|By Jason A. Churchill||By 01-16-2013|
|1. By: Paul Martin on 01-16-2013 16:50:13|
This is a terrible move! They give up one of their best hitters, who can also catch, and is under team control through 2015 for a 1B/DH rental player. If you think Morse is going to be our everyday right fielder, you haven't watched him play the outfield recently.
I sure hope Jack has other moves in the works that will make this move make sense?
Worst trade Jack has ever made.
|2. By: jordan on 01-16-2013 16:51:42|
I like it. Put Morse in RF. Hope that Guti and Saunders can carry enough ground to help him out.
you going to need to give Guti days off so thats where Saunders can slide over and you can plug in a Jason Bay or Raul or Wells. Im assuming Wells or Bay wont make this club so theres that to be played out.
Depending on how Smoak does, you have that option on your bench now in Ibanez/Bay to take his spot and move Morales to 1B.
I'm sure a catcher will be signed so when Montero is not catching, he slides over to DH and Smoak 1B vs LHP and Morales vs RHP
Smoak is going to get a a chance to earn his ABs.
Zunino will obviously start in AAA. If we are out of it near the deadline, we can trade a Morse or Morales and bring Zunino up and move Montero to DH.
|3. By: safecochatter on 01-16-2013 16:53:08|
Not sure how all this is gonna work out. My guess is Smoak won't see Peoria this spring unless it's in road uni. But if nothing else, Jack Z has two very good trade chips in july now.
|4. By: Edman on 01-16-2013 16:56:52|
Some will panic, because Jaso has an large following. It's not certain if he had a career year, or if he might revert back to his time with the Rays. But clearly, the M's needed some power. Morse can play SS or 3B in a pinch. Is he a great fielder? Hell no, but he's also not the next coming of Glenallen Hill, either.
The M's need bats, and bats with power. I'll give up some defense in LF, especially with the change in diamention, for a hitter. Batwise, Morse is better, and from the right-handed side, something they lacked. Is Morse a worse fielding outfielder, than Jaso is a catcher? Neither will win a gold glove. And, Jaso can only DH and catch.
I'm neither overjoyed or disappointed. Zunino is on the way, perhaps as soon as the middle of this season. It was a matter of time before something had to happen. This will not be the end of the world. And, I agree that there will most likey be more moves to come. There is nothing wrong with acquiring as much talent as possible, then sorting it out.
As far as another catcher, sign me up for Kelly Shoppach.
|5. By: greentunic on 01-16-2013 16:56:52|
Boy I sure hope there is SOMETHING else in the works. This deal did not make me happy. While I will try to wait till openening day to assess the offseason, It seems like we've been hoping "the next stage will fix things" all winter.
C'mon M's, C'mon Jack. Please have a plan.
|6. By: Edman on 01-16-2013 17:02:44|
I was right, over-reaction so far. Jaso had one good season in Seattle, on a bad offensive club, and we're ready to panic? If he was on a good offensive club, would it have gotten much notice?
|7. By: aerichner on 01-16-2013 17:05:35|
I dont mind this at all because we keep our prospects. John Jason was a p latoon guy, cool guy, cool beard, cool personality but come on, there's no reason to hate this deal. And if you do, just think of it as Josh Lueke for Mike Morse. :-)
We can all try to make up lineups but that would be stupid. Like Jason says, more trades/moves will happen. All in all, I was surprised by the deal ...but I like it. And I like that more moves will be made. And I like that we still have our prospects.
|8. By: Paul Martin on 01-16-2013 17:09:02|
We are building for the future, and I just don't understand trading a piece that should fit in our future for a one year rental player? Maybe now is the time to sell high on Jaso, and he won't play as well next year, but why bring Oakland in to get a young pitching prospect to make a 3 way happen? Couldn't we just trade one of our own pitching prospects for Morse and keep Jaso?
I am liking each move Jack makes less and less. How many of our 12 or 13 offensive players on the 25 man roster are 1B/DH types?
After his contract runs out Jack only gets to run the draft. Someone else needs to be in charge of trades and free agent signings.
|9. By: Shawnuel on 01-16-2013 17:12:53|
Interesting piece on Fangraphs (Rotographs, actually)showing comps for Mike Morse heading into his year 31 season. Not a rosy picture.
|10. By: Edman on 01-16-2013 17:20:13|
Jaso fit into our future? Zunino will be the M's catcher of the future, and as a DH, Jaso is only average. While you are working on the future, you have to be concerned about the present. It's not like Morse is 35 years old. And, rental players can be resigned, can they not? If he plays well and fits in, Jack has a better opportunity to sign him before he reaches free agency.
Jack clearly values his pitching prospects, and is going to try to keep them, if he can.
Some of you are completely unreasonable and willing to jump to conclusions. Jaso is not a premiere player. He's a slightly better than average player, who looks great in a offensivly challenged group.
Chicken Little lives.
|11. By: Dmitriy1992 on 01-16-2013 17:24:17|
Is it just me or is anyone else kind of wish we would of just traded Jaso for Cole+whomever is the PTBNL? We would than have four potential front line pitchers all within two years of the majors. If not he could of been a very valuable piece to acquire a bat this offseason or the next (Stanton I hope)?
|12. By: dangayle on 01-16-2013 17:24:27|
It was just what I woke up this morning dreaming about, trading our only true major league catcher (platoon or not) for yet another DH bat-only player. Jaso was a greater value than Morse, even if he wasn't perhaps as good of a hitter, according to some metrics.
Jaso. Cheap. Controlled. Good at hitting 75% of hitters. Good enough defense. Plays an actual position of need for M's.
Morse. Less cheap. Rental. Good at hitting the ball hard. Not good enough defense. Plays a position that according to the Hall of Fame isn't a position, and that we have a glut of.
|13. By: Paul Martin on 01-16-2013 17:34:28|
@10 Jaso was young, cheap, and under club control. Zunino is at least a year away. If we were getting an MLB ready starting pitcher back for him, or a quality hitting prospect, I would have been fine with trading Jaso but not for a one year rental at a position already crowded.
@11 I totally agree with you, excellent point!
|14. By: dewey on 01-16-2013 17:35:45|
I count 6 DH/1B guys Smoak,Morales,Carp,Rauuuul,Morse and i believe there first string catcher Montero ouch .Who is gonna catch a kid who has played 2 months of pro ball and none above 2A? That really isnt fair to Zunino but if thats the new plan then lets hope it works.Jaso wasnt a great catcher a nice part time guy i think Morse is much better but we have that position allready we just spent 2.9 million on RAUUUUUL to be are DH i thought? Im just a little confused of how the roster is put together myself also our rotation isnt good i would rather him spend some money there myself way to many holes needed to fill then a dh thats my opinion
|15. By: Paul Martin on 01-16-2013 17:40:11|
Morse was injured last year (and has been injury prone in the past). Lets hope he fails the physical and the trade doesn't go through.
|16. By: Edman on 01-16-2013 17:42:36|
OMG, you really think Jaso, to the baseball world, is worth an MLB starting pitcher? He's seen as a platoon player. When was the last time you saw a starting pitcher traded for a platoon player? Not only that, he's a one position platoon player, unless you classify DH as a position.
You assume he's a rental player. How many players resigned with their existing clubs, before hitting free agency. And, let's take it a step further. If he has a good/great season, can't he be traded before the seaon ends, to a club depsrate to make the playoffs?
Where's your list of better trades for a platoon player, who is a good hitter on a Mariner club, and an average hitter on a good club?
|17. By: Edman on 01-16-2013 17:44:29|
There are a few catchers available. It's not like the well has gone dry. Just because there isn't a catcher on the roster today, doesn't mean there won't be by spring training.
|18. By: Gibbo on 01-16-2013 17:44:42|
Thanks JAC, I'm talked off the ledge.... definitely more moves to happen though. Is Jason bay thinking right now, why did I bother?
Jaso had a good following here but I guess part of that is that we sucked last year so his numbers really stood out. It is pretty amazing how much the opinions on this trade are going to differ
|19. By: Edman on 01-16-2013 17:48:29|
One thing for sure, baseball has the most GM wannabes in sports. As Mike Hargrove once said (paraphrasing):
"It's like inviting people over for a BBQ, and everyone telling they can cook a steak better than you."
|20. By: Galway on 01-16-2013 17:59:58|
To me its out of context because clearly something else has to occur.
Morse really can hit but really is not servicable with a glove.
One or two of Smoak, Marales, or Montero have to go in order for the roster to make sense.
Jason Bay is a decent fielder but if you haven't seen him much the past two years he is not the same player. I'm rooting for him because he was just great guy in NY despite being a disater on the field but to me he is at best ever going to be a bench bat and equally likely to me he never makes an MLB opening day roster again. I hope not but wouldn't be surprised.
|21. By: short on 01-16-2013 18:01:35|
Fister was striking out about 5.5 guys per nine innings with an xFIP of about 4.00 when he was dealt. He looked like a decent, but not great pitcher and we got a couple of ok players for him. After he left, he started pitching like Zack Greinke. (Their numbers last year are weirdly similar.) Unless Jack somehow should have known Fister would get that much better I can't hate on that trade.
I will say I hate the Morrow for League trade about as much as this one. Trading a decent starter for a decent reliever never made sense to me and hasn't turned out well at all for the M's.
Here's the thing about Morse: he's a really lousy outfielder. And if he plays outfield he is very likely to get hurt and play even less than Jaso would. If he plays first base or DH, he's taking AB's from one of our other better hitters like Morales or Montero. And if Morse plays outfield he hurts you with his defense.
Just don't see it. Was Jaso way below average as a catcher in some way even the advanced stats don't account for? If so, then...ok, I guess.
|22. By: Edman on 01-16-2013 18:07:45|
short, you're making some mighty big assumptions about outfield injuries as compared to catching injuries. Catcher take a lot of abuse, moreso than outfielders. So, I don't think there is more chance for one to be hurt than the other. All it takes is on hard slide at home, and a catcher could be out several weeks. It's a horribly punishing position.
|23. By: Galway on 01-16-2013 18:12:18|
Being in VA seen a bunch of Morse w the Nats, he is a better hitter than I think he gets credit for but it can't be overstated how bad he is as an outfielder.
Finally remembered Ryan Church is the guy Bay reminds of post concussion. Both have comprable issues after.
|24. By: jordan on 01-16-2013 18:16:18|
Look. I don't think you can overstate how big a role saunders and guti can play to help Morse. Morse was playing with Harper in CF..in all fairness Harper isnt Guti or Saunders in CF. If you look at post #2..there are ways to get all these guys in the lineup. The Ibanez signing is odd but assuming that he comes off the bench, it works. Jason Bay/Wells wont be getting much time unless an injury occurs. There are another guys that still need to prove themselves (Smoak Montero vs RHP) where we can make this work and its not that hard.
|25. By: Dmitriy1992 on 01-16-2013 18:16:21|
I agree with your post only way I see Morse playing outfield is if Guti is healthy going into this year. Both Guti and Saunders cover a lot of ground and allows the M's to play a not so good/terrible defender in LF.
Still I add this trade to the Marrow trade. I think I would have rather acquired Cole then Morse. I get that Morse can help offensively but he helps at the position we are best at.
Not really sure what Jack Z is doing this off season. I like the Morales acquisition and was in favor of adding a Bay/Ibanez type player (by no means add both). Now he adds another 1B/DH type player (can play some outfield I guess). Just please Z don't trade Montero or Smoak. I think both are going to have breakout type years this season.
|26. By: Edman on 01-16-2013 18:17:54|
There is surely more to come. Seattle needs at least a catcher. The one who has to worry is Smoak. I don't think Jack wants to trade him. He's the one true young power hitter of the group of kids. He's a bit of a mystery. But, he's clearly have to earn his way onto the team, if he stays in Seattle.
|27. By: titans12 on 01-16-2013 18:26:44|
I love the deal.I like Jaso but we need a catcher to split time with Montero that is better on defense. Sign Bourn and we got a an offense. Morse will handle LF.
|28. By: Edman on 01-16-2013 18:51:17|
With two outfielders as good a Guti and Saunders, and the change in field diamentions, they can cheat a little to help cover up some of Morse's defensive holes. Not to mention how much ground in left, Ryan can cover.
I'll trade 30+ homeruns for a few bad fielding plays. In close games, there are always defensive substitutions. For all the bad things that were said about Raul's defense in LF when in Seattle, his value to the offense was greater than the loss in defense to the team.
|29. By: dewey on 01-16-2013 19:04:33|
I watch every Mariner game i can proably 145 a year and i dont remember seeing Guti play to much the last 2 years? I rerad alot of IFS in peoples comments.Im not so sure Harper isnt a better CF then Saunders just one guys opinion.We have to many of the same guys thats the issue did we just waste 2.9 on RAUUUUUL? iM LOST IF mORSE PLAYS LF AND mORALES PLAYS DH and Smoak plays 1st where does Raul play? also why did we give Bay any guarenteed money 500 k when the Muts just paid him off thats my concerns as a fan
|30. By: rotoenquire on 01-16-2013 19:04:57|
So let me get this straight. Morse the guy whom I was told by some on this site was a deal JackZ would never make. Cause he was smarter than that and doing such a thing was a dumb idea. Hhhhmmm So you all going to say the same thing now or jump on the Morse band wagon now? lol
I like the deal. Zunino is going to be our starting Catcher by mid season. add Montero too that and jaso had no place to be.
Morse is a solid add. We all complained about there being NO OFFENSE and how we would all sacrifice a little D for more offense. We got the offense we need and now some of you still arn't happy. Let it all play out during the season. I think you all maybe happy. OH and could this added player maybe play a hand into more talks with Upton to get that trade done again? Maybe.
|31. By: Gibbo on 01-16-2013 19:05:45|
Looking at your line up Titans it is actually pretty good. I would swap Ackley with Seager. Ackley would be better lower in the order just while he gets back to basics.
If Bourn can be had at the right price I would take the deal.
