| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 05-24-2009 |
Just 17 days remain until the 2009 Major League Baseball Draft, otherwise known as the First Year Players Draft. Mike Craven, Prospect Insider's Texas Area Correspondent, and I put together the following capsules on some of the top draft prospects.Kyle Gibson, RHP - Missouri
Opinions are mixed on the big 6-foot-6 right-hander, who employs a fastball that isn’t what scouts expect from a guy with his frame - sitting 90-92 and touching 94. Though the pitch has some late life and can be spotted on both corners of the plate, Gibson’s fastball isn’t going to blow by any top-end hitters. That limits the pitch from being an out pitch up in the strike zone.
When Gibson's command is not strong, he tends to get hit by good lineups.
Scouts are in agreement, however, that his slider is a plus pitch. A very tight breaker that is indistinguishable from his fastball, Gibson’s slider has the typical 10-4 tilt and clocks in at 81-83, according to one Big-12 source. Gibson has not learned how to place it on the outside corner to left-handed batters, but he is not afraid to use it in any count.
The key for Gibson is to stay on top of the pitch, and he does this better with his slider than his fastball. The breaking ball isn't a true put-away offering that is likely to rack up strikeouts in the pro game, but it's Gibson out pitch.
Gibson relies on the hard stuff, rarely using his changeup. When he does the consensus is it is more for show than anything else. The straight change stays in the low 80’s and is thrown early in counts without much confidence.
Gibson does have a tendency to pitch to his competition, and while some don’t consider him an effort guy, the probable first-round pick has elevated his game in big situations such as in a road start against the University of Texas early in Big-12 play.
When Gibson stays ahead of the count and keeps his pitches down in the zone, he is capable of being the best pitcher in the conference, and is likely to be the first Big-12 player taken off the board next month.
His ceiling is as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, but Gibson comes with less risk than any other starter in the draft not named Stephen Strasburg.
Andrew Oliver, LHP – Oklahoma State
After a real-life court drama, Oliver was allowed to play this year for Oklahoma State. The 6-foot-3 left-hander has struggled this year after some of the people I’ve talked to feel Oliver has solidified himself as a high pick with his dominance last year in the Big 12, as well as his performance over the summer for the USA team.
But some feel his stock may be dropping. He finished the year at 5-5 with a 4.99 era for a Cowboys team that failed to qualify for the Big 12 tournament.
There is no question Oliver has the talent teams are looking for. He features a four-seam fastball that sits at 92-94 mph, exploding up in the zone. Oliver’s arm slot is described as 3/4 but it’s not a true 3/4 angle according to talent evaluators, as he dips his front shoulder and attacks diagonally to the plate, creating the angle.
Oliver uses a slurve to compliment his fastball. It’s described as a very tight breaking ball with late downward movement. Some scouts aren’t confident he’ll be able to get away with throwing the pitch for strikes as a professional, but it is an above-average out pitch when he doesn’t over throw it. Scouts do feel he’ll be able to develop a nice slider by the time he’s ready for the big leagues.
Like most pitchers entering the draft, his changeup needs work. He uses it well but, a lot like Matt Purke, some scouts are worried his arm angle won’t allow the pitch to improve.
Oliver is probably not going to be a first-round pick with so many other arms charging toward the finish line - college and pro - but he's a top 50 talent with a chance to be a No. 2 starter.
Kendal Volz, RHP – Baylor
Volz burst onto the national scene over the summer as the dominant closer for the USA national team that went 24-0 last summer. Like Oliver, Volz has struggled at times this year, and according to most the issue has been inconsistent mechanics that scouts feel can and will be cleaned up once he is sogned.
According to Volz’s own coach he hasn’t been the same since leaving for the summer and he needs to get back to attacking hitters. Perhaps the adjustment back to a starter took away his aggressiveness to an extent.
Volz has a true 3/4 arm angle when he pitches. The six-foot-two 215 pounder is as solidly built as a pitcher can be, and he has proven over the last few weeks that he is more than a closer. Volz has thrown over 130 pitches in back to back games for Baylor and against Texas on Friday he performed better from pitch 60-120 than he did in the early innings where he battled control issues.
He isn’t going to overpower anybody; his fastball barely touches 90, but nothing he makes up for the lack of speed by not throwing anything straight. Volz lacks good hip turn; with it he could easily throw 94. Watching Volz pitch reminded me of Huston Street right away.
