Prospect Insider - Grading the M's 2011 Draft

Grading the M's 2011 Draft

By Jason A. Churchill

By 08-16-2011

Now that the smoke has cleared and we know the dollars attached to the talents -- and even more about the players -- let's review the 2011 draft class for the Seattle Mariners.

Getting 43 of 51 picks signed is enormous, especially considering that the only pick in the top 23 rounds (24 total picks) that did not sign is power-hitting first baseman and third-round selection Kevin Cron, who instead will head to TCU.

Danny Hultzen, LHP -- No. 2 overall
No, I still would have much preferred the M's tab a higher-upside player such as Bubba Starling, Dylan Bundy or Francisco Lindor at No. 2 overall, but I maintain that the pick isn't a poor choice because Hultzen is so likely to produce in the big leagues, albeit at an abbreviated level somewhere south of star levels.

The money Hultzen received -- $6.35 million bonus with $8.5 million guaranteed and a chance to guarantee himself more than $10 million -- doesn't change that assessment, as he received a very similar deal to Dustin Ackley, the No. 2 pick two years ago, plus a small inflation percentage on top.

Hultzen is likely to see the majors in a hurry, too, with April of next season not out of the question. Yes, it's possible that Hultzen never pitches in the minors.

Considering the upside, risk versus probability factors, the dollars involved and what else the club could have had, it'd be easy to plant a C grade on the selection, but because I believe there is a good chance Starling and Bundy were not signable for Seattle (or Pittsburgh or even Arizona), that Hultzen, who brings a No. 2 ceiling to the table, is a strong finale choice.

Grade: B

Brad Miller, SS -- No. 62 overall
Not once this spring did I speak to a scout in the Carolinas that believed Miller was a top-100 talent, nor a player that sticks at shortstop, which is why I question his pick. The Mariners, however, received some kudos on the Miller selection from other clubs, and I spoke to a crosschecker for one of those clubs Sunday.

"Was he the best player on the board at 62? No, he clearly was not," he said. "But no team, not even the Red Sox and others teams that spend eight figures every year on the draft, take the absolute best talent on the board at every pick. Signability and budget come into the picture, and Miller, for near-slot money, is a terrific value. I think he ends up an above-average second baseman or a fringy shortstop, but I agree with you that he could play center based on his feet and arm."

Miller received above slot money -- $750,000 versus a slot estimate of $587,700 -- but that isn't enough to make the pick significantly worse for me.

I'm not saying Miller isn't going to be a big leaguer, but I'd much rather have paid another $1-1.5 million on a player that I, and most clubs I spoke with on the trail this spring, see as having a better shot to be a major league contributor, or even an all-star, including right-hander Dillon Howard, left-handers Jorge Lopez and Daniel Norris, catcher Cameron Gallagher, who signed for the identical number, and Oregon State catcher Andrew Susac, who received $1.1 million and was the best college catcher in the class.

Grade: C-

Kevin Cron, 1B -- No. 92 overall
The Mariners will fail here, but they didn't low-ball Cron. He wanted first-round money and stuck to that demand and as a result will almost certainly make less money in three years than the M's offered him -- which I am told was at LEAST twice the slot recommendation of $375,300, and most likely close to seven figures -- but hey, that's his prerogative.

I would have given Cron as much as $1.2-1.3 because his 70 grade power plays in any ballpark despite his handedness, but there's no chance I offer more than that or run out of budget as a result and end up unable to give Cavan Cohoes his $650,000.

Cron is a one-trick pony who profiles as a first baseman or DH only with a hit tool that needs four years of work, so it's not like the club passed on the next Mark Teixeria. They get a failing grade here, however, because clubs should have a good idea what it's going to take to get a kid to sign and whether or not they would be willing to meet those demands, and from what I can gather, Cron's camp did not change their desires significantly after the draft.

Grade: F

Carter Capps, RHP -- No. 121 overall
Capps is the best value pick in the entire draft as a potential No. 3 -- maybe No. 2 if everything works out perfectly -- with a floor as a high-leverage reliever and one within a few years of the majors.

Capps has above-average command and control of plus velocity that reaches 94-96 mph but is generally 92-93, and a solid assortment of breaking balls and changeups.

His delivery does need work and is the main reason there are questions about whether he stays in the rotation or not, but he repeats it well and throws strikes, so I say damn the questions. If Max Scherzer is an average or better starter in MLB with his mechanics, Capps can be, too.

Capps is well worth the $500,000 bonus, and probably three or four times that in the end.

Grade: A

Rounds 4-6
The M's tabbed catchers John Hicks and Tyler Marlette in rounds four and five -- Hicks caught Hultzen at Virginia and Marlette a high-energy prep kid with plus raw power and arm strength -- and selected James Zamarripa, a prep outfielder from Rancho Cucamonga, Calif. in round six. All can be considered satisfactory selections and signings, but Marlette is the key here.

