennant race situation, I might trade here, but in our position it probably makes sense to remain patient, and this year should tell us what we need to know. That also gives Triunfel another year of solid development down on the farm. He's likely two years away. And then we come to 3B, where we have a very good defensive player, a reasonable offensive force, with little or no desire to stay with the M's for a longer term than next year's contract. So he's trade bait. But he will likely bring a lot more value at the summer trade deadline, where young prospects can be had. And if that doesn't happen, Z LOVES draft picks, and we might get two if Beltre has a big contract year performance and goes free agent (and I think he will do both). And frankly, Tuiasasopo, only 23 in the coming year, needs another year at AAA and more time in September at the Major League level. If he doesn't pan out, we are weak there in the upper levels of the minors. So there are no obvious replacements at the moment, and many are expecting good things from Beltre this year anyway. I keep Beltre at least to the summer trade deadline. Given the above, I think our position player roster will and should look close to what it is now, with an addition in LF and DH, which was a disaster in '08 (we'll get to both in a bit). Now for pitching. If I'm Wakamatsu, I am making sure RIGHT NOW that Washburn and Silva are working their butts off and come into camp in BY FAR the best shape of their lives. Because I would be pitching these guys consistently, hoping they get on a role, so I could unload them for young prospects late in spring training. Very slim liklihood, but that's what I'd be looking to do. Hernandez, Bedard, and Morrow are my 1,2,3 guys. RR Smith is my #4. I think he's the best competitor on the pitching staff, more under control than Felix and just as intense. He doesn't have all the stuff that Felix has, of course, but I think he's for real and a solid #4 for a long time. And just for the record, these guys are 23, 30, 24, and 25 coming into the season. Pretty damn impressive, and these guys have good Major League time under their belts. With Heilman, Washburn, Silva, and Jason Vargas all having Major League starting experience (some of it very productive, just not for us), I'm filling my #5 slot from that group and not spending any big bucks on a starter now. We also have Aumont, Pineda, and Ramirez all in A ball, top pitching prospects but two or three years away. I trade Bedard at the trade deadline for some top-of-the line minor league pitching (you know, like Chris Tillman). But not to start the season. Which takes us into the bullpen. OUCH! This is such a mishmash, there's no telling how this might play out. But again, I'm not spending big cash or making big moves here (this year), as we are not yet competitive, we don't know what we have here, and we have little to trade anyway except some of our better minor league prospects (no!) and Belte (not yet). Maybe a free agent signing MIGHT be in the works, and I'd be scouring the wires for that kind of low-cost deal to bring some stability to the pen. So here's my roster to open '09: C: Johjima (untradeable) and Clement 1B: Branyan and Morse platoon 2b: Lopez (his breakout year); Reegie Corona (Rule 5) SS: Betancourt; (Corona) 3B: Beltre (Branyan) LF: Chavez; Mike Wilson (oldest of prospects; let's find out) (Griffey) CF: Gutierrez (Chavez) RF: Ichiro; (Morse) DH: Griffey (Clement; Branyan; Morse) SP: Hernandez, Bedard, Morrow, RR Smith, Heilman (breaks in at #5 after years in the pen; more rest for his arm) RP: Batista (closer, as he did for Toronto); Mark Lowe set-up; Roy Corcoran; Cesar Jimanez; Jason Vargas; Jose Lugo (Rule 5), Carlos Silva (probably untradeable no matter how good a spring he has). IN SHORT, THIS IS A YEAR OF EVALUATION, WHILE BEING MORE COMPETITIVE WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD THE MEAN (IMPROVEMENT) AT c, MORE ON-BASE AND POWER CONSISTENCY AT 1b, BREAKOUT YEARS AT 2b AND ss, A BIG CONTRACT YEAR AT 3b, TREMENDOUSLY BETTER OUTFIELD DEFENSE, FAR MORE CONSISTENCY AT dh, A YOUNGER, STRONGER, HEALTHIER STARTING FIVE....AND A MESS IN THE BULLPEN. I'd be looking to pick up prospects from trades of Washburn in spring training (and Silva if I could), Beltre and Bedard at the trading deadline; neither want to be here next year, and both may have very good value. And this is a roster AT A COST BELOW LAST YEAR. I would expect our roster in September would like quite different, and our minor league system to have about 3 to 5 more top prospects from the proposed trades. |
| 44. By: rotoenquire on 12-20-2008 21:25:32 Lineup 1. Ichiro, RF 2. J. Lopez, 1B 3. D. Murphy 3B 4. O. Hudson 2B 5. Johjima, C/DH 6. Balentien, LF 7. Gutierrez, CF 8. Clement, DH/C 9. Betancourt, SS Bench 1. Guzman, fourth OF 2. Corona, reserve 2B, SS 3. Branyan, 1B/OF 4. Johnson, backup C Rotation 1. Hernandez, RH 2. Bedard, LH 3. Penny SP/Sheets SP 4. Morrow, RH 5. Silva, RH Bullpen 1. M. Lowe CL 2. J. Todd Relief set-up Trade 3. Corcoran, RH Setup 7th-8th inning 4. Rowland-Smith, LH middle/long 5. Lugo, left-on-left 6. Vargas, left-on-left 7. Batista, RH middle/long Trading Beltre for minor league depth and the future. Trading Washburn to the Mets for D. Murphy to play 3B. Mets need another decent SP maybe get another young bat as well. Trading A. Hielman to Stl who needs another SP for J. Todd a future closer and another prospect. you get younger and add people to fill holes. Hielman is due more after 09 and washburn will depart so will Beltre stike now and now more before spring training what you got. And you hope Bedard and Silva have good years to maybe dumb before trading deadline to bolster even more for next year. And open up the pocket books next year.... |
| 45. By: rightwingrick on 12-20-2008 21:32:00 Forgive the typos, it was a lot of keyboarding. |
| 46. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-21-2008 00:16:34 42 and 44.. Another two that forgot Endy Chavez exists. And I gotta say.. why in the hell would NY trade Daniel Murphy for Washburn? Gold bricks will fall out of the sky before that ridiculous trade would happen. |
| 47. By: slick on 12-21-2008 00:20:21 Trade Washburn Heilman and Ryan F. To the Cardinals for Rick Ankiel. Cardinals needs some starters and inning eaters. The satus of Carpenter is kind of unknown, and my guess is that the brewers will overpay Looper. This is the last year of Ankiel's contract before free agency Seattle replaces Ibanez with Left Handed power Ankiel goes at end of the year and M's get Sandwich pick. This buys time for Wlad Suanders Halman. Sign free agents Saito for 1 year 3.5 million, and Juan Cruz for 3 year 9 million dollar contracts. With Putz leaving we need to sure up the pen a little. Saito's arm is kind of an unknown at this point, but for one year it is worth the gamble. As for Cruz his 12k per 9 shows that he could be insurance for an off injured Saito or a strong set up man. Cruz is type A so we would give up something like the 55 pick in the draft, but if we dont sign Fields we should have 4 of the top 40 picks. OF Ichiro Ankiel Gutierrez Wlad Chavez 1B Branyan Morse 2B Lopez Hulet SS Yuni Hulet 3rd Beltre C Jojimha Johnson DH Clement Wlad Starters Felix Bedard Morrow RRS Silva Bullpen CL Saito SU Cruz SU Lowe LR Jimenez LR Bautisa LR Corcoran |
| 48. By: Blowgun7 on 12-21-2008 00:21:29 I liked #39.. he traded away the entire system and half the roster |
| 49. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-21-2008 00:27:03 Far too many of you aren't explaining why each team would make those trades. You have til Monday to explain, or your comment gets deleted. |
| 50. By: rotoenquire on 12-21-2008 02:00:28 #46 about #44 I used Jason's roster as a template and Chavez is not there either. But, with Branyan being signed and there rule 5 guys and other needs on the bench does he have a space? He (Chavez) could be moved in any of trades I listed. As for Murphy he is a player that can be delt by the Mets. Delgado is at 1st, Wright is at 3rd. And with Pagan, Beltran, Church, Evans, Reed in the OF and F. Martinez on the way, Murphy is tradeable and Washburn givin what other players namely starting pitching is wanting in the way of dollars, Washburn is a steal and should do well in the NL. Also D. Murphy was not even considered in most top 10 prospects going into last year for the Mets. the following sites still have there top 10-20 prospects by team from 2008 still up. BaseballAmerica.com, MinorLeagueball.com, MetsProspects.com, metsgeek.com. In all of those Murphy appears once at #18. Now look out for those gold bricks! My moves are not that far fetched and make allot of sence. Jess Todd is a monster who could be years end take over as closer. And Hielman is best suited for the NL, I am not a big fan of players comming over from the NL unless there super stars. But guys getting there start from a young age have a better chance to make it, such as Todd, Murphy and alike. Beltre has allot of teams interested and getting young talent no matter how young would be a plus for our minors and the M's future. |
| 51. By: slick on 12-21-2008 04:20:44 why trade for Washburn when free agents Wolf Redding Randy Johnson Oliver Perez Brad Penny Freddy Garcia Colon Sheets Looper have not signed. Delgado has 1 year left on contract Murphy could be used to replace him next year. |
| 52. By: griggs on 12-21-2008 09:45:21 Sign SP Ben Sheets to a 3-year, $30 million contract. This would give us a "three headed monster" in Felix, Bedard, and Sheets. We would easily have one of the best pitching staffs in the AL. With the market the way it is, this could potentially be a steal. Sign Rocco Baldelli to a 2 yr 6 million dollar contract. Include incentives for the contract to be worth up to 10 million dollars total. By signing Baldelli you are taking a huge risk, but the reward could be great. He is a potential all-star and above average defender IF healthy. For only 3 million a year, I would say its worth the risk. 25-man roster: Lineup: 1. Ichiro RF ($16.1 m) 2. Lopez 2B ($1.6m) 3. Branyan 1B ($1.9) 4. Beltre 3B ($12m) 5. Rocco Baldelli DH/LF(3 m) 6. Clement C (425 K) 7. Balentien DH/LF (425K) 8. Gutierrez CF ($425 K) 9. Yuniesky Betancourt Bench: Shelton 1B ($400 K)Shelton will start against LH SP. Johjima C (8 m) Corona IF ($400K) Chavez LF ($2.05m) Rotation: 1. Felix ($1m) 2. Bedard ($9 m) 3. Sheets (10 m) 4. Brandon Morrow ($425 K) 5. Jarrod Washburn (10 m) Bullpen: CL Heilman ($2m) SU Corcoran ($425 K) SU Lowe ($425 K) MR Lugo ($425 K, LOOGY) MR Batista ($9m) MR/LR Carlos Silva (11 m) LR RRS (425K) Reasoning: I understand that I am going to get a lot of flack for having Silva in a MR/LR. I feel like you have to go with your strongest five in the rotation, right now I feel like four of the five I listed are the strongest. Washburn I let pitch until the AS break. At the AS break I will then look to trade him. I think it would be ridiculous to trade him (along with Joh) when they have no value and won't get us anything in return. If Wash pitches great the first few months of the season, maybe we get a good return on him. If he pitches poorly, we're in the same situation we are in now. I also tell Wash/Silva/RRS that they can play themselves into (or out of) the rotation by pitching well (or poorly). I feel like the M's have to let Balentien play, they have too much time invested into him. Baldelli and WLAD share LF duties, giving Baldelli a much needed rest due to his recent health issues. Hopefully Joh hits well enough as a backup and obtains some trade value, possibly the Yankees, Angels, maybe Blue Jays? |
| 53. By: Jerry on 12-21-2008 10:58:07 Here is a question? Can I trade Ichiro? It is a 100% sure thing that the M's won't deal him, but what fun is it to play armchair GM without a little bit of autonomy? |
| 54. By: rotoenquire on 12-21-2008 11:51:00 #51 Three reasons Nick Evens 1B/OF, Jefry Marte 3B/1B, I. Davis 1B 2008 #1 pick. They have allot of options, reason why Carp was expendable as well.. Perez wants 13 Mil, Lowe is seekign 14-15 mil, Penny (risky) and Sheets (risky, Johnson will stay close to home and Wolf wants a huge deal as well 11 Mil or more while Washburn is 10 but he is gone at years end which is when Niese will be ready. Injury risks are not an option when you are looking to overcome 2 years of choking. |
