| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 07-10-2011 |
I haven't heard the M's specifically linked to any bat, though there's been plenty of speculation about adding upgrades, despite those upgrades being fringe regulars in their own right. Let's take a look at five trades the Seattle Mariners might be able to make. Remember, I'm not suggesting the trade partner is interested in the M's player we're riffing about, and I'm not suggesting they'd be willing to part with the players listed below as coming back to Seattle.
What I am suggesting is that there is some logic to such transactions, and I have bounced these off some high-ranking scouts for cross-reference purposes.
Sitting 7 1/2 games back, it appears Seattle will have to sell, if anything, but there is time left for them to change that, and Zduriencik could make some lateral moves.
Subscribers can check out the five suggested trades by clicking here.
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Comments
The following 133 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: aerichner on 07-10-2011 23:53:02 I just like that Jack thinks out of the box and its very possible he wont just buy or sell, but do both. I like that. I remember Billy Beane doing that a loooong time ago (1999) when he dealt Billy Taylor to the Mets for Isringhausen (selling) and then all of a sudden landing one of the best arms on the market in Kevin Appier (buying) and I just thought, f***, I want someone like that as my GM. It might not happen but I believe Jack is that type of GM and I'm excited for whatever happens in the next 2-3 weeks. Giddy up. As always, excellent job on the site. Gracias! |
| 2. By: Jon O on 07-11-2011 00:43:19 JAC = Any chance they package League and Bedard together for an elite prospect like the injured and struggling Jesus Montero? Or would that just be a pipe dream? |
| 3. By: Edman on 07-11-2011 00:49:18 I do think Seattle is going to deal now, but I don't think it's going to be as proposed. Assuming that Seattle doesn't turn things around, which isn't likely with this offense, I'd expect the two primary pitchers that were names could be gone. I also expect that for the right price, Pauley could be had. He does have value for Seattle, as he's under team control and is cheap. But, if a team wanted an inexpensive upgrade and was more willing to give up a good prospect than take on salary, Jack would listen. Adam Kennedy has to hold some interest to a few teams as a guy who could provide some help on the infield, and for an NL club, a pinch-hitter off the bench. Jack Wilson could be traded, but he wouldn't bring anything of value back. If Kennedy is traded, Wilson has a role again. Bedard is the obvious trade chip. Who will he fetch? It's really hard to say. But, Jack is likely to wait as long as possible, until some team is willing to gamble a bit. Cust will probably be released. I do think that Wedge mismanaged him a little, but it's clear that he's not going to get much playing time. Evidently, Eric doesn't see much value in OBP. Even if he's not hitting the ball, he still draws walks. Let him try to find work elsewhere. |
| 4. By: FelixElRey on 07-11-2011 01:07:53 Obviously Z is going to have to wait until the last minute to deal Bedard. He'll need to have at least two solid outings for someone to bother dealing for him, and the latest estimate putting him at a July 22ish return really makes for a tight timeline. It pains me to think how much more trade value he would have if he didn't get hurt. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-11-2011 01:09:31 Jon O, Not likely, but neither are any of the oil scenarios I left by Sunday's paint brush. Generally, players are worth more separately than together. |
| 6. By: aerichner on 07-11-2011 01:10:59 Edman, I can see Adam Kennedy fitting nicely in Milwaukee and Atlanta. That's off the top of my head. Jack Wilson could be released...or traded for a PTBNL or Cash Considerations. Pauley, Wright...I'm not overvaluing RP so I can move them. I like Brandon League but if Matt Capps can get someone Wilson Ramos at the deadline, I'd like to know what (blocked) young hitter League can get us. Other than those I see Jack Zduriencik hitting a HR or Triple even if we're not contending this year. He'll have a (good) surprise for us. |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-11-2011 01:49:36 Considering the fact that League is under club control for another year after 2011 -- much like Matt Capps -- he could very well net something of somewhat similar value. But the right match has to come along for that to happen. That's the key. |
| 8. By: outfieldgrass on 07-11-2011 03:45:18 I like the deal with the Rangers for Olt and Teagarden. Would love to target Seth Smith and James Darnell as well. Not sure I want them to target players solely for this season. Sure we are close to the division lead but it has more to do with the division itself than our play. Stick with the plan. Build for the future. |
| 9. By: agcmmgdh on 07-11-2011 04:06:39 I know this is somewhat of a stretch but based on your opinion Jason, would it be easier to get say a Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier right now because of the Dodgers ownership problems? |
| 10. By: Rudolf on 07-11-2011 08:53:53 I fully expect Jack to deal for guys we've hardly even heard of because that's what he does. |
| 11. By: jgstecker on 07-11-2011 09:05:48 My thinking on League is that it would take a legitimate everyday bat to pry him away. Imagine our bullpen in 2012 without League - Lueke? Pauley? Laffey? Kelley? I don't see anyway around spending a decent chunk of cash to fix it without League to anchor it. He'll make $4-5 million in arbitration next year. The M's won't find a better option for less than that. Neither will any other teams which would justify his trade appeal. Still, if he can get us a DH/LF or catcher for the future, then it'll be worth it. Some other intriguing names for me would be Allen Craig, Chris Davis, Brandon Allen, and Yonder Alonso. |
| 12. By: marinerforever on 07-11-2011 10:37:27 I am struggling to see the point of signing Felix to a lengthy, expensive contract only to punt those years by trading useful MLers who could contribute in 2012 (League), and possibly beyond, for prospects who will not contribute till 2013. Considering most young players will put up merely league average numbers, if that, in their first year(s), it seems that the M's ought to trade Felix if they make personnel moves that wont have them competing in 2012-13. The point I'm making is: At what point is the future now? How much is Bedard likely to get via free agency? Depending on how he finishes the year, I was thinking 8 mil 2012 with 10 mil or 2 mil buyout for 2013. If that is the deal, would it be better just to resign him and trade Vargas who may have more value? Yes, Bedard has injuries, however, he is more effective when healthy, and proving he is, for roughly the same cost. Personally, I would like to keep them both for 2012 and make a decision on Vargas/Bedard after the season making room for Hultzen/Paxton in 2013, though I dont see that happening. Back to the article; I like Rasmus and would be happy in a deal for him as that would be a "Win With Felix" type deal. Thoughts and comments are appreciated |
| 13. By: FelixElRey on 07-11-2011 11:11:52 Since Bedard has shown some true loyalty to us the past few years as he has been determined to give back to a team that invested so much in him (at least that's the way I like to perceive things), I would be all for trading him with the plan to resign him in the offseason much like people wanted us to do with Washburn in 2009; of course, that was before he absolutely tanked for the Tigers the rest of the season. I feel like the conversation could be had easily..."Hey we would love to keep you, but we are still a few bats away from having a playoff team. We're going to try to trade you to a contender for the rest of the season and sign you as a free agent so we can all contend together in 2012 and beyond." |
| 14. By: aerichner on 07-11-2011 11:53:44 marinerforever, I like League and I get your point but I'm not holding on to a RP if I can get an everyday player close to the majors. I thought the same needed to happen with Aardsma after his breakout season. Capitalize on that value...before they get injured (Aardsma) and lose their value or simply come back down to earth. Saves get overvalued at the deadline and you need to capitalize on that. Aardsma wasnt a closer when he got to Seattle and neither was League - I'm sure we can find another one. but that's just my 2 cents |
| 15. By: Edman on 07-11-2011 12:33:09 #14, I disagree. Saves are undervalued. Stat geeks enjoy talking about their insignificance, but they are highly deflating to both the starting pitchers and the team, if there is no dependable way to hold on to games that should be won. No, you can't measure it as a stat. But, for team moral, it eats at a teams confidence if they can't close out games. You can make middle relievers, and to some extent, a set-up man, but reliable closers aren't that easy to replace. Hense, why Minnesota gave up Ramos to get Capps. If the team thinks that Aardsma can come back to repeat his 2009, then fine, League is tradable. You don't just make them. |
