| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 06-03-2011 |
This week's edition of Draft Weekly is a brief one, but full of data.
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Comments
The following 66 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: acqb1424 on 06-03-2011 08:17:31 Interesting, things seem to have returned to previous expectations from about the half way point of the season. Jason, have the M's, or any other team, got a chance to look at Rendon's medicals? I can't wait for Monday!!!!! |
| 2. By: acqb1424 on 06-03-2011 08:52:02 Sorry for the consecutive posts, but just saw on BA that the M's have resigned Tony Butler. Too bad he never panned out, does he still have a chance at becoming anything interesting or is he just minor league depth at this point? |
| 3. By: CrustyJuggler on 06-03-2011 09:34:50 Not a Josh Bell fan? |
| 4. By: Jon O on 06-03-2011 09:53:54 JAC - I know you previously mentioned Derek Fisher's name as a possibility in RD 2, but will bonus bonus demands scare the M's away or is there a chance they pony up for a power hitting OF if he is still there? |
| 5. By: safecochatter on 06-03-2011 10:12:28 I think the m's will take Rendon if the meds check out. Rendon is leading Rice in several batting catagories. It's not like he's gonna hit 40 hr playing 1/2 his games at Safeco anyway. If Rendon can play a solid 3b and lead the m's in doubles,works for me.. |
| 6. By: Shawnuel on 06-03-2011 10:50:56 Surprised to see that you think Boston will pop a catcher at 19 when one will almost certainly be there at 26. Also surprised to see Susac ahead of Swihart. Is that because of ETA? Are the Sox a team that would actually draft for need ahead of best player available? |
| 7. By: dewey on 06-03-2011 11:12:59 Jason who is rhe best avaiable player? Is the best available player also considered the player with the most upside? If so it sounds like Starling is a no brainer from eberything im reading and hearing is that correct? |
| 8. By: csiems on 06-03-2011 11:16:45 Jason, regarding the second player on Seattle's draft board (first on yours) who bumped Lindor down. I would love to hear the reasoning behind that move, has Lindor's stock fallen or has your new number one answered some questions? |
| 9. By: baseballman on 06-03-2011 11:33:46 dewey, quite a lot of factors go into making a list of the best players available, different teams have different philosophies. I think the top two factors would be upside and risk among others. Starling may have the most upside, but say there is a lot more risk of him developing than someone like Lindor, Lindor could be the best player on a teams board. |
| 10. By: Edman on 06-03-2011 11:43:08 Best news is that Seattle is going to get a very good player. The talent at the top is almost ten deep. They all rate out very similarly, which is quite rare. Typically, the first two or three choices are obvious. And, it's very likely you'll see two or more of those projected to go in the top ten, drop down to the lower 2/3 of the draft. Teams rate players differently than baseball analysts. You may even see a couple surprises in the first round. Best news is that both Jack and Tom have stated that they will pick the best available players, regardless of team needs. That's the right way to do it. Stick to your board and don't be tempted away from it. |
| 11. By: frzgg on 06-03-2011 12:07:07 This is going to be an unpredictable draft. If the Pirates take Cole #1, I think for the most part the top 10 will be fairly predictable. But if the Pirates take Rendon, it's going to change the whole top 10 completely. Starling or Lindor could go #2, and then it would throw the next 6 picks off. Could you do another mock draft with Rendon going #1 just to see how different it would be? I'd guess the top 5 would be 1. Rendon, 2. Starling, 3. Hultzen, 4. Bundy, 5. Cole? |
| 12. By: baseballfan on 06-03-2011 12:23:23 Every GM and Director of scouting I've heard always say they're taking the BPA regardless of team needs,so I usually disregard such statements. Unless there are questions about his medicals I can't see Seattle passing on Rendon: -He's a very good talent, it's not like passing on Verlander to pick Bush -As highly as we think of Jack, he's still an employee looking for a contract extension and a high school player is not going to help him get an extension - we are all selfish to an extent -Seattle has to start thinking about Felix's next contract now - As Halladay & Greinke have shown, a team can't wait until the last year to entice the franchise player to stay. -Add Rendon to the young mix and with the best 1-2 punch in Felix & Pineda and Seattle is a contender. If Seattle passes on Rendon, then I will assume there is a problem with his medicals. I just don't see,Seattle taking a high school player with the opportunity they have now with Felix/Pineda/Ackley/Smoak/Franklin. |
