| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 04-20-2012 |
"With the third pick in the 2012 Major League Baseball First-Year Players Draft, the Seattle Mariners select Byron Buxton, outfielder, Appling County High School, Baxter, Georgia."If the above rings true in seven weeks, M's fan should be utterly ecstatic. Of course, there are other potential selections that appear to be good choices, too, but Buxton has the best shot to be a superstar among the entire crop.
Yes, it's a bit of a down year, but as one scouting director told me earlier this week, "you still go into the ballpark every day thinking 'I'm going to find a big-leaguer today.'"
The clubs that draft well -- not just at the top of the draft, that's a lot easier, in comparison -- but after rounds one and two, after the buzz-worthy talents are gone, they want to win every round. It used to be all the way to 50, now the draft is 10 rounds shorter.
M's scouting director Tom McNamara is a rare bird. "He works to win all 50 rounds," West Coast supervisor Butch Baccala said last fall. "He's absolutely relentless."
We'll talk about the later rounds ... well, later. This is about the No. 3 overall pick in said down year. Buxton, for lack of a better manner in which to describe him, is the bees knees, and if the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins pass on him, the M's should call his name and player ID out as fast as humanly possible.
Buxton stands 6-foot-1 and weighs in at around 180 pounds. He's a plus-plus runner with a plus-plus arm -- up to 98 mph from the mound earlier this spring -- and bat speed that projects power down the line.
I asked a high-ranking scout from the NL club about draft's top talent and the drool darned near slurred the response.
Buxton's got "superstar tools" and "athleticism," and "only lacks pure hitting ability," the national crosschecker said.
He's often compared to B.J. and Justin Upton for his physical tools; there are no weaknesses there and he combined the best of both brothers. B.J. was the No. 2 pick in 2002 while Justin went No. 1 overall three years later.
Perhaps, however, Buxton lacks the polish the Upton brothers had at the same stage of their development, and he comes with a dampened defensive profile, as he's not a prep shortstop and some believe he'll end up in right field rather than center.
Of course, right field is where Justin Upton landed, despite the belief of many that he could still play center if the Arizona Diamondbacks had the need.
Buxton has every tool to play center, but if given the chance would need to improve all over the defensive side to stay there, including jumps, routes and all-around instincts. For me, he's a centerfielder until it's clear he's not, which only props up his value in this draft.
He's not a perfect prospect, however, and one of the downsides to Buxton playing in rural Georgia is the level of competition he's facing regularly. He's not seeing good pitching and he's not getting pitches to hit -- he's drawing tons of walks and admirably not trying to do too much when he does get a pitch with which he can do something.
He's "facing below average competition," the crosschecker added, "so you have to base a lot of your evaluation on what you saw last summer against solid competition."
The other knock, so to speak, is tied to the competition factor. Buxton is a bit raw at the plate in terms of the hit tool and as a result is not likely to cruise through the minors and see the big leagues by age 20. The club that chooses him will have to wait for him some, but the kid may very well be worth such a wait.
He reminds me of Eric Davis. If you are old enough to have seen Davis play, you know why. Wiry strong -- but very strong -- plus bat speed, big arm, ridiculous quickness and speed and Davis turned into a very good centerfielder.
He was also hitting 25-35 homers a year and hitting around .280 in the bigs by age 24. There's no reason Buxton can't do the same, and truly, the sky is the limit.
When the Seattle Mariners selected Virginia lefty Danny Hultzen at No. 2 overall last June, there was disappointment in the air among fans. Most wanted a hitter -- Anthony Rendon was the common belief and fan favorite -- and the criticism from analysts and critics, including myself, was that Hultzen didn't bring enough upside to be selected that high.
That will never be said of Buxton.
The Mariners are still trying to put together a 25-man roster that can win 80-85 games, followed by one that can win 95 and get into the postseason. The draft can be a good way to get such talent, and some thoughts from others in the industry suggest the M's will take a college player. That very well may be the case.
Right-handers Kevin Gausman from LSU, San Francisco's Kyle Zimmer and Florida catcher Mike Zunino could certainly hear their name called when it's Seattle's turn. Some might be disappointed in that, others will understand that it's all about the best player, not the best player that fills a need.
Having said that, the club may be in a position -- thanks to the development of southpaws James Paxton, Hultzen and right-hander Taijuan Walker's quick ascent, among other recent college draftees such as Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager -- to take the best player and be OK with the risk and time table that comes with a prep kid such as Buxton.
