| By Chris Crawford |  | By 10-03-2010 |
The season is (mercifully) over, so it's time to take a final look at what we can look forward to, what needs improvement, and what just made you watch your 2001 Mariner highlight tapes instead of this crap.
The Good
It starts with Felix Hernandez, it probably could end with Felix Hernandez. Watching Hernandez throw this season was like finding a $100 dollar bill as your prize in a box of stale cracker-jacks with glass-shard instead of caramel topping. He was the best pitcher in the American League, and he's here for a while. Enjoy it.
The Cliff Lee trades may not have had the post-season ramifications that so many of us (unrealistically) had hoped for -- but the process was something future general-managers should be tough in school. What GM Jack Zduriencik did in flipping a reliever, a 4th OF and what might be a mid-rotation starter for half a year of Lee, a long-term power-hitting corner infielder, a future closer and two projects, was genius. Zduriencik isn't perfect -- we've seen the results of a few other trades that echo that sentiment is false -- but he's a really good GM, and he's made the future so much brighter than it was. Don't let people tell you other wise.
The Bad
The Brandon Morrow for Brandon League trade obviously didn't work out very well. Morrow flourished in Toronto, League was an above-average set-up man at best. The rest of the bullpen was mediocre at best, including David Aardsma. Ryan Rowland-Smith was supposed to be the teams third starter, instead he was awful. Chone Figgins was brought in to be an on-base machine and better defense at second-base, he did neither. There's a lot more that could go under this header -- but then it would just be good and bad -- and the wouldn't be........
The Ugly
How much time do you have? Last in batting-average, last in on-base percentage, last in-slugging percentage, last in runs (funny how that works). Lowest on-base percentage in three decades. A team OPS of under .700 is awful. An OPS below .650 is not only unheard of, but completely unacceptable. The worst part of all of this, is there's no guarantee that the offense is going to be better. The only guys that you could "expect" improvement from are Franklin Gutierrez and Justin Smoak, and one has had offensive seasons just like this and the other will be entering the second year. You might add Michael Saunders to the list, but it's no gimme that he's going to be part of the 2011 team. When you add that you're relying on Doug Fister and Jason Vargas to repeat their performances of last year and that not one piece of this bullpen is assured to be back? Next year could be the definition of ugly. Stay tuned.
gbu----mlb-final-edition
Comments
The following 25 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Jerry on 10-03-2010 21:49:27 I gotta disagree with your final point about how the team can't really expect to better in 2010. I don't see any way they could repeat this level of suck. When 90 percent of a team are putting up ~650 ops numbers, there is plenty of room for improvement. I think they could send out the exact same team we saw tonight any see a dramatic improvement. The young guys should improve and guys like Guti and Figgins are likely to rebound. And improving at 3B and DH shouldn't be tough, because the 2010 status quo was so putrid. I think this club needs to rebuild a bit, but I like what jack has done thus far. 2011 will be a year for restocking the system and developing young players. But even with lower expectations, the offense should be better. A huge part of this disaster is just terrible luck. And the club will definitely be more fun to watch. If nothing else, there's just no way they can be this bad. We just witnessed a train wreck get stuck by lightning during an earthquake. It was a historically bad offense. There is too much talent on this club to stay this bad. Its easy to be pessimistic about the future, but this team has some good pieces. And they have a very good guy making decisions this offseason. And there's nowhere else to go but up. |
| 2. By: Chris Crawford on 10-03-2010 21:55:03 Which is why there is a good section -- trust me, I'm MUCH more optimistic about this team than most. But there's a LOT of work to be done before this offense is even below average, even with said improvement. |
| 3. By: MoneyMike on 10-03-2010 22:37:58 Chris, Given the Bucs having Pedro Alvarez, is there a chance Rendon falls to the M's? If so, do they take him, or go for an arm? |
| 4. By: PositivePaul on 10-04-2010 00:37:22 I dunno - I'm not convinced the Pirates are the types to take the BPA, really. Not convinced the M's are either. Still, there's a lot that can happen between now and next June. The draft is pretty thick with talent and I'm sure Jack's crew will land a pretty good player! Count me in as someone who thinks that the M's offense's woes are far from immediately fixable. Ackley will hit when he gets here but not necessarily right out of the gate. As certain as I am that Ichiro will get his 200 hits next year, I'm uncertain Figgins will be much better, and uncertain that the youngsters will fare much better than they did this year. Guti should improve a little. But beyond that, I'm not convinced there's much out there whether in our system or outside of it that can help the M's woes offensively too much. They need two huge bats to carry the offense. Unless Smoak just goes OFF next year, I just don't see that happening... |
