Prospect Insider - Draft Wrap 2011

Draft Wrap 2011

By Jason A. Churchill

By 06-09-2011

The Seattle Mariners selected 51 players in the First-Year Player's Draft this week, and we're here to give you a better idea of how the club did and about those players selected.

Danny Hultzen will not go down as a major bust for the M's, barring injury which can't be blamed on the club, and while I, and many talent evaluators, graded a number of other players ahead of the left-hander, he's not the worst pick of the draft for the M's, nor is he the best. For all those connotations, including the best of the class, read on.

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Friday night we'll hand out grades in the Draft Report Card.

draft-wrap-2011

Comments
The following 25 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: sexymarinersfan on 06-09-2011 20:01:48
I for one think Hultzen is going to be a terrific pitcher for the M's. I'm wondering how hard it's going to be to get Cron to sign with us. TCU usually gets they're man is what I'm hearing.

2. By: FWBrodie on 06-09-2011 20:35:39
Jason, how would you compare Miller and Nick Franklin and also how far away do you believe Miller to be developmentally.

3. By: baseballman on 06-09-2011 20:36:55
I'm really hoping we get Cron signed. Having someone with his kind of power is something this system has lacked for quite some time. He may be raw, but where JAC ranked his power on the 20-80 is just ridiculous. We need him.

I don't think anyone can honestly say they weren't shocked with us not only going pitcher and selecting Hultzen at #2, but also selecting Miller at #62. I have high hopes that both will be players for us in near future. Both advanced college guys who shouldn't need too much time in the minors (Miller will need more than Hultzen). And if Miller can stick at SS, then Jack and Tom will look like geniuses once again.

4. By: 36148 on 06-09-2011 20:49:18
Cron = Poythress?

5. By: Jerry on 06-09-2011 21:43:57
Great info.

I think its awesome that we have someone with Jason's skills, connections, and insight following the M's this closely. I imagine that team-specific coverage of this quality is rare. Thanks Jason.

6. By: sexymarinersfan on 06-09-2011 23:37:11
The blogs and scouting reports that I've mainly been hearing are that Cron has a better and more power than Poythress. He's strictly a DH that is too big to play catcher. He might play some 1st base occassionally.

7. By: rjfrik on 06-10-2011 00:08:52
Cron is a much better player then Poythress. Poythress has no chance to crack a big league lineup. Cron has the potential to be Paul Konerko or Greg Luganski or Cecil Fielder.

Hultzen is going to be great.

Miller is the wildcard to me. I see nothing more then Willie Bloomquist.

8. By: Adam P. Boyd on 06-10-2011 01:02:51
rj - No offense, but if you are going to have such strong opinions, at least make sure they are based on some bit of fact or reality.

"Poythress has no chance to crack a big league lineup" - why? Based on what? Have you been watching him play? Have you been scouting him personally?

And Miller is nothing more than Willie Bloomquist?? Based on WHAT? He hit 4 home runs at Arizona State his junior season with metal bats. Miller hit double that with metal bats his sophomore season. He is also 3 inches taller than Bloomquist and a lot more projectable.

You realize Poythress was highly regarded in the 2009 draft by certain people? "Cron is a much better player than Poythress" - why? If you are going to toss something out there you have to back it up, man.

Poythress was Keith Law's #25 prospect in his top 100 before the 2009 draft, writing "Poythress is a big, strong, slow power hitter whose build and approach bring to mind big leaguers like Jim Thome and Frank Thomas." Cron ranked #72 on Law's list this year.

I am not at all imply that is conclusive, but stating that Cron is a much better player than Poythress is silly at this stage - even if he may have more raw power, and comparing Miller to the 5'11 Bloomquist seems a bit out of place to me as well.

9. By: Adam P. Boyd on 06-10-2011 01:06:16
And I would be remiss if I did not mention how great a job you did while covering the draft, Jason. Top notch stuff.

10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-10-2011 02:04:56
Thanks for the kind words, guys. I came up short on volume, but the four-letter network calls, and I have a life outside of baseball... sorta.

11. By: sexymarinersfan on 06-10-2011 04:48:15
Baseball is my life. You should do what your passionate about. Then it doesn't really seem like work at all.

12. By: rocketdawg31 on 06-10-2011 06:09:26

Baseball is my life. You should do what your passionate about. Then it doesn't really seem like work at all.

Amen to that. My brother still jokes that I should've become a baseball writer instead of a screenplay writer/musician.

Jason, I have a question regarding Vinnie Catricala in High Desert. I know it's High Desert, I almost discount ANY huge numbers I see from a player in that place....but the guy is just slaying the ball at the plate. He's among the org leaders in every conceivable category.

Even with all that, I know he's no blue-chip 'spect..but where is he maybe putting himself as far as "Top 30" picture goes- and is there legit reason to think decent major-league ceiling on the guy?