Now, if only someone can find a way to trick the Astros and Twins into passing on Buxton.
Sleepers
Chris Crawford and I each picked a sleeper in the Draft Preview, and my choice was Arkansas Razorbacks third baseman Matt Reynolds. Reynolds is batting .323/.456/.516 with 12 doubles, four homers, 10 stolen bases in 11 attempts and a 30-16 BB/K ratio.
Reynolds might be this year's Kyle Seager, only from the right side of the plate.
"He is a really good player," said an area scout. "His bat doesn't profile well at third, at least in traditional terms, but the kid can really play."
Reynolds has experience at shortstop and could be a super utility player or perhaps a regular at second base.
Other under-the-radar types that are getting attention for the early part of Day 2 -- or perhaps late in the compensation round if someone reaches a bit -- is Western Nevada right-hander Dylan Baker.
I was told of a kid out west that might be a target for a specific NL club that wanted to keep it as hush-hush as possible, but was never told the name. Turns out, after a conversation with Crawford this week, Baker is that guy.
He's from Alaska, but don't let that fool you. He's 6-foot-3, 218 pounds and sits 92-94 mph with his fastball -- up to 96 -- and shows a promising curveball. Baker, who spent some time at Tacoma Community College but never really opened anyone's eyes as he sat 87-89 mostly, does lack a quality third offering at present, which likely keeps him from the first round, and could get him to round three.
When I finally tracked down an area scout that had seen him I was at a game myself so the conversation was short. "He's not under the radar anymore," the scout said. "That idea lasted about three weeks. Everyone and their hamster is out seeing him now."
Class of 2013
Yes, it's far too early to start concerning ourselves with next year's class, but that didn't stop me from putting together the top 5 at each position for the 2013 class. The Top 5 catchers in the class will be released Friday afternoon and the Top 5 middle infielders a week later. Here's what's been released thus far.
Top 5 RHP
Top 5 LHP
Top 5 1B/3B
Top 5 OF
Shy of perfect
The Seattle Mariners have done very well for themselves in the past three drafts. It hasn't been perfect and it hasn't come without criticism. The ultimate verdict will come out in the next few years as these draftees develop into solid or better big leaguers, or fail to do just that.
I joked to McNamara this past Monday that they "need to start screwing up because it looks like I'm just kissing your ass," and his response was classic TMC: "We'll see."
As funny as that could have been, he simply meant that the jury is still out, and he's right. For fun, however, I went back and counted an estimated total of major-league quality players or high probability prospects now in the organization as a result of the 2009-2011 drafts.
Here's what I came up with.
2009
Dustin Ackley (No. 2 overall): Starting second baseman
Nick Franklin (No. 27 overall): Starting shortstop at Double-A Jackson with a possible ETA of 2013. Expected to be an average major leaguer at second base or short.
Steve Baron (No. 33 overall): Starting catcher at Class-A Clinton. Repeating level and league. Developing defensive tools into skills. Ceiling as a backup/platoon catcher, many scouts see him getting to that ceiling.
Kyle Seager (No. 82 overall: Starting third baseman for the short term, potential super utility player or everyday second baseman in the long term.
Vincent Catricala (No. 293 overall: Starting third baseman at Triple-A Tacoma with possible ETA of late 2012. Bat likely plays to some extent, perhaps as a passable defender at third or in left field.
Andrew Carrarway (No. 353 overall): Starting rotation at Double-A Jackson, solid potential as back-end starter or long reliever in MLB.
Anthony Vasquez (No. 533 overall): Starting rotation at Triple-A Tacoma, made MLB debut in 2011. No. 6 starter, long reliever with No. 5 ceiling.
2010
Taijuan Walker (No. 43 overall): Profile and progress speaks for itself.
James Paxton (No. 132 overall): Starting rotation at Double-A Jackson, absolute floor as a premium left-handed reliever or closer. Ceiling as a No. 1 MLB starter.
Stephen Pryor (No. 162 overall: Closer at Double-A Jackson, has stuff to develop into big-league closer, ETA of late 2012, early 2013.
Tyler Burgoon (No. 213 overall): Setup man at Class-A High Desert, middle reliever by late 2013, early 2014.
Stefen Romero (No. 372 overall): Second baseman at Class-A High Desert, profiles as left fielder, MLB platoon bat, capable of playing some third.
