| By Chris Crawford |  | By 07-09-2010 |
It was something that everyone knew was going to happen -- and yet it still came and hit like a ton of bricks. The trade of Cliff Lee was far from a surprise -- though I don’t think anyone expected to see him traded ‘twice’ in the span of two hours.
For a few months -- people had heard that the elite prospects weren’t going to be moved in a trade for Lee. Minnesota wasn’t going to move Aaron Hicks -- and all reports seem to say that Hicks was definitely in play til the end. The Yankees were not going to move Jesus Montero for only two months of the left-hander -- and he was everything but here. And Jason and I were positive Justin Smoak wasn’t coming to Seattle -- as early as the podcast we did two weeks ago. The Mariners took a player who wasn’t going to stay -- and gave up very little for -- and turned it into gold. Let’s take a look at the good, the less-good and the ugly of the Cliff Lee trade.
The Good
The positive is obviously the players acquired, and that starts with Justin Smoak and to a lesser extent Blake Beavan. Smoak is a switch-hitting first base-men who was the Rangers first-round pick in 2008. Smoak’s swing is smooth and effortless that he easily repeats from both sides of the plate with little wasted motion. He is able to center the ball very well -- and his power is to all fields. Smoak shows good plate discipline from both sides of the plate and has shown above average pitch recognition in the show. Smoak has struggled, however, at the big-league level as a right-hander hitter. The scouts I talked to today though, didn’t seem concerned about his ability to hit left-handed pitching long-term. “He’s a smart kid, and as he sees more left-handers, I have no doubt he’ll make an adjustment. He’s probably not going to produce more home-runs from the left-side, especially in Safeco, but he won’t be a platoon player.” Defensively, Smoak is as good as it gets, displaying soft-hands, a good throwing arm and solid instincts and reactions. If he had more speed, Smoak would be a very good outfielder -- but he has none, a twenty-five runner at best.
Beavan was the first-round pick of the Rangers the year before Smoak -- and results have been mixed. The right-handed Texas was clocked in the 95 range during his prep career -- but hasn’t shown the same velocity -- generally throwing anywhere from 89 to 93. Beavan does have outstanding command of said fast-ball however, evident by only twelve walks this season. Beavan has a slider that can be effective, but doesn’t have the same feel for the pitch and it can come up short on him. “It’s tough to argue with the results” the same scout told me, “but the upside he had in high school is pretty much gone. We thought he was going to be a Brad Penny type, but he’s been more Kevin Slowey than Penny -- it’s not a bad thing, it’s just disappointing from what we saw as a prep”.
“The Bad”
The other two prospects aren’t complete roster fodder- but it’s definitely a drop after Beavan. Josh Lueke is interesting -- and no, I am not even going to touch the legal issue. The right-hander is mostly a fastball-slider pitcher who will also show a split-finger and has put up some ridiculous numbers in both the Sally and Texas League. Not a lot of upside -- but a potential contributor in the middle innings -- maybe even a set-up man if he continues to miss bats.
Speaking of not a lot of upside-- that describes Matt Lawson to a tee -- only his chance of contributing is much lower. Lawson has had a career- year in Frisco -- but his OPS of .809 is pretty inflated by a ridiculous June in which he OPS of .906. Lawson is also an extreme split hitter - as evidence by his OPS of 1.052 vs. lefties and .661 vs. right-handers. Lawson does not get glowing reviews for his glove and hasn’t shown much flexibility with the glove -- so the utility-role might be a stretch. For the 4th player in the trade -- they could have done worse, but I wouldn’t exactly invest in the Matt Lawson rookie card.
The Ugly -- aka The Sad
Yep, the Mariners got a very good return for Cliff Lee. You would be completely correct to say the Mariners gave up a lot less to get Lee than they got. And finally, yes -- Justin Smoak is likely to be a tremendously important part of making Seattle a winning team.
I’m still sad. What Lee did in his short time in Seattle was as good a stretch of playing baseball as we will ever see. If I ever saw a left-hander have 80 command for a period of time -- it was Lee. It was a short run -- but it was really impressive -- and Mariner fans should consider themselves privileged to have the opportunity to watch. Best of luck, Cliff.
gbu----cliff-lee-trade-edition
Comments
The following 90 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: 200tang on 07-09-2010 21:48:53 I generally don't root for division rivals in the playoffs, but this year I'm making an exception because I really want Cliff to win a ring. Although at the same time, he'd probably be more inclined to sign with them if he did get a ring. *sigh* Conflicting emotions... |
| 2. By: marinermutt on 07-09-2010 22:28:42 Chris, it seems Jason has a little bit higher opinion of the trade than you based on his 3:45 update. "Nothing to dislike, even a little bit" Beavan doesn't miss a lot of bats so far, but he is still young and with a new organization and new minor league instructors, maybe that velocity can come back up. I think he has more upside than McAllister currently. Love his strikeout to walk ratio and pitching in the Texas league is not a piece of cake. As for Lee, loved watching him pitch. Like a machine. But I also knew we wouldn't be able to keep him longterm as you just can't have that much salary tied up into 2 starting pitchers. If we have learned anything since Safeco opened, you can get by with more average type pitchers. |
| 3. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 22:32:12 I dont think we disagree really -- the two guys in the "bad" section don't have to do a single thing to make this a successful trade -- Just thought it was an interesting way to look at the trade -- it maybe should have been titled Good less good and ugly, which is what I really called it in the post. M's did great today, no question. |
| 4. By: lightbat on 07-09-2010 22:41:37 I feel like I just broke up with a good girlfriend. Now that this trade has happened I want Lee back. I don't think we realize what we have given up. That being said I do see a wonderful future. My only real complaint is that we didn't land Holland. Chris, how far away is Halman and what is his potential? Is it higher than Saunders? I would love to see him play left for many years. One last thing, Lee = class. |
| 5. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 22:46:21 Ya -- do not get me wrong, I'm 100 percent happy with this trade -- but Cliff Lee is awesome. Halman is probably earning himself a September call-up, and maybe a chance to compete for a job in 2011. |
