| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 07-28-2010 |
While left-hander Luke French isn't technically a prospect, he's spent most of this season in Triple-A Tacoma and with his recent promotion to replace Ryan Rowland-Smith in the starting rotation, French becomes a potential candidate for the Opening Day Roster next spring.
I have seen French three times this season, though not in a month or so, but the key to his success has been his offspeed stuff.
When he throws his curve for strikes and is able to finish and locate his changeup, he has a chance to go through the lineup three times, despite spotty fastball command at times.
He's still sitting in the upper 80s with that four-seamer, and could use a fourth pitch to keep hitters off the fastball early in counts -- something like a cutter or sinking two-seamer.
If Jason Vargas and Doug Fister are both in the rotation in 2011, French should not be, but he's just as capable of breaking through as either incumbent has done in 2010.
Carlos Triunfel, SS
I spoke to M's player development director Pedro Grifol this week and asked about Carlos Triunfel. I inquired about the potential for more power and a possible position switch, and got two very intriguing responses.
"We don't talk about that," Grifol said of perhaps tinkering with Triunfel's swing to get more home-run power out of him. "We're trying to teach these kids to be hitters ... the power will come down the road, and he does have power."
I've witnessed the plus bat speed myself and it's as good as most power bats in the big leagues, but Grifol has a point. Edgar Martinez did not start hitting for power until he was in his mid-20s and finally in the big leagues. But because nobody messed with his swing, he learned how to hit, very well, clearly, and the power appeared naturally.
"There is power there," Grifol added. "He went from not hitting any homers to five and then he hit eight and he's showing some more this year."
Grifol also stated that Triunfel is NOT a surefire move off shortstop saying that he's showed marked improvement. Scouts actually agree.
Kyle Seager, 2B
As Chris Crawford wrote earlier this week, Seager is on fire in High Desert and deserves mention. His line-drive swing is producing high batting averages and despite below-average contact rates for a hitter without power, Seager is drawing walks and has been consistent most of the season.
"His swing is consistent," said one scout. "That is more than half the battle with young hitters. Their swing is all over the place sometimes, and you can't have balance that way. You can't be consistent within the results."
Without solicitation, Grifol grouped Seager in with Dustin Ackley when it comes to makeup and work ethic, which bodes well for Seager's future.
I don't know that he hits enough to play regularly, but the early comps of Bill Mueller lite are looking awfully accurate to this point.
He's not a shortstop, and is merely average at second base, but has experience at third and could play left field if asked.
Forrest Snow, RHP
Forrest Snow was promoted to Class-A Clinton after dominating in Everett, going 25 1/3 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run.
Snow does not possess overpowering stuff, but throws strikes to all quadrants of the strike zone with fringy stuff, but has a good feel for pitching and understands how to get batters out.
He's basically a lot like Doug Fister or Andrew Carraway at the same stage -- not a big prospect, and may end up in the bullpen depending on the development of his command and secondary stuff.
Radio hits
I'll be on KJR 950 Wednesday at 2:20 PM PT to discuss new media and I'm looking to dominate the airwaves, so check me out.
Saturday at 3 PM PT, Chris and I will both be on talking M's prospects, particularly those down in the short-season leagues in Peoria and Pulaski. I may even hit on some VSL and DSL prospects to keep an eye on.