| 55. By: Jerry on 12-21-2008 12:47:46 Big Rebuild Trades: -Ichiro and Washburn to NYY for Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy, Andrew Brackman, and Zach McAllister -Yunieski Betancourt to KC for Billy Butler -Kenji Johjima to BOS for Julio Lugo Free Agency: -OF Rocco Baldelli (2/5 plus team option) -Ken Griffey Jr. (1/6 mil plus incentives) -RHP Derek Turnbow (1/1 mil) -RHP Scott Mathieson (minor league deal) -RHP Ambiorix Burgos (minor league deal) -Sign one of Takashi Saito, Eric Gagne (based on medical reports) C Clement 400K 1B Branyan/Butler 1.4 mil 2B Lopez 1.6 mil 3B Beltre 12 mil SS Lugo 9 mil LF Cabrera 400K CF Gutierrez 400K RF Baldelli 2.5 mil DH Griffey Jr./Butler 6 mil SP1 Felix 2 mil SP2 Bedard 10 mil SP3 Silva 11 mil SP4 Heilman 3 mil SP5 Morrow 400K SP6 Rowland-Smith 400K CL Batista 9 mil RSU Saito/Gagne 2.5 mil MR Turnbow 400K MR Corcoran 400K MR Lowe 400K MR Lugo 400K MR Thomas 400K LR Rowland-Smith 400K MI Hulett 400K OF Chavez 2 mil PH/DH Butler 400K C Johnson 400K Minors: Kennedy, Brackman, McAllister, Mathieson, Burgos Total Payroll: 76.6 mil Here are my explanations on the trades: 1. Ichiro and Washburn to NYY for Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy, Andrew Brackman, and Zach McAllister The Yankees are clearly all-in this year. Ichiro fills the biggest hole in their lineup in CF and as leadoff man. He adds speed to an offense and defense that lacks it. Washburn is a throw-in, but could help them out as a dependable innings eater for the back of their rotation. In this deal, they don't lose any of their top young players (Austin Jackson, Jesus Montero, Phil Hughes, or Robinson Cano). This makes sense for the M's because it would help fill a very depleted farm system with upper level pitching. Kennedy is ML ready right now, but could use a full first half in AAA. Kennedy projects as a very good #3 starter. McAllister is a groundball pitcher who is a safe bet to be a dependable innings eater, and perhaps more. He would go to AA in 2008, and could be up by 2010. And Brackman has a ton of upside. He is coming off injury, and doesn't have much of a track record, but 6'10" guys who throw 100MPH with a plus curve don't grow on trees. Cabrera is a useful stopgap in RF now, but also has some upside and plus defense in RF. 2. Yunieski Betancourt to KC for Billy Butler This has been talked about a lot. The Royals like Betancourt, and are down on Butler. The M's need offense. This is a good fit. Kila Ka'Aihue would be another option. 3. Kenji Johjima to BOS for Julio Lugo This is a great trade of bad contracts. The Red Sox need a catcher, and Johjima is a good bet for a bounce back season. His numbers would look a lot better in Fenway. He could also work well with Matsuzaka, Okajima, and Tazawa. The Red Sox have another SS they have already committed to in Jed Lowrie. Lugo helps the M's with decent defense and ability to get on base. He would be a good stopgap at SS in 2009, with a move to 2B in 2010. Free Agents: Rocco Baldelli is pretty much a no-brainer. He plays good defense, can hit, and has upside. Griffey is a stopgap who helps fill some seats, which is a big issue with Ichiro gone. He also provides some lefty power, but mainly is a nice storyline to a season that won't be that productive. The other signings are all power arms who could emerge as plus contributors. Burgos, Turnbull, and Mathieson are all guys who throw really hard, but have had problems with health and/or consistency. Given the M's situation, it is really smart to load up on these types and potentially find another hidden gem like JJ Putz. Saito and Gagne are also low-risk, high-reward additions who could help bolster the bullpen. These guys give the team potential contributors PLUS potential trade chips. This scenario is basically a transition year. The team makes a few trades to bolster the farm system, add some young players, and keep their options open. Next offseason, the club would have Beltre, Batista, Branyan, Griffey, Bedard, and Chavez coming off the books, giving them a great deal of financial flexibility plus at least a few extra draft picks. This leaves the door open for guys like Kennedy, Balentien, Saunders, Halman, and Moore to contribute in 2010. |
| 56. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-21-2008 13:14:32 I'm not much of a roster-bater myself but here's a shot. I honestly think that the Putz deal is by far the biggest one of the winter. Anything else from here on would be small taters. With exception to maybe one deal I would like to see done.. Adam Moore and Wlad Balentien for Jeremy Hermida Hermida has been actively talked about since he's looking at a nice raise in arbitration. The Marlins don't like to pay money so.. He has already been linked in rumors to Seattle with Florida asking for Adam Moore and the Mariners wanting to deal Rob Johnson. I still think they would want more even if they got Moore (haha). But to give up Hermida and not get an outfielder back doesn't make much sense. The Marlins aren't exactly stacked with MLB ready outfielders. I have been one of the biggest Wlad fans around but he still looks very raw at the big league level. Safeco isn't doing him any favors either. I wouldn't be surprised if he started '09 back in AAA. The Marlins do this because they get a catcher they were supposedly after and a potential solid bat on the cheap to replace Hermida in the outfield. Seattle obviously does this to get a more established left fielder that hits left handed with power and at 24 years old, he still has a ton of projection and room for improvement. 2007's line of Hermida hitting .296/.369/.501 at 23 years old is something to get a little giddy about. If he can stave off the injury bug, he could be a nice hitter and solid fielder for Seattle in years to come. Sign Griffey to a 1 year + incentives deal ...For roughly say, 5 million + ~2 million in performance/PA appearance incentives. So say in the area of 7 million if he does well. I'd do this simply because I am not an Adam Dunn fan and Bradley is looking to get pretty spendy. With the Cubs hard after him, I doubt he would consider being a full time DH for us anyway. Griffey doesn't have many suitors and has openly admitted he would take any job he could get (1B/DH/etc). He already has been linked to wanting to come back to Seattle for his fair well tour. He would be a nice draw for attendance dollars and if he does well, he would be that type of draw all year long. Dump Washburn however we can More specifically, wait until Spring Training is upon us and target a team or two with rotation problems. Eating a few million and getting back a PTBNL or similar seems like it could be a possibility. Thats about what I think is likely this winter. I really don't see any huge trade half our farm system for Prince Fielder deals coming down the pike. =================================================== Opening day 25 man roster.. RF Ichiro ($17m) LF Hermida (**$3M) 3B Beltre ($12m) DH Griffey (*$7m) 2B Lopez ($1.6M) 1B Branyan (*$1.9M) C Clement ($400K) CF Gutierrez ($400K) SS Betancourt ($2M) SS/2B Corona ($400K) OF Chavez ($2.05M) C Johnson ($400K) C Johjima ($8M) 1B Shelton or 1B/3B Morse($400K Hernandez (**$4M) Bedard (**$8M) Morrow ($400K) Silva ($11M) RRS ($400K) MR/LR Batista ($9M) MR/LR Vargas ($400K) MR Corcoran ($400K) LOOGY Lugo (haha)($400K) SU Lowe ($400K) CL Heilman (**$2M) *including incentives **arbitration guess On Shelton and Morse; I really take the guy who looks better in ST. Morse has an advantage in that he play 3B but a disadvantage in that he doesn't take a walk. Shelton would be a better defender at 1B as well. Both guys seem interchangeable. ...So adding, say, 3 million to salary eaten in the Washburn deal... Total Salaray: 95,950,000 I like this team and think its a solid foundation for improvement down the road. I really don't want to see any Dunn-type long term deals given out in such a transitional state. I think this team could be better than .500 with a little luck. |
| 57. By: deturet on 12-21-2008 13:54:09 I think we could find a match in a Beltre package deal with the Atlanta Braves or St. Louis Cardinals. Possibly Shaeffer++ or possibly Rasmus/Wallace++. Anybody? |
| 58. By: bilbo on 12-21-2008 14:13:36 Crusty, thanks for making fun of me in post 41 and then copying my trade idea. :-) Like Roto did, I forgot about Chavez primarily because I copied Jason's post and modified it, which is why Endy wasn't on there. Jerry, I like the idea of Yuni for Butler if you can swing Johjima for Lugo or bring in a SS some other way but only if you don't sign Dunn. Bottom line is if you can get a Hermida-type for LF and get a good DH then you have a team that can seriously compete in 09. |
| 59. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-21-2008 14:59:00 Bilbo, I figured it was the least I could do after takin' a shot at ya. ;) I always liked the Hermida idea ever since the Mariners were linked to him. There is no way Moore gets it done alone and Balentien is the logical guy to move if an outfielder is sent along. I don't see how Chavez isn't on this team come opening day. He makes 2 million and is a good fit on this team (LHed, plus defense at all OF spots, etc). Guzman is a good fit as well but doesn't have the track record of Chavez and while Guzman is a speedster base stealing extraordinaire, I would have to side with Chavez being a better hitter and defender. "Bottom line is if you can get a Hermida-type for LF and get a good DH then you have a team that can seriously compete in 09." Totally agree. It would at least be interesting to see how well they would do. The bullpen is going to be interesting to watch. Right now its really a questionmark. |
| 60. By: slick on 12-21-2008 15:14:25 #54 The economy is not to good it is bargain time for free agents that is why it will be so hard to move Washburn. Washburn is not even on the Mets radar with IFA from Japan, and a lot of bargains out there the mets should have no problem finding a 4th starter. It would serve the Mets best if they used Murphy for trade bait for Roberts Peavy Marquis or Duchscherer. |
| 61. By: Slurve on 12-21-2008 15:20:53 Here is my shot hehehehe... Lineup 1. Ichiro! RF 2. Guti CF 3. Beltre 3B or Crede 4. Branyan 1B 5. Clement/Joh C 6. Lopez, 2b 7. Baldelli/Edmonds LF 8. Joh/Clement DH 9. Betancourt, SS Bench 1. Morse, 1B versus LHP 2. Corona, reserve 2B, SS 3. Chavez, fourth OF 4. Johnson, backup C Rotation 1. Hernandez, RH 2. Bedard, LH 3. Morrow, RH 4. RR-S!, LH 5. Silva..., RH Bullpen 1. Heilman, CL if starting doesn't work to well 2. Lowe, RH Setup 7th-8th inning 3. Corcoran, RH Setup 7th-8th inning 4. Lugo, left-on-left/Middle or Vargas 5. Thomas, left-on-left 6. Batista, RH middle/long or Gagne or Dickey! Signings Baldelli 2 year contract for about 6 million with incentives. Reason- Since he was misdiagnosed he wasn't able to play at 100% but now he can bring decent D at LF and has reasonable power. Sign Gagne to a minor league contract with a ST invitation. Reason- Gagne can be a pretty good bullpen guy but he just fell off the table recently but if he can figure out what is going wrong with him and turn it around he could be an asset. Sign Dickey to a minor league contract with a ST invitation Reason- Dickey splits for some reason are better has a reliever and I believe we should give his knuckler one last chance because if utilized he can be very effective especially if we bring a fireballer like Lowe right after him because it would mess up the hitters timing A LOT. Sign Jim Edmonds to a 1 year 2-3 million contract. Reason-He brings defense and decent power to Seattle and can serve as a stop gap till Saunders comes in and play in LF. Sign Joe Crede ONLY in the event that Beltre is traded 1 year 3-5 million Reason- He is a stop gap for Tui defense is questionable but he hits pretty well. Trades Washburn to - The Brewers and the Twins are possible and we'll have to eat some salary I think the brewers are a better fit since they have 2 pitchers leaving and Wash in the NL might do him some good and that's one pitcher out of the pitching logjam. Beltre to - Only if we're getting something like Tim Lincecum and someone else in return he is one of our premier guys and if you trade him it's for a ML ready talent and prospect(s) Wild Cards that might affect the roster during ST. Dickey/Gagne- If they prove to be amazing they might just end up taking Batista's job away from him.(if that happens well dump Batista...) Michael Saunders- If he has a monster ST he might split time with Baldelli and make Edmond go into the 4 OF or we could just send him to AAA and hope he continues his monster success until September and he dies well. Gaby Hernandez- He might prove an asset in the bullpen or even as a starter but he has to get control of his 4 pitches if not hopefully his Curve can find that bite again and his FB velo goes back to were it was. Feierabend- Meh show me a above average 3rd pitch and then we'll start talking because a FB/CU combo won't get him the Lefty situational job maybe middle but if he wants to start he'll need to get a 3rd pitch. Craig Wilson- He was AAA filler but he could serve as the right side platoon for Branyan as well LaHair- Hasn't shown to power he has in the minors (40 doubles!?! close to 20 HR!) but hey if he has a good ST maybe he might land himself a DH gig. Balentein-he can hit in AAA no question about that but he continues to struggle in ML so we could trade him or maybe pending his spring training give him a DH gig or send him to AAA or as trade bait along with Beltre. This roster gives a watchable team probably won't contend but we might and you aren't trading away your future either so it's not rebuilding but more like reconstructing. |
| 62. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-21-2008 15:27:53 "Beltre to - Only if we're getting something like Tim Lincecum and someone else in return he is one of our premier guys and if you trade him it's for a ML ready talent and prospect(s)" Aiming a bit high aren't ya? You want the 24 year old NL Cy Young award winner AND someone else for 1 year of Beltre??? Guh.. |
| 63. By: Slurve on 12-21-2008 15:34:51 62. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-21-2008 14:27:53 "Beltre to - Only if we're getting something like Tim Lincecum and someone else in return he is one of our premier guys and if you trade him it's for a ML ready talent and prospect(s)" Aiming a bit high aren't ya? You want the 24 year old NL Cy Young award winner AND someone else for 1 year of Beltre??? Guh.. Yes though Lincy situation is quite a stretch I'm just saying unless you get ML ready talent along with prospects it's not really worth taking because Beltre has Godly defense and has 20-30 HR in he is definitely a type A so you get draft picks if he leaves. |
| 64. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-21-2008 15:57:34 The difference between MLB ready talent and the best pitcher in the NL is quite a gap. |
