| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 01-19-2010 |
With word swirling that the Seattle Mariners and King Felix Hernandez have agreed to terms, as first reported by ESPN's Keith Law, lets push past the terms of the deal -- which I have been told could be four years guaranteed with more than one vesting option year, possible one mutual option year after vesting option, or a five-year guarantee with similar options, plus incentives that would bring the total value of the contract well over $100 million -- and talk about what this means for the Hometown Nine.
Edit: Most reports out now are saying it's a five-year deal worth just south of $78 million guaranteed. Francisco Blavia is reporting there is no option for a sixth year, vesting, mutual or otherwise, so it'd be difficult to imagine the incentives pushing it very far over $100 million, if it gets that far.
First of all, it means for the first time since Ken Griffey, Jr. signed an extension, the M's have kept a budding star in their organization beyond his six years of club control. Alex Rodriguez didn't get that far, and several others -- Adam Jones, for instance -- were never given the chance.
Second, if the contract does reach the $100 million mark, it's obviously the first in club history. It would also be the first five-year contract given to a pitcher by the Mariners.
It also means that at least 20 percent of the games played by the organization throughout the length of the deal, your home team will likely have the pitching advantage. Hernandez will be 24, is coming off a CY Young caliber season, and the only thing that can stop is himself, which appears less likely every year we see him pitch.
His maturation has been significant since 2005, and a lot of that credit should go to Felix himself, not just the pitching coaches that have worked with him.
It's the perfect time for the Mariners to delve into this kind of commitment, since Jack Zduriencik has proven he knows what he is doing and the club is skyrocketing to the top of the division while getting younger, more athletic, versatile, while keeping it's financial flexibility from year to year.
While Ichiro's making $17 million per season, I have always argued he's not the kind of player you build a team around. I still believe that and always will. But Felix is the kind of pitcher around which you build your rotation.
Whether this impacts the potential to eventually keep Cliff Lee beyond 2010 is unknown, but it certainly doesn't hurt their chances. The money given to Hernandez in now way affects what's available for Zduriencik to offer Lee. Having said that, I think there is very little chance Lee stay in Seattle, and I all but guarantee he doesn't sign an extension prior to free agency.
[I actually have a feeling Lee ends up signing with the Texas Rangers next winter, but we'll talk about that when the time comes.]
Hernandez's contract in no way affects the team's ability to go out and get better in other areas right now, either, especially considering the cost certainty that comes with a multi-year deal for players in the middle of arbitration.
So in the end, it may help Seattle, as they budget their money, extend the payroll over the next couple of years, due to marketing confidence and early-winter season ticket sales.
While many of us saw this deal coming -- I never thought Felix was going to end up being traded and told many of you that via comments, emails, etc. -- but it's nice to get it done and move on to bettering the 25-man roster.
I had a dream back in June, 2004, the night after seeing Felix fan 11 in seven 3-hit frames in the Cal League -- I believe it was against High Desert, too -- that Hernandez struck out Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez to clinch the American League Championship.
Now, for that dream to come to fruition, we don't have to hope it happens in the next two years ... it'd just be sweeter if it did.