| 16. By: CyFelix on 07-11-2011 13:04:03 After the double he hit in the futures game, I immediately thought of that trade. I like it. |
| 17. By: subterranean on 07-11-2011 13:04:42 I hear what you are saying Ed, but I think that most stat geeks don't like the way the save has been defined as a statistic and the way it is used, not that there aren't high leverage situations, but that the stat doesn't account for a 'save' that occurs in the 7th inning. I still think those high leverage relievers are undervalued in comparison to guys who rack up big save numbers even in low leverage situations. |
| 18. By: Lailoken on 07-11-2011 13:42:45 JAC, What do you think about Kyle Blanks as a potential trade target? He's healthy again & raking in AAA. He's only 24 yo & has enough RH power that it could play in Safeco. Link |
| 19. By: slamcactus on 07-11-2011 13:43:05 No Brandon Allen love? They're not playing him above Juan Miranda or Xavier Nady (big mistake, IMO), and Paul Goldschmidt has probably passed him on the depth chart, so you have to figure he'll be moved this month. He'd probably slot in at DH rather than LF for the Ms unless we want more Peguero/Carp-type defense out there, but his bat is much better than either and he could be a decent long-term DH option. |
| 20. By: slamcactus on 07-11-2011 13:53:19 Also, if the Ms pulled off trade #3 I'd do several backflips. I'm a pretty big fan of the first player named, and his season line is dragged down by a really rough first month. Since April he's been more than holding his own despite being very young for the league. The 2nd player in the deal is interesting, but I'd take almost any other piece they'd offer to get that first guy. Man it's tough trying to avoid giving away premium content. |
| 21. By: short on 07-11-2011 13:56:10 So, Jason. Is Ackley + Smoak > Trout + Trumbo? Watching the Angels' new guys play this weekend kind of made me suicidal. |
| 22. By: marinerforever on 07-11-2011 14:05:43 Just because you don't like how a closer is deployed is not a good enough reason to trade him. Neither is chance of injury or ineffectiveness; any player is susceptible to to chance. JGStecker said it perfectly, "Imagine our bullpen in 2012 without League - Lueke? Pauley? Laffey? Kelley? I don't see anyway around spending a decent chunk of cash to fix it without League to anchor it. He'll make $4-5 million in arbitration next year. The M's won't find a better option for less than that." We seem to take pitching for granted in Seattle which is weird considering how many terrible pitchers we have had. How many of you really feel comfortable with the group of arms currently in the bullpen? Imagine it without League. Now fix it in free agency. |
| 23. By: Edman on 07-11-2011 14:17:46 I'm not Jason, but Short, that's kind of an unfair question. Ackley and Trout don't play similar positions. Ackley is an acceptable defensive secondbaseman, where Trout is a premiere defensive CF. Trout did not outplay Ackley this weekend. Other than one defensive gem, he didn't mean a lot to the Angel offense. Trumble had a big series, but it's a small sample size. Both sets of players should be valuable to their respective teams. If you feel suicidal, I'd put off loading the gun, at the moment. |
| 24. By: slamcactus on 07-11-2011 14:18:52 "He'll make $4-5 million in arbitration next year. The M's won't find a better option for less than that." It's really tough for me to remember an off-season where there hasn't been a reliever better than League who's signed for less than that dollar figure. |
| 25. By: Edman on 07-11-2011 14:22:00 #22, what some people forget is that in the bullpen, when you lose someone like your closer, others have to shift their roles to fill the void. You may not get the same results from those pitchers with a role change. I have hope for Lueke, Kelley and Fields, but at this point, it's just hope. Pauley and Laffey are pitching over their heads, IMO. And, for whatever reason, pitching is dominating throughout baseball. Maybe the ball is different this year, or more talented players are becoming pitchers. But nearly every team has been getting good performances from pitchers who were average last season. Don't fall in love with this year's first half numbers. |
| 26. By: ChrisKishimoto on 07-11-2011 14:22:21 Vinnie Catricala with another bomb today. Kid's looking like a pretty legit prospect. I haven't seen him getting much love from many analysts, so there must be flaws in his game that the statline isn't showing or they are just slacking. Where would any of you guys put him in our top 10? |
| 27. By: Edman on 07-11-2011 14:23:08 slamcatus.....do we have those cheaper options identified? |
| 28. By: ChrisKishimoto on 07-11-2011 14:25:47 Also, I've probably missed this in an earlier post somewhere, but where is Brandol Perez this year? |
| 29. By: slamcactus on 07-11-2011 14:38:31 Last year off the top of my head: Rafael Betancourt, Darren Oliver, Takeshi Saito, and Joaquin Benoit all signed MLB contracts in the off-season for less than $4 million (Benoit's deal with the Rays was less than $1 million). Santiago Casilla was a minor league free agent. Sergio Santos was obtained for future considerations. There are many, many more guys who are obtained for virtually nothing and step in as very good to dominant relievers. Any of these guys are good enough to close. The lesson from a guy like League and Aardsma succeeding when forced into closer role isn't "look at this diamond in the rough we've found! better hold onto him!" It's that virtually any decent reliever can do the job. |
| 30. By: slamcactus on 07-11-2011 14:46:34 "Vinnie Catricala with another bomb today. Kid's looking like a pretty legit prospect. I haven't seen him getting much love from many analysts, so there must be flaws in his game that the statline isn't showing or they are just slacking." He's not a lock to stick at 3B, which is a knock, but the big reason he gets no attention nationally is that he's been a 22 year old in High Desert most of this year (much like Nate Tenbrink before him). He keeps hitting like this in Jackson he'll start to get noticed. |
| 31. By: acqb1424 on 07-11-2011 14:55:43 The sixth player listed on the list of other prospects the M's could target would be exciting even though he is struggling this year. Would his parent club give him up after just drafting him last year? Would league be enough to land him? |
| 32. By: jgstecker on 07-11-2011 14:56:58 There are definitely bullpen bargains to be found in free agency. Zdurenciek may be as good as anyone at finding them even. However it doesn't mean a tram should go into the offseason counting on them. A couple of bad games from a Chris Ray or a Tyler Walker could sink a season in a hurry. And all of those relievers slam mentioned have had some pretty significant warts recently. Even the "sure thing" relievers like Rafael Soriano don't always pan out. League is a known commodity. Management identified him as a player who could thrive for the club and the results have backed that up. You don't trade something like that away unless it's a clear win for your team. Will that happen this year? Hard to say. |
| 33. By: short on 07-11-2011 14:57:58 Edman, I think it's a very fair question. CF and 2B are neighbors along the defensive spectrum. Trout looks like an All Star defensively, counterbalancing Ackley's superior bat, perhaps? The reason this is depressing is that it seemed to me the M's were catching up on talent by adding these two players, then the Angels show up with two players of seemingly similar combined talent level. It just looks as though we won't be catching the Angels any time soon on talent. |
| 34. By: slamcactus on 07-11-2011 15:03:45 "However it doesn't mean a tram should go into the offseason counting on them. A couple of bad games from a Chris Ray or a Tyler Walker could sink a season in a hurry." These aren't necessarily even bargains. $3 million for Darren Oliver was market value. Ditto Betancourt. $4-5million for a guy of League's talent level is an overpay. It would be roundly criticized as a waste of money if we gave the contract out in free agency. He's just not an impact guy. We can do better in free agency or in trade. |
| 35. By: slamcactus on 07-11-2011 15:05:47 "Even the "sure thing" relievers like Rafael Soriano don't always pan out. League is a known commodity." I don't know how you can write those two sentences in succession without stopping to pause and think that your argument may be wrong. League's no more known a commodity than Soriano. In fact, he's far inferior. Relievers are extremely fickle. The best bullpens this team has had have been cobbled together by assembling a dozen or so guys with live arms and evaluating what you've got in spring training. Some of the worst bullpens we've had have been the direct result of overpaying for mediocre relief talent in either free agent dollars (Eddie Guardado) or talent (Heathcliff Slocumb) |
