| By Jason A. Churchill |  | By 12-12-2011 |
The offseason is really just getting started as most free agent remain -- including one 275-pound masher -- and very few trades have been consummated to date.
Beyond potential additions to the roster, including hitters and pitchers alike, there is the question of the batting order. Eric Wedge has told the media on more than one occasion that he considered moving Ichiro Suzuki out of the leadoff spot last season, and that he's considering a change heading into 2012.
Fact is, it's a mistake to start next season with the aging and declining -- and free-agent-to-be -- Ichiro batting first in the order.
I'm not going to get all geeky on you and use some statistical formula to support the notion that Ichiro belongs batting elsewhere. I'm simply using common sense here.
Even if Ichiro bounces back from his worst season and hit 290/340/380, or thereabouts in 2012 -- which is possible, by the way, there's no question he was somewhat unlucky in 2011 -- it's much better for the Seattle Mariners, both in the immediate and distant future, that Ichiro's role be diminished on this club.
Even though he was unlucky last season, there is no doubt he's in decline, and even the most optimistic of projections suggests he should not bat leadoff for any big league club. A small part of that is because he was never an ideal leadoff bat, but in his prime years still got on base enough to more than warrant the placement.
The M's will add everyday players -- plural -- between today and Opening Day 2012, but there's not much argument for repeating 2011 and letting Ichiro bat more than any other hitter on the team.
So who bats first, then?
Granted, the difference can be as little as 10-15 trips to the plate over the course of the season, but Dustin Ackley should replace Ichiro at the top of the order. Not only would he get a few more plate appearances, he's much more likely to actually set the table by getting on base -- and more importantly -- getting into scoring position.
Ichiro can still run, and figures to be good for 30-40 steals again next year. Ackley isn't much of a base stealer, though he is very capable of 15-20 bags per season. Even if we assume Ichiro has a 30-steal advantage over Ackley, however, the second-year second baseman makes up for that differential in extra base hits, and then some. And then some more.
He may only hit 10-15 homers in '12, but he's also good for doubles and triples that dwarf that of Ichiro. Getting on base, getting into scoring position, working the count. Those are the jobs of the leadoff hitter, and Ackley is the best at all three in the entire organization.
It's a bonus that he runs well, too, and is a wise baser runner, to boot.
Where does Ichiro bat?
Considering the current roster structure, I'd bat him right behind Ackley at No. 2.
There are two different approaches I like to take with the No. 2 stick in the lineup. Either put the third best hitter on the roster there, or put a speedy, high-contact bat that can bunt, possesses bat control and hits a lot of ground balls in the spot.
The latter describes Ichiro to a tee. Ideally, the club will add a better option and Ichiro then might fit at No. 9. Yes, I know, the M's will not bat Ichiro No. 9 regularly, it's a shot at his ego and may be seen as a sign of disrespect.
Back to Ichiro batting second; Ackley may get on base more than 35 percent of the time he strolls to the plate in 2012, and, while he will hit 30-plus doubles and maybe hit double-figures in triples and homers, too, he's going to find himself at first base a significant portion of the time via hit or walk.
With Ackley a threat to run, whether it be a straight steal or in a hit-and-run situation, clubs are going to hold Ackley at the bag 99 percent of the time he's there. This opens a hole on the right side that has rarely been there for him in the past because he's been batting after the bottom third of the order.
Last season Ichiro batted 164 times with a runner on first base. 164. (Sometimes there were other runners on base, too) He garnered 37 hits in those 164 PAs, 19 of which came by way of ground ball through the hole between first and second base. That's a result 11.5 percent of the time in that scenario, making up more than half of his hits with a runner on first base and 13.4 percent of the time he made contact with a runner on first base.
With Ackley batting in front of him, that becomes more of a possibility. He could bat in that situation 250 or more times in 2012, opening up the right side even more for him.
If the percentage stays true, that's an additional 14 hits, all because Ackley bats head of him. Now, I used 2011 only for the data, but there's little reason to believe Ichiro's tendencies will change dramatically from last year as far as ground ball rates and where he hits the ball on the field.
