| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 04-28-2011 |
Despite the solid stat line Wednesday in the 10-1 victory, Seattle Mariners left-hander Erik Bedard was nowhere near the pitcher the club thought they were trading for heading into the 2008 season.
I know, the seven innings of one-run ball on five hits without a walk is an attractive result, but Bedard got lucky. No, I'm not saying he pitched poorly and the results are a complete accident, but I am saying he's still far away from the frontline starter he was three years ago, and Wednesday was just the best showing of his second career as a risky, mid-rotation starter.
First off, he's a different pitcher, throwing far fewer fastballs and more changeups and cutters. This is because his average fastball is around 89-90 mph right now, down 2-3 mph from three seasons ago.
But he's getting significantly fewer swings and misses, the curveball is slower and with an earlier break that lacks some bite -- except for a handful on Wednesday.
In other words, Bedard's stuff is several grades off what it was in 2007 and early 2008, and his command is only marginally better.
With hitters making more contact against inferior pitches, we're not likely to see as many results like Wednesday's. Yes, it was an improved effort from Bedard, who simply threw more quality strikes, commanding his fastball better than in previous outings and getting a little help from a Detroit Tigers lineup that was extremely aggressive early in counts and seemed out in front on several offerings, which explains the 10 groundball outs the otherwise flyball-happy Bedard induced.
There are positives to take from Bedard's outing, however. One thing I noticed two starts ago was that Bedard's arm slot is slightly higher, and he was consistently finding that release point against Detroit. This helps him stay on top of his pitches and out of the upper quadrants of the strike zone.
Bedard did get an extra's day of rest this time through the rotation, so who knows whether or not that played a major role in his performance. But temper the enthusiasm, and ignore any analysis that suggests Bedard is back o his old self, or even remotely close to it. He simply is not, and the chance that he gets to that point is less than slim.
So it's probably best that fans aren't misled into believing that is the case or might soon be.
erik-bedard-is-not-back
Comments
The following 23 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: John_S on 04-28-2011 07:20:34 Do you think that the loss of 2-3 mph on his fb and a slower curveball is due to being sidelined for the past year and a half and he needs time to shake off the rust? |
| 2. By: MazamaWA on 04-28-2011 10:13:10 92 avg FB (Brooks) located & dropped a handful of wicked hammers last night. That was not the same pitcher we saw a week ago. CB still needs to be better earlier & for strikes but why not be encouraged? |
| 3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 04-28-2011 12:00:37 I know two scouts thatw ere at the game last night and had Bedard's fastball at 89-92, a couple 93s, so there's no way he averaged 92. So while he was better Wed. than before, point stands -- that is not the pitcher he was in 2007. |
| 4. By: ndcohn on 04-28-2011 12:28:46 I could have been looked at an unrepresentative sample, but the gun on TV was usually giving out 90-92. I remember more 93 than 89, and even one 94. Assuming the TV #'s were accurate, I thought that was meaningfully better than prior starts. |
| 5. By: amd25 on 04-28-2011 13:02:51 Sounds like Bedard needs some Dave Duncan action. Seriously though, if the curve is no longer a plus pitch should he try to become more of a ground ball guy and throw more 2-seamers and cutters? Seems that like that might be the direction he needs to head in. |
| 6. By: safecochatter on 04-28-2011 14:13:11 saw Bedard his last two starts in Peoria and knew he wasn't a tor anymore.if i was doing the rotation,i'd have him pitching in Safeco as often as possible and pray he stays healthy till July 31st. |
| 7. By: Edman on 04-28-2011 15:40:10 He's not the pitcher he use to be, so what? Being a major league pitcher is about being able to adjust. That's he's not at the form he had in 2007 isn't anything shocking, nor should it be a concern, at this point. Two months from now, is when I'll get concerned. That he's pitching at all, is progress. |
| 8. By: slamcactus on 04-28-2011 16:03:12 For once I find myself agreeing with Edman. Bedard ceerainly doesn't give us that "third ace" (for those fans who think Pineda already counts as no. 2), but does anyone really expect that out of him at this point? I can only speak for myself, but I certainly don't go into Bedard starts thinking "we've got this one in the bag." I pretty highly doubt I ever will this season. If he gets there that would be amazing, but if not he's a guy who's currently running a 4.52 xFIP (luck goes both ways, and he was getting crazy unlucky with his hr/fb rate) who we brought in on a non-guaranteed minor league deal. Anything we get from Bedard on this year's team is gravy. If he returns to dominance by June, that would be amazing, and we can trade him for something at the deadline. If not, he looks to be an adequate MLB starter right now with the possibility of improving as he gets more comfortable facing live batters, and he seems to have a kind of loyalty to this team that suggests he may continue to stick around at a below-market rate next year (he reportedly turned down more money to sign in 2010 and a guaranteed major league contract this offseason to re-up with the Ms). And like the previous poster, I didn't look at pitchfx for yesterdays start but the live gun had him hitting 92 with regularity and touching 94. His velocity has been down in some starts, but present in others. If nothing else, having a former great pitcher working his way back makes one out of evey 5 mariners games just that much more interesting. |
| 9. By: sexymarinersfan on 04-28-2011 16:33:51 I didn't recall the tv showing one fastball less than 92. Everything was 92 and 93, except for that one 94. Erik was at his at his best that he's been so far. Even Wedge and Leyland thought so. It's gonna take some time to shake off the rust no doubt about it. I think if he stays healthy we've got a crack at .500 ball this year! |
