Prospect Insider - Free Agency and Draft Pick Compensation

Free Agency and Draft Pick Compensation

By Jason A. Churchill

By 12-09-2008

As Mariners fans are greedily, yet rightfully, looking forward to the two draft picks the M's stand to collect once Raul Ibanez inks a deal with another club, there are teams we should be rooting for over others.

The New York Mets, rumored to be interested in Ibanez since last July, have signed closer Francisco Rodriguez to a three-year deal, sending their 2009 first-round draft choice to the Los Angeles Angels.

If the Mets were to follow that up by signing Ibanez, the Mariners would receive the Mets' second-round choice, rather than their first, because even though Rodriguez and Ibanez are both Type A free agents, Rodriguez's Elias ranking of 87.196 trumps that of Ibanez's 83.684, favoring the Halos when it comes to draft compensation.

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So far, the other rumored teams interested - Tampa Bay, Toronto, Chicago Cubs, Angels - have yet to sign another major free agent to affect the compensation Ibanez's departure would incur.

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Tampa is a great fit, as are the Angels and Blue Jays, since they can DH Ibanez, at least part-time. But the Cubs, who are also interested in Bobby Abreu and Milton Bradley, have the biggest need.

The Philadelphia Phillies - excuse me - the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies (Eh, CK?) are said to be interested as well, since they are currently balking at Pat Burrell's demands of a five-year contract.

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Comments
The following 7 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: stickball on 12-10-2008 01:15:05
The Mets have some left handed power hitters. Any chance that they will go after Burrell or Manny instead of Ibanez?

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-10-2008 02:03:01
I know they'd prefer a right-handed hitter to a lefty, but they will weigh defense and contract into the equation.

For NYM, I think Bradley is the best fit. He's a better defender, even after having declined in that area the past few years, and though he's a switch hitter and decent enough from the left side, he's a much stronger bat from the right side, both during 2008 and throughout his career.

And I think Bradley comes cheaper than Burrell, Dunn, Manny, and even Abreu and Ibanez, because his injury concerns may rob him in terms of length of contract.

3. By: jgstecker on 12-10-2008 08:16:01
Also add Atlanta to that list. Its not inconceivable that they sign Burnett and Ibanez. That was land us a THIRD round pick. They've got a lot of cash to throw around.

The Phillies, Cubs, and Rays are the safe choices for Raul. I think TB is the best fit personally, The Cubs would be better off with Abreu and the Phils have enough lefty bats already. Raul would probably take less to play close to home on a WS team like TB, but the Rays may opt not to sacrifice their pick.

The Dodgers and Angels could get involved later on if they lose out on Teix and Manny, and those would be safe destinations most likely. Raul would fit well in the Angels lineup.

Speaking of the Angels and the 2009 draft, they're in line to get SIX of the top 50 picks next year if Teix walks and they don't cough up their own first rounder. Sort of steals our thunder a little.

4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-10-2008 11:33:56
The Dodgers are apparently not very high on Ibanez's wish list, so I'm not sure the Halos would be either.

The Rays and Phillies make the most sense.

The problem with the Angels having six of the top 50 picks is that Eddie Bane sucks as a scouting director. They've done very little in the draft the past few years, and others in the game think it's about Bane's ego.

5. By: masonb on 12-10-2008 13:57:35
Jason,

I am a long time admirer of your site, but this is my first time posting.

I am all for the new management making objective, cost-efficient player personnel decisions, but I am just wondering if there's any chance the Mariners swoop in last minute and make a competing offer for Teixeira? Sure he would cost a ton, but in my opinion, a seven or eight year deal taking him through his prime years would be a good investment. If you look at his stats, he has consistently posted a .900 plus OPS, and save for the 2007 season when he played in 132 games, he has been in the lineup nearly every game. I think if you find a better #2 hitter and plug him in between Ichiro and Tex, the lineup would score a ton of runs. However, he would need some protection, which is why I (and I might be the only guy here who thinks so) think Ibanez should be resigned or Bradley or Abreu be brought in.

Also, (and I know you might not be at liberty to say) do you think that there is any chance the Mariners make a run at Sheets?
I know that he is an injury risk, but on a two year deal, I think he would be worth it, and would help bridge the gap between now and when Aumont, Ramirez, Pineda and co. are ready to contribute.

And finally, would it be a good idea and/or feasible to suggest that Seattle try to make a trade with the Dodgers swapping Silva for Andruw Jones?

From what I have found online Silva is owed 34 million through 2011, with a 2 million dollar buyout in 2012. So more or less 36 million. Jones is owed 22.1 million this year, but his deal ends after the season. I think last year was an aberration for Silva who I think had some bad luck with the defense behind him. I doubt he continues to regress, and if Z decided to perhaps split the difference in the money owed to Silva and Jones, we could have more payroll flexibility going into next years free agency when the likes of Harden and Lackey are available.

6. By: Slack on 12-10-2008 19:49:25
If Ibanez signs with the Mets, would the Ms get a sandwich round pick as well as the Mets second round pick?

7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-10-2008 20:41:33
The sandwich pick is automatic, yes.

jgstecker makes a good point, though. If the Braves ink Ibanez, the M's could get a third rounder and a comp round pick.

Blech.

Re: Silva's contract

He's also owed a few million of the $5 million signing bonus he was given a year ago, too.

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