When Volz gets ahead of the count he is an overwhelming pitcher at the college level. He left batter after batter guessing on his slurve, a pitch he showed the ability to locate on both sides of the plate. It is when he is forced to throw strikes that he struggles, because his mechanics soften and his pitches flatten out.
What separates Volz in some scouts minds is his ability to use his changeup. The pitch comes in anywhere from 73-76 mph. In fact Volz throws all his pitches at varying speeds, a trait not seen by many college pitchers.
Physically, Volz is what clubs look for in a starting pitcher - 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, and very aggressive. He's not a first-round talent as it stands today, but some club in the sandwich or second round is going to get a potential No. 2 starter - albeit one with some adjustments to make.
Brian Pearl, RHP - Washington
Pearl, a converted infielder, must like me a lot. The two relief appearances he made prior to me seeing him live in April, he sat 89-91 and had spotty command and no signs of a breaking ball worth mentioning, according to an NL East club's Northwest Area Scout.
The day I show up, Pearl is 90-95 with a decent breaking ball and a clean command line -- no walks, no three-ball counts, no wild pitches no hit batters, 16 pitches thrown in a perfect inning of work.
In May, three days before I saw him,Pearl walked two, hit a batter and allowed two earned runs on two hits. He didn't strike out a single batter of the seven he faced, and the same scout had him at 90-91 without throwing a single offspeed pitch.
The Saturday I was in attendance, Pearl touched 96 and dominated five batters, fanning three and not allowing a hit. He walked one, but that was the only batter that saw a three-ball count.
The message is, he's inconsistent, but with more reps on the mound -- remember, he's a converted infielder and hasn't pitched a lot -- he could develop average or better command and get a better feel for his breaking ball, but it flashes as a plus slider at 84-87 mph. His delivery is quite and smooth for a converted third baseman, which will help Pearl in the professional ranks.
Alex Wilson, RHP - Texas A&M
When I called a former area scout that scouted Texas and other southern states for an AL West club and asked him about Wilson, the first words out of his mouth were "life on the fastball... Brandon Morrow like."
Wilson doesn't sit 96-98 like a healthy Morrow does, and the right-hander had Tommy John surgery a year and a half ago. But he was putting up impressive numbers this season in the Aggies' rotation until he was moved to the bullpen to curb his workload.
But scouts saw enough.
"I went back to see him twice -- once as a starter and I caught him in relief," said the scout, now a special assistant with an NL club. "He wasn't great when I saw as a starter, but the stuff was there; 92-94, there were a few 96s in there, his slider was sharp, and he never hung it... and the kid is an aggressive competitor. I definitely look at him as a starting pitching prospect."
Wilson has an outside chance to be taken in round one, but is more likely to be a sandwich selection, possibly to Seattle at No. 33. He's only 6-feet-1 and 205 pounds, but he pitches much bigger but with a quick, fluid delivery. There's a little effort in it, but it's not a reliever's delivery by any means.
If it's a Reliever You Want, Draft an Iffy Starter, I Say
Rather than drafting any of the top pure relievers in this year class - Florida's Billy Bullock, Stanford's Drew Storen, Washington's Brian Pearl, Arizona's Jason Stoffel and Boston College's Mike Belfiore - I strongly suggest taking South Carolina's Sam Dyson, USC's Brad Boxberger or Dallas Bapstist's Victor Black and put them on the path to the big leagues as multi-inning relievers.
All three possess better stuff, particularly in shorter outings, than the aforementioned relief prospects. None of the five pure relievers are projected closers -- each of them profiles better presently as a 7th or 8th inning arm -- while Dyson, Black and Boxberger's stuff plays up in relief, with Dyson reaching 97 mph as late as the 6th inning as a starting pitcher. But his command issues have brought up the idea that perhaps his future is in the bullpen, much like that of recent draftees Daniel Bard and Brandon Morrow.
Boxberger closed successfully for USC in 2008, and Black is a fastball-curveball guy that sits 92-95 as a starter, but uses a high-effort delivery best suited for bullpen work.
All three could be fast-tracked to the big leagues and have bigger upsides than the five pure relief prospects, and carry similar timetables of graduation.
Boston, the Yankees, the Phillies and the Rangers could use sandwich-to-third-round picks to take such a pitcher off the board, though Dyson and Boxberger are not likely to make it past the first part of round two.