| 6. By: dawgncarolina on 07-09-2010 23:08:08 Chris, curious as to what made you say this: "Lawson does not get glowing reviews for his glove". I've read that he was rated the top defensive 2B in the Cal League last year, and that his defensive statistics are top notch. What are you hearing that contradicts that? |
| 7. By: lightbat on 07-09-2010 23:19:32 Any other possible trades out there? Will someone please take Lopez off our hands? |
| 8. By: marinermutt on 07-09-2010 23:20:53 Nice write-up on Smoak and Beavan from the Rangers mid season top 20 prospect report. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/402824-mid-season-rankings-top-20-prospects-for-the-texas-rangers |
| 9. By: lightbat on 07-09-2010 23:21:24 Any other possible trades out there? Will someone please take Lopez off our hands? |
| 10. By: Chris Crawford on 07-09-2010 23:28:43 Dawg -- couple of people I talked to said he was nothing special. It's not like he's Steve Sax out there -- but he's not Chase Utley either, and to play he would need to be at that level. Great question though. |
| 11. By: Blowgun7 on 07-09-2010 23:32:08 Seriously, how bad is this major league team right now? My goodness. Figgins continues to do nothing. Ichiro looks disinterested. Lopez is a total lost cause at this point. I am convinced Guti is hurt and/or disgusted. Johnson is as hapless as ever. Did I forget anyone? This is going to be a hideous second half IMO. Basically gonna be tuning in each night to just see what Smoak and Saunders do. |
| 12. By: baseballman on 07-10-2010 00:16:23 Loving the direction of this team. Getting younger and cheaper. our system looks like its on its way to become stacked and our best guys are close to the bigs. loving the outlook for this team! |
| 13. By: lightbat on 07-10-2010 00:22:03 Bedard for Montero! Lol. I couldn't type it without laughing. Great day for the Mariners. |
| 14. By: FWBrodie on 07-10-2010 00:32:01 Justin Smoak... Sigh of relief. I can sleep easy tonight. |
| 15. By: baseballman on 07-10-2010 00:33:35 Im wondering what I will do tomorrow not being glued to my computer anymore...haha this was a crazy and fun couple of days and it ended up being the absolute best case scenario |
| 16. By: Blowgun7 on 07-10-2010 00:48:23 At least Smoak arrives tomorrow. These games just get in the way of the excitement about the future lately. They are the worst part of following the team. So much crap that still has to be removed from this roster but at least you get the feeling we're going to be turning the page to better things very soon. |
| 17. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-10-2010 00:57:13 Well said, Blowgun7. I'm thinking we just got a very important part of a winning team's nucleus. Don't get me wrong, neither player is a true comparison to counterpart- but Smoak and Ackley might be as fun for us to watch as what Bagwell and Biggio were for a generation of Houston Astros fans. Add a pinch of Carlos Triunfel and Saunders and some high-end starting pitching in Pineda and Paxton? The possibilities, the possibilities...I have to sleep now on the possibilities.... |
| 18. By: rjfrik on 07-10-2010 02:11:09 You guys said it. This team is bad really bad, but the future is bright really bright, so it's a good trade off I guess. The only other silver lining this year, other then watching Smoak and Saunders progress is that fact that this team is so bad it will undoubtedly select a top 3 pick next year. Honestly without Lee bailing us out every time he pitches I have a feeling we are going to be in for a long long second half. Here's hoping for Rendon. Future Rotation 2013 Felix Pineda Paxon Beavan Fister/Vargas has to make us all salivate. Lineup needs a few more pieces but if we can get Rendon this won't be that bad Future Lineup 2013 Moore C Smoak 1B Ackley 2B Franklin SS ? Rendon 3B Saunders LF Franky G CF Ichiro RF Figgens DH ? |
| 19. By: 200tang on 07-10-2010 02:44:27 lol @ Figgins DH & Rendon 3B. |
| 20. By: slick on 07-10-2010 04:59:34 Nice to see we got a bullpen arm in this deal with Kelley having elbow issues Fields on the DL Lowe now traded Orta coming off TJ surgery and League/Aardsma on the trade block it would be nice to have some internal option to fill the pen. I hope Aardsma can regain some of his 2009 form these next couple of weeks to raise his trade value or give him some confidence going into next year. |
| 21. By: safecochatter on 07-10-2010 09:14:47 nice write up on the yankees take of the trade. seems it was the refusal to replace the injured adams with aaa ss nunez that swung things to texas/smoak. nice to see yanks left at the alter! ....By then another champion will have been crowned. Maybe it will be the Yankees anyway. But for a moment on July 9, it felt like the parade already had begun before Seattle — fittingly — rained on that parade. Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/seattle_negotiations_all_smoak_and_V7ruZ3s1czmUV3k9n8y2EI#ixzz0tHwTlaOh |
| 22. By: Jerry on 07-10-2010 10:48:34 I gotta agree with the optimists here, although I think its a bit premature to be coming up with 2013 lineups (as in post #18). I still think the M's window will be 2012-13. I was a bit of a pessimist about this year, and wasn't surprised they hit a snag this season. But the future is looking bright. Jack is accumulating talent, and the farm system seems really strong right now. They need to punt this year, make solid strides with a young nucleus next year, and keep working on the foundation of an improving organization. It seems like most of the M's talent is around AA right now. Ackley, Triunfel, Robles, and Liddi, plus lesser talents like Peguero, Varvaro, Fields, Cortes (who I think could be a good pen guy) and Hill are all about two years away. And Dennis Raben is right behind them. Once those guys reach the big leagues, this team could really be hitting its stride as a long term contender. The M's need to focus on developing players the rest of the way. I'd like to see the M's move Lopez, even if they don't get anything important back. He's not part of the future. Bring up Tui, and see if he sticks at 3B. Why not? In all likelihood, Figgins will be moving over there soon anyhow, with Ackley at 2B. Might as well start to move dead weight off the roster. Same thing is true with Branyan. Sure, he's a good player, and helped add some power to the lineup. But he's gone after this year, and the M's have too many guys at 1B/DH/LF. I'd be open to moving him if I were the M's. He could net us a decent reliever prospect in a deal near the deadline for a team in need of a power bat. I'd also like to see Moore get another shot in the second half. He's better than he looked initially. Since getting sent back to Tacoma, he's hitting .378/.403/.514 (although in a small sample of PAs). I think we know that Johnson is more of a solid backup now. Lets see if Moore can play. What does the team have to lose? I also hope that Smoak's arrival doesn't mean less PA for Saunders. He looks better and better every week, and I'd like to see him grab hold of LF for the M's with a strong second half. |
