| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 08-19-2010 |
I stayed up late two nights in a row to get this done. Not because it was the hot topic the past two or three days but because the Venezuela and Dominican summer leagues are over and this is a long-time coming.
The following list of top Latin American Prospects includes those that started or played a large enough portion of their season in the summer leagues outside the states. The Arizona Rookie League and Appalachian League Pulaski club rosters are not eligible.
And yes, I went to 11, not 10. Not because there were 11 worthy -- there may have been six worthy names, there may have been 18 -- but because it was different.
1. Brandol Perez, LHP
Perez is the M's top Lat Am prospect, led by a fastball-slider-curveball repertoire with a hard changeup on its way. The organization has him focusing more on the curveball now, both for the good of his arm and for the further development of what projects as the better of the two breaking balls. He's touched 88 mph but sits 83-86 and just turned 17 earlier this month.
The Dominican native made five starts in 2010, including four over the final three weeks of the season when he fanned 28 batters in 21 innings of work. He did not allow an earned run during the same span. His fastball is generally straight but he gets good plane considering his high three-quarters arm slot.
Despite lack of experience Perez grinds it with runners on base, a sign of maturity, and has a solid pickoff move. He's also a good athlete and fields his position well.
His control and command are slightly below average, but that's typical for most 16 and 17-year-olds, foreign or domestic. His frame suggests projectability, which is what lands him in the top spot here.
2. Alexy Palma, OF
Palma's calling card is plus raw power but his swing is long and gets flat at times. He does make good contact versus fringe stuff in the VSL, however, and is willing to work the count.
Palma offers a strong enough arm for right field and is a decent athlete but may end up at first base if he fills out as much as expected. He's played some centerfield but at best lands in an outfield corner.
Palma may have a shot to join the likes of Guillermo Pimentel and Phillips Castillo in the states in 2011, when he'll be just 18.
3. Vicente Campos, RHP
Campos has touched 90 mph in the past, and gets some sink on the pitch as he sets up a 45 curveball. Has above-average arm strength, so he does project to add velocity naturally, but his inconsistent release point has interrupted the development of his breaking ball and limits his otherwise-solid mechanics.
Campos does tend to lose his delivery after 60 or so pitches, and his control, perhaps a 45 or 50 on the 20-80 scouting scale, outweighs his command, which probably sits at a present 40.
4. Felipe Burin, 2B
Burin handles the bat well and has good wrist strength for a middle infielder of his age and experience. He reaches the gaps consistently despite being less than 170 pounds thanks to a solid swing plane, good timing and hip rotation.
He's a switch hitter but has a betters wing from the right side, though he projects to hit for average from the left side, too. He's an above-average runner with good feet and great hands, but lacks the lateral range to profile at shortstop long term.
From the 30 seconds of video I saw, I envision the 18-year-old Burin as a productive center of left fielder if he's allowed to develop the skills over time. He has enough arm strength for short or third, but profiles offensively as a second baseman.
Seven of his 15 errors were of the throwing variety, three on the Adrian Beltre special, aka, slow rollers down the line at third. Placido Polanco is a comp I've heard more than once.
5. Ivan Ramirez, C
The 6-foot-1, 190-pound Venezuelan may be the organization's second-best catching prospect behind Ji-Man Choi, who could leave Ramirez at No. 1 if he outgrows the position as some expect. Ramirez, 18, bats right and offers solid contact rates and a chance to hit for average despite a swing that needs work.
He controls the strike zone well and is patient for a teenage bat. The VSL Mariners' staff has tons of confidence in Ramirez and he brings above-average arm strength to the table, though he's not consistently accurate yet.
He has the athleticism to stick at the position long term but his pop times grade out as satisfactory right now. An English-speaking teammate told one scout that Ramirez has improved dramatically since signing, lending to some projectability on the defensive side.
6. Carlos Posso, OF
Posso, a right-handed hitting Columbia native, just turned 17 this month and played sparingly this summer, but displayed a lot of maturity and baseball intelligence. His swing is too long and flattens with two strikes, but he's not afraid to get into deep counts.
