Prospect Insider - GBU -- June 29th, 2010
GBU -- June 29th, 2010

By Chris CrawfordBy 06-29-2010

I know everyone is sad that inter-league play is over, but now the M's have to play real baseball teams (take that, NL-Central)

The Good
As I sat in a 90-plus degree stadium with absolutely no air ventilation, I did receive a breath of fresh air when I talked to an NL-Central scout about Michael Saunders. “No, the results aren’t exactly awe-inspiring, but the approach has been so much better than last year, he’s going to be a good one I think” the scout told me. It’s tough to be real excited about a .656 OPS, but that only tells half the story. He’s still only 23, and 45 percent of hits are of the extra-base variety. Just something to keep in mind.

Can’t do much better for your first two starts in AAA than Michael Pineda did. Twelve innings pitched, three runs, and a 16/4 strikeout to walk ratio. Jason and I talked about on the podcast that the promotion for the 21 year old was likely a chance to challenge Pineda. So far challenge = not much of one at all.

The Bad
Jose Lopez -- this isn’t a whole lot of fun anymore. It’s two days from July, and Lopez is slugging under .300 vs. right-handed pitching. In 2008 and 2009, Lopez hit a combined 85 doubles. This year -- 12. Almost all of Jose Lopez value comes from his power, and this year its non-existent.

It’s important to remember with Dan Cortes that he was the return for Yuniesky Betancourt -- so they literally could have gotten just enough cash to have a free Whopper night at the stadium and it would have been good value . With that being said -- Cortes doesn’t look like he’s helping the organization anytime soon. The right-hander has missed bats at an ok rate (53 K’s in 56 innings) but his command has been terrible (35 walks) and that is including a 14 inning stretch where he magically didn’t walk anyone. The 23 year-old isn’t taking a starting rotation spot from anyone right now so the experiment will probably continue -- but I’d be stunned to see Cortes ever in the M’s rotation.

The Ugly
For the first time in the GBU long history (yes, five or so does constitute a long history) I can't think of anything all that ugly. So I'm leaving this one to you -- we're almost at the exact half-way point -- what has made you guys cringe? The catching? The bullpen? Dave Sims over-rated hats? Fire away!



gbu----june-29th,-2010

Comments
The following 45 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1.  By: Rudolf on 06-29-2010 12:37:53
How about that Everett roster? Yawn.

2.  By: safecochatter on 06-29-2010 12:58:45
the m's infield..the most punchless infield in mlb.a total of 9 homeruns combined,including both wilsons. PEEEE...U!

3.  By: sg9207 on 06-29-2010 13:04:59
The hypothetical trade offers for Lee have been pretty ugly including the gem:

"Again, I don’t believe the Mets should have to overpay for what essentially will be a rental. Thole and a pitching prospect (i.e. Jeurys Familia) should be more than enough."

http://nybaseballdigest.com/?p=26731

4.  By: shemberry on 06-29-2010 16:09:57
Jason,

Do you think the DFA of Alonzo and the Mets signing of M. Barrett could be a signal that the M's are going to send Lee to the Mets? Possibly in the next 24 hours?

5.  By: shemberry on 06-29-2010 16:11:03
Sorry, Alfonzo.

6.  By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-29-2010 16:17:48
Don't you think Alfonzo was DFA'd to make room for Bard?

I don't think there is anything to either move. Barrett won't even be ready for the big leagues until maybe the first of August.

That doesn't mean there isn't a deal going down within hours, but these moves have nothing to do with it.

7.  By: shemberry on 06-29-2010 16:24:16
I know it seems to be for Bard, it just seemed interesting to see the two moves right next to each other on mlbtraderumors. There seems to be a lot of buzz about the M's sending Lee to the Mets.

8.  By: littlelinny6 on 06-29-2010 16:38:41
Jason,
Speaking of the Mets Baker floated the idea of a package of Pagan + Thole+ low level SP--is this any good? It seems pagan would instantly be a better LF than Saunders. What do you make of Thole? How does he compare to Moore? Thanks.

