Prospect Insider - Is Felix Watching?

Is Felix Watching?

By Jason A. Churchill

By 10-24-2008

I hope the Latin country of Venezuela has satellite television. For the sake of the future of the Seattle Mariners, and for the developing mental approach of 22-year-old right-hander Felix Hernandez.

The first two games of the World Series should be considered Chapters one and two in the new "How Felix Should Pitch" DVD.

Why?

Because both Tampa Bay and Philadelphia have pitchers that are proving how important a change-up is to a starting pitcher's repertoire, and even the Phillies' setup man has a good one.

Phils' southpaw Cole Hamels has what might be the best change in baseball, regularly removing 8-10 miles per hour off the velocity of his fastball. In game one of the series, Hamels threw over 90% fastball-change, using his curve ball all of 11 times in the entire game.

The result? Seven strong innings and a 1-0 lead in the Fall Classic.

Typically, Hernandez throws 11 breaking balls to the first five or six batters and finds himself pushing 90 pitches come the fifth or sixth inning.

Eleven breaking balls and probably zero change-ups, that is.

Rays' game two starter James Shields is darn near the righty version of Hamels, utilizing a low-80s dead fish after a fastball clocked in the 89-92 mph range.

Phillies reliever Ryan Madson also employs a plus changeup and throws it a lot, creating a rather large differential between the 83-mph pitch and his mid-90s heater.

If you take a look at what hitters give Felix fits, it's not right-handed batters, it's left-handers. And if you ask anyone in baseball what is the great equalizer when a right-handed pitcher is facing an off-handed batter, the smart ones will tell you a good change evens things out.

Left-handed batters have hit .273 off Hernandez in his career, including .275 with a .797 OPS in 2008. He allowed 17 home runs last season - 13 to lefties.

If you don't think the league has learned that Hernandez has major trouble with left-handed hitters, think again. In 2005, Felix's first stint in the big leagues, fewer than half of the batters he faced were lefties.

In 2006 and 2007, that number rose to 51 and 53 percent, and in 2008 it reached 58 percent. Opposing managers are clearly scheming against Hernandez's problems against LHBs.

To combat that and take another step toward stardom, Hernandez simply needs to throw his change-up more often. It's not a great pitch right now, and his command of it isn't but average or so, but all of his efforts this winter and spring should be all about his change-up.

He has flashed a plus change in the past, but threw just 174 of them a year ago in 31 starts, just five percent frequency.

In 2008, American League hitters in general hit .249 off the change, .253 off the slider, .266 off the curve ball and .284 off the fastball.

Left-handers batted .233 off change-ups, .229 off change-ups from right-handed pitchers with a .387 slugging percentage.

Lefties hit .238 off Felix's change last year, compared to .289 versus his fastball and .265 versus his curve.

While Hernandez could stand to shore up the command of all of his other offerings as well, I think he could show up in 2009 with the same exact command of his fastball, curve abd slider as he had last season and as long as his change was much more a part of his game, he'd be light years better.

This is the second winter in a row I'm making this suggestion, Felix, but... throw your change more. A lot more. Particularly to left-handed hitters.

Don't take my word for it, the numbers don't lie.

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Comments
The following 6 comment(s) for this article are shown below:

1. By: Marlin Man on 10-26-2008 10:22:16
Did Mel ever push this- ie did he TRY and get Felix to use it more?? M.M.

2. By: Jason A. Churchill on 10-26-2008 14:17:55
Not to my knowledge, because by my count Felix only threw more than nine change-ups in a game six times... six times! Hamels, Moyer, and Shields, for example, never had a game in which they threw fewer than 30% change-ups.

3. By: starbuckdog on 11-06-2008 12:56:09
It seems to me that the M's were much more dedicated to a philosophy of teaching and developing the change throughout the organization when Bryan Price was here. Not sure if Price was behind that directive, but it seems the emphasis left when Price left.

4. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-06-2008 13:14:04
Price has only been gone a year now, and I didn't see a difference in philosophy at all. Dave Wallace, who took over for Price, is also a believer int he change up. It looks as if they started pushing more work on command, but I didn't see a let up on the FB, CB, CH trio.

5. By: jp1717 on 11-06-2008 14:36:17
Good to see PI back. Is Wallace someone who should be considered for the M's pitching coach, or is he more valuable in his current role?

6. By: Jason A. Churchill on 11-06-2008 20:53:33
I like him in the role he had a year ago, but Zduriencik and staff might make a change just to have their own guy. I haven't heard. Wallace has both scouting and coaching experience, which is quite valuable. I'm not sure Mel doesn't return for the sake of Felix and Morrow. I don't know how much credit Mel should get for their development, but both took big steps forward last year.

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