We really need to go get a starting pitcher.... Carp must be traded shortly
|32. By: Gibbo on 01-16-2013 19:11:11|
Dewey - Bay got gauranteed money so that if he comes back and plays great he can be traded or does well for us. But there would of been a few teams willing to offer him a ST invite so when you pay him you know that if he does bounce back, then he does it with us, not another team and if he fails $1M doesnt break the bank. Its a risk and insurance policy
|33. By: FatBat on 01-16-2013 19:17:53|
Everyone just hated traded all those prospects for upton but we add morales and morse and gave up no prospects? And you still complain? Get a life! Congrats Z for adding 50 hrs 160 rbi's and keeping all are prospects. Some people will never be happy. And some of us know you can have the best defense in the world, but if you can't score it means nothing! I for one will be smiling when we score over 5 runs a game knowing our minor league is intact. I mean Jaso? A back up catcher? With only 300 ab's set aside for him this year? I'm with you edman show me Kelly shoppack!
|34. By: Mackie on 01-16-2013 19:24:20|
I'm fine with the trade as long as the Mariners find room for Morse in the lineup and don't have to endure his glove too often. People wanted hitting, well we got hitting. I like having the bats of both Morales and Morse in the lineup.
In order for that to be accomplished, it is looking to me like Morales is going to play a lot at 1B, and Morse could end up used as half DH (maybe split that with Montero), and half OF (in RF or LF). In my opinion, that seems to potentially diminish Smoak's time to the point I wonder if they have a deal in the works that includes him. I think Safecochatter might be on the right track in comment #3; if Smoak doesn't end up in AAA, I think he could be gone soon.
And unless they are assuming Zunino will be up this season and relied upon extensively (which maybe isn't a sure thing) they'd need another catcher to help things out. You can count me in with those who would like to see the M's sign Kelly Shoppach, as I think he would be a good add as a sort of stopgap/backup type, both as a backup to Montero and as a placeholder until Zunino is ready.
|35. By: titans12 on 01-16-2013 19:26:30|
We are working on trading for Porcello. Wells and Capps is what Detroit wants. No way Bay makes the team. Shoppach would be perfect-
|36. By: Paul Martin on 01-16-2013 19:28:59|
Catcher not yet on team
Cut or Traded:
Thoughts on roster:
1. If the end game was to get Morse, why trade Vargas for Morales?
2. Morales, Morse, and Montero are you best offensive players and need to be in the lineup everyday.
3. We are going to have to have Montero catch a ton of games for this to work. Catcher we sign will likely be a part time player. Would love to sign or trade for two more catchers, but with this DH/1B heavy roster, there is no room. We would have to keep Smoak in AAA or trade low on him to get that 3rd catcher.
4. I was looking forward to seeing if Smoak could finally put it together this year, but now thanks to Morse we will never know (unless we give him away and he does it for another team - déjà Vu when we gave Morse away last time. History repeats itself in Seattle!).
|37. By: rjfrik on 01-16-2013 19:41:47|
Listen, Bay isn't making this club unless a couple more guys (Wells, Smoak) are sent packing. Bay was an insurance policy. He will come to S.T. and won't make the team, in my opinion. He's done.
Ibanez is primarily a bench bat. There is no way JZ sees him as anything more, or at least I hope not.
Jaso had no future on this team. We always knew we were going to have to sign a back up catcher even with Jaso on the team, so who ever that ends up being he essentially is taking Jaso's spot. Once Zunino is up here, he is your regular moving forward.
And who knows, maybe Montero has been working on his receiving skills over the off season and becomes passable behind the plate. If there is one position to fit his bat, that makes it easier to field a team, it's catcher. Might as well give it a go and see if it works.
JZ has to see Morse has an OF, with Morales, Smoak, Ibanez entrenched in the DH duties, there is no room for him anywhere else. So hopefully Franky is healthy and him and Saunders can off set Morse defensive.
Bottom line is this trade makes our lineup better. Was I for acquiring Morse? No because, in my opinion, there wasn't room for him. But I believe after Upton turned us down, JZ needed to go after plan B, even if it wasn't his number one option.
I believe there is another move or two JZ is trying to make to complete the roster. I do believe Morse makes it easier for the M's to be a .500 club more then Jaso.
|38. By: Gibbo on 01-16-2013 19:46:14|
Morse offers very nice insurance if Smoak fails Morse and Morales can cover 1st and DH. If Smoak busts out then he is our 1B Morales to DH and Morse goels to LF and Bay can make the bench if Smoak went to AAA.
Jaso goes and free's up playinmg time at C for Montero. Morse also gives you emergency cover at 3B if needed.
|39. By: whereswoody on 01-16-2013 19:54:22|
Even though it doesnt make sense for the A's, you cant question it because of all the great moves they have made in recent years.
|40. By: whereswoody on 01-16-2013 19:55:17|
Smoak is gone, theres no way they arent shopping him extensively for a 4th or 5th starter right now
|41. By: Paul Martin on 01-16-2013 19:56:35|
Analysis from Keith Law of ESPN:
“The Nats came out way ahead, the A's made a modest gain, and the M's leave me scratching my head at why they'd ask for change for a five-dollar bill and be happy with three singles.”
Then he continues later on:
“The Mariners, however, come out on the short end of the stick. They give up three years of Jaso for one of Morse, and will pay Morse handsomely even though he missed large chunks of three of the past five seasons due to injury. Morse is a very limited player, best suited to DH duty or first base, with a poor overall approach at the plate -- he's a dead fastball hitter, and has been his whole career outside of the anomalous 2011 season, with consistently mediocre walk rates. He does have above-average raw power, probably more like plus when he's completely healthy, and Seattle has a pretty desperate need for right-handed power, enough that, rather than getting better players, they figured they'd just move the left-center fence in about 15 feet.
Even if you're an optimist on Morse and figured Jaso's playing time would be limited with all the first base/DH types already on the roster, the probable upgrade here for Seattle isn't more than an extra win in 2013 -- and Jaso will make up for that with what he delivers in 2014-15, while likely earning little more over the three years than Morse will earn this year. It's just not a great use of their assets, and doesn't fill a critical need for a club that has lots of fringy DH types on the roster.”
You Jack Z apologists can try to spin this anyway you want, but this is a REALLY BAD trade and makes no sense.
|42. By: rotoenquire on 01-16-2013 20:31:23|
Jaso is 29 he had his best year EVER last season. He has no more upside and is a backup catcher and nothing more. you traded that for a guy who batted .297/.343/.515 with 49 homers over the last two years. Uuummm I think we got more than a fair deal. Law has his moments, but misses the boat a good deal of the time. He would not make my top writers list that are working today.
|43. By: Edman on 01-16-2013 20:31:54|
Who really cares what Keith Law thinks? He's never been wrong?
|44. By: diderot on 01-16-2013 20:46:28|
I don't know how well Morse will do, but Law's analysis is wrong in this sense--Jaso's value to the team after this year is zilch. Doesn't matter how many years of control he has left. Our catchers will be Zunino and Montero.
So his potential value is reduced to left-handed pinch hitter...and you can always find an Ibanez for that.
|45. By: Bookbook on 01-16-2013 20:55:20|
Our catchers after this year will be Zunino and some one. Montero will be the Edgar Martinez honorary DH.
This was a bad trade and it increases the pressure on Z to make further moves to make a playable roster for next year.
I'd trade Wells plus for Porcello, but not Wells plus Capps. Too much of an overpay, even noting that Wedge will never use Wells enough.
|46. By: Paul Martin on 01-16-2013 21:00:40|
Wells was the big prize in the Doug Fister trade. I hated that trade when it happened, and even more now...
|47. By: cpuglisi on 01-16-2013 21:16:17|
I think this move is a perfect short term solution in rf and will help the mariners to get over .500. There pretty much set as a team the only need to make two moves for opening day and that is a backup catcher. Two names come to my mind Kelly Shoppach and rod Barajas. I would go with shoppach because of his familiarity with Wedge. The move is one more starting pitcher. The mariners gave up a huge innings eater to get morales. I would love to see the mariners pursue Jair Juirjens. Freddy garcia would be a good choice as well but somebody to hold the fort until Hultzen and paxton and walker are ready. Jason are there any left handed starters aviable in the free agent market that the M's could pursue As I look up and down the roster, One of these outfielders has to go. It will be interesting in spring traing. I think the ideal situation is to have an outfield of saunders Guti and Morse. But what about Bay, Ibanez and thames. Personally I think Ibanez is past his prime. Thames has more value i think to the team and he has some power in that swing along with speed for a good 4th outfielder. Good offseason jack!! You have given wedgea pretty interesting lineup to deal out everyday
|48. By: Jerry on 01-16-2013 21:36:47|
I'm ambivalent about this trade. In a vacuum, I think Jaso and Morse are probably similar players in terms of overall performance.
But how the hell does Morse fit on this team? I don't want to see that guy in the OF everyday, and we know have an even bigger glut of 1B/DH/bD-defense-OF guys. I don't see how this all fits together.
And what about C now? Clearly the team thinks Montero is better behind the dish than most other people. Zunino might be the future, but the guy was in college last year, and still needs some time in the minors.
Jaso and Montero made a great platoon. Jaso and Zunino also would have made a great platoon.
I dunno. This trade isn't as bad as the Morrow deal, but I don't follow the logic.
Let's hope the M's just sold high on Jaso, Montero improves A LOT defensively, and the OF/DH/LF situation sorts itself out. There could be more moves ahead. But, right now, this is a head-scratcher.
|49. By: Gibbo on 01-16-2013 21:37:42|
@Whereswoody, if you are shopping Smoak for a #4 or 5 starter it won't be a good one so why not just hold him to see if his September was just a fluke or if he has figured something out? We have plenty of 4 or 5 starters.
|50. By: baseballman on 01-16-2013 21:52:01|
Awesome Paul, you know how to regurgitate what others think! Nice job!
|51. By: StandinPat on 01-16-2013 21:52:03|
I couldn't disagree with you more on this one Jason. I don't see this as being anything but an epic failure of a trade. You would have had Jaso for the next three years, while Morse is only under contract for this year. A year in which you probably won't be contending. So you gave up an asset that could help you when you might be primed to contend, for one that can't. That right there is a failure.
For the argument that Jaso is a part time player, well what is Morse? He's a horrible OF and should mainly DH, yet you already have Morales, Smoak, Montero, Ibanez and Wells eating into those Abs. How does that make him any more likely to be an everyday player than Jaso?
At the end of the day, adding LH platoon bat in the OF to couple with Wells would have been cheaper and more effective. Montero/Jaso/Morales sharing DH/C abs with Wells/LH bat(not ibanez) is far superior to Montero/Morales/scrub backup catcher sharing DH/C abs with Morse in the OF.
"Put Morse in RF. Hope that Guti and Saunders can carry enough ground to help him out"
That's not actually how it works. Players are basically able to get to the balls in their 'area.' Any carryover is on random plays into fringe areas, a scarce amount of plays at best.
'It's not certain if he had a career year"
Obviously he had a career year, which at 28 isn't even close to unheard of.
"or if he might revert back to his time with the Rays"
You mean pretty darn good, then an injury shortened year fuel by bad luck?
"Is Morse a worse fielding outfielder, than Jaso is a catcher?"
Is catcher an immensely more valuable position than corner OF?
"Jaso had one good season in Seattle"
And a good season is TB. Morse basically has a half of a year of success over Jaso.
"just think of it as Josh Lueke for Mike Morse"
Except it isn't.
"Jaso fit into our future? Zunino will be the M's catcher of the future, and as a DH, Jaso is only average"
Zunino isn't catching everyday, almost no catcher is. And what is Morse as a DH? A world beater?
"Jaso is not a premiere player. He's a slightly better than average player, who looks great in a offensivly challenged group"
So what is Morse? Because you gave up 3 years of Jaso for 1 year of Morse, so unless Morse is, then you lost value.
"Is it just me or is anyone else kind of wish we would of just traded Jaso for Cole+whomever is the PTBNL?"
Would have been more valuable than Morse.
"When was the last time you saw a starting pitcher traded for a platoon player?"
You mean like Fister for a LHR, 4th OF and 2 specs?
"You assume he's a rental player. How many players resigned with their existing clubs, before hitting free agency"
And how many don't? You literally just made an argument in another thread on not being able to predict Free agency in the future because we don't have insight on who will or won't resign with their parent club? But, not we can predict said signings?
"There are a few catchers available. It's not like the well has gone dry"
And how many of those have the ability to put up a .340 or better wOBA in part time duty?
"It's like inviting people over for a BBQ, and everyone telling they can cook a steak better than you."
Did you just try to make your point by quoting one of the worst managerial minds in the history of baseball???
"short, you're making some mighty big assumptions about outfield injuries as compared to catching injuries"
Or he's just actually paying attention to the fact that Morse has been oft injured in his career. Seriously, sometimes I even wonder if you follow baseball.
"Morse will handle LF"
I think we may have different definitions of 'handle'
"I'll trade 30+ homeruns for a few bad fielding plays"
If you think its only a 'few' you're kidding yourself.
"In close games, there are always defensive substitutions"
Ah, so Jaso was expendable as a part time catcher, but Morse is a god send as a part time OF...makes perfect sense
"And some of us know you can have the best defense in the world, but if you can't score it means nothing!"
and all the runs scored in the world mean jack shit if you give up more. Why is this so difficult for people to understand?
"Jaso is 29 he had his best year EVER last season"
Because 29 yr olds never have career years? Kinda like Morse did... does anybody actually do any research anymore?
"Law's analysis is wrong in this sense--Jaso's value to the team after this year is zilch"
another one where I just don't get how you can say this with any semblance of logic attached to it. Jaso could still backup at C and DH in 2014-15, where Morse would be a FA and may not even be with the team. So which players value is zilch after this year?
|52. By: StandinPat on 01-16-2013 22:00:07|
Player A .180 ISO in 2012
Player B .180 ISO in 2012
Player A career best 3.3WAR in 575 ABs
Player B career best 2.7WAR in 361 ABs
the biggest difference between the two, player B is a catcher under club control for three more years who can actually increase his value through more playing time.