He profiles in center or left thanks to 55 speed, but is not adept on the bases just yet, often showing a bashful approach. He knows the strike zone and can be overly selective at times. His arm strength gets mixed reviews but is likely somewhere between a 40 and 50.
7. Estarlyn Morales, RF
The Dominican Republic product is just 17 and hit but .184 in 34 games this season. He has plus bat speed, though, and may be the best athlete on the DSL Mariners roster. His deep load slows his swing down making him susceptible to the better fastballs and the poor umpiring – wide strike zones that stretch from the rib cage to the middle of the shin – have impacted Morales as much as any bat in the circuit considering his willingness to take pitches that are close to the strike zone.
His arm may work best in left, but his mechanics are holding him back a bit, like that of Philadelphia Phillies prospect Domonic Brown.
8. Leonel Cortoreal, LHP
Cortoreal brings smooth arm action but his delivery is considered raw and inconsistent, even relatively speaking among 17-year-old arms. He sits in the 83-87 mph range now, but a lot more is likely in the fastball.
His control is well below-average at present but the stuff has promise, including a two-plane slider he throws at two different velocities. He's also 6-foot-5 and as he fills out the 4-seamer could reach as high as the mid-90s thanks to big time arm speed.
9. Noe Berro, SS
Berro is the organization's top shortstop prospect in the Latin summer leagues, offering promising defense, a 55 arm and a set of physical tools that could lead to an offensive outburst.
He's 6-foot-3 and 180 pounds -- built very much like former M's infielder Juan Diaz -- and is a left-handed hitter with the ability to draw walks. That ability, however, come more from his willingness to take pitches, rather than a skill set that includes solid pitch recognition and strike zone judgment.
If he outgrows shortstop, and there's a good chance Berro does as he's not 17 until August 21, center field could be on the table as the Dominican has above-average natural instincts and a strong work ethic.
10. Jean Acevedo, 2B
Acevedo's upside may be as a reserve, but he's a 55 runner with a swing that could take him places his secondary skills cannot. He works counts, but needs better pitch recognition – sliders are his biggest problem and he will chase a fastball up.
He's average at second base, but outclassed the rest of the VSL to earn a rare mid-summer promotion to the Arizona Summer League. He hit .330/.370/.400 in the states in 31 games after posting an OPS over .900 in Venezuela. His ability to make contact is impressive considering his selectivity and the number of two-strike counts he sees.
11. Efrain Nunez, RF
Nunez jumped on the radar two years ago as a six-figure signing but his lack of progress has red-lighted his prospect status. He works counts and offers medium power and can also play left and right field well. His arm plays in right but isn't ideal and his switch-hitting days remain in tact despite the lack of game power.
He's a 50 or better runner and an instinctual player but unless the bat takes a huge step forward in 2011 he'll leave any prospect conversation in a hurry.
"It's the swing," said one scout, "but it's also his lack of understanding the count, the situation and who he's facing. He's winging it."
Others: Janelfry Zorrilla, Isliexel Gonzalez, Martin Abad, Enrique Rosario, Wander Marte, Daniel Mata, Jochi Ogando.
Mata offers the most projection among the "others," turning 17 last month and having touched 88 mph with his fastball before signing. But Mata's secondary stuff is very raw and he's not as far along as the arms in the above 11.