| 36. By: aerichner on 07-11-2011 15:11:29 Edman, That's your opinion and that's cool. I prefer an everyday player or a SP than a RP so Im trading my RP if I can get that return. Also you say "stat geeks enjoy talking about their insignificance" and you might be right but I didnt mention stat geeks, I mentioned teams at the trading deadline, they WILL overpay for saves. League's value is higher NOW than it was last year, because he closes. Im sure there are a TON of middle relievers, minor leaguers that can close in the bigs, they just need the chance, the chance Aardsma got after bouncing around organizations. Heath Bell, rule 5 pick Joakim Soria, shortstop Sergio Santos, 1 pitch Matt Capps werent expensive gets, but they got the chance and they excelled. Heck even Ryan Franklin was racking up the saves not too long ago and now they just plugged in Fernando Salas and he's done great. I'm selling high on League and I'll take my chances finding a replacement be it Lueke or someone thats not currently in the organization. |
| 37. By: jgstecker on 07-11-2011 15:40:41 By "known" I simply mean "familiar to an organization". There's always an unknown element to free agency and players changing clubs. Any given player can fall apart at any time. Though I'd put my money on the younger guy to keep it together, more often than not. |
| 38. By: VikingArthur on 07-11-2011 16:20:24 I cannot believe there are those who think a "closer" is some critical piece to a winning club. Aardsma was a NO ONE... he became a closer and all the sudden he was valuable. League is more talented than DA but ultimately he is incredibly replaceable. I would have no problem with trading League for as much as you could get and shoving Lueke in or letting Wright or Pauley do it. They'd end up with similar numbers (hint...all but the elite closers end up with strikingly similar numbers and save %). Trade League ASAP. |
| 39. By: Edman on 07-11-2011 17:00:20 #38, that's a completely incorrect statement that Aardsma was a no one. Aardsma was drafted as a closer, taken in the first round of the 2003 draft by the Giants. To say that he became a closer is completely false. He was a closer in college and had experience as such. You seem to imply that they just threw an arm at the problem and it stuck to the wall. Another mis-quote is the "strikingly similar numbers and save %". That may appear to be the case to those to glance at statistics, but it isn't accurate when you get beyond the stats. It's just not as simple as you think. For a team like Seattle, who's offense has trouble producing three runs a game, the margin of error is much greater, if you can't recover from a reliever giving up a run. Don't think so? See Pauley, David, and the two runs he allowed after Felix pitched a good game. Multiply that by most of a bullpen, and it gets very demoralizing for a team. And no, there's no stat for that. If a team is willing to overpay for League, fine. But it's not like grabbing a new lego piece from the box. And, as tome point, as someone else said, you have to decide when to stop selling off parts, and when to start building. |
| 40. By: dawgncarolina on 07-11-2011 17:06:29 "For a team like Seattle, who's offense has trouble producing three runs a game, the margin of error is much greater, if you can't recover from a reliever giving up a run." Which is why the M's would be well served to turn anyone anointed with magical closer dust into offense, if at all possible. Statheads overstate how easy it is to replace closers, but the overarching point is true: Closers are much easier to replace than starting pitchers or everyday position players. If you can turn a closer into a contributor in the rotation or on the field, you do it. Whether League can fetch that kind of return I don't know. But the M's would we well served to find out. And Aardsma's draft status is kind of irrelevant. The M's didn't acquire him through the draft. They gave up a lower level borderline top 30 organizational prospect for him. He's a prime example of how a creative FO (like Seattle has) can find valuable relievers/closers for next to nothing. Are there guarantees? Of course not. But the odds are definitely stacked on the side that says we can find another closer cheaply and/or free. |
| 41. By: Edman on 07-11-2011 17:23:44 I'm not opposed to trading League, if the deal is right. Yes, it's easier to find a closer than a starter or an everyday player. Nobody said they weren't. However, some make it sound like you simply throw a failed starter into the role, and you get instant closer. Since the M's are still building, there is on urgent need to retain either League or Aardsma. But, at some point, you have to stablize your bullpen and the closer role. It's fairly easy to find useful arms to fill in, but successful teams have reliable pitchers to set-up and close ballgames. When that time is, I can't say. There are no guarantees, but there are times when you don't take unnecessary risks. |
| 42. By: Edman on 07-11-2011 17:28:27 BTW, dawg, Aardsma's draft status is relevant, when someone states that "Aardsma was a NO ONE... he became a closer and all the sudden...." That's not true, he had experience in the role. VikingArthur attempted to imply that he was an unknown quantity, and they made him a closer. Very not true. And yes, Jack and company were wise for trading for him. But it's not like they didn't know what they were getting. |
| 43. By: baseballman on 07-11-2011 17:40:36 "I cannot believe there are those who think a "closer" is some critical piece to a winning club...I would have no problem with trading League for as much as you could get...Trade League ASAP." This statement is so funny. If closers have so little value then how could we possibly expect anything in return for League? Jack Z must be stupid because he gave up Morrow for an easily replaceable non-closer turned closer League. It's quite humorous to me how in the exact same statement posters will proclaim how useless and easily replaceable closers are yet want the moon back in return when trading one away... They either carry value or they don't. And if they don't then why do teams trade for them and give up sometimes top pieces? And if they are so easily replaceable, then why doesn't every single team have closers in place already? |
| 44. By: nater on 07-11-2011 17:52:36 Not taking either side in this "closer" argument, just want to point out that they did only bring in Aardsma as an extra bullpen arm: he didn't get the closer role until he earned it while Morrow was injured during spring training. |
| 45. By: slamcactus on 07-11-2011 17:54:29 It's pretty simple. Closers have more trade value than actual value, especially on a team that's out of contention. They also typically have more trade value mid-season than pre-season. This value is declining as about half the teams in baseball have wised up to the relatively low value of non relief ace closeted like Brandon League, but there are still teams willing to overpay. Fewer, but they still exist. |
| 46. By: nater on 07-11-2011 17:56:19 basballman, I agree with your logic, but I think what people are getting at is that a closer/high leverage reliever is perceived to be valuable by a team in the heat of a pennant race and lacking someone reliable for those situations. But to a team just looking forward to the next season when hope will spring again, they don't really have as much value, particularly when we have a good track record of unearthing new closers. |
| 47. By: VikingArthur on 07-11-2011 18:20:42 If a guy like League in the 7th or 8th inning is the difference between winning a seven game series vs losing in Game 6 because you didn't have a reliable arm to get out of a jam... he has value. For a team that will win 70-80 games and REGARDLESS of his performance or lack thereof....he has negligible value. Closers are nearly all failed starters... every organization has 3-4 arms in AA/AAA or MLB who can do an adequate job (for a non-contender) as a closer. Look at the "elite" closers... Bell? Nobody until he was 30. Rivera? Failed starter. The list goes on and on. Hell... look at JJ Putz... went from no one to elite... back to set up and back to near elite. It is hands down the most fickle position in the sport, if you can get an above average utility man for a closer you make the deal UNLESS you are trying to win THIS year because by next year that "valuable closer" could be sporting a 8.00 ERA, a torn UCL (or labrum tear in the hip for example) or both. The M's could have gotten value for Aardsma last year... they wasted the chance. Hopefully they won't make the same mistake with League. |
| 48. By: tkballer22 on 07-11-2011 18:21:53 I think the whole "closer" idea is fine for a team that is attempting to make the playoffs. Brandon League becomes a more valuable asset to a team contending for a playoff position. Look at the haul Washington got for Matt Capps last year. Closers are not valuable to a team like Seattle who seem to be in a rebuilding youth movement. It is important to have a solid bullpen to help win close games, but in all honesty, our offense is offensive and I am tired of seeing us lose 2-1 in a game where our starter goes 6-7 innings, our bullpen closes things out, and we still lose because we can't hit the ball. What good is it for League to close close games on a losing team when he could be closing games with importance. Plus, I dont see him as a valuable part of the rebuilding process, especially when we have guys like Cortes, Lueke and Fields ready and waiting. I would rather see those guys earn their stripes and take their lumps at the major league level this year. Right now, we need offense and if League can fetch us a serviceable bat, then I am all for getting rid of him. |
