| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 01-02-2009 |
As I mentioned on the sidebar not long ago, the release date of the Handbook had to be pushed back so I could include info and rankings that reflect the additions – Maikel Cleto, Mike Carp and Ezequiel Carrera.Right now I’m shooting, albeit tentatively, for the week of January 21 – all of the info is gathered, just a matter of going back and fitting it in before reformatting the final draft is edited.
Apologies to those who pre-ordered their copy when it was schedule for release between Christmas and New Year’s, but with the new players it was an unavoidable delay, just as the trade with Baltimore caused a year ago.
Now, on to a little bit of a preview.
Within the book you’ll see features such as the organizational rankings – which are the most difficult to put together objectively and intelligently because so many pairs of eyes are needed for me to put that together (since I haven’t seen enough of many of the club’s systems), but those are now complete, and Seattle has landed at No. 17, ahead of the likes of Houston, Cubs, Kansas City, Washington, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Toronto, both New York teams, San Diego, Arizona and Detroit.
I have Seattle rated as the third best system in their own division, with the Halos as another club than which the M’s grade higher. Texas has one of the top systems in the league, and Oakland, thanks to the trade of Dan Haren to Arizona, isn’t far behind having landed Brett Anderson in the deal.
Just ahead of the M’s is Cleveland, Philadelphia, Florida, Cincinnati, White Sox and St. Louis, who wins out over Seattle at No. 16 with a better balance of prospects that are close to the big leagues, such as Bryan Anderson and Colby Rasmus. In terms of pure talent, Seattle would probably grade out in the top 10.
No. 17 overall, third in the division, and coming off 100+ losses and without a cornerstone big league position player; makes the M’s future seem awfully grim.
But the foreseeable fortunes of the hometown nine are anything but grim. In fact, it may be among the brightest in baseball, based on pure, young talent, the vision of the new front office and the financial backing of an ownership willing to pay for a winner.
Alongside the organizational rankings in terms of prospects the book will also include rankings of the clubs with the brightest futures, based on the above – and below - criteria.
Present young talent (club control, under 27 years old, and on the 25-man roster), overall talent (prospects), balance of talent at the big league level and down on the farm, money, environment (including the ballpark) and those making the personnel decisions - that formula spat out the San Francisco Giants at the top, followed by Tampa Bay, Texas, Boston, Atlanta, Baltimore and Milwaukee, in no particular order. The White Sox and Mariners are in the next group, and have a chance to jump up into the top six or eight over the next several months.
The point in this little exercise was to show that the Seattle Mariners could be in a much, much worse position than they are.
We should feel very fortunate not to be fans of the Nats or Padres. How would you like to be in San Diego right now? No current stars outside Jake Peavy, who is still being shopped to the Cubs and Braves, no stars down on the farm and no end of such dreary futures in sight.
handbook-update,-preview
Comments
The following 16 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Slurve on 01-07-2009 19:01:41 I wonder how much this upcoming draft is going to affect our farm system... But the future does looks pretty bright since our young really good talent are about 2 years away. |
| 2. By: StandinPat on 01-07-2009 20:06:47 Jason, Whats your thoughts on Corona's defense at SS and 2b, and Hulett's D at 2nd? With Zduriencik's new emphasis on D, do either of these guys pick it well enough to make up for shortcomings at the plate? |
| 3. By: rocketdawg31 on 01-07-2009 22:50:33 It feels good to be optimistic- and know that I'm being reasonable in that optimism- about being a Mariners fan. Seriously, the last two months have done nothing but encourage me. I'm so loaded with players to watch closely within the system- guys like Efrain Nunez, Mario Martinez, Jharmidy DeJesus, Dennis Raben and the recently-acquired Maikel Cleto. And then there'll be the draft, which I think if done well will completely replenish the system from the Bedard-trade drain...maybe even be better than what it was before that woeful maneuver. Only time- and how the kids perform- will dictate that, though. Jason...I, too, am curious about Corona, I only know the most basic things about him. But, I was quite surprised that the Mariners took a switch-hitting infielder with some tools and no high-level-minors playing experience instead of LHP Donald Veal. Your thoughts? |
| 4. By: Jerry on 01-08-2009 09:32:54 Jason, Nice to see a rational evaluation of how the M's rank. It always seems like people take extreme positions on the M's, either overvaluing guys in the system or putting them among the worst. I agree that they are very much in the middle of the pack in terms of prospects. The other thing I agree with is the direction of the organization. Jack Z has done an excellent job thus far. Just the draft alone will help the M's radically improve the system. The #2 pick will instantly be our best prospect. And picks at #2, 21, 28, 34, and an early 2nd rounder at something like 47ish. That is a lot of high picks. Following this draft will be really fun. Plus, there is a good chance that we will have another really interesting draft in 2010. With Beltre, Bedard, Washburn, Batista, Chavez, Branyan, and Walker coming off the books next year, there is a good chance that we'll have a few extra picks next year too. Those guys are all trade bait as well. If they play their cards right, this is an organization that could rise as quickly as the Rangers and A's, going from mediocre to among the best in a short period of time. |