lat-am-top-11
Comments
The following 45 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: Chipanese on 08-19-2010 05:45:24 I was expecting to see Rudy van Heydoorn in your list. He had an excellent kk/bb ratio and even hit 7 homers. Is his age a problem? |
| 2. By: Miguel on 08-19-2010 08:04:39 No love for Miguel Brito? He outhit several of the guys listed as a 17 year old third-baseman this year. he's already large - does he project as a DH? |
| 3. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-19-2010 14:03:03 RVH does not have the upside necessary -- yes, age is a problem. Brito can't play third and has little experience at other positions. There are rumors he's 2-plus year older than he claims, too. Without feeling somewhat comfortable with his upside, he's impossible to rank. One scout pre-signing was not on him at all because of his work ethic and "actitude" around the field. He acted with an attitude somewhat and didn't carry himself well, both figuratively and literally. Reminder: As I have said dozens of times before, athletes change physically, both in terms of size and athletic ability, and in terms of baseball skill, more between 16 and 20 than any other time in their lives. A ton can change between today and April, even. It's the equivalent of Mike Trout. He was OK in 2008, but was a stud in '09 and now the top prospect in baseball. |
| 4. By: randallball on 08-19-2010 16:02:31 Thanks Jason. I was really interested in Palma and Rodriguez. I know none of our int signings from this year have started playing yet, but if Castillo, Calderon or Torres were in the mix would they be among these top 11 (or even garner note)? Not sure if you have seen anything of any of them because of the very nature of INTFA, so maybe not a fair question. |
| 5. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-19-2010 16:58:46 I only included players that played in the VSL or DSL this summer. Pimentel is certainly one of the top 10 prospects FROM Latin American in the M's org right now, as is Castillo, but neither played in the summer leagues so they were not included. Calderon and Torres would definitely have been top 10. |
| 6. By: Lailoken on 08-19-2010 17:10:34 Is Brandol Perez dominating with offspeed stuff & left-handedness right now then? If his fastball is sitting 83-86 & generally straight except for the downward plane that sounds pretty hittable & doesn't fully explain him dominance. Is Henry Perez in the same camp as Van Heydoorn minus the stateside cup of coffee failure: too old, not enough upside? He seems to have performed well the last four years: 280 innings/286 strikeouts/71 walks/232 hits/1.08 WHIP. Heck, this year he's running a 8.3 SO to BB ratio. If he's a legitimate 6'3 170 one would think he still has a chance to fill out some for an uptick in velocity. |
| 7. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-19-2010 17:23:40 Brandol Perez is facing zero competition, getting wide strike zones and isn't having to face lineups a third time around -- he's not going 7 innings per or anything. Henry's velo has actually taken a hit since signing... nuff said. |
| 8. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-19-2010 17:34:55 Something else I should add is that players that signed at 16 or 17 and are still in the Latin summer leagues at 19 tend to be there for a reason, including work ethic, injury proneness, attitudes, visa issues and age discrepancy concerns. |
| 9. By: randallball on 08-19-2010 18:54:56 #5 - Cool, thanks. |
| 10. By: Lailoken on 08-20-2010 01:08:05 Thanks Jason. Great stuff. Brandol Perez did it again today: 1 hit in 5 innings w/ 1 walk & 6 strikeouts. |
| 11. By: Jimabbottsrighthand on 08-20-2010 09:31:51 Typically, if a guy is sitting 83-86 at 17, what does he project to top out at? I understand everyone develops differently, but I'm talking averages. |
| 12. By: randallball on 08-20-2010 10:10:15 Well, I threw 83 @ 16 (also had a better time catch/throw to 2nd than Ernie Whitt @ Dave Valle baseball camp)...and topped off blowing up my shoulder @ 18. Does that help? No? Hmmm... |
| 13. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-20-2010 13:13:31 Jim, It depends on things such as his delivery, physical projection, arm speed. If Perez was 5-11 and throwing 83-86, but touching 88 mid-season, we wouldn't be talking about him. But he's 6-4, 175... suggesting he's going to fill out and get stronger, and with improved mechanics his velo will move up, and probably quickly. Michael Pineda, until late 09, was sitting 88-91, touching 93 on occasion. Now he's sitting 93-96 and touching 98. |
| 14. By: randallball on 08-20-2010 13:40:21 Hey Jason, is James McOwen still out with the shoulder injury from ST? What's the prognosis on his return? |
| 15. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-20-2010 14:16:20 He is still out. I never asked the specifics on his injury -- since he's not a prospect -- but he is expected to return in time for instructs this fall. |
