Prospect Insider - GBU -- Minor League edition I

GBU -- Minor League edition I

By Chris Crawford

By 10-10-2010

It's been quite a while since the Tacoma Rainiers took the field for the AAA championship, but this is Prospect Insider, and the minor-league season is never too far out of our minds. Time to take a look at some of the good, bad, and ugly of this minor-league season -- leaving the short-season players out for this edition.

The Good
If you remember last week, the question was how much time do you have to talk about the ugly for the Seattle Mariners. This week though, there's going to be some awesome performances left out for the same reason -- there's just so much to be happy about.

Last week it started with Felix Hernandez, this week it begins with his probable rotation partner in 2011, Michael Pineda. Pineda was outstanding all season, showing about as much improvement in his secondary pitches as humanly possible while still showing plus velocity and the ability to keep said velocity through the fifth inning and beyond. Hernandez and Pineda should be a special combination for many years to come.

If you played in High Desert this year and didn't have the last name Almonte on your back -- you probably belonged on the good list, but Rich Poythress, Kyle Seager, Johermyn Chavez were the icing on the cake. There's no debating that the park helps considerably, but you can only penalize a player so much when they put up those kind of numbers. Seager's season in particular stands out, putting up as good of numbers in baseball after a so-so April. This trio still has a considerable amount of questions moving forward, but a positive step was certainly taken in 2011.

Last, but certainly not least, Nick Franklin and Dustin Ackley. They probably don't belong grouped together, but it's the potential of seeing these two up the middle for the Seattle Mariners that should be the most exciting. Ackley got off to a well documented slow start -- and Franklin had a rough go of it for a while after the Midwest-League all-star game -- but the overall production from the two was nothing short of outstanding. The pitch recognition and improvement on defense that Ackley displayed, and the pop and defensive range Franklin showed (ignore the errors, he's 19)were impressive. Of all the positive things that happened this year -- this is the one that was the most important, with apologies to Pineda's development.

The Bad
One of the issues that the M's minor-league system ran into was a lack of consistency. Ackley's struggles were mentioned above, but he was far from the only player who had ups and downs. Alex Liddi's season wasn't bad -- especially for his age -- but it was riddled with cold stretches that showed why Liddi isn't an elite prospect. Maikel Cleto's numbers are skewed by pitching in the Cal League, but his command was inconsistent all year and played a large part in the mediocre numbers. James Jones ended the year as hot as a hitter could be, but was awful from April to July. It's reasonable to expect inconsistency from such young players -- but these struggles serve as important reminders that it takes young players time to develop and are going to have ups and downs in the beginning of their careers.

The Ugly
It's important to preface this with a couple of facts. Carlos Triunfel is still very young, and there is immense talent. With this being said, this year was a step backwards. .257/.286/.322 just isn't going to get the job done. The 21 year-old shortstop still showed plus ability to make contact, but that gets negated pretty quickly when you only walk 13 times. There are players who had worse seasons than Triunfel this year, but none with that kind of talent, and his place as a top five prospect is slowly evaporating.

gbu----minor-league-edition-i

Comments
The following 22 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: bcsimons on 10-10-2010 16:01:32
I love that for once our Goods outway the bad. These players were the only thing that keeps me from giving up on the Mariners.

2. By: Rudolf on 10-10-2010 16:26:58
Additional good:

Dennis Raben, when healthy, hammered the ball. Mauricio Robles's sustained K-rate. Dan Cortes's metamorphosis. Nate Tenbrink displayed some potential. The Texas trade bounty.

Additional Bad:

Gabriel Noriega stunk. Mario Martinez stunk. Josh Fields got hurt again. Hensley fell apart.

As bcsimons said though, the good outweighs the bad.

Can't wait to see what the M's system produces next year!

3. By: safecochatter on 10-10-2010 23:34:19
couple of questions on Carlos Triunfel.
1st i think it's common knowledge that you always try to put the younger players in positions where they will succeed. with that in mind,why was Carlos batting dead last in the wt batting order most of the season? and what does that say about what the organization thinks of his future?