I stand corrected, this was a sweet trade...
|53. By: Lamda on 01-16-2013 22:14:04|
The thing is Jaso is a role player only. That is why Oakland traded for him. He's like Mark Mclemore-light. He has a decent bat and can play a few spots in a pinch. Not able to hold down an everyday position but good for a team if used effectively.
I think Law and some of you are missing the point on this. Jaso has value but just not on our team. Sure he is cheap and all that but that is not the only concern a team has. We can find cheap utility/role players every season on the cheap.
Also people - whether you like it or not barring a trade, Morse is going to be playing a lot of LF. There is no point to putting Smoak in AAA so if he's not traded, he's your 1B with Morales as the DH and Morse in LF. Again, if that trade isn't made, I see this affecting Ibanez/Bay the most with Bay most likely not making the team and Ibanez in a much reduced role to what he was promised. All signs point to a trade of Smoak which would be a big mistake as he has little to no value so you might as well play him and hope he keeps up his September production - if he does the club will be hugely better for it.
|54. By: Bowfett on 01-16-2013 22:24:32|
So one error in left field. http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=434604#gameType='R'§ionType=career&statType=3&season=2012&level='ALL'
|55. By: dangayle on 01-16-2013 22:26:53|
|56. By: Paul Martin on 01-16-2013 22:28:45|
@51 I couldn't agree with you more! Amazes me how many Jack Z apologists will just blindly agree with anything he does. Keep drinking the koolaid guys!
|57. By: dangayle on 01-16-2013 22:36:24|
Let's go to rewind land:
Mariners have a glut of first-base/DH players and only one catcher on the ML roster. We trade Morse, an injury prone no-defense slugger with one year left on his contract for backup catcher John Jaso, a GREAT platoon hitter coming off of a career year who is cheap and under control for the next three years.
Wow, that's a good trade, Trader Jack! You snookered them!
Says Z: "You know, we really like what Morse has brought this team, but when you have a chance to add a really special player to your team who fills a need and who can contribute right now, sometimes you have to make that move."
If anyone tries to tell me that you wouldn't applaud that trade, you're a liar.
|58. By: Jerry on 01-16-2013 22:40:25|
Besides my rational qualms about this move, I really did like Jaso as a fan. He was a great interview, and seemed like a genuinely cool guy. And watching him hit was fun. Too bad we'll have to watch him on the A's.
-the A's released George Kottaras, who is almost a poor-mans Jaso. He'd be a great cheap addition as a backup. If the M's wanted him, I'd imagine he'd have been in the trade, but his release should make him cheaper.
-I'm wondering if this doesn't lead to a deal with the Tigers. The M's now have far too many 1B/DH/OF guys, have lots of bullpen depth, and need starting pitching. The Tigers are looking for a RH OFer and a closer, and are shopping Rick Porcello. I think Casper Wells is a great 4th OFer, but Porcello is a potential breakout guy. I'd bet the Tigers would be interested in Wilhelmsen and Wells for Porcello and a lesser guy. Avasail Garcia would be a great addition. Then the M's could spend the last of their offseason cash on Jose Valverde, Kyle Farnsworth, Brian Wilson, or another "proven closer" available on a 1yr deal.
As it stands now, I think we still have some work to do.
|59. By: StandinPat on 01-16-2013 22:49:09|
@53 Yeah, I think you're the one that's missing the point. It's not about being a part time or a full time player. It's about the value that player provides while playing. If the Ms had actually used Jaso correctly, his 'career' year would have been far more valuable than Morse's. Given the fact that in this current roster configuration, there is no way they can give Morse 600 ABS, nor has he shown he can stay healthy enough to get that many, how again is Jaso a part time player, but Morse isn't?
@54 If you actually think errors are a useful measure of defensive value, you really need to spend some time educating yourself. And its not even about saber-metrics or anything of the like, its about basic logic. If you stand in one spot in the OF and barely make a single out, but somehow manage to not botch the six balls hit directly at you, then you won't have a single error to your credit. Don't judge defense by errors! That's just an awful form of analysis.
|60. By: Paul Martin on 01-16-2013 22:49:29|
I wish we would spend money and sign a starter. Liriano and Joe Saunders are both still out there. Porcello is right handed, and all our starters are right handed already. I would rather trade for a lefty if they won't sign a free agent. Capuano could be a nice innings eater. Millwood can also still be resigned.
|61. By: StandinPat on 01-16-2013 22:59:10|
"Porcello is right handed, and all our starters are right handed already. I would rather trade for a lefty if they won't sign a free agent"
Why? Why not just get a good starter? If the RH starter is better than the LH starter, why would you rather have the LH just because the rest of your rotation is RH?
That's like saying my awesome lineup is too RH, lets grab ourselves a lefty, don't worry if he's good or not, he just needs to be a lefty dammit!
|62. By: Gibbo on 01-16-2013 23:38:46|
Yeah but if we have some lefties we will see less of Jaso lol
|63. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 00:03:41|
Pat, how is Jaso suppose to improve his value with more playing time, when he can't hit lefthanded pitching? Is your thought that he'll learn?
|64. By: FatBat on 01-17-2013 00:29:36|
Post 56. Just drank some koolaid (whiskey) looking at my fantasy draft, sporting news... Couldn't find jaso anywhere? What round was he taken? I did find morse in the 9th. Hmm if fantasy is based off offense and Jaso isn't on here what would you think that means? Ok luts throw out that morse is a career .294 hitter and Jaso is what? Yeah thought so. Ok so throw out fantasy value that's kid stuff. No more koolaid (whiskey). You saying Jaso is great behind the plate? Or he was going to get full time catcher this year? What value do you put on Someone only slotted for 300 ab's? I would love to have waited for zunino to come up and traded Jaso for golf lessons but ill take the koolaid throw some steaks on the grill and watch the mariners put up 6 runs a game, and I won't even bother to ask what koolaid you are drinking. Cuz I don't care. Bar keep! One more koolaid!
|65. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 01:43:01|
This whole value thing doesn't seem rational to me.
1. Seattle dose not require payroll relief, because they have plenty of budget.
2. Seattle has catching depth in the minors, and doesn't need three years of control out of Jaso.
3. At the moment, Seattle is not an attractive option to premiere free agents.
4. Power hitters, regardless of position, are not as easy to find.
5. There are lots of options left between now and the first game of the regular season.
Bottom line is, when you need offense and power, and it's in short supply, you take it when you can get it, then reshuffle the deck. Jack isn't done, and there will be more moves to come. You don't decide the outcome of a chess match with the first three moves.
I just pray that Jack doesn't bring back Olivo to catch.
|66. By: Gibbo on 01-17-2013 02:45:06|
I think if Olivio got brought back the message boards would explode. Mike Carp could be a fit for the Red Sox who now have 3 catchers, so is there some kind of match up there? But Z is not done, you are right and I really like Jaso but losing him doesnt signify any reason to throw away my fandom or over react. One thing I will say, this trade is as controversial as you can get, even the experts, bloggers and media are all heavily divided on it and now we can move on from Upton talk.
|67. By: dewey on 01-17-2013 03:33:31|
Felix,Iwakuma,Rameriz,Beaven and ? that is are rotation as we speek b ut we have alot of dh/1b. That rotation is not good you have a true number 1 a 4th starter pitching in the 2 hole a guy with 8 starts in 3 hole Beaven who we all think is a 5 starter pitching in 4 hole in fact some on this board dont like at all. And no 5th starter Noesi who got murdered in ML and 3A. Hultzen who didnt throw strikes in 3A. Maybe we should look for some starters and even if we get some we still finish 4th i just dont follow the plan here
|68. By: Hackinator on 01-17-2013 04:16:55|
Lat time I looked it was still January. That said I believe that JZ is stockpiling assets for future deals. He is also covering ( Bay for instance) in case potential moves do not work out . Sit back relax and enoy the ride, because it is not over yet.
|69. By: docsmith on 01-17-2013 04:34:43|
I am not trying to defend Jack. But I dislike this trade and I think it does a lot less long term damage to the Mariners than Walker, Franklin, Pryor and Furbush for Upton. I am NOT saying Morse is better than Upton, that would be ridiculous. I just dislike this trade less than that one.
So, now, hopefully the part of Jack/Wedge that crave "power bats" are done. We have Morales and Morse. We have "proven" veterens in Ibanez and Bay. So much of what we have said we wanted we now have. And we still have the young talent both on the team and in the minors that can develop.
Overall, this is a better spot to be in than the one we were in.
As for Jaso and this trade, in a vacuum, I don't like it. But, I even catch myself assuming Jaso will be the same player we saw in 2011 for the next three years. That just isn't very likely. Catchers hit walls and decline fast. Also, he had a career year in 2011. I expect him to be good in 2012, but after that, who knows.
Jaso was never a huge part of the future. Maybe Morse helps us win in 2013, Jack keep his job, and let the young talent develop. In three years we'll talk and see who "won" this trade. As long as the Mariners young talent successfully developed and we are winning. I won't care very much.
|70. By: docsmith on 01-17-2013 06:19:40|
....I am not sure how this works, but Jack's apparent desperation may not just be about his job, battling the declining attendence, etc. But it could be that he is trying to position the Mariners for a sweeter tv contract in 2 years. So, he may value winning in 2013-2014 higher than normal to get that big contract, which, of course, would put us in better position to win in the future. Thus, Morse's value in 1 year may be more valuable to the Mariners (especially with Zunino in the wings) than Jaso's value over 3 years.
|71. By: Wishhiker on 01-17-2013 06:46:23|
There's a pretty decent chance that Jaso is as valuable a hitter as Morse this year for less money at a position we're not already overloaded with options at. If the team sees Montero as Zuninos backup going into the future then, certainly, Jaso had to go. However, next offseason Jaso could have still brought some value back whereas more will be off the books.
for this year i like Morse a tad more, but we shouldn't ignore the value Jaso would have still had at the end of this season. In either case it's possible that they (are/would have been) traded at this deadline anyway, but that's the only point where their overall values might be close is as 4 month then deadline trade players. Jaso is flat out more valuable otherwise.
"That is why Oakland traded for him."
I am very worried that Oakland traded for him because they see the value of him as their #1 catcher and use him 100+ games. He's been platooned and not given much of a chance to hit left handers and others have busted out after being in that same position after having a new club give them that everyday chance. Jaso and Wells are the 2 guys on the roster that seemed to have that possibility with some being of the opinion that their splits would get closer together with more exposure to their weak side. Sounds like Wells is next to go. Hmmm, wonder if Oakland is interested in him too?
I thought the rule of thumb was if Oakland wants them, keep them.
If Morse doesn't have the repetitive injury history I'm more onboard with the move, but I'm definitely not confident that Morse even gets more AB this year than Jaso. The idea of 50% (300 some AB) of a good hitter, say a #5, for 80%(500+ AB) of a MOTO sounds nice, but that's thinking only of this year and presuming that one is truly limited to Patton ability while the others injury history won't repeat. Let's see how many days off Jaso gets in Oakland and how his splits look then...
I don't hate the move, but i don't like it. i don't think it's the worst move Z has made, but I do think it's one of the worst.
I do like it better than cutting out Oakland, keeping Jaso and sending similar prospects to Washington, but the degree could be slim depending on players later named.
I'm glad the team has two decent MOTO proven veterans now. The battery of Vargas/Jaso isn't any less valuable though.
|72. By: rdubmu on 01-17-2013 07:06:44|
Foster trade may have been worse. Foster was lights out for Seattle in the half year. This trade thou has no upside. Swear to god bavasi is back
|73. By: Wishhiker on 01-17-2013 07:06:52|
ok, there's a chance we've seen the best of Jaso and Zduriencik is right while Beane is wrong. He's a platoon bat with bad defense on the downhill side of his career starting this year. That's plausible.
There's a chance that Morse has a career year hitting 45 to 50+ hr and justifies a bit of bad defense in a corner while getting most of his AB in DH anyway. Also plausible.
Doesn't it pretty much take both of those scenarios coming mostly true for the value to be right? It's Zduriencik's and Beane s jobs to evaluate and I'm certain both have more info on Jaso than I do. I guess we'll see...
Waiting on the next moves.
|74. By: Wishhiker on 01-17-2013 07:42:54|
"Player A .180 ISO in 2012 Player B .180 ISO in 2012
Player A career best 3.3WAR in 575 ABs Player B career best 2.7WAR in 361 ABs
the biggest difference between the two, player B is a catcher under club control for three more years who can actually increase his value through more playing time.
I stand corrected, this was a sweet trade..."
I thought the biggest difference to be found was in not just focusing on one year?
While Morse has a .196 career and has topped that .180 all 3 of the other years he's been in Washington, only once was it more than 300 AB and he never cleared it with the mariners.
Jaso had never previously cleared .130 ISO, so I wouldn't expect that to be his true talent level, though it's possible.
|75. By: masonb on 01-17-2013 07:44:12|
So many of the people on here criticizing Jack and speaking as if they are the experts remind me of all the people criticizing the Supreme Court after the AHA decision. So many people instantly became ConLaw scholars! Same thing here. I think Jack is a little smarter when it comes to making baseball decisions. He has a plan, and probably has a few names on the radar to replace Jaso, so wait until the dust has settled before you start criticizing all the moves. Is Jack above reproach? No. But the offseason isn't over yet.
Jaso was under utilized on this team, and that most likely wouldn't have changed. Not to mention that he wouldn't have been a 3 year guy anyways with the catching depth Seattle has. So his value isn't exactly the same as what Dave Cameron says on Fangraphs. The fact that he was traded straight up for Morse and without giving up prospects and sacrificing for the future was a win in my book. I'd like to see Saltalamacchia targeted as the backup guy. Jack just traded Vargas and Jaso for Morales and Morse. I'd take that trade any day of the week. Just chill the hell out. All these sky is falling types are really annoying.
|76. By: Wishhiker on 01-17-2013 08:27:42|
I'm not overexcited and never said the sky was falling or spoke in any relative terms. I calmly looked at a many things as I could think of to evaluate the trade. In isolation. I'm not talking about the roster crunch at all because how that applies requires exactly what you just suggested, waiting until the roster is done. All I was concerned with are possibilities, probabilities and their relation to the values of both ends of the deal. A later move will not make this move any better value wise. The final roster will not change how good or bad this deal was.