| 16. By: southpaw360 on 08-20-2010 14:55:27 Thanks for the article. I was really looking forward to it and it didn't disappoint. |
| 17. By: marinermutt on 08-21-2010 01:42:20 Thanks for the info Jason. On a side note, Steve Baron has been hitting much better lately. Strikeout rate is coming down and average and OBP have been going up. Still only 19 years old, so he still have some upside I would hope. May not make your next top 30, but at least there seems to be some improvement. |
| 18. By: Chipanese on 08-21-2010 04:45:22 Jason, what's Ji-Man Choi's projected power output? So far he's only showed gap power, and if he does move from catcher to 1B he'd lose a lot of value. |
| 19. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-21-2010 11:15:41 Choi just turned 19 and slugged .541 in his first professional season in the states. Screw the home runs right now, he's hitting, and there's power in the swing. As he matures, the swing will become more consistent and the power will tick up some. Just as expect Triunfel's to do once he gets to a point in his development where he can cut loose. But if he has to move off catcher, he's a middling prospect for me. But you can say that about pretty much every player currently playing a premium defensive position. "If he has to move to 1B, he loses tons of value." That would be correct about... Ackley, Halman, Saunders, Moore, FRanklin, Liddi -- everyone. As for Baron... he's not good. |
| 20. By: km4_1999 on 08-21-2010 13:45:44 Jason if you have it easily I'd be interested to know what these young guys signed for. Many discussions here about the 7 figure INTL signings but these names don't look to be those. Nunez is but rest don't look familiar? |
| 21. By: Lailoken on 08-21-2010 16:31:37 Nunez jumped on the radar two years ago as a "six-figure" signing. |
| 22. By: Edman on 08-21-2010 17:44:31 Baron isn't a prospect yet, but at least he's making progress. He's a kid just out of high school. Any progress has to be considered good. I don't know if he'll ever be a major league player, but if he takes instruction well, and applies what he is taught, he might at least be able to stop a passed ball, not that I'm still stinging from Rob Johnson's inability to be reliable as a backstop....LOL. Anyway, I'm gonna see the Aquasox tonight, so I'll get to see him first-hand. Nobody here talks about them, but they've been dominating most of the NWL this year. They deserve to have some of us in the crowd. |
| 23. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-21-2010 18:42:28 Baron is so far from being a prospect I just don't know what to say. Nothing jumps out, not even arm strength. Some intangible questions, too. I'll post the BP I have of him so everyone can see. |
| 24. By: bobbysee1 on 08-21-2010 22:24:51 So the question is, JAC, if Baron is inept in so many ways how did the scouting break down to render him a high draft choice worthy of a 1 million dollar (?) signing bonus? I know this isn't an exact science, but cmon' man. |
| 25. By: Edman on 08-22-2010 02:04:09 I have to disagree about arm strength questions. I saw him nearly pick off a runner at first, then come back again, next pitch, and pick him off, even if the umpire missed the call. Then, he ended up throwing him out easily when he tried to steal. He's got good instincts and has the confidence to go with it. I think some are way too critical. Being a kid coming from high school, in a league of mostly college kids, he's as good as I've ever seen in the NWL. He's certainly not overmatched. |
| 26. By: marinerseric on 08-22-2010 04:57:39 I went to everett and saw the game tonight. His arm looks good, however I am not an advanced scout. It was only one game. I`d say let him grow a little and a few years down the road judge this kid. The game was okay, almost saw a major fight and someone got ejected. Did not know that happens at minor league games. |
| 27. By: slamcactus on 08-22-2010 12:40:48 "He's not overmatched" in SS is pretty faint praise for someone drafted as high as Baron. Nobody expected him to hit right away. The big disconnect is between those who see potential and those who don't. Someone high up in the Mariners' scouting team thought he could develop some power to complement his strong defensive profile. There's nothing wrong with a player like that. The problem is where he was drafted and the kinds of talents that were available with that pick. I'd be a lot happier about having Baron in the system if he was a 3rd or 4th-rounder. |
| 28. By: southpaw360 on 08-22-2010 12:44:22 I agree that Baron is a non-prospect. It was a bad pick to begin with and then Baron held out for more money than he verbally agreed upon. I hate when players verbally agree on a deal and then back out. To me that shows a severe lack of character. That (almost) million dollars could have been spent alot more wisely elsewhere. There were a dozen or so players picked in the next 20 picks that would have looked great as a real prospect in our farm system. |