4. By: Adam P. Boyd on 10-11-2010 00:49:04
It says nothing about what the organization thinks about his future.

Putting him last takes away any pressure he might feel batting higher and lets him relax during his at bats and focus on things they want him to work on - instead of worrying that he needs to drive in runs in the middle of the order or get on base at the top of the order.

5. By: Marco on 10-11-2010 01:27:14
Liddi's cold stretches - along with a still mediocre 0.34 eye ratio and questionable defense - are certainly my same concerns about him. Nobody can affirm he had a breakout season in 2010. But he's just 22 and playing his first season in AA with a lot of responsability in the WT lineup and IMO I find hard to put him in the bad category with his .281/.353/.476 and a league leading 92 RBI. I repeat, likely he has a lot of issues to be fixed but given he's not an elite prospect I'd say he had a promising season. Do you believe he should repeat in AA or being promoted to Tacoma ?

6. By: Rudolf on 10-11-2010 08:32:55
We don't talk about Raben much on here. How badly was he injured? Have you heard anything about his recovery? What level do you see him playing at next year?

7. By: slamcactus on 10-11-2010 12:39:19
I know that at 23 he's not the sexiest prospect, but Nate Tenbrink's season should probably qualify as "good." He hit .319/.409/.521 across two levels, and actually hit for more power on the road than at home during his time with High Desert. He showed solid-average power, patience, and vastly improved defense. Not sure what else we could have asked from him, except maybe a couple more dingers during his time in Double-A.

8. By: slamcactus on 10-11-2010 12:45:16
"his place as a top five prospect is slowly evaporating."

I would say his place as a top five prospect is officially gone. He hasn't taken a single meaningful step forward since his age-17 season, and at present he just doesn't have the skills to be a major leaguer. He'll need a big breakout to get back his lost prospect shine, and I'm not convinced he's got it in him.

9. By: Edman on 10-11-2010 12:53:08
Carlos Triunfel is nothing more than a prospect at this point. All the talent in the world doesn't make for a great baseball player. He's still young, but as far as I'm concerned, his age has caught up to him, and he no longer has time to "put it together".

10. By: Missthosepilots on 10-11-2010 13:20:28
Baseball is such a cerebral sport that I fear scouts don't add that enough of that as a "tool." Interesting to see who does what and sometimes not always the why.

11. By: slamcactus on 10-11-2010 15:50:28
Saying he no longer has time is going a bit too far, Edman. The odds are incredibly long at this point, but time is the one thing he has plenty of.

12. By: marinermutt on 10-11-2010 16:01:17
"James Jones ended the year as hot as a hitter could be, but was awful from April to July"

I would say Jones had an awful April and May but then rebounded well. And to add to that, even in April and May, he was getting walks. He played the entire year at the age of 21 which I would guess is about the average for the Midwest league and you have to remember that in college he was thought more of a pitcher than a position player.

I think he is one of the biggest sleepers in the M's farm system.

April .218 .315 .372
May .200 .339 .356
June .257 .337 .432
July .309 .391 .495
August .331 .381 .472

13. By: Edman on 10-11-2010 17:24:26
And how is an ordinary prospect, who's odds are incredibly long, different from Carlos? Because he got more press? Because some scouts like him?

He's still a prospect, but not one that you can push into a list of top prospects. When he shows numbers that give an indication of greatness, then he becomes a top prospect, not until.

14. By: shortstop9 on 10-11-2010 22:04:08
Japanese SS Hiroyuki Nakajima is going to be posted this winter.The M's need to get involved in that and just use Wilson as a backup.

15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-12-2010 00:06:41
shortstop9,

Nakajima may be a slight upgrade, but there are many scouts that are concerned he's even an everyday shortstop in the states. Limited range, and at the plate he lacks the ability to hit good velocity, loads up a little slowly and the swing is a bit long. He's sure-handed and turns two well, and the arm would pass. That pretty much equals Kaz Matsui, though, and that isn't a good player. And he'd cost a posting fee AND guaranteed salary for however long his contract ultimately ends up being. Even if the fee is but 3-4 million and his salary was around 2-3 mil for three years (and it will likely be more on both accounts), that's too much of a commitment.