Your hyperbole and excitement won't change my mind either, so why don't you calm down. At least enough to bring some stats or perspective evaluation. Why are so many posters pointing fingers at others while simultaneously doing what they're complaining about? Takes one to know one is pretty cliche, but please stop the hypocritical complaints. I'm tired of the bickering.
|77. By: Wishhiker on 01-17-2013 08:32:15|
"DON'T ACT LIKE YOU KNOW IT ALL...HERE'S HOW I KNOW IT ALL" by random sample poster
|78. By: Galway on 01-17-2013 08:43:43|
Fro a value stand point alone Jaso for Morse I think is fair.
My issue is how the roster is currently constructed with some redundant skill sets. So I guess its wait and see for me. To me Morse isn't a long term OF and is really really bad and has zero confidence out there based on what I watched here in DC for three years. But Jaso wasn't likely a long term solution at catcher either.
If the roster stays as is I don't like it due to context, if it changes the value is fair I may think its an ok trade.
|79. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 08:46:29|
Biggest difference for me.......Morse can play against all pitchers, Jaso only righthanders. Which means he has an opportunity to help the offense everyday, Jaso, only occasionally.
|80. By: Jackson on 01-17-2013 09:31:13|
The depth chart for catcher on this site is Zunino and then a bunch of kids who haven't played in AA. Having a Jaso around as a backup for a few more years would seem like a great fit.
|81. By: baseballman on 01-17-2013 09:38:46|
"Jack Z apologist" What does that mean Paul? So if we don't despise this trade because Dave Cameron says we have to, then we are "Jack Z apologists"?
What a moronic comment from an irrational poster...
|82. By: rth1986 on 01-17-2013 09:40:39|
The most confusing part of the trade for me is that Kottaras didn't come over to Seattle. The A's are ditching him anyway and he replaces Jaso pretty well. He has a similarly excellent approach at the plate, and makes up for worse contact skills with better power than Jaso. Seemed like an obvious inclusion to the deal.
I guess the M's could still pick him up on waivers or whatever, but it seems to imply that they didn't want him.
On a side note, I hate when people react to deals and say "well, let's see what move they make next." Every move should be evaluated individually based on where the club currently is at. The Mariners could get Joe Mauer tomorrow and the Jaso trade would still be a bad trade. Jaso has more value than Morse now, plain and simple. This move is similar to the Brandon Morrow deal in that it's a terrible trade no matter how you look at it and no matter what happens in the future. Extremely disappointing move.
|83. By: baseballman on 01-17-2013 09:43:42|
rth, how do you know that Jaso have more value than Morse? What MLB exec told you that? How did you come to that conclusion?
|84. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 09:49:03|
Let us go back to the beginning of December.
Would you have traded Jason Vargas and John Jaso for Kendry Morales and Michael Morse?
And, which is a greater overal cost to the Mariner:
Juston Upton - (Tai Walker + Nick Franklin +Carter Capps + Charlie Furbush + Stephen Pryor) + Upton's salary
Michael Morse + Arby salary - John Jaso + Arby salary.
As I see it, Morse will make less than Upton, though not by much. Jaso offers value in regard to salary, however Seattle has room to add salary.
The biggest thing is that we still have some valuable trade chips left, if Jack wants to use them, and has added two MOTO bats. It's not perfect, however Jack still has tools that will let him make adjustments to the roster.
|85. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 09:55:56|
rth, IMHO, that's pure nonsense that every move is evaluated individually. When playing chess, do you jump for joy because your pon took a knight, or do you wait to see the value of sactrificing a knight to win the game?
Some seem to want to rush to judgement. And before anyone praises Dave Cameron, remember, he's the guy who supported sending Morse to the Nat for the now legendary Ryan Langerhans. He doesn't get them all right.
|86. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 09:56:41|
sorry for the typos, it's early
|87. By: Wishhiker on 01-17-2013 10:04:26|
Jaso has 151 PA vs. LHP in the Majors. A sample size too small to be conclusive. He has 504 PA vs LHP in the minors. in those his line is .281/.375/.393. Compared to his MiL vs. RHP of .295/.388/.465 it doesn't seem to me that a conclusion that he "can't hit LHP" is justified. He has not yet hit LHP well in a small amount of AB in the majors while not starting many games vs LHP. He has not been given much chance to succeed in the majors vs. LHP. He may not ever hit MLB LHP much better than he has, but his MiL splits suggest that he CAN. Its a possibility, not a forgone conclusion based on sufficient data. Splits aren't always what they seem.
Dude, he didn't say that MLB execs said anything. Jaso has more value than Morse. Even if I back that statement up with facts it should be obvious that i'm starting my opinion. If he were relating an MLB execs opinion, do you not think they would have said so.
How do you know they're moronic or irrational? did an IQ test tell you that?
Stop bashing other people hypocritically, its annoyingly rude and distracts from the baseball conversations.
|88. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 10:10:39|
Beane plans to use Jaso as a platoon player, so that would suggest that they have a book on Jaso, and it's that he has problems hitting lefthanders. They go beyond sample size and evaluate his swing.
Minor league at bats don't mean much. How many great hitters have you seen come from AAA and fade? As I said, they have a book on him. One not based on minor league stats.
|89. By: FatBat on 01-17-2013 10:15:56|
Irrational? No but try retreading post 73 and ask your self that question. In your mind morse needs to hit 45 to 50+ hrs for this to make sense to you? Haha he hits that many and Z will get GM of the year! Irrational. Ha give me a break
|90. By: Wishhiker on 01-17-2013 10:19:30|
There's something to be said that first the forward thinking Rays moved Jaso for a better defender and the mariners appear to be doing the same a year later. Defense at catcher is considered at least partially unquantified by stats so it's not easy for me to come to a conclusion on his value defensively. Is he better suited to DH? Isn't Morse better suited to DH too? If it's just one year of each, I prefer Morse. It's the extra 2 years of Jaso that makes him more valuable in my opinion.
|91. By: rotoenquire on 01-17-2013 10:25:20|
I love how everyone cares 1st of all. Secondly I believe this is a classic homer over hype. Compairing Marrow to Jaso realy? Marrow was mismanaged and stillwas young and had huge upside. We got a solid reliver turned closer. I would rather have the starter but it is what it is. Jaso is a backup a solidd backup, but just a backup at catcher. I liked this Fister deal when it happened that was a lot of highly regarded talent that the Ms got. And like we all say prospects are just that. You always take a gamble with deals like that. Morse was a solid get for a team that needed to produce runs. As for the conerns for the starting rotation. I think the Ms are putting there hopes on one of the Big 3 making the next step and landing on the starting rotation. Behind Felix and Iwakuma as the #3 starter. I think the deals are done for a bat. Only way I would get Bourn if its a 2 year deal and even then I am only 50-50 on even doing that.
|92. By: Wishhiker on 01-17-2013 10:27:08|
i was throwing the irrational back at the poster who tossed it at another. I think it us irrational to toss insults for others attempting to offer their opinion and not add anything to the conversation than the insult.
I also said 45-50+ and asked, not stated, but asked if they didn't have to"mostly"come true to justify the values. mostly, with 45 as a base, could be 38 bombs, right? 38 is not 50 and I never said it would take that either. I asked what others thought of what I presented add conjecture within the context, not fact. I'm not saying "this is how it is" just trying to discuss baseball. You commented on it as irrational, i suppose, so one opinion noted. thanks for the hostility.
|93. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 10:32:31|
Morrow was also traded at Don Wak's request. Unfortunately, Jack should have stepped in and told him to do his job. I'm sure he learned from it.
As for Morse hitting homeruns. Anything over 30 along with a fair number of doubles would look to Mariner fans like adding Hank Aaron in his prime. The M's offense has been epically offensive, but not in terms of production.
|94. By: FatBat on 01-17-2013 10:52:25|
Wishhiker hostility not intended. My bad. It was sarcasm with a touch of silly coffee. Just sayn' I'd be happy with .280 25 80 and if morales can do the same u would love to see what these kids can do with that much pressure off of them. Not to mention how fun they will be to watch.
|95. By: rjfrik on 01-17-2013 10:58:06|
If you haven't read the article on Morse's value on fangraphs by Dave you should.
This was done before the trade and frankly it seems like Dave is singing an entirely different tune about Morse then he is over on his last post on USS.
First, he lists a group of guys that Morse is exactly like and will be like and there's a lot of great players on there. He predicts, based on those guys, that Morse will have an OPS of .857 based on the averages of those guys age 31 season. Bill James predicts Jaso will have an OPS next year of .756, so we are talking about a fairly big significance.
Second, he says Morse is very similar to Kendrys Morales, essentially saying they are the same guy. Morales was traded for Vargas. In my opinion Vargas is more valuable to the M's the Jaso was. Would you trade Jaso for Morales or Vargas for Morse? Because according to Dave, Morse and Morales are the same guy.
Third, he says Morse is probably a 2+ Win player making a salary slightly below a 2+ Win player in 2013 and that he is worth trading for, but just not giving up a huge return.
So I guess the question we have to ask ourselves is Jaso a huge return? That's the 64k question. Personally I don't think Jaso is that big of a return. We kept all of our prospects and all of our young MLB bats and traded away a guy, like Vargas, that doesn't have a future on this team. Could we of obtained more in return for Jaso? Maybe. If we hung on to him and he hits like he did last year, we might be able to get more for him down the line when Zunino is ready. But what if he reverts back to the way he's hit the ball his whole life? Before last year he was a career .700 OPS platoon catcher. If he reverts back to that in 2013 then the M's just lost value on him and could probably only net a minor league pitcher for him, the exact same price we paid for him.
So the M's sold high on Jaso, nothing wrong with cashing in your stock when it's doubled or tripled. If it continues to go up, you still made some money. Could you have obtained more for Jaso this year, while his stock was high? Maybe, but what if the A's were the only team that had any interest in him.
Yes you only get one year of Morse, but his one year is a much better projected year then Jaso's is and by all accounts should make our offense more potent and hopefully our team better.
|96. By: rjfrik on 01-17-2013 11:05:28|
Also, Morse has had a pretty good last couple of seasons, concerning, FA compensation. If he has another good year he should be able to net some form of compensation, if we make him a qualifying offer and he walks.
|97. By: Wishhiker on 01-17-2013 11:12:44|
yeah, i like the Vargas one year for Morales one year better than the Jaso three years for Morse one year. Overall, pair for pair, i'm a little more happy with the moves. At least people can't say they Aren't getting MOTO bats. I agree that taking pressure off of young bats that need to work on their hitting might help alot since they hopefully won't be trying to provide the power.
We won't know what Oakland is going to do with Jaso until they do. I certainly don't have access to their "book". If they move on from him in a year as well it will be another indication that things about his defense and game calling may be bad enough to further justify the trade. Stats on his other than offensive contributions just aren't advanced enough for me to have a good idea of his defensive value. But we don't know he won't hit LHP reasonably in the future without seeing the future.
|98. By: Wishhiker on 01-17-2013 11:27:44|
Another interesting point is that, barring injury or collapse, the team would probably give qualifying offers to both Morales and Morse. if they leave, that's potentially 2 draft picks in the top 50 or so.
I guess this is the best we could do for another bat and, yeah, they didn't give up anything from their farm. It seems we know what we could have gotten in prospects from the A's and some people have said they'd prefer that return for Jaso. That's definitely more than "a minor league pitcher", its potentially 3 minor league pitchers. I'm pretty sure that's more than anyone was offering for Morse or we would not have gotten Morse. Jaso may be overrated, but what the A's paid for him was not chump change.
|99. By: rotoenquire on 01-17-2013 11:48:17|
USS Mariner and Cameron are good at the numbers and all that. But when it comes to talent evaluation. Cameron leaves a lot to be desired. And there is a lot that gets lost in the numbers. From defensive decision making to how a player can pick up on pitches. Morse, Morales, Ibanez are all solid adds to this team and adding the number everyone likes these guys do. Will make everyone happy. No more so than King Felix who will have RUN SUPPORT this season and have a shot at another Cy Young! Guty or Saunders can cover ground and help make up for some lost D in the OF. We still have the solid INF D and can now look forward to some runs.
|100. By: rjfrik on 01-17-2013 11:56:39|
You're right what the A's sent the Nationals was a solid minor league starter and it wasn't chump change.
But the M's weren't going to make that trade, if it was Jaso straight up for A's prospects. The M's were looking for a MLB bat, one that is an upgrade over what they have. They wouldn't have sent off, arguably their best or one of their best MLB hitters for minor league pitching and depleted the MLB roster in the process.
So if the Nationals were the only team willing to part with a good MLB bat then the trade had to be made.
Now you could have waited a year, hoped Jaso's value stayed the same, hoped the young pieces come together and become successful hitters and hope Zunino would be ready by 2014, to make Jaso expendable. Then you could have shipped him off for the best value that someone would give you and could have taken the pitching prospects that the A's sent out.
But it's 2013, not 2014. When the trade is put into context it's not as bad as some are making it out to be. Did we lose two extra years of a controlled player? Yes. Did we upgrade the offense? Yes
And we just might get a draft pick out of it next year.
|101. By: FatBat on 01-17-2013 12:05:38|
Yeah rjrik the more I read Dave's stuff the more I scratch my head. I remember a couple years ago he was hung up on will venable. Venable this venable can do that. I'm just like really? That's who you like. Happy to have Jason and this site. Even when Jason doesn't like something he gives you the pro's with the con's. not just the con.
|102. By: Jerry on 01-17-2013 12:12:36|
I'm really interested to see how this plays out in terms of playing time.
Will Morse see more time in the OF, or at DH/1B? For the defense, the latter is obviously better. For the future of the club, the former.
What about Smoak? I am still holding out hope that he can turn into an above average player. With Morales and Morse both free agents after this year, we kinda need him to be. This is clearly his last chance, and hopefully he impresses in spring training and early in the season. If so, this could be a potential lineup:
Or something like that.