| 65. By: Lailoken on 12-21-2008 16:21:08 1. Yuniesky Betancourt, Jarrod Washburn, Kenji Johjima, Ryan Feierabend, & 5 million in '09 to LAD for Chin-lung Hu, Juan Pierre, & Greg Miller LAD now has Blake at 3B & Furcal at SS but no one for 2B. Betancourt's offseason workout program & improvement at the tail end of the season plus the fact he is in his prime make him a breakout candidate after a disappointing season. Juan Pierre & Kenji Johjima are albatross contracts but Johjima would get more PT in LAD where there is a superclogged OF. Also, Johjima may opt out & go back to Japan. That 22.1% LD rate & .233 BABIP for Johjima makes his 2008 look like an anomaly. The Dodgers have not been sold enough on Hu to stick with him when Furcal was injured now they've reupped Furcal for three years. Washburn fills a hole in a LAD rotation that was gutted this offseason. As a flyball pitcher Dodger Stadium works to his strongsuit. Feierabend adds depth to LAD's AAA rotation in case the starters they do fill out their ML rotation with are risks. Miller is a LH power arm with a killer slider who has trouble putting the ball over the plate. 2. Juan Pierre, Wladimir Balentien, Rob Johnson, 9.5 million in 09, 8.5 million in 10, & 7 million in 11 to FLA for Sean West, Jose Ceda, Alfredo Amezaga, & Taylor Tankersley The Marlins have been shedding their gazillion arbitration cases all winter. Amezaga & Tankersley are two more of those. The Marlins want to get younger, faster, better at defense, & not spend much money. Pierre is a familiar face who fits that profile except that he's getting older but with most of his salary covered he becomes a bargain. Balentien fits the profile better & gives them speed as well as power. Those two would free the Marlins to trade Hermida for whatever gives them the best value. The Marlins have been looking for a catcher to share duties with Baker, & Johnson is ML ready, possibly a bargain as he improved dramatically last season in the batter's box. While West & Ceda are valuable pieces the Marlins have pitching coming out of their ears. Their list of power relievers at or near ML ready is over ten names long, same with starters. Tankersley is another decent velocity lefty whose control suddenly disappeared last year, worth a flier. 3. Jose Lopez, Matt Tuiasosopo, Justin Thomas, Stephen Kahn, Nathan Adcock, Matt Mangini, & Carlos Peguero to BAL for Brian Roberts, Bob McCrory, & Marcus Moore Would you accept a young, inexpensive All-Star 2B; a future starting 3B, a LH power arm near ML ready, a RH power arm who hits 96 on the gun, a back of the rotation starter, and two young left-handed bats with potential but some rough edges for your older, expensive All-Star 2B, a power RH reliever, & an A-ball RH reliever? I think it's a fair deal. Sure, the mass migration of youngsters to the Orioles brings back uncomfortable memories but this trade sets up the next trade. It is my assertion that young, inexpensive bullpen arms are undervalued. Look at last year's midseason trades. Those out of contention can get useful pieces for bullpen arms which are easily replaceable internally (if your org is run right) & save a lot of money off your budget with a cheap bullpen. The McCrorys & Cedas of the world pay off huge. While I still wouldn't sign Josh Fields for 1.5 million (that's not cheap enough for the potential value of other positions) having bullpen depth to shorten games is a real strategic advantage as is not having your budget constrained due to bloated contracts for aging relievers whose stuff erodes too quickly. 4. Brian Roberts, Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Gaby Hernandez, & Bryan Lahair to ChiC for Mike Fontenot, Felix Pie, Rich Hill, & Dumas Garcia The Cubs have the pieces in place to contend. Zambrano, Dempster, Marmol, Soriano, Ramirez, Soto ... they're GOOD. Roberts is a missing piece push you over the top type of player to this team. Throw in some depth to help with their World Series pursuit (Heilman & Chavez) & you get a former 195 inning 180 strikeout LH starter that Pinella doesn't want on his team again (control loss entirely last year), a former #1 prospect in Pie who has struggled at the big league level but is only 23, & Fontenot. Fontenot suddenly learned to hit lefties last year (.893 OPS last year, .683 career) as a LH hitter. He was 2nd in PMR for 2B & had a .909 OPS, he's 28 & the price is right since he's only been in the bigs two seasons. Dumas Garcia, a Chilean signed from Indy ball, as a 24 yo blazed through the Cubs minor league system last year allowing only 50 hits in 74.2 innings. Both Hill & Pie are out of options (& have tested the org's patience) so the Cubs were going to trade those two anyway. 5. Carlos Silva, Kalian Sams, 3 million in 10, & 3 million in 11 to DET for Gary Sheffield & Dontrelle Willis This next part is a delicate subject but Detroit as a city is going to endure some economic suffering next season. According to Bleacher Report the team lost $40 million last year, imagine what they'll lose this year. If the Tigers can improve their ballclub while spending less I think they'll do it. Sheffield has tude & didn't endear himself to fans with complaints & mound-charging during his worst season. He struggled all year for the first time in his career, saddled with nagging injuries. Even though he hit only .227 he posted a .754 OPS. Willis utterly fell apart & willingly accepted a demotion to the minors. Why do I want these guys? Well, Sheffield has one year left on his contract & is headed to the Hall of Fame. I'm convinced he will bounce back. Willis has that deceptive delivery that everyone says is an arm-killer but he does have youth on his side & two years left on his contract. The real trick in this deal is that for 1 year of Sheffield & two of Willis we trade away three of Silva. Yes, he's slimming down. Yes, he can eat up innings (all he'd need to do in Detroit behind Verlander & Bonderman). Still, Silva is a pitch-to-contact no-stuff bloated contract on the books long term. This feels like a trade in the NBA. Take on salary this year big time, shed half a million next year, & shed 9 million in 2011 (covering 3 million of Silva's contract). Realistically, this is the time when we'll really be rebuilt enough to compete again with a more stable cast of players. 6. Tug Hulett, Johan Limonta, & Robert Rohrbaugh to TB for Justin Ruggiano & Wade Townsend I really like Ruggiano. He has a great arm, some speed, & he's hit at every step of the minors. He's toolsy & ready for his shot. Reminds me of Buhner. Strikes out too much but has developed more power over time. His defensive stats are excellent. Townsend won't likely pitch till the end of 2009 due to shoulder surgery (he had Tommy John surgery previously). Even with his injury problems he has rung up 181 batters in 208.2 minor league innings. Tuglett is good insurance & would pair nicely with Brignac in AAA. Limonta is a future back-up corner OF with a nice lefty stick, some patience & power. Rohrbaugh is nice AAA insurance, too. 7. Cesar Jiminez, Mike Morse, & Stephen Richard to SD for Joe Thatcher & Matt Bush Thatcher is another lefty that fell apart in 2008 on the big league level but his minor league numbers show he can still miss a fair number of bats. The first time he struggled in professional ball was last year in the bigs but he was still excellent in the minors. He's getting older now at 27. Jimenez, however, is young at 23. He's still developing his offspeed stuff but had significant success this year & has the ability to start. SD would value Jimenez more than Thatcher. Morse is out of options but versatile & can hit. Richard fared well in the Hawaiian winter league & could make it as a spare bullpen arm. Bush throws hard (reportedly has hit 99) but has busted an ankle & had Tommy John surgery besides being suspended for underage drinking & assault before he even played a professional inning. He thre just 7.2 innings last year. Thatcher had the kind of year in the bigs that many people don't want to see his mug again down in SD (42 hits in 25.2 innings). 3 ML players, one a young lefty who could start for two ML possible players, both with reasons to show them the door. One possible hiccup is that Bush probably has the most upside of anyone in this deal. 8. Miguel Batista & 7 million to TOR for Brian Jeroloman This one speaks for itself. Toronto loses Halladay & maybe Parrish. Batista is known there & hasn't totally lost his velocity. For two million Batista is a bargain if he regresses back toward the mean. Jeroloman is a decent hitting left-handed catcher with questionable defense. A nice option if Clement can't hold down catcher. 9. Future Considerations to KC for Luis Hernandez The kid can play a lot of defense. A nice option if we need someone besides Hu. I say pair him with Triunfel or Hu & inspire them to play top notch defense. 1. Ken Griffey Jr. for 3 years (mutual option for both of the last two years) 5.5 million per year plus incentives 2. Randy Johnson for 1 year 8 million plus incentives 3. Omar Vizquel for 1 year 1.8 million plus incentives Since nobody here knows these names I'll have to do a lot of explaining. Junior still has pop & would be better in the field after knee surgery. Amezaga, Pie, & Ruggiano are all excellent late inning replacements &/or occasional starters. He can still hit 30 home runs & hit.280. If his hamstring is fine after that ligament surgery a couple years back (it finally appears to be) & his knee is alright (it should be from all reports) he will move around okay even though he's not a spring chicken anymore. I admit it, I was sad the day he left. My motivation for having children young went way down because I couldn't bring them to the ballpark to see Junior in a Mariners uniform. With Sheffield playing some 1B when Branyan sits against lefties Junior can move to DH & get some rest. If both sides agree he should come back in 2010 it would be as a DH. The cost is not prohibitive, the ballpark is made for LH power, & the story is the type of story that makes this the greatest game on earth. Little O had knee surgery early last year which hobbled him to start, was jerked around on playing time as the Giants tested younger players, & then had Lasik eye surgery after the season. He was 2nd in PMR but his OPS against lefties (in a super small sample due to spotty PT)was only .365 vs. .647 for his career of twenty years. Did he need the Lasik to see with his dominant eye batting right-handed? I don't know but that's falling off the map which usually means at least reasonable regression to the mean when all the other peripherals check out (his OPS against righties was .602 vs. .711 for his career, & his range as a 41 yo was still better than all but one of the whipper snappers). He's a bargain. Randy Johnson. The gas might not reach epic levels anymore but the heart & stuff combined are enough to make him a very valuable #3 starter. Only once, back in 2003, did the Big Unit allow more hits than inning pitched. He may not punch out as many batters but he makes up for that with issuing an astoundingly few free passes (44 in 184 innings in 2008). He may want to go to a contender but with my roster construction I think he would be a nice final piece to have the team in a position to make the playoffs. Minor-League Deals: Chad Cordero, Takashi Saito, DAngelo Jimenez, Luis Ugueto, Scott Podsednik, Terry Tiffee, Royce Ring, Charlie Zink, Brian Harben, Chris Britton, Marshall McDougall, Billy Petrick, J.D. Closser, Franklyn German, Lee Gronkiewicz, Jose Capellan, & Chris Snelling. Cordero will be out most of the year but can take the ball in important late innings down the stretch. Saito is a bit of a risk with a new type of surgery performed on his elbow but has been consistent when on the mound. Jimenez can switch hit, has decent range, & can take a walk. Ring could easily win a bullpen spot with his arm. Closser can catch a decent game, switch hit, & has some pop in his bat. Ugueto, Podsednik, Tiffee, McDougall, & Snelling can all play some defense, hit a little, take a walk, & come at the right price to compete for a spot on the big club. Zink & Harben add some starting depth at AAA, Zink has that neat knuckleballer trick of not needing a rubber arm if the big club has some injuries. Petrick, German, & Capellan all throw some serious heat but need to refine their secondary offerings/control. Gronkiewicz is a useful arm when healthy but will miss most of the season. Britton is second only to Ceda as a next in line arm for a young bullpen. 2009 Seattle Mariners SP Felix Hernandez (6 million) Erik Bedard (9) Brandon Morrow (.5) Randy Johnson (8) Hill/Willis/Rowland-Smith (11 total) RP Takashi Saito, Closer (1) Mark Lowe, short/middle (.5) Bob McCrory, short/middle (.5) Roy Corcoran, middle/long (.5) Hill/Willis/Rowland-Smith (see above) Hill/Willis/Rowland-Smith (see above) Tankersley/Thatcher/Ring/Lugo/Vargas (.5) 1. Ichiro, RF (16.1) 2. Mike Fontenot, 2B (.5) 3. Ken Griffey Jr., LF (5.5) 4. Adrian Beltre, 3B (12) 5. Gary Sheffield, DH/1B (14) 6. Russell Branyan, 1B (1.4) 7. Jeff Clement, C (.5) 8. Franklin Guitterez, CF (.5) 9. Omar Vizquel, SS (1.8) C J.D. Closser (.5) IF DAngelo Jiminez/Corona (.5) OF Felix Pie (.5) UT Alfredo Amezaga (1.3) DL Chad Cordero (1) Total Salary 93.6 + 21.5 to other teams= 115.1 UZR/150 for 2008(source fangraphs) Clement (not available, project -5) Branyan (small sample, career 3.3, project 5) Fontenot 16.5 Vizquel 13.8 (had surgery early 2008, lasik post) Beltre 16.1 Gutierrez (small sample, career 17.7, project 10) Ichiro -.2 Junior -24 (had knee surgery after season) 32.2 total but Junior should do better Built to win but also tear down after all kinds of salary comes off the books. This offseason plan would shed the dead weight of bigger salaries (Silva, Washburn, & Johjima) & younger players whose defense is substandard (Lopez & Betancourt). Older players but with younger players acquired, in the wings when ready. Switch-hitters on the bench who can play defense. Bullpen is the weak link if the young guys don't work out, power in numbers in AAA. I really like Ruggiano but Pie's out of options so back to AAAA for Mr. Ruggiano, that'd be a nice problem to have. Fontenot & Vizquel are both 2nd at their respective positions in PMR. Pie, Amezaga, & Ruggiano are all great replacements for Junior here & there in the field. 85-90 wins if healthy, ready for more of an overhaul next year. Too many triumphant return stories for most but Junior, the Big Unit, & Little O (won't run from the nicknames) still have skills this team can utilize as prominent role players rather than stars. I trust in Jack to follow through on a sound plan though. Amazing to think I can be saying this about the Mariners after the last few years. What a difference a couple of months can make. |
