| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 11-14-2010 |
Only a spare few free agents have signed -- Ted Lilly, Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Inge, while Japanese import Hisashi Iwakuma's rights are owned by the Oakland Athletics. But it's about that time to take an educated guess on where the top free agents may land this winter, so Chris Crawford, Rick Randall -- our newest addition to the Prospect Insider staff -- joined me in taking our best shot.
For reference purposes we used Keith Law's Top 50 as a guide to which players we'd predict out, and this is what we came up with this year.
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free-agent-predictions
Comments
The following 57 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: shemberry on 11-14-2010 21:54:44 Jason, The only free agent you predict the M's will get is Matsui. Do you like that idea? Is he the only free agent you predict because A. the M's won't have enough interest in others, B. won't have enough money, or C. won't have their interest reciprocated? How much turnover do you see this offseason? |
| 2. By: JohnMcD on 11-14-2010 22:17:47 I think Chris is going to get the Jeter one right! |
| 3. By: 200tang on 11-14-2010 22:19:01 I see Chris Crawford and I are both on the same page and likely talking to the same sources as we both have Jeter going to the Nippon-Ham Fighters. |
| 4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-14-2010 22:23:07 Chris actually predicted either Nippon or ... I think the Pirates for both Jeter and Rivera. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-14-2010 22:27:59 Shemberry, I think there aren't a lot of matches out there for Seattle on the open market. Not that they can't or won't, but as we sit here right now, I don't see fits for most of the pitchers, and the bats that make sense are all Matsui-ish, including Berkman. I think there will be trades, plural, however, and I would not be surprised to see one halfway surprising free agent be chased by Jack this winter. But none of the top 5. |
| 6. By: randallball on 11-14-2010 22:47:42 This is only the top 50ish FA, also. I could see the M's going after a backup C, and perhaps an OF from the MLB free agent crop. But, as Jason says, I expect a few trades...and even one can drastically change the roster landscape. |
| 7. By: studentofthegame on 11-14-2010 23:46:06 Beltre hates the Safe. Are you smoking crack? |
| 8. By: 200tang on 11-15-2010 00:16:10 WALL OF TEXT WALL OF TEXT WALL OF TEXT. Seriously though, I hope you realize the difference between Branyan & Matsui outside of just age. For the record, I do think Matsui gets significantly less this year than he did last since there aren't going to be many DH spots open. Also, Branyan can't play LF & RF...nor do I think it's even a big deal... - Beltre is extremely unlikely to come back. Victor Martinez is a CINO and if you didn't, you should listen to Jason's latest podcast for good reasoning why VMart would likely fail in Safeco. - As for Infante, he had a decent year in 2010 and 2009, but both are pretty small sample sizes, were in the NL and both seasons look a bit inflated by his higher than average (both MLB & career) BABIP. Not to mention that Infante is going to be needed to play SS a lot with Jack Wilson as the only other shortstop and I don't think Infante is all that great. Throw in the cost to acquire him from ATL and I see no reason why the Mariners should even be calling about him. |
| 9. By: marinermutt on 11-15-2010 00:32:39 "I'm going to assume that Zduriencik is smarter than say Bill Bavasi and that last year he may have finished with a payroll of $91.143MM, but that doesn't mean he couldn't have spent $105MM." That is a pretty big assumption. Any facts to back that up? I think it is going to be a pretty slow years for the M's regarding FA. Maybe a vetern LH reliever and possibly a Branyan or Matsui. Both will only get 1 year deals in my view. A backup catcher could also come into play. |
| 10. By: Chris Crawford on 11-15-2010 00:57:42 When Derek Jeter ends up a Ham Fighter, you guys are going to be jeaaaaaaaaaaaaaalous. |
| 11. By: KingFelix on 11-15-2010 09:51:53 Rosterbatorextraordinaire I just do not see us spending that type of money this offseason. I think we will land a bat for DH, maybe Branyan for around 2.5M for 2011 along with a SS type for a small contract, but that would be it as far as FA moves go. I could see making a few trades but this is more of a rebuild year to let the young players develop and see what we have going into 2012 along with getting the rest of the bad contracts off the payroll. I see us being players in 2012 in FA along with hopefully having another solid draft in 2011 along with being draft protected in the first round of the 2012 draft when we sign some 2012 free agents. I trust that Jack will rebuild this team but it takes time and I like what I have seen so far in his eye for talent. |
| 12. By: CrustyJuggler on 11-15-2010 10:11:09 I wonder if Jack would truly consider Matsui an option if Branyan was on the board. I can totally see him using Matsui as leverage to force Branyan's decision early on but, personally, I would much rather see Russell back in the DH/1B role in 2011. He's just a better fit for this team in my view. |