2011
Danny Hultzen (No. 2 overall): Starter at Double-A Jackson, on fast track to MLB, should arrive in 2012. Future No. 3 with a shot to be a No. 2.
Brad Miller (No. 62 overall): Starting shortstop at Class-A High Desert, bat will play, and play well, if he stays up the middle -- second base, center field -- not likely to stick at shortstop.
Carter Capps (No. 121 overall): Closer and setup duties at Double-A Jackson, should see big leagues by 2013 at latest, potential future MLB closer.
John Hicks (No. 123 overall): Sharing catching duties at Class-A High Desert, if he proves he can catch, he's a big-leaguer, and so far, that's the prevailing opinion, albeit by a hair.
Steven Proscia (No. 213 overall): Sharing 1B/3B duties at Class-A High Desert, good chance he's at least a platoon bat if he can prove he can handle third base.
Carson Smith (No. 243 overall): Sharing closing duties at Class-A High Desert, stuff strongly suggests at least a seventh inning role, on fast track.
Jack Marder (No. 483 overall): Sharing catching duties at Class-A High Desert, can play other positions, hit tool and athleticism suggests big league regular behind the dish.
Scouting Trail Quote of the Week
"I don't know if I have ever been aware of a worse scouting job than the one I am doing right now. Oh, wait, the Chicago White Sox exist."
-- Anonymous veteran crosschecker
draft-weekly:-buxton-the-right-move-for-m\'s
Comments
The following 36 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: mfdplus on 04-20-2012 04:39:39 I'm not as scouty as the rest of you so I didn't have much of an opinion on who I want the Mariners to pick. Now that you have evoked the legacy of my favorite player of all time, Eric Davis, and described Buxton along the same lines then I have a favorite. |
| 2. By: skyway park on 04-20-2012 06:47:34 I would love for them to pick Buxton. The one thing you can count on is to be surprised out of the 3 drafts so far the only pick we heard of in advance was Ackley, Barron and I believe Jason called the Littlewood pick they have tight lips that's for sure. |
| 3. By: sexymarinersfan on 04-20-2012 07:15:04 1.Buxton 2.Zunino 3.Gausman For me in that order. Unless something drastic happens I think we'll nab one of these 3. Gausman would be a great addition to all the young arms we have coming up, and just increases the chances that we land another Ace. The catching position, along with DH, could be possibly set for quite awhile if Mike Zunino's name is called. I love to think about the possibilities of having him and Montero back there for the future. Zunino is a really good defender and would probably see most of the time behind the dish. Then there's Byron. We really don't have any depth whatsoever in our minor league system for outfielders of this caliber. I would love to hear his name called. He is a ways off, and I have seen what Z can do in a trade. We have the pieces to acquire another bat, an OF bat if you will. I won't be sad or surprised if any of these three are selected come this years draft. |
| 4. By: dawgncarolina on 04-20-2012 07:52:32 I just can't see Buxton falling to us, but if he does I'll be absolutely thrilled. I'd be happy with Zunino, too. Nobody else gets me real excited. |
| 5. By: batman on 04-20-2012 08:09:08 I went to middle school and high school with Baker. He was a pretty huge jerk back then. |
| 6. By: Shawnuel on 04-20-2012 09:11:58 Call it illogical, because I know how polished and low risk Zunino is but I just have an aversion to picking a catcher so high in the draft. That siad, I would go 1.Buxton 2.Gausman/Zimmer 3.Correa |
| 7. By: zrininger on 04-20-2012 10:28:08 Being from Alaska I am very interested to here more about Baker. Anyone have anymore information? High school? Age? (Sucks to hear that he was a jerk) |
| 8. By: batman on 04-20-2012 11:03:28 Baker went to Juneau-Douglas High School and I think he's 20. |
| 9. By: maqman on 04-20-2012 11:21:29 The Astros and Twins need pitchers so there's an outside chance Buxton will be there for us and a better chance Zunino will be. I'm okay with whoever the team picks, they know so much more than I do and have earned my trust. |
| 10. By: mymrbig on 04-20-2012 11:57:51 A draft prospect (Dylan Baker) that went to JDHS? Nice, my alma mater! Not the best competition level for high school ball, but I played high school ball with 2 JDHS guys that were drafted: Toby Staveland (who didn't make it far) and Chad Bentz (Jim Abbott-like pitcher who had some cups of coffee in MLB). thebaseballcube actually shows another couple names since then that have been drafted or played college ball. Most famous sports alumni for JDHS has to be Carlos Boozer. |