| 23. By: marinerforever on 07-10-2010 11:29:00 I agree with looking to the future but i would try to move bradley rather than branyan. move branayn to DH pick up his option for next year. And move lopez for a bag of balls.trade jack wilson and let josh wilson play there for the next year plus There is a nice nucleus coming together here c moore 1b smoak 2nd ackley ss jo wilson 3rd figgins lf saunders cf guti rf ichiro dh branyan That is a good amount of power for the lineup |
| 24. By: Marco on 07-10-2010 11:40:55 Just a stupid and useless thought now that everything is settled. But when I read some days ago this report by JAC: "The Mets are the most desperate and have pieces to move that may be able to get it done, but they aren't an easy favorite because they don't have what Seattle Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is believed to prefer -- near-ready impact bats." I've been hoping the new M's 1B would have been Ike Davis and not Justin Smoak. Aside from the impossible (Joey Votto) that was the Man in my opinion. |
| 25. By: Blowgun7 on 07-10-2010 11:47:35 Smoak is a lot better than Davis IMO. |
| 26. By: Uncle Al on 07-10-2010 11:50:39 Jerry I think 2012-13 is the window also. They're still going to be stuck with the Bradley and Jack Wilson contracts in 2011 plus the $5.5M left over from the Silva contract. That's $22M that comes off the books for 2012. They have almost no wiggle room left in the 2011 budget now even after plugging Smoak in. |
| 27. By: rjfrik on 07-10-2010 12:05:40 I think 2012 is the first year of the transformation of losing bloated contracts off the books like Al said and the first full season's of a few guys down on the farm. But usually the kids down on the farm take a year to grab hold of MLB pitchers and hitters (unless your Braun, Longoria or Strasburg), that's why I think 2013 is the year where we make a run. I have no problem watching this thing shake out for two more years and being rewarded on the third. My guess is Pineda is up sometime next year and Paxon, Beavan are up sometime in 2012. Ackley and Halman are up sometime next year as well. |
| 28. By: Blowgun7 on 07-10-2010 12:07:42 This team still needs to add another power bat for 2012-2013. Things are starting to come together. I think we'll have some high quality options in regards to starting pitchers by then, but we still don't have long term middle of the order bats. Smoak is great and can be your #3 hitter for the next 5 years, Ackley should be a very good #2 hitter by that time, Ichiro will probably play well into his 40s. And then we have some other solid bats like Guti and Saunders. However, we're still missing those middle of the order guys. DH and 3B would be the two positions I'd look to add big power over the next couple of seasons. Maybe Raben/Poythress can work as a DH platoon in a couple of years, but we may have to work another trade or work the FA market in 2012 to find those guys. My hope is that Figgins has a good bounce back year in 2011, and we can move him. I just don't see him being part of the solution long term, especially given how perfect of a #2 hitter Ackley would be. Makes little sense to bat Figgins 9th and put him at 3B, when we still need some pop, and 3B is a postion where you can find guys to bring it. |
| 29. By: jgstecker on 07-10-2010 12:32:54 Just to clarify some misinformation going around: Justin Smoak is under team control for six more years AFTER this year. In order for a season to qualify as a full year of service time, a player must accumulate 172 days on an active roster or DL. Smoak was not called up until April 22nd giving him a total of 165 days of service time at the end of the year. Yes, Texas did this to him on purpose. He will be under team control through the 2016 season. He will be eligible for Super Two arbitration after 2012 however, provided he doesn't get sent down for any length of time. |
| 30. By: Jerry on 07-10-2010 12:50:34 I think SS is a huge need as well. The M's only legit SS prospects are Nick Franklin and Gabriel Noriega. Those guys are both at least two years away, likely three. Jack Wilson can't stay healthy, and is a defense-only guy when he is on the field. Josh Wilson isn't as good as he looked lately. The M's need to look to improve at SS in the short term. I still would love to see them pry Reid Brignac from TB, although that seems less likely with Jason Bartlett not playing too well. I wish that Jose Reyes was available, but he has a team option for next year with the Mets. I think the team has better internal options at 3B, with interesting guys at every level. Tuiasosopo is ML ready right now, and the M's would be wise to see if he can finally figure things out. Leaving him at one position for a bit could allow him to work on his defense to at least become adequate. Liddi is doing pretty well in AA, and Triunfel profiles best there long term too. In the lower levels of the system we have Mario Martinez, Jharmidy DeJesus, and Edwin Morla, with Marcus Littlewood perhaps ending up there too. For 3B, I think the M's would be wise to just go with what they have. Figgins is going to hit better, and the M's have tons of options down on the farm. There aren't any premium guys there, but there is enough depth so that they can give guys a shot and perhaps get lucky with one of them. Triunfel starting to hit for some power would really help. Speaking of Morla, does anyone know anything about him? He's hitting .329/.390/.781 with Pulaski right now. Short season stats are always suspect, but I am wondering if the scouting reports match up with the performance. It'd be nice to have another solid 3B bat in the system. And hell, with the M's rebuilding, and an excellent crop of players in the 2011 draft, its not inconceivable that Anthony Rendon could drop to the M's, especially if they have a pick in the top 5 (which is not entirely unlikely). You never know. |
| 31. By: Lamda on 07-10-2010 13:08:35 Jason/Chris - Z said yesterday that he had a few deals on the table that he could have taken yesterday. Aside from the Yankee one that was pretty public, you guys hear any of the names that were being considered from the other teams? All the prospects involved don't really matter but the center-pieces of the proposed trade. Just curiousity at what was on the table from other clubs. |
| 32. By: bobbysee1 on 07-10-2010 13:14:03 Blowgun I'm with you. Smoak is better than Davis. Heck, they're not even in the same league. Get it...........? |