| 13. By: jazon_24 on 11-15-2010 10:59:54 Just throwing this out there... - Trade Aardsma to TB for Dan Johnson to be backup 1B/DH. - Trade Greg Halman to MIN for JJ Hardy (on assumption that he would be DFA'd anyways) to be SS. - Trade Jose Lopez to anybody for anything (otherwise he will be DFA'd) - Trade Jack Wilson and cash (up to $4M) to anybody for Low A player or a LH relief pitcher - Trade Milton Bradley and cash (up to $11M) to anybody for a minor leaguer or a LH relief pitcher - Sign Austin Kearns or Pat Burrell (or similar RH outfielder) to be the 4th outfielder and DH. Will platoon with Dan Johnson. - Sign Ryan Theriot, Nick Punto, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, or similar player to be the UT and to start at 2B until Dustin Ackley is ready - Sign Gregg Zaun, Bengie Molina, or similar player to be the backup C. - Re-sign Erik Bedard for $1M plus incentives (similar contract to last year). - Sign LH reliever to $1M or less (1 idea includes Mark Hendrickson) unless acquired in J Wilson, M Bradley trades. - Depending upon remaining budget, sign another starting pitcher. Depending upon the ability of GMZ to trade Bradley and Jack Wilson for salary relief, I think that this roster would come in close to the budget ($90-$95M). Other benefits include: ability to pinch hit occassionally due to presence of 2 opposite-handed DH's who can also field different positions; an additional outfielder who can take over for Saunders if he completely fails, ability to give adequate playing time to the kids (Smoak, Ackley, Saunders, and Moore). |
| 14. By: MoneyMike on 11-15-2010 12:25:07 How in the Hell is that "long story short'? |
| 15. By: obeltran24 on 11-15-2010 12:29:34 Rosterbator.... You are Bill Bavasi. Do you know the facts on Safeco's mortgage or are you assuming this too? |
| 16. By: harrison on 11-15-2010 12:43:51 @16. I don't what the chances are of the Mariners trading for Greinke and still have Ackley on the team. It's speculated that the Rangers would have to give up both Martin Perez and Tanner Scheppers two of the better prospects within the organization. Assuming you would be willing to part with Pineda (which is crazy) you would also need to surrender another primer prospect. The only other premier prospects within the Mariners organization at this time is Dustin Ackley or Nick Franklin. You could make some cases for other players in the lower-mid minors. But right now they are it. I would think they would be hard pressed to get Ackley and that would just be a cumbersome (bedardish) trade at this time for the organization. Also when doing your evaluations of a players value. Don't forget to forecast. While Bay was really good there was some the concern that his skill set would decline. I think that's still a relevant concern for Mets "nation" being they are paying 16 million over the next 3 (and maybe a fourth should the option vest). I thought passing on him was a good move. Regardless of what how he performed. Saunders, yes didn't play up either, but had we signed Bay and he performed how he did in New York we would have wasted 66 million dollars in my opinion because 2 WAR players who play left field are not hard to come by. The organization sticks with Saunders, in my opinion, because he shows abilities to be more than just that. I understand where you are coming from and I don't know how Jack Zduriencik views Jason Bay or Zack Grienke. I only know how I view the players and I would agree both are good. I feel that to commit to either of them last off-season or this off-season would hurt set the organization back. Just my opinion. |
| 17. By: Edman on 11-15-2010 12:45:34 rostorbator......get to the point in as few words as possible. If you want people to not gloss over what you write, make it short and get to the point. If not, create your own blog and write until your heart is all warm and fuzzy.....then provide a link. I haven't read any of your posts lately, because quite frankly, I don't have enough time. Some of us pop in on breaks at work and don't have the time to dedicate to your online novels. You don't get more credit because you can outwrite the next guy. |
| 18. By: acqb1424 on 11-15-2010 12:49:47 Agreed Edman!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm in the same boat. |
| 19. By: maqman on 11-15-2010 13:24:18 Amen Edman. |
| 20. By: Mackie on 11-15-2010 13:45:57 The primary need will obviously be hitting, but I could see the M’s maybe checking into getting a SP. After Felix and Vargas, and maybe Fister, nothing is for certain with the rotation. We like to think Pineda will be ready to contribute, and he might be. But adding a veteran SP who can eat some innings (and maybe keep the team in ballgames) might not be a bad idea at all. The question of course is, is there any FA SP out there who would be worth such a gamble? Javier Vazquez flat-out stunk last season, and he would probably be expensive. Westbrook and Pavano would also be expensive. How much did Jorge De La Rosa make last year, and how much might he cost? Would he be worth signing? I’m guessing they would be looking at signing someone to DH, and that the names we will hear most will be Berkman, Matsui, Thome and Branyan. I don’t see them trying to improve the hitting at SS or adding a veteran C through free agency. If the team decides those are positions from which they could stand some more offense, it seems like this might be where we would see trades. And with C, maybe they wait and make changes during the season if Moore isn't working out. Anyway, the FA list is just not that inspiring. Same for SPs… maybe there will be a trade for a SP too. It will be fun to see what happens. What is it now, about 90 days until pitchers and catchers report? 8-) |