Photo: Left-hander Andrew Oliver
draft-notes
Comments
The following 75 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Slurve on 05-24-2009 22:46:22 Oliver fell that far eh? Could he fall to our 2nd round pick? (Not 2nd overall but 2nd round) Stuff wise he seems pretty solid and would be a solid LHP in the rotation. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-24-2009 22:53:37 He could, but if it were me picking, he would not. |
| 3. By: StandinPat on 05-25-2009 11:42:54 Wait? You're suggesting drafting players with potentially the most value, and only moving them to a less valuable role when they've proven they can't handle the more valuable role? Sounds pretty out there.... |
| 4. By: acqb1424 on 05-25-2009 12:13:08 Jason, What do you know about Daniel Bibona from UC Irvine? Is he a mid round guy? |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-25-2009 18:06:57 Very late, acqb, he's an undersized, mid-80s fastball southpaw with no out pitch. He's a gimmick arm who throws tons of junk and relies on being unique to get outs. It won't fly in pro ball much. |
| 6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-25-2009 18:45:09 I'm suggesting it does and could happen again in this draft, Pat. And if clubs believe the best player on the board is a guy they'd use in relief, there's zero wrong with the idea. If you draft a pure reliever, he's a reliever and that's it. If he's currently a starter, you can use him as a reliever while you have that hole in your big league pen - because if you didn't have that hole versus a hole in the rotation, you'd draft someone else or use him immediately in the rotation in the minors to develop him further - and if he has a future in the rotation, you work him in. Many of the best baseball minds of all time, past and present, believe it's the best way to season a young arm. |
| 7. By: littlelinny6 on 05-25-2009 19:21:38 LaRue is report Kenji broke his big toe in the game today and will be placed on the 15 day DL. Wak already said it will not be Clement coming up because he hasn't been catching (hopefully he will soon), but do you think this is Adam Moore's window to get called up?? The thought of Jamie Burke and Rob Johnson sharing the catching duties is frightening--are there possibly two worse hitters in ML baseball? Not that I would be expecting great things out of Moore but if he could be near average defensively and hit above a .500 OPS he is already better than Johnson/Burke. |
| 8. By: StandinPat on 05-25-2009 19:54:25 Jason, I was being facetious. It drives me absolutely crazy that our last 3 1st Round picks are now if relief, especially considering the success we've had developing guys from later round picks, waiver wire, and minor league FA's. Also, what do you think of Willy Aybar? He's a guy I thought the M's should have targeted this off-season as a replacement for Lopez. Do you think the Rays would part with him, even with Iwamura going down? |
| 9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-25-2009 20:50:05 Willy Aybar is a valuable player that TB now needs desperately, so I don't think they'd part with him unless you offered them too much to begin with. |
| 10. By: acqb1424 on 05-25-2009 21:41:19 Is there any chance that Leake is on the board at 27? If you had to bet, who will be the one player that will fall further than expected and might be there for the M's at 27 or 33? |
| 11. By: 36148 on 05-25-2009 22:20:35 Please comment on the draftability/future of WSU players: Matt Way (SP), Johnson (closer), Jared prince, and Lagreid (C) |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-25-2009 22:45:37 There's no way Leake is on the board at 27 unless he starts demanding way over slot for picks between 10 and 20. Re: Way, Johnson, Prince, Lagreid I don't know a whole lot about the stock of Lagreid and Johnson, and that probably means they are second or third day talents, at best. Prince and Way could be early second-day guys at best. Neither are top 100 talents, and aren't really close. |
| 13. By: StandinPat on 05-26-2009 11:12:49 Jason, Anyone else out there with a similar skillset to Aybar that might be available? Seems like he was an underutilized utility player with solid plate skills and good D. I would think its the type of player Z would be targeting with his whole, young players that have MLB experience philosophy. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-26-2009 13:00:15 Not that I can think of. |
| 15. By: shemberry on 05-26-2009 14:32:41 Jason, Dayn Perry has an article up at Fox Sports about trades that should happen now. He suggests the M's send Bedard to Philly for Michael Taylor+. What do you think of Taylor? Would he be a good return for Bedard? Would the M's do it, would the Phils? |
