| By Mike Craven | ![]() | By 02-16-2009 |
We've read about Stephen Strasburg, Aaron Crow, Grant Green and other top prospects for this June's First Year Player's Draft. But even in a very shallow pool of talent, there are more intriguing talents that could become relevant, both in Seattle and for most other clubs with a pick somewhere in the top 50.| Friday Night Lights |
| 1. By: slick on 02-16-2009 04:24:44 UNC Rice and LSU look to be the favorites, but watch out for Miami and Louisville. Store this name away for the 2010 draft Chris Hernandez 11-0 2.72 ERA as a Freshman last year 188Ks in 113IP. Miami has pitching depth even though they lost some good bats. Two players as far as the 2009 draft go that I am going to be following this year are Tanner Scheppers, and Chris Dominguez if Scheppers can prove to be healthy and sport the 14Ks per 9IP as last year he should get alot of attention in this years draft, also in a draft with not a lot of power bats Dominguez the 6'4 245lbs third baseman for Louisville hit 21 homers. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-16-2009 04:43:38 We'll get into the rest of the draft prospects as they begin to perform, but I'm really curious to see what Ryan Jackson, Ryan Wheeler and Robbie Shields have without relying solely on numbers. Jackson and Shields are shortstops - there are those who think Shields>Green - and Wheeler is a corner infielder who has the best power bat in the draft. Scheppers is certainly an interesting cat this year. He has no leverage as a college senior and has injury questions to answer. Dominguez is apparently a 1B/DH - not a pro 3B - and has questions about plate coverage, conditioning and overall approach. I haven't seen the numbers, but according to the Dodgers amateur scouting coordinator, he isn't adept at working the count and doesn't walk much. May very well not even be a first day pick unless something drastically changes. And Hernandez didn't fan 188 in 113 ip - 117 I think it was. He's good. I wish he was more projectable physically, he's barely 6 feet tall, but he has good control, commands his fastball. I haven't seen him yet. Sadly, Shields is going to be tough to find on TV. |
| 3. By: Gustafson on 02-16-2009 11:10:52 Jason, Sounds like you and scouts you talk to are not sold on Grant Green at the #2... If the draft were today (and of course there is an entire college season to change today's projection) and you were the M's GM, who would you take #2 if Strasburg were off the board? |
| 4. By: The Great Pumpkin on 02-16-2009 11:18:55 Almost everything I read has us taking Alex White at #2. |
| 5. By: Gustafson on 02-16-2009 11:49:03 I've read that Ackley is a bat-control savant but lacks some power and a defensive position. I kinda hope Ackley shows more power and plays a great centerfield (with his newly-repaired elbow) and makes it an easy pick. Everyone who says "take Green because SS is a premium position" assumes he stays at SS. From what Jason says, it sounds like he may move to 3B anyway... |
| 6. By: John_S on 02-16-2009 11:50:19 What are your thoughts on Kyle Gibson? From what I have read, he's got a chance to be the best pitcher in this class, but he needs to add more velocity (currently sits @ 92). |
| 7. By: rjscotty_22 on 02-16-2009 15:01:13 Hey Jason. All of this talk about the up-coming draft, i have a question about the future draft prospects. I have a buddy that is a soph. at the University of Washington that should get significant playing time this year. He was drafted in the 37th round of the 2007 draft by the twins, his name is Julien Pollard. I was wondering if you have ever heard of or seen him, if so, what do his tools look like and how high does his ceiling look? |
| 8. By: stranger on 02-16-2009 15:05:20 How about identifying the players whose pictures you post. Such as, who is this No. 14? And how do we know if it is important that a hitter "can go the other way" when you don't tell us whether he is right-handed or left-handed or even a switch hitter. Please do not throw out abbreviations without first telling what those abbreviations mean. A real journalist will write out a name or designation then use initials thereafter. Such as Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) then FBI from then on out. |
| 9. By: StandinPat on 02-16-2009 15:26:26 Let me help out you with a few simple observations stranger. First off, I'd imagine that the picture is of Heathcott, considering he is the only player mentions in that portion of the article....see those page breaks after every section? Second, its always important to be able to use the whole field. The degree of its importance varies based on a number of factors, ie RH at Safeco, but overall being able to use the whole field will usually lead to being a better hitter. On top of which, most hitters that have any power will show it to their pull side first. If they show power the other way, it simply shows they have more than just pull power. More HR's and all that jazz, again equally important for both Lefties and Righties. But going back to the original assumption that the player in the picture is the only player mentioned in that portion of the article, in this instance we'd be talking about a RH hitter with power the other way. Lastly, I'm not sure what abbreviations you are alluding too, cause they were all pretty standard baseball terms, that any "real journalist" would use in everyday writing without defining first. Go find anything on ESPN where the author mentions ERA, and I'll bet you a dollar to a donut they don't spell it out for you. They just pretty much assume that if you are reading an baseball article about pitching, that who know what the hell ERA is.....or if nothing else, know how to use google. |