| 13. By: FWBrodie on 06-03-2011 12:50:26 Off Topic: Jason, just perusing through some minor league numbers and noticed James Jones has not looked good at all statistically speaking. What's his story so far this year? I seem to remember there being some talk that he may fly up through the system this season, but from what I can tell he's just been hacking his brains out with about zero success. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-03-2011 13:03:49 Josh Bell is not a top 10 talent, no. baseballfan, Not taking a prep player for that reason is drafting for need. They won't do that. ETA has some value, but if the smoke clears and Starling or Lindor are the best players still, they will be the pick. |
| 15. By: frzgg on 06-03-2011 13:34:15 After reading the Bubba Starling article on ESPN, do you think he slips a bit out of the possibility of going the college route? In one of the deepest drafts ever, you cannot take a player at #2 that might decide to go the college route regardless of the money. |
| 16. By: CrustyJuggler on 06-03-2011 13:41:51 Agreed on Bell but was surprised he didn't make the first round in your mock. |
| 17. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-03-2011 13:46:34 Crusty, He sent out a letter to clubs telling teams not to draft him. I think most will adhere to that. Doesn't mean he won't sign, but it will take a team willing to give him top 15 money in the sandwich round to get him to pass on college. On Starling, you don't draft him unless his advisor, Scott Boras, gives indications that he's willing to sign for what the club is willing to pay. |
| 18. By: dewey on 06-03-2011 14:02:44 #9 Baseballman the question as stated was directed towards Jason i believe he is the only one that i asked.You dont care what i think and i really dont care what you think so but out please.I will be very interested if Tom and Jack stay to there word taking the best player our taking a 3b from Rice with a torn rotater cuff!~ |
| 19. By: rjfrik on 06-03-2011 14:06:37 Wow, this draft is so deep this year. Literally I would love to have any of the top 6 guys. Any one and I would be elated. Here is my board: Lindor Bundy Rendon Starling Cole Hultzen |
| 20. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-03-2011 14:14:33 frzgg, If Rendon went one, the only thing that would change is Cole. Instead of 1, he might go 4 or 5. Won't get past KC I don't think. |
| 21. By: frzgg on 06-03-2011 14:25:25 Frankie Piliere of Scout is saying the 'buzz around the draft' right now is Francisco Lindor falling out of the top 15. Thats the absolute first I've heard of that. Any thoughts? |
| 22. By: eknpdx on 06-03-2011 14:32:08 Hey JAC, how would you rank Hultzen and Cole against David Price coming out of the draft? |
| 23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-03-2011 14:41:31 For me, best player is a combination of upside, probability and ETA. Starling wins out for me. He could be a 30 homer center fielder. |
| 24. By: Edman on 06-03-2011 14:42:38 Hey dewey, here's an idea. If you don't want others to comment on your posts, send Jason an email. It's rather pathetic to whine about someone commenting on what you've posted on a public forum. BTW, when did Rendon get diagnosed with a torn rotator cuff? Did I miss something? |
| 25. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-03-2011 15:00:54 Cole is right there with Price, probably ahead of him. Hultzen isn't an ace. frzgg, We're going to hear some of that this late because now dollar figures are coming out. Lindor isn't going to be cheap. |
| 26. By: Edman on 06-03-2011 15:14:28 If Rendon (actually Boras) doesn't release his medical reports, would that be enough to drop him out of the top five? I would think that in a draft so deep, that teams would conclude that there is something that he's trying to hide. I certainly would. If the draft wasn't so deep, perhaps teams might take the risk. But when you have other options with considerable upside, you would have to consider it. IMO, they should have been released by last Monday. |
| 27. By: The Great Pumpkin on 06-03-2011 15:18:56 What would the ETA be for players like Starling and Lindor? |
| 28. By: vertigoman on 06-03-2011 15:22:56 "BTW, when did Rendon get diagnosed with a torn rotator cuff? Did I miss something?" I may be wrong but I think that came from JAC actually. |
| 29. By: baseballman on 06-03-2011 15:48:56 Cole right there with Price? Wow. I really don't think we can go wrong with any of the top guys at #2. Jack and Tom know their stuff and we have a very good chance to end up with the best player in this draft. Which ever player they pick, I will assume is the best player. If it's Rendon, I'm excited just for the ETA factor alone. But I'm just as excited for any player. |
| 30. By: Edman on 06-03-2011 15:55:47 Thanks, vertigoman. Must have been a non-surgical repair. |