| 5. By: Chris Crawford on 10-04-2010 01:11:55 Rendon, if he proves he's healthy, is the clear-cut number one pick. I would be stunned if anyone "earns" the pick over Rendon, though I suppose it's possible Cole or Springer goes nuts and does just that. BTW, I'm just gonna say it now -- not a fan of Matt Purke. Mid-first round talent to me, not a top two pick at all. |
| 6. By: malcontent1 on 10-04-2010 01:49:10 I don't understand the pessimism over Chone Figgins, yes the 2nd Base defense was mostly terrible, but the poor batting line is hardly worse than his 2008, his BABiP was the worst it's been since 2006 even though his line drive rate was basically normal and his flyballs were down. He had a .712 OPS over the last 62 games of the year and a .757 OPS in September (mostly because of slightly better power production and much improved BABiP). |
| 7. By: Shawnuel on 10-04-2010 11:01:23 Hard to believe that Ichiro wouldn't get a mention in the "good" column. Just seeing his stat line in comparison with the rest of the lineup is like having a Vanilla scented candle followed by 8 methane filled lamps. |
| 8. By: Edman on 10-04-2010 11:50:31 Yes, Ichiro should be in the good column, absolutely. He broke the major league record for consecutive seasons with 200 (or more) hits. That's no small task. As for hoping that Pittsburgh passes up on Rendon, I think some of you are hoping beyond reasonable hope. Teams take the best available player with the first overall pick. They can always find another place to move him or Alvarez. An elite bat will find a home somewhere in the majors. Some thought Washington might pass on Stratsburg......didn't happen, and barring a complete brain malfunction in Pittsburgh, they'll take the best player available, Rendon or not. That's the most probable choice. So now you hope they don't rank him as the best player in the draft. Either way, Seattle's going to get a very good player. |
| 9. By: Rudolf on 10-04-2010 12:49:02 I love Ichiro, so don't get me wrong... And Franklin Gutierrez is pretty cool, too... But where are the runs going to come from with those two plus Figgins, Ackley, Saunders, Moore, and shortstop over the next three years? That's a serious lack of pop. And the OBP isn't great either. This is an obvious question, I realize, but how will Jack answer it? Trade Gutierrez? What kind of value could he fetch in return? How much would we miss his defense? Trade Saunders? I want to root for Saunders, but will he ever OPS .850? Can he do that? And his plus defense looks pretty shaky to me. Trade Figgins? Seems like an inopportune time to do that. Sign/Trade for a real catcher? Who? Sign/Trade for a shortstop? What about Jack Wilson's contract? Who is available that can get on base and hit for any power in Safeco? I'm no GM, but it sure looks like a few of these guys have to go if we're going to score any runs in the next two years. I don't think we can just sign a DH and expect different results. And sadly, the minors can't fill holes until 2012 at the earliest, plus development/adjustment time. Jack has his hands full. I just hope he doesn't trade Pineda. |
| 10. By: Edman on 10-04-2010 14:26:55 It's going to take more than relying on the draft and farm system to get this team where it needs to be. Jack reached in 2009, and it paid off. Jack reached again last year, and it didn't. We have to face some facts. The failures this year weren't small, they were huge, from Lopez on down. Chances of that happening again, aren't realistic. That said, Jack has to make some sound decisions. He's not going to have a lot to work with and he's going to have to be creative. He's shown he can do that, so we'll see. I hope the FO gives him a more payroll this coming season, so he has more of an ability to not have to take bargin basement deals to clear payroll. He's going to have to find a few useful bats out there. Branyan is a must, if he can resign him at a reasonable price. Smoak's gonna be fine, but he'll need someone to help take the pressure off. I think they also need a veteran starter. A lot needs to be done, but let the Giants be an example. Who would have thought they'd be in the playoffs this year? Seattle needs to be entertaining. They can't afford to lose their fanbase. I trust in Jack to rebound. |