| 21. By: Rick Randall on 11-15-2010 14:00:52 Mackie points out the 4 most likely DH names above, and from that list I think it is easy to explain why Matsui makes the most since: Look at what those players will want. Berkman and Thome are going to want the chance to win, first and foremost. Tail end of their career, no WS titles. Branyan is probably going to try and get the exact same thing he wanted to get last year - a multi-year deal. And I assume he still wants to play 1B. And he won't get either. And he'll be in the same situation as he was last year, signing late for a lesser deal. And the M's need to be wary of the health situation with him, too. Matsui has already won and likely sees the value in coming to a club like Seattle with a chance to play more or less everyday. And although he and Ichiro weren't best friends in Japan, the organization's history with Japanese players is very friendly to a guy like Matsui. |
| 22. By: short on 11-15-2010 14:05:30 With Crawford possibly going to the Angels, I really wish the M's would get in on that. Yes, this would mean giving up on Michael Saunders. Let him go back to Tacoma, put up some ridiculous numbers and trade him. Even in the best case scenario for Saunders, he doesn't bring what Crawford will over the life of the contract he'd get. The M's need a player of Crawford's caliber, and he would be awesome in Safeco field as a lefty who plays great defense. Another option would be to let Crawford play center and move Guttierez into left or trade him. I'm going to have a really hard time watching the Angels and Rangers sign guys like Lee, Crawford and Beltre while we add teetering veterans like Matsui. |
| 23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-15-2010 14:27:28 Branyan also changed agents last week and it's not because he's about to become cheaper for Seattle. Plus, you can point to WAR all day long, but the metric lacks all reliability when it comes to future projection and injuries. In a vacuum, Matsui>Branyan. Just because Branyan might be cheaper -- and he probably will be -- doesn't mean he's BETTER. Who knows when the day will come that he simply can't play AT ALL anymore because of the back. Could be now, 2011 or never. But why not check in on some guys that don't have that history and pay a little bit more for them? Nobody is saying Matsui is the end-all -- I'd prefer 10 other DH options before Matsui, I think he's meh, at best. But considering the cost involved, he makes the most sense, which is why I projected such a connection with the Mariners. Some don't think Matsui will ever want to play with another Japanese position player, however. So we'll see. |
| 24. By: Blowgun7 on 11-15-2010 16:07:39 Rosterbator.. you are making this blog unreadable with the length of your posts, and the content of them.. shorten your crap up |
| 25. By: shortstop9 on 11-15-2010 16:09:17 We need to stay young and athletic and compete at the same time.Trade Aardsma,Saunders,Franklin,Robles for Rasmus-trade a couple players for JJ Hardy/J. Lowrie type SS.Sign DH like Berkman,a 2B/SS for 1 year F.Lopez and a veteran catcher.If Rasmus cost to much another nice trade would be for R. Ludwick. Great D and versitle bench 1.Ichiro RF 2.Figgy 3B Tui 3.Rasmus LF 4.Berkman DH 5.Smoak 1B 6.Guttierez CF Halman 7.Hardy SS Wilson 8.Laird ? C Moore 9.F.Lopez 2B Ackley |
| 26. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-15-2010 16:45:48 roster is now on watch. Any further "long" posts will be deleted in their entirety. |
| 27. By: Chris Crawford on 11-15-2010 16:46:06 I'd love to be able to answer any questions in this forum but I need to finish Rosterbator's dissertation first. Come on guys, don't make me edit. |
| 28. By: masonb on 11-15-2010 16:56:22 Here's an idea that nobody has mentioned and more than likely won't be realistic but I'll throw it out there anyways....Could Dan Uggla be the guy brought in to keep the seat warm at second for Ackley and then moved into the DH role once he is brought up. I know that Jason mentioned in the podcast that there is a real possibility that Ackley is the opening day starter but Uggla could still in that scenario spell Ackley at second, Figgins at third and Smoak at first while providing a decent middle of the order hitter. He's a free agent at the end of the year and if he plays well Jack could just flip him for prospects at the deadline. If he stays and then leaves via free agency, he's a good bet to be Type A status. I've read that the Marlins are not necessarily looking for grade A prospects in return so maybe it would be a risk worth taking. I know he's RH but you can't have a lineup completely filled with lefties and I'd imagine he's somewhat affordable for this year. I know the Marlins are said to be interested in catching. Perhaps something centered around Moore? |