| 10. By: JD Kickastro on 02-16-2009 15:48:14 #8 - That's prep OF Todd Glaesmann. OF - Outfielder (FYI(For Your Information)) |
| 11. By: baseballman on 02-16-2009 16:21:50 RE 8: LSU-Louisiana State University ACL-Anterior Cruciate Ligament A.J.-Allan James No.-Number VMI-Virginia Military Institute ERA-Earned Run Average D.J.-David John BYU-Brigham Young University USC-University of Southern California Hope that clears everything up for you, if I missed any, just come back with a more condescending tone and I will fill you in! Oh and Heathcott bats R (Right) since you didnt pick up on it! |
| 12. By: ThePaul on 02-16-2009 17:05:26 -Gustafson Statistically speaking, Green and one the players he's most compared to - Longoria, had comparable sophmore years with Green being a little bit more well-known. They both really exploded on the Cape Cod scene with Longoria winning the MVP. Longoria blossomed into the best position player in his class with an outstanding junior year, which similar to 2009, was classified as being weak. So, Green could also have a excellent junior year and distance himself from the rest of the college position class...kinda like Green did with Stubbs. But that's only statistically speaking, Jason would know more about the scouting reports which are more important than numbers in my opinion. But on a similar note, while Longoria may blossom into the player from that draft (along with Lincecum) he wasn't the concensus #1 player heading into that draft. Most people thought Andrew Miller was the number best talent in that draft. -Jason Looking back at 2006 draft, how similarly does it compare to 2009 draft prior to the college season (college wise)? Going into the college season it was thought to be a weak draft like 2009. College pitching was thought to dominate the top of the first round, with a weak class of college position players. |
| 13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-16-2009 17:13:54 Stranger, If you need to be told the abbreviations used in the piece, baseball isn't your game. Heck, maybe sports aren't your thing, either. The photo is Glaesmann, the original shot has his name on the shot, I'll make an edit to it today. And if you haven't noticed, stranger, this isn't the Wall Street Journal or the USA Today. We tend to do things a little differently for the comfort of the reader - and the writer. I'm not going to apologize for not being AP-style correct just to make one or two people feel like the site is worthy. I strongly suggest you find somewhere else to talk baseball. You clearly didn't come here to do that. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-16-2009 17:26:43 Re: Gus, Yes, Green is vastly overrated because of his current position, and while I have talked to some scouts that are pretty confident that he sticks at short, he would have been, at best, the 20th best talent in last year's draft. Unless someone drafts for need or Green makes marked progress, Green won't go in the top 5. If the draft were today, I would take White or Tyler Matzek, the prep lefty. re: John_S, I've seen very little of Gibson, but the word on him is that he's a future No. 3; Gil Meche level guy with above-average stuff but average command and not a great feel for pitching. He could be a top 10-15 pick, too. re: rjscotty, I haven't seen Pollard, but if he gets a chance to play this year at the U, I certainly will at some point. I'll make sure I catch some BP of him, too. Ask me after the home-opening series versus Oregon. re: Paul, There are certainly similarities between '06 and '09. We'll see how that turns out after the amateur seasons are mostly complete. Seems there are more worthy prep players, though. Matzek, Matt Purke, Shelby Miller, Donovan Tate, Mychael Givens... More on Grant Green-Longoria -- The physical differences start with the natural power - Advantage Longoria. He's just more naturally strong and quick wristed. Green has more foot speed, which is why he has a chance to stick at short and Longoria really did not. But we do have to remember, Green has yet to play his junior season. Maybe he answers all of those questions and earns that top five pick. Tulowitzki came a long way between his sophomore and junior seasons, both defensively and at the plate. I'll see Green in May at UW, and maybe down at Oregon State in April. Who is coming with me? |