Problems: Guti can't be expected to play every day, and they will need depth in case Smoak craps out.
Morales and Morse should both see time at 1B, with Wells, Ibanez, and/or Bay getting time in the OF.
I had initially thought that this would be bad for Wells, but it would be really risky to move him now. Given Guti's health issues, they need a good defensive player on the bench. Saunders can always cover CF, but think about how bad the outfield would be with Ibanez/Bay in LF, Saunders in CF, and Morse in RF. Adding Morse should make a good defensive OF on the bench a priority.
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
|103. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 12:15:48|
And of course, let us not forget how Dave's personal pick at shortstop, LRod.
Dave is like most everyone else, he has his personal bias'. The difference is, he uses selected statistics to try to prove them out.
|104. By: ripperlv on 01-17-2013 12:39:15|
In some ways this may make sense depending upon further moves. But at the moment, this is a very dyslexic roster, poor defense abounds, no speed, lots of strikeouts, lack of decent rotation. I'm being patient, but at this point, I'm scared. I've read all these posts, and I don't think anymore puts up a solid enough argument to convince me this is a good team as of today. Waiting for more changes.
|105. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 12:50:51|
Two months ago, would you have traded Vargas and Jaso, for two MOTO bats, regardless of the position they play? Most rational people would.
|106. By: Jerry on 01-17-2013 13:00:44|
"Two months ago, would you have traded Vargas and Jaso, for two MOTO bats, regardless of the position they play? Most rational people would."
This is a simplistic, lame argument. "MOTO bat" isn't a real thing. Its a role, one that different types of players can fill. Most rational people who know a bit about baseball would reject this argument.
For instance, Jaso hit in the middle of our lineup for most of the latter part of last season. Using these simplistic terms, Jaso WAS a MOTO bat. Jaso and Morse provide value to their teams in different ways. Thinking in terms of player 'types' like this isn't useful. Dave Cameron has made this argument very eloquently lately.
Listen, I'm not overly pissed off about this move. There are ways you can rationalize this. However, your argument isn't one of them. We can look at these moves in far more sophisticated ways than this.
|107. By: Wishhiker on 01-17-2013 13:01:37|
Saunders and Ackley have a decent amount of speed and Seager and Ryan steal a few bases. Not a lot of speed presently, but not horrible in that department. Power is looking pretty decent at this point. Starting pitching needs help, but I have no doubt it will get some in the next few Weeks.
The only confusion is really the qty of DH options and there only being 2 outfielders that are likely to be positive defensively. Maybe Wells will as well, but the general thought out there is he doesn't make it to spring training with us. I'd like to see a defensive outfielder added with options to stash at AAA at the very least. Guti goes down after we trade away Wells and this outfield depth becomes very problematic. If a situation arose with just 1 injury where 2 of Morse, Ibanez and Bay have to play the outfield most days that seems very defensively weak to me.
On a positive note, we're talking about too many bats for once, instead of too few.
|108. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 13:50:18|
I'm sorry, Jerry, you are a sophisticate when it comes to baseball? I'm too simple to understand what MOTO means? Thank you for clarifying it for me.
Jaso hit in the middle of the Mariner lineup because they didn't have a legitimate power hitter. And it's just as lame to argue that because he hit in the middle of the Mariner order, that he was a MOTO hitter, by his simple placement there. MOTO, in regard to league average, he was not.
Dave Cameron says..... blah.
|109. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 13:52:37|
Let me know when Dave Cameron is hired by an MLB team as an analyst, because he is statiscally superior to others who do it for a living.
|110. By: Gibbo on 01-17-2013 14:08:22|
@ Edman - earlier you mentioned... Morrow was also traded at Don Wak's request. Unfortunately, Jack should have stepped in and told him to do his job. I'm sure he learned from it.
I hadnt heard that before, was this well known? It is not relevant now or in this thread but I am interested if this is correct?
Wishhiker - spot on with the comment re having more bats, its a good problem. With another couple of additions we are talking about having good competition across the park, rather than god I hope Smoak works out or Guti stays healthy, well if they dont well great we have some backup plans.
|111. By: FatBat on 01-17-2013 14:27:43|
Jerry I remember Adam Kennedy batting 3rd. Would not call him a MOTO bat? Nor should anyone! That title imply's just a bit more talent. So should anyone talking about a MOTO bat. Nuf said
|112. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 14:31:18|
Gibbo, no it wasn't well known. I was told by a prominant Mariner scout when I asked him about the trade. Because I'm not sure how privaledged the information is, I won't divulge his name. And, I'm sure that some will question it. You don't have to believe it, that's up to you. I have discussed it with Jason and if you want confimation, you can email him.
|113. By: VikingArthur on 01-17-2013 15:13:00|
Getting a legit power hitter (regardless of position) for a platoon catcher is a great deal. I am SO TIRED of people here talking about "value" as it relates to salary. This team has plenty of money and if they didn't acquire Morse they'd pocket the money instead. The money doesn't go to some secret squirrel bank accounts. Some people are so obsessed with "not overpaying" that it almost seems they'd rather have a 60-102 team with a minimum payroll than a team that wins the WS with a huge payroll because "the cheap team got more WAR for their dollar". Ha, ha.
The fact that we have noticeably improved our offense without giving up ANY prospects is GREAT! We, if nothing else, have acquired some pieces we can auction in July. OR we may have a slightly more interesting team that can somewhat compete without giving up any future promise. Good job Z.
|114. By: ripperlv on 01-17-2013 15:46:26|
I'm going to speculate based on recent events and my imagination:
I think Bay will be given every opportunity, even an extended look into the season.
I think there's a good chance Smoak is at AAA using his last option. If he hits and get called up, Morales gets traded before the deadline. Hopefully Morales has good trade value.
Carp gets traded, possibly to Red Sox for a catcher. Zunino gets called up in June/July.
Wells gets traded with relief pitcher to Tigers for Porcello. Hate to see Wells go but there's no room.
Mariners sign LHP Saunders 2yr/16 million (?), or plan B Bedard.
Morse LF/DH/RF occasional 1B. Signs extention with M's.
Ibanez DH/LF only plays against RHP.
Bay LF/DH/RF only against LHP.
Morales full time 1B occasional DH.
Montero full time C, no DH.
Gutt CF 4/5 days week.
and battle between
|115. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 15:55:24|
I don't see the "The Mariners need to impress Felix" crowd chimming in. Which do you think might impress him more, Mike Morse or John Jaso?
|116. By: Gibbo on 01-17-2013 16:09:10|
Ha I am one of that crowd Edman, I know Felix tweeted when Vargas got traded, havent seen a message for Jaso yet. I do believe showing you are making an effort is important to keeping Felix - not as important as winning but hopefully they are actually tied in and when you make the effort and aquire/sign the right talent then you end up with more wins. At the end of the day winning will probably be what keeps Felix here - he really seems to love the city though which is just great.
Re your comment on the Wak/Morrow trade - I dont need any more than that, but it is very interesting spin on the deal and probably makes sense as to another reason for the trade.
|117. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 16:23:09|
Gibbo, I was just as shocked when I heard it. I'm sure Jack was trying to support his manager, but he trusted too much in Wak's judgement.
|118. By: Gibbo on 01-17-2013 16:30:45|
yep its a big conversation that one though, if you were a GM and your manager wants a guy out, what to do - there is a good arguemnet to support him and go with it but equally a mangers job is to get the best out of guys and make things work and from what I know Morrow may have had some issues (head wise) but a lot of that was the FO's fault and i dont think he was that disruptive, so I am surprised Wak couldnt work through it.
Seriously though - in your opinion is Felix happy for the Morse trade or dissapointed? Or does he not really care?
He would know Morse, but I imagine Morse is one of those hypo guys in a team going at a million miles and hour and you either love those guys or they drive you nuts.
|119. By: dewey on 01-17-2013 16:31:57|
EVeryone killing Jack on this deal the thing that worrys me the most the deal upton turned down! What happened to the rebuild 4 of our rope ten prospects would have been gone now this deal the only question I have does Jack have any idea what direction he is taking this club? He has the 1b/dh market covered but not starting pitching. That's all I got
|120. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 16:41:25|
My personal opinion is that Felix sees Jack doing something to make the team offense better. I'm sure he's as disappointed at most of us are, that Jack couldn't convince a few top quality Free Agents/Player with a trade clause to become a Mariner. But, I would think that he at least sees Jack making an effort and not simply walking away with his head lowered.
There are more moves to come.
|121. By: Edman on 01-17-2013 16:47:01|
dewey, of course Jack has a plan. And, he has fallback plans, if his original plan doesn't work. It kind of reminds me of the fans in the seats in the "Major League" movie. Everyone's a critic from the cheap seats.
If Jack is wrong, he loses his job. That's when you find out if the plan worked.
|122. By: Faceplant on 01-17-2013 18:10:45|
"I am very worried that Oakland traded for him because they see the value of him as their #1 catcher and use him 100+ games. He's been platooned and not given much of a chance to hit left handers and others have busted out after being in that same position after having a new club give them that everyday chance."
And this is where the greatest disparity lies, I think, between those that hate the move and those that like the move. Some are insistent that Jaso is only a part time player, while others insist that Jaso is being unfairly pigeon holed.
The way the M's have handled the catching situation is just bizarre to me. Jaso isn't good enough defensively to catch, but Miguel Olivo is? Even though Jaso is the better hitter?
Jaso can't play every day because he's a platoon bat? Miguel Olivo wasn't? Not to mention a LH platoon bat is quite a bit more valuable than a RH platoon bat.
|123. By: rotoenquire on 01-17-2013 18:53:19|
Norris is Oaklands #1 catcher why they traded Suzuki who is now Washington's #1 catcher. Jaso is a backup upgrade I would be more worried about what is up with Cole if I was Washington.
|124. By: Paul Martin on 01-17-2013 18:56:21|
THOUGHTS 24 HOURS LATER:
I am still not crazy about all the 1B/DH types on the roster, but IF MORSE CAN STAY HEALTHY, this move isn't as bad as I first thought. I really enjoyed listening to Morse and hear how HAPPY he sounded to be coming here. Here is a guy leaving a team that is a favorite to go to the World Series for a rebuilding team. He is also in his free agent year/walk year going to one of the hardest places to hit and pad his numbers for free agency and he sounds GENUINELY EXCITED to be coming back! What a difference from that other head case that vetoed our trade! It sounds like if Morse stays healthy and performs, that we should have an excellent chance to resign him.
My only remaining concerns:
1. Sounds like Morse is going to play the outfield most of the time. This makes me nervous, and I hope he stays healthy.
2. Sounds like we might have to sell low on Wells and Smoak to make the roster work. It will be hard for either player to get playing time now. I was hoping to give these guys another year to see if they can make the jump, but I just don't see where they get their at bats now? Maybe Smoak spends half a year in AAA until we trade Morales for prospects at the trade deadline in July?
3. I bet Oakland gives Jaso a full time role, something Seattle just wasn't going to do. Will be fun to see how he does!
4. Zunino isn't as close to the big leagues as some might think. He has only had 44 games in the minors. Even super stud Buster Posey needed 170+ games before he was ready.
5. Hope they give Montero a chance to catch 100 games this year before Zunino takes over. Then Montero can take over his new gig as DH (unless he is part of a big Stanton trade to Miami in the next year or two!).
|125. By: Mackie on 01-17-2013 19:05:09|
I'm not the A's, but if I was I'm not sure I'd count on a guy with a career slash line against LHP of .164/.302/.230/.532 to be an everyday kind of hitter. Granted, last year only 42 of his 294 ABs were against LHP, but that slash was just .119/.250/.143/.393.
It seems to me there was a reason the M's batted Jaso against RHP in 87% of his ABs. I'll hazard a guess and say I think the A's will use him against RHP at least 80% of the time.
Others may have busted out after being in a situation like Jaso has been in, but do they do it at age 29 or 30? I suppose it has happened in the past, but when I look at his career stats I have a hard time believing he could get his OPS up into the .600s against lefties, or ever post a slugging pct. higher than his OBP in a given season. But I did enjoy watching Jaso as a Mariner, and I hope he can find success in Oakland (just not against the Mariners!)
As for getting bats like both Morse's and Morales' without having to give up any prospects... this makes me happy. Morse is no Upton, but if he stays healthy he should help the offense. If he is healthy and hitting like he was late last season, Morales will surely help the offense too. Heck, maybe Ibanez and even Bay can help out. I think we're looking at moving out of the cellar this year when it comes to overall team offense. I'm looking forward to the season!!
|126. By: rjfrik on 01-17-2013 19:22:21|
Everyone says there isn't enough AB's for Smoak. I don't see it.
If anything with this trade JZ made a pretty big statement who the starting catcher is going to be. Montero. That leaves Smoak as the starting 1B and Morales as your DH. Morse is the new LF or RF. Wells becomes OF bench, he can play all three positions. Ibanez is your Vet bench bat. Bay IS NOT making this team, unless Smoak craps himself in spring training and is sent down to AAA.
That is the starting lineup and it's not bad.
|127. By: DRWheelock on 01-17-2013 19:49:51|
Wow A's screwed themselves in this deal. They just gave up Cole... a strong #2 top of the rotation starter just a few years away from the BIGS...all up for what?! Getting a partime backup catcher in Jaso?!
|128. By: Wishhiker on 01-17-2013 21:16:01|
last year Montero had a slash line vs. LHP of .322/.366/.463/.830. I'm sure they gave him as many AB as possible vs LHP which just wouldn't leave much for Jaso. When that is your other option, not using Jaso for those AB only indicates you don't expect him to do that well, not that you think he can't hit LHP.
|129. By: Wishhiker on 01-17-2013 21:17:51|
that and Olivo was DH those days, you know...
|130. By: rjfrik on 01-17-2013 21:22:59|
Cole as highly projected or polished as you think Wheelock. He was shelled in high A ball this year and demoted down to A ball.
He's a power arm, with not very good off speed stuff and location problems. Projecting him as a #2 right now is a little high, IMO.
|131. By: Jerry on 01-17-2013 21:43:08|
Ugh, I don't understand why nobody gets the whole Jaso playing time issue.