| 29. By: Mackie on 11-15-2010 17:14:35 Please correct me if I'm wrong, but according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, it looks like the Marlins avoided arbitration with Uggla in January by signing him to a one-year $7.8M deal. What is his current contract situation? The guy K's a lot but his OBP is better than most of the current Mariners (averaged 82 BB per season the last three years). The SLG is usually fairly high (from .459 to .514 in the last five years, .488 for his career), and the career OPS is better than .800 against both lefties (.805)and righties (.846). His OPS against lefties has increased from .630 in 08 to .752 in 09 to .983 last year. He has averaged 31 HR and 93 RBI per season in five years with the Marlins. So, as a right-handed hitter, what would he be likely to do at Safeco? Uggla has never played another position in the majors besides 2B. With Ackley coming up, it would appear he would be blocking Ackley unless they got Uggla with the intent of moving him to DH fairly soon. Still, a bat like that in the middle of the order might be very nice to have. And I suppose yes, he could be flipped at the trade deadline if things weren't going well for the team and it looked like he might bring in better prospects than those the M's would have given to Florida for him. Would he be worth trading for, if the cost wasn't too high? And what would it take to get him? |
| 30. By: slamcactus on 11-15-2010 17:48:18 Dan Uggla has a lot more value to other teams as an everyday position player (likely at 3B) than he does to the Ms as a stopgap at 2B and a long-term DH. Other teams will offer more for him than the Ms will, and he's a FA after this year anyway. The team needs to find guys who can contribute beyond next year, whether they're "rebuilding" or "retooling." |
| 31. By: masonb on 11-15-2010 18:15:30 But that's the idea. He will contribute after this year either directly through staying here(unlikely) or through the comp picks or trade return he would fetch, basically Cliff Lee part II |
| 32. By: Jon O on 11-15-2010 18:23:01 Don't want to get completly ripped on my trade thoughts, but what about these scenerios for the M's. If don't agree, what would need to be changed. 1) Brandon League traded to Jed Lowrie 2) Greg Halman & Lueke for Alex Gordon 3)Doug Fister & Jack Wilson (M's cover 1.5M of 5M) for Pablo Sandoval 4) Ardsma, Saunders, A. Gordon (after acquiring him) and M. Robles to STL for Rasmus. 5) M's sign verteran SP (Harang - west coast guy for couple million, Variteck or some veteran catcher to help mentor Moore)and veteran closer (Sherrill if Dodgers let him become available to mentor Cortes). 1. Ichiro RF 2. Figgins 3B 3. Rasmus LF 4. Sandoval DH 5. Smoak 1B 6. Guti CF 7. Lowrie SS 8. Moore C 9. Ackley 2b SP1 Felix SP2 Vargas SP3 Harang SP4 French SP5 Pineda |
| 33. By: slamcactus on 11-15-2010 18:37:09 "But that's the idea. He will contribute after this year either directly through staying here(unlikely) or through the comp picks or trade return he would fetch, basically Cliff Lee part II" If he stays here, he stays at or near market value. This isn't a team that will be seriously looking to spend 8 figures per year on a 32-year-old FA next offseason. As far as compensation picks goes, the Cliff Lee trade was great, but lightning won't strike twice. There's very little chance that two compensation picks in the '12 draft will be as good as the prospects it'd take to get Uggla, and they'd be nowhere near as close to the majors. Dan Uggla has value, both in trade and as a FA. He just has less value to the Ms than to other teams, so other teams will offer more. It's not a move that makes sense for the Ms. |
| 34. By: slamcactus on 11-15-2010 18:40:29 " 1) Brandon League traded to Jed Lowrie 2) Greg Halman & Lueke for Alex Gordon 3)Doug Fister & Jack Wilson (M's cover 1.5M of 5M) for Pablo Sandoval 4) Ardsma, Saunders, A. Gordon (after acquiring him) and M. Robles to STL for Rasmus. 5) M's sign verteran SP (Harang - west coast guy for couple million, Variteck or some veteran catcher to help mentor Moore)and veteran closer (Sherrill if Dodgers let him become available to mentor Cortes)." The thing that would need to be changed is that in each deal, you need to take out the players the Ms would be sending, and replace them with better players. Not a single deal there is remotely realistic. Especially not the Rasmus deal. Or the Gordon deal. Or...well, yeah, none of them are remotely possible. The Mariners' 2nd-tier prospects and young guys aren't as valuable as people here seem to think they are. |
| 35. By: Edman on 11-15-2010 18:45:40 #35, you'd be giving up way more for Rasmus than he's worth. In essence, you're saying trade Lueke, Halman, Aardsma, Saunders and Robles for Cody Rasmus? Saunders, Aardsma and Saunders by themselves would still be overpaying. I like the idea of putting Lueke in a deal for Gordon. I think Gordon is a value if you don't have to overpay to get him. But, the Royals aren't going to give him away. And Halman and Lueke isn't going to make that deal happen. |