| 11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-20-2012 12:12:12 maqman, We're talking about need again? The M's didn't NEED a pitcher last June and that is what they drafted. The Pirates true need was shortstop and catcher and they passed and went with Cole. The Twins haven't drafted this high in a while, but even though they have a tendency to draft college pitching, they also dabble in the prep outfielder -- Aaron Hicks, Ben Revere, Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones. The team at the very top don't draft for need, and the new CBA only pushes that along further. No MLB deals, the bonuses will be greatly reduced ... there's little reason for clubs to not take the BPA now. No reason, really. |
| 12. By: Aarond on 04-20-2012 15:37:44 I have a question about Joey Martarano and how the new budget system effects his draft status. Not only is he committed to BSU and says he's focused on football, but the Broncos don't let players do pro-ball while on the team. Does that mean that unless he makes it clear to MLB teams before draft day that he's willing to sign, that he likely won't be drafted at all? It seems that teams can not risk missing out on a first round pick anymore because they can't grab a high price guy later in the draft to make up for it. |
| 13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-20-2012 16:07:46 I wouldn't say not at all, Aarond, but if those are the circumstances and that is what he tells pro clubs, he won't be drafted high unless a team believes he's worth a plan to overwhelm him with an offer. Teams can still do that, they just would then have far less for the rest of their draft. There might be a few teams out there willing to do that. Money talks, though, and we saw that specifically with Josh Bell this past year. All clubs -- the rich ones that contend every year, those close to his home, the ones that don't win but are spending in the draft to turn their franchises around, all of them -- were told Bell was going to college. And until Pitt came in with their big offer, that was his plan. Money is very convincing, and if Martarano is considered a top 20 pick or better, IMO, he should take it and never look back. We're still talking seven figures and the chances he's a top 100 draft prospect three years into his college football career aren't good, based on numbers, risk of injury and stagnated development, and the fact that there are tons of college football programs with tons of prospects. W |
| 14. By: slamcactus on 04-20-2012 18:49:30 You've sold me. Now the question is: is there any chance in hell he falls to #3? He seems to be emerging as the consensus top talent, and with new ownership in Houston I'd be surprised if they pass on the top talent to pick a college guy just because they hope to get a faster riser. Houston needs impact talent at all levels of the organization, not quick help. I'd love it if he fell, but I'm preparing myself for either Zunnino or an out-of-nowhere pick that no analyst anywhere linked to the Mariners even once during months and months and months of analysis and mock drafts. Yeah, that Hultzen pick was a bit of a surprise... |
| 15. By: d2ret on 04-20-2012 23:22:59 How much have you heard about Soler? If he were in this draft, where would he be ranked? |
| 16. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-21-2012 01:20:52 Soler would be a top 10 pick, maybe in the top 3. |
| 17. By: maqman on 04-21-2012 10:27:54 Given that Soler isn't covered by the new CBA limitations and the Cespedes deal seemingly being a decent get I'd imagine Soler will cost into eight figures. The Yankees are supposedly in love with him but Oakland showed an AL West bottom dweller can beat them out now The Boss is dead and his bean counter son objects to paying the luxury tax. |
| 18. By: Timberwolf on 04-21-2012 11:49:27 I trust Jack, and I find it hard to believe that he would pass on Buxton if he's available. Pretty impressive results of last three drafts, but I was surprised that Nick Franklin's ceiling appears so low. |
| 19. By: Juan Valdez on 04-21-2012 22:27:10 "I was surprised that Nick Franklin's ceiling appears so low." If Franklin can become an average major league player, that's pretty damn solid in my opinion. We need legitimate major leaguers. Period. They don't have to be superstars. |
| 20. By: StandinPat on 04-22-2012 15:58:27 Yeah, everyday SS with above average power for the position isn't exactly striking me as "low ceiling" either |
| 21. By: Marlin Man on 04-22-2012 20:22:46 I would take Franklin over what we have playing there TODAY. M.M. |
| 22. By: dewey on 04-23-2012 07:48:57 #21 Remember he is facing AA pitching not major league guys everyday its a huge diffrence.I believe from what i read i have never seen him in person that Franklin is right where he should be and getting better sometimes these guys have to learn the ropes in the minors before they get to majors and face the best. |
