| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 03-18-2012 |
Starting, well, right now, and every weekend hereafter through draft day -- June 4 -- I'll share thoughts and buzz around the draft scene of the class of 2012. I'll see players, swap notes with scouts and those that appear relevant I will pass along.My pre-season Top 100 can be found here, and my first Mock Draft can be found here. The draft order can be found here.
Let's get to it.
First-round buzz
The hot name at the top of the draft is San Francisco right-hander Kyle Zimmer, who was at it again Friday night with a complete-game shutout. Zimmer was not at his best -- he walked four, which is four times as many as he'd walked in his previous three outings, but he also fanned 11 and allowed just three hits.
He's got a few mechanical issues scouts don’t love, but word is they are all easily fixable. If he can add some movement to the fastball -- it's fairly straight, though he does throw downhill to an extent -- there may be a chance he becomes a No. 1 starter.
Zimmer sits right there with Stanford righty Mark Appel, who was off this week, and LSU right-hander Kevin Gausman, who whiffed 11 over 8 2/3 innings Friday night and is likely to go in the top 10.
Lucas Giolito, who has been out a few weeks after suffering what was called a sprain of the ulnar collateral ligament -- the one that, if torn, generally requires Tommy John surgery to repair -- but his stock is in a holding pattern until he's able to return to action. There are hints this weekend that he may resume throwing soon and could get back on the mound in a game in early April.
Mike Zunino continues to roll along as the top collegiate bat in the class and is hitting .422/.487/.844 with six doubles and seven homers heading into the Gators' series finale versus Vanderbilt. Zunino is going to be considered by most of the clubs in the top 10, with the possible exceptions of the Orioles and Royals, who select in the No. 4 and 5 spots.
Duke's Marcus Stroman rebounded from a so-so outing last week to strike out 13 in seven innings versus Miami, a solid opponent. He walked two and allowed an earned run on six hits. Stroman is now 2-2 with a 2.70 ERA over five starts, and has struck out 52 against 13 walks in 33 1/3 innings. He's just 5-foot-9 and there are questions about the third pitch, command and control consistencies, so scouts worry that he won't be able to hold up in a starting role. The size means less to me than the other concerns, since Stroman is a sturdy 195 pounds with a very strong lower half.
There are scouts that love Deven Marrero, the star shortstop at Arizona State, and then there are those that simply think he's a good player that comes with good value. Marrero is a plus defensive shortstop with a good approach at the plate and gap power, but he's yet to get hot, entering play Sunday with a .339/.387/.500 line. He does show enough pop for a shortstop and makes good contact -- he's homered as many times as he's struck out (2) and isn't likely to get beyond the top 10.
Targets for the Mariners | Nos. 3, 64, 98, 126, 131
The M's, who pick No. 3 overall behind the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins, are certain to at least consider Zunino, Marrero and prep outfielder Byron Buxton. This fits the club's organizational need for position players, but they may also take a close look at Zimmer, Gausman, Appel and Giolito.
Getting the best signable talent is the most important thing, regardless of what position he plays, and the M's proved how that can work in a club's favor when they dealt from their organizational strength and sent Michael Pineda to New York in exchange for Jesus Montero.
We're 78 days from draft day, so a lot can happen and players can improve their stock or lose some momentum and drop down draft boards, but don't be surprised if a pitcher is the No. 3 pick come June 4.
Me? If the draft were today, I'd take Buxton, Giolito or Zunino. Buxton and Giolito come with big upside and Zunino is as quick-to-the-bigs at catcher as anyone in the draft in a long time. If Giolito's injury becomes an issue, the clubs drafting in the top 5 aren't likely to take such a risk, which could leave Houston and Minnesota to Appel and Buxton, clearing the way for Zunino, at least if it were up to me.
In that scenario, Marrero, Zunino, Gausman and Zimmer probably end up the most likely. Again, though, it's super early and the likes of shortstop Carlos Correa and perhaps Texas A&M righty Michael Wacha could earn their way up the board.
Prep
Day 2 candidate Skye Bolt is hitting .414 with nine extra-base hits -- six doubles, three homers -- and eight stolen bases through 10 games and has been walked intentionally on seven occasions. Four of the 10 contests took place against improved competition in Gainesville, Florida. Bolt, a 6-foot-3, 175-pound centerfielder from Holy Innocents' Episcopal in Atlanta, is a plus runner with a 55 or 60 arm and is a switch hitter. He's better as a right-handed bat. He's committed to North Carolina, but is one of my sleeper candidates. I ranked him as the No. 7 prep outfielder in the class.