felix,-m\'s-ace
Comments
The following 32 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: CrustyJuggler on 01-19-2010 01:29:36 Hell-'effing-yeah! |
| 2. By: bumkus on 01-19-2010 01:31:16 Let the rejoicing begin! |
| 3. By: yohnhimself on 01-19-2010 01:35:31 This is really exciting. I know that a 6 year deal entails some risk but if there is any pitcher worth risking it on it is Felix due to the combination of his age, clean injury history, competitiveness, etc. I'd be fine with the 4 year deal but I want Felix on this team forever so the extra two years would just make me feel better on a personal level; either way I'm ecstatic right now. I'm surprised that if indeed it is a 6 year deal that they'd be able to keep it at less than $100 million guaranteed. Granted I know nothing of how these contracts are usually structured but I figured a deal of that length would come in north of that mark. |
| 4. By: ARock on 01-19-2010 01:44:24 Thats a great deal. |
| 5. By: pwhit44 on 01-19-2010 01:51:09 I literally don't care how risky a long-term deal with Felix is. With another pitcher, I would care. But if this means I don't have to worry about losing him for X period of time, the longer that period of time, the better. |
| 6. By: 200tang on 01-19-2010 02:02:51 An incentive deal is awesome. Long term pitching contracts are risky regardless of who you're talking about so having a higher salary ceiling through incentives than a 100% guaranteed deal with a lower salary base is a win for both sides, in my opinion. |
| 7. By: pwhit44 on 01-19-2010 02:31:55 "So in the end, it may help Seattle, as they budget their money, extend the payroll over the next couple of years..." This is one of the best parts (a distant second) of this extension. I've felt for a while that the M's have been a little hamstrung buy not knowing what number Felix would come in at this season. Knowing that number now will allow them to proceed with the rest of the offseason. I'm guessing the 2010 number could be less than what he may have gotten in arbitration. So maybe there is another one or two million to play with now... ?? |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-19-2010 03:15:36 Certainly possible, pwhitt, but even if it's not, the certainty is a safety valve the club could not operate under until now, especially since there's always the chance you don't come to an agreement and the case makes it to arbitration, which presents a much higher risk for the team. |
| 9. By: Faceplant on 01-19-2010 03:55:57 At least we know the deal is going to be announced tomorrow. Seriously, this age of twitter is driving me nuts. I'd rather not know about the deal until just before it's announced, rather then have to know about it for days before we hear anything official. |
| 10. By: Faceplant on 01-19-2010 03:58:41 By the way, where have you been Jason? Don't you realize that your entire life is supposed to revolve around us? |
| 11. By: safecochatter on 01-19-2010 09:46:11 two different reporters are saying 5/78 on felix. heyman and a Venezuelan reporter Francisco Blavia. but i bet there's a 6th year option. |
| 12. By: maqman on 01-19-2010 12:06:35 For the Z-Crew the difficult is made to seem easy and the impossible is harder but doable. Welcome to Mariner Nation! Now we need to ink Z & Co. to a longterm deal before somebody tries to poach them off us. |
| 13. By: pwhit44 on 01-19-2010 12:32:59 The first guy to be poached will Tony Blengino. |
| 14. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-19-2010 13:01:37 Talk about overrated. |
| 15. By: pwhit44 on 01-19-2010 13:09:34 Keep in mind, I have no idea what I'm talking about. |
| 16. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-19-2010 13:16:53 Ha... sure ya do. But Blengino's role is so overblown. |
| 17. By: Edman on 01-19-2010 13:19:55 I'm confused. When did anyone place a big red "S" on Blengino's superhero costume? Why do you think he'll be poached (and do you mean fired?). Seems to me, Jack has been using a lot of different approaches to player evaluation. I see it all as valuable. I guess I'm just lost by what it is that you mean. |
| 18. By: slamcactus on 01-19-2010 13:45:40 Blengino gets a lot of press because he's so open about the kinds of things he's listening to on the stats end of things. Every good organization that uses statistical analysis has a guy who knows about wOBA, WAR, UZR, etc. Most of them don't do weekly interviews that explain these stats to the general public. I think Blengino's a cool guy to have around, and it seems like he knows how to listen to smart people. That's a refreshing quality in a FO guy. |
| 19. By: JonathanAicardi on 01-19-2010 14:04:48 This news calls for a goofy white-guy dance. Who's with me? Anyone for "the sprinkler?" |
| 20. By: JohnMcD on 01-19-2010 14:15:20 JAC, I love the signing, but I had a question about another signing the M's just made. How does the 16 year old from El Salvador look? Is he a starter or a reliever? The only article I saw on him was in spanish. |
| 21. By: JohnMcD on 01-19-2010 16:18:04 Did anyone hear how Ben Sheets looked today? Supposedly his curveball looked nice? |