No catchers play everyday!
Even elite guys usually only catch 3/4 of the time. Guess what? That's about how often teams face RH pitchers.
This isn't a difficult concept.
Jaso is a very valuable player because he kills RH pitchers, and as a C, all you have to do is start another guy against lefties. Between that, and PH appearances, it's not hard at all to limit his exposure to southpaws.
|132. By: rjfrik on 01-17-2013 22:47:32|
I meant "Cole isn't as highly projected..."
|133. By: Edman on 01-18-2013 02:19:16|
I get it, Jerry. But Morse, if he stays healthy, can be used theoretically everyday, Jaso cannot, regardless of the position he plays. He happens to be a catcher, and nothing else as a position player. He shouldn't be used against lefthanded pitching.
I didn't see teams being so impressed that they were knocking down the door to get Jaso. So, I wouldn't say he's very valuable. Valuable, yes.
If you think he's so valable, who do you suppose other teams would trade to get him? Someone better than Morse?
Value is relative. You choose to look at his value as a catcher. I agree, he's valuable. For the Mariners, apparently, they value a power hitter in their everyday line-up, more than they value having a valuable catcher against righthanded pitching.
I hate WAR and the "value" aspect. It's changed the game into turning players into tokens. You just put the tokens in the machine, and you get your soda. Baseball is about many things, including stats. Constructing a lineup based only on WAR doesn't work for me. It's about balance. Clearly, Seattle was unbalanced. There was little power in the middle of the order to drive in runs when they were on base. I understand the value of OBP, but it's most effectively used, in front of hitters who are more capable of hitting extra-base hits.
What I see too much of is people ONLY looking at WAR. It's probably the best stat out there, but it's not the only consideration.
Jack probably has a few more moves in mind. The painting isn't done, so let's stop worrying about one color in the pallette. Let's wait to see how the picture comes together.
|134. By: Edman on 01-18-2013 02:22:54|
#124, Seattle has one option left on Smoak, so there is no need to sell low on him. What it does do is make him come in hard and strong to make the roster. What's wrong with competion. As for Wells, so far in his career, he needs a splits partner to be effective, which spells #4 outfielder. I don't think it's at all accurate to assume both are gone.
|135. By: DKulich44 on 01-18-2013 03:49:53|
Go check out how many HR last years WS Champions hit and explain to me why a team absolutely needs power in the lineup again. Power is nice, but runs are runs are runs, and scoring them and keeping them off the board win games. Not just homers. Jaso helps score runs at roughly an equal clip as Morse. Two ways to skin a cat. He also gains value because of his position compared to Morse. He's also cheaper and has more years of control. All things considered, the two players are pretty similar in helping to score runs and limit runs. So fine, fair trade? Sure, but the Mariners thought process here is like yours, that you absolutely need power to win games. That's not technically true, and it's been proved many times over. They made a trade from a position of roster weakness to a position on their roster that's already over stocked.
Also, in reference to your post at 109, Dave's been offered jobs for teams doing exactly what you said. He prefers his current position, and likes working from home, so he's turned them down. Not trying to be confrontational, but get your facts straight before you sound off. I don't always agree with Dave, but he's a pretty solid baseball mind, and I give him the benefit of doubt most of the time.
|136. By: Jerry on 01-18-2013 06:15:37|
Again, I'm not as furious about this deal as a lot of people. I just thunk they used questionable logic in evaluating their own players. And the consensus among experts seems to be against this move. It seemed to me to be a trade made of desperation. But we'll see how it works out.
Regardless, I don't see this club as a contender. Not even close. Most likely Morales and Morse are in the trade block next July. I thunk they need another year to develop the young guys already on the roster and bring up the talent in the upper levels of the system. I don't think Mike Morse will be around to contribute to the team by the time they get back into contention.
|137. By: Jerry on 01-18-2013 06:16:53|
I hate to say this, but my confidence in Jack has really taken a hit this offseason. It's starting to seem clear that he's much better at amateur talent evaluation than constructing a ML roster. He's done a great job with the farm system, but the moves at the big league level have been questionable at best. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm wondering if this current front office is capable of really building a winner.
|138. By: maqman on 01-18-2013 07:04:32|
I respect Dave Cameron's knowledge and writing but he does have some entrenched positions regarding some players, Upton in particular. In one of his first chat sessions after he joined Fangraphs he stated that he would trade Felix for Upton straight up. That's not something I think he said, it is exactly what he said, although he's never repeated it since then. He is still overbalanced on Upton and is similarly prejudiced regarding Jaso. I appreciate Jasos's value but he had no medium or long term future with the club with Montero and Zunino available or on the near horizon. Z sold high on him and essentially got a MOTO bat for a busted bullpen piece, Lueke.
I have a hard time reading the complaints about the deals for Morales and Morse (the M&M Boys) when I recall reading the cascade of posts at the beginning of the off season (and before) about how the M's HAD TO GET SOME MOTO BATS! (I think most of us recognize the meaning of MOTO bat.) Well Z tried to give Hamilton $100MM and two $25MM option years and to give Arizona four very good prospects for Upton to meet those demands and they were not willing to take what we offered. Given that I'm satisfied with what he was able to get and the price he paid for them. Yes we are overloaded with 1B/DH/LF options but I see that as a good thing as some of them are not going to work out or get injured. I doubt if Bay will stick but for $500,000 he's a cheap chancer. Ibanez is a nice bench bat who the Yankees were glad they had last season but we still overpaid in my mind but hey this is baseball's hell hole and we have to tempt people to get them to come here. I like how glad Morse is to come back, that sends a good message to other players, not to mention Felix.
As observed by several commenters, Z is not finished and I'm going out on a limb and suggest he might just find a catcher and a rotation piece or two yet. I'll go further out on that limb and predict the M's will win 82 to 88 games this season. Anyone else want to put a number on their opinion?
Lastly I think the M's have increased their chances of keeping Felix and added several million dollars to their next local media contract and given more people more reasons to go see them play this season. Given his handicaps I give Z a B+ for this off season so far.
|139. By: masonb on 01-18-2013 07:39:22|
The Giants last year led the league in triples. That offsets alot of the "lack of HRs" argument. They were a team tailored for their ballpark. It's not like they were barely getting runs across the plate.
Jaso is and will most likely be a platoon guy moving forward so your arugment about his value vs. Morse is a little off, seeing as though Morse is an everyday guy.
I think it's hard to look at trades in a vacuum right when they are made and make an accurate judgement. Alot of people are also failing to realize the value of getting a potential draft pick if these guys leave here next year. Not to mention(and not trying to sound like Edman here) that there's alot of factors that we aren't privy too, like the player's personality. All indications are that Morse is thrilled to be here. You take that and combine it with the fact that he is in his walk year, and I'd be willing to bet the house that he has a better and more productive year than Jaso. Even by the statheads' standards.
There's still other moves to be made. I think it's best to wait until the whole puzzle comes together before judgements are being bandied about. Especially considering that even from a stats perspective, it's not like Seattle got owned in this trade.
|140. By: Jerry on 01-18-2013 07:41:19|
I think some of you guys completely missed my point about "MOTO bat".
I wasn't arguing that anyone who hits 3-5 in a lineup is a MOTO bat, or that you guys were using that term incorrectly. I was arguing that the concept itself is bunk and not useful.
Concepts like this are symptoms of thinking about players as "types" instead of accurately judging their contributions to winning. That is why people have spent so much time and energy developing stats like VORP, WAR, etc.
The goal shouldn't be getting certain types of players, but getting good players. That is why lots of people like WAR: it allows you to compare guys who are good in very different ways. Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Buster Posey, Michael Bourn, Ben Zobrist are all really good players, but contribute to their teams in different ways.
The reason why I don't like the Morse deal is less about the specifics of the trade and more about what it represents. It seems to me that Jack and colleagues went into the offseason looking for a "power bat" or "MOTO hitter". The team clearly has problems scoring runs, so that made sense.
They started with guys like Josh Hamilton and Justin Upton. Both those guys are good PLAYERS. They do lots of things well: hit for power, get on base, play defense, etc. When they couldn't get those guys, they way too stayed focused on power. And they ended up with a guy who has power, but almost nothing else. He's a "power bat", but not much else.
The M's don't need MOTO hitters. They need good players. In this deal, they traded 3 years of a better, cheaper player for one year of a guy who fits into an archetype. Good GMs should know better.
|141. By: masonb on 01-18-2013 07:47:46|
Ok Jerry, So what should they have done then? Be specific. Give us some examples of moves Jack should have made.
|142. By: ripperlv on 01-18-2013 07:53:25|
I hate the term "MOTO BAT". Not even sure what it is, except slang for blogoholics. It doesn't have a valid definition and therefore should not be used in an argument or supporting statement. IMHO.
I'm warming up to Morse, just hope he stays healthy. If he does, this is JZs right handed power bat, and I see extension in his future. If Smoak doesn't pan out, Morse is the future 1B. Otherwise he is a future OF/DH. I predict Morse will be here 3-4 years. If he can stay healthy.
|143. By: Edman on 01-18-2013 07:57:26|
The over-exaggerations are amazing. Jerry is ready to dump Jack, for his questionable trade. And, I meant it not to be plural. How did Jaso and Vargas end up in Seattle? Oh, that's right, Jack traded for them. He managed to get rid of a political nightmare and bring back Jaso. He got Vargas as a small part in the Putz trade. He got one of baseball's top prospects (a hitter) for two young pitchers, be it good, but expendable pitchers.
It's pure over-reaction to the Jaso trade, who wouldn't even be in Seattle, if it wasn't for Jack. Some of you give Jaso a near God-like status. I get that he was a personal favorite for some, be it by his WAR value, or his play against righthanded pitching.
If Jaso was so damn valuable, why weren't teams knocking down Jack's door to get him? Certainly, someone that valuable should have been part of the Upton trade.
I like Jaso, but for crying out loud, his value is limited to how he can be used.
It's a bunch of crap that simply by the events and timing of the off-season, that some are whining. I say again, if Jack had been able to trade Vargas and Jaso to get Kendry Morales and Michael Morse at the beginning of December, before other moves were made, most here would be jumping for joy.
Jack doesn't have a plan, he has several plans, because you don't always get what you want, when you want it. So, you keep your mind open to other possibilities. Because some feel they know enough about baseball to make the kind of decisions Jack has to make, doesn't mean that you know how to run a team. The WS Championship team without power thing is lame. Not all teams are constructed the same way. Clearly, it was a team with superior pitching, that Seattle doesn't have at the moment.
It's amazing to me that so many people react to one thing, as if that one the one card that kept the house of cards standing. If Jaso was injured, would it mean the end to everything Jack is trying to accomplish? Was he that damn important to turning things around?
|144. By: Edman on 01-18-2013 07:58:54|
No, lots of people worship WAR as a God.
|145. By: Edman on 01-18-2013 08:02:45|
And, give Jack credit for anticipating that Morse and Morales might become available, and act quickly. I guarantee you that other GMs would have been ready to jump on both.
|146. By: sexymarinersfan on 01-18-2013 08:08:08|
I haven't made a single post anywhere, since the John Jaso for Michael Morse trade went down. I've been wanting to soak up as much information as possible and look at all the aspects of the situation before I started shooting my mouth off minutes after the trade happened, complaining and whining about how awful this trade is, like 90% of the fans, before they even had a CHANCE to process what this move means. I see some of us are already starting to sing a "different tune" now that they've heard from the former ballplayer's interview upon coming back to Seattle. So here goes.
At first glance this trade doesn't make much sense on paper. Giving up 3 cost controlled years in John Jaso, a catcher, which is what this team currently needs to compete next year, for a guy who can barely play a position other than DH, Michael Morse. It's obvious that Zdueriencik's focus has been to acquire "middle of the order power" for this linueup. Up until this point of the offseason, the only other "power" piece that he's acquired has been Kendrys Morales, and we had to pay a hefty price at that to get him in Jason Vargas. John Jaso had no future on this team beyond the arrival of Mike Zunino, unless the club decided that it was going to part ways with Montero, which I highly doubt given all the scouting reports, the youth, the number of years of control, what we had to give up to get him, etc.
If Zdueriencik is trying to build a winner around Felix Hernandez, the time to do it is NOW! Felix is not going to be around forever to watch this bunch of youngsters down on the farm, mature and grow and then say hey, we're now ready to compete. I'm only 35, but we're finally in contention. There's a certain window that's only open for a certain number of remaining years before Felix might have to take a step back from being that ACE, back to being relegated down to a #2 or lower. The bottom line is that he needs run support, right now. How many could be "WINS" has this organization lost him due to lack of run support? Or would-be CY YOUNG awards?
Jaso was only able to be fit into the lineup on certain occassions. 1)When a LH pitcher was on the mound. 2)When Olivo or Montero needed a day off. 3)When he was needed as a pinch hitter late in the game. Now Jaso's "great" bat against RH pitchers may be gone, but you couldn't use him AND Montero in the lineup at the same time! That's what Raul Ibanez was acquired for. To continue to give you that LF clutch power bat off of the bench without having to risk losing both of your catcher's for the sake of one pinch hitting AT BAT. I can totally see Wedge and Jack talking about how to effectively construct this roster to do just that. Wedge was probably frustrated from not being able to use Jaso for Montero when Olivo was hurt because there wasn't any insurance. Now there is.
Michael Morse wasn't Zdueriencik's first option. Josh Hamilton was. Jack and Chuck "tried" to spend this huge chunk of change that we had left over from the Ichiro and Milton Bradley departures. It didn't work, and when that failed, he went above and beyond what most baseball experts termed an "overpay" to acquire Justin Upton, who invoked his no trade clause. This is Jack's 3rd option, Plan C if you will. It's not sexy, but it's not horrid. He's basically swapping out parts.
