Prospect Insider - GBU -- June 13, 2010

GBU -- June 13, 2010

By Chris Crawford

By 06-13-2010

Since the last GBU -- the draft happened. And the Mariners lost a lot of games.

The Good
Cliff Lee, Felix for two of three starts and Ichiro. Take away those three, not a whole heck of a lot to celebrate the last ten days.

Down on the farm though, comment lightning rod Alex Liddi has been playing very well. The 'third-basemen' is slugging .707 for the month of June and has an OPS of 1.197. Liddi has some serious flaws, and will need a drastic improvement to stay at third-base -- but the results of the last three weeks have been encouraging.

The Bad
The bullpen has given up 42 runs in their last 37 innings. Sean White's the scapegoat -- but this entire bullpen is incompetent right now.

While Nick Franklin continues to hit, and put up solid numbers in Clinton, Gabriel Noriega continues to struggle. Noriega is a switch-hitter, and has been amazingly awful from both sides of the plate (.604 OPS from the right-side, .587 from the left). The M's new that there were going to be struggles -- but I don’t think they anticipated he would be completely man-handled by A ball pitching.

The Ugly
The Baltimore Orioles -- because it's going to take a lot of effort to catch them for pick one in the 2011 draft.

Seriously, this year is over. Seattle has had a lot of bad luck, but hasn't played well for a continuous stretch all year. I think we all knew that it was going to be a long battle after the mess Bill Bavasi left -- but 2009 gave us some optimism. Even those with the most optimistic attitude are going to have to place hope in next year, because the 2010 Mariner post-season chances have gone kaput.

gbu----june-13,-2010

Comments
The following 13 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: littlelinny6 on 06-13-2010 18:30:44
Barring some huge trade or drastic roster moves which nets us 2-3 WAR players a multiple positions I don't see the M's being any better in 2011. I think 2012 is when we should actually start to expect the team to be +.500 and compete in the division. At that time hopefully Paxton and Pineda will be in the rotation and Ackley will be starting at 2B. Until then we are probably in for another 200+ games of hard to watch M's baseball.

2. By: Marlin Man on 06-13-2010 19:28:44
Jason/Chris- or anyone?

What has happened to Fister- tired (dead) arm only- or other injury- I have been unable to find anything out in print anywhere

thanks in advance

M.M.

3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-13-2010 20:04:48
Fister is on the DL with a sore right shoulder. It's not expected to be long term.

4. By: Uncle Al on 06-13-2010 23:41:06
littlelinny6
I'm not very optomistic about 2011 either they've got about $7M in sunk costs for Silva and Betancourt. Still have a $12M contract for Bradley, $9M for Figgins, $5M for Wilson, and a $4.5M option on Lopez, and about $4M in arbitration for Aardsma to deal with. Kotchman and Snell are gone with those dollar figures. With a $90M budget in 2011, There's no money to bring in one good FA W/O doing something with Bradley, Figgins, Wilson, Lopez, or Aardsma as they already have $88M committed and can't just DFA Lopez or Aardsma. If Howard and Chuck continue to interfere, it won't make any difference anyway. At least Griffey is finally gone.
Jason
I guess it's pointless to get into this now until the trade deadline has passed and we see what draft picks and IFA are signed through August. I hate to see Lee go but I didn't think they'd have the money to sign him long-term anyway as Bavasi killed this organization through the 2011 season with his stupidity. The 2012 season will be the first year that Zduriencik has the ability to spend his budget the way he sees fit. The farm system must produce something for him by then.

5. By: Edman on 06-14-2010 12:34:20
The M's budget is hamstringed, both this year, and next year. Unless Bradley and Jack Wilson get hot has hellfire, nobody's going to take on their salary. Figgens might be moveable, but he's still too valuable. Lopez is staying because Seattle values defense, and there isn't another player out there who will come in at or near what he'll be making.

Aardsma might be moveable, but he's not going to bring back any real help. Kotchman and Snell have virtually no value.

Realistically, there isn't likely to be much help from the farm, even next season. While we'd all love Ackley to be in Seattle, he may end up in LF, not at second.

All that said, Jack is in a very good position with his demands for Lee. He has a rebuilding club. To get a top five pick in next year's draft, along with two additional draft picks, if he signs elsewhere, is of great value. With draft picks, you can get talent that the organization needs to be strong in 1012 and beyond.

Thus, if a team wants Lee, they're going to have to do better than what Milwaulkee got for Sabbathia. I'd have to believe that Jack is going to stand on a "Make my team healthy, soon, or I'll take the draft picks." That kind of scenario probably won't play out until a Boston or New York see that they might not make the playoffs, without an added boost. The trade deadline is probably where that decision gets made.

Next year will probably be a non-playoff year. But, it shouldn't be nearly as bad as this year. There were a lot of performances below their major league averages. Chances of that repeating, aren't very likely. A few "better" free agent acquisitions certainly could make them competative. And, not falling under the belief that defense by itself makes teams better. Balance makes teams better. The more balanced you are, the better your team will be.

6. By: StandinPat on 06-14-2010 13:22:06
"not falling under the belief that defense by itself makes teams better"

Who's belief was that? Pretty sure Z & Co simply saw Defense as an undervalued skillset and the easiest way to improve this team given its limited resources. Jack has spoke at ends about how much he wants a couple of 30hr bats to stick in the middle of this lineup, but how cost prohibitive it is to go out and get.

7. By: Edman on 06-14-2010 13:27:57
I have no idea what Jack's belief system is, but there certainly isn't much doubt that he valued Kotchman's defensive prowess. Granted, I think he has some value, if he can get his average up around .250 with gap power. And, that's probably something like what Jack expected. This club would be miles ahead, with an average defender with power and an average above .250, with an OBP of at least .325.

8. By: Edman on 06-14-2010 14:58:01
Any word on drafee signings? With Everett starting on Friday, I would think some of them will be from this draft.

9. By: randallball on 06-14-2010 15:01:11
Tony Butler - of the Erik Bedard Trade fame - just released by the O's.

10. By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-14-2010 15:35:36
Ed,

Pryor signed over the weekend, and he will be on Everett's roster, but so far he is the only prominent pick to have signed. A few of the late-round guys are also on the roster, which we will have posted later today.

11. By: randallball on 06-14-2010 16:09:10
By: randallball on 05-11-2010 17:22:14
"Another wild left turn here, but what would it take to get the Indy kid from the Sox - Daniel Nava?

I think he is under team control for like 4 more years, even though he is 27 now, because he went the Indy route. I don't recall him being rated as even one of their top 50 prospects, but he just seems to rake, wherever he is.

Not saying he is the answer, just an interesting case."

4-8, Slam, 2 2B in 2 ML games for the Sox.

12. By: Edman on 06-14-2010 16:12:51
Thanks Jason. I'm excited to see Pryor.

13. By: roundbridge on 06-18-2010 11:35:45
any thoughts on the recent signing of Eddy Esteve-Martinez. seems like he was a decent prospect with SF. A one-time Mariner draftee. does he have a chance?

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