french,-triunfel,-seager,-snow
Comments
The following 65 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: brianc1279 on 07-28-2010 15:28:17 I saw an article about Jeremy Bonderman contemplating retirement because he wants to spend more time with his family in Washington State. Do you think the M's should go after him for next year? |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-28-2010 15:33:30 No. |
| 3. By: baseballman on 07-28-2010 15:45:35 That is a really good point about Edgar. People sometimes freak out when a minor leaguers who is supposed to hit for power isnt, but thats so true that it when is the last thing to come in most cases. Triunfel is still very young and is still developing. Some may harp on him cuz hes been in the system for a few years already and the power hasnt come, but hes just 20 years old. loved the write-up JAC and I will definitely tune into KJR at 2:20 |
| 4. By: Blowgun7 on 07-28-2010 15:45:40 That is very encouraging news regarding Triunfel and the SS position. What are the odds he can stick there Jason, and not kill a team? BTW, I love listening to the podcasts from your Saturday appearances on KJR. It's a must listen for those who follow this site. |
| 5. By: TheDudeAbides on 07-28-2010 15:57:37 I wholeheartedly agree with the Edgar argument. For young players, especially those who never played College ball, you need them to be able to show they can hit, and the power will come around. When guys simply go after the long ball early on, it can ruin their careers. I partially think this is one of the problems with Lopez, though he just has a horrible approach. I'd much rather see a guy who can develop hitting to the opposite side early on than simply pull power. |
| 6. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-28-2010 16:06:01 If Triunfel can stick at short, it'd be a real blessing to the org. But I have my doubts, he's already a thickly-wound athlete. If he can stay around 195 pounds, I figure it might work for a few years- but weight is going to be big for him to watch, he isn't gonna be one of those guys with the metabolism of a hummingbird. Lopez didn't, and look what his career's becoming. A garbage regular in the bigs by age 26. However, should Ichiro retire within the next couple years (and I have my doubts as to that, I suspect Ichi will sustain his abilities well into his 40's)...then Triunfel could be a tremendous comp to Jose Guillen. But only if he gets ABs in the minors at that position. I'm not in favor of guys learning new positions at the big league level. |
| 7. By: baseballman on 07-28-2010 16:07:58 Thatd be huge if Triunfel could hold down SS until someone like Franklin or someone else is ready, and then if Triunfel is not playin great D at SS move him off of it to maybe 3B. Any news on when Triunfel is gonna get promoted? |
| 8. By: Adam T on 07-28-2010 17:11:15 I agree w/Jason re: Bonderman. I was actually intrigued with the idea before, but after taking a look at his profile, he's just not the same guy anymore. He doesn't miss as many bats, he's putting the ball in the air more, and we all know that his injury history raises serious red flags. I'd be more interested in Jorge de la Rosa. |
| 9. By: Marco on 07-28-2010 17:59:52 "Any news on when Triunfel is gonna get promoted?" Depends how he's placed in the "signing bonus" list. The more someone got the faster he goes up. |
| 10. By: DKulich44 on 07-28-2010 19:02:24 Marco, If that's a knock at how fast Ackley was promoted, keep in mind that Ackley is 2 years older than Triunfel. |
| 11. By: FWBrodie on 07-28-2010 20:38:24 So Zduriencik asked for Pablo Sandoval? Any comments on that Jason? |
| 12. By: Adam B. on 07-28-2010 20:45:37 Even if Triunfel's stay at shortstop is only a temporary one as he evebtually fills out and losses foot-speed, it's still an huge boon for the Mariners that he could potentially play the position credibly for a couple of years. If Triunfel is knocking on the door in 2012 then that gives him a year or two at the position before Franklin is ready, and then Carlos could simply be shifted over to 3B or the outfield. It's a pretty common development cycle for modern shortstops; Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Guillen, Miguel Tejada, and Cal Ripken Jr. all say hello. |
| 13. By: StandinPat on 07-28-2010 20:52:26 Exactly, even if he can only play a solid SS for 2-3 years before he outgrows the position, its still a huge boost to his value. |
| 14. By: Lailoken on 07-28-2010 21:01:23 Jason, Could Triunfel's ETA be the beginning of 2012? That would be a neat changeover from Wilson to Triunfel. |