Giolito's teammate, lefty Max Fried, who is a top-10 candidate himself, rebounded from two not-so-good outings to strike out 10 in a 3-1 win Friday. Fried needs to be consistent to stay in the top half of the first round. I spoke to a crosschecker recently about his commitment to UCLA.
"I wouldn't say we expect Max to go to UCLA," the scout said. "But if his stock falls enough he could head to school and might have a shot at No. 1 (overall) in 2015. He's awfully good, though."
Walker Weickel, from Olympia High School in Orlando, has been impressive early on, striking out 10 or more in all but one start, as has right-hander Ty Buttrey (pictured above) from Providence High School in North Carolina. Buttrey, who has committed to Arkansas, touched 95 mph last week and could move into Day 1 consideration with more of the same.
For the record, the first day consists of 60 picks this year.
College
My pre-season sleeper was Arkansas infielder Matt Reynolds. He's playing mostly third base but has experience at shortstop and has been consistent at the plate thus far.
Reynolds is not a first-round talent but could be a Kyle Seager type selection in round two or three. Through 19 games, the 6-foot-1, 200-pound Tulsa native is batting .375/.494/.609 with 16 walks versus seven strikeouts. He's logged nine extra-base hits and six steals. I'd like to see if Reynolds can play some second base, too, because he's not likely to profile well at third due to a lack of ideal power. He can hit, though.
At Florida, Zunino's teammates, shortstop Nolan Fontana and left-hander Brian Johnson, receive top 50 grades from just about anyone and everyone. Both could land in the first round. Right-hander Hudson Randall and outfielder Preston Tucker, a senior, are also expected to be drafted. But right-hander Austin Maddox is getting some attention, too.
Maddox, a former full-time catcher and third baseman, is sitting 91-93 mph and bumping 94 with an improved slider he's using as an out pitch.
Most importantly, Maddox is ferociously attacking the strike zone and commanding his fastball well. He's up to 15 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing eight hits -- five singles and three doubles -- and has not walked a soul. He's whiffed 22 and has not thrown a wild pitch or hit a batter. The 6-foot-3, 235-pound closer could be a late Day 1 or early Day 2 selection if a club wants a cheaper signing because they spent a little more of their allotted pool on earlier picks.
draft-weekly:-march-18,-2012
Comments
The following 34 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: shemberry on 03-18-2012 09:01:51 I am hoping the Ms get one of Buxton, Zunino, Correa or Appel, but to be honest I trust the front office to get it right and they know a lot more than I do. |
| 2. By: sexymarinersfan on 03-18-2012 10:02:13 I agree, I trust the FO's decision. I'd be happy with a pitcher, especially Gausman since he pitches for my LSU Tigers. Buxton is my favorite of the bunch though, then Zunino, then Gausman. Can you imagine if we had both Zunino and Montero in the same lineup someday?! Oooooohhh!!! That would be sweet!! |
| 3. By: Rudolf on 03-18-2012 11:55:11 Is Zunino in consideration for the #1 overall pick? It sounds like you can't go wrong with him, and he's a certain top-10 guy, still he's often mentioned as someone we can practically count on to be there at #3. What would a college catcher have to do to be considered the top talent in the draft? |
| 4. By: maqman on 03-18-2012 12:14:16 Being named Joe Mauer might help. The thing with Zunino is if the M's pick him at #3 what does that tell Montero about his future chances of being the catcher? It's kind of hard then to tell him they are going to give him every chance to be the full time catcher, plus if he is capable of handling the job where do they stick Zunino? Although catchers are almost as good as pitchers as trade bait these days, as Montero proved. |
| 5. By: rocketdawg31 on 03-18-2012 12:22:34 The thing with Zunino is if the M's pick him at #3 what does that tell Montero about his future chances of being the catcher? It's kind of hard then to tell him they are going to give him every chance to be the full time catcher, plus if he is capable of handling the job where do they stick Zunino? If Montero asks you "what's up?" on that, you would tell him that you did what a good org does, and drafted the BEST talent available (if they determined Zunino to be so, that is)- regardless of the position or what your big league roster looks like at the moment. You might also casually mention that the guy needs to prove himself in the minors before he gets an audition anywhere on the club. Then you would tell Montero to have fun and go out, hit .280 for the big club the rest of the year. Bottom line, if Montero worries about who the team drafts #3 overall? He's not putting enough time in to thinking about what he needs to do to thrive as a major-leaguer. And I think he knows that. Therefore, I think it'd be a non-issue with him. |