13. By: 36148 on 06-10-2011 09:10:27
Which is closer to an accurate summary of the draft? (29 pitchers/6 catchers....57% of the draft was pitchers):
"M's stocked up on pitchers and drafted catchers for them to throw to.
Or....M's restocked the minor leagues with catchers and drafted pitchers to throw to them."

14. By: Jerry on 06-10-2011 09:52:47
I'm glad we have the draft, because the big league club is pretty dull right now. Kennedy and Olivo batted 3/4 for us last night! Can't really imagine a more brutal lineup.

This club really needs some reinforcements, or at least to give some prospects a chance to play. I gotta think we'll see Ackley very soon. But 3B is also a HUGE hole. I didn't have high expectations for this team, but the offense is waaaaay worse than I had ever imagined. Just brutal.

At least we have the international free agent signing period and the trade deadline coming up. Hope this club gets more exciting soon.

15. By: rjfrik on 06-10-2011 12:19:43
Adam,

These are simply my opinions. I have seen Proythress play live. I live in California and watch a few games a year at High Desert.

I apologize if my statement was so blunt. I should of never said he has no chance to crack a big league lineup. He obviously could down the road. When I saw him in High Desert, his swing seemed long and a bit slow and he had trouble catching up to better pitching. I also think he benefited from his park factor significantly last year.

Simply my opinion.

I have never seen Cron live, but watching his video's his power is undeniable. It's light tower power and I think as a High School kid coming into the organization he might represent, right now, the best power in our system. Just my opinion once again. I can't wait for Cron to get up to A+ ball so I can go watch him live.

About Miller, all I can go by is watching his college baseball games on t.v. and some video and I'm not overly impressed. I think he has the tools to make the bigs, but I don't think he has the tools to be anything great. Thus the Bloomquist reference. Bloomquist isn't a bad player, has athleticism, speed and can handle the bat some. But he isn't anything more then a glorified utility player. I can't help but think that's the path Miller will go down. I honest to god hope I'm wrong and Miller turns into Cal Ripken.

If Miller turns into Cal Ripken and Poythress turns into Jim Rice, we will all be happy, right Adam Boyd?

16. By: rjfrik on 06-10-2011 12:24:21
Jerry,

You are right about the glaring holes in offense. But I feel they are starting a youth movement to see what they have moving forward. I would expect Ackley to be up any day. I would also expect as we regress towards are norm, a ball club that is .500 or a few games under .500 we will start to explore trade opportunities to infuse some young talent into the lineup. And come September we could see more kids from the farm.

Hope is not lost. Direction looks good for this ball club, it's just a slow, boring process during the wait.

On another note; What the hell is wrong with Ichiro?

Do you guys think his 200 hit season streak is in Jeopardy?

It's strange to watch one of the all time great hitters not hit. It's like living in another dimension. Very weird.

17. By: Adam P. Boyd on 06-10-2011 12:42:31
I live in California too, and have seen Poythress myself. Just so you know his actual line was .314/.390/.572 and his park adjusted stats, for what he would have done in a neutral park in his league was .306/.382/.528 - so obviously, yes, he was helped a bit, but not that much really.

Clearly Poythress has holes, but I was merely having an issue with you saying that he had no shot of cracking a big league lineup. I think we all could have made such sweeping claims about Halman after his disasterous AA showing, so lets not let ~125 crappy PAs for Poythress force us to write him off.

And Miller just has a lot more athleticism and a much better body than Bloomquist ever did. I just don't think it is a very good comp because Bloomquist is a terrible player and in 778 games he has a career fWAR of +0.8. Obviously many people are making the Craig Counsell comp with Miller - similar size, similar positional issues, similar tools, similar swing from the left side - and Counsell was able to amass a +20.7 fWAR over 1,561 big league games. From what I have seen, I can definitely see the comparisons - Counsell was never able to generate much pop, got on base some, could run a bit - he was also a pretty damn good defender, something Miller needs to show.

Regardless, I am just saying it is silly to write either of those guys off at this point by saying Poythress is nothing, and Miller is just a replacement level player like Bloomquist.

18. By: zackr on 06-10-2011 12:55:50
@16,17 -

I feel like just about every comment here needs to begin with "I'm not a scout and have little to no idea of what I'm talking about, but..."

The conversation about newly drafted talent is a fun one to have, but I think that we are misreading a comment to take from it that the author thinks their word is gospel (besides Edman, of course) - no matter how 'matter of fact' their writing style may seem.

19. By: Adam P. Boyd on 06-10-2011 13:59:43
You don't need to arbitrate zackr, it is a friendly discussion, ha.

Rj can have his opinions and hold them as strongly as he desires, I was merely disagreeing.

20. By: Edman on 06-10-2011 14:20:43
Nobody knows how these kids are going to turn out, not even the teams that draft them. Anyone here to believe they do only needs to look at the many post-draft assessments from fans and writers that never come to fruition. There are many great players who have come from middle rounds. For instance, a mediocre starter in college can become a decent reliever, because they don't necessarily need the pitch selection that a starter needs to be successful.