| 16. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-26-2009 14:45:01 I wouldn't. I'd hold out for Dominic Brown. He's the only guy in their system I'd do a 1-for-1. |
| 17. By: Gustafson on 05-26-2009 15:09:59 Man I hope Bedard stays healthy the next few weeks... It'd be nice to get a little bidding war for him to recoup some small percentage of value for him. Jason, when do you suspect Jack Z would start dropping the asking price on Bedard? Right at the last minute before the deadline? |
| 18. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-26-2009 16:12:05 What price is that? There haven't been any concrete offers made. |
| 19. By: littlelinny6 on 05-26-2009 16:28:11 Can you give us a quick scouting report on Brown? I'm just not that familiar with the Phils system. He looks like a more powerful version of Esqiuel Carrera but in high A ball. Does he project to be an every day CF in the bigs? |
| 20. By: 36148 on 05-26-2009 18:00:07 Assuming M's take Ackley w/ #2 and he's a CF, is it safe to expect him in the bigs by July010? Also, I'm intrigued by Hoffpauir of ChiCubs. What does he project at? |
| 21. By: Gustafson on 05-26-2009 18:32:47 Jason, I was referring to something I recently read that Jack Z was currently "asking for the moon" in return for Bedard (blanking on where I read it - sorry). |
| 22. By: Gustafson on 05-26-2009 18:46:46 Jason, on Twitter you say the only way the M's don't take three college arms is if Stassi falls to 33. Do you now think the M's go with a college arm at #2 instead of Ackley, or am I mis-reading your post? |
| 23. By: safecochatter on 05-26-2009 19:06:22 jason - watched gonzaga sweep loyola this weekend for the wcc championship. the zags first baseman Ryan Wiegand hit 3 homers on saturday(8 rbi), is he on the radar at all for day one of the 09 draft. |
| 24. By: Slack on 05-26-2009 19:35:00 Jason, If it's three college arms, who would you take? |
| 25. By: timbmyers on 05-26-2009 19:57:31 Hey Jason A little off the subject...but do you think a trade of Ichiro and Bedard to the Dodgers for a package centered around Andre Ethier and James McDonald be a possibility? Just wondering what your thoughts are. Thanks. |
| 26. By: DAMellen on 05-26-2009 20:57:34 Earlier today I read a blog post on some Phillies fan's website saying that the Phillies needed Bedard and he wished it would only cost Dominic Brown, Jason Donald, and Joe Savery, but because Donald hasn't done well so far this year, he figured they'd have to throw in Antonio Bastardo too. I know the Phillies have made some nutty trades in the past (the Blanton deal stands out), but that's absurd, right? I mean, there's no way Bedard's worth all that. I can't believe anybody in Philadelphia would be excited at the possibility of making that trade. Hopefully, that site was run by Ruben Amaro and he'll be making the call shortly. Anyways, I guess my point is, thank you Seattle blogging community for not being as stupid as that Phillies blog I read. |
| 27. By: rotoenquire on 05-27-2009 00:07:47 I would love a deal with the Dodgers myself. For one huge reason. J. Repko the guy has one of the best OF arms in the game and is a solid defensive player. A genuine 5 tool guy sitting at Triple-A. You get him, Ivan DeJesus and James McDonald I would be happy. You Continue to try and trade Betencourt and Lopez. Putting Tillman at SS and DeJesus at 2nd. And put McDonald in Trip-A till 100% ready. |
| 28. By: DAMellen on 05-27-2009 00:35:35 I don't think they'd do that trade. And who's Tillman? |
| 29. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-27-2009 03:52:57 Sorry, rotoenquire.... I really think the Dodgers value McDonald and DeJesus way too much to put them in a deal with us- we don't have as many good pieces as other teams do in order to trade back to them. And they're up by 9 games. They probably aren't looking that deeply into the trade market. I don't know how much they value Repko, but his presence in Triple-A probably is a good inidcation he can be had. Only problem is, a lot of our own upper-minor prospects are....outfielders. Those are nice thoughts, and I'd dearly love McDonald in particular to put on an M's uniform. But that trade scenario wouldn't work, really. I think both Chicago clubs, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, St. Louis and now Tampa Bay (with Iwamura injured) make more sense as trade partners. |