| 33. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-10-2010 14:02:38 I still would love to see them pry Reid Brignac from TB, although that seems less likely with Jason Bartlett not playing too well. So would I. So would the rest of baseball. It'd be like a UFO sighting within baseball and Jack Z would be publicly accused of hypnotism. "You got Tampa Bay to part with someone young and talented?!" Regarding Tuiasasopo: I'm thinking the time is now to figure out what he's going to be- if anything- in this organization. Call him up, put him in a somewhat-regular position (like 3B when Lopez is gone) give him some ABs and let's see what he does with it. Right now he's kind of the anomaly of the entire farm system: good enough to consider holding onto and they don't want to lose him, it seems...yet very undefined as to what they hope he becomes. I'm thinking Randy Bush-style bench player is his ceiling. Limited defensive replacement at four or five positions (LF,RF,1B,3B,maybe 2B). Like, he only plays the 8th-9th innings. |
| 34. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-10-2010 14:05:54 One thing I'm relatively certain of: There's three weeks to go before the trading deadline, and Jack isn't done yet. I am really curious what his follow-up moves are going to be. |
| 35. By: baseballman on 07-10-2010 14:14:05 RE 33: Well if anyone could do it, it would be Z. 2 days ago, Smoak was untouchable. We gave up literall nothing for one of the best SP in all of baseball. We traded an over the hill JJ Putz for Guti, Vargas +. The system is getting stacked and Jack has the players to make a deal happen. One thing is for sure, he isnt done. Also on Tui, I think we could see Lopez dealt and see Tui be given 3B until the end of the year to see what hes got. He needs to start getting some ML ABs on a regular basis. Im not sayin hes a future starter here, but hes at least a valuable UT player, but he needs to get used to MLB pitchers. We still have 3 weeks until the trade "deadline" so Im pretty much expecting to see tons of rumors with the Ms linked to many different players |
| 36. By: Juan Valdez on 07-10-2010 14:29:02 I don't understand why Brignac is so highly coveted. Admittedly, I've never watched him play and I've done very little research on his defensive abilities, but I'm looking at his numbers and I just don't get it. Maybe one or more of you can help me out with this? |
| 37. By: 200tang on 07-10-2010 14:51:09 @36 - He's a plus defensive shortstop who hits decent from the left side of the plate. Hit RHP pretty well over his minor league career (.279/.334/.465). He's a solid shortstop who probably won't win any awards. |
| 38. By: Lailoken on 07-10-2010 15:04:10 Juan, I like to look at Fangraphs where they have a formula set up for value. Shortstop is such a valuable position, harder to get a guy who has the skillset to field & hit well. Brignac is worth 3.2 million over the 65 games he's played so far this year. Meanwhile his strikeout rate is much higher than it was in the minor & his ISO is way lower. He's only had 300 ML at bats & he's 24. In his prime he could be worth a ton in value if he lives up to his potential which, while not elite, is substantial. That lefty stick is a bonus for a middle infielder too. Brignac's been running a reverse split in the bigs, he'll adjust & hit righties more like he did in the minors. The weird timeshare with Zobrist, Bartlett, & Rodriguez hasn't done him many favors. |
| 39. By: Jerry on 07-10-2010 16:20:02 RE #36, I agree with pretty much everything Lailoken said above, and won't repeat it. But your question got me thinking about SS's. I think we are seeing a real lull in the quality of talent at that position. Perhaps it is just teams becoming more aware of the value of good defense. But the golden age of SSs during the 1990s, with Jeter, A-Rod, and Nomar, seem to be over. Look around the league, and there are very few SSs who are good defensive players and put up good offensive numbers. Hanley Ramirez is the only true star offensive player that plays the position, and he is generally considered to be a liability with the glove. Troy Tulowitzki is a very good hitter and a good defensive player. After that, who else is there? The drop off after those top 2 is pretty steep. Derek Jeter (at least the old Jeter), Elvis Andrus, Marco Scutaro, Steven Drew, and Jose Reyes are good players, but they aren't really stars. Starlin Castro could join that group, but there aren't too many young SSs worth mentioning across the league. Its just hard to find a passable defensive SS who can hit a bit. If Brignac can hit something like his minor league avarages listed above (.280/.335/.450-ish), that is very good production. If you look at the minor leagues, there are even fewer. Keith Law recently did a revised top-25 prospects in baseball. There wasn't a single SS in the bunch. Same thing with Kevin Goldstien's recent list. The best minor league SS prospects now are guys like Dee Gordon, Grant Green, and Nick Franklin. All three are good prospects, but not elite talents. There just isn't a lot of talent available at the position right now. That's why I like what Jack Z has done in the past two drafts, taking Franklin and Littlewood. Both could be guys who stick at SS and provide above average offensive production. The M's are pretty much screwed at the position for the time being, though. I hope that Gabriel Noriega is just another top prospect who struggles in the Midwest league, and that he rebounds later on. We just don't have anyone in the upper levels who projects as a big league regular. Thus, I wouldn't mind seeing the M's try to pick up a talented guy who's value isn't too high, like Brignac. He could be a valuable player, even if he isn't putting up huge numbers. He plays good defense and has some upside. Thats rare these days. |
| 40. By: rjfrik on 07-10-2010 16:23:45 Agree with you guys that by 2012-13 comes around we will need another middle of order back and an upgrade at SS and 3B. I think one of those upgrades, middle of order bat, will be Rendon. One can hope, at least. Next year's draft is going to be crucial for us. We will be picking in the top three and even if we don't get Rendon we will get a #2 type starting pitcher. With all the assets we currently have on the farm we could easily flip a great pitcher for a great bat by then. And we never know what 2012 FA will be like. With all the money coming off the books then we could easily go buy a bat. Can't wait to see what trades go down in the next month. Come on Lopez, hit the cover off the ball!!!!!!!!! I wish |
| 41. By: StandinPat on 07-10-2010 16:32:16 rj, You really wanna bank on a 2011 draft pick being able to help your team in 2012-13? |