On the subject of this draft, I find it odd that people are splitting hairs over drafting someone other than Hultzen. I was shocked like everyone else. Why? Not because he was a bad choice, but because his name had not been associated to the Mariners. It just means that Jack runs a tight ship. And, I do believe they were debating it up until the announcement, which they should do. Yes, some are crying foul over which of six very good players, who in previous years, would have probably been #1 overall selections. The talent was that good.

However, something else to consider. If the pitching talent at the top of the draft has similar impact potential, wouldn't handedness be a factor too? Typically, teams covet lefthanders. So, taking a stab at that thought, if Hultzen and Bauer graded out very similarly, in regard to development, wouldn't a slight edge to to Hultzen?

Bottom line is, we got a great baseball player. Seattle didn't dig down for a bottom first round guy. It's like complaining that Seattle's 911 Targa isn't as good as Arizona's because it's not as cool a color. It's still a 911 Targa.

21. By: gwangung on 06-10-2011 21:17:44
Yeah, I'm still having problems wrapping my mind around the concept that Hultzen was a "reach" when he was ranked anywhere from 3 to 7 on all the boards of a very deep draft. It implies a precision (as opposed to accuracy) in projecting talent that I don't think is there. Perhaps saw the rise in velocity in the past year and thought there was a bit more there than most people; perhaps he looked at the tactical approach and saw more in the mental game than others. If Arizona was going to pick him right after us, I'm not sure why everyone is so upset.

22. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-10-2011 21:49:57
gwangung,

There are clubs that had Hultzen 1, clubs that had him 3, clubs that had him 12-15. But the difference in talent between one spot can be rather large considering the lack of differential in ranking. Assessing the situation the way you just did is extremely shortsighted.

And I don't remember anyone saying here -- and certainly not me -- that Hultzen won't be good or that it was a horrible pick. But I have spoken to scouting directors, crosscheckers and other chief scouts of at least 10 teams and not one of them thought Hultzen was the second best player in the draft, nor do they see him as a future No. 1. About half see a good No. 3 starter that reaches the majors for good in June of 2012.

If those 10ish teams are correct, the Mariners are not, and passed on a number of better talents just do they could add a rarity and a player that helps sooner rather than later.

These aren't guesses here, as I wrote in the prior paragraph, this is stuff I KNOW. You don't have to believe any of it, but Hultzen was a reach in the minds of so many, I am finding it difficult to believe it was not.

23. By: Edman on 06-11-2011 02:00:19
Perhaps they did, Jason. There appears to be no ML ready pitching at Tacoma. Jackson doesn't have any pitching that's close in my eyes. The best starting candidate at the moment is Taiwan Walker, and he's realistically three years away. Vargas is going to start getting expansive. Paxton is probably two years away, based on his lack of command.

Why is that important? Perhaps they see Vargas as getting expensive, and may try to deal him for help with the offense.

Starting pitching is always a high value item in trade.

Ultimately, we'll see if the Mariners were right or wrong. And if they are, it won't make those 10ish sources wrong either. Baseball talent is always objective. At this point, Jack and Tom get some leeway with their picks of Walker and Franklin. At least they aren't the sink-hole that the Basavi lead drafts were.

24. By: frontstreetfan on 06-11-2011 09:06:59
I'll start out with I'm not a Scout but a close baseball follower for a number of yrs. One certainty is none of these drafted players have ever played in the Majors and another rough fact is about 50% of the first rounders never amount to much for their major league team. Hultzen is being called the most polished pitcher coming available in this country in HS or College a consensu #3 starter? potentially or possibly a #2. His skillset compares higher than J. Moyer who in his prime was arguably a#2 why not give him that potential ranking? LH, best pitch a change. low mid 90's FB + offspeed? I'm not getting it? He's got better stuff than Vargas. Where would Vargas rank on the Yankees? 2-3?

25. By: rjfrik on 06-11-2011 14:32:33
Edman,

The next guy to take over a rotation spot is actually already on the team. David Pauley. He should be a starter and with his new found armslot over the summer, he has been killing it this year, lots o ground balls. But after him, the cupboard is pretty bare as far as immediate help.

I think Walker is 3 years away from helping and I actually think Paxton is closer. After a full year, this year, of pitching, I think the rust will finally be off and I would expect him to move up through the system fairly quickly next year and hopefully join us in the end or be a mainstay in 2013.

I think Bedard is the piece that goes away, but you might be right about Vargas as well. I think Vargas/Fister will be out not this year but maybe the year after. The good thing is Hultzen replaces Bedard, which makes him expendable and then Paxton replaces one of Vargas/Fister which makes one of them expendable in the next few years.

Both pitchers should bring back a great bat. We need to find a Matt Joyce type. All that cost was an Edwin Jackson and are pitchers are just as good if not better then Jackson.

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