| 36. By: Edman on 11-15-2010 18:47:49 Oops....Saunders, Aardsma and Robles. I just don't think Rasmus is a sure thing and not worth overpaying to get. |
| 37. By: Blowgun7 on 11-15-2010 19:06:04 You wouldn't sniff Rasmus for that package.. As I've said before, if you want to get good young ML talent, with multiple yrs of club control.. you need to start putting in players like Pineda, Franklin, Ackley... maybe Gutierrez.. Nobody else in this organization (Im not including Felix and Smoak) is attractive enough to other teams.. You can't just put together a bunch of C+ to B- prospects and expect to get a player like Rasmus.. |
| 38. By: Mackie on 11-15-2010 19:30:05 @36, good point about Uggla's relative value. @35, Lowrie is about the only one of those guys I would really be excited about getting. And maybe Harang to help anchor the rotation, but he might be pretty expensive. I find myself less intrigued by Sandoval, Rasmus and Gordon, but I don't know a whole lot about stuff below the surface in this kind of thing, which is why I like to hang out here and ask questions. Maybe those guys might make good trade targets. If Boston was indeed interested in trading Lowrie, what would it require to get him? Sure seems to me he would be a decent upgrade at SS until Franklin is ready. I agree with Edman about Gordon possibly being a value if the M's didn't have to overpay. He hasn't hit very well the last couple of years, but he is only 26. Getting someone they could plug in at 3B if Ackley isn't quite ready yet (Figgins could continue at 2B until Ackley was ready) or who they could use some in LF (should Saunders falter) seems like a sound idea. I wouldn't want to give up too much for Gordon though, given his injury history. He has been on the DL a total of 114 days the last two seasons, with problems related to his thighs and hips. I think there was also a broken thumb last year. If there was some assurance the guy was through with getting injured for a while, I'd say go for it, if KC wasn't asking for the moon. 8-) Re. Lueke, what do you think will happen there? Would it affect the overall scheme of things all that much if the team kept him and gave him a chance to help them win some ballgames next season, maybe redeem himself a bit in the public eye by doing well on the field? |
| 39. By: slamcactus on 11-15-2010 20:37:52 "#35, you'd be giving up way more for Rasmus than he's worth. In essence, you're saying trade Lueke, Halman, Aardsma, Saunders and Robles for Cody Rasmus? Saunders, Aardsma and Saunders by themselves would still be overpaying." No it wouldn't. That's a ridiculous underpay, and Mozeliak would laugh Z off the phone if he suggested it. Again, the Mariners' mediocre young players don't have as much trade value around the league as people here think they do. Of that entire list, only Saunders has a decent amount of trade value, and Saunders is nowhere near Rasmus's level. Aardsma's got some value, but he's significantly less valuable than Rasmus on the field, and will cost more than 10x more next year (~5 million v. league minimum). 24-year-old plus defensive CFs with 25-30hr power who make the league minimum don't get traded for relievers and fringe prospects. |
| 40. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-15-2010 20:44:44 BTW, in reply to rosterbator saying Beltre and Felix are like brothers. No, they aren't. They were friends, but they aren't especially close, never were. They aren't fellow countrymen, either. Felix's best friends in the org are Cesar Jimenez, Jose Lopez and Franklin Gutierrez. Just a coincidence that they are all Venezuelan, but that's the way it is. |
| 41. By: Rudolf on 11-15-2010 22:08:40 Halman, Saunders, Aardsma, Lueke and Robles for Rasmus may be an underpay, but it doesn't feel like one to me. None of our mentioned guys are joke prospects, and Aardsma is legit in the late innings. Sure, we'd be getting the guy with the highest probability to match his upside. But Halman can match his upside, (albeit w/ much lower probability). Saunders has decent upside, too. Aardsma is a proven closer. Lueke a potential closer. Robles has mid-rotation starter upside and isn't far away. Fans of BA's top 100 prospect lists might not be enamored with the Cardinal's end of the deal, or anyone but Edman, myself and a few others, but there's a lot of MLB potential in that package. A year from now we could be laughing at the thought of coughing up that much for the malcontented Colby Rasmus. |
| 42. By: marinermutt on 11-16-2010 00:16:09 Can we stop on the Rasmus talk. The Cards are not going to be trading them. Any issues Tony L. had with Rasmus will be worked out. Rasmus is much to valuable to trade at such a young age. It just won't happen. Jason, what type of trade value does Guti have. Not sure I want to trade him, but just wondering what type of player one could expect back for him. His contract is team friendly which should increase his value. Thanks, |