| 29. By: Edman on 08-22-2010 13:56:58 Some of you need to forget where Baron was drafted. Good pick or bad, it's over and in the past. He's a rookie like all other rookies, regardless of when he was drafted. He needs to be judged as a player, against others in the league, and in the farm system. You don't think the M's knew he would be a long-term project? Sometimes, they don't draft for immediate return, but for his potential impact when he does get to the major leagues. That was a rumor that he had a pre-draft deal worked out. It's probably likely that they discussed money, but that they had any kind of formal deal is unknown. Not many sign for a discount. He got what he got, because he could. The M's didn't have to sign him. The M's scouting department, right or wrong, chose Baron and not just to waste a pick. What kind of major league catcher he'll be isn't likely to be obviously apparent right now. In a couple of years, we'll have a better idea what kind of prospect he is. You don't have to agree with the draft pick, but be fair and not use where he was drafted when you're evaluating his ability. |
| 30. By: Jason A. Churchill on 08-22-2010 15:13:59 Edman, You can disagree all day long, but you're wrong. Baron's arm strength is average. It just is. Nothing stands out. That doesn't mean he's skill-less, but he doesn't have one single plus tool. Fact. |
| 31. By: Edman on 08-22-2010 22:02:57 He may have average arm strength, but his accuracy on the three throws I saw were near perfect. It's kinda like having a 100 MPH fastball, I suppose. If you can't throw it consistantly for strikes, it's not much of a tool. He's got a lot of growing to do yet. I'll start worrying about what he isn't, in a couple of years. |
| 32. By: John_S on 08-23-2010 10:44:22 "Some of you need to forget where Baron was drafted. Good pick or bad, it's over and in the past. He's a rookie like all other rookies, regardless of when he was drafted. He needs to be judged as a player, against others in the league, and in the farm system." He should be judged in context of where he was drafted. Would you rather have Baron or Tanner Scheppers who was available? Baron or Kentrail Davis? Baron or Tyler Skaggs? There were better players available at that slot and he should be judged against those other players who he was drafted in place of. |
| 33. By: subterranean on 08-23-2010 11:49:00 There has been an interesting debate going on at Fangraphs over the organizational rankings and how to assess the performance of a front office and how much weight to assign to the performance of the front office for the success or failure of a team. And frankly, while I get where you are coming from Edman, one of the ways we assess a front office is their performance in the draft and their willingness to sign the top talent. The reason some of us keep harping on this pick is because it looked like a mistake at the time and it looks more so now. The draft is one of the key strategies for getting talent into the organization - for developing and for trading. And it is troubling, because in context, it looked like they got played over Baron's money demands (since they had supposedly had a pre-draft deal worked out) but also because they had better talent available that they skipped over. Now, maybe Baron will prove everyone wrong, but I think the odds are against it. In my mind this raised a red flag, either because they believed in him so highly, or because the money was being limited from above. |
| 34. By: Edman on 08-23-2010 12:20:04 No John, that's not at all true. He should be judged against his credentials, good or bad, as compared to other catchers in a similar age group, against other catchers in the league he's playing in and against other catchers in the organization. The Mariner's organization should be judged for where they drafted him. It's a burden he to carries, but not one he chose. The M's, for whatever reasoning they used, decided that he was their draft pick. It's fruitless at this point to worry where he was drafted. It accomplishes little to nothing. Now, he has to be evaluated for future potential to the organization. Where he was drafted, in regard to is abilities, is meaningless. If you want to evaluate the M's organization for drafting him, that's fair. But, it's over and done, good pick or bad. Baseball teams are riddled with bad draft picks, and good ones. Many drafted before him will struggle to get to the majors. To allow for time to reach the majors, here's a small sample from the 2005 draft, first round picks 15-30. Lance Broadway Christopher Volstad Carl Henry Cesar Carrillo John Mayberry Mark Pawelek Clifton Pennington Aaron Thompson Jacoby Ellsbury Brian Bogusevic Matthew Albidrez-Garza Craig Hansen Joseph Devine Colby Rasmus Jacob Marceaux James Greene There are a few names very recognizable name, and many that aren't. Point being that teams make mistakes all the time drafting. I'm just no going to obesses about it, because every draft could be micro-evaluated round by round. Were there better picks? Sure, and that's even more obvious with a little history applied. Many on this site find it important, and I guess I'm in the minority. But, that wouldn't be a first for me. |
