Prospect Insider - Garrett Olson versus Rich Hill

Garrett Olson versus Rich Hill

By Jason A. Churchill

By 02-03-2009

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Since both Garrett Olson and Rich Hill are left-handers and recently connected via trade interest to the Seattle Mariners - Olson coming in the Aaron Heilman trade and Hill eventually being dealt to Baltimore for Conor Glassey's car - and license plate frame - there has been some question as to which of the two makes more sense for the M's.

Fastball
Hill has slight edge in the velocity category, typically sitting in the 89-92 mph range with his four-seamer – occasionally touching 93. He also throws a two-seamer that sits around 88 miles per hour and runs in on right-handed batters.

Olson’s velocity was more up and down in 2008 than Hill has showed in the past, though Hill didn’t pitch much last season with the Cubs. Olson’s first start of ’08 showed a fastball in the 86-92 range, with the 86’s being cutters that he uses in place of the slider he has scrapped.

Hill pitches up with fastball and Olson keeps his down, which in itself explains the differences in the ground ball rates. Olson’s cutter is something he gets a high percentage of strikes out of, whether it be on a pitch fouled off a swing and a miss or a called strike.

Curve Ball
Hill has one of the better curve balls in the game, sitting in the 73-74 mph range at an 11-7 angle. He’ll use it versus lefties and righties in hopes that left-handed bats are frozen and right-handers give up on its late action on the back side. The pitch may be a 65 on the 20-80 scale.

Olson’s curve ball can get slurvy at times, which is to say it’s often flat, but he’s shown a better one in the past and flashed it against the Devil Rays last May. There’s not a lot of depth to the pitch presently, but at its best it breaks sharp and late – down and away from left-hander and in and right-handed batters.

One scout who viewed one of Olson’s starts versus Oakland with me on video suggested that his grip may need to be altered and Olson may be trying to throw the pitch too hard, which would explain the fact that he threw at least 10 curve balls at 80-mph or higher.

Changeup
Hill doesn’t throw his change a whole lot; he’s now mixing in his two-seam fastball in its place sometimes, but it’shi changeup is not even an average pitch anyway. It’s usually in the 80-mph range and without as much fade or movement as one would prefer.

[Hill, for example, threw three whole changeups last April versus Houston, despite the Astros tossing eight right-handed batters at him]

Olson’s change has better action than does Hill’s and he’ll use it more, utilizing the pitch at about a 15-17 percent rate on average. His arm speed is solid and he throws it for strikes, but the velocity, 79-81 miles per hour, isn’t ideal when he’s throwing in the upper-80s with his fastball.

Control/Command
The 6-5 Hill has a better track record of throwing strikes somewhat consistently, but Olson has but one year under his belt and has a better minor league history of pounding the strike zone.

Neither pitcher has shown more than average command or control in the big leagues, but Olson was solid in the minors while Hill clearly stayed up in the zone with a lot of success and accepted the fact that he’d give up the home run and issue some walks.

Olson’s 2008 season was unlike any other he’s had as a pro and if there is enough development left in his stuff to hike it up a notch, it should be easier for him to confidently throw strike and avoid the base on balls a lot more than he did in his first full season in the big leagues.

Mechanics
Hill’s delivery is deceptive, adding to the effectiveness of his average fastball, and perhaps covering up for his spotty command on occasion. He’s corrected, somewhat, the cresting of his elbow on his breaking ball, but he still lands fairly awkwardly, which tends to lead him into leaving his pitches up at times.

Hill can also experience stints where he’s short-arming his pitches, which robs his fastball of life, movement and pure velocity, which he cannot afford.

The health of his elbow is always going to be a concern, due to the added torque put on his arm when he throws his curve ball and the number of times he uses the pitch, though he’s learned to use it a little bit less over the past few years.

Hill doesn’t use his drive leg enough for my taste – he’s a tall lefty with leverage, but doesn’t use it for plane or velocity. He pitches a little bit like Chuck Finley, but with less savvy and no slider-cutter-splitter combo to neutralize right-handed batters.

