Prospect Insider - Fielder field cut in half

Fielder field cut in half

By Jason A. Churchill

By 12-31-2011

The Prince Fielder sweepstakes may drag on for another few weeks, but there are signs of movement. Are the M's still in it? Who's the most aggressive club?

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Comments
The following 37 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: MarinersArmy on 12-31-2011 22:34:13
I hate to say it but I truly believe Prince will not be coming here, too many factors against us.

On that note, what are the options? Not much left out there in the free agency world.

Trade? Bye-bye to one of our pitching prospects or Pineda?

If Detroit is playing for now, maybe Pineda for Jacob Turner (who DET announced they're willing to deal) and a hitter? Boesh?

If they don't shore this offense up this off-season, I can't see me paying for the product they put out there (like in 2011).

Still... Go M's and Happy New Year!

2. By: Gibbo on 12-31-2011 23:16:16
If we have to go the trade route then our options may be less with a lot of teams having already got the SP'ing they need.

3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-31-2011 23:32:11
Detroit did NOT announce they are willing to deal Jacob Turner, first of all. Second, the M's are still on track. Nobody smart believes the mess Jack took over pre-2009 could be turned into a contender in three years, without spending hundreds of millions on free agents.

4. By: shemberry on 01-01-2012 00:18:39
I am not advocating a trade of Pineda, however if Jack made him available teams would be lining up no matter what moves they have already made. Pineda is a cheap, high upside, under control pitcher who has proven that he can get outs at the major league level.

5. By: Adam B. on 01-01-2012 02:48:38
So what do the M's do if they miss out on Fielder? Sign Kuroda/Jackson and deal Pineda? Sign a stop-gap like Carlos Pena? Both? Clearly the M's aren't playing for 2012 at this point, what sets them up best for '13 and '14?

6. By: short on 01-01-2012 04:29:14
I feel pretty strongly that the M's should offer eight years to Fielder. He'll only be 35 in his last season in that case, and there's a good likelihood he'll be worth the money even then, given inflation. If he's paid $22 million, and wins cost $7 then he'd only need to add 3 WAR. And if he doesn't, then consider the cash over his value to be tacked on to the first few years and it still looks ok.

7. By: Edman on 01-01-2012 05:46:39
*sigh*.....more WAR talk. When you start equating it to dollars, there's something wrong, IMO. Value comes with putting butts in the seats and selling merchandise. I'm sure Fielder could do that. But, it has little to do with his WAR value, and a lot to do with his status compared to other major league baseball players.

That said, I think some are over-estimating Pineda's value. Had he finished the season the way he started it, then yes, there would be a lot of teams lining up for his services. Certainly a lot of teams would be interested, but I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't offer a great deal to obtain him. I know many here in Seattle are excited about his prospects. I'm one of them. But, teams are going to use his second half to try to drive down his value. That's just how negotiations work.

8. By: masonb on 01-01-2012 15:33:24
http://eye-on-baseball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22297882/34115059

Just saw this on CBS. I don't know how credible the source is, but it looks like Iwakuma might be coming to the fold. Depending on the price, that's a nice pickup for the back of the rotation.

9. By: shemberry on 01-01-2012 15:59:41
Edman,

I am sure teams would TRY to drive down the price to acquire Pineda, but with the Latos deal and the Gio deal they would have no luck. I just don't agree with you that his second half would have that much impact for other clubs. It is normal for a rookie to hit a wall as they get deep in the season. As I said before, his potential, salary and years of control would make him a very hot commodity.

10. By: Slack on 01-01-2012 16:44:42
I'm not worried if the M's don't sign Fielder.
If they don't, there is still a lot that could go right. What if Carp is the real deal and Smoak is healthy? Add in a full season from Ackley and better years from Ichiro and Gutierrez. Thats a lot to count on but it could happen and if it does, the M's will have a much better offense.

11. By: ripperlv on 01-01-2012 18:06:09
So the M's are hanging on Fielder. I have to wonder if Boras is playing the M's like he played Teixeira with the Angels?

I don't get the feeling the M's are shopping Pineda, but that could easily change if Fielder doesn't sign. I still like Brett Lawrie in a Pineda deal. I think if JZ trades Pineda, he can take his time and build the market. We'll see.