| 30. By: DAMellen on 05-27-2009 10:06:34 You think Iwamura's injury makes them more likely to trade for Bedard? Not saying you're wrong, but I'm not sure why that would be. Do you think that losing a starter means that they'll be more eager to add to their roster even if they're adding in a totally different area from where the injury occurred? I guess that's possible. Although, I will say that I don't think Willy Aybar's an especially big downgrade from Iwamura. Still, I'd be interested in dealing with them too, especially if they were willing to deal Reid Brignac (whom I heard had pissed off the club somehow). Not saying he's going to be a star or anything, but lefty shortstops are tough to find and his minor league numbers are pretty solid. Of course, I'm assuming he plays good defense and I really have no idea if he does. |
| 31. By: safecochatter on 05-27-2009 11:53:53 with Weiters being called up friday. this would signal the super 2 cutoff date. any prospect brought up before friday "could" earn super 2 status and become a free agent 1 year earlier than a prospect brought up after friday. someone correct me if i'm off a bit. so for those wanting adam moore or saunders called up. it won't be before friday. imho saunders should be broght up to play left and wlad should dh. maybe mix it up a little,but both should get 90% playing time. with jr getting the other %20 at those spots. jr would also be the bat off the bench. and sweeney could just ride off into the sunset. |
| 32. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-27-2009 12:12:13 DAMellen- Actually, when I mentioned Tampa Bay as a partner, it was with the idea of foisting Lopez to them. Not Bedard. I agree with ya that Manny Aybar isn't so horrible of a downgrade at second base...you could certainly survive a few weeks, a month with him. But four months? Hmmmmmmm. But, keep in mind I'm sure the Rays know all about our Lopez and his warts...I'm not at all sure whatever trade scenario GMZ can imagine would bring back Brignac, though he'd be an interesting piece for us. Of even more interest to me would be SP Wade Davis, whom I like a lot....but Tampa Bay likes him probably even more than Brignac. The Rays in all likelihood wouldn't be in the market for Bedard as strongly as others would be. To me, Bedard makes more sense as a Blue Jay, Phillie, or a White Sox. My vote for Bedard's destination right now is ChiSox, because Kenny Williams has blood in his eyes, needs a rotation shored up, and is my pick as "the GM most likely to make a short-sighted, extremely-beneficial-to-us trade". I wonder if GMZ can pry Aaron Poreda and other(s) away, in such a deal. I like the idea of Poreda in an M's uni even better than Wade Davis. |
| 33. By: StandinPat on 05-27-2009 12:43:38 Why would Tampa do that? Aybar = better than Lopez in everyway. Switch Hitter, better on base skills, more usable power, ie not a dead pull hitter, and a better defender with versatility. |
| 34. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-27-2009 14:05:04 StandinPat- Depth. That's why they'd do it. The only reason. I'm not saying they'd pay the moon, though....or anything even close to Brignac and Davis. Those are just wish-list musings. But Jason Bartlett is on the 15-day DL, too. Aybar's numbers are a little on the "small sample size" side, but I agree with you when you say he's better at MOST everything than Lopez. How are these for ugly numbers, as of today? Jose Lopez- wOBA .243; BABIP- .232; OPS- .566 (!!); OBP- .259 (!?!!?fuhhhhhhh). Aybar's line on the same stats read (albeit in fewer games/ABs)- .339-.297-.765-.365.... But Lopez does have a significantly smaller K%- 12.5% compared to 17.5% for Aybar. Yay. |
| 35. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-27-2009 15:22:02 I like Davis more, because I think Poreda ends up in the pen. |
| 36. By: acqb1424 on 05-27-2009 15:41:27 Jason, Any new draft developments? Does it still look like Ackley will be the pick? Any more news on Crow and Scheppers? Will the handbook be out before the draft? |
| 37. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-27-2009 15:42:24 Really, Jason? Poreda in the pen, why? No true out pitch? Bad control? |
| 38. By: Jerry on 05-27-2009 20:57:39 Jason, What is your impression (or, better, what is the inside scoop) on the M's budget for the draft and international signing period? I remember you saying a while back that we should expect less money to be spent in Latin America. Is that still realistic? I haven't heard them linked to any of the big names. Also, do you think the M's will be more or less likely to go over slot than the previous regime? |
| 39. By: Rudolf on 05-27-2009 22:24:12 Keith Law is predicting Purke and Stassi to slip past us at 27... would the M's let Purke go by over a heavy signing bonus? Rick Porcello slipped in that respect and I'm sure the Tiger's would do it all over again, maybe even trade for a type A to do it twice. Seems getting a Purke or Stassi late in the 1st would be better for the club in the longrun than a less talented college arm. Are we that desperate? Also, in Law's same article the name AJ Pollack is mentioned. For real? Two CF's with our first two picks? I thought Pollack was one of those guys you hoped slipped to you in the second round, if you were interested at all. I must be wrong. |