| 42. By: Juan Valdez on 07-10-2010 18:15:55 I appreciate the insight on Brignac. My hesitation with him is primarily about his pedestrian numbers at Triple-A, which makes me wonder if he'll be able to produce in the major leagues at even an average or slightly below-average level. On the other hand, as Jerry pointed out, there seems to be a dearth of offensive talent at shortstop right now, so trying to develop guys like this may be the only option. I do like the lefty bat though. No doubt. |
| 43. By: rjfrik on 07-10-2010 18:20:02 Pat, if it was Rendon, he could help us in 2013, in the same way that Braun and Longoria helped their teams after one year in the minors. He's that type of a player. Mostly wishful thinking. |
| 44. By: Boise M on 07-10-2010 18:25:40 "But the golden age of SSs during the 1990s, with Jeter, A-Rod, and Nomar, seem to be over. Look around the league, and there are very few SSs who are good defensive players and put up good offensive numbers." News flash...PED testing!!! Don't forget Tejada either. |
| 45. By: Jerry on 07-10-2010 19:59:52 Boise, I don't buy the PED argument. If thats the case, why is there so much talent at 2B? Utley, Cano, Kinsler, Pedroia, Phillips, Uggla, etc. You could make the same argument for 3B and C. Those positions were pretty thin 10 years ago, and now are swimming with talent. Why would PEDs effect SS's more than other demanding defensive positions? Sure, offense is down a bit overall, but I think its simplistic to just blame PEDs for it. I think its mostly just random cycles in the game. |
| 46. By: dawgncarolina on 07-10-2010 20:54:25 I don't see any chance we end up with Rendon. No way we're catching the O's for the first pick, and you're not getting him at any other slot. Anyone banking on Rendon in an M's uniform is going to be severely disappointed. |
| 47. By: Chris Crawford on 07-10-2010 21:03:34 Rendon is a pipe dream. There are lots of good prospects in 2011 -- the M's will end up with a really good player, but Rendon isn't realistic -- Orioles are too bad, despite what you've seen tonight. |
| 48. By: rjfrik on 07-10-2010 21:23:36 Youre right Chris. But we trade Banyan and Lopez before the deadline and replace them with Kotchman/Bradley and Tui for the rest of the year and the offense gets weaker. And losing Cliff will lose more then a few wins. You never know this team, the way it's constructed could do a serious tank job. I have a feeling we most likely end up with the number 2 or 3 pick but there's always a chance at number one, even if it's far fetched. |
| 49. By: Chris Crawford on 07-10-2010 21:42:40 Problem is -- what is Cleveland going to do? What if the Nationals trade Dunn or Willingham? The M's are going to bad -- but you never know how bad other teams are going to be. Never the less -- I would say the M's do not have a concern of their pick being protected or not. Where exactly that pick ends up I dont know -- I would say top seven. |
| 50. By: Juan Valdez on 07-10-2010 21:42:41 Is Rendon so good that there's absolutely no chance he falls a few slots? I know that was the case with Strasburg and Harper the last two years, but I don't recall things being quite so clear cut most years. |
| 51. By: Chris Crawford on 07-10-2010 21:50:27 It'd be a huge surprise if Rendon fell -- you cant say for sure because you don't know if he'll get hurt -- but it'd be a shock. |
| 52. By: brockfs1 on 07-11-2010 00:23:15 so i was out golfing today and i just looked and saw Cliff lee only pitched 2 innings! any info as to why? |
| 53. By: Lamda on 07-11-2010 00:55:25 Not sure where you saw that - he pitched a complete game but lost as he gave up 6 runs. Probably shouldn't have rushed him into his start but let him sit around for 2 days and get acclimated. |
| 54. By: brockfs1 on 07-11-2010 01:03:17 good ole espn is what caused that! haha not going there for box scores anymore! haha |
| 55. By: Shawnuel on 07-11-2010 02:52:35 Aside from injuries, I'd say Jimmy Rollins is in that top tier of SS. You are right about the depth at 2B......this season you can add Zobrist, Kelly Johnson and Martin Prado to the list as well. |
| 56. By: marinerforever on 07-11-2010 03:20:51 what is everyone rush to trade branyan i would be more concerned with ridding yourslef of bradley he is by far the worst or the four of smoak saunders branyan bradley ride the first three trade lopez release kotchman eat money trade bradley go after lee again in offseason let the rangers have our second round pick you can have a fromidable team that can win next year thats how big getting smoak was this lineup can win c moore 1b smoak 2nd base josh wilson untill ackley is ready ss jack wilson 3rd figgins lf saunders cf guti rf ichiro dh branyan you already have the pitching if you can resign lee sp felix sp lee sp vargas sp fister sp pineda you also have depth in starting pitching that is devloping that could help mid next year in paxton beaven robles french this is all possible start the campaign to re sign lee |
| 57. By: rjfrik on 07-11-2010 04:58:24 Unfortunately Lee isn't coming back here, we don't have the payroll and NOBODY is taking Bradley. He is owed way too much money. The only guys that have any trade value and are tradable are Lopez, Branyan and Aardsma. There are obviously other guys tradable on the team but those three are the only ones I could see the M's trading. |
| 58. By: VikingArthur on 07-11-2010 06:14:16 Yeah...#56, there is NO CHANCE we resign Cliff Lee. That was a pipe dream. He will get 4 yrs 70+ million. At this point, it is fire sale time. If we can get a guy for Branyan that may help down the road, move him. Same with Lopez, Aardsma, League, etc. Hell, if someone wants to pay a nice premium for Gutierrez, move him. He won't be nearly as valuable to us in 2012-2014 when this team is ready to make its move. I have no doubt with his contract that you could get a nice piece for him. 2011 needs to be the year of the New Mariners. Smoak, Saunders, Ackley, Pineda, Moore, maybe Halman, etc. They all need to play/pitch all season and we'll take our beatings while these guys figure it out. No more nonsense veteran stop gaps. If you can't find a suitable prospect for Branyan, pick up the option and put him at DH and let him mash his 25+ HRs with a .240ish average. |
| 59. By: Uncle Al on 07-11-2010 06:45:31 rjfrik You understand exactly what Bavasi did to this team and there's still enought shit left around to scuttle the 2011 season also. We're already committed for $85M in the 2011 budget and that doesn't include any money for signing Bedard, Aardsma, Lopez, or Branyan. Zduriencik has done a marvelous job and stuck to his plans for rebuilding the M's in spite of the two idiots over him. He is trying to rebuild the ML team as well as the farm which is almost impossible to do but at least he hasn't damaged the farm. They took a lot of chances this year with a smaller budget and everything blew up in their faces. Don't get upset if the same thing happens next year with a small budget. We still have this years trade deadline, the 2011 off season, another draft, and another year for the farm to mature. The farm seems to be pretty well stocked again and that gives Zduriencik more trade chips for 2012. |