And while it's difficult not to like the deceptive arm action, it's equally tough to ignore how he avoids bending his back and knees, which works against him in terms of control, consistency with all of his pitches, velocity and long-term health.

Instead, Hill simply nibbles against good RHBs, walking almost one every two innings of work over his career.

Olson’s body of work in the minors shows no red flags in regards to his mechanics. He’s never spent significant time on the DL, does not serve up the home run - only 27 in 321 career MiLB frames – and still found a way to get minor leaguers to swing and miss without surrendering to control problems.

Player	Age	FIP	IP	K/9	BB/9	GB%
MLB - Garrett Olson	23-24	5.36	165.0	6.06	4.91	40.4
MLB - Rich Hill	26-29	4.52	337.2	8.24	3.65	35.4

Player	Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	BB/9	GB%
MiLB - Olson	21-24	321	8.9	2.9	$9m	11.045
MiLB - Hill	22-26	451.2	12.4	4.6	A-3	5.171

Player	FB	CB	CH	Control	Command	Mechanics
Olson	87-90	74-78	76-82	40	45	55
Hill	88-92	72-74	78-84	45	45	45

Future
The Seattle Mariners showed interest in both pitchers, which is the sole purpose of this exercise, and while we don’t know who the player to be named later is going to be in the Hill-to-Baltimore move, the one thing we haven’t mentioned here is the years of club control each player has remaining.

Olson will not be arbitration eligible until after the 2010 season, provided he spends enough of the next two years in the big leagues, while Hill is eligible this season and is due for free agency following the 2011 season, likely costing millions more than Olson, and two years sooner.

But that’s if Hill even finds himself in the big leagues during that span, considering his nightmare 2008 campaign. Hill had a forgettable spring where he walked 15 batters in 17 2/3 innings, and his control problems followed him into the regular season.

He was sent to the minors where he had more problems and went on the disabled list with stiffness in his lower back. He never returned to the Cubs and did not figure into their plans for their rotation in 2009.

While there aren’t any major flaws in his mechanics at first glance, the Cubs were tinkering with some adjustments in attempt to aid Hill in his journey back to throwing strikes consistently, and the Baltimore Orioles are certain to look at video and try the same thing.

Hill was a mess by mid-season and was shut down to give him a mental break from the grind of the season.

Olson, on the other hand, comes to the Mariners with a very smooth delivery and no history of major injuries or lengthy control problems, which is very valuable to a team that is trying to gather talent and evaluate the players in their organization before putting a label on what they truly have to work with going forward.

While a healthy Hill has the best chance to be more than back-end starter in 2009 and beyond, Olson is cheaper, safer and has some upside as a No. 4 starter. And if he regains a few mphs on his fastball – he was generally clocked at 90-92 in the minors in 2006-07 – and the rest of his game ticks up a little bit with more instruction and experience, the 25-year-old is not only the far better bargain for the M’s, but he could the better pitcher altogether.

Right now, injuries aside, the breaking ball is the difference – Hill’s is terrific while Olson’s is presently below average. Neither pitcher has top-drawer control or command, but Olson’s history suggests he will throw strikes.

Physically, Hill has the advantage over the 6-feet-1, 200-pound Olson, but mechanics can be the equalizer, and these two southpaws are on the opposite sides of that spectrum when it comes to maximizing their physical attributes.

Jack Zduriencik may have had interest in Hill to some extent, but when he made the trade with the Cubs for Olson he certainly chose the correct southpaw for which to trade Aaron Heilman.

Though I still think, for 2009, Ryan Rowland-Smith is a better pitcher with a better fastball, better breaking ball and better changeup. Olson has a little work to do, but carries more upside, so if it came down to a question of which of the two I’d place in the No. 5 slot in the rotation, I’d lean toward Olson today.