| 49. By: nighthawk180 on 07-11-2011 18:36:21 Not saying to trade or not to trade League but this is one of Jack's best trading chips. This is also the guy who traded Putz, Jeremy Reed, Luis Valbuena and Shawn Green to Cleveland and Mets. We got back in return Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, Aaron Heilman, and four minor leaguers. The minor leaguers were Mike Carp, Jason Vargas, Maikel Cleto, Ezekiel Carrera. Not a bad haul for a getting expensive closer, a middling relief arm and a promising 2b. A starting CF, OUR #2/3 starting pitcher (i dont count Bedard been injured to much to be dependable), Carp 1b/LF/DH that maybe could help sometime down the line and a bunch of other players that we flipped for other players or minor league depth. I will say this though. Besides the Morrow trade which is still up in the air on who won that trade in my opinion when has Jack ever given any player up that wasnt equal to the value in return? I could say Ian Snell and Jack Wilson trade but what really has the stuff we gave up to get them really done? Not much. Just saying that Jack doesn't get bottom of the barrel players in his trades dont assume he will. He has a eye for talent lets hope he can use it to benefit the M's. Just my $.02 Nighthawk180 |
| 50. By: Blowgun7 on 07-11-2011 19:05:58 Jason, you got a quick scouting report on Morales down in Peoria? I know you said the M's really like him, but what kind of upside are we talking here? Are we talking about a guy they like to potentially be an average player in the outfield, or are we talking about a potential above average regular if he keeps developing? I guess my question is really about his ability to defend and what kind of bat speed/power he posesses? |
| 51. By: marinermutt on 07-11-2011 19:20:06 "BTW, dawg, Aardsma's draft status is relevant, when someone states that "Aardsma was a NO ONE... he became a closer and all the sudden...." That's not true, he had experience in the role. VikingArthur attempted to imply that he was an unknown quantity, and they made him a closer. Very not true" Aardsma was a nobody before he became to Seattle. He never had a save before coming to Seattle except for college (maybe minor leagues). He was a journeyman ballplayer when we got him. Drafted by SF, traded to the Cubs, moved to the White Sox and then the Red Sox. All in a span of 2006 - 2008. He was the definition of unknown quantity when we picked him up. There is a reason the Red Sox gave him to us for next to nothing. I say explore all we can and see what you can get for BL. We need hitters in the worst way. |
| 52. By: dewey on 07-11-2011 19:20:19 Look at the teams who have won world series in recent years and they have had proven closers Brian Wilson,Mariano Rivera,Brad Lidge and Pappelbon so if you want to get the ring you dont go cheap and unproven late in the games.We have gotten huge value out of League ,Laffey and Pauley but what our we? The answer is a losing team and i hate saying that but too undervalue the closers role isnt the way winners do it! |
| 53. By: dewey on 07-11-2011 19:23:56 It doesnt sound like we our trying to win this year so moving League sounds like a good move to me.Bedard is hurt again i dont think anyone will touch him especially with all the incentives that our coming but we may get value for Fister our Vargas if Jack thinks Beaven is the real thing.Does anyone thing Beaven is the real deal? |
| 54. By: Edman on 07-11-2011 20:10:01 To understand Jack's desire to trade League, you have to understand his personal expectations for the Mariners. Some of you are so fixated on the M's not winning THIS YEAR. Fine, most of us accept that. But, keeping League, if that's what Jack chooses to do, may be more about if he thinks the M's can compete next season and beyond. This notion that if you lose this year, that you have to trade all your valuable chips NOW, is short-sided thinking. Jack is also trying to change a culture of losing. Trading away key players on a yearly basis is not a way to change the culture, but rather perpetuates the concept that each season depends on the results for that year. Hense, giving the appearance that you have no real plan for the future. It's much more complex than simply trading this player or that. |
| 55. By: tpcman on 07-11-2011 20:23:58 Any deal needs to have Figgina salary drop in it. I'd trade Bedard and Fister as long as Figgins is in deal. Bevin can lock down #4 and we'll figure out #5 next year. Getting rid of Figgins salary may be more important than the talent we get back. |
| 56. By: dewey on 07-11-2011 20:36:28 I think in the offseason maybe they find a bad contract for bad contract deal for Figgy but i doubt it at the deadline alot of the big boys seem to be up against it money wise this year.Edman what do you think our the expectations? Waht our his valuable chips i guess is the question? The manager has changed the culture and he hasnt been handed a very good offensive team at all. Is anyone else concerened about Smoak? This is a tough time he is going through right now but the numbers kind of resemble last years a little. |
| 57. By: aerichner on 07-11-2011 21:22:16 Edman, the man with all the correct answers. Keep it up. You do awesome work for the site. |
| 58. By: aerichner on 07-11-2011 21:43:22 Fellas, Brandon League is a fine player. My initial statement was that I prefer a full time position player than a someone who will i give us 50-70 innings pitched per year. Lets keep Legue, that's fine....but shop him and see if you can get a blocked prospect at 3B/LF/C...you know, like the Nationals did last year getting Ramos for Capps. GREAT deal for the Nationals. Dont deal League just because we're not winning this year, thats not the reasoning here. If you get offered a kid you like at AA/AAA, do it Jack. |
| 59. By: dawgncarolina on 07-11-2011 23:38:37 Might be time to promote Alfredo Morales. Having another solid night. |
| 60. By: Edman on 07-11-2011 23:54:28 #57, I assume you mean that sarcastically. And, you're not selling high on League. League has had similar seasons the last three years. The only difference is the saves. That might be enough to get you a decent prospect, but honestly, there are a number of pitchers available. Depending on what San Diego would want for Bell, he's probably a more sought player. If Jack can find the right deal, go for it. Just recognize that he may not see it in the same way that some here do. |
| 61. By: Lailoken on 07-12-2011 00:38:56 I do not believe that Beavan is for real. Fister & Vargas are very reasonably priced, I'd hesitate to trade them. Vargas is getting expensive slowly but is still well worth his salary. I'd rather trade Beavan, two starts is a small sample size his stuff says Fister lite. |
| 62. By: FWBrodie on 07-12-2011 03:36:34 Fister's stuff once said "Fister lite" lite. |
| 63. By: maqman on 07-12-2011 10:55:55 dawgncarolina I agree on Morales. We have some promising looking players down in the lower leagues. |
| 64. By: 01v-dubs on 07-12-2011 11:20:45 I would love it if we were able to get Juan Francisco from the Reds for either League or Bedard, the kid has some serious thunder in his bat, and while he may not be able to stick at third, I'd imagine he'd be passable in left. Jason, I was wondering if you've been up to Everett recently, and if so if you saw de Jesus? I ask because he's a favorite of mine, and when I saw him in the AZL his immense potential was obvious. I was disappointed last year when he seemingly fell off the prospect map with his decrease in production and move to first base. However now he's having a nice year, and they are playing him at third again. I would be interested to hear your thoughts on him. Thanks |
| 65. By: Edman on 07-12-2011 11:27:34 #61, I'm just curious what teams seeking the playoffs would want to trade for a rookie starter with two MLB starts under his belt? You might be able to include Beavan in a deal, but the teams looking to deal want establish starters to help get them to the playoffs. So, you're looking at Bedard, Vargas or Fister, if you deal at all. |
| 66. By: nater on 07-12-2011 11:39:24 I agree with you Edman, about trying to change a culture of losing. I think it sends a terrible message to players to know if you aren't in contention when the All Star break rolls around, you are sure to be traded simply because you make more than league minimum. I do not think we should trade League at this point, unless someone will overpay by so much that we just can't say no. But moving him simply as a function of not being in contention this year seems like a bad policy. I would think that would be horribly demoralizing to our cornerstone guys like Felix, Smoak, Gutierrez, and Ackley. |