Adding catchers with offensive upside and the tools to succeed defensively is huge, especially since Steve Baron was the opposite -- defensive upside and physical tools to succeed defensively, but with no polish to his game at all.

Marlette immediately becomes one of the top two catching prospects in the organization, but I won't tell you where he ranks just yet, or which other backstop is right there with him.

Hicks is likely to hit a little bit, but not enough to make up for the lack of an above-average skill behind the plate, including questionable footwork.

Zamarripa is a strong, sturdy outfielder that may develop enough of an all-around game to be a fourth outfielder.

There were a few better talents on the board when Hicks was taken, but nobody so glaring that didn't require top-15 money to get signed.

Grade: B

Rounds 7-10
The M's may get as much from these four rounds as any club in this year's draft, with infielder Steve Proscia, right-hander Carson Smith, shortstop Cavan Cohoes and infielder Dan Paolini.

Proscia may or may not stick at third base, but if he can he has an outside shot to be a platoon player, and may get some time in the outfield to help his value. Smith has good stuff and his future is likely in the eighth inning as his delivery and low arm slot strongly suggest a short-relief role.

Cohoes is a good athlete, yet raw and unchallenged and may be a long-term project, but his swing mechanics are sound and he's already got some present strength. Paolini is an organizational player, most likely, but one with some interesting upside. He has power and swings for the downs, and if somehow he can figure out how to make good, consistent contact without giving up too much of that pop, he could be a big leaguer, after all.

Grade: B+

Rounds 11-20
The highlights of these 10 rounds include 16th rounder Jack Marder and 20th rounder Dillon Hazlett. Marder, an infielder by nature, has made a conversion to catcher that impressed scouts and the M's see him as a potential future regular. So do I.

And he will hit enough to be a factor, though not with a lot of power. He throws well and has good feet and shows average to above-average pop times with a 50 arm and plus accuracy.

Hazlett played second base at his first two schools, including UNC, but scouts liked him in center field this past spring. He's playing second, third, first, left and center in Pulaski this summer, but offers 55 or 60 foot speed, an above-average arm and some pop that fits well in the middle of the diamond.

Luke Guarnaccia from Palm Beach JC in Florida is also very interesting as the 19th round pick. He's raw but has some athletic ability and a strong work ethic. We've talked here at PI about 12th-rounder Mike Dowd and his 70 throwing arm and undersized lefty Nick Valenza will be a fun one to watch develop. He's 5-foot-9 and 180 pounds but generally sits in the 89-92 mph range thanks to great arm speed and a terrific power delivery that may leave him in a bullpen role.

Grade: B

Rounds 21-50
I was disappointed that 34th rounder Taylor Brennan didn't sign, but lefty Jeremy Dobbs out of Austin Peay State (33rd round) has a fastball-slider-changeup combo that could make him a back-end starting prospect or a solid middle reliever, and Richard White, the club's 23rd rounder from the Virgin Islands, has good arm speed and sits 90-92 with his fastball.

Bo Reeder, a 36th round pick, has touched 96 from the mound but a few clubs like his swing and believe he may be able to catch, play left field or even serve as a utility player thanks to good bat speed and strength. He's built like a catcher and throws well, but has quick feet.

Grade: B-

Overall
Now that the dust has settled, I like the class more than prior to the signings, partly because of the cost certainty and partly due to the fact that a few of these picks have performed for a month and are responding well to pro ball, a good sign of things to come.

The M's probably drafted 6-10 big league players from the class, and three or four of them could end up playing regularly or serve as a key reliever or starting pitcher. and maybe most importantly, there may be a catcher or two in this group that can handle the everyday job within the next 2-5 years.

There aren't any stars in this class even though they spent more than $10 million in bonus money, however, which keeps them from getting an A.

Overall Grade: B

grading-the-m\'s-2011-draft

Comments
The following 21 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: dawgncarolina on 08-16-2011 19:26:33
Good analysis, Jason, and I agree with most everything. I do think Hultzen has a real shot to be a star, though. And Capps, Marlette, Marder and Cohoes all have (extremely) outside shots to develop to that level as well.

I'm with you on the B grade, though I might up that a tick to a B+. Miller is the big disappointment to me, but if he surprises, this class has a chance to be pretty special. It will probably never match the 2010 draft or perhaps the 09 one (which was fantastic outside of Baron), but I doubt it will look like the redheaded stepchild compared to those two like I once thought.

2. By: short on 08-16-2011 19:51:02
Given the issues surrounding the other prospects, who would you have drafted at number 2? I feel like Hultzen is a very good combination of talent, signability and proximity to the majors and I'm not sure who I would have drafted instead.