| 66. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-21-2008 17:59:05 Holy Jesus man.. Thats a long post. |
| 67. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-21-2008 18:03:57 Lailoken .. Congrats on the dissertation but that is pure crazyness. Teams just don't trade half of their organization in one winter. |
| 68. By: stickball on 12-21-2008 18:28:52 JZ ia the master of the 3 team trade. 3 Team Trade: Mets: Alex Rios (gets $5m bonus to waive no trade clause), Tug Hulett, Maikel Cleto. Blue Jays: Erik Bedard, Wlad Balentien. Mariners: Daniel Murphy, Fernando Martinez, Marc Rzepczynski. The Mariners pay $4m of the $5m to waive the no-trade, the mets pay $1m. The Blue Jays and Bedard have mutual attraction. Their rotation doesn't skip a beat with Bedard replacing AJ Burnett. The Blue Jays get out from the 6 years, $65m remaining on Rios contract. This gives Toronto payroll flexibility to make a run at Adam Dunn or Milton Bradley, or even Teixeira depending upon their budget. The Mets get a power right hand bat with a better glove than Manny or Burrell at a cheaper rate than Manny or Burrell. Daniel Murphy is expendable, they have Wright at 3B and Delgado at 1B. Tug Hulett provides backup for Castillo and can play SS. The Mariners get a $5m break = $9m (Bedard) - $4m. They pick up a ready major leaguer and a top OF prospect. Sign Sheets to back ended 3 year, $38m contact. 2009-$5m, 2010-$16m, 2011-$17m option with $2m buyout. The 2011 option vests with 60 games started in the first two years. Trade Washburn plus $3.5m for a prospect. Sign Griffey (one year $5m, 2010 option at $9m with $1m buyout - buyout goes to $2m if Griffey gets 500 PA). LaHair, Rob Johnson begin the year in Tacoma. Wait until mid-spring training on whether to trade Mike Morse or Daniel Murphy. Overall: The Mariners get slightly faster at 1B and DH. Griffey gets on base at a .350 mark, setting up Beltre and Branyan. They pick up Fernando Martinez and Rzepczynski. Lineup (ESPN type calculations): 1. Ichiro RF ($17.1 m) 2. Griffey DH ($7.0 m) 3. Beltre 3B ($13.4 m) 4. Branyan 1B ($1.9 m) 5. Lopez 2B ($2.15 m) 6. Gutierrez CF ($450 k) 7. Murphy LF (420 k) 8. Johjima C ($8 m) 9. Betancourt SS ($2.3 m) Bench: Clement C ($420 k) Shelton 1B ($450 k) Corona IF ($400 K) Chavez LF ($2.05 m) 56.04m Johjima plays 3 days on, 2 days off. Clement takes 2 days on, 3 days off at catcher. Clement also plays one day every 5 days at DH. When Johjima plays catcher and Clement is DH, Shelton does not play 1B, Shelton is emergency catcher. If Clement is found not suitable for catcher during spring training then 1)place Griffey in LF, 2) callup Rob Johnson, 3) place Clement at DH, 4) Trade Murphy. Rotation: 1. Felix ($5m, arb) 2. Sheets ($5 m) 3. Silva ($11.25 m) 4. Morrow ($440 k) 5. Rowland-Smith ($410 K) Bullpen: CL Heilman ($2.1m, arb) Lowe ($420 K) Corcoran (420 k) Lugo ($400 K) Jimenez ($420 k) Batista ($9.5 m) Vargas ($420 K) $35.78m PAYROLL: $91.82m plus payments + $4m (Bedard/Rios) + 3.5 (Washburn) Total 25 man payroll = $99.32m |
| 69. By: stickball on 12-21-2008 18:57:53 Balentien provides Toronto with a backup for all 3 OF positions. Toronto's Travis Snyder wouldn't have regular ABs if they pickup a free agent. Snyder would get regular ABs in AAA. Murphy is not enough in exchange for Rios. Also, Bedard is worth more than Murphy and Marc Rzepczynski. Adding Cleto and Hulett allows the Mariners to extract a higher price in Martinez. |
| 70. By: acqb1424 on 12-21-2008 20:15:34 I doubt the Mets would want to give up Martinez and that they would want Cleto right back since they just traded him to us. And why would we want to trade Bedard right now? That would just be selling low on him. His value can't get any lower during the season, so might as well hold onto him and see what he does. |
| 71. By: jonbbt on 12-21-2008 20:30:03 That three team trade doesn't look like. The Blue Jays get screwed and we get a great prospect in Martinez without giving up much of anything we'll miss. |
| 72. By: stickball on 12-21-2008 20:44:46 Alright, change the three team trade to 3 Team Trade: Mets: Alex Rios (gets $5m bonus to waive no trade clause) Blue Jays: Erik Bedard, Wlad Balentien. Mariners: Daniel Murphy, Bobby Purnell, Marc Rzepczynski. The Blue Jays want to sign a quality pitcher and pitchers like Lowe cost too much. How is Rzepczynski too much, he doesn't crack the 2012 rotation predicted by Baseball America. |
| 73. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-21-2008 20:47:43 While it's certainly not one of those outlandish ideas, stickball, I'm not sure why Toronto would want to trade Rios for one year of Bedard. The Jays are already in need of more offense as it is. If they were going to trade for a SP, it'd probably be from their system and not their best hitter in Rios. |
| 74. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-21-2008 21:00:45 Couple things, If Ichiro was trade bait, NYY would certainly be a destination considered by all involved - Ichiro, Seattle and the Yankees, too. I still think the Giants are a good match, too. |
| 75. By: stickball on 12-21-2008 22:16:09 Jason, you bring up a good point. The Jays benefit by just having Wilkerson and Mench off the team. If the Jays don't go for that then try to trade Bedard for Adam Lind, Marc Rzepczynski, Brad Emaus, and $7m paid over 2 years ($3m in 2009, $3m in 2010). Adam Lind is not a high OBP moneyball type player. His BB rate was lower than 5% last year. The Jays get a quality pitcher for $3m and can go after a LH power hitter that has a higher OBP. The Mariners turn around and trade Adam Lind and Mike Wilson to the Braves for Jordan Schaffer. So instead of: Daniel Murphy, Bobby Purnell, and Marc Rzepczynski The Mariners get: Jordan Schaffer, Brad Emaus, and Marc Rzepczynski. |
| 76. By: stickball on 12-21-2008 22:16:59 Sorry, that should read $6m over 2 years. |
| 77. By: stickball on 12-21-2008 22:30:03 The Braves ranked 29th of 30 major league teams in OPS from LF, only the Nationals were worse. Schafer is similar to Wilson, except has a little less power, is 4 years younger and bats from the left side. |
| 78. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-21-2008 23:26:34 Ok, now I'm not sure why Lind and Wilson get the Braves future CF... Explain? |
| 79. By: stickball on 12-21-2008 23:42:29 Josh Anderson looks like he is going to stick as the Braves CF, which is not a position of need at the moment. Lind and Wilson provide good corner OF hitters. The Braves have Gorky Hernandez also in the wings as a future CF. After having Andruw Jones at CF, Gorky Hernandez is more of a typical centerfielder and has speed to burn. |
| 80. By: stickball on 12-22-2008 00:14:27 Adam Lind at 22 years old put up the same numbers as Jordan Schafer at 21 years old, and Lind made it all the way to the majors. Schafer is still a prospect, Lind is the developed product. I understand that Schafer is the better defender, but hitting in the minors is still hitting the minors. |
| 81. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-22-2008 00:48:31 And trading a corner outfielder for a center fielder is always a good idea, right? Even when the corner bat is fringy, albeit average or slightly above. That trade just makes no sense, dude. The Braves would not be compelled to make it, therefore the scenario you painted has major flaws. |
| 82. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-22-2008 00:50:33 furthermore, Anderson is a stop-gap until Schafer is ready. And Lind has, what, 3/4 of a year under his belt in the bigs? Let's not start calling him a proven commodity. |
| 83. By: stickball on 12-22-2008 01:04:17 Reed had the same numbers at 22 years old as Schafer at 21. Reed speed rating is 78 and Schafer is 80. You wouldn't trade a Reed with a good arm for a corner fielder like Lind? |
| 84. By: stickball on 12-22-2008 01:31:05 ok, trade Lind for a pitching prospect. |
| 85. By: brown1981 on 12-22-2008 04:44:55 First off, not to be disrespectful, but just about all of these trades mentioned are very unrealistic. Most trades mentioned are based on our team needs and not both team needs which ultimately makes the trade work. Second, i don't see the mariners signing one of the first base/ lf/dh types. The A's will inevitably sign giambi( he's from there and has played there + mutual interest. Angels will sign Dunn now that they have lost out on texiera. Bradley i see turning out how jose guillen did with the royals and they are trying to get rid of him one year in. Pat Burrell does not fit( Ibanez defense, but will have worse offense in safeco). Griffey may be better this year than last but i don't see it working here anymore. But i could see a fit with bobby abreu on a 2 yr 26 mil deal. He is not the same HR, OBP guy anymore. Lopez will stay at second due to his bat but i don't think betancourt will. I think he will head to the bench to learn fron Omar Vizquel on a 1 yr 1.9 mil deal. Here we go with my lineup: Ichiro-CF Lopez-2B Abreu-LF Branyan vs. righties/ Morse vs. Lefties- 1B Beltre-3B Clement-DH Gutierez-CF Vizquel-SS Johjima-C BENCH Corona- if util Johnson- c Chavez- OF Hulett- Bloomquist's job ROTATION: Felix Bedard Silva Morrow Washburn Pen: Lowe-CL Batista- RH Su Vargas LH Su Lugo-LOOGY Heilman- Long RP RRS- Long RP On the pitching staff side, Wash and silva stay in the rotation to start to rebuild trade value and both are expected to rebound and bot will with a stronger defese. Lowe as a closer is kindof odd to me to but heilman( the only other real option) is 9-25 in save opps career. So not good. But i do see Lowe recovering his stuff and becoming a solid closer for this team. That all i got for now and feel free to critisize the lameness but i don't see many more moves for this club. |
| 86. By: brown1981 on 12-22-2008 05:01:14 One thing i forgot to add is that with Morse's recent successes in spring last year and the venezuelan winter league this year, i would not be surprised to see him earn a regular spot at either first or in left field. Ithink he can provide 15 hr and possibly .280 hitting over a season of at bats. and that while not great would be way better than what we had last year. Add that to whatever branyan adds and we've got a pretty darn good platoon there. i think he has the possibilty of becoming a pretty solid late bloomer here. And i don't really envision shelton makin the team out of spring training. He hasn't done anything other than one great month in detroit a few years back. |
| 87. By: jgstecker on 12-22-2008 08:46:56 I'd go for a win now/re-tool option--uprgading without sacrificing too much of the future. Here's how, in 5 moves: 1. Sign Orlando Cabrera at 2 years, 16 million. YuBet was dead last among SS in UZR. This guy was #1. How's that for a swing? 2. Sign Adam Dunn at 4 years, 60 million. Defense is cheap, Power is not. If the Nats somehow end up with Tex, Dunn will come cheaper. Otherwise this is my top bid. 32 year-old Adam Dunn will be more like 32 year-old Jim Thome (minus the injuries) than he will be like 32 year-old Richie Sexson. I'll take the risk for two commodities (OBP and HR) we can't get anywhere else. 3. Sign Juan Cruz at 3 years $12m. Cruz is a powerful late inning pitcher to help ease our younger guys like Lowe and Fields into the mix. 4. Trade Betancourt, Rob Johnson, and Wlad Balentien to KC for David DeJesus, Alberto Callaspo, Ryan Shealy, and Ron Mahay. Why KC Does this deal: a. KC has historically liked Betancourt and he now comes with the Raul Ibanez Gold Medal Seal of Approval. He's also cheap for 4 more years. The Royals want to move Aviles to 2B and will consider Yuni an upgrade defensively. b. Rob Johnson is instantly their catcher of the future. c. Wlad gives them a versatile platoon player and potential replacement for Guillen in RF eventually. d. They no longer need DeJesus and seem to value Teahan's run producing potential over DeJesus'stable setting and defensive abilities. e. Callaspo is expendable because the Royals have German to back up the MIF. f. Shealy's platoon job would be assumed by the cheaper, more versatile Balentien. g. They have a handful of lefty relievers, so Mahay is expendable. h. This deal frees up $7m in 2009 payroll which they can use to fix their pitching. Why Seattle does this deal: a. DeJesus has the glove for LF and the bat for the 2 hole. He's signed cheaply for 3 years, but could become a valuable trade chip as Saunders/Halman mature as well. b. Callaspo has a strong OBP track record and can play a slightly better than average 2B/SS. If Beltre leaves via free agency, he could potentially take over 2B when Lopez shifts to 3B c. Shealy works because he's a strong defensive 1B and his right-handed bat blows Shelton and Morse away. d. Mahay is a dependable LOOGY, preventing the club from relying too heavily on unproven kids. e. Yuni is gone f. Wlad didn't really have a spot on the roster. g. Johnson was about to passed by Moore, though he would've been a comfort to have around. 