| 15. By: Gustafson on 02-16-2009 17:32:56 I'm certainly going to the USC game at UW. You should get a group together at the Ram prior... We'll have a blast and talk M's... |
| 16. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-16-2009 17:37:07 Do we have to talk M's? And who's coming to see UW-Oregon? March 3-4. |
| 17. By: seattlebruin on 02-16-2009 18:24:23 Jason, Have you heard anything re: whether Washington will select Strasburg #1? |
| 18. By: seattlebruin on 02-16-2009 18:24:24 Jason, Have you heard anything re: whether Washington will select Strasburg #1? |
| 19. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-16-2009 18:37:14 No, it's probably too early for that to even start. But I have to think that Washington is going to give in on paying Strasburg, then they'll draft a cheaper, super-signable guy at 11. But there is something to the Dunn thing; maybe they paid for Dunn so they can take someone else at one and get away with it with their fanbase. I can also see Strasburg, a west coast guy and a Boras client, trying to work his way to Seattle or San Diego. Washington is a dead zone. They are five years from anything, and every year they keep Bowden on as GM is another year they'll have to wait to contend. |
| 20. By: slick on 02-16-2009 18:45:45 Hey Jason have you herd the rumor that MLB might allow sign and trade deals with some of the remaining type A players like Juan Cruz Orlando Hudson Orlando Cabrera. From what i hear they will be allowed to sign with there old teams and given 48 hours to make a trade with another team I am sure the player union is onbroad. Teams would like to sign these player I am sure but the new trend of growing the org through the farm system and player development has kind of taken hold therefore clubs are reluctent to sign these players. |
| 21. By: acqb1424 on 02-16-2009 18:56:14 Jason, Do you think the Nationals would be interested in someone like Tate with the first pick? Bowden has always liked toolsy outfielders. I know it's super early, but what do you think the chances are that Strasburg is on the board when the Mariners pick? 10 percent? 20? |
| 22. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-16-2009 18:58:16 Big rumor at this point, but its been brought up on more than one occasion. Of course the union would like it, it helps the players. |
| 23. By: DRWheelock on 02-16-2009 19:08:44 Anymore info on the Griffey front Jason? Wren spent this afternoon with JR one-on-one, and will be calling his agent (according to reports) tomorrow morning. Until I heard that I thought that JR to Seattle was pretty much a done deal, even with all the Brave rumors since Saturday. The PR thing is good for both sides (Seattle AND Griffey) in finishing his career! Sounds like Wren is going overboard to wine & dine JR to sign with them. It's beginning to appear that Atlanta has the edge, or else Wren wouldn't be meeting with him personally & contracting his agent on the morning he is suppose to be making/announcing a decision??!?!! This is going to be a LONG two years for us M's fans. Griffey would of brought me to the park, and I didn't think he was going to be a major impact this year. But it's a no brainer for our DH slot to replace Edgar's slot that we've missed since Edgar retired. |
| 24. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-16-2009 19:11:00 He has to go overboard because their monetary offer is for less than Seattle's. Griffey already knows where he's going. And I don't think 2010 is necessarily going to be a long year. Jack knows what he's doing, Felix is really good and that's 15 months away. You can turn over a roster 100% in less than that. Jack has turned it over more than 50 percent in three months. |
| 25. By: ThePaul on 02-16-2009 19:30:03 -Jason This is kinda non-Mariner related, but how do you feel about the sign and trade rumors of Type A comp players like Juan Cruz? What sort of player do you ask for if your the D'Backs? If I'm Josh Brynes I would kinda pissed Cruz wasn't a Type B, b/c you know he'd be signed by somebody and they would get a supp. pick. |
| 26. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-16-2009 20:06:35 He has to go overboard because their monetary offer is for less than Seattle's. Griffey already knows where he's going. And I don't think 2010 is necessarily going to be a long year. Jack knows what he's doing, Felix is really good and that's 15 months away. You can turn over a roster 100% in less than that. Jack has turned it over more than 50 percent in three months. |
| 27. By: bikozu on 02-16-2009 20:17:23 Hey Jason, I might go down to try to catch one or both of the Oregon games. I should definitely be able to go to quite a few of the UW games starting in April though, what teams from then have some interesting players? |
| 28. By: acqb1424 on 02-16-2009 22:14:49 Jason, Who else could go No. 1 in the draft if the Nats pass on Strasburg? Donovan Tate? Who would be some of the other names that the Nats would look at in that spot? |