| 15. By: Blowgun7 on 07-28-2010 23:32:39 What exactly do Chavez, and Poythress have left to prove in high A?? Both are demolishing the baseball right now and have strong season numbers to date. Why not promote them? Is it simply because there is no room for them? I guess you can also say this about Seager and Raben. Is there something not seen in the numbers which is keeping them from getting promoted?? I know you spoke with Grifol recently. |
| 16. By: StandinPat on 07-29-2010 00:23:14 Strikeouts Blow, gotta be wary of the strikeouts. A young player could be tearing the cover off the ball, but still might not be ready if the pitch recognition/plate discipline isn't there. |
| 17. By: Juan Valdez on 07-29-2010 01:32:25 On Poythress, is there absolutely no chance he could handle a position other than 1B? |
| 18. By: Uncle Al on 07-29-2010 07:15:27 I keep looking at this 2012 budget and, if they can trade Figgins and plug in Mangini, it would give them 5 LH bats and one SH in the lineup against RH pitching and 4 RH bats on the bench. Trading Figgins would free up $9M and trading RRS and Aardsma would free up another $11M in Arby money. They would also get another $25M with Bradley and other contracts running out. That's a lot of money for Zduriencik to work with in 2012. I have Ichiro, Ackley, Smoak, Raben, Gutierrez, Saunders, Triunfel, Mangini, and Moore as possible starters. Bench of Johnson, M. Wilson, Lawson, and Poythress. There are other players in the system that could also be plugged in but what is encouraging is that Zduriencik has made the farm system useful again and has a lot of time and money to make things a lot better by 2012. They got four really nice pieces in the Lee trade. It's really interesting that the Texas farm system is so good that they won't even miss the players they traded. Maybe we'll be there in a few more years. |
| 19. By: Jerry on 07-29-2010 13:12:04 Uncle Al, I think its pretty impossible to be thinking about the lineup for 2012 right now, much less the bench. Especially with Jack Z as the GM, the roster isn't likely to be anything like it is now by next year, and will have a ton of turnover before 2012. Plus, a bunch of those prospects are going to be busts, and a few more guys will emerge that you aren't even considering. Just think about Greg Halman. He was a monster in 2008, and looked like he could be a possible long term contributor in CF or RF. Then, he completely tanked last year. He sucked for the first half of this season, but has done much better that past two months. His stock is all over the place. Same general rule applies to Pineda. He was an interesting guy last year, now most expect him to be in the rotation by next year. Think about what this exercise would have looked like if you had done it two years ago. Or even at this time last year. Its fun to think about this stuff, and I am sure that Jack have a two or three year plan. But that plan is about as fluid as it gets. Opportunities will present themselves that we can't even imagine, and guys will emerge and decline in the next year. This is especially true of a team like the M's, who are basically rebuilding and having open auditions for the upcoming years. Even guessing what the starting lineup and rotation will look like on openning day 2011 is nearly impossible. Speculating on the bench for 2012 is just a fools errand. I'd bet that half the bench players in 2012 are people you haven't even heard of. |
| 20. By: maqman on 07-29-2010 13:23:52 I'm with you Uncle Al. We are going to end the season as one of the bottom four teams, along with Arizona, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. I see us and Pittsburgh moving up next season but not the Orioles or Diamondbacks, due to us having a plan and them not having a clue. I think the Ms will be an interesting team to watch in the next few seasons, thanks to the work GMZ has put in tending to the farm and his ability to wheel and deal. |
| 21. By: marinerforever on 07-29-2010 13:46:08 Uncle al You can't trade figgins untill after next season at the earliest he needs a bounce back year and why are u worried about rrs arby he is likely dfa before next year I was really suprised they didn't dfa already he is useless and as far as mangani he is more likely to be traded then brek through as a mariner |