Of course, swapping out two bad pitching contracts in Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva – perhaps with some cash or a prospect – for someone else’s bad contract, such as Juan Pierre or Vicente Padilla + Frank Cattalanotto – would open up two spots.

Okay, that’s asking too much of Zduriencik, but he’s setting the bar higher and higher and the winter proceeds.
Result of the Olson-over-Hill trade is a Win, for the M’s, and there hasn't been enough of that in this town lately.

garrett-olson-versus-rich-hill

Comments
The following 9 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Slurve on 02-03-2009 17:01:53
Let's say Olson develops an above average breaking ball What would his ceiling be then?

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-03-2009 17:21:51
If nothing else got noticeably better?

Solid No. 4.

3. By: 01v-dubs on 02-03-2009 17:58:29
Jason why is it that RRS is thought to not have much of a high ceiling? His FB can get into the low 90's and can hit 93-94 once in a while, and he has a solid CB and change, and he's shown an ok slider. A couple of years ago BA said what was holding him back was a lack of a true out pitch, but it seems to me that his CB has that potential.

It seems to me that he could be a solid #3 given his variance of quality pitches, solid control, and presumed durability.

4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-03-2009 20:53:50
RRS is further along in his development and has a little bit less projection left in him, despite the age similarities.

At times in the minors, Olson has consistently pitched into the 6th and 7th innings, sustaining 90-92 mph velo and an above average curve and change.

The difference there is that RRS has always shown problems sustaining his stuff much past 90-100 pitches, which is why he was pushed into the pen in the first place.

There certainly isn't a big difference between each pitchers' stuff and potential future, though, and RRS is better right now, for sure.

5. By: littlelinny6 on 02-03-2009 21:33:05
Jason, I think all this discussion begs the question. Are both Olson and RRS better than Washedup right now? If so and the M's definitely try to move him, how much money do you think they have to eat of this contract for it to be possible, $5 million??

6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-03-2009 21:36:37
Yes and that depends on what they are getting in return and if they are willing to send another play with Washburn.

7. By: littlelinny6 on 02-03-2009 22:05:27
It is a sad commentary that two guys making peanuts basically have no shot at Washburn's rotation spot solely due to salary. I still cannot figure out how Washburn, throwing 90% 85 mph fastballs gets guys out, I guess just some luck. Gutierrez, Chavez, and Ichiro better stretch well before the games when he pitches...haha. What do scouts say about Washburn? Have you heard any inking that anyone is really interested in him?

8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 02-03-2009 22:35:47
Who says they have no shot?

I don't remember hearing anything even remotely close to that coming from anyone's mouth, either directly or in decipherable code.

But honestly, the difference on the mound between RRS, Olson and Washburn isn't much in either direction.

Salary aside, there's a good chance Washburn out-pitches both of them and is the better man for the job.

The problem is that he's not part of the future, has limited value to the M's because of that, and the two players he'd be pitching in front of may have a long-term future in Seattle.

This isn't about RRS and Olson being so far and away better pitchers, because that's not the case, particularly with Olson, who was actually a better pitcher than Olson last season - 4.78 FIP to 5.20 - and though RRS's overall FIP is better at 4.62, his FIP as a starter is about equal to Washburn's.

This just comes down to the futures of all three pitchers. Washburn isn't getting better and RSS and Olson aren't getting worse.

9. By: Edman on 02-05-2009 11:20:24
I'm thrilled to get Olson in the deal. I was expecting a A ball fringe prospect, at most. Olson pitched a great game at Safeco last year. I saw and article about him where his manager thought it was just a matter of him relaxing. It's a very common condition with kids, until they get comfortable in the majors.

As far as Hill goes, I wouldn't have given up much to get him. His control problems are huge. He hasn't found control in the Vennie Leauge this Winter, without much pressure. And, I certainly wouldn't assume he's simply going to snap out of it.

I don't think you can go wrong with either Olson or RRS. Competition is a good thing. Both will hopefully come out of Spring with their best foot forward.

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