| By Jason A. Churchill | ![]() | By 12-01-2011 |
The Seattle Mariners are among a handful of clubs interested in free agent first baseman Prince Fielder. It's a small handful, not several, and no matter what is reported, it will never become several -- as in 10 or more. The M's have a need, have the money and payroll flexibility and the will to use it -- at least that is 100 percent my belief.| 1. By: short on 12-01-2011 02:04:21 I'm starting to get a bit excited about the possibility of Fielder joining the M's. Hopefully this would mean Carp goes away, with Fielder playing 1B (due to prestige, not ability) and Smoak playing DH, with the spot start at first. It's a bit early to get excited about the rotation. But only a bit, I think. Look how young it is. If Hultzen pans out this year, the team should: A) Extend Felix ASAP and; B) Try to trade Walker or Paxton for offense. If we can get a quality upgrade at a position of need (synonomous with "a position" for the M's), this team could look very exciting. |
| 2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 12-01-2011 02:09:39 I tried, short, I really did. But I just couldn't find anything you opined with which to disagree. My apologies. :) |
| 3. By: short on 12-01-2011 02:20:29 Star Wars Episode I was the best episode! Olympia is the finest beer ever brewed! I think teenagers should learn to drive in Pintos that only go in reverse! I'm here to help. |
| 4. By: Kevin on 12-01-2011 02:24:06 Jeez, you're making it really hard to not like the idea of signing Fielder. I typically fall on the side of NOT wanting to overpay for Prince, and feel like even the low end estimates are overpaying, but I just can't help but get excited now that there is a legitimate, though still slim, chance he signs here. Thanks for the info Jason! |
| 5. By: xarmyguy78 on 12-01-2011 03:49:04 Thanks for the info Jason, after reading your stuff it puts to rest some of the junk spewed by the "expert analysis" of networks such as MLB and the other sports network |
| 6. By: Gibbo on 12-01-2011 05:16:57 Good one Jason, do you know anything about the Japanese SS Kawasaki? Sounds like he has a pretty light bat but is very keen on getting to play for the M's. He has said he will even take a minor league contract. Could he be our backup SS? I also wonder if Prado would be a good fit, covers 3rd and LF, any thoughts on whether he could fit well? |
| 7. By: mazono on 12-01-2011 05:46:44 If we sign fielder, do you think the m's trade smoak? For a guy like justin upton? |
| 8. By: jgstecker on 12-01-2011 07:36:28 7 is the magic number with Prince. If Seattle offers him 7 years, I think he's coming here. I can see the Cubs going as high as 6/150, but all of the other suitors seem only interested if he comes "cheaper" than advertised. Trading Smoak makes little sense. He's the best candidate for DH and with his value so low he certainly isn't going to bring in an upgrade to the offense. Whatever promises are made to Fielder about playing the field, you're going to want Smoak at 1B before too long. I'd be alright with Carp in LF on a part time basis if we brought Fielder on board. As long as he can keep hitting. |
| 9. By: Marlin Man on 12-01-2011 08:10:47 You get me excited for the coming months JAS Except I just can't stand the thought of watching aanother year of Saunders meekly walking to the plat and shaking in his boots at anything thrown his way- never seen a young man so overmatched and scared shitless as Saunders in my life at the Major League level. He is never gonna pan out- I hope like hell they dump him. M.M. |
| 10. By: skiba on 12-01-2011 09:28:46 Jason - Do you just dismiss Dave Cameron's post here (http://www.ussmariner.com/2011/11/17/star-players-and-attendance/) where he argues that players themselves do not cause a boost in attendance (backed up by Tango)? I agree with your point that we really don't know where the payroll will end up; that is the main thesis of Cameron's argument against signing Fielder. He argues that his contract will eat up too large a percentage once combined with the significant raise to Felix due after next year when Ichiro comes off the books. If payroll were to increase to accommodate Fielder than I think that the argument becomes moot and it needs to be a real consideration. I, for one, am on the side of going all out to get him. |
| 11. By: jgstecker on 12-01-2011 11:15:59 The data that ussmariner presented isn't terribly convincing. There are far too many variables in attendance to make much correlation. How could anyone know how much attendance would have declined if one of those players had not been brought in? How much would attendence drop next year if there is no perception of change on the roster? And without knowing that, how can you demostratre a specific player's net impact on attendance? Plus, the impact of a Fielder signing would be substantially more than many of those examples. Winning sells tickets. Raising the payroll and bringing in Fielder is the fastest way to get back to winning again. |