Why not bat Ackley third if he's the best hitter?
If the M's make no major additions, Ackley will start the season as the club's best bat. Batting him in the three-hole may or may not be a better idea for the season, but it's not better for the future if Ackley is going to bat leadoff down the road. If he's the leadoff hitter -- and in my opinion that is where he fits best right now -- that's where I want him batting right away.
Plus, if the club happens to add a bat during the season that fits the No. 3 hole, Wedge won't have to make a significant change mid-year, he can simply install said player and move everyone else down a spot.
I don't believe Ackley would be bothered tremendously by such a change, but he is a cat who will try to hit for power when it calls for it, and I'd prefer he just lace out line drives and let the power show up naturally.
What about the middle of the order?
Yep, if they don't add impact hitters, it will again be the worst middle-of-the-order in the game.
I'd start the year with Justin Smoak hitting third -- because Ackley and Ichiro are left-handed and Smoak can bat right versus a left-handed pitcher, breaking up a late-game bullpen move by the opposition, with Mike Carp batting cleanup.
I'd bet the farm, however, that the M's fill one of the No. 3 or 4 slot with a better option, either by adding Prince Fielder, or by making a major trade -- or both.
Either way, Ichiro has no business batting first anymore, and could actually benefit batting second.
lineups-and-ichiro-suzuki
Comments
The following 21 comment(s) for this article are shown below:
| 1. By: MarinersArmy on 12-12-2011 23:55:33 Jason, Thanks for the insight. I agree. In your opinion, what do you see as options out there for that #3 spot? Are there even any free agent types that would fill that spot? Or trade would be the plausible route? |
| 2. By: short on 12-13-2011 00:58:07 I've always felt that in a good lineup Ackley would bat second. He's patient and makes good contact, he's got good speed and can steal and run the bases. He's got a little power. But this is not a good lineup. He should bat leadoff as the best hitter who also is a good baserunner. One hopes by the time next season starts, he won't be the best hitter on the team, period. We need at least one more hitter who is of similar quality, if not the same skill set as Ackley who could hit third or fourth. If we don't I guess our lineup is Ackley Ichiro Smoak Carp Wells Jaso Gutierrez Seager Ryan Man this lineup sucks with Olivo in it instead of Jaso. With Jaso you kind of go "Ok, yeah," but Olivo puts too many righties in there and too many of them aren't good. I just pray Wedge's man-crush on Olivo dies during the offseason. If I'm Z I pay an intern to rub Olivo's stats in Wedge's face all winter long. |
| 3. By: SMariners11 on 12-13-2011 02:05:10 Lets be honest. Even with Jaso in the lineup, it sucks. Jaso doesn't take this team from sucking to "ok, yeah." 2 more bats would make this a decent to good lineup. |
| 4. By: mjkleko on 12-13-2011 03:32:01 Today, the Mariners missed out on an opportunity to add an offensive upgrade in the form of a pudgy corner infielder who can occasionally put a 'hurtin the ball, an opportunity that would have cost them peanuts. Casey McGehee was had for a stinkin' reliever, a 31 year old one with a career ERA over 4 at that. I'd have seen League go for McGahee and been fine. I'm rather disappointed. At this point in his career, can Ichiro still man centerfield? Acquire Fielder, shift Carp into the outfield perhaps for good. With Wells, Carp and Ichiro manning the grass, I could see the unit performing near the AL average, probably just a little below. With the right side of the infield providing some bonafide pop, you could live with Seager and Ryan adding their brand of "grit" while attempting to survive at the batters box. At this point I think this roster needs an older ubertalented hitter (read: confident) to provide some leadership- this is a stupid reason to shell out $180mm and analysis worthy of a Steve Kelley column, yet I see this as an area of need with Ichiro's stardom clearly behind him. At this point, is there anyone in the clubhouse capable of carrying Samuel L.'s Pulp Fiction wallet? Ugh I hate Olivo. Also, I'm being denied access to subscriber content yet I fairly sure my subscription hasn't expired or anything. |