| 6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-18-2012 13:09:40 Rudolf, I don't think so. I get the vibe right now that Houston is hottest on Appel and Buxton. I think they consider Zunino but that he won't be in their top 3. On Montero... he doesn't care. He's a bat, Zunino won't be suiting up in the bigs until at least 2014 sometime. |
| 7. By: johnburkland on 03-18-2012 13:47:33 I know this is stupid as one player has no relationship to the other, but just out of curiosity, what separates Zunino from Jeff Clement? |
| 8. By: sexymarinersfan on 03-18-2012 14:15:30 Nobody knows yet except what the scouting reports say. This is why I'd be fine with a pitcher if the FO isn't quite sold on Zunino. |
| 9. By: rjfrik on 03-18-2012 16:08:47 Give me Buxton or Zunino. That's my 1,2 and I'm sure that one of the two will be sitting there at the third pick. Very exciting. |
| 10. By: rocketdawg31 on 03-18-2012 22:49:44 I know this is stupid as one player has no relationship to the other, but just out of curiosity, what separates Zunino from Jeff Clement? Zunino hits righty, Clement was a lefty. Coming out of USC, Clement was probably considered to have 60 power potential....more than what is expected out of Zunino. And even in high school, Zunino was a better defensive catcher than what Clement ever dreamed of being. |
| 11. By: rocketdawg31 on 03-18-2012 22:54:42 For the record, Zunino is my #1 hope- but I'll trust whatever Zduriencik/McNamara decide upon. I'm not that sold on Buxton. |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-19-2012 00:41:53 johnburkland, The biggest difference is durability and strength. Clement couldn't handle catching regularly; he had multiple knee procedures and more than one bout with elbow problems -- each elbow. Zunino is a better athlete, sturdier. |
| 13. By: Rudolf on 03-19-2012 08:07:34 If Clement has 60 power and Zunino has less--say 55-- and there is no guarantee that Zunino sticks at catcher in MLB (unless he develops further), how on earth is this guy a top 3 pick? Napoli is pretty cool and all, yet he isn't top 3 caliber. Not even close. How much better is Zunino than a guy like Grandal, who was picked 12th overall? Shouldn't he be substantially better, especially since Grandal could have slipped further into the 1st round? Am I delusional to expect a stand-out, All*Star type bat with the #3 pick? I seriously hope that a few players exhibit extraordinary talent the next two months, because as of now I am really unimpressed with our options. |
| 14. By: BennyG on 03-19-2012 11:33:56 Whatever player the FO decides to go with I'll be fine with. They have done a fairly excellent job at bringing in great pieces throughout the organization. I wonder if they view the AAA and MLB rosters as quality enough to look at drafting an incredibly high upside high school prospect at #3. Or do they still want to get college players that are closer to ready/more polished? |
| 15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-19-2012 13:22:40 Rudolf, You can't take tools grades and run with them like that. It's just physical. Clement had 60 raw power, Zunino's is probably about that, too, but his hit tool is better and he's a stronger, sturdier defender who is better now than Clement has been at any point in his career. A term that helps explain the difference between the two is "probability." And no, you aren't delusional, but it's about value. Player A: Projects as a .290/.370/.520 bat Player B: Projects as a .270/.350/.480 bat Player A isn't necessarily the best player or the player a club should select with their draft pick. Probability, ETAG (expected time of arrival gap) and defensive value are major factors. Player A might be one of the first baseman in the draft class. Christian Walker, Adam Walker, Joey Gallo. Player B might be Zunino, a player just about everyone I talk to believes he's an adequate pro catcher. You don't just draft the best hitter, you draft the best player. Even ignoring pitching for a second, Marrero and Zunino are better picks than either Walker. Mostly for defensive value, but also because of probability. |
| 16. By: Edman on 03-19-2012 14:46:17 What a change in culture. Five years ago, there would have been no trust that the M's front office could make the right choice. It's nice to see some skepticism vanish. |