| 40. By: Rudolf on 05-27-2009 22:50:24 One more thing (just read your twitter post): Are you insinuating the M's are not going to take Ackley with the #2 pick? |
| 41. By: rotoenquire on 05-27-2009 22:51:00 I would actually be happy with getting Repko any way poss. The M's OF would get a huge upgrade as a result and he maybe cheap... |
| 42. By: mykillmagnum on 05-27-2009 23:36:42 jason- with all the trade rumors (or should i say wish lists) that are out there right now, my question to you is, if the mariners had three offers out on the table for just bedard, one from the phillies (dominic brown) one from the blue jays (travis snider) and one from the brewers (alcides escobar) with other prospects all of equal value in each trade. which trade would you take? and which trade would benefit the ms the best? im not saying any of these team will or might make these players available, these just seem to be the names that keep coming up. thanks for your time |
| 43. By: DAMellen on 05-27-2009 23:37:23 He's gotta mean that he expects the Mariners to take college pitchers at 27, 33, and 51. If the Mariners were off Ackley, I think that'd deserve more than just a tweet (is that the right word?). |
| 44. By: CrustyJuggler on 05-27-2009 23:47:32 I played against Repko in high school. Talk about a gifted athlete. |
| 45. By: CrustyJuggler on 05-27-2009 23:49:54 #42, I think the Mariners would take NONE of those offers..... Since Zduriencik would be shocked into a heart attack right there in his office. |
| 46. By: rjfrik on 05-29-2009 14:03:05 Jason, With the trade winds picking up and the Whitesox needing a SP and a 3B and Kenny Williams being a fly by the seat of his pants type GM. Do you think it would be reasonable to send the Whitesox Bedard, Beltre and another high minor league piece (like Clement possibly) or Balentin for Beckam and Poreda (sp?) and maybe another minor leaguer? Or is that unrealistic? |
| 47. By: Blowgun7 on 05-29-2009 14:09:32 No way you would ever get Beckam in that deal, let alone Beckam and Poreda. |
| 48. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-29-2009 14:14:29 I'm in Vegas, fellas, but I'll try and catch up here... Poreda, a reliever: Bad delivery, his secondary stuff isn't great. He's going to be given every opportunity to be a starter, of course, but I don't see him excelling there long term, and in a deal such as that, you can't get a long-term reliever in return. Beckham is their future SS, he's not going anywhere for a rental. CWS probably isn't going to have strong interesting in Bedard. re: Ackley I still think they pick him. |
| 49. By: littlelinny6 on 05-29-2009 15:42:58 Jason, What do you think of Jason Donald?? Can he stick at SS in the majors? Obviously Bedard would be a good fit for the Phillies and with the recent surgery news for Brett Myers could maybe make the Phillies willing to give up more. Do you think a package that includes Donald and possibly Taylor/Antonio Bastardo would be reasonable to expect (I left out Brown because you said its not likely)? |
| 50. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-29-2009 15:48:20 Brown is just not happening, no. I get two entirely different opinions on Donald. One is that he's a capable SS, could play second at above-average levels, average or better bat. Good player. Another opinion is that he's a utility guy. I think he's Mark DeRosa with some SS abilities, and DeRosa is a pretty decent player. |
| 51. By: littlelinny6 on 05-29-2009 15:52:07 Interesting, then if you were trading with the Phillies what would be a reasonable package for Bedard the M's could expect and then furthermore, is there anything the Phillies offers package-wise that is worthwhile for the M's that is reasonable for the Phils to offer? |
| 52. By: rjfrik on 05-29-2009 16:32:23 Yeah I wasn't sure about Beckam. The reason I included him was because I read an article on S.I. that was about Bedard and his trade value. The writer said that Bedard would garner more in a trade then the Padres got for Peavy in their deal that fell through. And in that deal it was Poreda and 3 other pitchers. So I thought, they are desperate for a 3B as well because Fields is stinking, so if we sent Beltre and a high minor piece or Balentin we could some how pry away Beckam. Wishful thinking I guess. Have fun in Vegas. Where are you staying? Was at the Palazzo last week, it was nice, there is a good poker room in the Venetian, it's sister hotel, a lot of donkeys :) |