| 5. By: malcontent1 on 12-13-2011 04:03:54 Ichiro, with a runner on first, other than with the bases loaded, has pretty mediocre numbers for his career. His best batting average with a runner on first is .326 with runners on 1st and 3rd; his career average. It's .319 when there's just a runner on 1st, and .313 with runners on 1st and 2nd. Having that gap doesn't seem to have helped him much yet. |
| 6. By: micahjr on 12-13-2011 06:24:27 I'd me curious to see what quality of baserunners were ahead of him in his career batting with people on first. Ackley is likely better. |
| 7. By: aerichner on 12-13-2011 09:33:15 @2, Wedge has an Olivo man-crush? Who would you rather he start last year, Bard? Gimenez? Moore was injured... Come on, love him or hate him, Olivo WAS (sadly) the best option on the team. + Wedge didnt sign him. and yeah, Ackley, unless they dont add a bat and want to go Seager/Ichiro/Ackley or something... |
| 8. By: Edman on 12-13-2011 11:32:35 Agreed aerichner, the Olivo bashing is a bit unfounded. Is he a great catcher? No. However, he's at least an average player with a little power. His numbers would have been better, had he not been catching so many games. His presence in the lineup became a necessity. Of course, we could always have kept Rob Johnson.....geez some people have a short memory. Imagine how bad it could have been without him? He did lead the team in homeruns and RBI. It's sad that he was the team leader, but that's not his fault. |
| 9. By: nwmsfan on 12-13-2011 12:29:32 Ummm I'm not sure it's bashing or unfounded. If you have a .253 OBP and are a pass ball machine you aren't a good baseball player. Thankfully Jaso will give some good ABs from that spot. |
| 10. By: Edman on 12-13-2011 12:40:13 That's your opinion. Compared to Rob Johnson, his predicessor, he was Johnny Bench. Perhaps you missed Rob "Which Way Did it Go" Johnson's passed ball rate in 2010? |
| 11. By: Edman on 12-13-2011 12:57:44 BTW....even without the great OBP, Amongst AL catchers, Olivo was seventh in runs scored (54), fifth in homeruns (19), eighth in RBI (62), second in stolen bases (6) and sixth in OPS (.641). I wouldn't call that bad, either. He's not a great catcher, but he's not the worst, either. |
| 12. By: Mackie on 12-13-2011 12:59:55 I believe Olivo is better than Johnson was, and Jaso is possibly better than the both of them. Who knows where Adam Moore fits in, or if he does? Getting decent hitting from that position is a real bonus, it seems, to the point where I'd be happy just to see our catchers getting on base more than 30% of the time. Cutting down on the PBs would sure be great too. Did fatigue play into the problems Olivo had at times last year with catching the ball and blocking pitches? I wonder. I think that with Jaso on board, Olivo can be more fresh when he plays. I believe it will help the team on both offense and defense. Re. who should bat leadoff, I agree Ackley ought to be the guy this season unless they acquire someone else more bonafide for the job (or discover a different in-house solution, whoever that might be). If they do, I'd bat that new person first, Ackley second, and Ichiro somewhere lower in the order unless he is obviously rebounding from last season. |
| 13. By: nwmsfan on 12-13-2011 13:46:32 I wouldn't want Johnson either. They're both bad baseball players and aren't average regulars. All those rankings only show how bad the position is for offense and because he ranked high doesn't mean he is close to a good hitter. I realize your point is there isn't much better but I'd rather take a guy who can handle Felix and Pineda's stuff and can draw a walk without getting himself out every 3/4 trips to the plate |
| 14. By: short on 12-13-2011 15:01:09 Olivo sucks. Among catchers qualified for the batting title he finished last in OPS, wRC+, and wOBA. And it wasn't particularly close. And he played mediocre to bad defense while doing it. He was second in the league in passed balls and in wild pitches (which good catchers prevent). He hit some home runs. And that is the sum of his contribution. But yeah, Wedge didn't have a lot of good options. He said some glowing things about Olivo's at-bats that made me cringe. He consistently batted Olivo in the middle of the order. That's what makes me think he likes him in an unnatural fashion given his skill set. Having Jaso just makes the lineup kind of make sense. It's still not good. But when you have to find a place to stack three not-good righties in your lineup, you make it way too easy for opposing teams to bring in relievers that will turn an inning into a hopeless venture for this team. |