| 60. By: Jerry on 07-11-2010 10:38:18 Chris, I was wondering about what you said about Rendon and the likelyhood of him going 1-1 in the draft. While Rendon is the consensus #1 prospect, I had gotten the impression that the talent at the top of the 2011 draft was a lot better than in previous years, without a huge gap between the top 10 guys. Is that a fair assessment? Rendon would be a great fit for the M's, as they could use a big bat with power and plate discipline at 3B. He's exactly the type of guy the M's should be looking for. But it seems like there isn't much separating him from other top college players. George Springer and Jackie Bradley Jr. are both getting glowing reviews this summer. And there are a shitload of elite college pitchers this year, like Matt Purke, Sonny Grey, Gerrit Cole, and Matt Barnes. All those guys have #1 upside. I don't know much about the prep talent, but there will probably be a handful of guys who will get top-5 consideration. Basically, this draft seems like it has 10-12 guys who would have been good enough to go in the top 5 this year. And while Rendon is the consensus top player, I had gotten the impression that he isn't head and shoulders above everyone else. I would like to hear your and Jason's opinion on this. The M's are a near lock to have a top-10 pick next year. This seems like a great draft to be picking in that range. |
| 61. By: The Great Pumpkin on 07-11-2010 11:48:00 Will there be an in-depth scouting report coming on the prospects, I'm particularly interested in Jason's opinion of Smoak. |
| 62. By: Lailoken on 07-11-2010 11:50:19 Anyone see what's happening between Barret Loux & the Diamondbacks? What a fiasco! First, they draft him way above where he's projected to go (presumably for an easy sign) then he fails his physical. If they do sign him maybe they get a better deal but the elbow could be a big risk. If they don't sign him, here's where it gets relevant, the Diamondbacks get the #7 pick in next year's draft which could drop the Mariners a spot depending on how everyone finishes in the standings. |
| 63. By: safecochatter on 07-11-2010 11:56:23 with the 3 ranger players added to the west tenn roster. plus the current talent already there. it would seem that a boat load of talent will be joining pineda at tacoma next year. and it's only a cab ride to safeco. 2011 will be very interesting year indeed. also stumbled across this small piece on nick franklin and his thought on switch hitting. http://midwest.league.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100623&content_id=11486990&vkey=news_l118&fext=.jsp&sid=l118 |
| 64. By: rjfrik on 07-11-2010 13:56:13 Uncle Al, Yep Bavasi put us into the hole but it's nice to see JZ getting us out of it. It doesn't happen overnight but it's happening. I agree that 2011 will be another tough year to swallow, but come 2012 we should all have a lot of optimism. A lot of payroll will be shed, we could arguably bring in a top notch FA or two and the kids will be primed and ready. 2012 could be the start of a very nice run of M's teams. Hopefully we can get Ichiro into the damn Series by 2015 or so. Lailoken, Yeah I noticed that as well. If I'm the Dbacks, I don't sign him. There are much better arms in next years draft and they could get a premiere arm at 7 and of course at where ever there other top 10 pick is. But I honestly don't think their extra pick will bump us. I think the M's get a top 5 pick at worst next year, most likely a top 3. But we will see. |
| 65. By: Chris Crawford on 07-11-2010 16:54:36 Yes -- when Jason gets back from the futures game I believe he will have an in-depth piece on the prospects. Also it looks like we will be podcasting Monday night at 6 pm PST -- we'll talk about the trade, the futures game, and a bunch else -- won't wanna miss that one. 61. Yes, it's a great draft, but Rendon does have a small gap on the rest of the prospects -- it's not like Harper to Machado or Tallion -- but it does exist. |
| 66. By: rjfrik on 07-11-2010 17:12:09 Wow Liddi is batting 4th for the world team and Peguero is batting 5th, both are starting. That's nice to see. Go kids go! |
| 67. By: rjfrik on 07-11-2010 17:40:49 Great first at bat by Peguero, facing arguably the best pitcher in AAA or the minors for that matter, laid off the fast ball down and in, fought off the inside pitch for a foul and then roped a line drive shot to RF. |
| 68. By: baseballman on 07-11-2010 17:53:19 ya it was a great at bat. |
| 69. By: marinerforever on 07-11-2010 20:42:59 al how do you get 85 million for next year who makes money felix 11 brdley10 figgins9 ichiro 17 5million deffered guti 4 jack wilson 5 vargas enters first year arb ardsma enters arb league enters arb those are the only gaurenteed contracts going foward lopez team option branyan mutal option bedard mutal option everyone else on this roster can be replaced on kotchman bard sweeney sean white chad codero are all canidaates to be dfa so not sure how u got to 85 million |
| 70. By: ASUBoyd on 07-11-2010 21:15:44 We have $69.6m committed for next season, to clear that up. Cot's Baseball Contracts website is a great resource. |
| 71. By: Lamda on 07-11-2010 21:19:45 http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tWj271vM8jP83pjeMtNrKog&output=html basically shows what the poster above said - 70mill already guaranteed for next year. Then you take into account the Arbitration numbers, etc and that is where people are coming up with the 80-85mill already set in stone for next year. Now if we could trade Aardsma, etc then that would free up more money but assuming we don't - we'll be sittin around 80mill atleast in guaranteed money for next year. |
| 72. By: ASUBoyd on 07-11-2010 21:30:14 Sure, assuming everyone is offered arbitration. |
| 73. By: rjfrik on 07-11-2010 22:25:38 Well Vargas, Aardsma, League will all be offered arbitration. They will pick up the team option on Lopez, if they don't trade him, because it's so cheap. They will extend Branyan and Bedard. Really we will have to wait till after next year for a lot of the $ to come off the books. |
| 74. By: ASUBoyd on 07-11-2010 22:39:09 Way too early to be talking about what they "will" do - any of those guys could be traded. There will be enough money to add a player or two depending on what is out there. |
| 75. By: Uncle Al on 07-11-2010 23:05:31 Lamda and rjfrik You understand what is going on and there is also another $5M for the Contingency Fund which is about 6% of Salaries and Prorated Bonuses in the M's budget. They are at $85M now and that doesn't count the cost of resigning Branyan and Bedard. On top of that there is about $4M for Aardsma's Arbitration and $4.5M for Lopez's Option. Kotchaman won't be offered Arbitration and they won't exercise Snell's option if it's still valid after his DFA. They are already in deep shit for 2011 and Zduriencik must make more trades to eliminate payroll. It would be nice if he can unload a few players before the trade deadline this year. |