| 67. By: marinerforever on 07-12-2011 12:02:38 You guys don't have tgo worry gmz is not gonna make a trade just for fun. But lierally the season will be over in less we tale atleast 3out of 4 from the rangers and if somone wants to give a bplus prospect for league or bedard you have to consider it |
| 68. By: Edman on 07-12-2011 12:15:00 There are really only a few players who can be moved without impacting next year's club. Bedard is obvious. And, if we did trade him, we could always resign him in the offseason, if he wanted to come back. Kennedy has value for some teams. He's not going to bring back much more than a B level prospect, but he didn't cost much to sign, so that's a gain. Jack Wilson probably has some value for his defense, but his contract makes him difficult to move. If they feel Aardsma is going to recover, then League could be moved. But, I don't see Jack moving him unless Aardsma can close games next season. Lueke, Cortes, etc. simply aren't ready. September call-ups yes. But none of them have really shined in Tacoma. Figgins is stuck in Seattle, unless we pay for most of his contract or include Michael Pineda, which ain't happening. So really, there isn't much for Jack to deal with, unless he takes some big risks. |
| 69. By: Jerry on 07-12-2011 12:17:06 I absolutely LOVE the idea of going after Rasmus. That is exactly the type of player this club needs: a young position player who can hit in the middle of a lineup AND help on defense. He would be worth the risk. |
| 70. By: slamcactus on 07-12-2011 12:36:15 Unfortunately Rasmus is also exactly the kind of player St. Louis needs, or any other team really. He's not going anywhere. And if he is, the package you're talking about starts with Gutierrez and Pineda, and probably has another top prospect like Franklin or Walker thrown in. |
| 71. By: jgstecker on 07-12-2011 13:06:26 I don't know that Rasmus' price tag will be that high. He's certainly not worth Pineda straight up. Ramsus has 3 full years remaining and those are all at arbitration prices. His stock has dropped considerably in the past year, due to his increasing salary and superficial regression at the plate. A return of Bedard and League plus a Franklin/Walker caliber prospect would be a competitve offer. Rasmus has become expendable in STL. They can replace his current production with Jay and Craig and not skip a beat. And its not like he's got a lot of backers in the organization. |
| 72. By: Edman on 07-12-2011 14:17:28 Even at that price, the tag is too high. Seattle would give up too much of it's own talent to get a player who has yet to prove he's worth all the hype. Seattle cannot afford to weaken itself internally, to get one player, unless he's proven. |
| 73. By: jgstecker on 07-12-2011 14:51:54 I'd do that deal. From the M's standpoint, its one year of League + 6 years of Franklin for 3 of Rasmus. Given that it rapidly accelerates our playoff timetable, it'd be worth it. Rasmus may not be a star yet, but he is a proven regular. He'd be a lock for a .700+ OPS in Seattle with above average LF defense. We'd be in this race if we had that in LF all year. Rasmus is an adjustment or two from breaking out. Franklin and Walker have a lot of very difficult tests to pass before they reach their potential. |
| 74. By: dawgncarolina on 07-12-2011 15:23:08 OT but I'd love to get everyone's opinions on this crazy story out of the Dominican. http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/07/report-three-players-accuse-dominican-trainer-of-sexual-abuse/ I'd especially love to hear what Jason and slamcactus think about this. Scary stuff about Esteillon. |
| 75. By: baseballman on 07-12-2011 16:02:54 Wow dawg that is quite the scary story. So Esteillon might be related to Yunior and we also have Soto's son in our organization?? This story is littered with Seattle. |
| 76. By: FWBrodie on 07-12-2011 16:08:35 @70 Waaaaaay overboard on Rasmus' value. |
| 77. By: baseballman on 07-12-2011 16:09:44 Lol yeah, Guti, Pineda AND Walker/Franklin??!! Ha, uh no |
| 78. By: slamcactus on 07-12-2011 16:16:33 "I don't know that Rasmus' price tag will be that high. He's certainly not worth Pineda straight up. Ramsus has 3 full years remaining and those are all at arbitration prices. His stock has dropped considerably in the past year, due to his increasing salary and superficial regression at the plate. A return of Bedard and League plus a Franklin/Walker caliber prospect would be a competitve offer." I'd trade Pineda straight up for Rasmus in a heartbeat. I really doubt St. Louis would, though. Rasmus is more expensive and under control for 2 fewer years, but center fielders are much better risks than fireballing SPs. Especially 24-year-old center fielders with bigtime left-handed power who've shown they're capable of putting up seasons like his 2010 at the age of 23. We're still not in huge samples for this season, and Rasmus's present line is dragged down by a recent mini-slump - his OPS has dropped almost 50 points in only 8 games. I know you probably understand this (since you said "superficial regression"), but it bears repeating: when the samples are large, quoting the season stat-line during a present slump is going to be incredibly misleading. He's a very good player with the potential to be a great one, and everyone around the league knows that La Russa's staff have been meddling with his swing to almost criminal result. |
| 79. By: slamcactus on 07-12-2011 16:23:43 Yeah, I wouldn't do that deal either, but I do think that's about the kind of value he'd command on the trade market. 24 year old CFs with power don't grow on trees. There'd be huge demand for Rasmus if he was available. |
| 80. By: dawgncarolina on 07-12-2011 17:07:45 "24 year old CFs with power don't grow on trees" Just trade them Erik Bedard for him. They'll have to throw in a great pitching prospect, near ready major league reliever, left handed *proven closer* and a low level lefty arm to balance out the deal. |
| 81. By: dewey on 07-12-2011 19:40:53 #73 6 years of Franklin doesnt he have to get to the bigs first just because he is hyped doesnt mean he will ever reach the M.L. No one answered is anyone worried about Smoak his mubers our allmost the same as last years and they werent good? Rasmus is a proven guy and Pineda is a proven 1/2 half guy that has alot of value i believe that trade would be fair straight up.Also does anyone worry about Guti also he hasnt came out of this funk for about a year and a half and we gave him 4 years i think..? I dont think we our ready to win our contend this year but Jack has them headed in the right direction i believe. |
| 82. By: dawgncarolina on 07-12-2011 20:27:54 I'm not too worried about Smoak yet - he's not really doing much differently than he was earlier in the year he's just not getting balls to fall in. I think he'll be fine. I'm more worried about Guti. He's still a defensive whiz but the stomach thing has clearly sapped his strength and destroyed his ability to contribute at the plate. His glove is good enough that he's not going to kill us, but it's not shaping up to be the bargain that it looked like either. |
| 83. By: baseballman on 07-12-2011 23:22:58 Why should we be worried about Smoak? |
| 84. By: dewey on 07-12-2011 23:27:08 Because in 600 M.L. at bats he is hitting .220? Between last year and this year that isnt good is it? |
| 85. By: Lailoken on 07-12-2011 23:48:28 In response to post #65. Edman, No, I wasn't trying to say that Beavan should be the centerpiece of a trade in post 61. I was merely stating that I'd rather trade him than Vargas or Fister. If a trade with Bedard, League, Kennedy, Wilson, Aardsma, Guti, Wright, Figgins, Peguero, Seager, &/or Saunders is sweetened enough by the addition of Beavan for GMZ to include him I would not be opposed. On the flipside if the M's make a crazy run after the all-star break before the trade deadline trades including Beavan, Peguero, Seager, Saunders, & other prospects besides Walker, Franklin, Paxton, Pimentel, & Triunfel wouldn't make me blink. I do hope they keep Lueke, Pryor, & Kelley around though since the bullpen has upcoming FAs. |
| 86. By: Gibbo on 07-13-2011 04:39:53 Hey there am keen to subscribe but when I get the amazon screen it makes it reoccurring payment for 10 years so, which my visa won't allow. Is there anyway around this? Great site too! |
| 87. By: Gibbo on 07-13-2011 04:59:51 Forget that I got it sorted, cheers |
| 88. By: stickball on 07-13-2011 09:15:46 "24 year old CFs with power don't grow on trees." Rasmus is a fringe CF, and beginning to look like McLouth. The GM's won't be as willing to give up as much for a fringe CF. |
| 89. By: masonb on 07-13-2011 17:49:49 Vargas/Fister, and another B- level prospect for Alex Gordon. Any chance the Royals would be interested in that? |
| 90. By: slamcactus on 07-13-2011 19:05:13 mason: I highly doubt it. Vargas won't be that cheap for his last 2 years of club-control, and Gordon's a more valuable player. Dayton Moore is one of the hardest GMs in baseball to predict, but I can't see him overpaying for Vargas or shipping Gordon out now that he's finally beginning to cash in on some of the promise he showed as a prospect. |
