Prospect Insider - Four days

Four days

By Jason A. Churchill

By 02-09-2011

There are four days between now and the day pitchers and catchers report for spring training on February 13 -- the rest of the squad will report no later than February 18 with the first full-squad workout slated for the day after.

The M's first spring game is the annual charity game versus the San Diego on the 27th with their first Cactus League matchup the following day against the same Padres.
Minor leaguers won't report until the second week of March, though these dates are more of a deadline than the day most players show up for camp.

In any case, we'll be here daily to round up the thoughts and ideas as the club heads closer to the 2011 season; lending you all anything you might need to get yourself ready.

More on the lineup
Many of you have suggested over the years that the M's bat Ichiro third in the lineup so his hits can drive in more runs. While I see the logic, sort of, I have never understood the war cry. Here's why.

Ichiro is a pure singles hitter.

Last season, which is very similar in so many ways to Ichiro's typical season in terms of situations, opportunities and rate stats, 82 percent of Ichiro's hits were singles, and only 70 percent of those singles left the infield. On 53 occasions that Ichiro got a hit in 2010, a runner from second base would not have scored, leaving it up to another hitter to drive in the run.

Ichiro strolled to the plate last season with a man on second or third base on 86 occasions. The No. 7-9 hitters in front of Ichiro reached base at a .274 clip. If we figure Figgins' OBP at .350 for 2011, and the No. 2 hitter a generous .320, Ichiro would likely step to the plate with a runner on second or third base 134 times. If he hits for about the same average in those situations, .306 last season, he'd drive in the run 40-42 times -- unless you figured in the infield single portion of it, which lowers that total to 28-30.

Ichiro's value to the Mariners offensively is very much centered on him getting on base, stealing bases, going from first to third on singles, scoring easily from second on any hit to the outfield and from first on extra-base hits.

If he's hitting in the middle of the order, how often will it make sense for him to run with a Jack Cust, Justin Smoak or Milton Bradley hitting behind him? Significantly less, that is for sure.

The Seattle Mariners are better off hitting Ichiro and Figgins at the top and getting the extra-base hit from one of the next two or three hitters.

I think if Ackley were in his prime, a 1-2-3 of Ichiro, Figgins and Ackley would work, with Ichiro hitting third, even, because it eliminates the likely out in between Figgins and Ichiro and thus the reduces the pressure put on the stolen base.

Larry Stone at the Tines, has his own take.

Scouts on the M's
I spent a big portion of my Tuesday talking to scouts about players and Doug Fister's name came up quite a bit. I'm not much of a believer that he's anything but a No. 5 in an above-average rotation, and I feel the same way about Jason Vargas and his No. 4 status.

"When they are ready to win the division in a few years, one of those two won't be a part of that rotation," one NL scout said. "I guess unless the first three are all No. 1 starters. I like Vargas, and Fister should add velocity with the right adjustments, but I don't see a quality second pitch from him like Vargas."

Yeah, Vargas has an above-average changeup and might be the perfect No. 5 starter. How good is that change?

"It's pretty good, sometimes it's one of the better changeups in the American League," the scout continued. "If he had an average slider or better, his fringy fastball wouldn't be an issue, and he'd be a 3."

Another scout was curious about Franklin Gutierrez and one of the more interesting quotes is as follows: "He should be better than he is up there. I think he's a little too spread out at the feet which limits his plate coverage, or I think we'd see more balls to right and right-center and he'd probably hit for more pull power."

His hands are also stiff, which probably contributes to the above problems, and also the 137 strikeouts.

Is there still time for the soon-to-be 28-year-old to take better advantage of his pitch recognition skills and strike zone judgment?

Yeah, player are always getting better, and as long as Gutierrez is putting in the work, there's a chance something starts to work for him and his numbers take a significant leap.

Mariners Mondays
FSN started up their Mariners Mondays broadcasts earlier this week with, what else, a game-winning infield single by Ichiro against Minnesota on June 2.

The next seven Mondays, which leads right into the regular season opener, are as follows:

Feb. 14 -- Cliff Lee's CG/SHO win over the Cubs at the Safe on June 23.

Feb. 21 -- Jason Vargas and David Aardsma pitch the M's to a 2-1 at St. Louis on June 16.

Feb. 28 -- Felix Hernandez's 4-1 win over the Yankees at the Safe in July.

March 7 -- The M's comeback win over Boston on July 25.

March 14 -- Matt Tuiasosopo and Luke French lead the M's over the Orioles in August.

March 21 -- Seattle finds a way to score almost three percent of their season's run total in one outing versus the Padres in May.

March 28 -- King Felix's gem at Yankee Stadium in August. This was the game when Hernandez was systematically anointed the majority owner of the Bronx Bombers.

four-days

Comments
The following 15 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: mcgoorty003 on 02-09-2011 09:21:49
If I remember correctly, it was not a shutout for Cliff Lee against the Cubs I think he gave up a solo home run early in the game. Also it was his last home Safeco Field start. I saved my ticket.