| 22. By: DRWheelock on 01-19-2010 17:41:33 Jason - On the topic arbitration we have 2 more left Kotchman & League. I just found their player/teams asking/offered figures. What are your thoughts on the final 2 players? http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/19/players-teams-swap-arbitration-figures/ Casey Kotchman (Mariners) Requesting $3,900,000 and Ms offered $3,135,000 Brandon League (Mariners) Requesting $1,325,000 and Ms offered $900,000 I was estimating Kotchman probably getting $3.2M in arb, but $3.9M is rediculous in my mind. That's almost asking for Adrian Gonzalez money albeit Gonz at $4.75M is a steal....but still. Even though I really like League, I figured since he was league minimum last year that he would go for less than $800k. It's probably why these 2 are still not yet signed. I was actually shocked to see Ms offer $900k to League, so the League/Ms offer isn't too far off ($425k). But this Kotchman thing is rediculous I think. He's never been a fulltime 1B player, only a bench player, so Kotchman's asking price puzzles me. |
| 23. By: Slack on 01-19-2010 17:49:43 This is awesome! All hail King Felix!!! |
| 24. By: Edman on 01-19-2010 18:08:32 Wheelock, comparing Kotchman's contract to an extremely underpaid player like Gonzales is hardly fair. Do you think an arbitration judge is going to side with any team that uses his contract as an example? It's not about what Gonzales makes. It's about what other similar players make. Nick Johnson is a similar player, and he got $5.5 Million. That is what what an arby judge is going to consider. That being said, I imagine that Kotchman and League will settle somewhere in the middle. That's pretty typical. |
| 25. By: Edman on 01-19-2010 18:18:29 Sorry for the second post, but Kotchman a bench player? Where did that comment come from? He's had 443, 373, 525 and 385 AB the last four years. And, his earlier years, he was a young player breaking in, so it's logical he's not gonna get 600 ABs. While he hasn't logged in 150 games a year, I don't think it's fair to call him a bench player, either. |
| 26. By: mykillmagnum on 01-19-2010 18:33:48 Awesome news today... jason or chris, little off topic but will this affect us signing any other players for this year? Also, ben sheets threw today, do you guys know how he looked and if the ms are actually going to be a serious player into signing him? |
| 27. By: DRWheelock on 01-19-2010 18:47:14 Felix's Contract Breakdown was just tweeted by Heyman: king felix breakdown: $3.5M signing bonus, $6.5M in '10, $10M in '11, $18.5. in '12, $19.5M in '13, $20M in '14 Looks like we have a little more money available than most thought we were gonna have to dish to Felix this year in arb alone. |
| 28. By: ARock on 01-19-2010 18:50:29 We probably pay Felix's signing bonus this year however, so really we are paying $10M right now, which was expected. How does Aardsma's contract compare to what Jason expected in the salary spreadsheet? |
| 29. By: DRWheelock on 01-19-2010 18:54:27 I have been hearing many expect $12M for Felix But Aarsdma did get an extra million or so more than I expected...and Kotchman is asking for more than I thought he'd get. So it's probably right on target with expectations now that I this about it. |
| 30. By: Chris Crawford on 01-19-2010 20:02:15 Sweet sassy molassy. This is not directed at Edman as you 1. apologized for it and 2. dont ever do it. But enough with the posting 3 things at once that are 5 paragraphs long! The questions will be answered when they are gotten to. You are ruining my happy day :) Kidding, but never the less...less is more. |
| 31. By: dewey on 01-19-2010 22:05:56 Belangio is a joke he is taken care of by the stats nerds ,Felix was here in the minors when he was a CPA so quit blowing the stats guy he had nothing to do with Felix and Jack was a scout for 30 years he hasnt changed quit beliving the Ron Meyer bullshit! Players and scouts develop orgs not computers... believe that! |
| 32. By: Uncle Al on 01-20-2010 01:17:13 DRWheelock If those contract figures are correct, Hernandez and his agent really helped out the M's this year and next year. It freed up another 3.3M this year as well as next year and spread it out over 2012 through 2014. Kotchman and League shouldn't cost anymore than $4.5M between them and that is my estimate for this year. The total budget for 2010 now has $92.6M committed and $95.7M is committed for 2012 and doesn't include the $4.5M option for Lopez or an amount for resigning Lee. It's still going to be tight in 2012 but one big question mark went away and really helped them. Now it will be easier to make a decision on a #3 SP and whether another player in LF will be a big RH or LH bat. What they do with these two additions will tell you a lot about what they might due in future years. If you take a good look at what they have now on the ML roster, what will be available over the next 3 years from the minors, and what might show some value in time, Zduriencik and his people have already set things up to be successful for a long time. Bavasi didn't do shit in 5 years and Zduriencik has things all straightened out in 14 months. Unbelievable. |
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