| By Adam H. Wong |  | By 10-26-2011 |
Winning a championship will do something to this city. Something that is currently hard to imagine. We will see every seat at Safeco Field occupied rather than a sea of vacancy. When conversing about the Seattle Mariners, we will see smiles rather than frowns. We will be able to stay "I knew them when..." When Jose Vidro was our full-time DH, when Chone Figgins wasted years of our payroll, when we got to see The Kid and The Big Unit at the Kingdome -- when they won their first World Series. Winning sets expectations.Things would be interesting for Felix Hernandez coming into 2011. After his Cy Young season, expectations were high. We have to go back more than a decade to get a pitcher who consecutively won the award. Pedro Martinez was 27 in 1999, and when he won the award again in 2000, he put up equally impressive numbers. Hernandez, 25, was dominant during his own award-winning campaign.
At first glance, it may seem like Hernandez's 2011 was less than stellar relative to his 2010. Some fans and media wondered if there was anything wrong with him, as if he wasn’t really good. Deeper examination shows otherwise.
The first thing that comes to mind when thinking about Hernandez is dominance -- his ability to completely fool hitters, his ability to throw nasty sinkers, big benders and high heat. Watching Hernandez this year, he looked dominant. He may not be in Cy Young talks this fall, but he was just as effective deceiving hitters this season as he was last. The right-hander put up a K/9 of 8.36 in 249 2/3 innings in 2010. It's difficult to compare K/9 relative to the rest of the league that year because Hernandez threw 12 innings more than the next innings leader, CC Sabathia, and 25 1/3 innings more than the next, where we start to see a grouping of pitchers with a relatively similar amounts of innings pitched -- Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Cliff Lee.
The point to make here, however, is that the Venezuelan put up a K/9 of 8.55 this year. Don't be fooled: he threw 16 innings less than last year and started one less game, but the similarity is a great thing. He is still striking out batters. He only struck out 10 fewer batters this year compared to last. Any hesitance or reservations as to Hernandez's nasty factor can be laid to rest.
On top of that, his 3.14 xFIP during 2010 is nearly identical to the 3.15 xFIP he posted this year. His BABIP rose this year from .263 to .307, so that could explain the jump in simple ERA. The consistency in xFIP is encouraging, but I'm most encouraged by his pitch selection throughout the 2011 season.
Fangraphs reports that he threw 53.6 percent fastballs in 2011, down 7.1 percent from 2010. The disparity is made up in the amount of changeups he threw this year. To cross-check the pitch quantification, I visited Texas Leaguers and their numbers are similar. Throwing around 21.5 percent changeups, it's up 6.2 percent from the 15.3 percent he threw last year, and up 7.9 percent from 2009. There are two pitches a major league pitcher can't live without: the first-pitch strike and the changeup. Hernandez is throwing his hard change -- most often clocked in the 87-91 mph range -- more and that's a good thing. He's learning not to live and die by the sinking fastball, and even though it may be his best pitch, developing a plus-plus changeup might make things entirely unfair.
Martinez also dominated batters with a changeup, putting up unbelievable numbers during his Cy Young years --1997, 1999 and 2000. He may have won in 1998, too, if it weren't for a ridiculous year by Roger Clemens. That is a span of four straight Cy Young caliber seasons for Pedro. That's Randy Johnson-esque. That's Maddux-like.
Hernandez is still young at 25-years-old and under contract through 2014 when he'll be just 28 and could be coming into his prime. It's no secret that he has elite-caliber stuff, and as he continues to develop his pitches, one can only imagine how good he could get in the future.
Even better, his walk rate this year is exactly the same as a year ago, sitting at 7.0 percent. With 70 bases on balls in 2010 and 67 2011, Hernandez still has solid control. He still has great presence and poise on the mound, which is exactly what we expect out of an ace. One of the things we can take away from this season is the impact his presence had in the clubhouse. When Michael Pineda had a bad outing, he was there. When the entire team had a bad outing, he would always want the ball. Conversely, when Mike Carp hit that home run into the Hit it Here Cafe, the big 25-year-old Cy Young Award winner was there. When Luis Rodriguez hit the walk-off home run against the New York Yankees, the Seattle superstar was there.