2. By: Rickyb on 02-09-2011 13:25:26
I never made it to the Old Yankee Stadium, but took trip and saw Fenway, the New Yankee Stadium and Nationals Park last summer. We planned it to see the M's in Yankee Stadium and were thrilled to get a Felix Day. He was totally dominant that day and it was a lot of fun to sit in the bleachers and have the Yankee fans completely uninterested in the game because they realized they had no shot that day. Saunders went deep twice and had a great leaping catch if I remember right. Hopefully there is more of that to come.

3. By: FWBrodie on 02-09-2011 15:54:10
It's almost here!

4. By: Scruggers on 02-09-2011 16:49:31
Not that I think the M's should move him out of the leadoff spot, but if Ichiro were to move in the lineup I think the two hole would be more appropriate than him hitting third. I don't want to see him give himself up to move a man over, but most of his game is contact and speed like Figgins can get over to second with much of what Ichiro does to get on base. Figgins has been a very nice leadoff hitter in the past, he fits the prototype better than Ichiro, and he didn't look at all comfortable hitting second last year.

5. By: Edman on 02-09-2011 17:24:18
#4, I couldn't disagree more. Ichiro is a groundball hitter. Batting him second will likely force him to hit into more double plays. He's where he needs to be to utilized his style of play.

Ichiro should not be moved because Figgins doesn't like to bat second. So what? When he signed with Seattle, you don't think he knew he wasn't going to hit leadoff? I also disagree that Figgins fits the profile of a leadoff hitter, more than does Ichiro. That's not at all true, IMHO.

What makes Figgins better than Ichiro? While Figgens has, in your own words, been a nice leadoff hitter. Ichiro has been a great one and fits more to the conception of a leadoff hitter.

There's no particular stategic advantage to moving either of them out of the 1-2 spots. Figgens had a rough year, and nothing more. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-09-2011 17:40:48
Who is this "Figgens" you speak of, Edman?

Just busting chops.

Ichiro's career OBP is also 17 points higher than Figgins', so any general argument against Ichiro 1, Figgins 2 has to start with that.

7. By: greenisyoda on 02-09-2011 18:46:49
"53 occasions that Ichiro got a hit in 2010, a runner from second base would not have scored, leaving it up to another hitter to drive in the run."

I guess I have to ask how many of these 53 hits didn't leave the infield and, with a runner on base, how many of these ABs turn into a fielder's choice with the lead runner being thrown out thereby robbing Ichiro of a hit?

Ichiro is a table setter and I think Wedge is right when he says there are enough holes in the line-up without trying this experiment all over again. Small sample size or no, the man isn't as comfortable in the 3-hole so hit him lead-off.

If you're going to build anything you've got to have a solid foundation. Can we please use Ichiro as that foundation and build from there because nobody (let me repeat that, NOBODY) else on this roster has been sufficiently consistent enough at the plate to build around.

8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-09-2011 18:51:36
greenisyoda,

All 53 were infield hits. That was the point on that. Fielder's choices? I didn't do that math. Not a ton, as through July, I only counted four.

9. By: Edman on 02-09-2011 20:07:40
Okay, I stand corrected. I'm operating on fumes at the moment. Too bad he's not Chief Clancy Wiggins. Imagine the Simpsons promo nights they could have.

10. By: Edman on 02-09-2011 20:09:42
Sheesh, Chief Wiggums, even. That's it, I'm going home and get some sleep.

11. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-09-2011 20:19:21
Ha!

Dope.

12. By: Scruggers on 02-10-2011 14:31:50
Edman

I never said I think the M's should swap Ichiro and Figgins... started with "Not that I think the M's should move him out of the leadoff spot." But no one ever talks about any other spot besides three. I like Ichiro as a 2. Puts the ball in play. Never strikes out. And I think those infield hits move a speedy runner over while he ends up on first. Downside - you don't want him giving himself up to move someone over. I also like Figgins as a leadoff hitter - walks, good on base, sees a lot of pitches, good historical OBP, comfy there.

But to be clear, I think Ichiro is a better leadoff hitter and shouldn't be moved.

13. By: Scruggers on 02-10-2011 14:32:50
Good point about the ground balls. Plenty of rockets to infielders leading to DP's

14. By: StandinPat on 02-10-2011 16:15:00
"Batting him second will likely force him to hit into more double plays"

"Good point about the ground balls. Plenty of rockets to infielders leading to DP's"

This is so dumb. Don't bat Ichiro 2nd because of the risk of Double Plays? Seriously? Ichiro gets a ton of infield hits, meaning most folks have a hard enough time just getting him out at first on a groundball, but now all of a sudden they will be able to get an additional runner out ahead of him AND still have time to throw him out at first? How does that make any sense? Ichiro is one of the hardest players in all of baseball to double up, he hit into 3 last year and only 1 the year before, moving him the order isn't gonna change that.

Having more runners on base ahead of him will increase the chances of a double play, but the same can be said of ANY player. The only way to avoid the risk is to simply never have any runners on base, and how is that beneficial?

15. By: Scruggers on 02-11-2011 04:41:11
Oooh. Nice. I need to do more research before I give up on an argument.

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