5. Trade Washburn to one of the teams that gets shut out of the bidding for the mediocre FA starters. I think the Mets or Cardinals could be interested by the middle of January. Seattle may have to eat a couple million though. I'm not worried about it. The breakdown is as follows then: Rotation: 1 Felix(A1) 6.000 2 Bedard(L) 8.000 3 Silva 11.000 4 Morrow 0.500 5 Rowland-Smith(L) 0.500 Felix is a Cy Yound Contender if the M's can score some runs. Bedard, the pitching version of J.D. Drew, will step up ina contract year. Silva will hit 200 innings with an ERA around 4.5o with his new defense. Morrow will have some ups and downs. RRS will look very Washburn-esque for cheap. Depth is an issue, since after these 5, we're looking Batista, Gaby Hernandez, and Feierabend. Bullpen: Heilman(A2) 2.500 Cruz 4.000 Lowe 0.500 Corcoran 0.500 Batista 10.000 Mahay(L) 4.000 Lugo(L) 0.500 Heilman should be a solid closer. When was the last time you heard a closer whining about wanting to be a starter? Lowe is ready to turn a corner. Corcoran gets the important 7th inning groundball outs. Batista looks semi-capable in relief, but I'm keeping him in the long role so he spot start. Lugo should do well as the 2nd lefty since he won't see much action. Vargas has an option, so he'll be around in AAA. I'm not too concerned with loosing Jimenez on waivers. Lineup: RF Ichiro(L) 12.000 LF DeJesus(L) 3.600 2B Lopez 2.000 DH Dunn(L) 15.000 3B Beltre 12.000 1B Branyan(L) 1.400 CF Gutierrez 0.500 C Clement(L) 0.500 SS Cabrera 8.000 I love the 1-2 of Ichiro and DeJesus. I believe in the Lopez we saw in the 2nd half of '08. The bottom three may be among the best in the league. Clement is the catcher against righties, Joh starts against lefties. I might give Clement a few extra starts at 1B or DH as well, but he has to catch regularly this year. Its time to tell what we have in him. Bench: Johjima 8.000 Callaspo(S) 0.500 Shealy 0.700 Chavez(L) 2.100 Callaspo can push Lopez to 1B to create an all-defense IF, but Shealy's no slouch. Chavez won't get much PT, which is fine. So, altogether, that totals $114.3m by my count. |
| 88. By: Edman on 12-22-2008 10:46:17 Having read through all the GM-wannabe posts, I find it interesting. One thing is clear, it's easy to have the belief that anything is possible. Few ever REALLY address why an opposing GM would be willing to make the deals they propose. The approach is often that the would, just because. No deals get done, just because. The ideas are mostly creative, just not realistic. I support the idea of signing Griffey and taking a chance on Baldini. They're low risk. It amazes me how some have given up on Yuni. He's still relatively young and has a reasonable contract. Willing to take on the risks associated with other unproven and potentially LESS productive than Yuni. And, unwilling to see if Yuni can turn his career around. Yet, most posts contain taking on someone other teams question marks, because....well....they are what's already here. I'm not for change, for the sake of change. Change for the sake of growth makes sense. Why don't I play the game? Because, I don't need to play the game. I'm willing to let JZ prove his worth. He's already shown me something that Bavasi didn't, that he plans many moves ahead. He knew the timing required, when trading Putz, Green and Valbuenna. Valbuenna was the critical element, IMHO. He knew what was available in the Rule 5 draft, and felt comfortable that Corona could do an ample job as a replacement. He made a deal with KC to acquire Lugo, to replace Green and give him another lefthanded arm. THAT to me is the sign of a thinker. A good chess player who plans several moves ahead. Will Jack be right? That's a matter of fate. All he can do is make some good choices, the players must perform. For me, there is no hurry to make a rash decision. If Yuni has accepted that he needs to do more, why not give him a chance to prove it? If YOU don't see value in him, what makes you think other GMs are going to jump at the opportunity to grab him? You don't think they scout as well? You think other teams are waiting to be fleeced and be willing to take on money. I'll let JZ do the work and see what happens. I don't know what Jason's trying to convey. But, I for one find it tiring to read unrealistic trade proposals. Nobody's gonna make a trade, just because Seattle wants to. That's why 95% of the trade proposals never see the light of day. Finding a deal that benefits both sides on paper, is extemely hard. Go to it, Jack, make us proud. |
| 89. By: okori on 12-22-2008 10:57:06 |
| 90. By: okori on 12-22-2008 10:57:24 RF Ichiro LF Jeremy Hermedia 3B Adrian Beltre 1B Prince Fielder DH Adam Dunn 2B Jose Lopez CF Franklin Guteriez C Jeff Clement SS Yunsikey Betencourt SP Erik Bedard SP Felix Hernandez SP Brandon Morrow SP Aaron Heilman SP Carlos Silva RP Sean White RP Cesar Jimenez RP Jon Huber RP Mark Lowe RP Roy Corcoran RP Eddie Guadardo CP Miguel Batista C Jaime Burke IF Russell Branyon IF Reggie Corona OF Endy Chavez Trades: Prince Fielder for Wladimer Balentin, Ryan-Rowland Smith and Jarrod Washburn Afraid we might have to give up Adam Moore in this deal (instead of Balentin). This isn't ideal. Fielder's an impact bat though, worth the sacrifice. He's also about to receive a payday in arbitration. There's rumors that Mil doesn't want to spend that money. Moore would answer a need at C for the Brew Crew. Balentin (if traded) provides a potential replacement for COrey Hart + a power source. Smith is more of a long-term answer at the back of their rotation. Washburn gives them a warm body in the rotation. Mil targeted Wash his free agent year, and may look to bring home the local boy. Rob Johnson and Ryan Feierbend for Jeremy Hermedia- Hermedia, a 24 year old talented OF fills an OF spot for the M's. A deal for Rob Johnson was talked about earlier this off-season. Perhaps adding Feierbend to the package would sweeten the pot. Carlos Silva for ???? from the NY Mets- If Silva's tradeable, it might be to the NY Mets. A good friend to both Johan Santana and Luis Castillo, there's been talk of acquiring the "healthy" RHP. The Met's have been looking at secondary pitchers for their fifth spot in their rotation. Silba may fit the mold. Kenji Johjima for ??? from the Boston RedSox- The RedSox need a C capable to start the majority of games in Fenway Park. Johjima may be able to handle the load. When hitting, his bat packs a bit of punch. That didn't translate well in Safeco. Johjima may have more luck aiming at the Green Monster. The Redsox are making inroads in the Japanese market. They hurt their credibility in that market by signing Junichi Tazawa. Johjima adds one more marketable Japanese name to the team. Signings: Adam Dunn- More because the Fielder deal may take some time. The M's are in need of LHP, and need to acquire an impact bat. Dunn's been on the free agent market for a long time. Offer him a market deal, and he can be had. (A potential Fielder deal doesn't affect the Dunn negotiations. This is similar to the Mets strategy. If you can acquire one, you've filled a hole, but why not acquire two if possible). This team has 0 legitimate power sources from the left side in their organization. When you find yourself in that hole, you need to acquire proven hitters, and then address the lack of power in the draft. Eddie Guadardo- Ensures Heilman won't be a closer, which will make him happy. Ensures Morrow won't be a closer, which will make everyone happy.Eddie adds closing experience to the M's. More importantly, he's a bullpen presence. He's helped these pitchers mature in the past. There's 0 reason he can't do it again. Here's guessing he'd jump at the chance to return to a team without a proven closer. |
| 91. By: okori on 12-22-2008 11:25:41 Couple of things: Forgot about Jose Lugo. I'd keep any Rule 5 guy ready. Jimenez goes down in that case, and potentially gets converted back into a starter. We've lost 2 young lefties in my deals. J Vargas replaces one. Jimenez could replace the other. I like the idea of acquiring D McPhearson. Matches the M's philosophy of targeting low risk LH power bats. Potentially D McPhearson & Robert Andino from FLA for ?? This deal wouldn't cost us a lot. Andino was rumored in Pitt deals earlier this off-season. The guy's a clutch hitter, and is supposed to be a + defensively. Aren't Pie, R Cedeno and R Hill out of options? I'd look at any or all of them. I'm not adverse to R Cedeno and R Andino fighting it out for the SS job. T Hulett doesn't have the range for short. I worked for the Orioles Harriston's rookie year. He can't play SS either, and his bat played far better in Cinn/Texas then it will here. He also have 0 instincts in the OF. I haven't seen him at 2B in awhile, but he appeared to be fine there. Not sure he's worth potentially blocking a young player though. If FLA doesn't like the Hermedia deal, I give M Sauders a shot. In that case, R Johnson gets the backup C spot, and Feierbend competes with Silva for the last SP role. Please also are looking at Saito and Cordero for minor league contracts. I'm all for acquiring any low $$ arm. |
| 92. By: okori on 12-22-2008 11:27:43 I also really like Denny Batista. The guy's a huge power arm, and is an impact pitcher at the minor league level. Talk to him. See if he wants to be converted back into a starter. Take a shot. Okay, I'm done. |
| 93. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-22-2008 12:12:59 Bautista is close to re-upping with Pitt, and his command is awful. He's not an impact pitcher in any league. |
| 94. By: okori on 12-22-2008 12:23:42 You're not offering a guy a minor-league deal if he doesn't have issues. Followed this guy since he was in KC. Like him as a SP. Last time I saw him in Tac (with Col Springs), he not only blew away our hitters, he was over powering. I saw the like on MLB Trade Rumors that said he's headed back to Pitt. If that's a major league deal, I'd pass. Can't be afraid to gamble on these types of pitchers though for no money. |
| 95. By: jonbbt on 12-22-2008 14:00:55 Prince Fielder isn't coming for nothing. We can't get him for scraps. It would take Felix or at least Brandon Morrow I would think. Not two back-end starters and a risky outfielder. Gotta give to get (except in trades with the Royals and Astros) ;-) |
| 96. By: stickball on 12-22-2008 14:14:26 Revised plan with comments taken into account. [b]Trade Bedard for Adam Lind, Marc Rzepczynski, Brad Emaus and $3m.[/b] Bedard is a canuck, and the Jays would have a better chance of him signing an extension than most teams. The Jays are looking to get a quality starter but starters like Lowe are going for the $16 million dollar area. This gives Toronto payroll flexibility to make a run at Adam Dunn or Milton Bradley, or even Teixeira depending upon their budget. Adam Lind is not a high OBP moneyball type player. His BB rate was lower than 5% last year. The Jays get a quality pitcher with huge potential for $7m and can go after a LH power hitter that has a higher OBP. The Mariners turn around and trade Adam Lind to the Braves for a PTBNL. Atlanta was 29th of 30 major league teams in OPS from LF and needs to upgrade the outfield. [b]Sign Sheets to 2 year contract up to $24m ($9m base, with $1m extra each for !50, 175, and 200 innings) with option for 3rd year.[/b] A 2011-$16m option with $4.0m buyout. The option vests with 60 games started in the first two years. Sign Griffey (one year $4.5m, 2010 option at $9.5m with $0.5m buyout, $1m incentives for every 250 PA). Trade Washburn plus $2.5m to Arizona for prospects (thanks NEOMF). LaHair, Rob Johnson begin the year in Tacoma. Wait until mid-spring training on whether to trade Mike Morse. Overall: The Mariners get slightly faster at 1B and DH. Griffey gets on base at a .350 mark, setting up Beltre and Branyan. They pick up Emaus and Rzepczynski. Lineup (ESPN type calculations): 1. Ichiro RF ($17.1 m) 2. Griffey DH ($5.0 m) 3. Beltre 3B ($13.4 m) 4. Branyan 1B ($1.9 m) 5. Lopez 2B ($2.15 m) 6. Gutierrez CF ($450 k) 7. Balentien LF (420 k) 8. Johjima C ($8 m) 9. Betancourt SS ($2.3 m) Bench: Clement C ($420 k) Shelton 1B ($450 k) Corona IF ($400 K) Chavez LF ($2.05 m) 54.04m Johjima plays 3 days on, 2 days off. Clement takes 2 days on, 3 days off at catcher. Clement also plays one day every 5 days at DH. When Johjima plays catcher and Clement is DH, Shelton does not play 1B, Shelton is emergency catcher. If Clement is found not suitable for catcher during spring training then 1)place Griffey in LF, 2) callup Rob Johnson, 3) place Clement at DH, 4) Shelton starts the year in AAA, 5) Trade Chavez, 6) Morse makes the bench. Rotation: 1. Felix ($5m, arb) 2. Sheets ($9 m) 3. Silva ($12.25 m) 4. Morrow ($440 k) 5. Rowland-Smith ($410 K) Bullpen: CL Heilman ($2.1m, arb) Lowe ($420 K) Corcoran (420 k) Lugo ($400 K) Jimenez ($420 k) Batista ($9.5 m) Vargas ($420 k) $40.78m PAYROLL: $94.82m plus payments + $2m (Bedard) + $2.5m (Washburn) Total 25 man payroll = $99.32m Let Hulett and Corona battle it out for utility player. If Corona wins trade Hulett. If Hulett wins see if they can work a trade with the Yankees to allow Corona to be sent down. |