| 43. By: Jon O on 11-16-2010 00:39:47 First of all I'm a long time reader (daily) to this site, but was always hesitant to post because I feel that the people aren't always allowed to post their thoughts without being slammed. Like all of us on here (I hope), we all want to see the M's become a legit contending team and I think we can all agree that the best way to this is building a solid foundation through scouting and trades(not over pay for every FA like Bavasi did). That being said, we all know that every organization values their prospects more than others. I suggested some possible trades that I think would be reasonable for both sides (do not have any inside info) based on talent and team needs. Let me explain each move (from my perspective). 1) Brandon League traded to Jed Lowrie: - M's won't move League, unless they get something of value. As good as Chavez has been, League was the key to the Morrow deal (fans that don't follow scouting critcize the Morrow trade enough as is, that I think you would want to get a starter in return for League). For the BoSox, he would be the best 7th inning releaver in the game if they choose to hang onto Papelbon and Bard. - Lowrie is most likely nothing, but a back-up to them and by trading for bullpen help (power arm) this allows them to focucs on re-signing Beltre and potentially Werth. 2) Greg Halman & Lueke for Alex Gordon - Greg Halman has enourmas talent, but as we all know on this site, is a maddening prospect for his inability to consistently make contact and take walks. The Royals have seemed to be tantalized with our high upside players (Yuni) and may have holes in their outfield assuming Mous. stays at 3rd (and they sign Francour). - Lueke as has been discussed to death will most likely never stepping foot in Safeco with an M's uniform on and I think it makes the most sense to move him (buys Jack Z more time and puts him in better graces with F/O) to a team that eventually will not be able to afford Soria. He can slide in as the set-up man before they deside it is time to move Soria. - Gordon would look good in an M's uniform. Not easy to move a former top 5 pick (Clement and Morrow), but the best thing for him may be a change of scenery and that left-handed bat, if not moved for Rasmus in another deal, could look awfully nice with a change of scenery to Safeco field 3)Doug Fister & Jack Wilson (M's cover 1.5M of 5M) for Pablo Sandoval - Jack Wilson is not a super deseriable player, but they may lose both Renteria and Uribe and if they ask, hopefully Freddy Sachez would give a nice endorsment. Would help their middle infield and let them focus on spending money on the corners (infield and outfield). - I have a feeling that now that Bumgardner has arrived, they will be more willing to move Jonathan Sanchez for a bat, hence leaving them with Tim boy wonder, Cain, Bumgardner, Zito and ..... Fister (cheap, innings eating pitcher for a player who has fallen out of favor in SF. - If Brian Sabean really wants to move Sandoval, he may not want to tell others about sending him down to start next year in the minors. Granted it is most likely a motivational tool, but I know Jason has mentioned that Sanoval statistically had a lucky year two years ago, but to me he still is young, switch hitter, with potential - who even with a poor season, still put up stats better than almost any M's this past season. He could use a change of scenery and a chance with a bounce back season - and would right away become a fan favorite and marketable player for the organization (we know how much the M's care about selling seats). 4) Ardsma, Saunders, A. Gordon (after acquiring him) and M. Robles to STL for Rasmus. - Ah yes, the trade that gets most criticized. It seems to be about 50/50 so far to whether this would be even reasonable or not. -Aardsma - can fill-in for Franklin as the closer or be a set-up man to Motte. Proven and for a reasonalbe salary. - Saunders - does not have the power or upside as Rasmus, but is a good kid (same age as Rasmus) who just needs a chance to play. Can cover ground in the outfield and still has potential as a very solid all-around outfielder. - Gordon - how long have the Cards been looking for left side of the infield help. Gordon (mixed on if I would want the M's to move him) is very talented and could give them (if he can stay healthy) some more pop in the line-up. Then they can then sign Tejada or Uribe to play SS and their O should be much improved. - Robles - a 21 year old 'lefty' with mid 90's heat who is already in AAA. Worst case he become the power lefty in the pen (still useful last time I checked) or he could eventually join Garcia in a heavy righthanded rotation. Lots of potential with this kid (if he can harness his control). - Rasmus - yes, this kid could become a superstar, but Albert and Tony may not have him on their Christmas card lists anymore. No GM is going to want to move him, but he has yet to reach his full potentail and if the M's send them these 4 pieces, it will help them fill holes in their lineup immediately and then they can focus on signing sir Albert. What an outfield of Rasmus, Guti and Ichiro - probably just a pipe dream, but a fine one at that. 5) M's sign verteran SP (Harang - west coast guy for couple million, Variteck or some veteran catcher to help mentor Moore)and veteran closer (Sherrill if Dodgers let him become available to mentor Cortes). - pretty self explanitory. Sorry for the long post, but I think about how to improve the M's day and night and needed to get this off my chest. If you think the trades are 'stupid, lame or unrealistic' then I ask ... what would you suggest as reasonable moves for Lawrie, Gordon, Sandoval and Rasmus? |