9.  By: Edman on 06-29-2010 17:21:48
Bard > Alfonzo, that's not hard. Bard is a more consistant hitter, who can swing from both sides of the plate. That anyone would read any more into that is amazing.

10.  By: Chris Crawford on 06-29-2010 17:22:16
Linn, read this http://prospectinsider.com/view/the-cliff-lee-contenders-and-their-assets/

11.  By: Blowgun7 on 06-29-2010 17:28:48
That package is pure trash.

I don't know how you can do a deal with the Mets unless Flores or Mejia headline the package.

If they aren't going to give something like Flores, Tejada, some toss-ins, I see no point in dealing with them.

12.  By: randallball on 06-29-2010 17:37:31
I like Pagan, but I'd like him (or Fernando Martinez) a lot more if they didn't play the OF.

I personally think that Saunders is really making strides at the dish, and obviously Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro have the other 2 OF spots locked up. Right now Pagan is better than Saunders, and Martinez's ceiling is likely a little higher (considering age/competition, etc.), but I don't think that LF is going to be the giant gaping hole that it has been in the past now that Saunders seems to be "getting it".

13.  By: safecochatter on 06-29-2010 18:07:13
buster at espn just tweeted..multiple evaluators say tejada "not" good enough to center the package around for lee,but flores "is".
if i read jason's write up right,woundn't havens make a good piece too?

14.  By: shemberry on 06-29-2010 18:20:28
Edman,

Of course Bard is better than Alfonzo. That said, there are rumors today that the Mets are pushing hard to get Lee and that Thole would be part of the deal. On the same day, the M's DFA a catcher, yes I know Bard came up, and the Mets signed a veteran catcher.

It isn't "reading too much into it" to ask Jason if this might have something to do with a potential deal.

Don't be a jerk.

15.  By: rocketdawg31 on 06-29-2010 18:21:50

Saunders needs 400+ ABs in left and center. It's evaluation-of-his-future time right now, he needs those ABs to do it.

Flores or Mejia-caliber talents (and yes, I know Mejia's hurt right now) have to headline a deal, otherwise uh-uh to the Mets.

Havens is a decent piece, but he's not a headliner.

And if I'm Jack Zduriencik, I'm lukewarm at very best on Josh Thole.

16.  By: StandinPat on 06-29-2010 18:59:57
Does Wak realize he continually bats three lesser hitters ahead of Saunders? Why he feels Rob Johnson deserves to hit in front of anyone is just beyond me.

17.  By: bavasisabum on 06-29-2010 19:02:18
How down is the M's FO on Adam Moore? It seems like every trade proposal being mentioned for Lee involve a catching prospect. It seems like there are bigger holes to fill than catcher (First). I just be a Moore homer but it seems way to soon to give up on a guy who knock in 100 runs a couple years ago.

18.  By: Rudolf on 06-29-2010 20:54:39
Anyone catch the subtext in Cliff Lee's postgame interview? There's no way he's resigning in Seattle.

Paraphrasing... 'I enjoy anytime I pitch in front of a large crowd... and the fans know when to cheer. NY fans don't need a teleprompter to tell them when to cheer. They know why they're cheering.'

Even if the money were in Seattle and the team were playing better ball, why would a super competitive guy like Lee want to play in front of our home crowds when there are fans in Chicago and NY who make a ballgame an experience. I wonder how many M's fans took notes during the Cubs series. Cubs fans know how to get into the game. NY fans know how and when to cheer.

Someday, right?

19.  By: Jackson on 06-29-2010 20:56:25
Considering the names being thrown around are coming from outside the organization, I don't think it says anything about the Mariners front office.

20.  By: Rudolf on 06-29-2010 21:02:02
Anyone catch the subtext in Cliff Lee's postgame interview? There's no way he's resigning in Seattle.

Paraphrasing... 'I enjoy anytime I pitch in front of a large crowd... and the fans know when to cheer. NY fans don't need a teleprompter to tell them when to cheer. They know why they're cheering.'