| 97. By: malcontent1 on 12-22-2008 14:17:09 Revising 33 to make sure my post doesn't get deleted Looking to reload and hoping for a good luck year, I would trade Jarrod Washburn (+3 mil) and Jose Lopez to the Dodgers for Blake DeWitt. The Dodgers do it because having Washburn gives them a fairly reliable pitcher at low cost and no commitment that allows James McDonald to garner more experience in AAA, while Jose Lopez is more likely to come close to replicating Jeff Kent's production next year than Blake DeWitt. The fact that Lopez is signed cheaply through 2011 with a fairly inexpensive option for 2012 is also helpful. The Mariners place DeWitt at 2nd, he was rated highly at 3rd last year according to +/-, PMR, and UZR, so he should be an asset there defensively. I'm wagering that he continues to improve offensively as he's supposed to have excellent bat speed & control. He also provides a replacement at 3rd if Beltre doesn't resign. Sign Ken Griffey Jr. to a 5 mil contract with incentives of 1 mil each for 600 PA, .300 BA, 25 HR, and 30 homeruns, and an extra 500k for an all star appearance, with an 9 mil team option for next year. If he does all that, then you've probably got a .300/.390/.520 hitter for 9.5 mil, anything less (and I admit the likelihood that it will be) and he's progressively cheaper. He plays about half the games at DH (Clement taking the other half), and 60-70 in left field (with Endy finishing those games) and rests against lefties often. My theory is that he's not as terrible a defender when he's DH or resting more than half the season. UZR/150 had him at -14.4 (in 250 innings) for the White Sox when he spent a decent amount of time as DH for them, even with the bad knee. Griffey makes sense because almost no matter which players are acquired, for the Mariners to win next season will take a lot of luck. You might as well make a short term deal with Griffey for the purposes of nostalgia while your other outfield prospects develop. I'd like to try sending Wladimir Balentien to the Rockies for Hector Gomez, I'm not positive Balentien would be enough because Colorado has a full outfield of less-than-30 year old capable players, but I think it's possible since Gomez's value has to be pretty low after missing all of last season. For Colorado, Balentien could maximize his power potential in Mile High, and could end up being a quality middle of the order bat for them, the Mariners, assuming they acquire Griffey for a year and that Saunders/Halman develop, no longer really need Balentien and could use some depth at SS. Lineup: Ichiro RF ($16m) Blake DeWitt 2B ($500k) Beltre 3B ($12m) Griffey LF/DH ($7-8m) I'm guessing he makes at least a couple of the incentives. Branyan/Shelton 1B ($2m) Clement DH/C ($500k) Gutierrez CF ($500k) Johjima C ($7.5m) Yuniesky Betancourt SS ($2m) Rotation: Hernandez ($2m) Bedard ($7m) Silva ($11m) Morrow (400k) Rowland-Smith ($400k) Bullpen : Heilman - Closer ($3m?) Lowe Set-up ($500k) Batista Middle($9m) Corcoran Middle ($500k) Lugo LOOGY($500k) Vargas Long ($500k) Thomas - Middle/Long($500k) Bench: Corona 2b/SS/3b($500k) Johnson C ($500k) Chavez - OF ($1.8m) Braynan/Shelton - 1B/3B/DH ($2m) Also make an attempt to extend Beltre for 3 years @ 13 mil + bonuses for Gold Gloves, All Star appearances, Silver Sluggers, and MVP awards. Attempt to sign Felix to something like 6 years-$60 mil. The team goes into an "If everything goes right" situation for 2009: If Griffey looks like 2007 or 2005 Griffey, if Beltre is healthy and continues to improve his offense and patience, if Franklin Gutierrez does basically the same thing, if everybody in the rotation improves from last year, if Aaron Heilman becomes JJ Putz 'redux', if Betancourt is decent at short again. But all that has already been said. Basically, the Mariners come out with an extra shortstop and 5 years of a theoretically better defender and left handed 2nd Baseman. Estimated Cost~$88 million, +3 Million to LA. I was going to suggest trading Kenji Johjima (+8 mil) and Mike Carp to the BoSox for Lars Anderson (Anderson = Adam Dunn+BA at 20) but it seems they are at a similar place catching-wise as the Mariners; having an offensive/no defense catcher (George Kattaras) and a light offense/great defense catcher (Dusty Brown) sitting in the minors while both are essentially ML ready. I'm wondering, why is it being said that they're looking for a catcher at all? |
| 98. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-22-2008 14:52:52 I think jgstecker's plan is the one I like the most. It's the best combination of reality, winning now and paying gross attention to the future. |
| 99. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-22-2008 15:07:45 Why in the world would the Red Sox trade Anderson for Johjima, cash and Carp? Anderson is a potential star, and the cash does nothing for them, since Johjima isn't good. If he could play, it might make sense. |
| 100. By: Edman on 12-22-2008 16:21:24 Jason, I have to disagree. jgstecker's plan is far from reality. First, and foremost, KC would make a trade to free up money to spend on pitching? Since when? They could trade those four in a package that brings back some decent pitching.....AND not have to spend that $7 million. The idea that we'd get THREE guys who hit over .300 last year, while making Betancourt the featured player being sent back to them, is seriously flawed. Wlad and Rob simply aren't good enough prospects for KC to do anything but laugh at a proposal like that. I don't want to be callas, but not even Bavasi would have been that stupid.....or desparate. To get that package of players from Kansas City, the deal would have to include Brandon Morrow. They might have to sweeten their side a bit, but there is no way Betancourt is THAT facinating to them. Just because they were interested at one time, doesn't mean they've lost all baseball sense. Honestly, I don't think anyone has presented a realistic plan......but rather idealistic plans.....where Seattle gives up little, and gets back a lot. Trades are hard to pull off, and it's just no feasible that teams are dying to make Seattle better. |
| 101. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-22-2008 16:32:28 jgstecker's plan is the closest. I didn't say it was ideal. Come on, edman, you're already here stirring up BS. PEople are having fun and all you bring to the table is disagreement and reasons why everyone else's comments are wrong, even though you didn't present a plan yourself? Whatever, dude. You freaking bore me to no end. |
| 102. By: Uncle Al on 12-22-2008 16:34:22 Jason I really like your 25 man roster as Chavez is already gone and the budget sits at $103M which includes the Prorated Signing Bonuses of $5.5M and Contingency Fund Estimate of $3.5M. The beauty of this roster is that they could go with this in 2009 without doing anything more. I've got to believe there will be a couple more trades and getting rid of Wasburn's $11M salary is one of them. The three things that should/could happen are: 1. Pick up a big LH bat for LF and send Balentien back to AAA or trade him. 2. Pick up a big LH bat for 1B and send Johnson back to AAA or trade him. Branyan moves to DH and Johjima takes Johnson's spot on the Bench. 3. Pick up a big LH bat for DH and send Johnson back to AAA or trade him. Johjima takes Johnson's spot on the Bench. Even this deal for FA Jerry Hairston for 2B and moving Lopez to 1B would accomplish something and cheaply. It sends Johnson back to AAA or gets him traded. Moves Branyan to DH and Johjima takes over Johnson's spot on the Bench. Although you dont get the big LH bat for 1B, it takes care of the 1B and DH situations and leaves you only with the need for a big LH bat in LF. The idea is to get through 2009 best as possible and not screw up 2010 in the process. Picking up Hairston makes some sense. |
| 103. By: mykillmagnum on 12-22-2008 17:06:55 first off, edman you are a bummer, the point of this is too have fun, sorry you are too cool for school. obviously you are the christmas grinch. i agree with jason, i think jgsteckers plan is one of the most realistic ones. i mean obviously the mariners arent going to trade there whole team away, but i think that the mariners for sure need to make some moves. players i would like to see leave are washburn betancourt bedard beltre and whatever prospects that need to help out in trades. i would love to watch the ms win some games and be exciting to watch. i would like to trade beltre and cash to min for delmon young. i think its obvious minnesota needs a 3rd baseman, and we need a left fielder. leftfield has always been a huge hole for the ms, even with raul for the last few years. young (if he got his act together) could end up being a good solid player, someone who could man that position for years to come. i think a fresh start for him could benefit everyone including himself. we all know he has the talent, just needs to get his off the field issues in order. this deal makes sense for minnesota because not only are they recieving cash in this deal, they have every opprtunity to resign beltre, or get draft picks for him. minnesota is always competing in the central and this might be the piece they so desprately need. i would trade bedard and balentien to the yankees for cano,hughes, and montero/ or gardner. im not sure if the ms would have to add any more prospects in this deal, im sure they would, but the yankees seem to want to sign everyone right now and why not get rid of bedard, i dont think he fits the ms plans whether he plays good or not. he wont re sign here and im tired of watching him pitch, complain, pitch, complain, and complain. baletien gives the yankees a 4th outfielder with some pop.the ms would get some younger players with upside, and cano which i would then trade. i would trade cano, washburn, thomas and morse for james mchdonald and juan pierre. this deal gets us a good starting, young pitcher who could start in triple a and be up in the majors by july. the dodgers who have wanted cano, would get another starting pitcher who eats innings and has a bigger contract, and thats why the ms would take on pierre for the last year of his. gives a 4th outfielder with great speed. i would trade rob johnson, betancourt, chavez, and fierband to mil for rickie weeks and mat gamel. this trade is for the future cause i would send weeks to tacoma to move to to center field. (not sure though how many opitons he has though) milwuakee could keep hardy and move betancourt to 2nd, have there future catcher, who is really behind 3 other catchers right now (clement, johjima, and moore) and another inning eater pitcher who isnt going to be in seattle this year. i would sign turnbow 1yr/ 2 mil deal filled with inning insentives and save insentives sign griffey 2yr 8 mil deal filled with games played and rbi/hr insentives sign hudson 3 yr 15 mil sign sheets 2 yr 10 mil filled with inning insentives sign vizquel 1 yr 2 mil sign josh fields move jose lopez to 3rd base line up ichiro rf hudson 2b griffey dh young lf branyan 1b vs righties/ shelton vs lefties lopez 3b clement c guiterrez cf vizquel ss bench johjima pierre corona shelton starting pitchers felix sheets morrow rowland smith silva bullpen turnbow clos/setup fields clos/setup lowe jimenez heilman bautista cochran sorry i didnt put in all the money people would make, but i suck at math. i would start, mcdonald, montero/gardner (which ever one we got) hughes, weeks, and gamel all in tacoma. hopefully with this team would could succeed and wouldnt see any of them till september and next year. |
| 104. By: Edman on 12-22-2008 17:27:16 I have no problem with people having fun attempting to be a GM. I've done it many times. The problem is, it builds expectations that somehow JZ could make fantasies come true. IMHO, if you're going to play the game, then also try to keep in mind realistic modivation for another team to make a deal. JZ has done just fine, so far. I'm not going to try and outsmart him. The farm system isn't deep enough that he can trade away some of his future. And, outside of Hernandez, Lopez and Beltre, he doesn't have a lot of veterans with any real (or perceived) value to deal. Honestly, I don't know how he can play a winning hand holding a pair of threes. As much as I like the Putz deal, it could very well be a disaster too. I hope not. But, he's taking a gamble. I'm fine with that. The problem with this game is that some take it too seriously. They think that because someone "reasoned" out a deal, that it's possible. All I've done is taken the view from the other side. I wasn't insultive. But, I did have questions. |
| 105. By: Uncle Al on 12-22-2008 18:23:56 Signing Hairston gains much roster flexibility also since Beltre is needed and probably won't be traded until the trade deadline if at all. Same thing with Bedard. With Lopez at 1B, Hairston at 2B, and Branyan at DH, Lopez can be moved to 3B, Branyan moved to 1B, Johjima moved to DH, and Johnson called up if Beltre is traded at the trade deadline. If for 2010, Carp or a FA also figure into the mix at 1B/DH. The players most likely to figure into a trade this year for a big LH bat for LF are Washburn, Chavez, Balentien, and Johnson. The more I look at this possible Hairston signing, the more I think it needs to be done. There's only $63M plus whatever Heilman costs that is spent for 2010 so a few more million for Hairston still keeps them under $70M which gives them a ton of money to spend to upgrade the team. |