| 29. By: mykillmagnum on 02-17-2009 00:03:37 jason- you might of already covered this, but with the signing of fields, does he move into the mariners top 10 prospects? if so, where in your top 10 does he fall? |
| 30. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-17-2009 00:27:57 I would think Matzek,maybe Shelby Miller, White, Tate... but a lot can and probably will change between now and then. re: Fields I'm stewing over where Fields fits in the top 20. I'm not 100% sure he's in the top 10 due to his limited impact, even if he maxes out. But right this second I do have him at No. 9. Argh. |
| 31. By: Lonnie on 02-17-2009 01:09:37 Dang Jason, that's a ton of stuff for one simple-minded guy like me to digest in one sitting! Jeez, like I need another reason to spend countless hours on the internet looking up stuff... Lonnie |
| 32. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-17-2009 01:12:13 Thanks to Mike Craven, he's down in Texas digging up stuff on the top prospects in his area! |
| 33. By: CollegeKid on 02-17-2009 10:24:03 Jason Tanner Scheppers didn't return to Fresno State for his senior season. He chose to play in the Indy Leagues this year instead. |
| 34. By: 01v-dubs on 02-17-2009 12:45:08 Jason, I've heard mixed reports on White. Some say it's the sink on his fastball that makes him special, I've heard some Brandon Webb like comps, where others like you in this piece say its his slider that makes him good. Have you heard if his fastball has that kind of movement? |
| 35. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-17-2009 13:41:30 re: Scheppers You're right, thought the Fresno State media package did not reflect that. He's a St. Paul Saint, actually. Which is risky, they only play a handful of games before the June draft. |
| 36. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-17-2009 13:43:57 The sink on White's fastball isn't special... it helps, but it's not Brandon Webb or Derek Lowe-like, not even close. Those types throw sinkers, White has a sinking fastball. There is a difference. The key to White being more than a No. 3 starter is how much his slider improves and his changeup. Command is always something college guys can improve upon, too. |
| 37. By: Lonnie on 02-17-2009 14:46:49 Jason, This is a little off topic, but I read something last week or so that bugged the crap out of me. Over at baseballprospectus.com Kevin Goldstein made a list of the top 100 prospects and it looks really whacked to me. I don't know much about that site so I don't know whether to give any of it's authors any credence or not. In his list he rates Greg Halman at #42, Phillippe Aumont at #61, and Michael Saunders at #75. Carlos Triunfel did not make the list at all. Is this guy just a hack or what? Lonnie |
| 38. By: Slack on 02-17-2009 15:21:17 Jason, Do you think the Mariners would strongly consider Aaron Crow with the 2nd overall pick? |
| 39. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-17-2009 19:07:23 Goldstein a hack? Nah. But I couldn't disagree more. Triunfel is a Top 50 prospect, and the top talent in the M's system. So unless Kevin has evidence that nobody else does - that Triunfel is 21 or 22 and not 19 - he's just missing on Triunfel. And Aumont is too high, so is Halman. Both are extremely risky prospects. But Goldstein has a clue, and seems to be a pretty decent guy. Assessing all of the baseball's prospects is a much tougher job than covering just one club's system. |
| 40. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-17-2009 19:10:00 re: Crow I presume that the M's will consider Crow if Strasburg is off the board, and I'm a bigger fan of Crow than many. But what happens with him on the mound between now and the draft is more important for Crow and Scheppers than others, since they won't get much chance to throw in front of scouts. |
| 41. By: Slack on 02-17-2009 21:09:43 As of now, I'm actually a bigger fan of Crow than Alex White. As far as I can gather, it looks like he has better stuff. But, he has missed a lot of time by not signing and will be a year older. The decision may not come down to those two as there may be a lot of other worthy candidates. We'll see what happens. I agree that what happens on the mound will certainly be important for Scheppers because he also has to prove he's heathy and it doesn't look like he has much time to do that. |
| 42. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-17-2009 21:48:35 For me, Crow 2008>White 2009 pre-season, but a lot can change in a year, and the chances that Crow is better in June 09 than he was June 08 are very slim, and White is almost certain to be better in June than he is today. The gap isn't very wide, and I don't like the track record of indy league arms. Look at Luke Hochevar, for example. |
| 43. By: Slurve on 02-18-2009 01:06:12 JAC can we expect a Josh Fields scouting report coming? It's very interesting to see what a group of scouts have to see on a player I especially liked the Brandon Morrow piece. |
| 44. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2009 01:54:07 Fields will be covered in the Handbook. Adding that today and tomorrow. |