| 17. By: rjfrik on 03-19-2012 16:13:10 Well look who was in charge 5 years ago Edman? The worst GM in the history of the game. Replace him with just about anyone and your skepticism will vanish. Hell I would be happier with you being our GM over Bavasi. Anyone and that includes my 9 year old nephew could do a better job then that retread. |
| 18. By: dewey on 03-19-2012 20:54:37 #17 agreed i douby Jack will get to see this through.All of us have been through the prospect hype before and i hope they our right but the kids never our whats advertised in the end. Jason how much did KUO cost us i couldnt figure out the money? Go mariners stike cespedas out every time.. |
| 19. By: Rudolf on 03-19-2012 21:17:15 Thanks for the response, Jason. If Zunino delivered the above slash line with above average defense, is that worthy of a #3 overall pick? I trust the F.O. and don't have a problem with safe picks, but these projections leave me wanting. It would seem that top-10 catchers usually carry more offensive upside, i.e. Posey, Mauer, Weiters. Are we downplaying Zunino’s upside? |
| 20. By: rjfrik on 03-19-2012 21:52:47 I don't think some of you comprehend how great a season .270/.350/.480 is for a catcher. Just to put that into perspective. Only one catcher had a better season then that last year. Alex Aliva, he had an OPS of .895. Every other catcher, including Weiters, Posey, Mauer, Santana, Montero, McCann, etc. had an OPS lower then Jason's predicted OPS of .830 for Zunino. If Zunino can consistently give us an OPS in the .830's as a catcher, with good defense, that is a high draft pick worth selecting. In 10' only Mauer and V. Martinez had an OPS above .830. If Zunino posted a line like that every year he would be a perennial All-Star and Future Hall of Famer. |
| 21. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-20-2012 01:04:34 dewey, The M's deal with Kuo was for $500k, but since they released by the March 19 deadline, they only have to pay him 30 days of termination pay of about 83 grand. If they would have waited beyond March 19 but before the March 26 deadline, they would have owed him 45 days termination pay, which would have been 125k. Any time after that and it's the entire $500,000. Rudolf, You have to take "value' and "worth" into the context of the particular draft. Not all classes are created equal. If Zunino is the best player on the board, then he's worth the No. 3 pick, regardless of what his numbers and value may be in the end. |
| 22. By: Rudolf on 03-20-2012 08:40:53 Absolutely, Jason. And thank you again for taking the time to respond. rjfrik, I agree that those numbers are nothing to sneeze at, especially from catcher. But ideally, in a better draft class, you can select a player who, while maybe not a catcher, will make a greater offensive and defensive impact. There is no Teixeira, Tulowitzki, Longoria, Machado, etc, in this draft. If Zunino is the best hitter on the board then it's a good pick, (unless we should be drafting a pitcher for BPA). I do love the idea that Zunino would help the big club soon. |
| 23. By: maqman on 03-20-2012 12:20:06 Jason: Thanks for the cost details on Kuo, I was wondering about that too. Edman: I agree the trust in the FO to get it right on draft day is really refreshing. It seems that this is not a great draft class this year but I wonder if Z & Co. could pick out a sleeper like they did with Walker. It will also be interesting to see how the financial restraints in the new CBA plays out in teams draft strategies. The new IFA signing restraints will also change things quite a bit. If nothing else that will put and end to the Rangers writing $5,000,000 checks. |
| 24. By: rjfrik on 03-20-2012 12:38:02 Rudolf, I know it kind of sucks there aren't a group of big college bats this year like in years past. It's kind of a weak class in that regard. The best bats are Zunino that might be a 5-10 pick in other drafts and Buxton, a kid that can rake, but is an upside HS bat. I wish there was a Tex, Tulo and Longo bat each in this draft, so we could just pick the one that fits in best. But it is what it is. With a top 3 pick we still should get a great player no matter who that player may be. It's exciting. |
| 25. By: Rudolf on 03-20-2012 16:33:12 Exciting, sure. New players, greater hope, always exciting. Buxton, Zunino, Appel, Zimmer, all make the M's better, which is exciting. Still, the thought of adding Alex Avila doesn't get me goosebumpy. He's good, I know, but if we signed him in free agency I'd probably fist pump and get over it because he's a "piece to the puzzle" kind of guy. Now if we added Jason Heyward in free agency (somehow), I'd be giddy like Chuck E. Cheese in the middle 80's. I'd be drunk with anticipation. That's how I'd like to view this pick: drunken idiot flapping around at the prospect of adding a superstar to the line-up. It doesn't sound like Zunino provides that opportunity (for me). |