3. By: dawgncarolina on 08-16-2011 20:02:43
I had the top 6 ranked Rendon, Cole, Bundy, Hultzen, Bauer, Starling going into the draft, so the only available guys I'd have taken ahead of Hultzen were Rendon and Bundy.

4. By: baseballman on 08-16-2011 20:59:09
Very good and fair analysis JAC.

I do have one question. You talked to one of the scouts about Miller looking like a player who could be moved to CF. If that's the case and the reason the Ms drafted him, to immediately move off of SS and to CF, does his grade go up?

5. By: short on 08-16-2011 21:06:02
Based on that ranking I can see why the M's took Hultzen. Bundy is 18 and years away. If there's a talent difference, and it looks like Bundy has the edge, Hultzen's proximity to the majors closes it in my mind.

Rendon's injury problems scared me off and appear to have scared off some other teams as well. Haven't checked how he's doing lately, but spending most of the year at DH prior to the draft wasn't a good sign.

6. By: Tackeret on 08-16-2011 21:23:35
JAC-

Just a thought that has been nagging me for a bit. Would the Mariners take a player like Cron with a protective pick, with no strong intention to sign them, just to block other teams from selecting him knowing that they will recieve a pick next season for their efforts?

Not implying that the M's did this, but seemed plausible.

Thanks like always, your research and insight are great!

7. By: Marty on 08-16-2011 21:51:44
Great job with this. Very inclusive, although it seems as if they're 13th rounder, Jamal Austin, should have been mentioned somewhere. He has maybe the only 80 tool in the system in his speed and he is a very good defender in CF. Not to mention he flirted with .400 for a while in Pulaski and is currently leading the Appy league in AVG, OBP and SB's. Ceiling 4th OF?

8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-17-2011 02:16:18
Marty,

Certainly, I just couldn't mention all that deserves mention. His hit tool is NOT that refined, however, and he's even very raw as a base runner and base stealer.

Tackeret,

Would they? I seriously doubt it. Did they? No, they did not. I know for fact they did not. The fact that it is protected helps them take a chance on a kid, however.

baseballman,

Not for me, no. It may even hurt his value since 2B or SS > CF on the defensive value spectrum. And I don't even think the M's are considering the outfield for him right now.

dawg,

Starling, Bundy, Lindor and Cole before Hultzen for me, but I have a real good feeling that Hultzen was three on the M's board but didn't feel like Starling and Bundy were signable, and I don't blame them for that. Bundy is going to move fast for a prep kid, maybe two years out, but he still cost a 40-man spot and 6-plus million and it may have taken more to convince him SEATTLE was good enough landing spot to pass on school, maybe as much or more than what Hultzen got guaranteed -- $8.5 mil. Starling may have been even tougher for the M's to keep from Nebraska.

As for Hultzen being a star -- nobody I have talked to, even those that say things like "I love Hultzen" see him as a 1. To be a star, he's got to be a 1. Doesn't have to be an ace, but No. 2 starters aren't stars unless they pitch in Boston or Philly, or STL pre 2011. C.J. Wilson, Ricky Nolasco, Matt Cain, Mark Buehrle, A.J. Burnett, Scott Baker, Matt Garza ... not stars. But CC, Roy, Cliff, Lester, Beckett, Felix, Verlander, Lincecum ... stars.

9. By: docsmith on 08-17-2011 06:00:57
I have been looking forward to this post. Overall, it sounds like a pretty good haul. What I was wondering is how does it compare to other teams? Also,everyone talks about this as a deep draft, which seems to have proven out. But was there also an abnormally high number of top prospects? Or were there just a lot of players that grade out as B's and C's but a typical number of "A+s."

Thanks

10. By: Edman on 08-17-2011 10:45:23
I have to disagree with the choice of Hultzen getting a grade of B. While I wouldn't have minded Lindor, I think there are questions regarding him as well. The talent was so good at the top this year, there is so little separation. I would go with a B+, considering all the factors.

The picks of Franklin and Walker didn't get high marks either. Jack hasn't had a lot of drafts here in Seattle, and drafts he was involved with with the Brewers were pretty darn good.

I'll continue to trust in Jack, until he proves differently.

11. By: skyway park on 08-17-2011 10:54:21
Jason or anyone else who cares to comment.

Where do you think our system ranks after the people we got signed top ten?

I'm a little bit surprised on the struggles from Littlewood last year everyone had him pretty hyped up, has he dropped in your rankings Jason?

Also do you think if James Jones struggles again next year they might move him back to the mound? I remember when we drafted him you thought he was drafted as a picther.