| 31. By: docsmith on 06-03-2011 16:15:11 Found an article in the Baltimore sun from yesterday quoting the coach from Rice saying it was a muscle strain near the rotator cuff. |
| 32. By: Slack on 06-03-2011 16:36:05 A muscle strain doesn't sound too bad. If thats what it really is, then I would love for the M's to take him at #2 if he's there. |
| 33. By: Thingray on 06-03-2011 16:38:33 Jason, Are the clubs allowed unrestricted access to the player's agents to discuss possible signing terms prior to the draft? |
| 34. By: Edman on 06-03-2011 16:42:51 I still would want a medical report on Rendon, before I'd draft in #1 or #2. If it's only a strain, why hide it? |
| 35. By: eknpdx on 06-03-2011 17:32:38 Watching Rice play S. Miss right now, and that shoulder injury has not affected Rendon's bat speed from what I can tell. |
| 36. By: dawgncarolina on 06-03-2011 17:58:55 "I still would want a medical report on Rendon, before I'd draft in #1 or #2. If it's only a strain, why hide it?" With Boras it's all about control. He's not worried about how high Rendon goes, he's worried about who drafts him. He wants to control what team selects Rendon, so he controls the medical information to do so. You can bet whoever drafts Rendon will be a team that got the real scoop. |
| 37. By: 01v-dubs on 06-03-2011 18:03:18 While i would be very happy with Rendon or Cole because of their ETA's and probability of being valuable contributors on a big league club, I can't help but hope the M's take Starling. The fact that he's mentioned in the same sentence as Josh Hamilton is more then enough for me, it would also add a little spice to the Angles rivalry because they would have Trout and we would have Starling. Either way we're going to get a great player on Monday. I can't wait. |
| 38. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-03-2011 18:48:51 I have heard today that the medical reports on Rendon don't really say much -- they leave a gray area, which some clubs are fine with, some are not. |
| 39. By: Blowgun7 on 06-03-2011 20:28:32 Rendon or Starling. I'll be thrilled with either. I'm actually at the point where I'm leaning towards Starling.. He's just a total freak.. A big part of me pulling for Rendon was that I didn't think we could compete at the big league level without him.. Just looking at our offensive roster and how he'd be that missing piece at 3B and in the middle of the order.. Based on what the M's have shown the first third of this season, I think with a solid FA acquisition and maybe a clever trade, we could have the offense to match our pitching and compete as early as next year.. Maybe we don't need Rendon to save our offense.. Starling to me would be the pick as I sit here today |
| 40. By: rjfrik on 06-03-2011 21:08:32 Honestly at this point I don't care what position player out of Rendon, Lindor or Starling we grab. All three, in my opinion are gong to be stars. It reminds me of the 2005 draft and Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Upton or Jay Bruce, only exception is Lindor would stay at SS where Upton moved to RF. If any one of those players were on the M's we would be ecstatic. It truly doesn't matter at this point. |
| 41. By: Edman on 06-03-2011 21:10:04 dawg.....if you are implying that Boras has leaked information only to clubs he wants his client to go to, then I hope baseball gets proof of collusion, fines him and bans him from working as a player's agent. If agents expect the owners to deal fairly, then they should do the same. I wouldn't put it past Boras. Hell, he'd sell his own baby into slavery if there was enough money in it. The M's need to be right about this pick. If they aren't comfortable with the medical reports, then they should pass on selecting Rendon. He's not miles away from the talent of other top five picks. On the flip side of the coin, owners have to be just as wary about what Boras tells them, and doesn't tell them. If I was an owner, and Boras gave me the inside skinny on Rendon, would I really trust that he isn't injured? That sword cuts both ways. If Rendon's arm was falling off, you can bet that Boras would do his best to tell GMs that he's throwing from 400 ft at 100 MPH without strain. |
| 42. By: rjfrik on 06-03-2011 21:11:46 Honestly at this point I don't care what position player out of Rendon, Lindor or Starling we grab. All three, in my opinion are gong to be stars. It reminds me of the 2005 draft and Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Upton or Jay Bruce, only exception is Lindor would stay at SS where Upton moved to RF. If any one of those players were on the M's we would be ecstatic. It truly doesn't matter at this point. |