12. By: FelixElRey on 01-01-2012 21:51:39
If the Cubs deal Garza, doesn't that send a clear message of rebuilding to Prince? A 7-8 year deal obviously allows time for a rebuild to occur, but what big free agent wants to join a team that's clearly giving up for the first couples years of your contract?

13. By: Edman on 01-01-2012 22:35:16
After some thought, I think the helps Seattle. It means that Boras isn't receiving the offers that he expected. So, right now he's playing Russian Roulette to see which team gives in first. He's hoping that one team believes there are actually bullets in the gun. And apparently, it's not working.

Seattle doesn't get Fielder, I won't be too upset. I would really like him in Seattle. And, I have no problem with him getting $25 million a season to do it. The fact that Boras is trying to sell him as a better investment than Pujols is really a joke. A massive report to sell your client? Smells of desperation to me. So far, nobody's falling for the hype.

Personally, if Fielder doesn't want to play in Seattle, then I don't want him here. It can't be a good situation in the long-haul.

14. By: greentunic on 01-01-2012 22:56:57
Mr. Churchill,

Do you believe the Mariners would get more value from Pineda now or halfway through 2012 (assuming he plays as you expect him to)?

Basically, should the M's wait if they get offers?

15. By: baseballman on 01-01-2012 23:24:51
Edman, how is Fielder not a better investment than Pujols?

He's not worth the contract Pujols, but neither is Pujols, that contract is absolutely insane. But Fielder is the better bet to be a more useful player at the end of his contract (however long it may be) than Pujols, imo.

16. By: Edman on 01-02-2012 01:51:06
It's simple, baseballman.

First, Albert is a much better fielder. He provided defensive value that Fielder can't. In a pinch, he could play some third or even the outfield under dire circumstances.

Second, Albert is a better hitter overall, than Prince. They're both valuable.

Certainly, if someone ends up signing Prince for a seven year or less contract, then the investment issue changes. As of right now, based on what Albert can bring to the table as an overall package, exceeds Prince's value. But Prince is not as good an investment as Albert, if you gave him an equivalent contract.

17. By: jgstecker on 01-02-2012 10:19:47
Actually, I'm still pretty optimistic about Fielder coming to Seattle.

When you look at the list of potential suitors ranked above Seattle in the handicapping for the race, none of them are in a position to outspend Seattle. There's been too much rumbling this offseason about the M's bumping payroll For me to think they'll be scared away by these other clubs' top offers.

I think there's a very good chance Seattle is the high bidder here. And money always wins out.

18. By: rotoenquire on 01-02-2012 13:05:15
Pineda's value would be best served to let him stay in our rotation. The reason people got so much for players like Latos and Gio. Is because they have a longer track record. Pineda tho having one darn good year is just that one year. Give him a couple like that showing improvement and his value sould and should be more than that of Latos and Gio.. Right now you would not get anywhere near the package the Padres and A's got..

19. By: Dregur on 01-02-2012 16:39:08
@18

It's not just about past performances with Pineda, it's where his ceiling could be in a year or two. Imagine you're a GM and you just saw an unpolished rookie put up the numbers that Pineda did in his early 20's. I would believe any GM worth his salt would be salivating over something like that.

It's mostly about potential with Pineda.

20. By: rotoenquire on 01-02-2012 20:29:43
@19 Granted... But your not going to trade 3 top potential guys for 1 top potential guy. You trade 3 potential guys for 1 established guy.

21. By: sexymarinersfan on 01-02-2012 21:24:12
Looks like the Nats are the front runners for Fielder with Seattle dropping out as I'm hearing this from an MLB official rumor. Hope it's not true.

22. By: xarmyguy78 on 01-02-2012 22:41:36
I sure wish this guy would hurry up and sign somewhere, anywhere just so we can quit with all the speculation. Of course I hope it's here in Seattle

23. By: Edman on 01-02-2012 23:57:35
Nobody but Fielder and Boras know what Fielder is up to. They're all journalists with nothing substantial to talk about. So, until someone comes up with a rumor with any real teeth, it's just more rehashing the same old crap.

Seattle isn't in any greater or worse position to sign Fielder.

If you wish to believe everything you read on MLB Rumors, then you're going to be an awfully frustratated person.