| 5. By: Jerry on 01-08-2009 09:56:07 Just to add to the above, now that we are in "top prospect list season", one thing that really stands out is how the farm system lacks truly elite, sure-thing prospects. Instead, we have a lot of guys with great tools and talent, but who either have a long road to the big leagues (like most of our good pitching prospects and a lot of the recent international signings) or who have some weaknesses that might compromise their rise to the big leagues (Halman, Saunders, Triunfel, and Moore). Thus, there are a lot of different ways that you could rank these guys. However, it is easy to forget that the purpose of a good farm system is to graduate players to the big leagues. For this reason, I really like the approach taken by Kevin Goldstein at BP, who includes a "Top 10 Talents 25 And Under" with each organizational ranking. The M's have graduated a lot of guys to the big leagues recently, and, if you focus on young talent instead of just guys who fit into the narrow definition of a 'prospect', the organization looks a lot better. You could argue with the order, but I would imagine that Goldstein's list will look something like this: Felix Hernanded Brandon Morrow Jeff Clement Carlos Triunfel Phillippe Aumont Greg Halman Michael Saunders Wladimir Balentien Juan Ramirez Adam Moore That is a very impressive list. Guys like Pineda, Raben, DeJesus, Tuiasosopo (who is underrated by most, IMO), and Martinez don't even make the top 10, and there are still Mark Lowe, Jose Lopez, and Ryan Feierabend as big league players who are 25 or younger. This club has a lot of young talent. |
| 6. By: Jerry on 01-08-2009 09:58:14 I can't believe I misspelled Felix's last name. Wow. |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-08-2009 14:36:53 That's exactly why I did this sort of feature for the book, Jerry. Just because players lose rookie status doesn't mean they should lose prospect status. I've contemplated including all players with one full year of service or less, or even any that have yet to reach three years - first year arbitration. |
| 8. By: jonbbt on 01-08-2009 16:13:48 Have you written anything about Francisco (Jose?) Valdivia? I'm interested in knowing about him. |
| 9. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-08-2009 16:49:03 It's in the book, Jon. As is an SR on Morban. |
| 10. By: jonbbt on 01-08-2009 20:12:55 Awesome. I'll wait for the handbook for his scouting report, but could you possibly clarify his name? I've seen it both ways, Francisco Valdivia and Jose Valdivia. Thanks. Can't wait for the handbook. |
| 11. By: Uncle Al on 01-08-2009 20:27:38 Jason Have you looked at the most recent post by Dave Cameron at U.S.S. Mariner? If he's right about the M's having a $95M budget this year, things are even worse than what he shows as he has left off the Prorated signing Bonuses of $5.525M and the estimated contingency Fund of $3.475M for the 2009 season. Using his same estimates for Hernandez, Bedard, and Heilman, the Budget sits at $101.1M right now. Silva isn't tradable so the only places really possible to save some money are Washburn ($10.35M), Batista ($9M), Heilman ($2M), and Chavez ($2.05M). Beltre and Bedard won't be moved until later in the year if at all. They won't trade Ichiro and probably not Johjima. Zduriencik has his hands tied as he must move Washburn or Batista in any trade he makes and not take back much in payroll. Even if they trade Washburn to the Yankees and take on $7M a year for Swisher in LF, that puts them at about $97.7M which might be acceptable. LF seems to be most important for them to improve and it would allow others in the farm system not to be rushed. The Putz trade looks even better now when you consider the Budget problem as Zduriencik got 4 players on the 25 man roster for the same cost as Putz's salary. Since they missed on Hairston who could make $4M this year, my question is what do they do at 2B if they move Lopez to 1B and then to 3B if Beltre is traded sometime later this year? They have Hulett but since Morse was a SS could he be a one year stop gap? There isn't a hell of a lot more that Zduriencik can do this year. |
| 12. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-08-2009 20:30:22 Al, no offense, but... so what? I don't care if they sign another player. Selling out committed payroll to try to win in 2009 is a Bavasi move, and last I checked, he aint here. |
| 13. By: CrustyJuggler on 01-08-2009 21:28:54 The only way Lopez moves to 1B is if we keep Beltre all year, Branyan gets lost on his way to spring training and we usurp Yuni at SS.... all at the same time. Not likely. |
| 14. By: Uncle Al on 01-08-2009 22:03:14 Jason So What? That's why I asked about Morse. And I sure as hell didn't suggest they should bust the budget this year like Bavasi did last year. What Bavasi did last last year was insane and doing the same thing this year would be even worse for the future. My point is that they are already over the projected Budget and must move Washburn or Batista in a trade to even get close. Zduriencik has done about all he can do this year as his hands are pretty much tied by the Budget at $95M. |
| 15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 01-08-2009 22:38:25 "My point is that they are already over the projected Budget and must move Washburn or Batista in a trade to even get close. Zduriencik has done about all he can do this year as his hands are pretty much tied by the Budget at $95M." Again, Al... so what? The only reason to bring that up is to make a point. What's the point? Simply that they won't likely be spending any more money on the roster? Umm, ok. |
| 16. By: Uncle Al on 01-09-2009 00:37:53 Jason That was it. The roster is pretty much set right where it is now. They're done this year unless they can pull off a trade with Washburn or Batista for a LH bat in LF or pick up a cheap Utility IF and not take on much payroll. |
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