| 12. By: PositivePaul on 12-01-2011 11:19:03 Star Wars Episode I was the best episode! Olympia is the finest beer ever brewed! I think teenagers should learn to drive in Pintos that only go in reverse! Hey - don't you be dissin' on Oly beer! #OlyStubbiesFTW! |
| 13. By: acqb1424 on 12-01-2011 11:33:01 I too am excited after reading this article. I was in the camp of not signing Fielder as I would rather spread the money around and bring in a couple of quality players but after reading Jason's article I think it makes sense if the numbers don't get too crazy. With our other young players continuing to develop a big bat like Prince can only help. I wouldn't be opposed to trading one of our young starting pitchers but I would rather trade someone like Vargas even though the return won't be a premium player coming back. |
14. By: short on 12-01-2011 11:51:03Hey - don't you be dissin' on Oly beer! #OlyStubbiesFTW! I recently tried Oly in honor of the Oly Rollers roller derby team and it tasted exactly like PBR or Ranier. Probably because they're pretty much the same beer now, as PBR is brewing all these little regional brands. They are all ok. However, Oly is by no means the BEST beer. Not even close. If I could only drink one beer for the remainder of my days it would probably be Deschutes Inversion. Or if I wanted those days not to be long, Stone's Arrogant Bastard. There's more flavor in one sip of those beers than in a six pack of PBR/Rainier/Oly. |
| 15. By: km4_1999 on 12-01-2011 12:34:02 Fielder would look good in middle of lineup but below quote stands out more. Future "may" be fun. "They can make up ground quickly, and with that farm system they can do anything" |
| 16. By: pwhit44 on 12-01-2011 13:23:02 I think it has been so long since the Mariners had a player who hit the ball hard consistently that I take serious offense to people thinking Carp should "go away". I have zero concept anymore of how often, for instance, that Edgar hit a line drive. I've never been so delusional that I thought Carp was anything vaguely comparable to Edgar. Or any other great hitter. But then why do I cringe when fans view Carp as expendable? I understand that he has very little value in the field, and that a lot of his 2011 had to do with a high BABIP, and that his contact rate is low, and that he's not walking anymore. I understand all that. But for the love all that is holy, he hits the ball hard. Sometimes. Which is more often than anyone who has played in Seattle, pretty much ever. I know that's not true. But it sure feels like it. I don't know where this is going, except, my God, I am a Mariners fan. And so are you? Right? And so, Mike Carp. MIKE CARP. |
| 17. By: short on 12-01-2011 13:35:23 phwhit44: I don't think your sentiments are unjustified. Carp hit the ball well last year. Most Mariners didn't. So we should keep Mike Carp. However, on a team where you have three guys who are basically 1B/DH types (should the M's sign Fielder) and all of them hit left handed, you either bench one of them or trade one of them. If the M's choose to trade one, the best choice is Mike Carp. He had a decent season last year, and as Dave Cameron has shown, he may well have already shown us his best. That makes him a "sell high" option. Smoak, on the other hand, may be the beter hitter and is definitely at a "sell low" point after last season. Now the M's may just decide that Carp is valuable as a bench bat. He can spell Wells in left vs. tough RHP's. He can pinch hit. He can be a bulwark against injury at 1B or DH. But this may pose some challenges to building a full roster. Is Carp really worth the roster spot as a glorified PH? |
| 18. By: rjfrik on 12-01-2011 13:42:50 Gotta love that rotation. I love the fact that Paxton and Hultzen have a chance to break camp. Felix, Pineda, Hultzen and Paxton makes me smile! I'm in the camp to sign Prince if the price is right. I'm not sure about 7 years. I think 6 would be my max. There would definitely need to be another acquisition somewhere in my opinion. There needs to be one more bat added to put next to Fielder. Not sure where that would come from. Walker? With Vinny C. and Franklin knocking on the door, this team, if it acquires the right players, will become exciting again. |
| 19. By: pwhit44 on 12-01-2011 14:04:59 short: Trust me, I understand the roster situation. If Fielder ends up here, something will surely be done. If the signing is at the expense of Carp, so be it. |