| 53. By: Blowgun7 on 05-29-2009 17:24:43 Jason, What do you think of Bastardo, he seems to have really come on of late in regards to being a quality prospect? Should the M's be interested in Taylor? How does he project defensively? He is any better of a prospect than Balentien is/was? Sucks that you say Brown isn't an option. He appears to be a nice looking player, plus a left handed bat. |
| 54. By: CrustyJuggler on 05-30-2009 13:41:31 Jason Donald is playing flat horrible this year (.234/.299/.337). And if there's a question at all whether he can stick at short, him being the center piece of a Bedard deal is scary. Add to that he isn't all that young of a prospect (25 in Sept). He just seems, like Jason cited, like a very possible future utility player. Decent contact, 2:1 K:BB rates, average speed, not a plus defender, not much power... etc. |
| 55. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-30-2009 15:18:55 juggler, What kind of power grade would you give Adrian Beltre on a 20-80 scale, with 80 being Babe Ruth outstanding, 50 being major league average and 30 being well below average to poor? |
| 56. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-31-2009 00:20:44 Not that he's playing like it right now, but I'd give Beltre a 60 on a 20-80 scale. It wouldn't surprise me if Beltre winds up not getting traded- if he lands Type A Free Agent designation, that might be more valuable than anyone we could get for him in a trade. Jason, I have an idea for a ProspectInsider contest. The draft comes up in a little over a week (finally!!)...we could have readers submit who they think the Mariners will draft within the first 200 players picked. By my reckoning, that's about seven rounds. Scoring could be pretty simple- 1 point for every player picked right in the round mentioned. If you pick a player right, but say the player is picked a round lower than what you thought? Half a point. Everybody would likely get Round 1- Dustin Ackley- but then it becomes a serious guessing game. Tie-breaker could be: whoever is closest to the amount of pitchers the Mariners wind up picking. Say, they pick 28 out of the 50 rounds. Whoever's closest to that number wins the tie-breaker. The only thing is, I've no idea what we could run as a prize. Maybe an old Lookout Landing shirt? (Zing!) It could be fun! Oh, and I also think the only real nickname for the High Desert prospects (Ramirez, Pineda, Adcock, Aumont) is a slightly-borrowed one from the early-'90s Dodgers...The United Nations Rotation. |
| 57. By: rocketdawg31 on 05-31-2009 00:25:26 Oh, one last thing and sorry for the double-post....we could make it the first 100 picks on the contest if we wanted, but 200 would really be a challenge- and we could use Baseball America's 1-200 list as a reference (I don't think you have to pay to read that list). |
| 58. By: CrustyJuggler on 05-31-2009 01:56:16 #55 Knowing that this is a loaded question.. I guess I'll walk into it. If I had a guess on Beltre's power given that scale, I would venture a solid 60 grade. Ever since the move to Seattle he is morphing into a doubles hitter and not so much the 48 homer monster he showed in 2004. But he still manages 25 HRs in an extreme righty-punishing park. Put him in a more hitter friendly environment and I could see him hitting 30 a year. How far off am I? |
| 59. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-31-2009 03:51:43 I actually only asked to prove a point on Donald. Beltre has a .328 SLG and just 3 homers in 2009 and you gave him a 60. Doesn't matter if I agree or not, but you aren't far off, I probably would have been close to that myself. Donald has shown average power with potential for more, but has run into a similar buzzsaw as has Beltre. So saying that he doesn't have much power -- and I'm not picking on you -- not only isn't fair, but it's too dependent on two months, just like if we gave Beltre a 40. And with developing players you have to project the physical skills together with the performance results. |
| 60. By: 36148 on 05-31-2009 11:54:29 Jason, I don't hear about Chris Dominguez 3B (Louisville) re: draft. Preseason he was a POY candidate. Is he not eligible or has he fallen off a cliff in skills? |
| 61. By: StandinPat on 05-31-2009 12:50:49 Jason, Just for clarification, when we are talking about power on the 20-80 scale, are we rating raw power, or usable power, ie translating it to actual results? |
| 62. By: kjt0004 on 05-31-2009 17:11:05 Early on I heard a lot of talks about the M's drafting Grant Green from USC, is that option out of the question now? You would think with all the talks of trading Yuni would make this a viable option. If the M's pass on Green, do you think they would take a player like Joey Wong from Oregon State? |
| 63. By: kjt0004 on 05-31-2009 17:25:54 When I say " take Joey Wong" I mean in a later round, not the first. |