| 26. By: Slack on 03-20-2012 17:29:23 I'd be thrilled to get Zunino. He has the potential to stick at catcher and provide above average production for the position. If he reaches his ceiling, he would be hitting better than most of the catchers in MLB. I'd take that! I'll also go on record with most everyone else by saying that I trust this front office to make a good pick. Its so nice not to have to worry about that anymore. I remember being terrified in 2007 that the Mariners would take Casey Weathers (not that Aumont worked out either). Then, in 2008, my worst fears were realized when they tabbed Josh Fields. Those days appear to be over. |
| 27. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-20-2012 20:06:04 Rudolf, The thought of adding 2011 version of Alex Avila doesn't excite you? Really? That's a star. Not just a one-time all-star, but a legit star. Not all drafts present the chance to add a flashy future hall of famer. By your expectations, Ackley was a bad pick. And I am not ASKING if that is what you believe, that IS what you believe, considering your expressed thoughts in this thread. |
| 28. By: rjfrik on 03-20-2012 20:55:35 Couldn't of said it better my self Jason. We have the third pick in the draft not the first. To get the type of player (superstar position player) with the third pick it has to be an incredibly deep draft. Since 1990 only three drafts have had the players to get the player you want with the third pick 05, 02 or 92. That's 21 years and only three drafts had a superstar that could be selected at 3. I would take Avila in a heartbeat and that is the type of player Zunino is. By the way Buxton could be that superstar. We shall see. |
| 29. By: rjfrik on 03-20-2012 21:01:54 Sorry I made an error. After reading I realize 02 should be 08. 02 was a week year. |
| 30. By: Jason A. Churchill on 03-21-2012 01:28:36 Buxton could very well be ... but it'll take 4-6 years to get him to the bigs, and there's big risk that he isn't a star at all. |
| 31. By: Rudolf on 03-21-2012 08:24:39 Excuse me if Alex Avila doesn't excite me. He had a nice year. I followed it relatively closely. I understand he has value. He may be a star, but only because he did it from catcher. Dustin Ackley was, IMO, the best player available and we were smart to take him. I followed every game of his junior year. There was a lot of hype around him. He was a future batting champion type who could develop 20 homer power. He has plus plus batting eye. And yes, it was a little disappointing that there wasn't a power bat there. I think a lot of people felt that way. He sure wasn't Strasburg. Maybe what is missing is the hype. Appel had some hype, but that has tarnished. Zunino, a supreme candidate for hype, is being billed as some above average guy who could be drafted anywhere in the top-10. Weiters, Posey, Mauer were all billed as superstars. Zunino not so much. And all is quiet on the Buxton front. I've heard the Upton brothers comps, and truthfully that is the most exciting thing I've heard about this entire first round. Maybe I'm in a mood right now. I'm sure I'd love zunino as much as I do Ackley. Sue me for being a little disappointed at what I'm hearing thus far about our options. |
| 32. By: rjfrik on 03-21-2012 09:59:00 Rudolf, The only guy on the trio that was billed as a superstar was Mauer. He was the first pick and literally billed as a superstar player. Weiters and Posey were both billed exactly like Zunino is, a solid college bat at catcher (if not one of the best) and great defense. Weiters and Posey went with the 5th pick in their respected drafts. Just like where Zunino is projected to go. The comp between Zunino and those guys is very comparable. And frankly if he has a projection slash line in his career like the one Jason suggested earlier, then he would be a better player then both Weiters and Posey. That should excite you. Anyways. Hope you get excited as the draft gets closer. Be thankful that we have the 3rd pick in this draft and not the 11th. This just isn't a very deep draft and it is a real added bonus to have a top 3 pick this year. |
| 33. By: Rudolf on 03-21-2012 12:40:15 If the comp between the Zunino and Posey is very similar then I'm excited. Much of my questioning in this thread was an effort to discern that. From what I've read and heard, it sounds like Posey is billed as a middle of the order bat capable of driving an offense. Based on what Jason has said in this thread and in his scouting report I haven't got the impression Zunino is thought of that way. I got the impression he is more of a number six type hitter. |
| 34. By: Ungnome on 03-21-2012 14:01:50 Hype = Production. Dont you guys know anything? |
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