| 76. By: Lamda on 07-12-2010 01:20:34 Al - i'm sure he'll try to be sure. I think if he could trade Bradley it would be good. People jump on the idea and obviously we'd have to pay a ton on the 10.5 he's owed but if we could even save 3-4 mill off that - its money that could be used elsewhere. I think it was the same guy that broke the NYY deal who's saying trades involving the M's and A's seperately are imminent as both clubs are being scouted extensively. Jason could comment on this further as to the validity, but you'd have to think players like Lopez, Aardsma, maybe even League could be on the move before the trade deadline. We won't get a lot for them obviously but that clears payroll for the next year which is still a positive. But you're right Al, we're still screwed for next year. We're really screwed for as long as we got Ichiro and his 18mill salary but I know i'm in the minority on that opinion, lol. |
| 77. By: marinerforever on 07-12-2010 01:42:49 i dont see the point of trading ardasma you will still need a closer next year and have already traded lowe trade lopez save the four million trade bradley eat 6 million and by your numbers that would bring us down to around mid to low 70 millions i would hope branyan is brought back and is far as bedard why would u even worry about him it will be mid august befoe he even hits the mound he isnt making sqaut next year why not offer lee 4 yrs 70 million that would proably only put us at low 90 millions for payroll |
| 78. By: Edman on 07-12-2010 03:42:31 Lee want CC Sabbathia money. He's gonna want a six or seven year deal. He's already said he wants this to be his last contract. Try more like six years, at $140-150 million. Bradley's here, and not going anywhere. There is no quick fix for either the on-field performance, or the easing of financial restraints. Nobody is going to bail Seattle out. |
| 79. By: Uncle Al on 07-12-2010 03:57:29 Edman Nice post. The only thing we have to look forward to is how much Zduriencik can fix between now and the 2012 season. It will be a miracle if he puts a winner together for 2011. |
| 80. By: Jerry on 07-12-2010 09:48:59 I also think its pretty early to be thinking about payroll for next year, for two reasons: First, if Jack Z has showed us anything, its that he's bold when it comes to trades. He has the rest of the season and the offseason to make moves that could be either payroll neutral or even free up money. Things will change between now and next offseason. Some of the major holes, particularly on offense, will likely be addressed through trades. Perhaps even in the next two weeks. Second, does this team really need to be looking to spend money in free agency, even if extra payroll cash was available? I think this is a rebuilding club. They'll use the rest of the year to break in guys like Smoak, Saunders, Moore, and probably Pineda. They also need to see if Bedard can come back from injury and perhaps help the team in 2011 (which I view as a huge issue that people haven't been talking about much). If Lopez gets dealt, then Tui could see a lot of playing time this year. Further, a great deal of the talent in the organization is at AA right now. Dustin Ackley, Carlos Triunfel, Blake Beavan, Carlos Peguero, and Alex Liddi are all in AA now, and could be up to AAA this year. Guys like Nick Hill, Josh Fields, Anthony Varvaro, Mauricio Robles, and Steven Hensley could get looks this year. All four could become major contributors to the pen by late this season or next season. Given all this talent in the organization at AA and AAA, I am wondering if spending big bucks in free agency is even worth it. I think it would make sense for the M's to move Branyan and Lopez now, getting as much back for them as possible. Then, finish the year with this lineup: C Moore 1B Smoak 2B Figgins 3B Tuiasosopo SS Wilson LF Saunders CF Gutierrez RF Ichiro DH Bradley Rotation: Felix, Fister, Vargas, RR-S, Bedard/Pineda Then just see how things go. A few of those guys will show they aren't legit options. A few may stick. And the M's may get lucky and find a gem. By September, they could think about giving Ackley at shot at 2B and moving Figgins back to 3B. They can also get Pineda regular starts, perhaps moving RR-S back to the pen. The point is, I think the rest of the season and next year should be mostly about evaluation. They need to see what they have with young players. Just hypothetically, if the M's did have $25-30 million in free payroll, where would you spend it? If Saunders works out (and I like his chances, personally), the OF is full. The positions that are in flux are SS, 2B, and 3B. Figgins will play one of those positions, but the M's shouldn't be looking to block Ackley. Catcher is another spot where the M's need to improve, but I think its too early to give up on Moore. And Johnson is a servicable backup. That leaves SS, but there aren't any interesting SS's that might be available in free agency. The rotation is another place where they could potentially spend money, but I don't think throwing down tons of cash for an elite guy is wise. With Felix, Vargas, and Fister, we have three spots sorted out. Pineda could fill the fourth spot. That leaves one hole in the rotation. Given where the organization is right now, I think it makes more sense to go with an internal candidate, plus perhaps an injury discount guy like Bedard or Rich Harden, as opposed to signing a guy to a long term contract. Pitcher contracts are huge risks. Since this team is young and still developing, I think its wise to hold off on that type of signing. At least until the 2011-12 offseason. So, I guess my whole point in this diatribe is that payroll isn't really an issue. I could see the M's actually lowering payroll a bit next year and it not really effecting things much. Its probably in the best interest of the organization to use this year and next year to break in young players and build a foundation. Save that cash for 2011-12, when more money will come off the books and the team will be in a better position to maximize the value of free agent spending. |
| 81. By: masonb on 07-12-2010 10:31:34 Is there any truth to this rumor of teams being unwilling to try and trade with Seattle because of the way the whole Cliff Lee to the Yankees trade was made. I really think the New York media is blowing this out of proportion. My understanding was that Adams had some problems, Jack asked for different players at which point Cashman balked and Texas entered the picture. If you ask me, the Yankees are the ones who didn't get it done and should be blamed for this. Instead, there's a lot of bitching going on about how the Mariners are "unethical" Just want to get someone's take on that |