| 45. By: Slack on 02-18-2009 10:08:08 Jason, Why do you suppose some of these guys take the Indy League rout rather than go back to college? I think college has a lot more to offer. You get more playing time, more exposure and it doesn't hurt that you get to finish a degree in the process anyway. |
| 46. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2009 11:31:40 Because they don't have a choice. Before the Andy Oliver decision, once you took on an agent in any capacity your college eligibility was toast. Scheppers had no choice. |
| 47. By: FatBat on 02-18-2009 11:40:22 I guess some guy's just don't care about fractions. They would rather just play ball. Doing what you love instead of school. Jason, If Strasburg goes first, are we sold on taking another pitcher? It just seams to me that we havent brought up a top notch hitter since.....AFraud? I know the value of good pitching but if you get a good season from Aumont and Bedard has 9 wins by the allstar game and you can trade him for prospects why not take Ackley or Phegley? Blake Dean. A impact bat that you can build a team around I.E. Pujols, Braun ect. just seems more important to this team. Am I wrong? Everyone else, please throw in your imput. |
| 48. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2009 11:41:19 No, they aren't sold on taking anyone at this point. And right now, there are ZERO impact bats in the draft. None. |
| 49. By: Gustafson on 02-18-2009 12:07:20 Yeah the gap between Strasburn and #2 seems to be getting bigger rather than smaller... I just hope someone pops this year and becomes a worthy #2 pick. Otherwise, the #2 will be no more valuable than the #5 or #6. |
| 50. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2009 12:15:34 This is why PD and BPA are more important than even we think they are sometimes. |
| 51. By: FatBat on 02-18-2009 13:03:43 So I guess White goes or Crow. not horrible but Outside Green (still my choice) Blake Dean's bat looks good. Possible golden spikes award. I know all the right things have to fall into place to make the transfer (u knoing better than us) to MLB numbers but what do you think of his bat? I can see there isnt a real power bat this year but if you can find a nice John Olerud...maybe? Pedroia, high avg. contact hitters in a clutch situation. would that be better than one of the pitcher? in your opinion how does that match up? Also I have read alot on Ackley and Green (all of the different) but not much on Dean. Is he missing something? |
| 52. By: 01v-dubs on 02-18-2009 14:49:10 Jason, there seems to be a large disparity amoung experts on Grant Green, there's been the Tulo and Longoria comps, and then there's been guys like you who say he's not all that special. In a chat today Jim Callis said that he should defend at SS like Tulo, but be a little better with the bat, but not quite Longoria. If that's the case I'd say he's a no brainer at #2 Why do you think there is such as large disparity over him among experts? I sure hope there isn't one come draft day. |
| 53. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2009 15:29:34 Callis said Green is a Tulowitzki-level defender at short? I've seen two full games and about 2 additional hours (half hour of defense, 90 mins of batting) on video... I don't see plus defense, not even for one second. If that was the case, there wouldn't be any doubts about him staying at short, and we'd be talking about a guy with a chance at the No. 1 pick should the Nats decide against Strasburg. |
| 54. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2009 15:32:06 And thanks for screwing that up, dubs, Callis did NOT say Green should defend like Tulowitzki. He said he definitely can stay at short but should hit more than Tulowitzki. Big difference. Tulo is a plus defender. Green is probably average or so, wit a chance to be a little better than that, but that still remains to be seen. |
| 55. By: Gustafson on 02-18-2009 15:33:46 Callis LOVES Green. It comes through in every one of his chats. Who knows how much he's actually seen him play. Regardless, my huge HUGE worry is Green goes #2 because of his position and moves to 3rd before reaching the bigs. Thus negating a major reason for going #2... |
| 56. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2009 15:34:39 I'm going to start fining you guys for things like that, Klaw style. That's $5, dubs. I think due to all the questions about Green, I'll do a scouting report-style write-up this week, either before Craven's Shelby Miller profile - which is going to be really good - or after after it later in the week. |
| 57. By: 01v-dubs on 02-18-2009 15:44:09 Ha, sorry about that, I should have used my words more carfully. |
| 58. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-18-2009 16:06:34 Your tab is up to $5.01 for misspelling "carefully." |
| 59. By: Slurve on 02-18-2009 16:24:12 Hahahaha... i dunno but it seems that this year doens't look like a good year to draft a good bat since it seems a little pitcher heavy. |
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