| 20. By: petermag on 12-01-2011 14:10:43 Curious, if Fielder were to be signed, and Smoak goes to DH not traded like has been suggested elsewhere, what does that do to Smoak's development? Are there other examples of young guys developing as a DH first? I'm not doubting the feasibility of this, I just can't think of a past example off hand. Anyone got any names? |
| 21. By: baseballman on 12-01-2011 15:00:56 I think this just solf me on the idea of spending all that for Fielder. Great work JAC! Listen, it's going to cost a lot of resources to get the impact players this team so desperately needs. Those resources could either be players or salary. This time, I would rather go get the FA Fielder and try to keep to keep the farm as intact as we can. Obviously I can see scenarios where Fielder is just the first in many dominos this off season. I'm excited for the direction this club is going. No stone left unturned. |
| 22. By: Lamda on 12-01-2011 15:01:28 Not sure it does much to Smoaks development at all. I don't think he was ever a threat to be an elite defender at 1B and this gives him more time to focus on hitting for a year or two which is really where his value will ultimately end up being. I'm sure he'd still get 2 starts a week though at 1B to make Fielder's year easier as well. A lot of people are worried about how Fielder will hold up over a 7-8 year contract - well it certainly wouldn't hurt his chances of coming through it cleanly if he could DH half the time. That's why I personally have yet to understand the point of trading Smoak. He seems to project to be a better hitter than Carp and with all the LF'ers we got in our club now - I guess it doesn't make a lot of sense to force him into the LF spot. Add in ussm's analysis today showing the Carp/Wells are essentially the same hitter and it might make more sense to keep the righty bat in LF than 3 Lefty's in a row in the batting order, eventhough Smoak can hit righty when he needs to. |
| 23. By: jgstecker on 12-01-2011 16:29:08 Buster Olney reports that Milwaukee has told Prince they'll go to 6/$120 today. Sounds like Seattle will have to bring $150 million to the table to get something done, not that's a surprise. |
| 24. By: Edman on 12-01-2011 16:33:31 The fact of the matter is that someone like Fielder is gonna cost, and going to come with financial risk. Nearly every player who wants a 5+ year contract is a risk. Risks have to be made to compete. Does anyone in St. Louis really going to expect that Albert is going to be worth what he's paid in year 9 of the rumored contract offer? That is not at all likely. And I don't understand the idea of getting rid of Carp. Yes, he has higher value than most hitters on the team. However, the "sell high" stuff does nothing for me. Is he a great defensive leftfielder? No, but he's also not the next coming of Glenallen Hill. I'd gladly give up a little defense to keep his bat. A Wells/Carp platoon in LF, Fielder at DH/1B, and Smoak at DH/1B works just fine for me. Guti makes up for some of the defensive holes. Not to mention that Seattle travels farther than any other team in baseball. Having three guys you can rotate between 1B and DH only helps to keep them fresh. I wouldn't have a problem with them finding an upgrade as a part-time LF to pair with Carp, but I do think it's a good idea to keep as much homegrown talent as possible. It displays a level of success within the system. |
| 25. By: Mackie on 12-01-2011 17:49:57 Good thoughts, Edman! I think a lot of what happens this winter could depend on how high the organization is on Justin Smoak. I'm all for signing Fielder and keeping Mike Carp too. If they did somehow manage to sign Fielder, and they valued Carp's bat more than Smoak's, it would seem logical to keep Carp and to move Smoak as part of a deal for a more polished hitter to use elsewhere in the lineup. I like Smoak, but he seems to young to become a DH and there must be other teams out there besides the M's who realize his potential and who would value his services. I think they need to be looking for a versatile OF or two who can hit pretty well. If Smoak was packaged for a hitter who could play all the outfield positions, Carp could become the DH. The new player (assuming his defense would be better than Carp's) could start in LF, or could maybe move to CF if Gutierrez' health was still an issue (and in that case, Carp might see some time in LF). Keeping the homegrown talent is good. Having Carp and Ackley in the lineup, possibly seeing Seager/Liddi getting significant time at 3B, keeping Felix and Pineda in the rotation and possibly adding Hultzen and/or Paxton for next year speaks well of the system and its success, as the young players who are ready now would be on the ML roster. Bringing in some players who can help the team be more competitive next year would speak well of the organization's desire to field a more competitive team for next season. It seems to me the rest of the good prospects in the organization seem to be not quite ready for prime time, so I'm not sure where bringing in a few players from outside the organization is going to block any of our kids in 2012. However they do it, I think the team can become more competitive while the rebuild continues. |