| 11. By: Timberwolf on 10-04-2010 14:33:46 Momentum plays such a huge role in a baseball season. The 2001 and 2009 teams overachieved and the 2008 and 2010 teams underachieved. I don't think pitching is a problem. We have numbers of guys with some talent who should be able to fill out the bullpen and the bottom of the rotation. Aardsma wasn't that bad for having a bad year with injuries and an awful team. The offense sucks, we all know that. We absolutely need to add one serious power bat to this lineup before we start tinkering around the edges. I like Smoak, but I do not want to go into next year expecting him to be THE man. We don't have a lot of chips to deal with, and I would hate to see Lincoln and Armstrong pressure Jack Z. to move a lot of young guys to convince the idiots in the fan base that we can contend in 2011. I think Figgins would be just fine in a good lineup where he can utilize his lead-off skills. That isn't Seattle. I'd love to trade him. |
| 12. By: gwangung on 10-04-2010 15:13:47 Getting a big bat would be good, but, on a process ground, getting someone with a high OBP would be the next best thing. (And don't point to this year to argue against that--a season with low SLG AND low OBP really doesn't support that point). |
| 13. By: PositivePaul on 10-04-2010 17:36:58 Ugly: Jack & Jill's, er I mean Lincoln's e-mail to the fans. Beaven is a 'hard-throwing' pitcher, and yet Josh Lueke isn't mentioned? Chone Figgins is one of "...our four core players...???" Ugly is the PR/Political Correctness crap we have to put up with in the M's executives. I'm so tired of it! |
| 14. By: Jerry on 10-04-2010 23:30:47 I think a lot of the disagreement over the offense next year is basically due to two groups of people with different sets of expectations arguing past each other. For me, I expect improvement, but that's simply because the bar couldn't be any lower. There is just no easy they can replicate this historic level of suck again. And I see no way they lose 101 games again. But don't think this club will have a good offense in 2011. With a few guys having good years (like a breakout from Smoak and respectable numbers from Saunders and Moore), the club could be league average or slightly below. With our pitching and defense, that's a decent club. Maybe .500ish. That would be a great improvement. I think the goal here isn't to expect the org to fix the offense in one year. They just need to develop the young core of guys already in the organization and get back to respectability. That would put them in good shape for the 2011-2012 offseason, when a lot of bad contracts come off the books. If you expect a dramatic turnaround, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. |
| 15. By: tridenttrue on 10-05-2010 01:41:29 @PositivePaul I think the omission of Lueke is simply because he is nowhere in their future plans. They will put him into some deal in the off-season as a throw-in and be done with the whole affair. |
| 16. By: Rudolf on 10-05-2010 09:37:09 I don't think anyone can expect a dramatic turnaround in the offense. However, where will the upgrades be over the next three years? Gutierrez- under contract for three or four more years. Ichiro- under contract for three more years. Saunders- hasn't proven he can hit. Hope he does. Figgins- Three more years. Ackley- longterm- might be a figgins/ichiro type bat Moore- ??? Wilson(s)/Franklin/Triunfel/???- anything by 2013? If Smoak, Ackley and Saunders all develop, we might have a decent offense in a few years. But mix in Ichiro, Figgins, Gutierrez and a suck hole at shortstop, not to mention catcher, and things look less than pungent no matter what DH you insert. I bet management is looking to replace Figgins and Saunders with bigger bats. Since Gutierrez is so talented defensively he will be made available for the right guy as well. The M's cannot keep this current offensive core of Ichiro, Gutierrez, Saunders, Figgins, Moore, suckhole and Ackley thru 2013 and expect to will a lot of ballgames. Watching guys develop is one thing. Scoring 3.3 runs/game is another. |
| 17. By: Jerry on 10-05-2010 10:12:18 Rudolf, Why would you think that the team will have basically the same players in 2013? Half the club well likely turn over by then. Players will flame out. Players will emerge as cornerstones. Trades will take place. Hell, the guy we draft #2 next year will likely be with the club by 2013. Just because guys like Guti, Figgins, and Ichiro are signed through 2013 doesn't mean they'll still be here by then. Hell, Felix might not even be here by then. Its beyond pointless to worry about 2013 now. Even 2012 is tough to predict. Just think about what type of conclusions you'd have drawn using the same rationale back in 2007. The one thing we can be relatively sure about for this offseason is that Jack will be busy. Should be interesting. |
| 18. By: Edman on 10-05-2010 11:39:59 #15, I don't think it indicates anything, other than they're not going to put his name out there for any further scrutany. Ironically, ommitting his name appears to have accomplished the same thing, by a few. Perhaps it's better a few than many. Sadly, if they do trade him, what does it say about the Mariners? Another team is willing to give him a chance, but the M's are not? That's a pretty sad commentary. |