| 22. By: willthethrill on 07-29-2010 15:05:08 Was digging through looking at Sickel's site when I came across this nugget: ..."Age-Relative-To-League is a critical factor in prospect analysis, but it isn't everything. With that in mind, how do we judge a player like Carlos Triunfel? The Mariners prospect seems like he's been around forever, but is still only 20 years old. He's hitting .284/.322/.376 for Double-A West Tennessee....good batting average, but not much power and a low walk rate are major negatives. On the other hand, his strikeout rate is also low...just 35 whiffs in 282 at-bats. Also of note is a strong platoon split: .260/.306/.326 against right-handers, but a more robust .327/.352/.465 against lefties. I'm still not sure what kind of player Triunfel is going to become, but the birthday and the low strikeout rate are positives. If you take his Southern League/West Tennessee stats and convert them to California League equivalents (neutral park), you get a .333/.379/.450 mark; someone hitting like that at age 20 in the Cal League would be getting a lot more attention. If you convert him to Midwest League/neutral park equivalents, you get .343/.391/.466. . .and there are a lot of 20 year olds in the Midwest League. Don't give up on Triunfel just yet."... This excerpt can be found here: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/7/2/1548506/minor-league-notes-july-2nd-2010#storyjump |
| 23. By: randallball on 07-29-2010 16:10:47 Jason, with that latest rumor update, do you think the org wants Figgins to stay @ 2B long-term? |
| 24. By: rjfrik on 07-29-2010 16:14:18 Got to love Jack, if can any of his requests for the two relief arms more power to him. I just don't see how he's going to do it. But I've been down this road before with him. Get er done!! |
| 25. By: baseballman on 07-29-2010 16:16:18 RE 23: I dont know if its as much about that or moreso 3B is the easier position to find a mid of the order bat at. |
| 26. By: Summertime on 07-29-2010 16:43:52 Jason, I hear Jeff Larish is going to be DFA'd by the Tigers. He has played 3rd and 1st for Detroit. Should the M's take a flyer on him at 3rd? |
| 27. By: southpaw360 on 07-29-2010 17:16:23 If I remember correctly Jack Z was interested in Larish early last year. I would assume Jack Z loves the players he loves and if Larish is DFA'd he would take a shot at him. I don't think Larish has ever gotten a extended shot at playing everyday in the majors. Seems like a decent pick-up if we could get him. |
| 28. By: randallball on 07-29-2010 17:40:26 Not really important as I like the him there, but is Mike Sweeney in purgatory down I-5 until rosters expand? How long can they keep him on a "rehab assignment"? |
| 29. By: Jason A. Churchill on 07-29-2010 18:00:37 Poythress could handle DH... but not RF or 3B. |
| 30. By: rjfrik on 07-29-2010 19:06:47 Man, all these trades happening today. Hope I hear Seattle's name soon. A day left. |
| 31. By: Blowgun7 on 07-29-2010 21:13:07 Man too bad Aardsma isn't pitching a little better. Nats just got Ramos for Capps.. |
| 32. By: Stormton on 07-29-2010 21:15:10 Damn, wish we could have gotten in on that, unless they valued Capps a great deal more than Aardsma or League. |
| 33. By: safecochatter on 07-29-2010 21:37:36 the good thing is the capps trade just set the market value for aardsma. 22 one thing about Carlos Triunfel is he's been batting at the tail of the jaxx's lineup all year. how many batters hit 300 with major cache of other numbers while hitting in the 8 and 9 hole? if your going to judge a decent prospect by numbers,give him a good slot to work with.. |
| 34. By: Adam T on 07-29-2010 22:51:02 Capps isn't better than League or Aardsma. Too bad Zduriencik wasn't involved. |
| 35. By: Edman on 07-30-2010 04:33:48 Adam, you assume a lot. Jack seems to be a guy who is always has an ear to the wall. Minnesota may not agree that League and Aardsma are better. They wanted a proven closer. League isn't one, and Aardsma doesn't have the track record as a closer. They aren't looking for talent, per se, they're looking for a specialist. |
| 36. By: Adam T on 07-30-2010 09:31:05 Capps a more proven closer than Aardsma?? No. |
| 37. By: marinermutt on 07-30-2010 09:59:00 Triunfel is batting in the .260's, not .300. |
| 38. By: rjfrik on 07-30-2010 10:07:51 Have to agree with Adam here. Capps is not a reliable closer at all. Washington is damn lucky that he has pitched well this year. Spinning him into Ramos was very fortunate for them. |