| 10. By: slamcactus on 04-28-2011 16:48:39 I'd put pretty much zero credence in the sound bytes from managers in post game press conferences. Their job during those things is pretty much limited to getting through it without involuntarily letting out any ethnic slurs and wrapping it up so that everyone can go home. Bedard was pitching to contact in a big park yesterday. Is velocity was nice to see, but as Jason noted, none of his pitches were exactly fooling Detroit's hitters, they just weren't. Cmpletely squaring them up. Th results were nice, but don't confuse what we saw yesterday with anything remotely resembling a dominant start. |
| 11. By: slamcactus on 04-28-2011 16:49:42 Sorry for poor punctuation. iPad's auto punctuation decisions continue to baffle me. |
| 12. By: pwhit44 on 04-29-2011 03:58:31 It's weird to me that we are making any judgment about Bedard at all. The dude has made five starts after making zero starts over a 20 month period. Seems to me none of us will know exactly what Bedard is going to be in his "second career" until we see another 10 or so starts. Good or bad, he's still getting his feet wet. Who the heck knows who he is or isn't? |
| 13. By: maqman on 04-29-2011 12:30:42 I'm with Edman as usual. He's not what he was when he was at his best and he won't be a TOR pitcher again but he has value. What remains to be seen is just how much value. I'd rather see him start a game than Vargas or Fister, but not as much as Cole. |
| 14. By: Bellacaramella on 04-29-2011 14:35:01 Jack Z. now knows how to use Google, so I presume he searched "torn labrum" and found this piece Will Carroll wrote for Salon: http://www.slate.com/id/2100895/ It's from 2004, and perhaps surgical and rehab techniques are better now. The stand-out graph: "Of the 36 major-league hurlers diagnosed with labrum tears in the last five years, only midlevel reliever Rocky Biddle has returned to his previous level. Think about that when your favorite pitcher comes down with labrum trouble: He has a 3 percent chance of becoming Rocky Biddle. More likely, he'll turn into Mike Harkey, Robert Person, or Jim Parque, pitchers who lost stamina and velocity—and a major-league career—when their labrums began to fray." You offer a great dose of perspective, Jason. But if the Mariners expected Erik Bedard to be his "old self," they would have picked up his $8 million option instead of offering a non-guaranteed contract. The positive I take from Bedard's outing in Detroit that that he didn't walk off the mound in the second inning holding his shoulder. Here's hoping the good outings continue, and that Bedard settles in and is the best fourth or fifth starter in the league. |
| 15. By: slamcactus on 04-29-2011 14:58:19 The data on the Will Carroll article is old enough to be relatively obsolete. Curt Schilling and Gil Meche both came back from labrum repair surgery growing just as hard as they did before. Jeff Francis's velocity was actually up last season from where it was pre labrum surgery. Shoulder injuries are scary - much scarier than elbow surgeries. But they're hardly the kiss of death they were once thought to be. |
| 16. By: ndcohn on 04-29-2011 16:28:22 Pitchfx says velocity was improved http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=126&position=P&pitch=FA |
| 17. By: krob4mvp on 04-29-2011 18:26:23 Jason, Off-topic in regards to Bedard. I have a question about Ichiro's stance. I have noticed he seems a bit more open and he is starting his hands higher. Hitters usually start their hands high in order to go high to low to level their swing and of course stay open to be able to get to inside fastballs quicker and open up their batters eye. My question is why would he do this? He seems to be even more defensive than ever before and it seems that he has no drive or power on any of his swings anymore. It is getting close to watching Michael Chang dropping a backhanded dropshot in tennis....lol! |
| 18. By: Talkbaseball on 04-29-2011 21:48:25 Church, whats the word on Cole. Terrible again tonight after being beat up by Stanford last week. Is the stuff still there? I don't see how Rendon makes it past Pitt with Cole's recent lack of success. |
| 19. By: dewey on 04-29-2011 22:18:09 If Jack new how to use Goggle the Lueke mistake of not knowing about his charges wouldnt have happened! |
| 20. By: dawgncarolina on 04-29-2011 22:37:09 Report I read was that Cole's stuff was as strong as ever today. |
| 21. By: slamcactus on 04-30-2011 14:07:16 If the stuff is as strong as ever I think that makes it more disconcerting that college bats are making hard contact against it, not less. Really hoping Pittsburgh is enamored with his stuff and leaves Rendon to us. |
| 22. By: rjfrik on 05-01-2011 13:39:52 Cole's stuff is fine. It's his location that he's battling with right now. He's leaving a lot of pitches up in the zone. When you leave pitches up in the zone you get hammered. He's just going through a ruff stretch with locating the ball. He will rebound and still is considered the best guy in the draft. If he slips to us, you should be grateful that he is available. |
| 23. By: Timberwolf on 05-01-2011 16:11:31 Cole knows how to use Google and after googling "Winter weather in Pittsburgh PA" he got depressed and had a couple of rough games. Strassburg had a couple of bad games near the end of his college career. Pitching in front of 100 professional scouts and thinking about the potential consequences has to be more intimidating than facing a second division major league lineup in front of 14000 fans on a Tuesday night The Pirates have the pressure decision, the Mariner move looks like a no brainer. I just can't believe that the Mariners would go for a high school player at #2 overall. It's not like there is a once in a decade guy like Harper out there. |
Haven't created a Prospect Insider account yet? Sign up!
|
|
 |
|
|
| Copyright 2010 Prospect Insider | Created by AQ Central Prospect Insider is optimized for Mozilla Firefox and Google Chrome |