| 43. By: rjfrik on 06-03-2011 21:14:25 That draft was amazing when you look at it. Only 2 busts (Townsend and Clement) out of the top 12 and 6 legit stars (Upton, Bruce, Braun, Zimmerman, Tulo and McCutcheon), with 4 more that are solid everyday players (Maybin, Romero, Pelfrey and Gordon)...simply amazing. |
| 44. By: dawgncarolina on 06-03-2011 21:15:17 Or simply devastating if you're a Mariners fan... |
| 45. By: Edman on 06-03-2011 21:17:55 The great thing about this season, so far, is that free agents are going to look at the M's a little differently. A big bat or two might believe enough in the pitching, a kid like Ackley, and see that the M's aren't that far away from being good. That's probably the biggest thing that may come out of this year. Making it easier to sell Seattle as a prospective home. |
| 46. By: mazono on 06-03-2011 23:24:00 Ok 2 questions folks: You are on the Clock! 2nd pick. 1. Rendon was just picked infront of you. Who do you pick? 2. Same situation but Hulten was picked infront of you. |
| 47. By: dawgncarolina on 06-03-2011 23:47:42 1. Cole. Or Bundy. Be totally fine with either. 2. Rendon. Definitely my top guy. My wish list would look something like this: Rendon Cole Bundy Starling Bauer Lindor Hultzen |
| 48. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-04-2011 01:50:57 There's actually nothing in the collusion language that prevents advisers from legally leaking information to try and deter clubs from drafting a player they represent. It's simply not collusion. |
| 49. By: shemberry on 06-04-2011 09:15:00 Dejan Kovacevic of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is reporting that the Pirates will take Cole first overall. Jason, does that mean it's Rendon or Starling for us? |
| 50. By: sportsguy on 06-04-2011 10:28:19 Does anyone else realize we keep talking about a guy (Rendon) who hasn't even really played the field this year. Think how silly that is for a minute. Would be the biggest mistake in the draft. Our guys know what they are doing. Lindor, Lindor, Lindor... |
| 51. By: TXMariner on 06-04-2011 10:34:03 Starling would be my first choice if the M's can get some assurances that he would sign. If not then Rendon. |
| 52. By: dewey on 06-04-2011 12:11:27 Off subject Jason does this years Mariners team remind you of last years Padres? Padres had the star hitter and the great bullpen we have the great rotation? Kind of similar in my eyes iw ish we could hit i know we had 2 real good games but we our at the bottum in htting.Whats your thoughts Jason? |
| 53. By: sexymarinersfan on 06-04-2011 12:19:03 IF, we do land Rendon, then it'll be nice to have an impact hitter on the cusp of the big leagues. It would be a relatively easy replacement for Figgins once his contract expires. Plus, if Chone can build any value whatsoever between now and then, it'd be a lot easier to trade him off for some other pieces or see if anyone is willing to eat some of that salary. Just don't send him back to the Angels. I have a feeling that once he leaves Seattle, he'll go back to his old ways and putting up numbers closer to his career lines. |
| 54. By: Mackie on 06-04-2011 12:25:44 Agreed with Sportsguy about Rendon, that drafting Rendon could be a mistake. If the guy isn't healthy enough to play the field, could the M's basically be drafting a DH? I think it would be better to not draft someone who could be damaged goods. And unless they feel Starling is the best guy on the board, the signability thing with him could be something to avoid. If it comes down to Lindor, Bundy, Cole or Bauer I'd go with Bauer or Lindor. Bauer has had an excellent college career, while his teammate Cole has slipped a bit this year; and if he and Bundy are judged to be similar talents, he could well be closer to the majors than Bundy. But if Lindor is judged to be a one-of-a-kind talent that only comes along every few years, that's how I'd go. |
| 55. By: dawgncarolina on 06-04-2011 13:11:12 Could drafting Rendon be a mistake? Yes. But so could drafting Starling, or drafting Cole, or drafting Bauer, or drafting Lindor, etc. If you want safe, pick Hultzen. If you want to maximize value, Rendon is a very legitimate option. Keith Law still has him as the #2 prospect in the draft, and many other evaluators have him #1 or #2. As many have noted, if he was in the minors he would have taken a couple months off to rest the shoulder and been fine, but since he's in college and they play to win rather than develop prospects, he's been sucking it up and DH'ing. No matter who we pick we're probably not going to sign them until the August deadline. That will give Rendon plenty of time to rest up. Plus hit tool, average to plus power and plus to plus power is hard to fine. Combine that with phenomenal plate discipline, and you have a great prospect. Yes he's not without risk, but that makes him like most everyone else in the draft. He also has fantastic reward potential. I absolutely hope he's our guy. |