Even if the money were in Seattle and the team were playing better ball, why would a super competitive guy like Lee want to play in front of our home crowds when there are fans in Chicago and NY who make a ballgame an experience. I wonder how many M's fans took notes during the Cubs series. Cubs fans know how to get into the game. NY fans know how and when to cheer.

Someday, right?

21.  By: Blowgun7 on 06-29-2010 21:17:25
The Safeco crowds are an embarrassment in regards to getting into the game and making noise.

We all knew Lee wasn't coming back to Seattle, so it doesn't much matter that he recognizes that our ballpark has a lame atmosphere.

22.  By: FelixElRey on 06-29-2010 21:19:08
I live near Chicago, and believe me, we do not want Mariner fans to be more like Cubs fans. Cubs fans are clueless drunks who don't know a damn thing about baseball...generally speaking of course.

23.  By: rocketdawg31 on 06-29-2010 21:37:52

I caught the third game between the M's and Cubs, and have to agree with FelixElRey- had the misfortune of a couple twits yell their lungs out right above me.

My favorite line: "Come on, Soto!" and then a moment later: "Isn't he one of our good players?"

24.  By: rocketdawg31 on 06-29-2010 21:40:19

The real punchline: Koyie Hill was playing that game at catcher!

25.  By: Rudolf on 06-29-2010 22:25:07
Perhaps Cubs fans are not the best example-- The two guys and a girl trio behind me were arrested for supplying the underage girl with beers. Nevertheless, the fans got out of their seats and expressed emotion all throughout the game-- in unison-- and it was appropriate, and not just during the obvious cheering moments. During Cliff Lee's CG victory it felt like I was at a Cubs game.

Drunkards or not, they owned us and I wished we were them.

It hurt to hear Lee disparage our "fan situation" tonight, and got me wondering about our reputation with the players around the league.

26.  By: Chris Crawford on 06-29-2010 22:44:14
I totally forgot, this shoulda been the ugly Read this drivel.

27.  By: Lailoken on 06-29-2010 23:19:21
All this NYM for Lee fervor has a stink of media intervention. Still, I'll read anything involving baseball. The Martinez or Thole centering a deal is a bit off-key. If the M's are going to go for an OF bat who can unseat Saunders he better be up to snuff. Ackley is no shoo-in to stick at 2B. While Moore could be a valuable, under cost-control player at a prime position we need more than one catcher. Rob Johnson... not so much. I'd love to hear more trade rumors involving a SS. The best thing that could happen for the Mariners this offseason is Jack Wilson deciding to follow through on his hammie-inspired thoughts of retirement. SS, CF, & C are the positions that have the most value. DTFT, Moore, & Franklin are a good start but more horses are needed in the stable. The thought of Shelby Miller being the center of a deal is appealing though, he could be a frontline starter. If Meija can't show he's healthy in time the Mets better ante up to offer more value than deals centered around Ramos or Miller.

P.S. OMG that Hyphen article made me laugh.

28.  By: Lailoken on 06-29-2010 23:19:45
All this NYM for Lee fervor has a stink of media intervention. Still, I'll read anything involving baseball. The Martinez or Thole centering a deal is a bit off-key. If the M's are going to go for an OF bat who can unseat Saunders he better be up to snuff. Ackley is no shoo-in to stick at 2B. While Moore could be a valuable, under cost-control player at a prime position we need more than one catcher. Rob Johnson... not so much. I'd love to hear more trade rumors involving a SS. The best thing that could happen for the Mariners this offseason is Jack Wilson deciding to follow through on his hammie-inspired thoughts of retirement. SS, CF, & C are the positions that have the most value. DTFT, Moore, & Franklin are a good start but more horses are needed in the stable. The thought of Shelby Miller being the center of a deal is appealing though, he could be a frontline starter. If Meija can't show he's healthy in time the Mets better ante up to offer more value than deals centered around Ramos or Miller.

P.S. OMG that Hyphen article made me laugh.

29.  By: rocketdawg31 on 06-29-2010 23:24:46

@#26: Yeah. That's drivel.

About Mariners fans and how we're perceived?

I could write a thousand words with little effort about what I think critics of Seattle can go do with their opinions- but I'll keep it classy here.