| 39. By: John_S on 07-30-2010 10:56:13 Matt Capps does have more of a track record closing than Aardsma. Does that make him a better option than Aardsma? I don't know if thats the case. From what I've seen of Nats games. The times that Capps has closed out the games, he's put batters on and has gotten lucky to not blow the saves. He could easily have blown 10 - 13 saves instead of 4. And if that was the case, we would be looking at totally different #'s. |
| 40. By: Edman on 07-30-2010 11:56:49 Some of you fail to accept that sometimes baseball teams get influenced by perception. The draft is a perfect example. How many times thoughout the season do players move up and down the board? Has their talent level suddenly changed? In some cases, but in other cases, it's a change in perception. This is particularly true of baseball writers. As for Capps, he may not be great, but the lucky thing only goes so far. I listened to the same comments about Jamie Moyer, before he was traded. How many years of lucky does it take, to not be lucky? It doesn't really matter how you finish the game, in regard to statistics, as much as the result when you do. I've seen many "lucky" pitchers over the years. And perhaps, those guys have an extra gear when there are runners on. I'm sure the stats influenced guys will argue that point. I'd have to believe that Minnesota scouted several relievers, and they saw something in Capps that they liked. But, it ridiculous to assume that: A. Jack was unaware that a deal could be made. B. Jack didn't value Aardsma differently than you. C. That Minnesota valued Aardsma less than they did Capps. Like it or not, Capps has a longer history of closing games successfully, regardless of his stats. That has meaning to some people, right or wrong. |
| 41. By: Edman on 07-30-2010 12:11:05 BTW, just for fun, I compared Capps to Chad Cordero (pre injury). Cordero was considered a quality closer. In a similar four year stretch, Capps saved 84% of the his save opportunities, and Cordero, 82%. This suggests that he's not as unreliable as some want to be. It's more accurate to say he doesn't have better peripherals, but he does achieve the expected goal, which is to save games. |
| 42. By: safecochatter on 07-30-2010 12:41:55 37 if your trying to correct me in 33,that was a question not a statement. how many batters hit 300 with major cache of other numbers while hitting in the 8 and 9 hole??? |
| 43. By: baseballman on 07-30-2010 13:08:21 RE 42: really? someone needs to work on their math skills... whered you get whatever numbers you think youre working with?! since when did an ESPN Insider account become $7 for a year?!?! |
| 44. By: rjfrik on 07-30-2010 14:26:46 I agree with Edman that we have no idea how JZ values Aardsma, I have an inkling its a lot more then straight up for Ramos. He asked Sabean for Pablo Sandoval for Aardsma and Lopez, so that tells me he isn't going to give Aardsma away for a catching prospect. I'm sure Minnesota called and Jack demanded Hicks or Delmon Young or Denard Span and then the Twins hung up the phone. Personally I don't think Capps is that reliable as a closer. Whenever I watch the guy I'm holding my breath, while he tries to implode. |
| 45. By: Edman on 07-30-2010 14:32:38 rj, it's not about how pretty a save is, it's about getting the save. And, I think Capps has proven he's at least above average in that regard. The statistical failing is that more oppportunity for failure, equals eventual failure. For most, that's true. But there are those who have an extra gear when things get tough. Certainly, the more chances you give an opponent to score, the greater the risk. But, it's not an absolute formula for failure. |
| 46. By: safecochatter on 07-30-2010 14:41:02 a question 4 the Rainer fans. if Lopez is traded or put on dl. who from Tacoma gets the shot?? Matt Mangini or Tui again?? |
| 47. By: d2ret on 07-30-2010 15:22:36 Guys, what if Jack Z doesnt value RAMOS as much as Washington does? Ever think about that? Jeez.. |
| 48. By: d2ret on 07-30-2010 15:24:43 Or maybe he doesnt value him as much as everyone else does. |
| 49. By: rjfrik on 07-30-2010 16:12:46 I understand it's about getting the save and Capps does that marginally well I guess. He was fading out as of last year. Nobody wanted the guy. Washington took a flyer on him and he had a bounce back year, at least on the surface, so they traded him. That's good business. Sell when your stock is high and buy when it's low. Capps stock will never be higher then it is now and the Nationals grabbed a decent MLB ready prospect that can plug in for Pudge after this year. Good for them. Would I ever trade or want Capps? Heck no. Moving on. |