| 35. By: Edman on 08-23-2010 12:26:03 #33, I agree completely. Draft pick value is used to rate the organization's ability to restock itself. Bad picks on a consistant basis, lead to poor farm systems. My point was, separate where Baron was drafted, from his ability. It's not meaningless in regard to his future value. It is a good tool to evaluate the Mariner's front office in regard to draft pick selections. |
| 36. By: slamcactus on 08-23-2010 13:55:56 "Point being that teams make mistakes all the time drafting." There's a difference between drafting a player who doesn't pan out and making a "mistake." Of those guys, the only ones who stood out at the time as huge mistakes were Broadway, who didn't have a high enough upside for the selection, and Mayberry, whose performance never lived up to his tools at the collegiate level. Pawelek was a bit of a reach for the Cubs as well, as he was all fastball. There are guys who don't pan out, and there are guys who just don't have a scouting profile to justify their high selection. Baron is the latter. It was just a terrible balancing of a player's present abilities and future projection. The problem with the Baron selection has nothing to do with whether or not he makes it to the majors. The problem is that he is a high risk, low reward player. That's a really bad blueprint for success, and an awful use of a very valuable draft selection. |
| 37. By: Edman on 08-23-2010 15:15:49 slam, most would agree with you, including myself. But, you're basing your opinion on media and internet coverage. Teams often take "surprise" picks. Because, they scout and assess players to a much deeper level than the average follower of baseball talent. I don't know how highly they rated him on their draft board, but you assume that the information you have, is as good or better than the countless hours of unbiased scouting that was done, pre-draft. Have you read actual scouting portfolios, or are you basing your opinion on what you've read? |
| 38. By: slamcactus on 08-23-2010 15:16:44 33: Something tells me the second half of your last sentence was very much in play in the '09 draft. What likely happened is the Ms reached a deal with someone they saw as more of a 2nd round talent to try and save a little money. It's tough to fault them, since they had to open the pursestrings to pay the #2 overall selection in the draft. Hopefully in future years the team will A) be picking later, and B) be willing to invest decent money in those early round picks and on signability guys. It was rough seeing the Red Sox come away with six different first-round talents this year because of willingness to pay. The Mariners really need to become one of those teams. |
| 39. By: rjfrik on 08-23-2010 16:46:43 "Some of you need to forget where Baron was drafted. Good pick or bad, it's over and in the past. He's a rookie like all other rookies, regardless of when he was drafted. He needs to be judged as a player, against others in the league, and in the farm system." I couldn't disagree more with this statement Edman. If I drafted you in the first round (which in my opinion is a very comparable person to Baron) would any fan of the M's be happy? I would of basically paid a million dollars and wasted a premium pick on a person that has a 0% chance of ever making the big league club. ZERO. I don't care if the kid had a couple of nice throws down to first when you saw him in action. The bottom line is he will never make it past AA and yes I'm using an absolute here, but based on my evaluation of the kid he will never make it past AA if he even makes it that far. There are countless players that we passed on, countless that have far more value then Baron. It arguably could be the worst pick in Major League history and WAS the worst pick in Mariners history. You can counter argue this statement but you are the only person I've ever met or talked to that feels that way that you do, which is very strange, because you are usually very knowledgeable about baseball. Unfortunately I will not be able to argue about this in great detail as I'm on my honeymoon in Italy, currently at Lake Como and I snuck away from my wife for 15 minutes to check emails and baseball news. I'm not sure how much sneaking away time I'm going to get. Jason, I know you are getting married here shortly, my one word of advice is hire a comparable wedding coordinator, he royally screwed our wedding up, even though no one attending had a clue, the wife and I did and it added a lot of unwanted stress the day of. Other then that have a blast, it truly will be the best day of your life!! A M's fan from Italy signing out. |