Now some of you want to keep arguing that we gave up 3 cost controlled years in Jaso to just one of Morse. My take on it is this. John Jaso had a career year on a bad team. He was a "platoon"/back up player. The price to acquire a "power hitter" for a "back up" player in this day and age is straight up thought of to be crazy! You can't use Jaso everyday like you can with Morse. Jaso doesn't put as much fear into a pitcher like Morse would at the plate. Jaso's defense behind the plate compared to that of Morse's in the field isn't a whole heck of a lot better. Jaso was gone half way through the season anyways due to the call up of Mike Zunino. We just bumped up his schedule a little early. Morse balances out this lineup with his RH bat and power, and looks to take advantage of the shorter porch in LF. Something that we don't have on this team. Gutierrez isn't to be counted on as such, but was vital to this team when he was in the lineup when healthy.
You've now got a power hitter than can play in the OF(barely) and give you insurance at 1B(barely) who is excited to be coming to Seattle. You've now got 2 30-homer guys in the lineup to take a TON of pressure off of the youngsters. I like the chances of signing Morse to an extension as someone had already stated on here too.
I was also beaten to the punch by "rjfrik" in his post at 126. He's dead on when saying that we have plenty of room for all of current pieces for an everyday lineup. The only players that I see that have a low chance of making the team are Jason Bay and Mike Carp. But you know what, that's what happens when you don't produce S@#% for a couple years. And for the Mariners fans out their complaining that there's not enough room on the roster for them, "We have too many 1B/DH, OH NO!! WHAT IS JACK Z DOING? IS HE NUTS?!" No he's not nuts. He's protecting his F#@$ing ass! That's what he's doing. He's been trying to fill the 1B void with a "HITTER". So far the closest thing we've ever had to that has been a half season of Russell "The Muscle" Branyan. This lineup just got a power infusion with the M&M boys. I count 6 ball players that can play the 1B position if you include Montero. ONE OF THOSE GUYS IS PROBABLY GOING TO PRODUCE!
I know that some, if not most of you reading this still are not sold. I'm letting you know, I'm not here to sell you anything. This is just my take and observation. It would do well and serve as a good reminder for most fans to try and "think" rationally before losing their minds and posting and pouring out all of there first emotions over a site before digesting the "entire" facts. I like the fact that this team still has it's ENTIRE Top 10 prospects while still adding 2 MOTO bats to the lineup. Yes two valuable fan favorites are gone in Jaso and Vargas, but damn the future looks really bright!
If you had asked me what would be harder to acquire at the beginning of the offseason, a back up catcher and #4 LHP or TWO MOTO 30-HR power hitters, I would've asked you if you were high!
|147. By: Jerry on 01-18-2013 08:28:21|
"Jerry is ready to dump Jack, for his questionable trade."
Nice straw man argument. I didn't say that at all.
Jack hasn't had a good offseason, and the thing that worries me is the rationale behind the moves he's made. I don't think he's a terrible GM. I'm just off the "Jack can do no wrong" bandwagon. I don't think Billy Beane, Theo Epstein, Jon Daniels, or Mike Rizzo make these deals. Again, to belabor the point, I don't hate this trade. I just don't like the through process.
"Some of you give Jaso a near God-like status."
And you accuse ME of "over-exaggerations"?
"No, lots of people worship WAR as a God."
Again, you accuse others of "over-exaggerations"?
WAR isn't a perfect stat. But WAR - and other similar stats - are appealing because they provide a means to compare players with very different skill sets. The Miguel Cabrera versus Mike Trout debate was a great example. That debate was really interesting, precisely because the two players are both so good, but also so different. Brendan Ryan is another example. He's a valuable player, but one of the worst hitters in the major leagues. Stats like WAR give us a means to quantify that. Its not perfect, but - right not - its the best stat of its kind to compare overall player value.
Part of the reason it is useful is because it allows us to challenge stupid and outdated concepts like "MOTO hitter" and "power bat".
"I say again, if Jack had been able to trade Vargas and Jaso to get Kendry Morales and Michael Morse at the beginning of December, before other moves were made, most here would be jumping for joy."
Why would you say this? The Vargas trade made sense. This one didn't. Why lump them? Why would one sound trade make it more reasonable to make a bad one later?
"Jack doesn't have a plan, he has several plans, because you don't always get what you want, when you want it."
Yeah, but that doesn't mean you make a bad move, just to make a move. Bad transaction < no transaction < good transaction. Making no trade is ALWAYS an option.
"The WS Championship team without power thing is lame."
Why? Its a fact. This shows that you are way too indoctrinated in the idea of player types and roles. History shows there are lots of ways to win. The best way to win is to bring in better players. The overwhelming consensus of this trade is that the M's got worse.
Again, I'm not convinced that this trade will work out poorly for the M's. And even if it works out the way I suspect, it won't cripple the club. I JUST don't like the rationale or thought process that's been used to justify it at all.
This trade has exposed what to me seems like a bad process. There is the difference between process and outcomes. Outcomes are often based on luck or unknowable circumstances. The Chone Figgins signing was a total disaster, but the process behind that signing was sound. Based on the available evidence at the time, nobody could have predicted that outcome. The Brandon Morrow trade was a bad process. The Morse deal also shows a flawed process.
|148. By: Jerry on 01-18-2013 08:52:00|
"If Zdueriencik is trying to build a winner around Felix Hernandez, the time to do it is NOW!"
With all due respect, I couldn't disagree with this more. The chances of the M's contending in 2013 is very very very slim. The Rangers and Angels are both MUCH better teams, and the A's are also well ahead of us right now. I think the timing issue is actually one of the best arguments against this trade. Felix is signed through 2014, and seems to genuinely like it here. The M's should just look to resign him. Regardless, 2014 is a better year to look to contend realistically. Neither Morse or Morales are likely to be here then. In all likelihood, we'll either trade them next July for prospects or get draft pick compensation, both of which move the time table backwards.
"Now Jaso's "great" bat against RH pitchers may be gone, but you couldn't use him AND Montero in the lineup at the same time!"
Sure you can. We did it for most of last year, and it worked out fine.
"That's what Raul Ibanez was acquired for."
Jaso is a much much better hitter than Raul. Look at Raul's stats from the last two years:
Thats in declining playing time, and for a guy who will be 41 next year. Jaso's a better hitter than Raul right now, and that gap will just widen. Adding a third catcher isn't as much of an issue as some make it seem to be.
"This is Jack's 3rd option, Plan C if you will. It's not sexy, but it's not horrid. He's basically swapping out parts."
Again, I hate to belabor this point, but "we had to do something!!!" isn't a good rationale for a move. If a transaction makes the team worse, it's not worth doing. Simple as that. Most people don't think this trade makes us better in 2013, and it certainly doesn't help us beyond that.
"(Jaso) was a "platoon"/back up player. The price to acquire a "power hitter" for a "back up" player in this day and age is straight up thought of to be crazy!"
Jaso isn't a backup. Any catcher who can catch ~120 games per year isn't a backup. No catcher plays every day. Given his handedness and splits, the M's could limit his exposure to LH pitching while still having him do the brunt of the catching. Only a handful of teams use their starting catcher more than this.
Your use of "platoon/backup player" and "power hitter" is more faulty logic based on player types. That is why guys like Jaso are undervalued. Billy Beane is the king of identifying undervalued assets. That's why he won this trade.
If the M's had explained this move by saying "we are convinced that Jesus Montero can be a solid starting catcher, and we needed to open up playing time for him" I would have at least been able to follow the logic.
I don't mean to pick on you. I just don't like this line of thinking that we're seeing from the front office.
|149. By: sexymarinersfan on 01-18-2013 09:07:04|
That's an interesting point of view. I hardly agree with any of your points. I like your opinions though Jerry.
|150. By: Edman on 01-18-2013 09:17:44|
LOL.....the God-like status comment doesn't apply? I see many, including yourself, act as if this trade was the last desparate act of a insane man.
|151. By: Jerry on 01-18-2013 09:37:48|
"Ok Jerry, So what should they have done then? Be specific. Give us some examples of moves Jack should have made."
This is difficult to do, since there is so much we don't know about player preferences and what other teams are looking for in trade. So specifics are kinda silly. But here is just an example of the types of moves I'd have liked to see this offseason:
-resign Iwakuma and Perez (both solid moves)
-Melky Cabrera (2 yrs/16 mil)
-Dan Haren (1 yr/13 mil)
-Jose Valverde (1 yr/4 mil)
-Scott Hairston (1 yr/2 mil)
-Nate Schierholtz (1 yr/2.5 mil)
-Vargas for Morales (didn't consider this before the trade, but it makes a shitload of sense)
-Hector Noesi (or perhaps Carlos Truinfel) to MIA for SS Yunel Escobar (the Rays got him for nearly nothing)
-Wilhelmsen, Ryan, and Wells to DET for Rick Porcello, Avasail Garcia, and a draft pick
Rotation: Felix, Haren, Porcello, Iwakuma, Ramirez
I'd have Jaso, Montero, Smoak, and Morales split time at 1B/DH/C. With four players for three positions, and Jaso never needing to hit against lefties, getting each of them 400+ ABs. Exactly how that playing time would be distributed would be determined by health and performance.
Who knows if these guys would have wanted to sign with the M's, or if the trades above would have worked out. But all the figures listed above are either realistic or what the guys actually went for. I think that this is a better team than we have right now, but it better balances the future with the present. The M's keep all their prospects and draft picks, and pick up one addition of each. Plus, they add guys like Porcello, Escobar, and Cabrera who could help beyond that.
|152. By: Jerry on 01-18-2013 09:43:22|
"LOL.....the God-like status comment doesn't apply? I see many, including yourself, act as if this trade was the last desparate act of a insane man."
Why do you always have to resort to hyperbole to make your point?
I don't think Jaso is the best player on the team, much less "God-like". I just think he's better than Mike Morse. One can take that stance without reifying him. There is a huge grey area between "god-like" and "better-than-Morse".
If you look above, I've consistently said that I didn't think that this trade was a crippling move, but that I didn't like the thought process behind it.
Please stop trying to mischaracterize my comments.
|153. By: Edman on 01-18-2013 09:44:45|
Amazing how Jaso has suddenly become a guy who catches ~120 games, when he's never done it in the majors. That's a pretty bold assumption. You know that the extra workload wouldn't affect his level of play? He's never come close to that number.
|154. By: sexymarinersfan on 01-18-2013 10:01:50|
For the record, Melky Cabrera was never going to sign with Seattle.
Even after all the talk this offseason and evidence of Seattle not being able to lure ONE top FA hitter, you think that Seattle would somehow magically rope in Cabrera of all players, when he's got a hitter's paradise in Toronto with protection from Jose Bautista and such, for a "Death to flying things" pitcher's park? Are you serious? Even Justin Upton didn't want to come here, and invoked his no trade clause. And it doesn't look like it'd be over money or else he'd be a Mariner right now.
|155. By: Jerry on 01-18-2013 10:11:31|
"Amazing how Jaso has suddenly become a guy who catches ~120 games, when he's never done it in the majors.....You know that the extra workload wouldn't affect his level of play?"
I don't have any idea, and neither do you.
But I think the reason he hasn't gotten consistent playing time is due to his mediocre defense more than concerns about workload. We'll certainly see, because he will almost definitely get the chance to catch regularly with Oakland.
Clearly the M's decision about this isn't based on defense, because Jaso is much better than Montero.
And that is the biggest question mark in this deal for me. I wonder if the M's think Montero can become a passable everyday catcher. If they don't, then this trade makes little sense. If they do, and it works, they will come out of this looking good. But, given how much Olivo played last year, I'm skeptical that they hold this opinion of Montero.
I'm reserving judgement on this until we see how playing time is allocated. A lineup with Montero catching, Morales at DH, Smoak at 1B, and Morse in RF would be kinda interesting. If Montero is getting playing time at DH, and that pushes out Smoak, I'd be less happy. If Ibanez and/or Bay are getting consistent starts at DH or OF (barring a spate of injuries), then this team needs new management.
|156. By: Jerry on 01-18-2013 10:15:13|
"For the record, Melky Cabrera was never going to sign with Seattle."
How could you possibly claim to know this?
Besides, someone specifically asked me to come up with better offseason moves, and I did so with the caveat that personal idiosyncrasies of players are beyond our ability to speculate on without any proof (like we have with Upton).
There is zero evidence that the M's even made an attempt to sign Cabrera. As a guy who just had a career year playing half his games in a stadium that is just as extreme a pitchers park as Safeco, why would we operate on the assumption that he wouldn't want to play here? More often than not, players follow money.
|157. By: Edman on 01-18-2013 10:38:32|
Montero wasn't as horrible a defender as some made out. He only has to hold the position down for a year, maybe two, then Zunino takes over. And, Seattle is likely to go after another catcher, so he'll spend some time at DH.
And it's rather unfair of you to call the comment about Melky not coming to Seattle as conjecture, when you drove that way in your claim that Jaso could catch ~ 120 games. Neither is likely, IMO.
|158. By: maqman on 01-18-2013 11:34:02|
Jerry I usually really like your posts but, and it is nothing but my opinion on this occasion, today you have been stating your opinions yet disparaging other peoples. You may be right in some cases and the possibility exists that you might be wrong in others. We are all entitled to our opinions and nobody is required to agree with them. You think the Jaso-Morse trade was a bad move, I know there are a lot of people that might agree with you. I disagree with your viewpoint on this particular question but I know that doesn't make me right either. Time might eventually decide the matter or it may just get muddled up by chance and circumstance. The earth and the moon will still stay together and I hope we can agree that's a good thing.
Despite disagreements I think the rude discordance hereabouts for a few days seems to have mercifully dampened down. I hope we all can agree that's a good thing too. I enjoy the company and opinions of all who add to the dialogue. I just don't agree with them all.
|159. By: Jerry on 01-18-2013 13:01:06|
Maqman and Edman,
There is a difference between an opinion (I love this trade!) and speculation (Melky Cabrera would never sign with Seattle). I may disagree with peoples opinions, but everyone is certainly entitled to them. But I get a bit annoyed when people make sweeping statements that have no basis in fact, especially the personal feelings of players. Is there any basis for the speculation that Cabrera was against coming to Seattle?
Besides, I only brought it up because someone specifically challenged me about what I would have rather seen happen, and it was issued with a disclaimer.
