Prospect Insider - Fantasy Impact

Fantasy Impact

By Jonathan Aicardi

By 12-15-2008

I know, the season is over. But if you're like me, it's never too soon to be rolling fantasy baseball around the old noggin. After all, the hot stove season is exciting in a lot of ways even the regular season isn't. Just days into the winter meetings, we've already seen some considerable movement as CC Sabathia inks a $161M mega-deal with the Yankees and K-Rod's signed a 3-year pact with the Mets.

As New York distracts itself with both signings, Washington is making a power play for the biggest free agent of all, Mark Teixeira. And while Kerry Wood is quietly headed to Cleveland, the Yankees very loudly discuss a very intricate and complicated three-way deal with the Dominican Republic and Dick Cheney that will somehow, somehow get Alex Rodriguez deported for three weeks in March in exchange for tax-free trade.

If that weren't enough, our own JJ Putz is headed out the door: to the Mets. There's a prime example of why the off-season matters to fantasy owners. Putz, recently the leagues best closer, is now a set-up man and Seattle, once a promising source of saves in the coming season, is left with a number of question marks to fill the void.

And the pool grows shallow.

It remains to be seen exactly how this entire off-season will play out. We can be fairly sure that wherever Teixeira plays, it won't be Washington. But after that, all bets are off. Even super-stud Jake Peavy was dangerously close to leaving the hurler-heaven of Petco to pitch in Wrigley, the veritable "Chutes and Ladders" of baseball.

It seems like everyone's headed somewhere. And with the changes come possible fortunes.

Or not.

Baseball is pretty simply a game of probabilities. Granted, they're really mind-boggling probabilities, but probabilities nonetheless. And just with any other kind, baseball probabilities are rewarded by opportunity.

Hanley Ramirez had the highest on-base percentage of any lead-off hitter in baseball. He led the majors in runs scored with 125. That's not a coincidence.

It should be pretty clear to people that players who are provided or provide themselves the most opportunity to produce numbers simply will. It didn't matter that Florida was a mediocre offense last season. If getting on base increases yours chances of scoring runs, you will. Ryan Howard hits for power in a lineup where the three hitters in front of him get on base ... a LOT. He led the league in RBI's. Simple stuff right?

This is how moving from one team to another will affect your player's chances to succeed and it's often by far more than the "change in park" or "change in league" factor (unless you're dealing with some major extremes, like Petco). A pitcher can usually see improvement going from the AL to the NL as about 8-10% of their batters faced suddenly become fellow pitchers. That doesn't, however, apply to relievers.

A handful of impact fantasy starters have already switched teams. So why not begin with our very own?

Seattle predictably traded away fan-favorite J.J. Putz, one of the few valuable chips available for the rebuilding franchise. Putz struggled all season long with health but still managed to produce solid numbers, particularly down the stretch with 4 wins, 8 saves and 27 K’s in 21.1 IP over the season’s final two months.

But that won’t really matter, because as part of his change in uniforms is a change in roles, the transaction coming just hours after the Mets’ announcement of signing fellow stud-closer Francisco Rodriguez. Putz will now set-up for the young fire-baller and while they’re sure to put Mets fans at ease for the time being, that means one less solid closer for fantasy owners.

Last season might have felt more like Heathcliff Slocumb than the Putz we’re used to, but he’s healthy now and seemed primed for a big year while flanking a much stronger rotation.

The question now is who will man the gavel in his place? Mark Lowe seems like the obvious choice with a full off-season of health on his plate. He still has two plus pitches with his mid-90’s fastball and hard slider and simply needs to retain his former command to play up. He goes after hitters and can miss a ton of bats. Sounds like a closer to me.

The less obvious choice, but perhaps a more suitable one at the moment, is 2008 1st-rounder Josh Fields, still sporting high-90’s fastballs and a hammer curve. Whatever disaster that has transpired thus far between he and the organization can be completely erased if he were to step in and take over this spring. It’s true he’s just out of college, but he has extensive closer experience and is still older than most draft picks. With time at spring training and that kind of repertoire, it’s not a far-fetched idea. Either way, the leverage has shifted to his party as Zduriencik will probably feel more inclined to shell out the extra $500,000 with Putz out of the picture and no one else really all that into it.