| 106. By: Dixoner22 on 12-22-2008 18:25:25 A revised 25 man roster. Better than mine previously posted. Lineup Ichiro Suzuki RF ($18,000,000) Jose Lopez 2B ($1,750,000) Adrian Beltre 3B ($13,400,000) Milton Bradley LF ($7,000,000) Orlando Cabrera SS($8,000,000) Ken Griffey Jr. DH ($7,000,000) Franklin Gutierrez CF ($500,000) Billy Butler 1B ($400,000) Jeff Clement C ($400,000) / Kenji Johjima C ($8,000,000) Bench Jeff Clement C ($400,000) / Kenji Johjima C ($8,000,000) Endy Chaves OF ($1,800,000) Mike Morse UT ($400,000) Russell Branyan 3B/1B ($1,900,000) Rotation Felix Hernandez RH ($2,000,000) Erik Bedard LH ($8,000,000) Brandon Morrow RH ($400,000) Jarrod Washburn LH ($9,850,000) Carlos Silva RH ($12,000,000) Bullpen Aaron Heilman CL ($1,200,000) Miguel Batista RH SU($9,000,000) Cesar Jimenez LH SU ($400,000) Roy Corcoran RH MD ($400,000) Jose Lugo LH MD ($400,000) Ryan Rowland-Smith LH LR ($400,000) R A Dickey RH LR ($400,000) Sign Milton Bradley to a three year $24,000,000 (1st Yr 7M, 2nd Yr 8M, 3rd Yr 9M) contract. Milton Bradley partially replaces much needed run production lost in an 09 Seattle Mariners without Raul Ibanez. Bradley also adds a high on base percentage which should boost run support. Sign Ken Griffey Jr. to a two year $15,000,000 (1st Yr 7M, 2nd Yr 8M) contract incentives based on plate appearances and power numbers up to $2M for the 09 season and $3M for the second year of the contract, making the contract worth $20M. Although his power numbers and average are much less than what we saw the last time Griffey wore a Seattle uniform, he still draws plenty of walks and has a nice on base percentage. Hopefully the DH position helps him to stay healthy and increases his hitting statistics. Not only will this add more LH Power, but fans want to see Griffey back in Seattle and he would put fans in the seats at Safeco. Sign Orlando Cabrera to a three year 30M (1st Yr 8M, 2nd Yr 10M, 3rd Yr 12M) Contract. Cabrera would be a significant improvement in consistently hitting and defending the SS position. Trade Yuniesky Betancourt to the Kansas City Royals for Billy Butler. The Royals already have a ton of 1st base/DH Guys and could use another option for the middle infield. The Ms get a young major league ready 1B with a little pop in his bat. Team Projected Salary: $113,000,000 If Griffey meets statistics for Incentives: $115,000,000 |
| 107. By: stickball on 12-22-2008 19:13:24 Edman, I agree. It would be less interesting if there was no one to stir the pot. The trade with KC wouldn't work. Perhaps my trades should have been for major leaguers where you can under pay, instead of prospects where .... :-) |
| 108. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-22-2008 19:41:28 Is Orlando Cabrera worth 8 million a year??? Seems a little steep. Also, if we could get Bradley at 3/24, they better be writing that contract up right NOW! |
| 109. By: Lailoken on 12-22-2008 23:54:20 Hey Jason, Could you respond a bit to my post? It's cool if you think it's too much crazyness. I respect what you do & would enjoy to hear/read what you think. Lailoken |
| 110. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-23-2008 00:18:47 Lailoken, While those moves might take the best GM in sports 5 years to make, here are my thoughts... I think the first two trades are each one of those "we aren't convinced we're getting enough" on the Dodgers and Marlins parts. The talent and finances might be somewhat close in either direction, but that doesn't mean two clubs are a match. And that goes for most trades. Trade No. 3 with Baltimore is a bunch of middling talents outside Brian Roberts. And in those kinds of trades, it doesn't work because Baltimore isn't getting enough in return for the best player in the trade. I don't see any way Baltimore makes this trade. In trade four, the M's are getting robbed blind. In Trade five, neither team really benefits. Those trades don't happen as often as some thing. One team's problems for another... it's very, very rare. In Trade six, I don't think either club accomplished anything, same with trade seven. In Trade eight, the M's are unlikely yo receive the clearance from the league to pay such a high percentage of Miguel Batista's salary in a one-for-one trade like that. I don't know what trade nine accomplishes for either club. Signing Griffey for three years is insane. I'd love to sign Johnson, though I think he'd prefer to be on a contender in what could be his final year. Vizquel is toast. Moreso than even Griffey. And that's far too many minor league deals... there are only so many roster spots in the minor leagues. Saito will get a big-league contract, Fontenot is a reserve infielder starting for a team without a better option in Chicago. He's nothing more than that in Seattle. I like your idea of going younger, players with upside that are on the cheap and under club control for 1-6 more years, but I think you took it to the extreme. |
| 111. By: 56Wabashaw on 12-23-2008 01:22:59 This is an interesting read. Thanks everyone. First off, I don't think this team is close so I would have my eye on next years free agents that include Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Ankiel, and Brian Roberts. I think the identity of the team should be pitching and defense, which they've obviously already started to do. I would love to trade away Washburn, but there are plenty of mediocre pitchers still available so my guess is that it's tough to find takers. If they do trade him it won't be until late January which makes it hard to spend his salary. To compete, this team still needs turnover in the middle infield, 1B, and LF. Maybe Carp is the guy in 2009 so I leave that alone. LF is a nice spot for a free agent next year and maybe they get lucky with a prospect (Halman). The middle infied is harder with not as many answers or prospects. I don't know much about Corona, but hopefully he can steal time/push Betancourt. I like the idea of bringing in either Angel Berroa or Alex Cora, but maybe Corona already fills that need. I would like to get Rickie Weeks who is maybe undervalued. Here's my trade. Aaron Heilman & Cesar Jimenez for Rickie Weeks. Milwaukie would like closer/bullpen help so I think they'd be open to this.The Mariners have a more pressing need at 2B than the bullpen. For free agency I would sign Ken Griffey - 2 years $8 mil up to $12 mil. What can I say. I'm sentimental, and he can still hit. Also, it seems like I'm in the minority on this site, but I don't think Clement can catch and I don't think Morrow can start though he would be a great closer. I would still try to catch Clement once a week just to keep his trade value up if he starts to hit. I was disappointed by Balentien last year so he doesn't get LF. If he earns it great. I think there should be a 5 man bench that plays consistently. With all the travel the players need the rest. The SP should be good enough to carry 6 relievers. Lineup 1. Ichiro, RF 2. Weeks, 2B 3. Griffey, DH 4. Beltre, 3B 5. Lopez, 1B 6. Gutierrez, CF 7. Chavez, LF 8. Johjima, C 9. Betancourt, SS Bench 1. Branyan, 1B/DH 2. Clement, DH/C 3. Corona, SS/2B 4. Balentien, OF 5. Johnson, C Rotation 1. The King 2. Bedard 3. Silva 4. Washburn 5. Rowland Smith Bullpen 1. Morrow, CL 2. Lowe 3. Corcoran 4. Lugo 5. Vargas 6. Batista I think this team would be lucky to get 80 wins, but with in season trade assets like Bedard, Beltre, and Washburn and money coming available for 2010, I think it sets up nicely for a 2011 playoff run. |
| 112. By: rocketdawg31 on 12-23-2008 03:38:40 I've got to say it's been hell of fun to see your guys' rosters- from the crazy ones to the really excellent, methodically-thought-out ones. I'll take a crack at it. I'll try not to make too much of a "War And Peace"-sized post. And I'll label it a 're-tool'. I essentially think the M's have a couple of tweaking moves left in them through both one free-agency move and two trades, no big splashes on any of them. I trade LHP Jarrod Washburn to the Minnesota Twins for high A-ball LHP Spencer Steedley. Coupled with $3 million in cash to help de-fray the cost of Washburn's contract. Steedley was the Twinkie's 25th-round draft pick in 2007; 6'2" 190, b. 5-31-85. A classic finesse lefty with a tick-above-average velocity, he attended U. of North Carolina and was drafted as a first baseman. He went 6-7 in two A-ball stops with a combined 3.84 ERA. He had impressive numbers as a reliever for low-A Beloit, going 5-3 with a 2.14 ERA and striking out 59 in 46.1 frames. That work earned him a promotion to high-A Ft. Myers, where the warm-fuzzies came to a screeching halt- 1-4 in 15 games (4 starts)and a 6.59 ERA. He held teams to a .246 average and struck out 78 in 73 IP overall. Why the Mariners make the trade: 1. I'm tempted to say something like "Well, duh". But here's my reasoning: Of all the albatross contracts they have in 2009, they need at least Washburn off the team in order for the younger guns to realistically have that full shot to flourish. 2. No one involved with the Mariners wants to see what Washburn can do with another 150+ IP for this team, defensive upgrades or not. 3. While the Twins won't give up much to get Wash,Steedley might just do a Ryan Franklin and over-achieve up and up the ladder. And as an organization, the M's don't shy away from this type of pitcher. Why the Twins make the trade: 1. It costs them very little in terms of prospects. Steedley has probably overachieved so far in his brief career, but he's not on any top 10 prospects list and isn't being counted on as a big piece of their plan- if at all. 2. They shell out $6-7 million for a year of experienced back-end rotation help. At today's prices for ANY starting pitching, that isn't terrible. And probably cost-and-risk-comparable to other options still out there. 3. There's many worse rotations (albeit mostly in the NL)than one that goes Liriano-Baker-Blackburn-Slowey-Washburn. Which leaves us with this kind of pitching staff: SPR: Hernandez- $5 million Bedard- $8 million Silva- $11 million Morrow- $500,000 Rowland-Smith- $500,000 BP: Heilman- closer, $2.5 mil. Lowe- set-up, 8th-inning spc.; $750,000 Rincon- situational lefty-hitter spc.; $1.5 mil. Lugo- LH set-up; $500,000 Corcoran- situational RH; $500,000 Vargas- spot-starter; LH long-reliever; $500,000 Batista- spot-starter; RH long-reliever; $10 mil. Including the $3 million thrown to the Twins for the long-awaited departure of Washrag, this group costs $43.75 million. SIDENOTE: I do NOT trade guys like Bedard, Johjima, Betancourt or Beltre- at least until near the trading dealine- simply because in the strange world of baseball, what counts most is what you did last year. And last year, with the exception of Beltre, all the possibly valuable veteran chips took a nosedive in value. To re-coup at least part of that value, they have to play for us...and we have to hope for some kind of performance that'll spike up that value. That approach will have its drawback: Trading Beltre in mid-season, what we can demand in return will be lessened by the fact that the team getting him gets him only for half-a-year. But I still think what we'll get then will be favorable to what we could get for him right now, at this moment. Which brings me to position players. And Trade #2. 2B Jose Lopez to the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for 2B Adam Kennedy and RHP Blake Hawksworth. I should note that this is not a trade that is solely my invention, but one that- when I heard it as an idea- made utter sense to me. Why Seattle will make the trade: 1. In Kennedy, they'll be getting a guy with a +9 or +10 UZR (defense) rating. Lopez, by comparison, is at -5. Kennedy does not have anything close to a premium bat. You give up offense, most assuredly. You do however get a 2-hole guy in the line-up that'll be a vacuum at the second sack. The runs that will be saved by Kennedy's presence out there will outweigh the loss of offense in Lopez. 2. In the acquisitions of Gutierrez and Chavez for Putz, it seems that the organization is valuing defense more than what the previous regime did. Which makes me deliriously happy. Having Kennedy could make for an extremely strong middle, if Betancourt loses 20 pounds and regains his range. 3. Lopez is 25 and has a high-maintenance body. He also has next to no willpower when it comes to proper nutrition (reminds me a li'l of me). He's coming into the years where it'll get harder and harder to shed excess weight. By selling him now while value is high, the M's avoid a higher-than-wanted chance that they get stuck with Carlos Baerga, Part 2. 4. Hawksworth. Not so long ago, this guy was considered one of the better pitchers in the Redbirds system, but seems to have been overtaken by others while he dealt with injuries. When I first heard of him, he threw 93-95 with hard action on secondary stuff (I've no idea how hard he throws now as I haven't found a creditable scouting '08 report on him). He's fairly local, attended Bellevue CC (by way of BC). He's cooling his heels in AAA, and may just need a change of scenery. Best case scenario is he combines with Shawn Kelley to possibly give us right-handed help in the bullpen when/if injuries happen, or in 2010 when other people on the club have moved on. Besides..."Hawksworth"? The name totally plays in this town. Why the Cardinals make this trade: 1. Higher-than-wanted risk...but possibly high-return on Lopez. Having a very strong clubhouse presence like Albert Pujols might be the kick in the patootie I think Lopez has needed/still needs. If he flames out, then it's on to the next middle-infield prospect for the Cards. 2. Kennedy has been disenchanted with the Cardinals, and the Cards are looking for more offense wherever they can find it. In Lopez, they get a guy who almost assuredly will upgrade what they get from the 2-hole in the offense. And Hawksworth doesn't fit any long-range plan of theirs that I can see. Which brings up an Opening Day lineup of: (L)= left-handed bat (S)= switch-hitter 1. Ichiro, rf (L) 2. Kennedy, 2b (L) 3. Beltre, 3b 4. Branyan (L)/Shelton, 1b 5. Gutierrez, cf 6. Johjima, c 7. Clement, dh (L) 8. Balentien, lf 9. Betancourt, ss BENCH: Chavez- OF (L); Hulett- IF (L); Morse- IF. Far from an intimidating bench, but enough lefty hitters on the roster (6 out of 13 position-players) to play match-up games and switch things around as they're needed. I haven't forgotten about Reegie Corona and being a Rule Fiver, I know he'll get every chance to stick....but I think Morse beats him out and we keep Corona by making a trade, like with R.A. Dickey last year. I think Lugo has the better shot of staying...but who knows, they could both surprise me, or both flub. The cost for this group I estimate at: Ichiro ($18 mil.); Beltre ($13.5 mil.); Kennedy ($2.5 mil.); Chavez ($1.8 mil.); Branyan ($1.9 mil.); Betancourt ($2 mil.); Johjima ($8 mil.); Gutierrez ($750,000) and Clement, Morse, Hulett, Shelton and Balentien at $500,000 apiece. Along with what the pitching staff costs you, the grand total comes up to $93.7 million dollars. I've got no real illusions on the talent of this roster, on paper it looks like 75-78 wins to me if things go reasonably well...but it's a team that takes a good hard look at internal possibilities and (by several players leaving after 2009 is in the books) sets up to get more pieces for 2010 and beyond. |