| 26. By: rjfrik on 12-01-2011 18:09:14 In my opinion it is way to early to talk about trading Smoak. The casual fan might not realize it, but Justin Smoak is a damn good ball player. He had one bad year that was hampered by a broken thumb (which zapped all his power) a broken nose and huge emotional struggles because his father died of cancer. This is a legit talent and to think that Carp and Smoak are even in the same ball park is a bit ridiculous. If there is one guy you should trade, make it Carp. He literally had 2 good months of baseball in his career and that inflated his value. If you sign Fielder, that's who you should ship. Another note about Smoak. Law released his top 50 players under 25, Smoak came in 35th, even after having the worse season of his life. He was ahead of many other notable position players such as, Parra, Bourjos, Conger, Rasmus, Espinoza and Weeks. And ahead of some great pitchers such as, Porcello, Chachin, Hanson, Hellickson, Nova, Beachy and Minor. Needless to say, Smoak is a guy you hang on to. |
| 27. By: Blowgun7 on 12-01-2011 18:22:10 Jason, could a package of Paxton, Franklin, and Carp bring back an above average hitter? Either a hitting prospect about ready to step into the bigs or a guy with experience in the 25-30 age range? Not talking about an elite guy like Upton, but a bat we could slot into the 5 or 6 hole in the near future. |
| 28. By: jgstecker on 12-01-2011 19:01:54 I second what rjfrik said. I have no interest in trading Smoak. He is exactly the type of player we should be trying to get more of. |
| 29. By: ripperlv on 12-01-2011 20:13:14 Quick, who is the majority owner of the M's? Hiroshi Yamauchi,is the name, and he is a billionaire. As you've noticed, he'll dish out the Yen for the Japanese players, which is why I think we'll be in or Darvish. But my real point is, the M's have the money, or at least have money behind the team. Will they be allowed to operate at a loss, who knows? But if the team is sold, I'm pretty sure, a nice profit awaits the seller, so a signing like Fielder would be a wash. I think JZ is doing a good job of rebuilding (sans Figgins). If he thinks we should get Fielder, I'm behind it. |
| 30. By: valencia on 12-01-2011 20:16:01 Smoak and Carp both need to be traded if we get Fielder. We don't have time to waste 1-2 years of Fielder's 3-4 year prime and Felix's 3 years to get Smoak and Carp to hit theirs. Trade them for polished players with lesser ceilings and make a run starting now. If we're going to wait 1-2 years to compete, we can just sign Votto, or Ellsbury, or Zimmerman. If we sign Fielder it should be because we want to compete now...who's ready for that? Trade some arms too if we have to. Sell the farm and make a run. And the "Smoak is too young to DH" is a terrible argument. Carp is only a year older yet people are fine with him DHing. |
| 31. By: Mackie on 12-01-2011 20:48:05 I'm not just a "casual fan", and for the record, I like Smoak better as a guy who could well be better than Carp a few years down the road. I like his potential, and if he can start figuring things out at the plate he could be a very valuable player for Seattle. I would prefer to see them keep him at least for another year, or more. I mention Smoak as a trade possibility because I believe he would bring more in trade than Carp might. If the team wants to contend sooner, and Fielder is acquired to play Smoak's position, there might be more of a need to figure out what to do with Smoak. And as for Smoak as a DH, I just don't see taking anyone who is that young and DH-ing them if they have a halfway decent glove, and I believe Smoak's glove may be more important to the team than Carp's, despite Carp also being able to play LF. The front office is undoubtedly considering a few of these things, and they know more about it than most of us do. |
| 32. By: Edman on 12-01-2011 21:45:26 #30, you make one grand assumption.....that Votto, Elisbury and Zimmerman will be available, in the future. All three could sign with their current team. Then what? Fielder is available now, no question about it. |