Then, of course, there’s Brandon Morrow, whose exciting 3-pitch power combo opened eyes during his time as closer last season. Jack has been reluctant to include “Morrow” and “closer” in the same statement this winter, but you can never really tell what an organization is thinking. Besides, with Batista and Washburn still on the roster – and no one biting – they’ll probably have to make room somewhere.

The other early candidates include Aaron Heilman, acquired in the deal from the Mets. He’s pretty miffed about being a reliever and isn’t afraid to tell people about it. But perhaps being a closer would change his mind. There’s something eerie about the power of the 9th inning, which has been well documented. He has the stuff, the experience and certainly the confidence. You just wonder if he has enough interest to sneak himself into the ring.

Shawn Kelley looks like a regular at the doorstep of the majors, but his profile doesn't really scream "end game" stuff.

Another option is simply acquiring a closer. But have you priced those lately?

Whoever presents themselves, it won't be for a while and you can probably expect a closer-by-committee situation early on as every candidate above comes with significant questions. Should Fields sign soon and be invited to spring training, he's probably the leading man and if not by April, maybe by mid-season.

But that's a stretch.

In the meantime, Putz will hand the ball to closer K-Rod. My advice here? Link the two. If you happen to draft Rodriguez (which would ideally be around the 4th round), having Putz around with a late selection means you won't have to worry if K-Rod goes down or becomes ineffective or decides that designing baseball nicknames is a more profitable career. Unlike most teams, the Mets will have a clear 1-2 heirarchy and that makes Putz valuable, even beyond the 11.0 K/9 and sub-2.50 ERA he has to offer.

The change in leagues won't do much for either player. They won't face pitchers and matchups at the plate will likely be designed around them, rather than at random. The change in stadiums similarly won't have much of an effect and though Rodriguez played for a pretty good team during his record-breaking season, the Mets are beginning to round out pretty nicely.

Not much else will change from a fantasy perspective in this trade, despite the number of players involved. Mike Carp figures to be a solid regular in time but will likely require a year or two to reach that level in the bigs. Gutierrez is and will continue to be the type of player more valuable to the real club than to yours. The same can be said for Valbuena, at least as long as his speed continues to be lost in translation on the bases.

Joe Smith may have figured into Cleveland's plans at closer, but that job now belongs to Wood, who passed his physical over the weekend.

But other big moves are in the works and there are others still to assess. We'll revisit the concept every other week and see how they play out during the season as we attempt to find more and more ways to predict fantasy success. As for next week, we'll take a look at statistical tendencies from the 2008 season, looking for the young stars prepared to leap into the limelight.

fantasy-impact

Comments
The following 4 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: EscapetheCape on 12-15-2008 15:19:44
Hey Jonathan,

I'm in a 16-team keeper league and have Putz as one of my 10 keepers, which sucks, because now he's not that kind of player for me.

I was offered Brian Roberts and George Sherrill for Putz and Tulowitzki.

My current 2B is Jose Lopez and Putz was my closer. But I'm not sure if Sherrill is keeper worthy, though Putz isn't now, either.

Advice?

2. By: dchurch85 on 12-15-2008 18:18:56
I feel Tulo is better than Roberts will be. Putz should still be valuable as well. If K Rod gets hurt, he will get his chances. He will also get his chances on days K Rod can't pitch. I still think the 2 of them is more valuable than Roberts Sherrill.

3. By: FatBat on 12-16-2008 11:24:30
I'm not high on Sherrill as a closer...but he will get his 30 saves as Putz won't. If your in a head to head league then I would make that trade in a second. Roberts last year Hit .290 100 runs 40 stolen bases and something like 51 doubles. He's a super star. and Sherrill will get you a few saves a week as putz may get you a save every once and awhile. But if your just in a points league then maybe Putz might have that value over a hole season. Tulo is going to be a great player so if you have like a 5 yr. league then by the end Tulo will maybe, be the better player, I'm still betting that Roberts again will be the top 20 fantasy players he was last year. And Tulo maybe top 40.

4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-18-2008 22:15:01
I would advise against it, because Sherrill is likely to get traded before July 31 to a team that needs lefty setup help.

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