| 82. By: Chris Crawford on 07-12-2010 10:41:06 There were a couple of front-office guys who weren't happy with the way the M's made the trade, but the majority understood this is the way baseball works. They may be a little sour for now -- if the M's put someone on the market the Yankees wanted they'd forget in a heartbeat. |
| 83. By: Edman on 07-12-2010 11:13:17 masonb, there are a lot of front-office people who don't appreciate that the Yankees usually get whatever they want. I don't see that anyone has stopped dealing with them. The Yankees had every chance to better Texas' offer, they chose not to. If they really wanted Lee, they could have stepped up, just like Texas did. GMs don't have the luxury to harbor a grudge. They have to be open to all deals. Their job is to make their team better, not try and send a message of morality to other GMs. Jack's job is to get the best deal possible for his team. The Yankees feel slighted.....too bad. Do you own a car, because you agree in principle with a car salesman? Until you sign the paper, it's all talk. I can't imagine ANY other GM being upset that the Yankees didn't get Lee. They'd be lying their asses off, if they did. They have used their financial clout without a thought about what it does to the structure of baseball. Nobody's gonna cry for them, nor should they. |
| 84. By: Uncle Al on 07-12-2010 11:20:09 Jerry If you tack on $8M for Bedard, $5M for Branyan, $4.5M for Lopez, $4M for Aardsma, less about $1.5M for replacement players, your budget now sits at $105M which is going to be at least $10M over budget. Their budget for this year was close to $95M and probably won't be anymore next year with less attendance. At least two players need to be traded to make budget in 2011 and my 25 man roster isn't going to be much different than yours. This does tell us that the only place for an upgrade is to get rid of Bradley and his $12M salary and that just isn't going to happen and they still have to get rid of another $10M to make budget. There just isn't any wiggle room at all for 2011 so we can only watch and see what Trader Jack can do for the rest of this year and 2011. It's pretty obvious what Jack and his crew have done and everything points to 2012 where he can add a couple of FA's as well as finaly being able to use his farm system. I still can't get over what he has done for this farm system in the short time he's been here. Him and the team he's put together have done a brilliant job. We'll know shortly how well we've done in the International market this year and we still have another month to see if we can sign our 2, 3, 4, 8, 11,14, and 16th draft picks. All of them ar HS players except for Paxton and Blash. 32 of this years 50 have already been signed. I only disagree with you a little in that payroll is an issue and I don't think it can be lowered without some shrewd trades where we acquire lower priced long-term players in trades which will hurt the farm system because that will be expensive in terms of losing trade chips. |
| 85. By: Edman on 07-12-2010 11:31:23 $8 million for Bedard? Come on, Uncle Al, he'd have to pitch like the next coming of Cy Young to get the M's to agree to that. No way that's going to happen. Branyan, probably. Lopez maybe. Aardsma, probably. Nobody knows what Jack is going to do. And masonb, just one added thought. The story about the M's upsetting the Yankees, comes from a New Yort Post writer, who does not in fact know that's the case, he's speculating. There is a feeling in New York that anyone the Yankees want, is theirs. The expectation that having a deal "in principle" prohibiting Jack from taking phone calls, is ridiculous. You shouldn't shop around online for a better deal, because you said, "Sounds good to me" to a salesman? |
| 86. By: marinerforever on 07-12-2010 11:42:53 At this point there is no way that i sign bedard for net year if we are not aiming to be competive or go sign anyone in free agency then just roll sp felix sp vargas sp fister sp pineda sp french pauley rowand smith b attle it out for the last spot and as fas as postion players trade lopez play tui the rest of the year and move figgins there when ackley is ready which we be sooner rather than later |
| 87. By: Uncle Al on 07-12-2010 11:58:00 Edman That assumes he's taken at his option and, since this is all hypothetical, he could pitch his ass off and get $16M next year as it is a mutual option. His arm could fall off this year and you can forget his name and he doesn't cost you anything. So use any amount you want. At least I've accounted for him in the worst case. I have him at -0- in my budget presently because I have no idea what he is going to cost as of today. I've got $85M in post #75 plus Branyan and Bedard which should come in near $95M by the time all is said and done and that tells the story about next year. |
| 88. By: rjfrik on 07-12-2010 14:47:22 Bedard won't get anywhere close to 8 million in less it's in the form of incentives. Bedard will sign a deal very similar to this years deal. Somewhere around a 2 million dollar base with a lot of incentives. He's been injured all year and looks like he isn't coming back until August. He has a history of injuries and will not command big money from the M's or any other MLB team. The other thing you guys have to realize is who is out there in FA after this year. Not much. We have a 1b of the future so we won't be going after Dunn, who is arguably the big bat on the market. All the middle infield options are blah. We are set in the OF. There's a couple of pitchers but why would we bury ourselves in a bloated pitching contract when we have so many young pitchers busting onto the scene in are own organization. This is a rebuilding project until 2012. That's just the way it is, barring some huge trade for a middle of the order bat. I don't see that happening. |
| 89. By: southpaw360 on 07-12-2010 15:16:18 I've heard the M's are considering more trades before the deadline. Is Branyan available? If so, I would think Colorado could be a place for him because of the back injury to Helton. Would Chris Nelson 2b/ss and Franklin Moarales LHP make sense for Branyan +? Nelson is blocked in Colorado and would be a nice buy low for the M's. Morales needs a change of scenery in my opinion as well. But, any left handed pitcher that throws in the mid 90's deserves a shot to me. He could be another Matt Thornton if he puts it all together. |
| 90. By: Marco on 08-25-2010 05:38:34 32. By: bobbysee1 on 07-10-2010 13:14:03 Blowgun I'm with you. Smoak is better than Davis. Heck, they're not even in the same league. Get it...........? So, to which League Smoak belongs now ? |
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