| 91. By: slick on 07-13-2011 22:14:16 I think the Mariners could figure something out, and gain a young mlb bat, you could shop league to the Cardinals or the Yankees for a young arm then mix in a triunfel and Lueke to the Royals for oh say a Butler who will hit arbitration this offseason. As for replacing League you could have pauley and Wright/Ray audition. If Seattle is willing to spend 4 or 5 million on a closer next year the could go Rodney Valverde Madson Capps Fransico. |
| 92. By: Boy9988 on 07-13-2011 23:35:39 Recently people have been talking about trading Michael Pineda for more pieces to add to the club. Someone farther up mentioned that to get Rasmus it would take Pineda plus Walker or Franklin(#70-something I don't agree with). Today Tim Dierkes had a chat on MLB trade rumors and mentioned that Pineda's value is closer to Mike Trout. I was just wondering if you agree with that assessment. |
| 93. By: safecochatter on 07-14-2011 00:38:16 pineda and ++ for rasmus? not me,a lot more outfielders out there then there are tor pitchers with 4 years of team control. i wouldn't even do pineda for rasmus straight up. but trout,that's a little different. that i would do. kinda of a nice little piece on taijuan walker at milb.com it's called "walker goes the distance". don't want to spoil it,but he does retire the last 17 batters faced... |
| 94. By: Madison Mariner on 07-14-2011 13:11:14 "I think the Mariners could figure something out, and gain a young mlb bat, you could shop league to the Cardinals or the Yankees for a young arm then mix in a triunfel and Lueke to the Royals for oh say a Butler who will hit arbitration this offseason." Just an FYI, but Billy Butler was arb-eligible for the first time this past offseason, and the Royals responded by giving him a 4-year contract, buying out all 3 arb-eligible seasons(2011-13) and 1 FA year(2014). Not that such a thing precludes them from trading him, but I tend to think they won't trade him now, as they view him, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas as the core of their offense going forward(and Wil Myers, too, to an extent, but he hasn't even made his MLB debut yet.) I do like the idea of targeting a young bat, but as the recent FanGraphs series on trade value(done by Dave Cameron) points out, the younger and more cost-controlled players will require a higher premium of talent to pry them loose, and players who are within their first year or two of MLB service time who haven't even become arb-eligible, well...it would be hard to acquire such a player(there are exceptions where a team may make the player available, like the Colby Rasmus rumors, but those seem to be the exception). My hope is that M's would pursue someone like Hunter Pence, either now or in the offseason. He's got 2 years until he can become a free agent(after the 2013 season), and Houston should be trading whatever they can to rebuild. He'd cost the M's a decent package, but if they could build such a package around one of our young pitchers not named Pineda(like Jason Vargas) and Nick Franklin, along with perhaps another young pitching prospect(I'd prefer to not give up Taijuan Walker, but perhaps James Paxton if we waited until the offseason, closer to the 1 year since he signed in January 2011), then that would be great. It would be nice if we could get such a deal done in the next few weeks, but I wouldn't hold my breath(and if we did do such a deal, we couldn't include Paxton). If, as I suspect, we can't get that deal done, I'd keep Vargas for now and look into trading League and Bedard. It will be tough to get anything great back for Bedard with him being on the DL currently, but I would hope he'd be interested in returning on a 2-year contract in the offseason as a free agent. I was opposed to dealing League initially because he's brought stability to the bullpen and could do so again next year, but there are other options for both the current season and next season if Jack Z. gets creative, which we know he can. :) (And, it goes without saying that we should look to trade guys like Adam Kennedy and Jack Wilson and get anything we can for them. We still have Luis Rodriguez to serve as the utility IF--he still has options. And we have Seager, too.) |
| 95. By: rjfrik on 07-14-2011 18:17:38 What about picking up Willy Mo Pena to shore up LF. He was just DFA'd by Arizona and I'm sure we could have him for a bag of peanuts or a minor league filler. Grab Pena for the rest of the year and send C.P. back down to the farm. |
| 96. By: rjfrik on 07-14-2011 18:27:19 Also, Jason. I remember you saying that you might put together a very early look at the top ten guys in the draft for next year after this years draft. Curious if that is still a possibility. I'm fairly confident we will have a top ten pick and it would be cool to start following some of the top ten kids in various summer leagues that they might be in. Thanks |
| 97. By: dewey on 07-14-2011 18:56:03 I saw Willie Mo play LF in Reno this year Peguro is a GOLD GLOVER compared to Pena.If that tells you something he cant move out there Awful! |
| 98. By: safecochatter on 07-14-2011 20:35:55 paxton 11 k's in 5 innings tonight. pushing him a touch by putting him in aa looks like a good idea.. |
| 99. By: slamcactus on 07-15-2011 20:36:35 With all the talk of blocked prospects on Louisville, one name has been completely unmentioned. Jeremy Hermida, now 27 years old, is hitting .322/.409/.500 down there, and has zero future with that club. He could likely be had for a song. The last time he got regular playing time in the majors he hit .259/.348/.392. That may not look like much, but that line alone with zero improvement would make him the third best hitter on this year's team behind Ackley and Smoak. And he's still the guy who put up an .830 OPS as a 23-year-old. Hermida stalled out somewhere along the line, but in today's depressed offensive environment he's an above-average hitter even if he doesn't improve on his age-25 line. Defensively he's not much of an upgrade over what we've been seeing from Peguero, but I think it's worth taking a chance on that bat. |
| 100. By: slamcactus on 07-15-2011 20:38:05 "Just an FYI, but Billy Butler was arb-eligible for the first time this past offseason, and the Royals responded by giving him a 4-year contract, buying out all 3 arb-eligible seasons(2011-13) and 1 FA year(2014). Not that such a thing precludes them from trading him, but I tend to think they won't trade him now, as they view him, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas as the core of their offense going forward(and Wil Myers, too, to an extent, but he hasn't even made his MLB debut yet.)" Butler's also a total fan favorite in KC, and they're a team that puts a lot of stock in that (how could they not be? It's not exactly easy to put butts in the seats in KC these days). |
| 101. By: rjfrik on 07-15-2011 23:21:06 Wow this team is really really bad. Hard to watch. |
| 102. By: safecochatter on 07-15-2011 23:40:28 Watch your back Jack! Nobody here saying your not doing a good job with the minor league system. but your not an assistant gm anymore. and your #1 job is to field a competitive MLB team. And your time is about up! |
| 103. By: Mackie on 07-16-2011 01:28:03 They are very hard to watch. The club needs to be careful not to lose too much more of its fan base. The second half of this season could end up proving deadly for attendance. It is great to keep playing the kids but if they are going to keep playing them next season like they are now, then the front office needs to surround them with better veterans. Cust, Figgins, Olivo, Ichiro (in his apparent decline) and Gutierrez (health issues?) aren't providing the kind of support the kids need in the lineup, nor are they helping the team score runs. I like Ryan's glove a lot, but he and Kennedy are not great hitters either. Add some better vets, and it will give the team a better chance to win while it rebuilds. I believe while such an approach might appear to fly in the face of the "rebuild", it would be good if they could get a couple of players with names some of the more casual fans might recognize. Get Nintendo to spend some more money for 2012, and get a couple of good players. Maybe sacrifice a a bit and make a trade for an impact player. But upgrade the ball club, and give the fans some hope so they will keep showing up at Safeco. I love prospects, and it is fun to follow them. But right now, the ones who are closest to the majors are getting their audition or else will be getting a shot in the next couple months. Others won't be arriving in Seattle so soon. Our GM will know a lot more by the end of the season about what he needs to do over the winter. He may need to get a placeholder or two for kids the M's are counting on for 2013 or later, and/or he may need to replace a vet or two. I hope he does not exclusively trade for or sign bargain basement players off the scrap heap, because I think he needs to go out and get about three players who can help right away. |