24. By: davidyfsu on 01-03-2012 10:27:12
Hi Jason, maybe it's already been mentioned by other PI members, but any chance the M's have a chance acquiring Prado and/or Jair Jurrjens from ATL? Jurrjens just had his best big league season and Prado has been a very consistent hitter past several years, not to mention he plays multiple position. Prado can be a solution for the M's at 3B until that prospect... Martinez is ready for the bigs.

25. By: FelixElRey on 01-03-2012 17:34:34
I realize the M's have talked about adding a veteran SP from day 1 of the offseason, but do you think this allows JZ to be open to dealing Pineda?

Do you guys think dealing Pineda would be an alternative to signing Fielder, or would JZ be more motivated to move Pineda for a couple major leaguers to further improve the roster after signing Fielder? Obviously it would depend on who we got in return, but I doubt dealing Pineda would emit feelings of win-now mentality (at least on the surface) and thus improve our chances of getting Fielder if done before he makes a decision.

26. By: Archer on 01-04-2012 00:31:03
I subscribed to the forever subscription tonight but none of the "contact" links seem to work and there doesn't seem to be an email address listed anywhere so I can't email my username.

Any help would be appreciated,

Thanks

27. By: Gibbo on 01-04-2012 02:18:54
I just tried using the STD contact link at the top of the page and that worked, perhaps try that.

28. By: maqman on 01-04-2012 13:46:46
Who needs Fielder? Hamilton is a free agent after next season and Votto the season after that. Now they are multi-tool targets with more real value than Pricy Princey.

29. By: johnfree on 01-04-2012 14:07:47
maqman,
That's a great idea. Lets sign a 32 year old injury prone outfielder or a 1B 2 years from now for the same money as Prince because they play defense.

30. By: StandinPat on 01-04-2012 14:09:38
Not to mention neither player is guaranteed to become a FA

31. By: Edman on 01-04-2012 14:10:27
Exactly, Pat. I was just going to say the same thing.

32. By: valencia on 01-04-2012 16:26:20
@28

We have only Felix locked up after 2014. We could literally afford Fielder, Hamilton, AND Votto if we really wanted to.

Not to mention Hamilton is injury prone, 32 years old, but also Texas' face. He's their Ichiro - its unlikely he doesn't resign there.

Votto is a better bet to hit FA, but by then the Cubs should be back in action. Theo, if nothing else, shows us that he's one of the best at signing top flight FAs.

Besides if we're playing that game I might prefer Ellsbury, Wright, Gordon, Zimmerman, or one of the other younger, just as good 3B/OF types. Or if you want to include trades too, a J Upton or McCutchen might even be available at that point...

33. By: gwangung on 01-04-2012 17:32:19
I think the point is not that Fielder isn't a good player. He is, but he isn't a stupendous, one in a lifetime, high value opportunity. He's a good to great opportunity, but not unique.

34. By: valencia on 01-04-2012 18:24:17
He's not unique, but you can make the argument he's the only one in his caliber (5+ WAR, under age 30) hitting FA in the next 2 years.

Besides, we can afford two or three of them if we really wanted. It's not like after we get Fielder, we can't get anymore FAs.

35. By: krob4mvp on 01-04-2012 19:23:47
I completely disagree that Prince isn't a "special" player. He is a big left-handed stick who hits for power, solid average, and gets on-base. In a near non-PED era this is exactly the type of offensive threat we need. Granted, he is below average in 3 tools (speed/defense/arm) his other 2 tools are "special" and "unique" and I would love to have him in the middle of our lineup.

36. By: gwangung on 01-05-2012 14:58:22
#34:

I.e., he's a good to great opportunity, not a unique once in a lifetime one.

Note, too, that you're implicitly arguing that there is pressure to compete NOW once we get him; otherwise, we're not taking advantage of his skills, therefore wasting money if there are still multiple holes on the team.

37. By: valencia on 01-05-2012 15:45:23
Why does it matter that he's not a unique once in a life time guy? If we keep waiting for Tom Brady, we're going to miss Aaron Rodgers.

I don't even understand how I implicitly think there's pressure to win now once we get him. I'm a win forever kind of guy. Screw the boom/bust cycle philosophy most teams follow, I want to be the Yankees.

You fill the holes with young players on your team. That's how you win. Signing 2-3 WAR players everywhere is the Oakland method of losing forever, no thanks.

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