If you want a better shortstop, go get J.J. Hardy, go get Cesar Izturis and hope one puts things together. Go offer Arizona young pitching for Stephens Drew... Nakajima isn't the answer.

16. By: rocketdawg31 on 10-12-2010 03:17:18

I'm glad you brought up Stephen Drew, Jason.

I'm not hugely enamored of him, but he'd be on my radar.

And Arizona would be on my radar to trade with.

I also think- despite his trade value having taken a touch of a nosedive- it's time to think about dealing Franklin Gutierrez.

We're going to have to part with some things to get some quality bats in this lineup. Free agency will be precious little help, and expecting every kid we have to set the world on fire would be wholly unrealistic.

Can't wait to hear what you and Chris think!

17. By: slamcactus on 10-12-2010 13:40:57
Saying he's no longer a top prospect and saying that he no longer has time to put it together are two very different things, Ed. The first is true. The second is not.

18. By: Edman on 10-12-2010 14:17:49
Let me clarify, slam. Carlos has time to still have a useful career. What can't be done is using his age as a justification that he can still be a top prospect. He's reaching the end of that timeline. He'd have to show remarkable improvement and climb quickly up the minor league ladder. Personally, I wouldn't at all count on him at this point. That's not to say that he can't still be a good major league player. But, he's going to have to come from behind the pack and be very impressive.

That, in my mind, makes him a fringe player.

19. By: rjfrik on 10-12-2010 15:59:21
Word in the blogosphere is that Nakajima is on the M's roster and they are very very interested in posting for him to fill the 2B role until Ackley is ready. I imagine once Ackley is ready Nakajima can slide over to SS. When you look at this stats from Japan and what he has done in the WBC and the Olympics, he isn't that bad of an option really. I don't think he will cost that much either.

20. By: StandinPat on 10-12-2010 22:06:46
"What can't be done is using his age as a justification that he can still be a top prospect. He's reaching the end of that timeline."

Triunfel spent the entire year as a 20 yr old in a league where the average age is somewhere around 25. A 5 year difference is more than enough to still "qualify" his performances. Granted, he still didn't have a very good year, but to say time is running out seems mighty premature. Again, he is only 20, if he spends the next 3 years trying to figure things out in the minors he'll still only be 23.

21. By: Edman on 10-13-2010 04:13:43
rj, who cares what the blogosphere thinks? It's not necessarily what Jack or any of the Mariner scouts think. That's not evidence of anything, other than a bunch of guys speculating what the M's might do. It's not anything more. And to say he's on their roster, is an extremely HUGE stretch. I assume you meant radar, which he may be. But, he might be a minor blip and nothing more.

Why would Nakajima come to the USA without getting money in a a long-term contract? Why would Seattle pay a posting fee? They could go sign an established MLB secondbaseman for less money overall, and much less hassle.

It amazes me what people will speculate.

22. By: Sapo44 on 10-14-2010 11:14:11
Carlos T is gonna have to really turn it around if he is still to be considered a candidate for any meaningful time as a Marier big leaguer. He has gone backwards, he is out of shape, and he doesn't play the game with passion and effort worthy of being a big leaguer.

On a second note, how can a season in which you lead the entire Mariner minor league system in ERA, had a 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio, pitched over 175 innings, never missed a start, never go less than 5 innings per start (excpet one game at 4 2/3 innings)and play at 3 different levels in the same year not qualify for at least a "good" year? I'm talking about the year LHP Anthony Vasquez had, and he did it in his first full year of pro ball. He pitched the entire year as a 23 year old (turned 24 in late Sept.) All this guy does is get people out, break bats in the process, and he doesn't walk anybody. He can run it up to 92 with his fastball, and throws a variety of piches in the 78-90 range as well. Don't discard someone just because they don't light up the radar gun, for a pitcher getting outs is the name of the game. By the way, the average fastball in the big leagues for a LHP is 86-88, and Vasquez is well within that range for those of you who think velocity equals effective pitching.

You are not currently logged in. If you'd like to comment on this report, please log in.
Haven't created a Prospect Insider account yet? Sign up!