| 104. By: Mackie on 07-16-2011 01:32:12 And I'm talking about what to do for next season. For the rest of this year, just keep playing the youngsters, and learn more about their skills and limitations. And for the whole roster, figure out (if they can) who figures into the future or not, then make adjustments over the winter. And any winter moves made don't have to be Bavasi-esque either, i.e. motivated by panic. Just made with the idea in mind that lots of fans are going to want to see results sooner. They can stay competitive while they rebuild, if they get the right players (easier said than done, but they need to do it). |
| 105. By: marinerforever on 07-16-2011 03:51:47 If Jeremy Hermida was an above average offensive player he would be in the majors somewhere. In fact, he has now bounced around with 3 organizations and can't stay on a ML roster. The M's could stock the league with AAAA LFers, we don't need more. I think we can all agree that virtually any player is better than Carlos Peguero. With that in mind, let's stop using him as a measuring stick for talent. Not that I believe he will be traded but, has anyone looked at Billy Butler's numbers recently? His ISO is headed the wrong direction and while his K and BB ratio's are improving, he has not become better. Alex Gordon is a bit better but really only has this year as proof he is not a bust. Neither of these guys is the high quality hitter the M's really want to be giving up future impact talent for. Hopes and promises are not good enough for my money. This team needs production. Question that I think I know the answer to: With Aardsma out with TJ surgery, does that change League's value to the M's and does it change your opinion on trading him? |
| 106. By: dewey on 07-16-2011 03:52:14 Jason im just a fan but isnt Jack known for his ability to find hitters? We have had the worst offense in baseball the last 2 years havent we? I mean ive seen him give multi year deals to Chone and Guti and Jack Wilson and they have all blowed? Correct? Cust brutal...Smoak mediucre at best and dont say he is young he is 25 2 years in the big leagues and is hitting a combined ,222 in 650 major league at bats yes he has power but is not gonna hit .He hits offspeed stuff guys with fastballs on inner third he cant touch.I love the Mariners but Jack may not be the guy they say in Jack we trust anyone else feel this way? |
| 107. By: slamcactus on 07-16-2011 10:09:47 "If Jeremy Hermida was an above average offensive player he would be in the majors somewhere." Right, because no major league team has ever given up on a former top prospect prematurely. Carlos Pena's breakout never happened. I suppose we should ignore the late-20s breakouts of former top prospects Alex Gordon and Brandon Phillips, too. Or Corey Patterson's return to usefulness. The list goes on and on. Jeremy Hermida's last OPS in the majors (2 years ago, as a 25-year-old) was .740. The average AL hitter this year is OPSing .720. Even if there isn't one ounce more talent in him than his 2009 line, he'd be one of the most productive hitters on this team. And there very well may be more talent in there. And he can be had for virtually free. "The M's could stock the league with AAAA LFers, we don't need more." Sure, but it would be nice if at least one of them had a chance to stick. Peguero doesn't. Carp has an outside chance. Hermida has a much better chance than either of them. |
| 108. By: slamcactus on 07-16-2011 10:18:36 "Hopes and promises are not good enough for my money. This team needs production." This team doesn't need proven hitters. It needs good hitters. The quest for proven veterans over the past decade has brought us such lineup stalwarts as Rich Aurilia, Jeff Cirillo, Greg Colbrunn, Scott Spiezio, Jose Vidro, Chone Figgins, the 2009-2010 version of Ken Griffey, Eric Byrnes, Carl Everett...the list goes on. This team is not in a position to go out and trade for Carlos Beltran or Jose Reyes. They're not signing Prince Fielder in the off-season. Right now, this team needs to roll the dice on people with upside. |
| 109. By: Jerry on 07-16-2011 10:27:44 How about this stupid trade: Pineda, Saunders, Guti, and League to STL for CF Colby Rasmus, RHP Shelby Miller, RHP Tyrell Jenkins, and 3B Matt Carpenter. Rasumus and Carpenter could start for the M's immediately, while Miller could replace Pineda by next year. Probably too rich for the Birds, tho. |
| 110. By: baseballman on 07-16-2011 11:41:11 Uh, some of the desperartion comments are exactly why we are in this mess. Absolutely no patience... I think people were actually more happy with Bavasi "running" things rather a true re-build by building up the farm. Jack Z was hired to turn this club into a contender, a club with no farm, aging players and a bloated payroll. That doesn't change over night. This club is taking strides and Jack Z is well aware of the offensive struggles. IT TAKES TIME, but I guess no one really either remembers how bad it truly was or people just don't care. |
| 111. By: baseballman on 07-16-2011 11:43:22 For comments like 102 and 106, what do you propose Jack Z does? Hmmm? You want him to go out and spend big in FA? You want him to sell the farm? What? Because it sure sounds like you're not patient enough to give him the appropriate amount of time to truly re-build this organization, so those two options seems to be the only ones to "speed" up the process. |
| 112. By: rotoenquire on 07-16-2011 12:05:15 The twins are in such dire need for bull pen help. A deal with them could net the best prospect even if there NOT what we need. M Sano is there best power bat, but he translates in the majors as a 1B and is a few years away. They have pitching depth to deal with starters L. Hendricks and K. Gibson for example. If a trade is made I would be it maybe similar to what the M's did with Putz a few years ago. Say this, B. League CL, M. Saunders OF to Min. for L. Hendricks RHP and O. Arcia OF Min You then trade Arcia and Henricks to S.D. For Ludwick OF. Shores up LF. Then trade A. Kennedy UT to Mil M. Gamel 1B/DH. Takes care of DH. Resign E. Bedard in the off season. Sign a C.C. Sabathia Type pitcher in the off seaon. Moving you #5 starter to the Pen. Aardsma returns next year as your closer. I do not think a Fielder deal is one the M's will do for such a long contract. Sabathia would be a shorter contract and maybe even K-rod and put Aardsma back to the set up role. Is far more up there alley. Trading Figgins to Pit and eating a large amount of the contract makes since as well. Maybe getting J. Harrison in return would be a decent get to play 3B. Gamel and Ludwick would be large power upgrades from what we got at a decent price. And we would have the best rotation and pen in all of baseball. |
| 113. By: rjfrik on 07-16-2011 13:12:06 Wait you want to trade League (an All-star) and a prospect (who still has some value) for Ludwick? Umm. No thanks. You either are completely undervaluing the M's pieces or overvaluing Ludwick. We also do not need to spend any money on pitching this offseason. We will actually have some money to spend, the last thing we need to do is go buy another ace. I could see resigning Bedard on the cheap, but leave CC alone. All of our money needs to be spent on hitters, LF, DH, 3B. Honestly I don't think the M's do any moves this deadline. They just don't really have any pieces to sell. If Bedard didn't go on the damn DL then we actually might have the top pitching trade chip in all of baseball, but, of course he gets hurt and loses all of his shine. Bottom line is it really sucks to be an M fan right now. Seems to be no immediate help, 3 of our top 4 prospects are pitchers and Franklin is at least 2 more years away. |
| 114. By: slamcactus on 07-16-2011 14:32:00 That's pretty unnecessarily gloomy, dude. Yes, 3 of our top 4 prospects are pitchers, but A) they're top-100 type pitchers, B) the 4th is a top-100 guy as well, C) there's a good chance Guillermo Pimentel will also get some consideration for the back end of the t-100 (he'll be on BP's, BA's is more of a stretch), and D) the system just graduated 2 pretty good hitters to the majors in Ackley and Seager. I too would love to have more top prospects in the form of position players in the high minors, but the system's not exactly barren. It's a top-half system right now even after the graduations of last year's top-2 prospects. That's actually kind of awesome. This is the deepest the system's been since I started following it closely in 2003, and Hultzen and Walker are legitimate impact talents at the top. A lot of that talent may be far away, but that doesn't mean it can't help us net major leaguers in the form of trades. I expect Z to be pretty active on that front this off-season to try and get one or two more core-type players. |
| 115. By: slamcactus on 07-16-2011 14:32:46 Also, RJ's 100% correct that Ludwick will cost far less than League + a prospect. For one, SD doesn't really have a great need for League. They've got a great bullpen. For two, Ludwick's a spare part. He'll cost a low-minors arm or fringe bat. |
