Prospect Insider - Here's who gets Cliff Lee

Here's who gets Cliff Lee

By Jason A. Churchill

By 07-01-2010

As I come across more info on the Cliff Lee trade scenarios, rumors and possibilities, I often get some information that I can't share. But what I can do is start a running system where we rank the suitors in order of how likely it appears to us that each club makes a deal for the left-hander.

Things will change, such as the chances Boston gets more aggressive if Josh Beckett has a setback and Lee is still with the Mariners at the time, or one of the teams below finding a deal that matches their preferences more, such as Philly landing Ted Lilly or Dan Haren, or the Mets trading for Fausto Carmona or Roy Oswalt.

So let's get started.

1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Texas Rangers
4. New York Yankees
5. Minnesota Twins
6. Detroit Tigers
7. Cincinnati Reds
8. St. Louis Cardinals
9. Atlanta Braves
10. Boston Red Sox
11. All other clubs

The Mets are the most desperate and have pieces to move that may be able to get it done, but they aren't an easy favorite because they don't have what Seattle Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is believed to prefer -- near-ready impact bats.

The Phillies would probably need a third team, but the two clubs have done that before, although this time it would cost them RF Domonic Brown or RHP Jarred Cosart and I'm told Brown is untouchable.

Texas has an ownership problem to clear up and aren't going to deal Justin Smoak for a rental. They might be the best match as far as depth in their farm system goes, but they don't have the player we'll call "Jack" from now on -- that near-ready big-league bat that can play a corner spot and hit in the middle of the order as early as right now.

The Yankees have a Jack, his name is Jesus Montero, but nobody seems sure that the Yankees would even think twice about dealing him away for Lee. This might be another scenario where a third team has to be involved, which complicates the matter and doesn't help the chances of a deal getting done.

The Twins don't have a Jack, either, but a Wilson Ramos-Aaron Hicks combo would be a nice offer. Thing is, Hicks is probably a future star -- and the Twins know it.

The Tigers might have to part with Brennan Boesch and Andrew Oliver to get a deal done, unless they, too, get another team in the mix.

Cincinnati has Yonder Alonso in the minors that could be spared, but he's not exactly lighting up Triple-A Louisville and the Reds may not have enough other pieces ... unless Travis Wood, who made his debut Thursday, is also included. I've yet to hear anything on the Reds willingness to pay that much for a rental, so until then they won't crack the top 5.

St. Louis doesn't have a Jack, they don't even have a Jill, with Daryl Jones being their best position player prospect. Shelby Miller is four-plus years away, making the Cards a long shot -- again, without another team helping out.

Atlanta is out of the running I am told, since Arodys Vizcaino was shut down Wednesday, cutting into the Braves system depth.

The Red Sox have a Jack in Lars Anderson, and he'd be a nice piece to get in a package for Lee, but Boston isn't motivated to make such a deal at this time, and might never get to that point this month.

Tomorrow, we'll talk about some things the Mariners can and may do this month, within the Lee situation and outside it where they have other parts that will draw some interest.

here\'s-who-gets-cliff-lee

Comments
The following 26 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-01-2010 17:23:25

Great idea, Jason. We probably- as a community- don't thank you enough for all that you do here. But, it is so appreciated on my end. And while I can't speak for 'em as individuals, I know it is from others, too.

Thanks, man! Times a thousand.

2. By: basebliman on 07-01-2010 17:23:28
Do you think there is anyway the Mets would part with Ike Davis if we added Branyan to the deal?

3. By: StandinPat on 07-01-2010 17:34:45
#2 I had the exact same thought. Any team is highly unlikely to trade away a piece that is currently a big part of why they are in a pennant race, to help out their pennant chances. It's just counter-intuitive, but if throwing in Branyan, who is actually better than Ike currently, makes the move palatable for the Mets, then there might be something there. Maybe...or not.

4. By: randallball on 07-01-2010 17:43:08
Good stuff, Jason. Shannon Drayer gave you props on your Phillies connections today on the postgame show, so I take stock in your listing them #2, and your listing that Brown is untouchable.

5. By: randallball on 07-01-2010 17:47:20
After all I have read on the innerwebs the past few days (all of which is 100% reliable, right?) I really hope we don't deal for Wilmer Flores. Sounds like he specs as a corner OF with no speed, and I saw some video of him hitting (off of Arodys Vizcaino, interestingly enough) and was thoroughly unimpressed with his approach - looked like he was really cheating/guessing on each pitch.

6. By: EvenSteven on 07-01-2010 17:51:57
Here's a Jack: Jack Armstrong, the pitcher out of Vanderbilt. Maybe he'll be available with one of the two picks we'd get by holding on to Lee. Or Jackie Bradley Jr. (Yeah, I know. But you get my drift.)

Looking forward to reading about likelihood that the Mariners will hold on to Lee and take the picks. Lee and Felix back-to-back sure is entertaining baseball.

7. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-01-2010 17:52:00

The only things I would wonder about on that are: 1. Is Zduriencik high enough on Ike Davis to acquire him? What's his ceiling, and should we look for higher? And 2. Branyan probably helps them moreso than Davis will if they're looking to win and go deep in the playoffs THIS year- but with any kind of good year (like what he's having), Branyan will almost assuredly not exercise his mutual option (having learned his lesson about overestimating his value too much in the FA market), and be that much more expensive for the Mets to keep in their fold.

Assuming they're even interested in that.

I know they're not really a penny-pinching org...but I don't know if the Mets forfeit 4-5 years of okay production at cheap levels for a guy like Branyan as their #1 fallback.

8. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-01-2010 18:01:26

I'm not seeing the Phillies, really..or them trading Domonic Brown. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro is a proud man, loathe to publicly admit perceived mistakes.

If he gave up Brown as the main piece for Lee, and the aim for their third consecutive World Series appearance falls short, he'll never hear the end of it from the Phillies fan-base. It'll be worse than the hell he's already gotten for ever dealing Lee in the first place.

He stands a good chance of being fired if he pulls the trigger on this and it's a big ol' miss.

I think Jason's on the right track with them...the only way I see Philly involved is if there's a third team, and if Brown goes nowhere.

9. By: Blowgun7 on 07-01-2010 18:06:23
Why not just take the most highly touted prospects being offered, regardless of whether they are a "Jack"? You could always use these guys in a package for a "Jack".

The Jays and A's dealt Taylor for Wallace. There is nothing stopping Jack from getting a Shelby Miller and then flipping him for something that can help us in 2011 or 2012, whether it's an established player or another prospect.

10. By: southpaw360 on 07-01-2010 18:20:17
Are the Phillies interested in Lee because the Mets are frontrunners for his services? Does Amaro think Lee could go to the Mets and make the Phillies miss the playoffs? If these are true we could get a kings ransom from the Phillies even with Brown off-limits. Would Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart and Scott Mathieson get this trade done?

11. By: ndcohn on 07-01-2010 18:36:30
Why doesn't the three way deal go Jason Werth. Dominic Brown may still be raw, but he's tearing it up and the Phillies have to take a risk in order to get back in it this year, let alone win the world series... If you assume that Brown can be reasonably effective, then it seems like this deal clearly improves the Phillies without giving up Brown.

For instance, the basic outline (not including additional prospects) of a SEA/PHI/BOS trade could be...
SEA-->PHI Lee
PHI-->BOS Werth
BOS-->SEA Anderson

12. By: CrustyJuggler on 07-01-2010 19:22:26
If a slumping Benji Molina is netting Chris Ray and Michael Main from Texas... We need to be talking trade with the Rangers. And quick!

13. By: Edman on 07-01-2010 20:11:52
#11, while it sounds logical to you, it's very hard to find three pieces that three teams can agree on.

And, it's even harder when those three pieces are that valuable to each team.

How often in baseball history have you seen that kind of deal? I certainly don't recall seeing three pieces that valuable moving in a deal. Not to say it hasn't, but I don't recall any.

14. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-01-2010 21:31:43

Let's also not forget that pitching is as volatile a commodity as what there is in baseball- so by that fact alone, we are kind of trying to beat the clock in dealing Lee.

It's not the worst thing to have him be Mariner property until this year's over due to some injury, but if there's a better offer than what two high draft picks would be...?

This is a potentially easy hand for Zduriencik to overplay. Not saying he is, of course...just saying the possibility exists.

15. By: slick on 07-01-2010 23:05:15
Its been written that Blue Jays and Mariners will spend the most on IFA's this year. Jason what do you think the over under is on the M's spending 5 Mil this year. So far I have us at around 3.3 mil with Castillo projected 2mil Torres projected 800 thousand and Calderon at around 500 thousand. Have read that alot of prospect from the DR might pop positive for PED's this year.

16. By: Edman on 07-02-2010 01:27:39
#14, what clock are they trying to beat? I don't recall that Lee has an injury history of breaking down late in the year. Any pitcher could be injured at any time. There is only one thing that should motivate Jack, and that's a good deal, not the worry that Lee could injure himself. That's an unknown factor. If this was Bedard you were talking about, you might have a case.

The right deal is the only thing that should motivate Jack.

17. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-02-2010 01:38:50
#14, what clock are they trying to beat?
Figure of speech. Tie-in to the "volatile commodity" that pitching is.

I don't recall that Lee has an injury history of breaking down late in the year.
Nor do I. But there was a time when Erik Bedard wasn't regarded as fragile, either.

Any pitcher could be injured at any time. There is only one thing that should motivate Jack, and that's a good deal, not the worry that Lee could injure himself.
He should consider every aspect, every detail. Like a good GM should. I'm not saying take three Yorkis Perezes just in the interest of getting something at all for Lee, in a pre-emptive strike before he hurts himself.