Statistically, Hernandez had a superb year. He had a Felix year. A typical Felix year is all we can ask of him, and he delivered. More than that, he brought a presence to the stadium -- a mantra, an excitement. The King's Court was where any Seattle Mariners fan wanted to be during one of the King's starts. It provided an atmosphere, not only to support Hernandez and his presence on the mound, but it brought something else to the team.
To each of the players, to the entire clubhouse, the birth of the "O-li-vo!" chant was something special, and Miguel Olivo himself was caught off guard by the inception of the chant. Olivo said that he had never experienced anything like that, and that he hit that home run because he didn't want to let the fans down.
As the ace of the staff, Hernandez avoids all of that. He hates to let the fans down. He hates to lose. He is not happy with a .500 winning percentage. He was jacked when he picked up win No. 13 last year. He didn't get to experience that this year. He has celebrated an above .500 team record only twice in the seven years he's been with the M's. What a drag. What a bummer for a guy who seemingly puts everything he has into every start he gets. I've never seen Hernandez mope around the mound, however. I've never seen Hernandez drag his feet. We've seen him get angry and disappointed at himself, but not at his teammates, not at the scoreboard.
We've been spoiled because the birthright of the King belongs to the city. Seattle is all Hernandez has ever known, and Seattle was there when he made his debut at the tender age of 19. When we think back on his 2011 season, we should think that it was a "Felix" year. Of course he would pitch this well again. He's the ace, he's the stopper. His win-loss record may not be alluring, but we learned from 2010 that it doesn't have to be. Hernandez is the club's No. 1 starter, and it doesn't look like that is going to change anytime soon.
Oh yeah, and Martinez was a year older than Hernandez when he won his first Cy Young.
Adam H. Wong can be reached via email at wong@prospectinsider.com, and you can follow him on Twitter here.
felix-hernandez:-a-2011-retrospective
Comments
The following 7 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-27-2011 14:37:07 I'm glad I wasn't the only one getting tired of the "what is wrong with Felix?" B.S. this season. The answer is, nothing at all. |
| 2. By: Edman on 10-27-2011 18:19:20 I never thought there was anything wrong with Felix, other than his continued lack of run support by the offense. Much of what happened to him this year was a matter of the lack of luck. |
| 3. By: shortstop9 on 10-27-2011 21:18:25 If possible and you could get one of these packages for Felix would you trade him? And what do you think is the best package? Bos- Lowrie,L.Anderson,S.Pimental,J.Reddick Tor- T.Snider, D.Cooper, T.D'Arnaud, B.Cecil NYY- J.Montero, D.Betances,E.Nunez, B.Gardner Tex- E.Beltre, C.Lewis,D.Murphy ,J.Profar Cin- Alonzo, R.Hanigan,A.Chapman,C.Valaika |
| 4. By: aerichner on 10-28-2011 01:18:04 @3, nope not for any of those packages. Only way is if Felix is on the last year of his deal and has stated publicly that he wont sign with the M's. |
| 5. By: valencia on 10-28-2011 09:55:21 The Boston and Toronto packages are too weak. The Cincinnati and Texas packages look interesting but not enough to bite. I do NYY's though just because of Gardner. Gardner/Montero would replace Felix's production and save us $20 million. Thankfully Cashman loves Gardner too much and we love Felix too much so that'll never happen. |
| 6. By: Edman on 10-28-2011 11:31:37 A agree, thankfully none of those scenarios will happen. |
| 7. By: Rudolf on 10-28-2011 14:04:51 Agree w/ #5. There is a ton of risk in each package. We would need proven stars or top drawer minor league talent in return. CIN- Bruce, Mesoraco, Hamilton, Wood Tex- Profar, Perez, Kinsler NYY- Montero, Banuelos, Gardner, Nova TOR- D'Arnaud, Gose, Drabek, McGuire, Snider BOS would have a hard time getting in the discussion unless they wanted to move current stars like Pedroia, Youk, Ells Remember what Baltimore got for Bedard? That was Bedard. We're talking about a younger, better, more proven, healthier pitcher with a better attitude and more years on his contract. If we should ever trade the man, it would need to fetch the greatest haul ever. |
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