| 116. By: marinerforever on 07-16-2011 15:46:35 This may be a little far fetched but what about tajiun walker to the royals for hosmer the royals are desprate for pitching and it would net you another moto bat and you would still have paxson and hultzen to go with felix and pineda your thoughts and comments are welcome |
| 117. By: rjfrik on 07-16-2011 16:18:21 Mariner - I'm not sure if you follow the Royals system at all but they are actually stacked at pitching in the form of high end prospects. All the Royals need is a little more time for them to graduate from farm to the bigs. The last thing they would do would be to trade arguably their best young hitter for another top pitching prospect when they have 3 of them just like Walker. Slam - In no way was I discrediting our minor league system. I think its awesome even though most publications think its middle of the pack. I was just referring to the lack of position help then can come in and help next year or the year after. Yes our pitching is unreal. I love it. Felix, Pineda, Hultzen, Walker and Paxton we are completely set. I fully expect a some pitcher to be dealt for a bat in the in the next year. It just has to. Vargas, Fister, Bedard or one of the prospects, but someone has to get dealt. It's the only way to bring a premium young bat in here. |
| 118. By: rjfrik on 07-16-2011 18:46:26 Well according to various tweets the M's have been fielding calls on Bedard, League, Wright and Kennedy. We shall see if anything materializes. |
| 119. By: marinerforever on 07-16-2011 18:48:29 rjfrik so who are these 3 top tor arms as fas as i can tell they have mike mongemery they are looking for young pitching if taijaun walker was a year father along it would proably be a great deal for both teams |
| 120. By: johnfree on 07-16-2011 19:43:33 marinerforever, The Royals also have John Lamb and Jake Odorizzi. Both were Top 50 prospects according to MLB.com, and Top 100 Prospects by Keith Law and Baseball America at the beginning of the year. John Lamb as fallen a bit in the mid-season Top 50 list(probably not out of the Top 100) because of an injury but rjfrik is right. Starting Pitching prospects are not a priority for the Royals and they sure as heck aren't going to be trading Hosmer or Moustakas. |
| 121. By: VikingArthur on 07-16-2011 19:57:59 Walker for Hosmer? I'd be shocked if the Royals would trade Hosmer for Pineda and they'd be right. A single A pitcher for a legit ML bat who is in his early 20s and under team control? Absurdity. Classic over valuing of hometeam prospects. |
| 122. By: safecochatter on 07-16-2011 20:41:04 111 For comments like 102 and 106, what do you propose Jack Z does? Hmmm? well you must have a thin skin baseballman. neither one of was bashing that hard. I'm really starting to believe you are in the m's org. anyway the first thing jack should do is stop diving into dumpsters for players. as in "here you are folks...your 2011 Seattle Dumpster Divers baseball team"! |
| 123. By: baseballman on 07-16-2011 21:16:12 Thin skin? Nope. I just have an understanding of what a true re-build means. Obviously you don't... |
| 124. By: krob4mvp on 07-17-2011 00:03:56 Justin Smoak needs to get his head out of his ASS....ASAP! Man, I feel better! I could say this about every other player on this roster but this is the guy I look to see improvement game-to-game (because of his talent) but all I see is regression and disappointment. |
| 125. By: dewey on 07-17-2011 00:47:57 Baseball man no one said anything about getting a big free agent but Jack is supposed to be known for good hitters all i did was point out alot of misses he has had here.Figgy,Guti,Cust etc where our the good ones? Smoak the jury is really out there he cant hit the fastball dead soft stuff hitter.Kennedy i will give you that he has been better then we thought but nothing special.Jack Wilson brutal..Ryan so so..If im a bad fan for pointing this out then so be it i dont drink the Kool aid and fall in love with junk because its my favorite team .Our payrole is plenty to put a winner on the field dont blame Chuck and Howard they dont sign the players they give the GM a budget to do the work.. |
| 126. By: marinerforever on 07-17-2011 01:36:48 Viking arthur Over vauling hometown prospects have u looked at walkers stats he is dominating at age 19 he is ranked at the 38 in the top 50 and no one where for him to go but up if this were next year everyone would be drooling over walker my guess is he will be top 15 prospect |
| 127. By: baseballman on 07-17-2011 12:09:30 Re 125: I honestly have no idea what point you're trying to make but if it's that Kennedy is the only good offensive addition Jack Z has made to this team well...lol, nevermind. |
| 128. By: baseballman on 07-17-2011 12:11:04 Also dewey, how is my belief that Jack Z needs more time "drinking koolaid?" |
| 129. By: skyway park on 07-17-2011 13:13:20 Jason or anyone else who cares to comment. Does anyone know how highly the Red Sox prospect Will Middlebrooks is valued? I was wondering if they might be willing to give him up in a trade for some of are piching, since injuries have seem to have taken a toll on them. |
| 130. By: Edman on 07-17-2011 18:54:13 dewey, Jack is known for drafting hitters. Since he's never been a GM before, he doesn't have a history for trading for them. This is going to take some time. He was burdened with some bad contracts. And, nobody expected Figgins to be this damn bad, even with the most pessimistic view. Give Jack a budget where he can go out and get good free agents, then judge him. But, it would be foolish to spend money on Free Agents, until some budget is cleared, and you have a better idea of what you need. You have to know what you can fill internally, first, before you start committing a lot of dollars outside the organization. You're not a bad or good fan, dewey, but you definitely see the glass as half empty. I don't fall in love with minor league batting averages. They are often misleading. It's more about the quality of a hitter's swing, than the results of it. So what, guys like Langerhans and Wilson can hit AAA pitching. Most, will never see the majors. Someone mentioned Jeremy Hermida and his AAA numbers. The Rainiers have similar guys. Why go buy from someone else? I do think they rushed Seager to the majors. There was no real need to do that. Because he and Ackley were teammates, doesn't mean you'll get the same results. Even though is defense isn't as good, I'd rather they had called up Mangini, and left Seager in Tacoma. The results may not have been any different, but Seager would be allowed time to adjust to AAA, before being pushed to Seattle. |
| 131. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-17-2011 21:59:21 And, nobody expected Figgins to be this damn bad, even with the most pessimistic view. If you had told me when Figgins was signed that less than halfway into the contract he would be this awful- and one of the worst contracts in this franchise's all-too-lengthy history of bad contracts- I'd've had to fight the urge to laugh in your face. NO ONE predicted this. As for the team, look. We've got hope on the near horizon- in 2012 and 2013. But everybody saw a weak division and an injury-riddled favorite in Texas this year. And now that the sniff has not lead to the taste? People and fans want an expedited plan or a total blow-up, hoping that the pieces from the blow-up add up to something good. Admit it, all this frustration has got some of you thinking doom, gloom, "we're never gonna win ever again" and "massive shakeup necessary". You want Jack to spin gold out of straw (sorry, Edman- I believe you've used this phrase before- but I don't think a better one exists to exemplify the current desire of the fan-base, so I'm using it too.) and produce a lineup that can mash with anyone. Yesterday. I think the better days- which includes that lineup that can mash- are still coming, just like what the plan has been all along. I'm sick of losing as much as anyone, but I'm still believing we're on the right track. At least let's see what Zduriencik can do with the trading deadline this year before we start with the "he wins in '12 or his ass gets canned!" talk. Myself, I slightly disagree with Edman on Hermida. I think he could be an excellent buy-low candidate who just needs scenery change. I'd give him a shot, anyway- considering that he wouldn't cost me very much to get. Last note: let's hope third time's the charm for one Michael Carp. |
| 132. By: slamcactus on 07-18-2011 17:31:37 Hi Skyway, I'm not Jason, but Middlebrooks is probably gettable from the Sox with Youk in front of him and Vitek and Cecchini behind him. He won't be cheap though, and would probably cost more than any of the big-league pieces the Ms have at the moment. Personally I think his trade value is higher than his actual value. He's a guy with tantalizing tools, but he's a bit of a hack and he doesn't walk enough for my liking. If we're dealing with the Red Sox I'd much rather go after Ryan Kalish if/when he comes back healthy. |
| 133. By: Ianyo on 07-21-2011 11:26:38 Seager down, Lueke up. Figgins playing LF. Does this smell like a trade of League/Wright and Figgins brewing to you guys, also? |
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