I can, however, think of a lot of fan bases that do more egregious things- and consciously so- than wait to be summoned to make noise. And after a near-decade of general mediocrity or worse, I opine that maybe it's not the Seattle fan base's fault for that.

Bottom line? I'd rather be surrounded by Mariner fans who know what quality is and isn't, and cheer accordingly...than call myself a fan of any other team and have to endure the blowhards and outright misanthropic jerks in the name of "passion".

NOTE: I actually don't know if what Lee said was a direct slam at Seattle. It could be construed so easily enough. But he also could've had others in mind when he mentioned the fan-base need for a teleprompter.



30.  By: Edman on 06-29-2010 23:26:17
Sherm. I think it's fair to reason out that if a trade was in the works for Thole, they'd have kept Alfonzo and not worry about bringing up Bard. Then they'd have to DFA both players, rather than one. What would the point be?

I'm sorry if I was a little harsh, but people are taking little events, and trying scoop some kind of deal. Jack is a smart card player, and he's not going to tip anything that he doesn't have to.

As Baker pointed out, Jack made it clear that he's willing to take the two extra draft picks next year, if he doesn't get a deal he wants. He showed enough of his hand to say he's not bluffing. But, he's not going to make moves until he has to.

31.  By: Jason A. Churchill on 06-30-2010 01:22:32
Lee was answering a question in the postgame interview. I heard it live and not even for one second did I think Lee was slamming Seattle in the slightest.

The dude pitched in Cleveland, for crying out loud. Seattle is Heaven in comparison, and he's said nothing but good things even behind closed doors and off the air and out of print.



32.  By: Lamda on 06-30-2010 01:49:58
I went to the Tom Petty concert when he was here at the Gorge. The concert was awesome, once you got past the pot smoke which isn't my thing. I mistakenly was hoping he'd sing some of his own stuff but then remembered - it was a tom petty and the heartbreakers so he only sung their stuff.
Onto Lee - too bad we can't keep him but I know it obviously makes all the sense in the world to trade him. We got no money this offseason and a lot of holes to fill.

33.  By: rjfrik on 06-30-2010 04:25:00
Unless the Mets are offering Flores, Martinez and either Thole or Havner then it's a no deal in my opinion. The deal starts and ends with both Flores and Martinez, If they aren't both included then no deal.

34.  By: 01v-dubs on 06-30-2010 05:29:42
I can't imagine Z accepting a deal from the Mets with Thole as the headliner, he's a throw in at best as a below average defender with below average power, the only upside is good plate skills. I'd rather stick with Moore.

I hope Texas' interest is real, and I hope it's driving up the price for other clubs given the unbelievable depth of their system. From Texas I'd be happy with a package of Profar, Font, and maybe Davis and Salty as reclamation projects. From the Mets I would say that either Flores or Mejia has to be included, because nobody else in their system can match the upside of anyone Texas could end up offering. If we were able to get Profar from Texas, we'd suddenly be busting with SS prospects in Franklin, Littlewood (assuming he signs) and Triunfel if you count him.

35.  By: Rudolf on 06-30-2010 07:02:45
Who do you think he was referring to, Jason? Why would he just offer up some random opinion about good fans in NY vs. hypothetical fans and their teleprompter somewhere else? It sure sounded like he was contrasting NY fans with Seattle fans.

During his previous two CG victories-- which I've fortunately attended-- the joint was half asleep. That could be fresh in his mind. I'll agree that he didn't come right out and say it.

36.  By: Edman on 06-30-2010 11:21:12
One blue chip prospect > Three mid-level prospects.

One first round draft pick + one supplemental first round draft pick > Three mid-level prospects.

With draft picks, Jack can select the talent he wants.

No blue chip prospect = no Cliff Lee trade, IMHO.

37.  By: Edman on 06-30-2010 11:28:04
I'm not Jason, but I think he was talking about the intensity of the game, and playing in front of that kind of crowd. I don't think it was an slam on Seattle at all. It was stating the obvious.