| 44. By: rocketdawg31 on 11-16-2010 04:26:43 Rosterbator, I've said it before to you in another post, I'll say it again: Greinke isn't happening for us. Not for Ackley and Pineda, and not for the six C+ major-leaguers you overvalued before, plus a bunch of cheese snacks and Lopez. The fundamental thing about it is this: We'd have to give up too many of our assets in order to get him, and we can be trumped by several orgs in a package deal for Greinke. If we even use your list, and say OAK,TEX,SEA,CIN and MIL are the most likely destinations for Greinke in a trade- guess what? Texas for sure and Oakland probably can beat our package in terms of prospect value- and as soon as they heard what we offered was on the table, they would. I'll give it a non-zero chance of happening, but you kind of seem stuck on this idea...and considering how long Greinke is actually under club control, I don't see the overall value in going with that play. And bottom line, I'm willing to take my chances that we don't need Greinke. Not with a slew of young arms that are under club control for over half-a-decade coming up and one or two that may offer the same results I'd get from Greinke. |
| 45. By: rocketdawg31 on 11-16-2010 04:38:58 In response to Jason saying Beltre and Felix are not like brothers. Yes they are. This is not assumption it's based on two quotes I read last October in regard to Beltre potentially leaving in free agency. Felix said, "it would be hard if Adrian doesn't come back because he's like a big brother to me." I remember quotes that ran like this, too. But it can really be just put under the file of "minor hyperbole". It doesn't mean you're assuming, roster...but it could well just be an overstatement of the moment by Felix. I've got no reason to think Jason is wrong on that one. I've heard several times that Felix is closer to Jose Lopez than anyone else on the team. |
| 46. By: sexymarinersfan on 11-16-2010 06:24:20 I wouldn't put it past Jack to look at a player whose stock might be at a higher value come the trade dead line than as it is now, ala Cliff Lee. Here's why! When we acquired Lee last offseason we gave up a decent package of prospects at what looked like a pretty fairly even trade. However, come the trade deadline Cliff Lee's value was at an even higher point. GMZ got to give up certain prospects the Phillies wanted and in return got more back from his investment by being able to hand select the best value for prospects for the future of the club. I'd be willing to bet he's made a couple of calls to Milwaukee regarding Prince Fielder, or maybe even San Diego and Adrian Gonzalez. If either one of those lefty players has a monster year, which they would most likely want to in a contract year, could not only take advantage of that short porch in right field at Safeco, but bring even higher value at the trade deadline for some team in contention wanting to beef up it's lineup. I for one can't wait to see Ackley play next year! Justin will probably be up here full time. So long Lopez and Kotchman. Figgy goes back to his normal position. The infield will look very different next year. Also need a utility man to play like Willie Bloomquist could, mainly for SS but also to spell 2B for Ackley. Nick Punto would be a perfect selection for that versatile role. Hold on to Aardsma until someone comes calling. The same with League. Get more prospects for them. This team needs to get younger. Other 2012 Free Agents: Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols Jason Bartlett, Carlos Beltran, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Heath Bell, and Jonathan Papelbon. Robinson Cano, Yadier Molina, Grady Sizemore, and Matt Cain. Could there be another Cliff Lee in our midst next year? |
| 47. By: slamcactus on 11-16-2010 10:23:53 "Slamcactus, we get your take on everything is negative, and that we have to trade away 5 awesome prospects to get anything of value. Again..." Excuse me for trying to be reasonable. Jason's blog shouldn't be a sounding board for completely bogus trade ideas. We're really not very far from "let's trade Saunders for Prince Fielder" territory here. These are just terrible discussions. |
| 48. By: Blowgun7 on 11-16-2010 10:56:38 Dan Haren was freakin salary dump... and AZ thought he was overpaid and overrated... How the hell does that situation apply to Greinke?? As for the other guy making the ludicrous trade proposals.. You want to get Rasmus? How about Pineda and Gutierrez? You aren't getting him for the crap that you threw together.. Did I see someone really make the comment that Halman has just as much upside as Rasmus... dear god.. I hate the offseason, because you have knuckleheads overvaluing our prospects and ruining this great blog with nonsensical trade ideas |
| 49. By: masonb on 11-16-2010 10:58:18 rosterbator, Why don't you go start your own blog? If you are going to continue to lack the ability to be somewhat objective and realistic, no one is going to take you seriously. |