| 19. By: maqman on 10-05-2010 13:51:55 It will indeed be sad if they make baseball decisions based on their PR aspirations. I still trust GMZ to work some magic this off-season but look at .500 as a reasonable goal for 2011 with more improvement in 2012. As has been stated, it is effectively impossible to have as many unproductive performances two years in a row. If Bavasi was still here maybe, but Jack ain't going to let it happen. I would like to see them bring in a decent veteran catcher like Buck, Johnson should go and I don't think much of Moore but they should give him one more season, but as a backup. |
| 20. By: mauricewilliamsiii on 10-05-2010 17:25:05 Ichiro is signed for only two more years and Figgins is just about guaranteed four more with his vesting option, barring a trade to another team of course. |
| 21. By: on 10-05-2010 19:31:26 Jerry, I think we are making similar statements. However, I do not agree that it is pointless to speculate. It's fun! People want to see more offense from this team and I'm wondering aloud where it will come from. Even if Smoak fulfills his promise over the next two years and we sign a towering DH, I don't see how this offense is enough to compete. I'm not saying it's impossible, but improbable. 2011-12 lineup: Ichiro Figgins Smoak Beastly DH Saunders Gutierrez C (slugging, like Napoli) Ackley SS I have a hard time seeing much improvement from this year with that line-up. Will the M's just run it out there and hope people develop? I doubt it. Who's gonna go? ichiro? yeah right. Figgins? Good possibility. Saunders? Good possibility Gutierrez? Good possibility My point is that some of the guys we want to watch develop, (or are fond of, or owe a lot of money to), are on their way out if the team is going to score enough runs to have a chance. I think I'm looking at you, Michael Saunders. Maybe guys like Halman or Chavez or Liddi will arrive in a year and save the day, but I doubt the M's will sit back and hope these guys get it together between now and 2013. I also doubt they are deluded enough to think adding a veteran catcher and DH will make much difference. |
| 22. By: Timberwolf on 10-05-2010 21:43:38 The 2009 Mariners were not an offensive juggernaut, they were below average. Below average is a major upgrade from expansion team terrible. Figgins, Saunders, and Guttierez improving on their 2010 numbers is a reasonable expectation. The only person on the team who could go in the opposite direction without winning an outright release is Ichiro. |
| 23. By: Rudolf on 10-05-2010 23:35:31 The 2009 M's were also fortunate in run differential. And they also had Branyan and Lopez knocking the ball around. And Gutierrez had a career year, (to date). A few reasonable improvements doesn't make the offense much better than terrible. They would need across the board improvements. |
| 24. By: rightwingrick on 10-05-2010 23:55:23 With an excellent lead-off option in Figgins and hardly any other hitters here or available, it's seriously time to move Ichiro to #3. I can't believe that didn't happen this year. I think everyone had paralyzed brains. Figgins 3b Ackley 2b (may as well let them play) Ichiro rf Branyan dh or an upgrade (hopefully someone healthy) Gutierrez cf Smoak 1b (may as well let them play) Saunders lf (may as well let them play) Moore c (may as well let them play) upgrade at SS (hopefully someone who can pop 10-15 HR) Adios and buena fortuna to Jose Lopez and Milton Bradley. Hello to Michael Pineda, Mauricio Robles, Dan Cortes, and (real darkhorse) Tom Wilhelmsen. |
| 25. By: Jerry on 10-06-2010 09:03:25 Again, don't want to beat a dead horse, but the assumption that the club will maintain anything like the status quo beyond 2011 isn't realistic at all. First, I think we'll see at least one mega-trade this offseason, which will totally change how we view the roster going forward. Something like the Putz trade. Or perhaps a handful of smaller deals. Second, its likely that at least a few of the youngsters will develop into solid contributors. If Smoak goes off next year (which isn't all that unlikely) the M's rebuilding effort will be a lot easier. Then we are talking about adding a few good pieces for a run in 2012 instead of a wholesale reconstruction of the offense. Third, the M's are in a GREAT position to use 2011 to find a diamond in the rough. Every year, a handful of players emerge as very pleasant surprises for their respective clubs. Guys like Carlos Pena, Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Quentin, Josh Hamilton, and Nelson Cruz come to mind as recent examples of guys who were once good prospects, struggled a while, were available for little, and emerged as very good players. The M's are looking at a rebuild year in 2011. This is the perfect time to pick up undervalued players and ex-prospects, and give them a chance to live up to their potential. This is where Jack Z needs to earn his paycheck. He's known as a good evaluator of talent, and has a good group of people advising him. I'd love to see the M's buy low on a guy like Brandon Wood, Alex Gordon, or BJ Upton. There are tons of other potential targets we could name. If they flame out, who really cares? Its not like they are going to contend next year anyhow. But if they strike gold on a guy like this, it would get the club back to respectability a LOT faster. |
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