| 15. By: Edman on 12-13-2011 15:45:18 It wasn't so much that Olivo sucked, in that most everyone else in the lineup did, which made his roll bigger that it should have been. Who cares about qualification for the batting title? Honestly, is that important? He wasn't great, but everyone else sucking, put more focus on him, than if his bat didn't matter. |
| 16. By: short on 12-13-2011 15:58:08 Olivo hits ok, for a catcher. But Wedge stuck him in the middle of the order constantly. That's foolish. The reason I mention qualifying for the batting title is that it's really only fair to judge a player's stats (especially the counting stats you bring up) when comparing them to other catchers who played a lot. Rate stats with small sample sizes aren't always reflective of ability. All I'm asking is for Jaso to play most days. And for Olivo to be buried in the batting order when he does play. He should play against all lefties and the occasional non-elite righty. He can pinch hit when we need a home run late. He should not be the default starting catcher on this team. |
| 17. By: Edman on 12-13-2011 18:04:10 Jaso will not likely get most of the playing time. I think that's hoping for too much. But, he should get enough at bats to keep Olivo from getting overworked. Olivo was in the middle of the order, by necessity, either by injury or others not producing to the league averages. Had Cust been what Jack hoped he would be, then Olivo wouldn't have been in the middle of the order. It doesn't really matter which of them starts. That's not the problem. The problem is improving the offense around them, so that they aren't counted on to be run producers. |
| 18. By: rotoenquire on 12-13-2011 23:31:03 Ichiro scares me as a #2 hitter. unless he opens up his battign style and gets away form the slap shots. I see a lot of double plays or the leadoff bat getting forced out. What about this Cuddyer rumors out there now? Again a move to just make a move? If we had a definite need in the OF I would say yes. But I do not think he is an upgrade over what we got in house. .270AVG 15-20HR and 5SB's with above average D. I think Wells and Robinson can handle that and there cheaper. Olivo is an adequate C. I think Jaso can be a better over all Catcher. he had a bad 1st real full season and the M's may have got him on the cheap as a result. |
| 19. By: maqman on 12-14-2011 13:40:09 If Johnny Bench was catching Felix and Pineda he would have some passed balls too. Luckily we have spring training to see who should catch and what the starting lineup should be. Cuddyer's production for 3/$30MM won't be that much better than one of Carp, Wells, Robinson or maybe even Catricala can produce. |
| 20. By: safecochatter on 12-14-2011 13:56:03 Yu Darvish thing should be resolved today? maybe tomorrow before the news is announced. maybe that will get the stove heated back up. maybe one of the losers may be calling jack and offering a premium bat for.... |
| 21. By: FatBat on 12-14-2011 14:44:05 I think Carp is headed to the DH roll this year, back up 1B, and OF. No way Jack goes into 2012 giving the full time OF roll to Well's or Robinson. IF they don't work out 4 weeks into the season what do you do then? another re-up griffey and sweeney disaster doesnt sound good to me. As Jack has said I think he is just trying to shore up LF for this year with a Veteran. Cuddyer is not a bad idea, you get a better avg. than Willingham and get about the same RBI's. The Twins were awfulllll last year, injury's and such, and Cuddyer still did his thing. He is well liked. Plus he can bat in the middle of the lineup. Robinson? yuck sticker on that bottle. Not that I wouldnt like Jack to do more, still better than doing nothing. At this point I would do anything to not have another year of rookies at every corner and a over the hill 2B batting 3rd! Not sure Cuddyer would even come here over the Rockies though. |
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