The 120 game thing is completely different. Its not uncommon for catchers get 120 starts behind the plate. In Jaso's case, the M's decisions about his playing time last year were based on Wedge not having much faith in him early on because he had never played at that high of a level. Later on, he clearly favored defense (Olivo) at the position. I never saw, read, or heard anything that suggests that he couldn't physically handle that many starts. ~120 games isn't an abnormal workload. Why should we think he couldn't handle it? He doesn't have any injury problems I'm aware of. Everything I have ever seen about him being a part-time player is based on his perceived inability to hit lefties, not an inability to stay on the field. As a lefty catcher, he is ideally suited to be the strong half of a platoon. In that case, ~120 games is entirely reasonable.
I do agree with the Montero as C part. That is the one part of this trade I kinda like. Hopefully it results in Montero getting a long look behind the plate before they downgrade his positional value. Counting on Zunino to take over the job midseason isn't wise, IMO. But having two plus hitters at one of the most premium defensive spots is a great problem to have. If Montero can't stick at C, this trade is MUCH worse for the M's.
I didn't mean to sound rude. I like discussing baseball, and sometimes blogs don't transmit tone very well. It would be dull if everyone here agreed with each other all the time, but we are all rooting for the same thing.
|160. By: rjfrik on 01-18-2013 13:20:06|
#146. Nice post sexymariner. Agree with all points.
|161. By: Edman on 01-18-2013 13:22:46|
Jerry, I fully agree with your thoughts about posters "assuming" that they know what a player would do. We often believe they see things the same as we do, and they don't. In that vein, also don't assume that because you didn't hear about Seattle having discussions with Cabrera, doesn't mean they didn't happen. I doubt they did, but Jack is very tight about the conversations he has. I doubt that Melky comes to Seattle, for the same reasons as Hamilton and Upton. Money talks, but as we saw, Toronto was extremely aggressive this off-season. And, they may have presented their case to him in exactly that way.
|162. By: TPedro on 01-18-2013 13:47:14|
I know that a lot of folks are peeved because Jaso was the only one in the lineup last year (emphasis on LAST YEAR) that could take a walk...but if you look it at. It's a lot easier to find a backup catcher than a MOTO bat.
Are we enamored with Montero's defense? Not really, but the kid can hit and he's only 23. We can find a stop gap backstop to spilt time with Jesus (i.e. Shoppach or Paulino).
Do we have too many 1B/DH types? Heck yeah! But that's a nice problem to have going into Spring Training. Believe me...Bay, Carp, Smoak...two of the three will be gone come opening day.
The revamped lineup looks a lot better with Morse in the middle. Maybe pushing Smoak down to 6th will take a little pressure off. Bottom line...things are looking better already and really isn't that what we all want? I be able to follow a team that can actually SCORE some runs!
|163. By: dewey on 01-18-2013 22:03:36|
So no one has Raul starting and Bay not even on the team so 3.4 million for 1 bench player and one release? Ed me and you dont allways get along but jesus can you make JZ sound like he has done the same thing Schurholz and Gillick have done its year 5 time for something to happen and quickly i believe. Im very very concerned about Starting pitching and are catching situation this year everyone thinks we have the next Buster Posse coming so hopefully we do but today we dont look good behind the plate .
|164. By: Mackie on 01-18-2013 22:53:08|
Edman, I agree with your point about Montero in #157. While he may not really be Seattle's "catcher of the future", I don't think he is so bad that he couldn't catch 50% or 60% of the time, splitting the position with someone else they would sign (and in #162, TPedro mentions two good candidates in Paulino and Shoppach, while JAC lists those guys + more in his article).
No reason they couldn't try that arrangement for 2013, especially if it means not rushing Zunino to the majors. We're all excited to see him up here, but I don't want to see him here until he's ready.
TPedro, I love your optimism. You sound at least as excited as I am for the season to begin!
|165. By: Uncle Al on 01-19-2013 02:19:38|
I must admit I never saw a Jaso trade coming but even though it probably is an overpay, Upton and other deals were even worse. Zduriencik said right from the beginning this year he probably couldn't get it done. He still needs a C and SP this year which he will get and that's where he should stop for now. The farm system is totally intact and gets another year of growth and he still has his #12 draft pick. This line up isn't bad and we'll see what happens by next year. There's no reason to be upset about anything as it was very obvious from the beginning that this wasn't going to be the year.
|166. By: rotoenquire on 01-19-2013 10:20:14|
I would see a signing before a trade when it comes to a SP. J. Jurrjens, S. Marcum, C. Young are the guys that have what i would look for. adding one of them to be a #3,4 would put Beavan into the Pen.
|167. By: maqman on 01-19-2013 11:35:48|
Jaso is a good player I wish we could have kept but Morse is a good player (not a good fielder but Guti and Sanders will balance him out) who has raw power which Safeco demands. Jaso is a nice used Honda, dependable and with a some zip, great for daily driving. Morse is a used Humvee but only two years older, it can be used daily and can tackle terrain the Honda can't, granted it costs more to fuel and insure. Life constantly requires us to make choices, we don't all make the same ones. Which is good or life would be really boring. This choice, good or bad, pales beside the ones involving Hamilton and Upton. Thank the baseball gods those two came to naught, they were high albatross potential deals. Jaso/Morse not nearly so much. I will cheer for Jaso as he continues his career, except against the M's. I think he thinks this was a good deal for him, I hope so.
I'm kind of in favor of a trade for Romero, which would include a top bullpen piece and another good piece. I like his years of control left. However paying a free agent, which they can afford I believe, would let us keep our prospects and bullpen unhindered. The catcher(s) should be free agent(s) and shouldn't be a major cost. God forbid they bring back Olivo!
|168. By: Paul Martin on 01-19-2013 11:43:21|
@166 no way Paxson makes the team out of spring training, much less a #3 starter!
Maybe Millwood? Maybe Capuano via trade?
I get a laugh when I read posts by people that think we can get a good starting pitcher by trading scraps like Noesi, Triunfel, or Carp, all players that won't make the team...
I would check out the health of Liriano too.
I am sure Jack will pick up a starting pitcher and back up catcher in the next 10 days, and the roster WILL BE SET for spring training.
|169. By: Lamda on 01-19-2013 12:19:18|
Edman - I know you take a lot of sh*t on this board but your post on 103 is one of the smartest posts i've seen someone post in the 10 or so years i've been involved in these boards, lol.
|170. By: Panhead55 on 01-19-2013 12:48:34|
One free agent worth kicking the tires on, who has not gotten much press this off season, is Tim Stauffer. He had surgery last year to repair his flexor tendon and reportedly is doing well. He claims he is only two weeks behind his normal spring training preparation. He hasn't been in demand, that I've heard, and could be an inexpensive #4/5. Stauffer was very effective in 2010 and 2011, although he had the benefit of Petco.
|171. By: Paul Martin on 01-19-2013 12:57:17|
1B Corey Hart of the Brewers is out for 3 to 4 months, could we trade them Carp for something of value now?
|172. By: WSChamps2014 on 01-19-2013 13:02:21|
169, post #103 is one of the smartest posts in 10 years? I guess hyperbole has taken over this thread in the two or three days since I last posted, while Edman's 36+ posts eat up 25% of the thread. And he said I tried to overwhelm the site with volume to try making everyone like me.
It would stand to reason someone would make a good comment with so many attempts. But that was neither insightful or original. People have said that same thing about Dave Cameron for years. I just hope you were being ironic, because wow, yeah that's not even one of the best 10 comments in the thread.
Post #146 was far more thought out and a high quality comment and it wasn't even close. #103 was just a dig at a person who wasn't even here to defend themself and I'm not even a fan of Camerons' blog posts. I would rather read the other guys on there like Marc W or just check in to see how the other half thinks, but targeting Cameron on another blog seems more petty than anything else.
|173. By: Paul Martin on 01-19-2013 13:06:02|
@172 who cares who had the better post? Give me a break! it is like a kid telling another kid, "my dad could beat up your dad."
|174. By: rotoenquire on 01-19-2013 13:44:24|
@168 it looks too me that the Ms are looking for either Hultzen or Paxton to step up inthe spring. Even if they add one more picther I believe that is the case. And Paxton is the older of the 3 and has had more time in the minors. So he right now makes the most sense. And until something changes that. This is something I am seeing. Then again I was the one who got ripped for saying to go after Morse once the Nats signed Morse and said they should draft Zunino a year before the draft. But what do I know.
|175. By: WSChamps2014 on 01-19-2013 13:49:41|
As for the Jaso/Morse trade...
I think Morse's confidence that he can "hit it out of the Grand Canyon" was seen as a positive for a clubhouse that tried blaming the fences instead of their approach at home.
That he went to the Nationals and they instantly became better might have the management believing he can do the same thing here, as unrelated as it might be.
Zduriencik might have thought the deal did this to the starting lineup depending on how Wedge and he plan to build the roster:
DH Montero DH Morales
C Jaso C Montero
1B Morales 1B Smoak
2B Ackley 2B Ackley
3B Seager 3B Seager
SS Ryan SS Ryan
LF Wells LF Morse
CF Gutierrez CF Gutierrez
RF Saunders RF Saunders
Technically, that is a much better offense. If they put less value in defensive metrics, they might feel they made a huge step forward and only need another pitcher or two.
Felix and potential future free agents may have heard Morse's excitement about playing in Seattle, and the thought that he WANTS to be in Seattle rather than playing for the best team in 2012, might start to have an effect on other players coming to play for the Mariners.
While I'm not happy about giving up Jaso, it's more about not maximizing the return and the rest of the team being a bunch of hackers (low OBP, rather than they all strikeout a ton), than a need to keep him on the team for future success to occur.
I feel like we just traded Jaso for a LF version of Olivo with more power and it sucks when that's my first logical correlating point between Morse and Seattle.
I also don't like that Jack couldn't get Morse for a separate deal than the one that sent Jaso down the road. Teams that might have paid more for Jaso in a 2 team trade...
Padres (Grandal has a 50 game suspension, plus checkout what Hundley and Baker did last year, bad.)
Dodgers (Puig or Seager? Maybe Capuano+),
Yankees (probably could have got Mason Williams or Tyler Austin for him, they played Posada for his bat)
Cubs (could we have got one of Javier Baez or Jorge Soler?)
Marlins (maybe 4 years of Logan Morrison and 3 years of Jeff Mathis for Jaso?)
Oakland (Cespedes for Jaso straight up? The have Crisp, Reddick and Young still)
Overall, it's not as much of an overpay as it looked like on the surface. Jaso probably is a 2 WAR player over the next 3 years getting paid about 2 of the 6 WAR through arbitration. That means his excess value is $22M.
For Morse to be worth that, he either needs to put up 5 WAR plus or he needs to put up 3-4 WAR and get us a comp. pick. I don't like the trade, but I also don't hate it. I'm sure I'll have an opinion in 8-9 months or less, but that I can't really get overly emotional about it, tells me it's a fairly even trade.
|176. By: WSChamps2014 on 01-19-2013 13:53:50|
173, because Edman is impossible to deal with already. The last thing he needs is people kissing his ass for the mediocre posts he throws on here. It's about keeping his arrogance within a range that is tollerable to others, myself included. I personally don't care who has the better post, should we add "likes", so that people can know how they are being preceived? I think I have the right to remind Edman of his hypocricacies, so he might be, as impossible as it may seem, more humble. I just don't know what will happen with Edman's ego if he actually starts getting praise. Look how he's been so far after being marinated in criticism!
|177. By: Edman on 01-19-2013 15:46:31|
Not about me, but thanks for the rating boost.
|178. By: Edman on 01-19-2013 16:38:48|
#175, a few points....
I feel like we just traded Jaso for a LF version of Olivo with more power and it sucks when that's my first logical correlating point between Morse and Seattle.
Really, Olivo? When was the last time Olivo's OBP has even been near .300? That's a horrible comparison. I'm not sure that I agree with your logic.
.I also don't like that Jack couldn't get Morse for a separate deal than the one that sent Jaso down the road. Teams that might have paid more for Jaso in a 2 team trade.
And, just how much less can you go from Jaso? Would you have been happier if they traded Paxton for him, which is a close comparison to Cole? I wouldn't.
Jack should do nothing because a team "might" make a better offer? Other teams have had ample opportunity to try to deal for Jaso, and until now, none stepped up to give Jack what he wanted. Oakland for one, has had discussions for two months. Trades are not made for "value", they're made for need. Oakland didn't offer what Seattle wanted. And the Nats didn't see enough in Jaso to trade him straight across, because they didn't need him.
To be blunt, Jack is the only one who knows what kind of offers he was getting. You, me and everyone else here, have no idea how the whole league values Jaso.
Value is relative. You worship the God of Advance Statistics, the M's have a different God(s). It doesn't make one any better than the others, only different.
|179. By: Edman on 01-19-2013 17:05:10|
WSCHamps, this will anger you, but I just can't take this list seriously.
Padres (Grandal has a 50 game suspension, plus checkout what Hundley and Baker did last year, bad.)
Dodgers (Puig or Seager? Maybe Capuano+),
Yankees (probably could have got Mason Williams or Tyler Austin for him, they played Posada for his bat)
Cubs (could we have got one of Javier Baez or Jorge Soler?)
Marlins (maybe 4 years of Logan Morrison and 3 years of Jeff Mathis for Jaso?)
Oakland (Cespedes for Jaso straight up? The have Crisp, Reddick and Young still)
Wow, just how valuable to you think Jaso is? A guy who can't play everyday, because he can't hit lefthanded pitching?
Jack would have flown Jaso to Oakland in a private jet, given Billy Beane a new Austin Martin and washed it had he offered Cespedes for Jaso.
|180. By: dewey on 01-20-2013 10:03:07|
#179 Ed i couldnt have said that any better . Sometimes i feel like some folks on this board think other teams have no scouts and the Mariners have the only good players? Just 2 examples Dodgers just gave Puig 42 mil and Cubs gave Solar 30 mil sure i will give you either for Jaso unreal! This isnt a fantasy baseball dream up site its real players.
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