| 33. By: Boy9988 on 12-02-2011 00:39:49 If Fielder signs in Seattle it will be a 6yr 135Mill contract with a 7th year team option at 25 mill with a 3-5 mill buyout. The contract will probably be back-loaded, or at least less in the first year. |
| 34. By: everettdude on 12-02-2011 01:56:51 If we sign Fielder, we should trade him after year three. With his body type and genetics, he will decline quickly. |
| 35. By: petermag on 12-02-2011 09:01:44 I think this talk of body type is silly with Prince being as young as he is. He's still 27 years old. His dad may have been fatter than him and was productive through the age 32. He's got 5 years of productivity in him. |
| 36. By: Edman on 12-02-2011 10:37:48 Agreed, petermag. It's the chicken little syndrome. There aren't enough players with a similar body who have played baseball, so the idea that anyone knows what he'll be like in seven years, is not well founded. You don't sign a player like that with the assumption that you trade him with three or four years left on his contract. #33, you may be close, but I would suggest that you not use specific numbers. You have no idea what kind of contract he'll get. Baseball is horribly unpredictable when it comes to giving out contracts. Who in the would would have expected that Tom Hicks would give Afraud a contract that was at least 20% more than any other team would have paid? All it takes is one misguided team to change the landscape for all the other teams. Winners take risks, losers play it safe. There's risk with every large multi-year contract. |
| 37. By: Boy9988 on 12-02-2011 11:50:17 #36 That's why I said specifically Seattle cause, like someone else here said, I could see the Cubs going nuts and giving him a lot more. But if the Cubs ultimately bow out, I'm not sure there is anyone in the landscape that will give him that kinda contract. Too bad for Fielder, he hit free agency at the wrong time, no one to drive up the price. |
| 38. By: valencia on 12-02-2011 12:30:35 Doesn't even have to be body type - just look at the recent 1Bs who started declining after 30, Teixiera, Howard, Pujols. Fielder isn't going to give you 7 years of 5 WAR production. No one is, as a FA. You take 4-5 good years and pay for the 2-3 bad years. If you don't like the bad years don't play the FA game. I think it's wrong to think no one will drive up the price. If we're in, Angels and Rangers will drive up the price as high as it gets for us. Division rivals will always try and drive up the price, real or not. Boras is great at extracting the maximum amount teams are willing to pay. If you don't think there's a team out there willing to give 8 years, you haven't seen the closers market recently. |
| 39. By: maqman on 12-02-2011 13:32:05 No disrespect but I don't think Fielder is worth what he and Boras say he is and the M's are better off sticking to Z's plan of building from within. What percentage of nine digit signings work out? Not many. Z knows what he's doing, a little patience is order at this juncture. |
| 40. By: safecochatter on 12-02-2011 13:53:41 Does anyone know if the new cba changed the super two rule at all? I'd be shocked if Paxton made the team out of spring training unless there was a change in that rule. The guy was a difficult sign,why wouldn't he continue to be difficult as far as arby and eventual fa? imho that makes him a tick more likely to be moved than some of the other young pitchers. |
| 41. By: Edman on 12-02-2011 13:59:37 magman, what top tier free agent is worth what they are paid? Even if productive, there is no real value. A total rebuild internally is nearly impossible, unless you have an incredible farm system, which no team in baseball has. There will always be portions of the team's needs that cannot be adequately filled from within. For Seattle, that need is a productive middle of the order bat to anchor the offense. Smoak may one day be that bat, but he's at least three years away from MLB maturity. Z's plan was dictated by necessity. The lack of flexability in the budget and a non-productive farm system determined his course. Luckily, the front office has allowed him to do what's necessary. But, at some point, they and the fans are going to want to see marked improvement. Rebuilding will only be acceptable for a small window. Don't kid yourself, if Jack had the money to spend when he first got here, he would have used it on free agents. It's a stark reality in baseball. Jack's plan is not to rebuild from within, it has never been his plan. Jack's plan is to be able to build and sustain from within. To not have to rely on outside sources to fill every need. The development of the minor league system is for self-preservation. My personal opinion is that adding a bat like Fielder contributes greatly to the development of Seattle's other assets. How does WAR