| 56. By: dawgncarolina on 06-04-2011 13:13:25 that should say "plus to plus plus defense", not power. sorry about that. |
| 57. By: rocketdawg31 on 06-04-2011 13:42:07 Yes he's not without risk, but that makes him like most everyone else in the draft. He also has fantastic reward potential. I agree with you, dawgncarolina. To me, most signs point to Rendon now. And the potential rewards are worth warranting this risk. There is no slam-dunk, ever. Not even picks like Strasburg and Harper come without "Yes, but"s. Every guy selected is by definition a roll of the dice. Back when I was a teenager, Todd Van Poppel of Texas was the best thing to come out of the Heartland since the pocket Bible. You should've heard his hype coming into the draft. And he wound up being a big-leaguer....as a serviceable middle-reliever. There's just no knowing until they play games in your system. If Cole's gone as 1-1, and Starling is not giving me a signal that he'll sign if I draft him? I tab the guy whose rewards are neck-and-neck with Starling, IMHO- Rendon. And don't look back. "Recovering" in June can become "Much Improved Condition" in August. And Boras negotiations take awhile, it's almost a given now. Monday's going to be a nice day for us all, I don't even need a weather report to think that one. |
| 58. By: Ayala Faction on 06-04-2011 15:10:28 Jason, Law has stated numerous times that it would be pretty dumb for the M's to take Lindor over Rendon. Have you changed your view on thinking the opposite or have you conceded more to where Law is? |
| 59. By: sportsguy on 06-04-2011 15:10:34 Doesn't it make sense for a team not picking 1-2 to send information out to the world that will get their guy to them...We are better than that. |
| 60. By: sportsguy on 06-04-2011 15:12:39 Law? |
| 61. By: FWBrodie on 06-04-2011 15:18:42 Keith. |
| 62. By: Ayala Faction on 06-04-2011 15:23:11 Sorry, I mean do you still feel the opposite of Law, or have you adjusted your stance more in favor of taking Rendon over Lindor? |
| 63. By: sportsguy on 06-04-2011 15:26:44 I'll put my money on Jason to get it right when the smoke clears. |
| 64. By: StandinPat on 06-04-2011 20:10:57 "Agreed with Sportsguy about Rendon, that drafting Rendon could be a mistake. If the guy isn't healthy enough to play the field, could the M's basically be drafting a DH?" Players get injured, it happens, and current injuries don't necessarily affect future abilities. I love how some people want to go on and on about Rendon DH'ing for most of the season is some sort of death sentence for him, even though two years ago we drafted a guy as an OF, later switching him to 2B, even though he was coming off Tommy John surgery and had to DH and play 1B for the bulk of his final year. |
| 65. By: Mackie on 06-05-2011 00:35:16 Voicing a legit concern about a guy's injury history is not "going on and on", and it is maybe the second time I have mentioned it. I do agree with you when you say "current injuries don't necessarily affect future abilities"... but by your saying that, I am assuming you also believe they can affect future abilities? Tommy John surgery, ankle injuries... to me, those are red flags. But hey, the guy is young, and he can probably recover fully. If he was my age? LOL! It wouldn't happen! 8-) I tend to look at things from the perspective of my own bod, and I'm 30+ years older than Rendon. If he is the number two pick, I will question it but I won't be ticked or upset by it because he is a good talent. But if he isn't the number two pick, I also won't be unhappy because there is lots of talent in the draft! The only thing that will make me unhappy is if they use that #2 pick on a dud, and after all, we won't know if that's the case for a few years. |
| 66. By: StandinPat on 06-05-2011 18:07:49 "Voicing a legit concern about a guy's injury history is not "going on and on", and it is maybe the second time I have mentioned it." I was referring to people on general, not just specifically you. That may only have been the second time you've mentioned it, but it's about the bagillionth time it's been brought up in general. "but by your saying that, I am assuming you also believe they can affect future abilities?" Is this a real question? Ofcourse they can, hence why I said "don't necessarily." "Tommy John surgery, ankle injuries... to me, those are red flags." And again, Dustin Ackley, who no one had a problem with drafting, was coming back from "Tommy John surgery" and played OF, the position he was drafted for, only a handful of times that year. And that's my crux of my point. People seem to be getting way bent out of shape over Rendon's "shoulder strain," as if he is now and forever damaged goods. Given the plethora of players who have suffered injuries and subsequently come back and been great, I'd suggest that might be jumping the gun quite a bit. |
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