12. By: Marty on 08-17-2011 12:11:07
Well said Edman. Jack/Tom have been at this for a long time and have seen over a million (not an exaggeration) players in their lifetime combined. They certainly have the scouting experience and I'm sure they didn't take this decision (of picking #2) lightly and there were numerous factors involved with their decision. That said, what's wrong with a future #2 starter, that's left-handed, athletic, with 3 at least above average pitches and above average to plus command and control? Not to mention, ALL of his stuff plays up because of his deceptive arm action and delivery. Oh, and he will get to big leagues very quick. They don't grow on trees, AND they are NOT at the top of every draft.

Also, we all need to remember that there are only a handful of true #1 starters in the big leagues right now and there has only been 2-3 projected #1 starters in the last 8 drafts (Strasburg, Taillion and maybe Price), and I don't believe there was one in this draft either, Bauer and Bundy included.

13. By: Edman on 08-17-2011 12:54:39
After a bit of thought, I think Hultzen's chances to pitch in the majors sooner, rather than later, is better for the team in the long run. Why? Because it allows the pitching depth in the minors to stockpile. That's important because it allows Jack flexability to move pitching in a deal to acquire hitting. It also allows him to solidify a young, talented starting rotation to add offense around. Pitching is a valuable piece in trade. We have to be honest and understand there is only so much Jack can do within the M's current minor league system to accomplish that. So, he's going to have to deal. And, it may cost a Paxton or Walker, to do so. You have to give up something, to get something.

I think that Jack's drafts on whole, have dramatically improved the minor league system. But, it's going to take a couple more years to see that talent rise to the surface.

This certainly isn't the Bavasi or Gillick era, in regard to the M's minor league system. Jack gets it. Build strength from within.

14. By: docsmith on 08-17-2011 13:36:38
Just read Drayer's most recent blog. She is also hearing (while recognizing JAC said it first) that the PTBNL is Ruffin.

Regarding Hultzen, he was one of the top players in the draft. Maybe he was the 4th best, maybe the 6th best, and maybe even the second best. But this wasn't much of a reach if it even was one. I am happy to have him and I am also happy if he contributes to the big league club sooner rather than later.

15. By: VikingArthur on 08-17-2011 14:41:14
I am SO EXCITED to see the Mariners finally understand that you have to let kids play and some will sink (Saunders, Peguero) and others will swim (Pineda, Ackley, Carp). This organization had run off quite a few guys who have become contributors elsewhere(I don't think I need to list them) due to impatience.

Is Wells the second coming of Babe Ruth? Nope...but could we be looking at a legit LF of the future? Perhaps and we are finding that out and that is awesome.

Side note... did anyone see that bunt Ichiro laid down with 2 outs last night? What a disgrace...

As for Hultzen... if he becomes a legit #2 starter his selection is a success regardless of what the other guys do.

16. By: Edman on 08-17-2011 17:19:40
It's officially Ruffin. He's already had a cup of coffee with the Tigers, so he's moved quite quickly though the minor league system.

Now have two great baseball names too. Casper and Chance. It's almost becoming a chapter in Mariner folklore....LOL.

17. By: safecochatter on 08-18-2011 15:45:01
Ruffin looked good last night. he brings that knee up so high it looks like he's gonna knock his cap off.

It appears Morrow still has a problem with the m's org. came in high & tight once too often last night and hit wells in the nose. i tried to search how many of the 7 hit batters morrow hit this year were m's,but can't find that info. but even blowers made a comment last night that the m's need to let the blue jays know that they are "there". this m's team does seem to lack a little in the guts department. i thought a couple times this year we need to hit someone back...but it just doesn't happen.

18. By: dawgncarolina on 08-18-2011 16:38:26
Morrow to Wells on Twitter, "Casper, sorry about the pitch that got away tonight. I'm glad it didn't get you too bad. Enjoy Seattle, it's a great city"

I think Morrow just had a pitch get away from him. Doesn't sound like any animosity there to me.

Wells response was pretty awesome too "no worries man. Just grazed the schnaz a little bit, nothing serious. And Seattle is amazing."

I like this guy.

19. By: Edman on 08-18-2011 18:42:47
Retaliation pitches don't a come to the face. They are generally to the mid-body. They're to send a message, not end a career.

Not to mention that Morrow has his own guys to protect. I doubt that Bautista wants a Felix fastball to the Noggin.

20. By: safecochatter on 08-18-2011 18:55:04
i like wells too. he gets in quality ab's. something that's been missing in lf this year.

21. By: maqman on 08-19-2011 13:15:17
I'm liking Wells and Ryan, they are a couple of baseball rats and it will be good to have some gamers like them on the field, in the box and the clubhouse.

You are not currently logged in. If you'd like to comment on this report, please log in.
Haven't created a Prospect Insider account yet? Sign up!