measure the affect of having a presence of a Fielder in the middle of the lineup, to take the pressure off of developing hitters like Smoak, Carp, Ackley, Seager, Wells, etc.? It's bigger than some might think. Fielder is the kind of guy who can carry that kind of weight. Does it need to be him specifically? No. But it needs to be that kind of bat. He carries a big reputation. Sometimes, perception plays a factor. Patience is running out, and it should be. I'm not saying that the philosophy should be abandoned. But, there need to be pieces added to compliment what Seattle does have. Seattle has nobody, outside of some hope and prayer longshots in the farm system to fill that need. It's time to step up and take some calculated risks. |
| 42. By: rjfrik on 12-02-2011 17:12:14 While I don't agree with Edman's definitive statement that "Smoak is at least three years away from MLB maturity" I do agree with his assessment of the situation surrounding the Mariners. That fact is, time is running out. If Z and company throw up another stinker waiting for the farm to develop, he very well could be out. The attendance is down to 49% capacity. That's dreadful especially when just under a decade ago the M's were the hottest ticket in Seattle. Z has to field a competitive team that has near a winning record. They have to show signs of serious improvement, signs of hope. Maybe not a winner in 2012 but a definite winner in 2013 or he could see his walking papers. What better way to start that push then to sign Fielder. Edman is right, we need a big bat that can take the pressure off the young guys, Ackley and Smoak more importantly. A middle order of Ackley, Fielder, Smoak would at least make pitchers somewhat honest and have to think about what they are doing up there. When it was Ackley, Kennedy, Smoak opposing pitchers could stay on cruise control. |
| 43. By: everettdude on 12-02-2011 19:45:07 Ref Petermag Actually Prince Fielders father was 4" taller and 30 lbs. lighter than his son. Prince will be 28 in May and its considered his age 28 season. While his father was still useful player in his year 32 season, it was a shadow of his peak during his age 26 - 29 seasons. He was clearly in decline after that and was out of baseball after his age 34 season. Paying Prince $20M - $25M+ per year for his decline phase? I would rather get the remaining 2 or 3 years of his prime and then trade him while he still has value. Let someone else pay him into retirement. |
| 44. By: Edman on 12-02-2011 20:44:50 everettdude, what you'd like, and what is practical in baseball are two different things. I fully don't expect that Fielder will be remain as productive in the last two years of his contract, however, it doesn't mean that he still won't be productive. And, by the time those last years roll around, inflation may make whatever he's paid today reasonable when those years come. Many seem to think that all factors remain the same. Everything slides to some extent, it's just by how much. |
| 45. By: kyle_mahlstedt on 12-03-2011 00:49:10 If the Mariners sign Fielder, they ought to trade Smoak, Saunders and Walker for Justin Upton... |
| 46. By: Jon O on 12-03-2011 01:28:52 Off of the Prince topic (hard to not like the thought of him in the M's line-up). What about this trade idea: SEA Trades: Paxton, Seager & Saunders TOR Trades: Travis d'Arnaud (C) & Travis Snider |
| 47. By: KingFelix on 12-03-2011 10:00:17 Kyle, That would be a fun lineup to watch everyday. RF Ichiro 2B Ackley LF Upton 1B Prince DH Carp CF Gutz C Olivio / Jaso SS Ryan 3B Seager R Felix R Pineda L Vargas R Beaven L Hultzen |
| 48. By: aerichner on 12-03-2011 12:54:23 @45 - Arizona has no need for Smoak with Paul Goldschmidt on the roster. |
| 49. By: olystuart on 12-04-2011 19:49:54 I'm in the "Keep Carp Camp," because why trade your depth? Is three players too many to have in your org to fill two spots (and that's assuming you don't want Carp in left, which there are arguments against)? I don't think so. Michael Barr on rotographs notes: for 2011 home runs, "Prince Fielder averaged 409 feet, Jose Bautista averaged 406, Matt Kemp averaged 412, Albert Pujols 403," and 24/5 year old Carp? 413 feet. As he posted a career low walk rate that's likely to improve. |
| 50. By: KingFelix on 12-04-2011 23:01:40 Heyman also tweets that he's received some conflicting reports on the Mariners' involvement in Fielder. Two executives say they "badly want" Fielder, while two Mariners sources say they have little money to spend. I can only guess what two Mariner sources say we have little money to spend? Howie and Chuck? I guess we might be bringing payroll down in 2012. Man, it is tuff being a Ms fan. |
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