| 23. By: Shawnuel on 04-23-2012 08:30:43 I suspect that Marlin Man feels the same way, Dewey. I think he was just voicing an editorial comment on how dire our current MLB SS situation is. |
| 24. By: amac360 on 04-23-2012 09:47:14 Random question, do Bellingham Bells players get payed? It is technically a professional team. |
| 25. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-23-2012 12:56:45 amac360, Yes. Not very much, however. |
| 26. By: Mackie on 04-23-2012 13:06:57 With the Mariners offense as historically bad as it has been, I'd be fine with an entire lineup of major-league-average hitters. It seems that would be enough to score an average of more than 3 runs plus change per game. So far this season the averages for AL teams are BA .253, OBP .321, SLG .411 and OPS .732 with an average runs scored per game of 4.25. For those stats the Mariners are at 3.53 |
| 27. By: Mackie on 04-23-2012 13:09:18 Sorry, I hit the wrong button and posted too quickly. To finish, for those stats so far this year the Mariners are at .223, .274, .342 and .616 with an average of 3.53 runs per game. So yes, "league average" sounds great to me when it comes to offense for the M's. |
| 28. By: Marlin Man on 04-23-2012 19:10:14 Jason- not sure this is the right place to ask, but?? How does Vasquez look down at Tacoma? Stats look outstanding- is he ready to bring it up here? M.M. |
| 29. By: rotoenquire on 04-23-2012 20:43:19 As we get closer the draft boards have changed a lot, as to be expected. However the changed by observers based on projected talent does not change who will be picked. Appel by Hou. I still feel is there top choice. Pitching is always at a premium and with Buxton committed to go too College and play both football and baseball. Houston may take the safer option. Minn. picking at #2 seems more the team to take a chance on drafting Buxton. I am not 100% sold on this kid. His talent at a young age is very good. However (GA) high school baseball players have fallen short in resent draft history. The last high school (GA) player to be drafted and make an imnpact in the pros. was B. Hall. The next closest player maybe B. Hamilton in High-A for Cin he has the potential too be an impact player. The M's do not go for the usual suspects when drafting. They go for best talent. What is the best talent? Breaking down what I have seen they look at the following. if a player is a Left or Right handing batter or pitcher, knowledge, tools, growth potential. Need never enters the consideration I believe. So who will the M's pick? In no particular order. K. Zimmer RP M. Zunino C M. Fred LP D. Marrero SS I really like Zunino, but I have a feeling about M. Fred. Fred a Left handed pitcher with a ton of upside seems too fit in the M's wheelhouse. |
| 30. By: zackr on 04-24-2012 10:01:42 Hey JAC, If we take the catcher - Zunino, is he head and shoulders above the rest of the catchers in our lower affiliates? |
| 31. By: dewey on 04-24-2012 12:41:05 Can Zunino catch and throw or is he just a offensive type guy? Ive read where is dad is a scout for someone do you know who? |
| 32. By: bb4ever on 04-24-2012 15:31:26 "Ive read where is dad is a scout for someone do you know who?" The Reds. |
| 33. By: rotoenquire on 04-25-2012 08:29:29 His dad was a mlb player and a catcher. From everything I have seen his defense and game calling are MLB ready. His bat needs some work, that being said for a guy needing to work on his bat, Zunino was in the top 3 of almost every offensive catagory in his conferance in college. He could be up with whatever club that drafts him within 2 years. |
| 34. By: akplaya907 on 04-25-2012 19:38:36 I also went to JDHS and have played baseball with Baker almost my whole life and I can safely say that he is not a jerk, in fact he's a very nice guy. On the baseball side of things, as of last week he topped out at 98 on his fastball has a curve (79-81) and a slider which has topped at 88. |
| 35. By: slamcactus on 04-26-2012 14:57:51 RE: Georgia hs players, that Jason Heyward kid has certainly made something of an impact in his short time in the bigs... Not picking someone because of geography is downright silly. Scouts have had dozens of opportunities to see each of these guys on the showcase circuit against top competition. Draft based on talent. Ignore where the guy comes from. |
| 36. By: rotoenquire on 05-02-2012 18:05:03 Was just an observation, the rest of your statement repeats what I said..TY After listening to some of the guys on our local ESPN and KJR as well as some national talk today on Sirius. I would put Zunino #1 on my draft board for the M's. However like I have said before M. Fred LP for some reason strikes me as a JackZ kinda kid. |
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