That's an unknown factor. If this was Bedard you were talking about, you might have a case.
I have a case, period. And half of it's gone and I'm recycling the bottles as I read your post.

The right deal is the only thing that should motivate Jack.

18. By: malcontent1 on 07-02-2010 02:26:33
Is there any chance that Jose Lopez could be involved in a deal with Boston as a temporary replacement for Dustin Pedroia, or is his lackluster season and the fact that he hasn't played Second Base this year quash that?

19. By: rjfrik on 07-02-2010 03:01:17
Jason,

I'm hearing Kenny Williams might want to get involved b/c he thinks that with the Sox recent surge he believes that a piece or two might be the ticket to the W.S. and he is willing to sacrifice some of the farm.

Any way we could get Flowers and Hudson for Lee and maybe send them Lopez as well for Valencia and Morel?

20. By: shutoutzilla on 07-02-2010 15:10:42
Everyone is all excited over the Lee sweepstakes. The Seattle Mariners have one of the best minds in baseball in Jack Z. He has the rare skill of scouting talent; he knows potential when he sees it. Right now, the Mariners NEED a catcher. Rob Johnson cannot hit the ball and he is a poor catcher; however, he can call a good game and has become King Felix's personal catcher. Josh Bard and Eliezer Alfonzo are both solid backups/great AAA catchers and if Jack Z wants to remain GM and win a World Series with Seattle, he would be a fool to make them starters. Adam Moore is a poor prospect who has sparks of potential, but sparks nonetheless. We traded away Clement last year to Pittsburgh along with Cedeno for Jack Wilson and that was a great trade as Cedeno and Clement have been horrible for the Pirates, Clement was our top catching prospect so that tells people how bad our farm system is. The Mariners are solid with Ichiro and Guitierrez but Milton Bradley is a question. Bradley is not our answer to DH and keeping him for a WS run makes no sense when he has no swagger since he has been on so many teams, but he loves it in Seattle and his numbers are fine for now. Plus, we have Michael Saunders, a young Canadian OF who is still learning the game and does have potential to be a Jason Bay type player. At first base we have Branyan who is our only real power threat and an above average 1B. We need to either keep Kotchman for backup purposes or trade him because he is awful at batting. Dustin Ackley is also our top prospect at 1B and could move Branyan to the DH role. Figgins is our 2B/3B and Jack Wilson is a poor batter but outstanding defenseman and his years our numbered. Jack Z wants to move Lopez and I do not blame him because although he is a good fielder, his batting is average. When we trade Lee we will need a starting pitcher in return and Jack Z is also thinking about moving Bedard who has been a major disappointment. Aardsma has blown five games this year and is starting to make fans realize why he has been on so many teams so our closer is also a question. In short, we need a solid catcher and Jack Z should settle for nothing less than Montero or Ramos. We will also need a solid pitcher in return for Lee. If Jack Z trades for another mid-level outfielder prospect or infielder prospect he has wasted Lee. We have no catcher and we probably need another pitcher. We also need great batters. I trust Jack Z to make the best trade for Lee but it would be STUPID to trade within the division to Texas since Lee could probably lead the Rangers to their first WS and then we would have to put up with the defending WS champions in our division. Plus, Lee would most likely resign with the team he wins a WS with. Trade Lee to Minn or NYY because they have the best prospects. Lee, Bedard, Lopez, Kotchman, Johnson, Bard, Moore, Alfonzo, Bradley, Aardsma, and Rowland-Smith are all STRONG candidates to be traded. Jack Z understands he needs to build a winning ball team NOW because his years are already numbered as is Wakamatsu's. The Mariners have a lot of work ahead and not getting a catcher and pitcher in return for Lee would be a bad move on Jack Z's part, unless he obtains one through another trade of picks one up via free agency over the summer.

21. By: FWBrodie on 07-02-2010 15:43:33
Disagree, wrong, ill-informed, blah blah blah. That post sucked.

22. By: rjfrik on 07-02-2010 17:54:59
what did I just walk into? A shoutzilla blog? Ugh

23. By: micahjr on 07-03-2010 03:55:04
That very well may have been the worst post ever. But I don't remember all the things I've said before.

24. By: rocketdawg31 on 07-03-2010 17:15:56

That #20 post was kind of the equivalent of vomit, all right.

25. By: maqman on 07-04-2010 10:39:44
shoutoutzilla should speak more quietly and not write at all.

26. By: john pileggi on 07-04-2010 18:17:06
I would love to see the Mets get Lee, but wonder what they have. Mejia is hurt, they cannot give up Davis and Wilmer Flores is very young. Angel Pagan has certainly increased his value, but with Beltran not yet even back, can Mets risk giving him up?

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