| 64. By: CrustyJuggler on 05-31-2009 17:58:49 Fair enough point on Donald. But how much projection does he have left? He's 25 this year and, by the numbers, has never really shown much power in his professional career. Compound that with informed people thinking he doesn't have the bat to stick at a corner and there has to be an issue with his power. Doesn't there? |
| 65. By: CrustyJuggler on 05-31-2009 18:02:27 #62 Most of the mocks I've seen have Green falling down into the teens. He seems to have fallen out of favor with everyone. He already had questions around him and he didn't do much good by having a slow start to the year. |
| 66. By: Talkbaseball on 05-31-2009 18:56:03 Church, are you gonna update the mock draft for subscribers? Also, any chats or notebooks on the horizon? Have you heard a timeframe for Raben's recovery or any updates on Triu's rehab? |
| 67. By: bigfan on 05-31-2009 21:16:25 Storen reaches 97 and has been a true closer for Stanford for 2 years. |
| 68. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-31-2009 23:07:08 Juggler, You're wrong, but again, not picking on you. Never shown much power? He slugged .491 in A+ in 2007, .497 at AA in 2008. That's above average power for a middle infielder. You're looking purely at homers, or something. He's not going to be Chase Utley and hit 25-30 a year, but 15 and 30+ doubles is well within reach with regular time. |
| 69. By: Jason A. Churchill on 05-31-2009 23:15:20 The point, bigfan? Storen is being scouted as a potential starter by at least three clubs. And I got that information from camp Storen AND two of the three clubs. BTW, juggler, Donald is a 2B/SS, not a corner guy. |
| 70. By: CrustyJuggler on 06-01-2009 08:54:51 I stand corrected on the power thing but you have to agree, in his first taste of AAA at 24 years old he is truly throwing up all over himself. Not a good sign. I think he's injured now and that may be a big part of it. If that's the case, maybe it drives his value down and a team like Seattle could get him on the cheap. |
| 71. By: DAMellen on 06-01-2009 10:26:26 What makes you think he's injured now? Just because his convential numbers are down a bit so far? First of all, don't read too much into the small sample. Second, if you look beyond his conventional numbers, his stats don't seem that far off from his career norms. His line drive percentage is actually slightly higher than it's been the last couple years, his groundball rate is about where it usually is, but his BABIP is .060 below where it's been the last two years. That sounds like a fluke to me. Additionally, his homeruns are down, but his doubles are up which makes me think he's still hitting a fair number of long flyballs, but this year they haven't left the yard quite as often which again, sounds like it's more a fluke than a loss of power. If I were going to worry about anything in his numbers it would be the fact that his walk rate has dropped five percent since last year, but over this small sample, that doesn't seem too meaningful either. While I'd prefer to add a lefty or a switch hitter, if Donald can play average defense at short or good defense at second, he'll be a fine addition. Also, I think Antonio Bastardo sounds great (not just cuz I love his name) and if we got both of them for Bedard, I think we'd be doing alright even if we didn't get anybody else. Jason, do you know if the Rays are looking to make any trades in the next few months? I'd like to see the Mariners acquire some left handed or switch hitting infielders like Brignac, Zobrist, or Aybar, but I don't know that the Mariners have anything the Rays would want. Any thoughts? |
| 72. By: safecochatter on 06-01-2009 12:33:47 jason,is Alcides Escobar an untouchable for milwaukie?? is this a ss that Jack would love to bring in as a building block? i'm not talking rental trade either.. i wouldn't mind giving up saunders or other young talent if m's could find the right building blocks for the future infield. |
| 73. By: bigfan on 06-01-2009 13:07:47 Jason...Storen is being recruited as a bullpen guy by more than 3 clubs. |
| 74. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-01-2009 13:31:19 bigfan, Make a point or shut up. The NEWS is that three or more teams think he can START, which could potentially change his value in the draft. The world knows he's a reliever at Stanford, the world knew he was being scouted as a reliever by a lot of teams. Tell me something substantial or stop wasting our time questioning me. If you have something to add, do it. |
| 75. By: bilbo on 06-01-2009 13:37:44 Do you still think it is going to be Ackley? I have this nervous feeling it will be Scheppers/Crow instead but am obviously hoping they go with Ackley first and SP at 27/33. |
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