| 50. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 11-16-2010 11:51:10 I think the Royals jump all over a Pineda, Saunders, Robles and Lueke package. Maybe the Mariners have to throw in a marginal player like Beavan or Halman. The one team I would say could blow us away is the Rangers if they don't sign Lee. But when it comes to potential 1-2 starters with the physical attributes to pitch 7-8 innings a start and 200 innings a year with strikeout stuff tell what prospects grade out better than Pineda. Certainly there is less than a handfull and possibly none. Now the A's could trump any deal by offering proven MLB talent to the Royals, but why would they offer up any of Cahill, Gonzalez, Braden or Anderson considering they are proven and they make nothing. Also everyone has to realize how stocked the Royals are with young position players, especially around the infield. I think a young left hand hitting CF like Saunders would be more attractive than another young infielder that is not an impact shortstop, and teams that have mlb ready impact shortstop prospects do not trade them just about ever. Honestly I believe if Grienke is available the Mariners have about 1 in 4 odds of obtaining him considering his no trade and the Mariners ability to deal Pineda. |
| 51. By: slamcactus on 11-16-2010 12:04:45 Saunders isn't a CF. |
| 52. By: slamcactus on 11-16-2010 13:09:25 Arizona Diamondbacks now saying they'll listen to offers for Upton. Now there's a core player I'd give up the entire system minus Ackley for. |
| 53. By: Edman on 11-16-2010 13:25:26 I do love the frenzy like mental manipulations created by hyperextension of the rosteronious elaboranious muscles. It truly amazes me what many think is possible. While it's I suppose fun, to some extent. It typically is a product of over-active imaginations placed in an altered impression of reality. I find it kind of funny when people actually get upset with each other over the thought that their perception of reality is more intelligent than someone else's perception of reality. I'm willing to bet that whatever Jack does, fewer than 20% here would have ever thought to look down the path he'll choose. |
| 54. By: slamcactus on 11-16-2010 14:28:46 "I find it kind of funny when people actually get upset with each other over the thought that their perception of reality is more intelligent than someone else's perception of reality." All we're doing here is taking a look at the market. There was a time when top prospects were shipped off for roleplayers, but the market has seen a huge shift in favor of valuing prospects. I would argue that in the past couple years it's reached a ridiculous level. When the best the Indians can get for V-Mart is Justin Masterson and Nick Hagadone, things have gone a bit batty and prospects are getting overvalued. I think the Mariners' Cliff Lee deal may have been the start of a swing back towards rational valuation of young players, at least where teams can point to compensation picks to up the return. What's driving this valuation is the Grand Canyon-sized gap in the cost-to-value ratio between club-controlled players and free agents. A significant shift upwards in salaries for arbitration years would do a lot to close that gap and lead to a more rational value placed on prospects in trade, but that won't happen. The arbitral process uses only other arbitration awards as guidelines for appropriate salaries, and does not use comparisons to what comparable players earn in free agency. In fact, an MLB arbitrator flat-out told me that last week. That's a real shame. So yeah, we can look at the market, and look at veterens-for-prospects swaps of recent years and reach a relatively informed conclusion about the value of possible trade chips. Top prospects like Michael Pineda have a lot of value in trade. Greg Halman and Mauricio Robles do not. Colby Rasmus's trade value is astronomically high, because he's an above average hitter at an up-the-middle position with 4 years of club control remaining. There's not a good analog for a guy like that going on the market, but it would take a lot more than a fringe major league LF who may or may not stick and a group of relievers to get him. "I'm willing to bet that whatever Jack does, fewer than 20% here would have ever thought to look down the path he'll choose." I completely agree with this. Jack has continually surprised everyone in terms of specific moves. With the exception of the Lee trade with Philly, though, the moves he's made more or less fit with our understanding of players' relative values. |
| 55. By: slamcactus on 11-16-2010 14:31:12 And the Lee trade was absolutely awful from Philly's perspective. There's a reason Ms fans were up in arms over the haul we sent to B-more for Bedard, but the same fans were doing somersaults when news of the deal for Lee broke. Aumont and Gillies just weren't good prospects, and Ramirez was a middling one. Amaro's scouts did him wrong in that deal. |
| 56. By: pwhit44 on 11-16-2010 14:43:25 Can I just say that post 48 is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever read in my years and years of reading rosterbators? Wow. |
| 57. By: jazon_24 on 11-16-2010 14:50:54 "Saunders isn't a CF." He could be one. Saunders did play CF in 163 of 425 games in the minors according to log in. Haven't created a Prospect Insider account yet? Sign up!
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