| 113. By: FatBat on 12-23-2008 13:39:30 #87's post Is interesting. Maybe with a few tweaks, some could be resonable. I still Back my post, #37 (all post ending with 7) The line up is young talented and competitive! The Trade for Fielder may not be enough but look at the players...Lopez replaces a lot of offense they loose in Fielder and alows them to play Nelson. Second saves them money. Heilman gives them a cheap starter with still some up side. Washburn does not. Second half of the trade RoB Johnson? To make it happen you might have to change Johnson to Moore. Don't like it as much but I would still do it. Getting Fielder gives us a real RBI guy for the middle of our line-up (you don't win unless you score more than the other guy) Sign him to three years buying up his two year arbitration and one free agent year. You have proven talent in Fielder, and I still think Rob Johnson could be a Dan Wilson type catcher for us, .265 12 to 15 hr. and great defense. Clement ends up being a DH in my book, but a good DH. The guy can hit (just not yet) SO... in posting this does anyone see any hole in the trade or? any fault in trying to aquire Fielder? In closing our team is a 100mil team even at 90mil there is no reason we have to dump dump dump this year! Come on peolpe, we have the resorces as long as we keep our stud young pitching I.E. Morrow, Aumont, Felix ect. others can be moved as long as its also thinking about the next year as well. We should have the mind set of competing every year or you risk killing our fan base and drawing less the 2mil a year to our stadium and then we end up with a 50mil payroll. ouch!!! I know I'm going to catch some flak. So luts hear it. Shake n' Bake people! |
| 114. By: John_S on 12-23-2008 14:48:02 Hi Jason, I'm sorry a little off topic.... ESPN says Texiera is going to the Yanks. With the Yanks signing CC and Tex how would that work in regards to compensation? Would the Yanks give up both their first and second rounders? |
| 115. By: safecochatter on 12-23-2008 15:26:21 cashman was quoted yesterday(ny post) as saying... "we currently have no offers out on anyone" if this was true,with offers said to be 160 to 185 million for tex,it would push the yankee off season shopping spree to over 400 million. money doesn't talk... it swears!! |
| 116. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-23-2008 15:39:12 Yes, the Yankees will be giving Milwaukee their second round pick for Sabathia and the Angels their first round pick for Teixeria. What's awesome about this is, I still don't think the Yankees are the best team in that division. |
| 117. By: safecochatter on 12-23-2008 15:57:10 on my roster(#42)i went back and forth with morrow.he really is the best closer the m's got.but he had some awesome starts last year and i really want him in my rotation. at this point,i don't think he can go wire to wire in the rotation with a serious jump in innings pitched. the chance for a break down would see a dramatic increase. my idea would be to put him in the closer roll till the 09 mariner team shakes out. with the goal of morrow replacing the least effective starter late may or early june. i know this is a little outside the box,but it's another problem that bavasi has left to captain jack. what's your thoughts on morrow jason? you think he can go wire to wire in the rotation? |
| 118. By: Slurve on 12-23-2008 16:21:30 hmm thanks for the scouting report on Morrow JAC a FB/CB/SP would make Morrow a very awesome starter but why would they make Morrow ditch his splitter and try to take a CU wouldn't that kinda screw him up a little? |
| 119. By: Dixoner22 on 12-23-2008 21:43:50 The M's resigned catcher Jamie Burke to a minor league contract just weeks after declining to offer a contract. There has been talk of the Mariners keeping three catchers on the 25 man roster (Johhima, Clement, Johnson) but with Burke back in the picture does anyone think a Rob Johnson for Jeremy Hermida trade is possible? |
| 120. By: Wishhiker on 12-23-2008 22:51:48 At this point the team seems to most need a high OPS bat with a good glove for LF. I like the idea of Hermida, but the Marlins are looking for cheap young players (SP's under team control or Corner OF with + Defense and Speed.) Unless they considered Chavez to fit as a stopgap and got a few prospects (or the M's were trading Morrow or Gutierrez +) I don't see how it matches up. I think Johnson + RR-S seems to be the most sense I can find in a deal for Hermida. RR-S isn't the young fireballer that the Marlins would prefer and Johnson not the ideal C either but I think it fits value wise and for what the Marlins are looking for. Correct me if I'm wrong. However the M's needs of this year don't suggest the same thing as the long term needs when you consider that Gutierrez was just acquired for CF and is under team control (through 2012?), Ichiro is locked up through 2012 and Halman and Saunders are in the upper levels looking like they are not only close but worth waiting for. Don't forget we just got Carrera who last year posted a .737 OPS in a high A Pitchers league. The dearth of quality LF's in Seattle may be coming to a close without taking a chunk of the depth out of 2 such important positions as SP and C. FastForward to one year down the road and the GM is now likely wasting energy trying to get rid of Hermida or Gutierrez when the scenario was foreseeable before trading for Hermida. Yes we have Adam Moore and Rob Johnson in the upper levels but Clement is still a huge question mark to stay behind the plate and we may need BOTH Moore and Johnson in 2 years. Everyone seems to prefer the team trading away one of the large-contract SP's. Washburn and Bedard are FA's after this year. If Silva gets traded and Washburn and Bedard walk after the season I'm going to miss RR-S, Feierabend or anyone else that's close but gets traded without the foresight to see we will need arms like them in only one year. It seems to me that the OF is the place the team needs the least addition of young depth in moving forward so I'm looking to add a young player to other positions first. Still want a bat and Glove for LF but it seems like a 1-2 year commitment would be best. With the addition of Carp 1B looks better than it did going into the offseason. For this reason I'm much less interested in guys like Nelson, Butler and Fielder. The 4 places that they don't have anyone with some promise less than 2 years away are SS, 2B, 3B and SP. That's where I would want to add some AA+ talent in moves that I'm giving up commodities. I'm not finding anything appealing that looks like a good fit for both teams. The best options seem to be signing a LF/DH like Baldelli to a 1-2 year deal or maybe Griffey for the same. I'd give the start of the season to let the new coaching and management time to see Lopez, Balentien, Betancourt and Clement up close and attempt to help with their varying issues before ditching them and prospects for players who have as many question marks or are already on the downhill slope. I'd be trying to lock up Beltre for another 3 or 4 years, Felix for 5 and keeping an eye on the advancement of prospects and overall positional depth of this organization (and others) to gear up for the right time to make these moves which is after most of the players that have been traded 3+ times in previous comments have had a chance to raise their value. This coaching staff was put together with player development in mind and it looks like that should be allowed before getting rid of most of it. Beltre is the only one that I've seen traded more than once that seems to have a better chance to lower his value this season than to raise it. Washburn, Silva, Lopez, Betancourt, Balentien, Bedard, Johnson and almost everyone else on the team has a pretty good chance of raising their value in the coming months. Team failure helped inspire the entire roster to under-produce last year on a similar level to how they over-produced in 2007. Most M's players looked better than they are in '07? Most M's players looked worse than they are in '08! Selling low is a bad idea that I'm not going to contemplate any more. Sign Baldelli/Griffey to 1/$5M + Team option/incentives then see what the coaching staff can do with the holdovers as the deadline approaches. Make the moves you can with better understanding of the team because this will hopefully be the last mid-season in awhile that they're sellers. I really want to add more high OPS (especially OBP) position players, but it can wait another 6-7 months (expecting most of the return to be 1-2 years away if acquired in July) because I can't see the M's being a 90 win team in '09 without losing draft picks, MiL depth and potential value in players I might be giving up on/trading too early. I'd want to give some time for the new FO personnel to see what they have before moving too much of it as well. Moves in the spring and possibly when other teams have injuries spring up as well. 1. Ichiro RF ($17.1M) 2. Beltre 3B ($13.4M) 3. Baldelli/Griffey DH ($5.0M) 4. Branyan 1B ($1.9M) 5. Lopez 2B ($2.15M) 6. Clement C ($400K) 7. Balentien LF ($400K) 8. Betancourt SS ($2.3M) 9. Gutierrez CF ($400K) Bench: Johjima C ($8M) Shelton 1B/DH ($450K) Corona IF ($400K) Chavez OF ($2.05M) Johnson C ($400K) Rotation: Hernandez ($1M) Bedard ($7M) Washburn ($10M) Morrow ($400K) Silva ($11M) Bullpen : Harder to decide before ST... Heilman Closer ($1.2M) Corcoran Set-up ($400K) Lowe Set-up ($400K) Batista - Set-up ($9.0M) Lugo - Perfect name for LOOGY ($400K) Vargas Long ($400K) And I count $95.7 Million. |
| 121. By: rocketdawg31 on 12-23-2008 23:40:51 There are a few former beloved Mariners still looking for work in 2009: Griffey, Jr.; Randy Johnson; Omar Vizquel being the most prominent. I think we should avoid every single one of them like the plague. |
| 122. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-24-2008 18:43:19 Wish, The Marlins asked for Adam Moore, Jose Lopez and Ryan Rowland-Smith for Hermida and a B-level spect. If that helps you figure things out some more. |
| 123. By: bilbo on 12-24-2008 18:50:26 Do the Marlins thing Hermida is really THAT good or were they just "Fish-ing"? (sorry) |
| 124. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-24-2008 19:50:04 I think Hermida is going to be that good. Florida doesn't need to deal him, though, so why would they do it unless they were semi-bowled over? I'd trade any two of those three for Hermida alone. |
| 125. By: Wishhiker on 12-25-2008 18:11:35 I could see trading that level of players for a player like Hermida. I can't see trading as much close depth as 2B, C and SP for a OFer when OF seems to be the place that the M's have the most depth in the upper levels. There's more overall depth in the upper levels at OF now than at 2B, 3B, SS, 1B and SP combined. Catcher is a position of depth even though I'd prefer they hold on to all of them. 2B is a huge problem if the only move made is Lopez + for Hermida. If Hermida is moving to SS I'd trade all 3 of them, but I'm not worried about the M's OF in the coming few years. |
| 126. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-25-2008 23:43:31 122.. Wow, really? That is pretty steep. Especially since Lopez pretty much out-hit Hermida last year while being a second baseman. They want two quality guys on top of him? I'm a Hermida fan but for a guy with some injury history and one who just got done sporting a 91 OPS+... They must be in no real hurry to deal him. No wonder the talks went nowhere. |
| 127. By: Jerry on 12-26-2008 11:04:51 That deal for Hermida really depends on what the definition of "B-Level" prospect is. If we define that as a second tier prospect - very good but not elite - then that package isn't bad at all. RRS, Lopez, and Moore for Hermida and...say.... Logan Morrison or Matt Dominguez is a great deal. I would do that for sure. If the B-level guy is someone like Ryan Tucker or Anibal Sanchez, then it is a lot more difficult. If you switch Moore for Rob Johnson, then a lesser prospect like Tucker would be OK. How about Johnson and Lopez for Hermida? I would do that. Or RRS and Johnson. The Marlins need ML-ready catching bad, so Johnson could really help them. However, he just doesn't have the same upside as Moore. I would love to see the M's trade Lopez, Moore, and RRS for Hermida, Morrison, and Robert Andino, but that is probably a pipe dream. |
| 128. By: CrustyJuggler on 12-28-2008 21:51:22 Definitely would give up Lopez, RRS and Moore if it involved Morrison or Dominguez. Doubt they are considered "B-Level" though. |
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