| 40. By: rjfrik on 08-23-2010 16:54:58 "Teams often take "surprise" picks. Because, they scout and assess players to a much deeper level than the average follower of baseball talent." Just read this Edman. This statement is true. But at the same time you can't count everything a scout says as true. There are a ton of mitigating factors that could make a certain player more attractive to a certain scout. But when 99 out of 100 scouts say the same thing about a certain player I would think you would have to believe the consensus over the individual. In this case our scout was just DEAD WRONG. Sometimes you have to call a spade a spade and this is one of those cases. I admire your loyalty to all things M's but sometimes loyalty can be jaded and make you perceive the wrong perspective on things. This is one of those cases. Ok. I have to get down to the lake. Later guys |
| 41. By: Edman on 08-23-2010 18:19:28 I've got news for ya, rjfrik, ONE scout did not evaluate Baron. Several did, and most likely including Tom McNamara, as the director of scouting making the decision on that pick. A guy they are considering for the first round, goes through many checks and cross-checks. It makes your statements nothing more than ranting without rational thought. Who's perception is wrong? I know better than to make statements about a single scout influencing that choice. I'm smart enough to know that 99 out of 100 is a grossly exaggerated claim. Which consensus would that be? You have seem actual major league scouting reports on Baron? Because some guys on the internet pass around thoughts like facts, doesn't make them real. And please, the worst pick in major league history? It's not even the worse pick in Mariner history. Tito Nanni ring a bell? There have been some major failures that go way beyond Baron. And, what's your evaluation of Baron? Do tell how much you've personally scouted him. Made many trips to watch him play? I'm betting most of your opinions come from the opinions of others. Honestly, when you exaggerate beyond reasonable, it makes and valid points you raise, questionable. |
| 42. By: rocketdawg31 on 08-24-2010 01:28:06 Rjfrik, if you have a chance to go see northern Italy- particularly Riomaggiore, the first of the Cinque Terre places, I totally recommend it. Best ocean view I've ever seen. Edman, rjfrik- Steve Baron's jury is still out. I place his potential of him becoming a big leaguer as non-zero but....that swing. Oh, dear God, that swing. It's one of the worst I've ever seen on video. I just don't like his chances, but there he is...he's out there. Let's see what he does. |
| 43. By: rocketdawg31 on 08-24-2010 01:29:30 Argh. I'm in the wrong article blogs. |
| 44. By: slamcactus on 08-24-2010 15:27:12 "Have you read actual scouting portfolios, or are you basing your opinion on what you've read?" I've read actual scouting reports. Many of them. I don't base my opinions off of media reactions to draft picks. I do, however, base my opinions off of scouting profiles, which can give you a good sense of a player's range of possible futures. Just like there's a difference between not reaching the majors and being a mistake pick, there's a difference between a surprise pick and a mistake. Ben Revere was a surprise pick, and even though he's stalled, I will never call him a mistake. His tools and below-slot deal made him a very intriguing pick for where he was selected. Ditto Tyler Colvin, who shot up prospect rankings after the draft. His high draft slot made people take a closer look at him and notice there were some real tools in there that had been overlooked. On the other hand, Preston Mattingly was a surprise pick and to this day no non-Dodgers scout can fathom what Logan White was smoking when he drafted the kid in the first round. He does not have a single plus tool. He was both a surprise pick and a mistake, and this was as true on draft day as it is today with the benefit of hindsight. Like Mattingly, Michael Garciaparra was both a surprise pick and a big, huge mistake. He never had anything remotely resembling the tools to become a major leaguer, and every team in baseball whose scouting departments weren't run by incompetents like Frank Mattox knew it. Plenty of surprise picks are defendable and even smart. Steven Baron was a mistake. |
| 45. By: slamcactus on 08-24-2010 15:31:11 41: Edman is right about one thing (several, actually): Baron is nowhere near as bad a pick as some other Mariner mistakes. Garciaparra was far, far worse. At least in a perfect world, it's possible to squint and see Baron as a future big leaguer. Garciaparra had no chance from the day he was drafted. That said, the team's scouting department asked us to take a lot on faith when they looked at Baron and saw a project worth undertaking. I don't see it. At all. Even the rosiest opinion of him paints him as a high risk, low to medium-low reward player. That's just a bad pick. |
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