38.  By: PositivePaul on 06-30-2010 11:33:30
Right -- what Jason said about Lee -- he most definitely wasn't so much slamming Seattle as he was praising the Yankees' massive fanbase and their energy/enthusiasm. From all I've deciphered he LOVES Seattle and its fans.

Still, I do want to address this further.

"...why would a super competitive guy like Lee want to play in front of our home crowds when there are fans in Chicago and NY who make a ballgame an experience. I wonder how many M's fans took notes during the Cubs series. Cubs fans know how to get into the game. NY fans know how and when to cheer.
..."

"The Safeco crowds are an embarrassment in regards to getting into the game and making noise."

A HUGE part of the lame, quiet fanbase in Seattle is because of the crowd management there. Remember the whole "YANKEES SUCK!" t-shirt fiasco? The ushers are sooooo terrible about telling people to be quiet, when they're booing people or the like. Yeah, the M's haven't exactly given much for even the hardcore fans to cheer about on the field. But the M's purposefully and very clearly control what people can/can't cheer about in the stadium.

Just once I want to lead the crowd into a "BULL-SHIT BULL-SHIT!" chant at a blown call by the ump. Passing on proper, comedic heckling from father to son is as much a part of the game, too, as anything...



39.  By: jgstecker on 06-30-2010 12:13:15
At first glance, Wilmer Flores looks an awful lot like Carlos Triunfel. And they both seem a lot like Jose Lopez at that age too. Not the best fit for Seattle?

40.  By: Blowgun7 on 06-30-2010 12:15:04
I think Flores has a lot more power potential than Triunfel does.

41.  By: jd7979 on 06-30-2010 12:59:16
Jason or Chris,

Any chance the Mets would offer a package centered on Meija and Floes? Is this a good deal? Would you take the offer if you were GM?

42.  By: StandinPat on 06-30-2010 13:02:38
I'm not entertaining any deal with the Mets unless Dickey is involved...

43.  By: bcsimons on 06-30-2010 13:31:05
Jason or Chris,

I just read Joel Sherman's New York Post article on Lee, the mets, and the yankees he proposes that the Yankees send us Montero, David Adams, and either Hector Noesi or Ivan Nova. Is it just me or would we be crazy to reject this? Is it really plausible the Yankees do this?

http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/hardball/up_the_cliff_lee_edition_bz4TWCjJ4K2sd2wlGyGlKM

Thanks

44.  By: rocketdawg31 on 06-30-2010 14:21:18
I just read Joel Sherman's New York Post article on Lee, the mets, and the yankees he proposes that the Yankees send us Montero, David Adams, and either Hector Noesi or Ivan Nova. Is it just me or would we be crazy to reject this? Is it really plausible the Yankees do this?

My thought on this came as soon as you mentioned "New York Post"- don't believe anything (actual insider tidbits or proposals from themselves) relayed by the media. It's a pure shuck and jive game among GMs right now, that for the most part the media is not in on. And The NY Post has to give something for their readers to read. Especially in just about the most competitive media outlet city there is.

You use the word "plausible". Could it be done? It's in the realm of "maybe". Would we be crazy to reject it? Depends on external factors. If it's by far and away the best deal out there and other teams are not budging or even offering anything, sure. Might well make sense to take it.

Is this deal likely to be offered? No, I don't think so. The days of the Yankees going against themselves and outbidding the universe in trade scenarios are over with, for the most part.

And I for one am thinking the Yankees don't exactly need Lee, I can't see them offering something absolutely premium merely to add to one of the better rotations in the game.

And I'm also not really all that hot on acquiring Montero in any case. He seems to be a bit one-dimensional, with no chance to remain at catcher...and counter to the kind of player Zduriencik likes to acquire.

I just don't think there's any real "want-need" match with the Yankees. Of course, I could be wrong.


45.  By: StandinPat on 06-30-2010 18:10:08
"He seems to be a bit one-dimensional"

Well that dimension is one that the M's are sorely lacking, and Montero just so happens to be really good at it.

Also, I don't think anyone is looking at him as a catcher long-term, and he's still a bluechipper even at 1B/DH.

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