| 50. By: safecochatter on 07-30-2010 16:22:41 exactly d2ret..maybe the scouts are saying Ramos has hit the wall at aaa. also league and aardsma are worth more imho. they have two years of arby left. capps only one. |
| 51. By: Edman on 07-30-2010 16:24:35 I really dislike the "his stock will never be higher" stuff. Maybe that's true, and maybe that's not. It all depends on wheither your point of view is positive, or negative. In regard to Capps, his stock may never be higher, but it may not be any lower over the next few years. He's not pitching over his head. He's very similar to past years, if you exclude last year. Bad years happen, especially for relievers. Did Washington make a smart move? Absolutely. |
| 52. By: d2ret on 07-30-2010 16:25:57 ..Exactly. I know we all want Z to max out, win all his trades and reconstruct this roster quick, but the beauty in this whole thing is that different GM's value players differently, especially considering the trajectories of the clubs they are running. With that said, it appears there have been a few cheap sales at this deadline, but based on Z's track record so far, hes gonna do diligence, with what he has and find a deal that works for the M's. |
| 53. By: Edman on 07-30-2010 16:34:42 If the Yankees get Berkmann, I'm gonna puke. MLB needs to get in like with other pro sports and put league salary structure under tighter control. No team should be allowed to outspend the teams at the bottom of the totem pole, and the teams at the bottom, should be forced to spend all of their revenue sharing money on players, or lose it. Not to increase their bottom line. |
| 54. By: Edman on 07-30-2010 16:36:45 I meant, outspend the teams at the bottom of the totem pole by four times.....sorry. |
| 55. By: d2ret on 07-30-2010 16:37:33 I guess you better grab a trash can then Edman. |
| 56. By: Edman on 07-30-2010 16:53:20 Makes trading Lee to Texas even more meaningful. Screw the Yankees. Money can always make you look smart, as long as nobody's evaluating the cost of your decisions. |
| 57. By: Missthosepilots on 07-30-2010 17:39:59 Edman, kind of like dealing with Boras. But you can't avoid him. |
| 58. By: slamcactus on 07-30-2010 19:26:26 Somtimes stock isn't directly linked to performance, Edman. Capps has 1 more year before free agency. Even if you think he'll keep pitching well, the longer a team waits to trade him, the less value the receiving team will get out of him (and the less they will be willing to pay). Even if Capps had been dynamite the rest of the way it would not have significantly raised his trade value this offseason, or next July, because teams would be trading for fewer appearances. |
| 59. By: Edman on 07-30-2010 19:50:53 You assume, slam, that Minnesota gives a shit about his trade value. They didn't acquire him to trade him. They acquired him to help them to the post-season. You further assume that they have a desire to trade him after this season. I'm sure Minnesota hopes to be a buyer next season and in the off-season. I'm not sure why you feel Minnesota gives a crap about what his value will be later on. They're looking at the playoffs. You worry about the rest later. |
| 60. By: slamcactus on 07-30-2010 20:17:04 You totally misread my comment, Ed. His trade value was highest to the Nationals now, because the acquiring team would get the most ACTUAL value (not trade) out of him. |
| 61. By: Edman on 07-30-2010 21:46:38 Sorry, I did misread it. I retract my statement. |
| 62. By: rjfrik on 07-30-2010 22:15:49 Jesus Edman take a chill pill. You frequently seem to get upset about peoples posts. And I know you will say "I wasn't upset" or "I wasn't coming off like that" but then why cuss? On another point. Is anyone else making gobs of money off the M's this year? Honestly I've never made more money betting on baseball in my life. The M's have made me a boatload of cash. I love it!! I know Ed: "How can you root for your team to lose or bet against your team" My answer to that is because you would be a fool not to, they are basically a mint printing money. |
| 63. By: Chris Crawford on 07-30-2010 23:09:58 Can everyone please kumbaya it? I know it's a...interesting time, and we have differing opinions, but lets all play nice for a little bit. Thank you. |
| 64. By: Edman on 07-31-2010 01:37:16 I apologized rj, what more should I have done? |
| 65. By: rjfrik on 07-31-2010 03:56:01 Sorry Ed. Had a couple of glasses of wine and didn't see the apology. As Chris said, lets kumbaya it. Go M's. Go Z, make a trade happen baby!! |
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